 Good morning everybody. This is a privilege to talk to the August audience here and what I'm going to share with you is the kind of opportunities which India is using within the paradigm of sustainable development and climate change issues and What are the remaining challenges they really need to address? It's interesting that India's Emission is in a better position in the sense that it's Despite being a very large country population wise has only 6.2% of the total emission share and also the per capita emission is less than two metric ton of CO2 We need to understand that what are the factors which are affecting this trend of emission in India I always say that there is a structural advantage for India in the sense that it is 60% service sector and which is less energy intensive Per unit of its output produced. So this puts India in a historical advantage position If you look into the emission trend over the years from 1990 I love this diagram to show because this shows that if we look into this then activity growth in India is Rising at a very faster rate and which is Understandable for the population growth rate and its growth trajectory But we can see that the energy the emission is really not Increasing at the same rate. So they are getting decoupled Gradually and what is really driving this decoupling is the energy intensity improvement and Although there is not much change in the feeble mix, which is so visible here in this scale But there has been a little bit of structural change but really what is driving is the energy intensity improvement and And If you look into the history of energy efficiency improvement in India, then you would see that it's the manufacturing sector which actually was the leader in implementing these energy efficiency improvement and This is another which I show in many a times is that so if you look into the decade of 70s manufacturing story You will see that it was so coupled the growth of the manufacturing sector was so closely coupled with the energy growth Then from mid of 1990s it really started the decoupling process And then you can see here how this is getting divergent with the activity growth So energy activity is growing at a very faster rate But you need less and less of energy to produce the same manufacturing output and that is due to the energy intensity improvement and Structurally also there is shift towards if you look into these then there is shift towards non-energy Intensive industries. So this is really I'm showing about the energy intensive industries and what they are doing So this transformational change has really happened due to several reasons one is the process technologies in the Energy intensive industries have undergone a huge change if you look into the cement industry You can see that how the process technology has really changed completely to the dry Processing and then for steel industry I'm not showing for all but for all the energy intensive industries the process technology has undergone a huge transformation and in that way it has actually Could it could catch up with the best available technology which is the horizontal line for each of the industries in terms of the specific energy Consumption and you can see that how over time this is really catching up with the best available technology in different sectors paper is a different story because This sector is very much dominated by the small paper units. So this this Catching up will take longer time But this has not happened just on its own so there was investment by the manufacturing sector Which they have made the private many of them where private manufacturing sector who have really invested And if you look into these then you can see that if we look into the levelized cost of carbon And then if we want to know that how much they have investment so far For reduction in this carbon emission how much has been spent then they have spent from different ranges from less than 20 US dollar per ton of carbon 200 US dollar per ton of carbon as well So it's very interesting to see that the cement industry which is really leading in catching up with the Global technology has actually invested the most and they have invested in the higher cost category also So this is so so much related to the investment made in different Sectors on the different methods of energy efficiency improvement and how they have really reached the best available technology so We tried to actually talk to the companies also this was all from the I mean the secondary data sources of the annual survey of industries, but then this is Talking to the companies we wanted to find out what is really driving this change So we wanted to talk to them and we talked to a very large number of companies across all different industries And we came up with this, you know the they all felt that to keep themselves competitive in the market They have adopted these measures. It's the influence of policy because energy conservation act was For a very long time in India in different forms and then price consideration of energy price has been rising very fast And then the consumer preference were also changing and the exportability So all these things really led them to Consider not only the energy saving but in different ways so they thought of recycling and they really went into recycling of raw materials and So how they can reduce the materials how waste material can be used so several steps actually have been taken by these Industries and so we can see that it's just not only the energy conservation measure But the renew penetration of the renewable energy technology with their Power generation because many of the industries have their captive power generation also So they have integrated that with the renewable energy technology and there has been energy savings measures of different kinds and They have also changed their feeble policy and they have changed how they can include I mean different kind of coal processing which are less emitting and then how they can replace the coal So all these success stories are good, but then we wanted to know that how we can go beyond that So is there any potential to go beyond that? So what we did was now we tried to take this in your specific data very detailed data At the four digit five digit level industry and then one of my PhD student worked with a GCAM modeling group in PNNL And then we tried to see that what does it mean? So what we do usually is we usually do the Producer behavior modeling econometric models and we try to see that how different feeble inputs are Responding to the price and the technology change So we look into the technological progress parameter That means the autonomous energy efficiency parameter estimate and then the elasticity Estimates and then we try to work with the GCAM model before I go to the GCAM model What I wanted to say here is that This shows how the inter-input relation is changing over time So I would say in 1993 when 1999 when they published our work in energy Journal then we could say that actually the any carbon price or carbon tax Will be reducing the productivity of the Indian industries because they are so much dependent on The energy Complementarity with other inputs, but now we are finding that they are getting in the substitute mode That means technology is changing in such a way so that now if you have carbon price Then actually they will be substituting away from the carbon intensive fee wells because they are ready for that through their Technological improvement and their behavioral responses as well So with that what we tried to do was in 2008 when India government came up with the national action plan on climate change they Tried to look into this market response of the industries and wanted to build in a new policy to Facilitate enhanced energy efficiency improvement Through creating a market mechanism like you ETS so they call it in India as perform achieve and trade So with that path system they created a Carbon so they did not call it the carbon market So they said that this is the energy efficiency improvement certificate market But you can convert it to one is to one into emission because it was targeted at fossil fuel consumption reduction So with that energy efficiency improvement so we wanted to know in the global model if there is a global carbon price What did it mean for the energy efficiency improvement of the Indian industries and where from it will come? so to get that insight to what we found was that if we just follow the Government policy of 2008 of energy efficiency improvement Then this is more so this is without any policy intervention the business as usual energy efficiency Improvement but with enhanced energy efficiency improvement with that scheme we can get this much But we can really pull it down further if there is a global carbon price now the question is Where from this potential will come? So the answer was that the potential will actually come from the non energy intensive industries Which are outside the policy domain right now and actually government is thinking in terms of expanding its path scheme To the non energy intensive industries So we found that so that thinking is in line with what we are also Finding in this direction. So that is a good policy match, which we could see But it would mean that there has to be massive electrification of the industrial processes And in that also the what we found was that all those things can be achieved the enhanced efficiency and the global carbon price scenarios with the With the feeble mix change in the electricity sector. So now this is coal dominated, but it has to be all I mean zero carbon In that sense because these fossil fee well sector is also with CCS and this is nuclear share And this is renewable. This is the model results But if you look into so what we did after that was we took a deeper dive into the power sector itself And wanted to see what is happening within the power sector So what we could see is that yes power sector installed capacity is going up The demand is going up which are just to give a picture of the sector But if you look into the by 2017 feeble mix, then you can see that What is happening is the dramatic increase in the renewable sector? So the model result showed that we I mean that model was set up in such a way So the nuclear share was coming up more, but then we can see that practically it's the renewable energy which is increasing its share dramatically and that's how this is really trying to reduce the cold share and If you look into the capacity expansion, which is happening over past Two three years and what is planned over next five years, then you can see that how different sectors are going to add up to their install capacity and Although we can see that still coal is not out of the Table or for the policymaker, but we have to think what can be done But I'm just trying to show that what is there So this is this is quite a bit of challenge which needs to be looked into definitely and So I'm not just not going with this. So what we have so this is something which is promised in the so if we build the NDC the national determined Contribution which was promised by Indian government in Paris So if we follow the NDC scenario and we try to see what will be the Install capacity and generation by 2050 then we can see that still Thermal generation will be 40 percent. So this is something which we nearly need to be taking care of and then This is only the NDC scenario, right? So this is the renewables will be the install capacity will be 47 percent But then we can see that the renewable generation will be Contribution will be much less or we all know the reason, right? So this is something which we really need to keep in mind that NDC scenario is really not making Zero-carbon power sector for India. So we have to look for further Improvement and that's a challenge definitely which we should keep in mind But what has led to all these changes? This is interesting to see that The policy intervention so market was working but also the policy intervention has happened And so the states where you see the share is more you can see that they have adopted more than so They have taken a systematic approach and then they have Changed multiple things to make the renewable energy penetration faster the states with more Systemic approach have achieved more and with the lesser ones have achieved less So this is something which is important to note and this is some this is something which is also important to note That not everything is success story for India energy efficiency was a real success story because they had a very good institutional structure market mechanism in place and history of Industries responding to market for energy efficiency improvement was also there So they were almost ready and so they brought in a new structure to enhance that But in case of biodiesel mission, it was a real failure I always try to show why they have failed because the national biodiesel mission was really very badly articulated very badly Structured in the sense that while here the price incentive was very rightly constructed Here price incentive was really bad. It could not see the uncertainty in price It could not integrate with the fossil fuel sector where it is going to compete with so farmers really did not get the incentive So what happened was that the 20% share which was envisaged was only less than 2% so this has really not taken off and So this is something which I'm just not going. Yeah, so this is the same thing which I said But success story of the manufacturing sector was also because there were several Supporting factors the service the energy efficiency service sector itself has expanded a lot and there has been different kind of incentive scheme just not the price just not the Pat scheme and the market in energy certificate Trading but then there were award scheme So if you are best performers, so you are publicly awarded and so all these things really led to The good performances in the manufacturing sector So there is lot to learn from what has happened and this learning is actually getting integrated into the New efficiency led policies for the residential sector also So that is also a very successful story But which I'm not going to tell you now and thank you very much Are there any follow-up questions for Joshary? Yes in the frontier make up you hello from Finland As you probably know Finland was the first country to introduce carbon pricing in the world 89 but We have not been very good in keeping it up and the European Union was very good in promoting a global carbon tax for the key of the protocol, but now the European Union does not want to talk even about global carbon tax because Taxing is an issue of national sovereignty How can we get the world to accept global carbon tax? Which is seen as an absolute necessity by many scientists Perhaps you are among them and and James Hansen who is one of the leading climate scientists is also the same view. Thank you To start with this is my thinking right so it need not be a global carbon tax at the beginning But what these studies are showing now is that in all the countries the The huge change in the technology penetration over past 20 years that has happened has Made them ready to take a energy price hike. So let me see it that way, right? So from that point of view each country can have their own system Initially like if I talk about the performative and trade if you talk of the EU ETS, right? So within the EU performative and trade is within India China also has similar systems So many countries have similar system. So I would see that so for next five or six years Maybe it will go this way so every country will be prepared for that and then Gradually you come up with a global carbon price because unless you have a global carbon price You cannot manage the global common bad or good, right? So from that point of view you do need but I would say that Nationally we can continue but encourage national actions in that direction now So there is a preparedness like CDM, right? So CDM was not meant for staying a longer life But then that really prepared a the The different parties to see how they can Respond to a new market mechanism and where there is a carbon trading kind of thing really happens I would say in India that really changed the behavioral pattern and that created an Enthusiasm for the good performer and so they have led the whole process So this performative and trade is also led by them So I think we need to be really looking into the process and trying to see how the new system can evolve So one will have one two questions will go together and answer right here Okay, I know absolutely nothing about the energy sector and energy production in India. So I have two questions one Your NDC indicates that you are going to be Concentrating on nuclear power Can you say anything about the reprocessing of waste? How is that going to be handled in the future and? Secondly, is there any work going on in India on carbon capture and storage? To start from the lot, okay, sorry. Well take a few questions. Yeah, James. It was a really interesting story I was very very made very optimistic by your initial slides which showed how much has already been done without a carbon tax to shift to reducing energy intensity and it seemed to me then that You were essentially saying that this isn't going to be enough and that you need a carbon tax on top of that And I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about what the pushback might be from Manufacturing that is already doing so much that now has to then face an additional cost of carbon and then what does it mean for energy tariffs and And the many poor people who are still in India who presumably the demand for electricity is going up The energy is going up more broadly, you know What is the political economy around this policy and who's likely to lose the most from this this policy? Thank you We have room for one more question My question sort of links to James's in terms of the energy efficiency change that has been seen in India So you mentioned that the significant gains that have been made have been made in sectors where they are sort of larger industries So my question is more around in those sectors where Most of the indices are smaller and maybe it's less easier for them to sort of switch their technologies What support measures can we put in place to sort of help? These industries move towards becoming more energy efficient. Thanks Let me just answer this question first which is most common among all of them is that Energy efficiency measure has already happened so much. So what is more? Incentive so number one I would say that when the enhanced energy efficiency improvement Program was introduced by government of India on top of what was happening Anyway with the industries was the Articulation that it's going to support those industries who are performing better So how you negotiate with the industry association the big industries? So there was large Number of or rounds of discussions. So they were brought in so government did not do it So bureau of energy efficiency was the institution who was driving this and they were talking to the industries quite a bit And they wanted the leaders who were doing better to come up and say that yes They are going to do so it initially the target was negotiated with them So in a sense, I would say that it was kind of incentive for them begin at the beginning for the good performer And so that really created a Trading mechanism within the industries so other low performer once then tried to save on their cost and so the and Simultaneously there was energy Efficiency service companies escows grew up in a very large number and because that was also a Initiative associated with the path scheme. So I think these both of these together so articulation with the industry coming up with the escows and The price determination on the energy certificates really created the whole Business ambience for these to happen now why they will take the higher burden again, so At least talking to the companies we found that they really look for more advanced technology they are always in lookout for more advanced technology and These large industries are competing in the export market. So they want to be ahead of others So that is a major incentive Which they are thinking so it is not about Them taking these but then whatever is happening They're trying to get adjusted because they have historically done that and that is putting them in an advantageous position And which they want to Take it Further so industry associations are playing a very important role in India for this for making meetings For taking them to see what the new technologies are so making all these things are really doing a great job And for the small ones there are like the small manufacturing forums, right? So they are now participating with these large industry Associations also and they're trying to see and also they are collaborating with different universities like in my past university So we were collaborating with them with the technical support that how the small firms can get their new innovation So that in maybe incremental but at incremental step how they can go forward and they are where like the energy Award scheme and etc. Which were the financial incentive from the government. So this is about the small and but they are still lagging behind and But for the new ones they are also thinking in terms of performative and trade expanding it So from based on the success story, right and this performative and trade is now almost there for six seven years So it has shown okay, so just two things so for the nuclear now The real expansion is in the renewable sector So a nuclear is also in agenda, but they are thinking in terms of so there is huge research effort going on So that how you can get the thorium based Generation with less waste and less waste handling problem So these are new technologies which are under trial So when I talk to the Department of Atomic Energy, I get this view But it's more on the renewable sector the NDC is inclined and for CCS I would say that very little very little there is discussion, but very little progress and For poor when energy price is going up. What is happening for the poor? So basically what we need to see is that poor needs to have some kind of separate price So that will what it happens is that if we just look into the basic microeconomics, then it is the market Opportunity will be reducing for them. So you can increase the market opportunity either by the vouchers cash transfer or different kind of thing or You have the price Subsidized so right now the government is going through the cash transfer kind of thing So that you give market access through income generation So more targeted programs because subsidy sometimes just doesn't go to the targeted groups So this is a revision which is happening. So I think that That is being that is tried out in different ways and I think I'm in India is Now more or less with the flow that yes energy price will be rising coal price has gone up So much if I show the graph you will not see the end. So it is happening