 Welcome to the channel. This is reliable Rudy in this video We're going to continue our BTI stock analysis, and we're going to focus on the stock analyzer tool We're going to be plugging in projections I'm going to walk you through my process that I go when I'm looking at Plugging in numbers if you guys have not seen my two recent videos on BTI There's a lot of good information that I go over in that that is going to dictate Why I'm putting some of these numbers in if you have not seen that video I'm going to post cards up in the top right here for the part one and part two for BTI so if you haven't seen those make sure you click on that and Or you can just go to my channel look at my last two videos whichever way works works best for you But but before we get into this video. I'm not a licensed financial advisor Everything in this video contains only my opinion as for entertainment purposes only I have no individual holding in BTI Not even in my index funds. I have no correlation to this company whatsoever I have nothing to gain nothing to lose I'm not trying to persuade you one way or the other if you guys decide to buy this stock based off this video alone You need help you need to go look into the company before you make a decision on purchasing. I Hope that has made very clear to you guys So going into this video. I actually just got done making the whole video Breaking everything down and my headset was turned off Yeah, I know right? I was very upset when I went to my video editing and seeing that there was no volume But that's not the first time that's happened. I need to be better with that But nonetheless, let's get into this video for revenue growth Normally, I like to be my first analysis I want to be a little bit on the wider side of margin and I always think it's good to look at Okay, if the company stays flat moving forward for the next 10 years, what am I looking at right here? Now in the last video I state the forward guidance and the analyst projections now the company for 2022 is projecting 2 to 4 percent analysts are expecting 4 to 6 percent moving into the next three four years Okay, that's that's good information, but I still want to have some margin of safety baked in they can always miss numbers Analysts can always be wrong. I want to bake in as much margin of safety as possible. So for revenue growth We're gonna use zero four and eight. I Feel that's very justified Right and the company's guidance alone just for 2022 and analysts are Increasing that revenue growth going past 2022. I feel very comfortable with these numbers But just in case they're wrong I want to have a low assumption in there because if we go back to the income statement pretty consistent on revenue Let's go to the annual Pretty consistent on revenue if they were to just continue being flat small single digit growth I want to be able to bake that in but remember That acquisitions can always make stuff misleading if we go to the acquisitions tab They are still making it they they are still making acquisitions This is not nearly as big of an acquisition as the one that they made in 2017 But they can mislead financial information in profit and revenue They could be making these acquisitions to to boost revenue for all we know and also before I want to I want to state You want to make sure that the company is getting a good deal for these acquisitions? Are they going to benefit from the acquisition? Did they get the company at an undervalued price? How much of a premium did they pay for that company? These are all things that you need to do and if you don't do that for the 2017 acquisition this huge one 21 billion and You go and buy the company you are doing nothing different, but gambling that is no different from gambling You got to go look into this stuff guys. This is why I'm making the video on it for those people that Requested BTI if you have not looked into these acquisitions you got to look into them and I'll leave it at that I have not looked into them myself But nonetheless if you are making an investment in this company you got to look into those acquisitions Okay, so going back to the stock analyzer tool There is a big point that I want to get across here with the profit margins now Let's say I'm a buyer of the everything money software just an ordinary guy and I were to pull this stock up and I look at these five year numbers and ten year numbers And I look at this one-year disconnect and I say oh there it'd be very it'd be very easy for me to Go on to this stock analyzer tool without doing any analysis and put 30 35 40 percent It'd be easy for me to do that But I've stated multiple times that their five year and ten year numbers are 100% misleading We're going to reiterate that real quick before we put my profit margins in for the company Profit margins stating from right to left 2013 to 2021. Here's our 2017 year now on stock Analyzer comm they have them in 2017 part of their five year numbers 191% profit margins If you Don't go and look at this and you didn't catch this and you go and put some projections in like this You are setting up a value trap for yourself You you were probably going to put some numbers plug these numbers in All the numbers are going to be green and you're going to rush into a position without doing any further analysis Into the company and probably set yourself up for failure Now you you you might profit from it even putting these numbers in in the short term But in the long term this is a ten-year analysis you're plugging in these numbers for a ten-year analysis They could be nowhere near those numbers. Are you plugging in baking enough margin of safety? I want to get that point across because it'd be so easy for somebody this this whoever requested this Perfect perfect example of this because 100% five-year and ten-year numbers are misleading So we've already identified that we've identified that multiple times throughout this even in the like the first two minutes of the first video But nonetheless, we're definitely not going to use those numbers. Let's go over to the stock analyzer tool following that 2017 year 24 and a half 22 24.8 26.5 now like I've said Tough comparable sales in the United States from 2021 how much is that going to hurt profit more than moving forward? But past 2022 how are the profit margins going to be? It's very tough to say so I want to be conservative right here I like these mid-20s. I really like these mid-20s They've showed me post acquisition that they can put these numbers up and it's been a pretty pretty profitable business Moving forward if I go over to return on invest capital I mean in the first two videos, I was very impressed with everything that I've seen with this company and Nonetheless the profit margins right here consistently been around this range the 20 this year 2017 pretty strange year But consistently put numb numbers and it's growing analysts have their their profit margins growing I do like these mid-20s a lot and the numbers that we're going to use for our profit margin are going to be 24 26 and 28 that's actually below three year analysts projections for profit margin I feel I'm baking in a lot of margin of safety right there, and I feel comfortable using those numbers now in the last video I state that I'm going to be using different free cash flow numbers. It's very simple. Why I'm doing that I mean you can see clear disconnect in their free cash flow margins right here the last four years post mark post acquisition 45% 40% 42% 35% 100% reasonable to use different different free cash flow margins here And that is going to change the PE and the price of free cash flow rate that I use So for free cash from large, I still want to be conservative right here And I'm going to use 32 34 36 now. I could tweak those down I'm leaning towards in the last video. I actually had it at 30 32 and 34 But I like it at 32 through 36 if I need to go back and tweak those numbers, you know I'd need I need to see some financial data from this from this next quarter Or the 2022 year of course, but for this example, we're going to leave it at 32 through 36 now for a 0% revenue growth I'm going to pay a 10 PE 4% I might pay a 14 8% I might pay an 18. I like those PE metrics I feel we're baking in enough margin safety if they can put up 8% revenue growth over the next 10 years I will gladly buy this company on an 18 PE Especially saying that I've liked everything that about the company it pays a great dividend with a decent payout ratio Yeah, I like I like that about it now price of free cash flow. We're going to be a lot lower here We're gonna use 6 10 and 14 and I want my 15% return if I'm not getting that 15% return on an individual holding I read I will restate that an individual holding I do not want any single company to determine my the outcome of my career of my net worth net wealth moving forward I preach broadly diversified index funds and if I'm not getting that 15% return I'm not going to change that investing strategy I'm I'm gonna continue dollar cost averaging into broadly diversified index funds and I'm not even gonna worry about it because it's Stress-free. I don't have to worry about anything because 30 40 years down the road the world's economy I think is going to be better And I think I'm going to and that is when I'm looking to retire So yeah, I'm not gonna change that strategy if I'm not getting 15% now. We're gonna hit analyze I know you guys been waiting for this And these are the numbers that we project right here off of this now With these 0% revenue growth it'd be reasonable to tweak these numbers But I'm going to condense these numbers down a little bit now you guys get a pretty good look right here It this this is pretty impressive. I'm not gonna lie Off of first glance if they can put these high numbers up, man There is that I can see why people were project are asking for this stock But yeah, remember they are still a little bit high on debt They have been making acquisitions that we haven't looked into yet Keep that in mind. Please if you are looking at this video and you see these these green marks right here And you're saying oh, I'm gonna go buy it you got to do more research guys and you know I like what I'm seeing right here, but we are going to condense these numbers down a little bit And we're gonna use two four and six that's gonna change the revenue that we're looking for I'll pay a 12 I'll pay a 16. I'll pay an eight pay a 10. I'll pay a 12 and Yeah, these numbers seem a little bit more reasonable for me. It's right in line now They could miss I I can tweak these numbers however I want to get the return that I want, but if I want to bake in as much margin of safety as possible You know, you know, it's all tough to say Now I've been waiting for the time when I'm on video and we actually get are getting more attracted to the price That we're at and right now at 41. We're sitting right in the middle of that basically I'm going to be very attracted in this now I'm going to dim these down add a little bit more margin of safety and we're going to put this down to 10 12 14 6 8 10 And we're gonna add 35 I like that 35 base number multiple five to our watch list if this gets below 35 I want this to notify me because that that is where we're going to dive in and do more research for the company Man, how did I get back to this? Yeah, um, I hope you guys like my take on the video Please do not make any investing decisions based off this single video There is more research that you need to do but nonetheless I liked everything that I seem a BTI and I can't wait to To work on the next video where we're focused on the charting aspect of things to see where these numbers kind of match Up with stuff and yeah, I hope you guys like my take and we'll see you on the next one