 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White. And welcome all to another exciting edition of the Power Trading Hour as we get ready. But what I think is a lot of work over the weekend to get ready for next week. And I think if we do the work now or over this weekend, you will be paid probably handsomely next week as most people are goofing off. But I do digress. Of course, we've got a market that's doing about exactly what we thought it was going to be in the newsletter. We'll take a look, but the spies had an incredibly sharp point at about 442. And so we'll keep an eye on it. The Nasdaq's just a little weaker. We'll see how close the spies come at 442. That would be at least in the S&P 500. The best outcome for the market makers is both the puts and calls. There are the most puts and calls would be out flat. So we'll see. Apple was one of those ones that had a $5 range, but pretty much in the last couple hours that went to 167.50. We'll see how close they can pin it at 4 o'clock for the close on that. So I'm going to say Nasdaq or tech stocks is stuff that's been going down a little weaker. Overall, the bigger industrial S&P 500 stuff, it just kind of... Anyway, we had to drive up on very light volume yesterday. I thought that was probably... we're actually getting more action than I thought we might get. Of course, as many times these three-day weekends come in, the big shots of Wall and Broad in Wall Street, they're off to the Hamptons, especially this time of year, go open up their big homes and impress each other. The B team is in. This is the snot-nosed young folk, probably 35 and under on Wall Street working 4,000 hours per week. They're in and their one big thing is do not let the market get away from you. Slow it down to whatever extent you can and we'll come back. But we're on vacation. We don't want to be bothered. You best not let that market move very fast or very far. You can add a little, but let's not do much. I'm not a big fan of being short. I think, like I said, we're at 4.41.35 on the spies. I mean, this just all day long has been getting closer and closer to my prediction in the newsletter at 4.42 this morning. Not at 4.42 a.m., but at 4.42. The number on the spies. We'll see how close that actually comes in, but pretty good. Probably adding to a little bit of the weaknesses, the bonds. I thought we might find at least a little support at 1.22. Looks like that's given it all up. We'll take a look at that today. This kind of is at least the first projection. Maybe we go a little deeper here, but I thought maybe we'd find a little support and get a little bounce, but it doesn't look a whole lot like that. Some of the other stocks, AMD's down about 3%. Micron's down about 1.6%. Some of the other things are holding up, but as I said, you always wonder are these people that get into bonds thinking it's a safe place to go? And of course, it's not. Everybody wants to run to the back of the Titanic. Apprilly. We're going to talk about that today. But it's all going down eventually. And eventually we're going to have everything. Probably short, maybe energy and gold or something else all headed lower one day. The SMPs, the NASDAQ, there will be nowhere to hide. And everybody will be all surprised, but everybody just kind of playing hot potato with the stinky stuff. And all thinking that there's a faster horse out there somewhere. If it's the NASDAQ, then it's the SMP, then it's the transports. It goes around robin until they finally give up and understand the one thing and that is market, they'd be going lower. But I do digress 877-927-6648. No, I got busy and I had, I didn't have my screen up. I do have it up now. There we go. Yeah, I just forgot. I forget that I forget, which is even worse. And of course, all I can think of is one of the best jokes of all time by someone that passed away this week. And he had a great joke and that was good with Godfrey, by the way. He says, a guy goes into a doctor, doctor says you got Alzheimer's and you got cancer. The guy says, well, at least I don't have cancer. But I always love that joke, but what can you say? 877-927-6648. But anyway, that's it. 18 gone, low volume. I'm not a big fan of being shorted in the clothes. I'm looking for it to drill in. 442, looking for Apple to close at 167.50. And let's just take a quick look and see what volume is out here. 6.3, 6.4 billion shares. So yeah, it's going to be a light day. So we're going to be down a little bit, market a little weaker, at least so far today than I thought. But I don't know if we're going to have a lot of people want to sit on the short side into that close. So we'll see just how close. But if they hit 442 on the spies, my guess is they're going to have a giant party for the B team. And Mr. T probably, he's going to be there with his Mr. T starter set of gold for all of them because they will rake it in. Hello, we'll TLT go. And of course it's TLT limbo on a TFN in Thursday going into a three-day weekend. And that's it anyway. Oh, I forgot that I didn't show that. Everybody always loves the beginning slide. And remember ramen noodles is just alphabet soup and cursive. Just can't read it though. So that gets us set. Let's do a little history and then we'll get right into charts as we said so. And it's all just a little bit of history repeating. On this day in 1912 the RMS Titanic strikes in Eisberg for four days into its maiden voyage. Over 1500 passengers drowned with ship sinks early the next morning, easily avoidable. But of course people always want to dare the gods. It works on that movie and it was one of the things that made us go public in 1998. And I moved down here to Florida. I knew everybody else had drunk on their own food. See you back in a minute. David White is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades. Support and resistance define the ranges in which stocks trade. By understanding these trading ranges, David White is able to find a path of least resistance. David White's trading newsletter, The Path of Least Resistance, is delivered daily before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win. Visit TFNN.com today and subscribe to David White's ultimate trading newsletter for $119 a month and try all of our newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee. Take the path of least resistance at TFNN Educating Investors. The Profile Scanner is the premier market profile-based scanner. 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TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. Toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at 727-873-7618. First question of the day is, why do Verru, is this a big deal for them? And I have no idea, I don't know the biotech side of it, but one of the reasons that we talked about, I think we talked about this yesterday and that I don't, short under there, but light volume on a Friday or on a Thursday going to a three-day weekend, there is a always a chance that you're going to get fake news to drive it up. But one of the reasons I would be very reticent to be in any of these is the last four days of shorting. And you can look at bi-monthly data from the exchanges. But in the short term, that's at least 15, 14 days ago and you don't know how many people covered since then. It gives you a good baseline, but the FINRA data is every day. Now it doesn't tell you how many people shorted and covered. A lot of stocks may only have one or two percent, but throughout the day there may be 15 percent shorts that have been added on that day and maybe they need to cover if there's a bunch of them. There's always going to be some shorting by the market makers to keep a market moving. But I'm not a big fan of getting into stocks that one out of three shares every day for a number of days is short. So especially in these thinner stocks, especially if you're under 18 bucks or so, I mean under 30 bucks, I really totally dislike being short these things and they're actually better for watching somebody squeeze something and you got a little bit of that today. Yeah, somebody in the den, actually Dan in the den, saying he got a positive COVID trial, but everybody else already has pills and shots and stuff. The question was why is it a big deal when everybody else seems to have a lot of stuff before and I don't know. Anyway, that's the first one. Second one was where is Microsoft going to expire out here today? Didn't really take a look at it. I should have, what I should do for this question is go to here, go to here. And I will update the options right now. It takes about three minutes from the download and for my algorithm to run on it. And at the bottom of the next hour, we'll look at Microsoft and see if there's anything that I have. And I thought it was a little wider than that. Again, I'm thinking Apple won 67.50. So what's Microsoft at? 282.59 MSFT. Take a quick look at it. I don't have a lot of volume. I'll have to look at the curve for today, but do they have 282.50s in that? Let's take a quick look at why that data is downloading. So I know. Okay. Options for today. What do they have? Okay. We got 7200 at 280 for calls. You got 282.50 with 1100. That sounds kind of interesting. Let's go look at the put side of it. You got 2000 at 282.50. And you got 13000 at 280. And you got 8000 at 285. So even without looking at the chart, just looking at how many options are out there today. If the option market makers and they can on a light volume day push this around. 282.50 looks very good. We'll look at the chart, as I said, when I come back. And for subscribers this morning, if you missed it in the newsletter, I did put a link to my last big webinar on using options to predict expiration price. And what else do we have? Oh, also, if you are a subscriber to the path, you got the most hated stocks, the ones with... Okay, we're going to go to John. How are you doing today, John? Hey, Dave, how are you? Appreciate taking my call. Appreciate everything you do out here every day. I said yesterday, I was listening to you yesterday, and you made the call on the spy from 440 to 442. And I'm just like, if he hits that, I'm going to call him and congratulate him. I'm like, that was a pretty good call there. So I'm short the cues. I got shorted 367, and then we had the gap lower. And then I usually do two or three bites, and then I got a second big bite in there after the drop down there at 354. So it looks to me like it's... I like to use the price by volume on my charting. It shows over the last two years that the major area of support on the cues for the past two years is from 340 to 342. So it looks like we've had about four days of pound in that 340 trying to get under it. So I'm sitting here thinking, you know, that's going to break here shortly. I just don't see that holding up much longer. I'm thinking, let me put it this way. I'm hoping we get a very light volume move higher Monday and Tuesday. And by Wednesday, we get a lot of signals. I'm going to be going through some charts later. But for me, that would be ideal. I don't always get what I want. Sometimes I get what I need. But that would be very nice. I think we can come back in it. There are several things going for being short here coming up. I think, you know, the company Buybacks, 98% of all companies are in the blackout period for Buybacks, which they can't be doing during reporting period. So you don't have those people buying hedge funds. I read the other days on zero hedge and hedge funds have been selling heavily for like the last three weeks. So there's really not too many people. You know, you got the Fed out of it, but the Fed doesn't meet till the third and fourth, I think of May is when they meet again. Okay. Do you want to hang on for a minute? Yeah, yeah, I got something else. I'll hang on. Back in a minute. Be sharp as minds in the trading world. Subscribers to the Tiger's Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air, and can privately chat with our TFNN hosts live during their shows, interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, subscribe to the Tiger's Den risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee, and become part of the TFNN trading community. TFNN Educating Investors You'll get advice and analysis to help you seriously get ahead. 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I've been trading off and on for 25 years when I have time. It's not something you want to do kind of as a little hobby, which would get you into trouble. Do you remember ever seeing the volatility like we're seeing in the Treasury yields? Monday night, or was it Tuesday night? Monday night it hit 283 and then yesterday the day before, they were back down to 264 and now we're back up to 283. We're talking about yields that represent trillions of dollars. I don't remember ever seeing anything like this. Well, my first four-way into full-time trading was in October, November of 1998. I just traded around there. So, yes, I was in the smack dab. I got thrown in the deep end of the smack dab of the Fed coming out in the middle of the day with Ruben and Greenspan and seeing at the point a thousand point move in the Dow, which is probably, I don't know, equivalent of three or four thousand points in the Dow now. So, yeah, and the Treasuries were all moving. So, yeah, I've seen it before. I wouldn't say that rarely. I was just kind of shocked. I mean, of course, we're just so used to being sitting there for the last 10, 12 years and just being barely budging. Of course, that was all thanks to the Fed, obviously. But the market cheered that the CPI number that came out the other day at like eight and a half percent, I'm thinking, I don't think these people have seen what this is going to do. So, when the PPI number came out yesterday, it's like they just kind of shrugged and I'm thinking, you know, at 11 percent on the PPI, that is stuff that's being produced that's in the pipeline that hasn't hit the consumer yet. And when it does hit the consumer, it's going to shove that CPI in my thinking up to nine or 10 percent. I mean, maybe I'm wrong, but I'm just, I'm like, I don't think, I don't think Mr. Market here is quite really thought into what the consequences of all that's going to be. I mean, I don't know, maybe it's just me, but jeez. Tom in the den says 1994 was worse. Yeah, obviously when the Fed had to run overnight rates up to 20 percent to put a lid on it. I would tell you this though, and it comes from probably the Bible of trading as far as I can say, and that is reminiscent of a stock operator. And after him spending 40 years in there, he says, there's nothing new under the sun. There can't be because speculation is old as the hills. And the truth is it's like I bring up the history every day. It's not exactly it in a copy, but it does rhyme and it's close. So there's something that's happened like this before because it's all about human nature. When things actually, when the brown stuff actually hits the fan, it's happened before and people, even though we may know or think we know a lot more than we did in the past, human nature hasn't changed really since recorded history started. I always love that song, Waiting for the World to Change, and then figure out if human nature actually is and it hasn't and it won't. Exactly. Let me ask you one other thing. How much credence do you give to these astro-planetary charting things? I was listening to the guy, Larry Pezzavento had a guy on his show this morning. I was listening to him. It sounds pretty convincing. I mean, he's got a lot of past data to rely on as to what he's calling for. He's calling to be pretty bullish from Monday to May 6, and I'm thinking to myself, well, we've got a lot of earnings between now and then. The Fed meets on the 3rd and 4th. He said there's like a 67% probability of that working out. I'm like, well, who knows? Credence to planetary astro projections. You have much experience with that? I have tried and tested just about everything in the market. That's what I figured. There is a lot of possibilities. I didn't listen, so I don't know what he said. Maybe he's got some secret sauce that he's not divulging, which if they actually, whoever it was, actually had something, right? They may not want to spill it all. Sometimes they're just great. I've seen people just be great traders, and they will come up with something to disguise whatever it is that they know. And sometimes, like I said, they just don't divulge it all. So when I go to test it, it doesn't work for me. Yeah, exactly. So, you know, if I don't know the reason or what they're doing a lot of times, all I know is when someone tells me something, there's got to be rules. You've got to be able to test it. But that's me. I know a lot of... Have you ever heard of clever hands? Pons? H-A-N-S? No. Okay. Great story. Around 1900, a guy with a horse that could do math. You never heard of it? Okay. No. Okay. All the scientists got together. This guy ran around for, I don't know, 10 years. And he kept saying, okay, two plus four. And the horse would scratch six times, right? And they would do all kinds of stuff. And the scientists were all perplexed. They were pretty sure the horse couldn't add. But the owner was always in the room. And they did for 10 years. They kept on trying all kinds of ways to defeat it and figure it out. They finally got the guy to stand behind a curtain and ask the horse the same thing. The horse couldn't do it. The horse had learned to read the guy's face. Right? Really? I thought you were going to say he was giving him hand signals. No, no, no. The guy truly believed his horse could add. But what we really found out was the horse could figure out by the way the guy smiled when he got to the right number and it would quit doing it. Now, the guy was not a fraud. Right? Right. So is there something in some of these things that people come up with in the trade markets where they don't tell us? Or somehow they know what they're doing. They just don't know how to explain it or tell me. But I've tried a variety of things. And then you try to go back and test it and you find out there's 4,000 different reasons that they give for, well, you can't do this here and you can't do that there and you can't basically untest them. Right? But they make money. But they make money. So the question is, you know, when you deal with that stuff, you never know. We'll be back in a minute. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa, and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property, Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels. 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The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor Four Side Fund Services, LLC. We're back. A question earlier in the show about Microsoft and where it comes out. I mean, just looking at the numbers, it was fairly easy to spot. 280-250 is dead center and wipes out all those puts and calls above and below where there's what, eight times the amount of puts and calls, the strike above and below 280-250. So all I got to do is really kind of keep it there and rake in all that cash. So that's kind of how it works. As I said earlier in the show, if you want to check out my newsletter, especially this morning, I put in my notes on a lot of the wisdom of crowds and using options to protect exploration. So that's a good one in there. And of course all the latest, most hated stocks in the market. You can take a look at that. So we got that. Let's check into the market here. 280-246. We'll see how close it comes. And let's see if I got that. Okay, let's go back to this. Okay, S&P down 20. Is that right? Let me update it just to make darn double sure. S&P down 28. Dow up 70. NASDAQ down 210. And what do we have here? Spies actually a little bit weaker. We'll see. Everybody dodging for the exits. But no big move out here. Earth shattering. Okay, so we got those questions answered. Let me get the other one up here. More questions here. He said if one is bullish, then a low volume sell-off would be good for the news. What do you think is case today? No, we're not closing anywhere near the lows. So, or at least at the moment, we're not. Maybe something happens before the end of the day. But yeah, we're down three more points on the spies. Yeah, I would say that would probably be a good indication. But anything north of 440 is pretty much a bounce off the lows and very light volume. I would say more interesting is the cues can't find anybody. So maybe you get a little bit bigger. You got a little bit more to think about on that side. But we shall see. Like I said, I think we probably get a day or two bounce Monday and Tuesday after the long weekend. And then we're going to see if it bounces Monday and Tuesday on very light volume, I think it gives us a lot more. I'm not doing anything at the close today. Okay, so we got that one answered. Okay, got that one, got that one. Got those two. A question on Tesla. What's going on with them? He just likes to stir stuff up. A very interesting, if you're into the intrigue of the E-suite about what's T-S-L-A. S-L-A he thought he typed. So what's going on with this? Of course, everybody probably seen the news and talked about it at Nazim. I thought in the morning, I thought it was kind of interesting what he did. I think he's really kind of making sure to point out the ineptitude of the current management and the previous management and that they're not so much interested in making stock prices higher as being the lords of information. Every time he does something, it is about proving the point and probably how much better off Tesla would be with better management that we're not deciding to die on the hill of killing free speech. But the thing today is one, now they've got to explain why they're not going to take 54 bucks. But I always thought the same thing, which is that he was going to get just enough stock to be the ringleader when he probably asked next week for everyone of his followers to buy 10 or 100 shares of Tesla and give him the proxy at the next voting meeting. And that would be the best way he could avoid all the imperial entanglements of being in the stock and kick everybody out. Kick all the board members off, do all that. He didn't need to take them private. But I thought that was a very interesting technique to show that the current executives are a bunch of weasels, not surprisingly enough since they're the disciples of the guy before that decided to use Twitter for EVIL. But I don't think there's a lot here to go. I do like... Let's go back to Twitter, actually. I do like the huge short interest is this building. People have been going on it. So, yeah, I think that if you could get back to, like, 42 bucks, I might front-run him asking his disciples to go out there and buy this thing because they have been shorting the living daylights since this thing popped back here on the 4th. So, you know, on a long-distance thing, I have no idea. On a short distance, I think you've got a lot of people deciding to descend on Twitter on the pop, and they're going to be... By next week, this thing may be primed to have a $20 pop, especially if he starts asking all of his followers and he has legions to buy 100 shares. That's all it would take. Give me your proxy. You can go in there and clean house. So, an interesting idea. And Twitter makes money the same way Facebook made money. They sell ads. But I think that's a good point. Elon says that he wants to change it to where you pay 10 bucks a year. And he figures you don't even need ads then. And that would be an interesting thing, going back from free to paid. But, yeah, I mean, probably the most interesting part of all of this is he's going to dump... He said if he gets and buys the company or he gets control of it somewhere, he's going to dump the code that shows how they promote and dispromote various comments. And I think there can be kind of a whole kind of Nuremberg-like trial go on for what these folks did. I think they're kind of backed into a corner because if he actually gets that done, everybody's going to know what they were doing. And if you're a big fan of free speech, you probably didn't like it. So, yeah, I think there's going to be a lot of fun going on with this. You want to make some money? I think maybe a little bit farther down, watch everybody sort the daylights out of it and all he has to do is ask. And everybody will pile into this thing and give him his proxy and he runs the show. Be back in a minute. Watch TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN, educating investors. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. 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Educating investors Catch Tom O'Brien, professional trader and educator, founder of tfnn. Also a special guest on CNBC. Tom will bisect and dissect the markets. The Tom O'Brien Show. Next on tfnn. We return the question what I was trying to get my point across is that I can't prove that anybody else's system does not work. I can only prove that what I tested and the information I got, I couldn't make it work. So I have no idea on other people's stuff. I've got enough problem with my own. So I'll try to do that. Taking a look at the TLT out here. Getting a little weaker than I thought. But we shall see. We'll see what we can do. We'll see what we can do. The spies have now started to break. So maybe we do get that kind of low in here by the close today. Like I said, over 440, I thought that would be something. So maybe we do get the light volume rubbing down. But I'm just thinking, even if we get a nice rally next week, it's probably only a handful of days. In a bear market and a bull market, stocks are higher, three-fourths of the days from the day before. The difference is you're only up a little in bear markets. And you're down a whole lot more on the down days. And on bull markets, you're still up three-fourths of the day. It's just a little more. When you pull back, it's generally a lot, but it's only a day. You're moving back up or two days. There are not a lot. They're sharp, but they're over fairly quickly and then that's it. So there is a characteristic of it, but probably the worst thing of being a bear in a bear market is understanding that you probably shouldn't, unless you've got a six-month window that you're just going to sit on your hands, if you're actually a trader, you want to make your cash. You want to take it. You don't want to be you're not Carrado powder pairs aееels and don't get sucked into being short every single day. It just doesn't work. We're going to go to a three-day weekends. We'll be back Monday. So when you can, not when you have to if we will see Monday.