 For us to get really going to the opposite of, excuse me, to the right direction of higher prices, they're going to compete to compete. Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is having a great weekend. I'm relaxed, I'm fed, got some color this weekend, got some pool time this weekend, got plenty of basketball this weekend, more basketball to come today for the kids, nonstop journey, and here we are. So let's talk about the tape. If you look at the final numbers, right? And this is where we kind of start and end the week. We kind of digest what happened throughout the week, some headlines, some news, maybe over the weekend, whatever the case may be, and we try to formulate an opinion. That's all we can do, right? If you watched Thursday's video, usually there is no Thursday video, but I took Wednesday off because my son had a basketball game, or was it my daughter? I can't remember anymore. Anyway, the point is, if you watched Thursday night's video, despite four days in a row of the market going lower, you know, I made a little bit of a case that if there's going to be any day that the market was going to rally, it's going to be Friday. And that was because Wednesday, they tried to gap down the market down 2%, and on the Nasdaq, they rallied almost to green. On Wednesday, excuse me, on Thursday, they gap down the market, another down 2%, they brought it back to green. And if you guys remember off Thursday night's video, we talked about the semiconductors being leaders, and once the semiconductors got above the 20-day moving average, that was a very, very bullish case, and the question was, where are we actually going to follow through on Friday? And obviously, if anybody's active in the market, you kind of know we had a pretty big move in the market. Again, that was led by the semiconductors. If you look at the kickoff to earnings this week, three out of the four banks disappointed this week was not a good thing, not really a good macro view of the overall environment. The only one that had a pretty big quarter was Citibank, right? They had a really big quarter, and obviously the stock price reflected that, and obviously the financials led with the semiconductors on Friday to paint the tape pretty well. The Dow up 600 points, I believe the Nasdaq was up like 200 and change, but if you look at the overall scoreboard for the week, you will see that S&P fell 1%, the Dow, even with the 600-point rally, the Dow was still down 2 tenths of a percent, and the Nasdaq, despite a pretty decent rally into the end of the week, the Nasdaq was still down 1.6% for the week. So going into this week, and again, we'll get to the numbers in a second, going into this week is gonna be very, very important. You have IBM and IBM kicking off technology earnings on Monday tomorrow with Goldman Sachs, kind of like the fourth amigo, well, technically the number one, but Goldman Sachs, the fourth amigo to report as well, and then you have Tuesday, right? The two big earnings kicking off technology this week, you have Tuesday, you have Netflix, which everybody again believes, and I think the numbers based on the forecast, and analysts are kinda telling us that they believe that another shrinkage in subscriber growth is going to be reported, so you have Netflix on Thursday, and then the big one you have is Tesla on Wednesday. We'll get to Tesla in a second. I had my own personal demons, which I'm still trying to figure out what they were. But overall, when you look at the technology sector, again, it's trying its hardest to get above water, and above water, if you're watching this for the very first time, is that 50 day moving average. If you've been watching this on a daily basis, the vomit's already coming out of your mouth. Again, if you took a shot every single time I said the Nasdaq needed to reclaim the 50 day moving average, you'd be drunk, you'd be an alcoholic, your kidneys would be failing. That's where we are, but that's where we are, right? And unfortunately, that's the reality of where the technology space is, that's the reality where the general speculation money is, and until we reclaim the 50 day moving average going through the upside, it's going to continue to get rejected, just the same way we had this really powerful rally last week, everything was good, until it wasn't because we got rejected off the 50 day moving average and started four days in a row of downward pressure, and obviously Friday the goalie came and kicksaved the market. So for the bulls from the macro point of view to get their head above water, we need at least a close above, at least, okay? I think we need a close at least around 24, right? This 24 level will at least complement this declining slope, that's the 50 day moving average. For us to get really going to the opposite, excuse me, to the right direction of higher prices, they're going to need to confirm 296.75, that was the high from last week, that was the high from last Friday where the bulls got rejected off the 50 day moving average. So right this down, 94 close is definitely a positive step, 97 close is really, really good, and if it starts taking out the supply here later in the week and this supply is going to be a little bit lower, if we can get a close above 98, then you got something to talk about. Then the risk is on, okay? It risk is really on because look how much room you have from 298 all the way to 313. So yeah, I mean, another big week, right? Again, like we always talk about, you know, for the bulls, for the active investor that wants to start allocating real money, more than one or two day rental, yeah, you need some airspace, you need some room to breathe. And again, that 96.75 close will definitely, definitely be a big deal. SMH is again, we talked about Thursday night, broke out above the 20 day moving average, and look what happened the following day, went to the next supply zone for the SMHs. And again, you know, we're talking about baby steps here, you know, you have to be a little bit patient with this whole bull market or attempted bull market for the bulls to really, again, get going for the SMHs. And again, obviously earnings are going to play a big part of it. Next week, you're gonna have everybody, you're gonna have AMD, you're gonna have LRCX, you're gonna have NVIDIA the following, right? You have a lot of Intel, so forth and so on, AMAC, CLAC, maximum. So you're gonna have a lot of names reporting and obviously the future of the semiconductors, especially in the ETF side, is going to be predicated on the earnings, if they're good, if they're not, the shortage obviously is not going to help, but maybe it will, maybe it'll be digested as, okay, we get it, it's a mulligan, the whole industry's having the problem, maybe they'll just kind of brush it to the side, we don't know yet, right? Until it actually happens. So for the semiconductors to really get a lot of airspace, number one, they're gonna need to get above this whole channel here, which is roughly 20 and a half. Everybody see it here? The high from June the 15th was 220.40 and that is gonna be the linear regression line and that correlates also with the 50-day moving average. So for the semiconductors, again, write this down guys, 220 and a half is gonna be a big level on the close and then look at much airspace you have, you have 220 and a half all the way to 235. Just the same way, you see, take a mental screenshot of this, right? So you see how the SMH is closed on the 20-day moving average and the next day follow-through? Look at the spies, right? It's a carbon copy. Spies closed the same way the semiconductors closed on the 20-day and Thursday. The spies, and again, I get it, Citibank was a major, major deal. Citibank doesn't report that good quarter. We're probably not having this conversation but the scoreboard is the scoreboard and the most important part is if the semiconductors confirm this whole channel here, you know, 387 or so we can start, well, they can start, they can start moving back into this upper range here around this 391. For the spies to break out, it's gonna need a little bit more work and obviously a lot more productive quarters coming into this earnings quarter but if the spies can close above 394, 395, you can see this airspace all to 409. So yes, the bulls need definitely a lot of work to do, to really get that open airspace and obviously this quarter is going to be very, very important. That's the catalyst once the catalyst is out of the way, and if they can't reclaim these big levels it's gonna start moving down. Overall, I thought it was a very solid week. I thought Friday was my most frustrating day of the week and it wasn't even a monetary issue. Usually a lot of people when they talk about good or bad days is based on their performance. If you guys go back to Thursday's video, even though I was expect, well, I can't say the word expect, we were prepared, I think that's the word. Nobody is expecting anything, nobody knows shit. We were preparing for a rally on Friday, right? I think that's the best way of saying it. And the number one name, again, if you've been watching this broadcast for a while, you know, this is the sun, the moon, the earth and everything in between for me. This is the greatest stock I've ever traded in going on my 24th year. There's not even close. If there's a top 10 order, Tesla will probably be one through seven, right? In the greatest stocks around, just because of the speed, the aggression, liquidity, everything in between. And I was so focused on Tesla, okay? So focused on Tesla. I really didn't care about anything else because we knew, we kind of talked about this on the Thursday night video and obviously in the webinar and all that stuff, that if we could reclaim the 50 day moving average again, I thought there was gonna be at least 13 to 15 points minimum on the first move. Because again, if you believe in the theory, this stocks trade from supply to supply and then demand to demand, where here is the supply and then this would have been the next supply. You're talking about 726 to about what, 744? So you're talking about what, 18 points, right? So I was so fixated on Tesla that I pretty much kind of didn't care about anything else because again, all you need is one. And if that one is Tesla, everything's a go. So here's, let me kind of break down my day for you on Friday. And again, congratulations for all you guys for trading the B stocks and the C stocks and the D stocks. We'll get to the pivots in a second. But I was just fixated on Tesla. And we woke up this, we woke up in the morning, the futures were up a little bit. That's fine. Again, we were preparing for an upward cycle. And then I started watching Tesla. And I've been trading Tesla for like six, seven years. And it's very, very rare that you see a buyer come in pre-market. So there was a guy that came in pre-market, I believe it was at $721, $721. And we knew that the breakout of the stock, if you look at the Twitter feed, right? 72620 needs to confirm. That's the 50 days, right? So just keep this number in mind. So the buyer comes in for 20,721. This is at 730 in the morning, 745 in the morning. So he comes in for 20,000, okay? At 721, he gets filled. Mind you, it's very rare you see size at that time, let alone showing. You could be a buyer, you're not gonna be showing your size. You know, usually if you have 20,000 to buy, you'll probably show 500 shares at a time. And you'd be a reload buyer at and you keep on refreshing. That pops up in the little two that way. And so he bought 20,000 at 721. He comes back five minutes later, bids another, you know, 20,000, 25,000, gets filled again at 721. Goes to 722, right? This is like at eight o'clock in the morning. This is literally happening at eight o'clock in the morning. This guy's just reloading, reloading. I'm pretty confident he's not reloading the scalpel stock for a dollar. So he's reloading, right? Comes back again. And again, I get it. For every buyer, there's a seller. So there was a seller in the crowd as well. But this dude is just buying up stock pre-market, not in the middle of the day, not, you know, towards the end of the day, not after the middle of the close, he's buying a pre-market. Okay, so it looks like a patty and it keeps on selling it to him. So he comes back for another 25,000 at 722. So this guy, to my knowledge, and again, I could do basic math, 20, 20, 20, or 25, 25, 25 is at least 60, 75,000 shares. I believe so, right? So I'm saying to myself, okay, we got 726, we got 726, 20. This dude is panic buying, right? He's panic buying stock. I get it, there's a seller in the crowd. So again, they need to clean up the seller, but the point is it's showing you there's a buyer in the crowd. And the market opens up. And as soon as the market opens up, they start coming right away in the options market. If you go through whatever option scanner you have, they start coming for the 730 weeklies, the 750 weeklies, and not like $5,000, $10,000. They're coming in with size, six, seven figures. Some dude comes in for next weeks, which obviously is going to cover the earnings, but he comes in for next weeks, 1.8 million worth of premium for the 775s. I'm like, let's go, right? So the stock starts, the market opens up, the stock starts just going, right? So there was a little bit of size at a quarter, 725, took some size there, took a little size there, added through like 20, and it keeps on going, right? So it keeps on going, it goes to like 731. Here is the problem, right? Here is the problem. Number one, I've always maintained the stat, take money on the way up, because you never know, right? This is the stock market, it's so random, it's so unpredictable. Okay, always take money. No matter what happens, always take money because nothing is guaranteed. So it goes to 731, here's the problem. As soon as it goes to 731, it goes right back below the 50-day moving average, it's 726, right? Right below. That's a problem, right? That's a big problem, because the last thing you wanna do is once reclaim a big level, give it back up. And so then it goes back up, 728, 729, okay, here we go, here we go, comes right back in. Eventually, you have to make that choice, you almost have to turn around, this is kind of using a poker analogy in saying, even though you have the best hand, right? Maybe you're holding the best hand. And I thought I had the best hand based on what we saw pre-market, right? What we saw pre-market, we saw the option flow coming in at the open, okay? And we knew how important that's 726. I'm like, I'm holding aces. Usually talk about, here with me, talk about, listen, if you have a 2.7 offsuit, they'll play the 2.7 offsuit market. But I'm holding aces, I'm holding aces. And the problem is, the longer the stock starts building right back under the 50-day moving average, you have to make that choice, right? You really, really have to make that choice. Do I really muck these aces? I mean, I know what I'm seeing face value. I think I have the best hand. I believe I have the best hand. Let's see what happens. I'm sitting there, sitting there, sitting there, and it's just struggling. It's just struggling, it's just struggling. So I kick it out, right? That's the most important thing. I kick it out. It's basically break even, blah, blah, blah. That's not the point of the money, right? And then I watched the stock not go come back. I see the stock sell off 12 points and goes all the way down to like 7-11. And I was like, wow, we actually made a great read, but it was disappointing. Cause you're saying to yourself, I'm holding aces. And oh, by the way, keep this in mind, the market is rallying at this point, right? All our research that we had the previous day is confirming what's going on. But I'm so fixated because of everything that I'm seeing in Tesla, I got the blinders on and everything else. So all these things, right? All these things will get to the pivots in a second. They start working, right? And Vax, this one, that one, they start working. But I'm not in them, right? I don't care about them at this point. I'm watching Tesla and the buyer comes back again. Another 20,000 comes into 15. Another 20,000 comes up at 16. I'm like, okay, they're gonna run it in the afternoon. Yada, yada, yada, they get to like 720. They never reclaim. And I basically sat there, literally sat there watching this thing the whole day. Frustrated as hell, right? Frustrated as hell. Again, you don't need to have a bad day to have a frustrating day. But I had so much conviction in this trade what is gonna happen to the price action. And unfortunately, and you guys are gonna realize this and hopefully you'll trade for many, many years, sometimes you research, you can be right macro and I was, you know, who cares? You're the most followed. Nobody cares, right? The fact that I was right on my research, it didn't play out the play for me from the monetary aspect because it just was, I was just so fixated on one thing. And again, if somebody's gonna turn it on, well, why are we so fixated on one thing? Well, this one thing, this one little thing is the greatest thing ever created. And it was just one of those days that the research didn't match the performance of the stock. And I get it, there was a massive real seller in the crowd. Is that something that, you know, you can try to read into going into earnings. You know, it's very, very tough. Maybe it does, maybe translates into earnings, maybe it doesn't. If anybody thinks they actually know what's gonna happen on earnings, you're guessing. You know, you could try to convince yourself, you know, been doing this for a long time. Nobody knows what happens to any of these earnings, right? Nothing makes sense. The market's not supposed to make sense. Well, good is good and sometimes good is bad in reverse. So guessing into earnings into any stock, especially Tesla Wednesday, it's a waste of time. It's a waste of conversation. We'll see what happens. But just for Friday's session, you know, I was just very, very frustrated. I don't even think I missed a lot. Again, I'll show you in a second. I don't think I missed a lot, but most important, I was so fixated on this one, I kind of let the day escape me. But again, at the end of the day, it's just one day and who cares what happened. So that was that. So let's talk about the rest of the pivots. Boeing, you know, I still like Boeing. I'm actually very surprised it didn't confirm above this level. I still like it. I'm gonna watch it this week. This that 150 levels will be very, very big. That's where it literally stopped. I'm gonna watch this thing. Has a lot of airspace. It was so ironic that some of the best looking charts with Boeing and Tesla really didn't go out, which is very, very odd. Considering Boeing's Dow component was only up 59 cents on the day as the Dow was up 600. So there's a pretty big head scratcher here. NVIDIA, I still like it. You know, went up a little bit, you know, went up to like the 58 level. I still like it. I still think if the market goes, it'll have bigger prices there. Envax right off the open. Again, if you took it, congratulate. I was literally fix it on Tesla the whole morning. 50, if it builds below can flush. Here was Envax, nothing huge. It was just a big, it was just a follow-through from the previous day. NVAX, here was the 50, right? Here was the 50 and went down to 47 and change. I mean, not a bad move, right? Not a bad move. I think we talked about this on the Thursday night video. Nice little move here for all you guys who had runners on Apple, traded right to that 51 level and then it kind of died down a little bit. Nice move in this small, I'll tell you one thing, there was three small caps this week. Had really monster value and really big monster charts. I traded three of them. They were actually pretty good. CLNN for small cap lovers, 430 needs to build. Here was a nice little chart here. CLNN, right here's CLNN. Here took out this whole 430 level, traded up to 485. Nice looking chart. If it gets above that five level, it could probably go more. VERU, nice push here. 1680 needs to build. This thing went right in the afternoon. I still like it this week. So here's, took out the 1680, took out the 1750. This thing starts trading, reclaiming that 18 level. This thing has more room to go. Nice move. I think it's still continuation for this week. So you got this one. I like the Saiga going into this week. Kind of looks like VERU a little bit. If you look at the long base of VERU and you look at Saiga, right? Kind of the same thing. So keep an eye on the Saiga for this week. I like this one as well. So overall, good week. Again, we kind of know where the levels are on the Qs. We know how the levels are on the spies and the SMHs. The key is putting your work throughout the weekend. Know what you want to trade. Don't anticipate those trades. Wait for them to confirm. Because remember, at the end of the day, no matter how strong the market is, until we reclaim the 50 day moving average, strength is very subjective because they can easily roll over and start going the other way. Guys, God bless everybody. Hope everybody stays happy, healthy with a smile on your face. May God continue to bless you all and I will see you all on Monday. Take care.