 Okay, very good morning. It is Monday the 12th of April brand new week So as per usual with this briefing going to wrap up any of the major headlines that came out of the weekend of which There was very little to be quite honest And then you look at what's in store for the week ahead and it is quite a busy week in terms of the calendar's perspective But starting off then if you are not already subscribed to the to the channel and you're watching us on YouTube Don't forget to hit that subscribe button for daily briefings every weekday morning But looking at the charts here Relatively quiet a couple things to be aware of from a kind of cross asset class mix the Dixie trading a touch firmer Up about zero point one four percent So both major pairs seen just a little heavy albeit just off their worst levels Euro dollar down about 12 pips cable Marginal underperformance that's been a familiar pattern of late over the last week or so as Cables come quite sharply off those initial highs that we saw at the beginning of the month of April Which are up around the 139 hand or looking at cable futures here We've had a retest and bounce off that low that we saw on Friday's session so far this morning Which was around the low toward the back end of March again nothing really too new here from a news perspective I think it's a little bit Trying to curve fit news to think about anything about the vaccination Kind of slow down that we've had with the difficulties of getting the Astra supply and the drug issues that that particular vaccine has encountered I think sterling just a little bit weaker here worth keeping an arm though technically obviously here a quite interesting support point As we trade at the Monday morning open and looking on a daily chart the hundred DMA in cable Has been an interesting level as to is the horizontal kind of area here of support as I said from that mid to late March Support area as you can see from this rectangle and we haven't really traded at these levels since early Feb So keeping on that hundred DMA was acting as a nice bounce of support with that support Horizontally on Friday session, but we're kind of in close proximity of that again And any further dollar strength that we see could well open up the prospectus and we'll wait to come in here into to the cable currency Otherwise in terms of the stock index futures not too much change overall Perhaps just slightly negative for me keeping in mind that you know US equity futures did see a late bid To finish off last week really broke out some of the price activity into the final hour of trade on Wall Street on Friday If you were looking at the charts and actually the all-time high now in the future sits at 41 21 and a half So a bit of the mild profit-taking on the back of that kind of breakout that we saw Toward the back end of last week, which I think is absolutely fine I don't think that should be construed as anything particularly negative albeit the general tone in Asia was Kind of mildly lower in that respect a little bit of unperformance in China and India in particular Being one of the weakest domestic markets given their ongoing worst in COVID situation But so far here in the S&P just finding a little bit of near-term support around the pivot here in the Asia pack session on the daily chart obviously it's Continue one-way traffic really as we continue to move just higher and higher and Definitely on any pullbacks there will be strategic points, which I think will be watched throughout this week So here just looking on the dailies the original push up on the breakthrough 4,000 would then see kind of a resting spot around forty seven two and a half for any pullbacks And then the more stronger level of course being at that 4,000 which should provide a pretty solid floor for price now on any price reversal We see if we did get any profit-taking up at these these higher levels on the weekly perspective For gold pretty range bound for the moment Kind of locked in this this trading band here. I've got marked up with these rectangles So for the moment not looking great deal of interest right here right now Prefer to look at it on the the kind of either end of the spectrum of forty seven and thirty one from the high and the low Respectively that low point being the low we had on Friday, which also lines up with the s1 on the daily pivots for Gold futures And then in oil kind of similar sorry just just monitoring the range bound play at the moment We've had that triple bottom test that we had on Thursday Friday last week just taken out Had a break come back up to that same level now just having a bit of extension on the push down Nothing to get too overly excited about I'd say in the oil market. It's still relatively within that range as well We've got that low that we printed back on last Thursday afternoon just below where we're trading at the moment Sitting at the 59 handle for the time being Excuse me But let's get into some of the news stories and talk about what's going on It definitely is not so much what's going on right now It's about what's going to go on throughout the week as we've got very busy week in fact in store So starting off then with this we did have the Fed chair Jerome Powell speak He actually was a recorded televised interview with CBS 60 minutes that took place on Wednesday But part of that interview didn't get released until Sunday And what power basically said was the US economy was at a quote inflection point With stronger growth and hiring head thanks to rising vaccinations and powerful policy support But the COVID-19 does remain an ongoing threat So at the moment, I don't think there's anything too much to say that this was particularly new information here from power Just a re-emphasis and kind of paying heed to the fact that things are improving But there's still risks on the horizon I think just keeps the Fed in check and remains in a fairly a cognitive double stance for the time being On the COVID situation just briefly A quick update of what's going on there before we really run through the calendar and the individual things to be aware of The US on Saturday added almost 67,000 cases that was broadly in line with the seven-day average However, daily vaccinations across the US hit another record 4.6 million So quite positive in that regard in Germany fatalities fell on Sunday for a fourth consecutive decline Which is positive. However, though if you think about generally the incubation period and the the phases of the COVID virus um That is right at the tail end at the beginning, which is slightly more worrying for Germany at this point Is that the are the reproductive rate is currently at 1.07 and has been going higher Which would be indicative then of future infection Case rises and subsequently could see a bound turning ultimately the fatality count And then the other one is is India at the moment and India is not something I typically look at a great deal, but Just noting then on a global covid perspective India now has surpassed brazil as the second highest global COVID-19 cases at this point in time Has prompted over the weekend States to impose various curbs such as night curfew ceiling of borders with neighboring provinces limiting capacity at bars eateries buses And Yeah, things things not looking great as you can tell from some of these charts here looking at cases in India And then subsequent death counts as well And that has led to the sensex trading down almost 3 percent overnight Which is underperforming the broader Asia packet pack region quite substantially And again, it does does just one final point on this it does go some way to show as well that But obviously the the astro drug is quite pivotal on a global level But because of its it's generally lower cost and it's and it's easy of manufacturing, particularly With its connection to Indian facilities And so, you know, I'm trying to deal with COVID on a global level definitely requires these Kind of areas, I guess like India and other emerging markets that have still got a long way to go before we could see really the general control to a level on a global scale of COVID-19 Despite what's happening more positively in some of the other areas like the u.s. For example But let's look at the calendar Talk about what's going on this week and Monday typically Monday's generally quite quiet Today is no different really and just looking at what's in store Moving on from Monday. Well, actually, no, let's start with Monday And let's quickly and briefly talk about the uk will kick things off there And obviously looking at the key lockdown roadmap dates for the uk. We're now at kind of Stage two of a full step process that the government outlined a few weeks ago And so today none essential shops open as do pubs and restaurants And so that's to be to be aware of It's kind of the the the next meaningful phase if you like of reopening for the uk economy But looking at the uk and what's coming out specifically on tuesday We do get the latest gdp numbers which should show a modest improvement after january's near 3 full Inactivity which had coincided with the initial rollout of those More stricter lockdowns that we had and also with the new uk eu trade ties close rakes it at the time So looking out for a partial rebound here, but I don't think it's anything that's really going to fire up sterling from that perspective But that's pretty much it from the uk's perspective We're sticking with the let's stick with the uk in europe overall So tuesday, we do also get the germans edw numbers We are actually looking for a slight improvement here despite what I just said about the german economy from analysts looking for A slight uptick In in the general zew number to 79.1 And then also if you scroll through this overall week There are a number of ecb policy makers who basically get their final chance to To kind of air their views before a quiet period begins Proceeding their april 22nd policy meeting Christine Lagarde will be among the top speakers she's shared with scheduled in the coming days Focusing though on the us Really because that's where the real focus will come this week in terms of the scheduled events and starting off with tuesday You can see here you get the us cpi release so Cpi is expected to see a significant increase in the us And it's going to jump potentially near in the air from a consistent estimate to 2.4 percent from 1.7 Fuel prices though are continuing to be the controversy factor to that sharp rise in inflation And if you look at the core readings We're expecting a much more modest 1.3 move up to 1.5 percent. So as much as people are Semi conscious of future inflationary pressures I don't think necessarily that the cpi number we're going to get this week is going to be the kind of match that lights the fire however It could well be interesting because This morning or this morning later on in the us session We're actually going to get a double Kind of a dual header from the us treasury in terms of issuance We're going to get the sale of 58 billion in three year notes and 38 billion in 10 year securities happening today This will be at 6 p.m. London time If you remember markets are a little bit tentative given the volume of issuance coming out of the us at the moment and and Lower bids a lack of demand for these issues can create a bit of a spike in yields And if that was to come in and around a time when then inflation Let's say cpi does come out on the high side It could be quite interesting for the yield play and yields could well come back into focus as a spotlight feature for the week Which then dictates them whether or not equities can continue to push up where we are Or if if we do start to see yields push back higher up through 1.7 5 up to 1.8 again Do we see equity start to soften when the dollar has a bit of a rebound Pressuring those major pairs again and the likes of gold and elsewhere. So Definitely could be interesting not just that there's a three year and 10 year auction Today, you also get a 24 billion and a 30 year auction tomorrow And the ft talk about this and I do think this is something which is getting a little bit underplayed But I do think is very important because beyond this week, which is the three auctions I've just mentioned two today one tomorrow. You also get a new wave of 120 billion in supply next week 24 billion is sell a 20 year debt and the week after that Strategists forecast the treasury will sell another 183 billion of securities 60 billion coming in two years 61 billion in the five year and 62 billion in the kind of dreaded seven year so Yeah, we're bracing for 370 billion dollars in treasury sales and is there just enough demand to sufficiently put these through without causing much in a way of further disruption and the potential risk here being that lackluster demand might then create a further upside yield risk for markets And we've seen what that could do consequently across just general short-term sentiment But across other asset classes as well As I said, particularly with equities quite elevated could be susceptible to sensitivity to any upside yield movement this week Going back to the calendar Excuse me. I I can say I have had my coven test results back after a week after they had some issues on their side And and I am negative. So if I am coughing Thankfully, it's just a cough. I know it's been a bit persistent, but hopefully it's not being too disruptive for these briefings Um Going back then looking at the the u.s. Session. I'm going to scroll through Wednesday, you get fed pal speaking at the economic club of washington And then we've got us lots of other fed speakers as well throughout the week and wednesday being one Williams Clarida Bostic all speaking then we go to thursday You do get the retail sales report coming out the u.s. On thursday Expected to rise to 5.5 percent is the general bloomberg consensus If you think about it, these are march figures for us retail sales And we did have a weather depressed february reading And so we've got a couple things here. We've got improvements in weather in march You've got further reopening that's been happening us through that period as well And you've got the stimulus checks that that will well feed into these march numbers So we're looking for quite a sharp About turning the positive fashion the consensus estimate as I said, it's for a 5.5 percent increase in retail sales in the u.s However, I have seen the top end of analyst ranges bank of america going for as high as 11.5 percent on the back of that How important is this type of thing for for the fed? I think well short term sure it could cause a degree of fluctuation in prices when the actual data comes out 11.5 percent obviously is very sharp and it's going to increase demand side pressures obviously in the economy emerging But the fed's not going to really react. I don't think to these Inflated numbers as well namely being because of the stimulus checks I don't want to see this wash out and get more clarity on the underlying true sense of demand As we go through the further months when we get the april may data i'm sure Thursday as well We do see the lights of empire manufacturing industrial production manufacturing production or coming out from the u.s fiddly fed Generally industrial production of natious batteries mines utilities is projected to rebound strongly as well Led by robust manufacturing coming out of the u.s. And then as you can see further fed speakers as well coming throughout the day Then the other thing I just wanted to mention was a few other points moving on to Here which is u.s. earning season Earning season did actually unofficially begin last week There was a few companies that came out But this week's the kind of real commencement of it because you get the three big banks that come out to Traditionally kick things off that being wells fargo jp morgan. They're coming out on on wednesday You also get the lights of goldmans Bank of america city on durs day more can stand it on friday And so it's very much a financials focus Um overall s and p 500 earnings are expected to have jumped 25 percent in the first quarter from a year ago That would be the biggest jump that we've seen since the beginning of 2018 Which if you remember cable the coattails of the corporation tax cut that was in action from trump at the time Um financials are expected to be one of the biggest earnings gains up Approximately 75.6 percent year on year according to analysts expectations So yeah earnings kicking off as per usual How to interpret this well the first few banks are you normally the ones which the broader macro environments a little bit more sensitive to So wednesday is going to be probably more important than perhaps then looking at from a macro perspective than thursday and friday We would get the others because these these first ones were apt as to kind of litmus test for how the overall sector has performed um But i would be expecting these numbers to be to be pretty stellar at this point and If anything just gives further rationale for what's underpinned at already rising equity markets that we've been seeing From a single stock perspective just wanted to mention because it's a fairly large potential deal microsoft msft or in advance talks to buy the ai and speech technology company nuance communications Could be valued at 56 dollars a share which works out at around 16 billion us dollars So we'll keep it on microsoft shares the agreement could be announced as soon as this week And then finally on the calendar side of things just although my calendar here doesn't reflect What it does has got chinese data here. So it was really just friday. I wanted to mention a couple things so tuesday This time tomorrow we do have and we'll have we'll be armed with the latest information from the chinese trade data side We are looking for another surge in both exports and imports in march from a year earlier Covid restrictions were still curbing commerce at the time and then on friday We're looking out for further chinese data gdp retail sales Fixed asset investment industrial production. So we get a kind of data dump from china as well there That we'll be looking out for for more information on on the kind of latest health check of the chinese economy But that is it So overall then quite a few things to account for this week In the discord room There's the full kind of rundown if want to have a look at it or check out my twitter account for the morning note That I issue every morning But that is it going to leave you guys to it any questions at all. Just let me know leave a comment Whether in discord or on the youtube channel. I'll do my best to respond, but wish you a great week ahead Thanks very much guys