 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim sawness and dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm where today We are getting you said for the 2020 NFL season and talking about some of the unknowns this year with no preseason games And no fans by talking to a former NFL player That is Orlando's Scandrick formerly the Dallas Cowboys a 12-year NFL veteran We're gonna get his perspective on what all this means from a betting perspective early in the season My name is Jim sawness. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Joined here by a masked up Ed Fang of the power ranked calm Ed The podcast live people can't see this but on video. They can see you're wearing a mask. There's no one around you So I'm curious what's going on here I got inspired by the NBA guys. I thought I'd give it a try to do, you know a podcast with the mask on You know, those guys probably don't have to wear masks doing it But thought I'd give it a try and plus I'm actually really excited. I got some Dortmund gear Dormant team in Germany that Makes my soul very happy to watch them play win or lose because they play such a beautiful style And I really like this mask. It's amazing how much more likely you are to wear a mask If you like it, it's actually pretty comfortable, of course I just took off too because I'm not gonna do this entire podcast with a mask on but Yeah, so just excited about some new gear. Thanks for letting me do that. Yeah, I don't know if you saw this But like in May, I think there was a NASCAR race that Denny Hamlin won and NASCAR's had this policy where like whenever you are outside your car You're wearing a mask no matter what so he won the race and he gets out and his mask is a printout I believe of his face Smiling and so it's like it's him wearing this mask of like this weird creepy Ghoulish smile, but it's fitting because he won the race He said that he was also getting one printed in a frown fashion in case he wrecked and had to do an interview after that So maybe that's the next mask for you at it. Is it just a picture of your smiling face? Yeah, maybe maybe there's a power of mask in the future Maybe Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I think there's a lot of opportunities. There's a lot of opportunities for Supporting your cause with these masks. It's you know, it's obviously when you walk around with them people look at the mask because it's your face The Denny Hamlin one was honestly frightening. So I I have no desire to get one of those but It's on the table. Just wear a mask. It can be frightening. I don't care Just wear one will be all good as mentioned today. We're talking to Orlando's Scandrick You can find him on Twitter at Oh Scandrick We're gonna talk to him about the impact of no preseason on the NFL both We're gonna discuss whether the offense of the defense has an advantage Which teams may benefit with the truncated time to get ramped up And of course talk about his Dallas Cowboys most of his career was in Dallas We're gonna talk to Orlando about Dak Prescott and the expectations for Dallas this year And I think it's helpful because like we don't have data on this We kind of some data on home field a little bit based on other leagues But like it's tough where we don't have data to rely on to know how much from adjustment we have to make for these things Yeah, for sure. I mean, I mean, I think I'm pretty comfortable using what I found in European soccer Because I think that makes a lot of sense and but but I think what really complicates thing is in the NFL is That sometimes there's gonna be fans. Yeah, the team can get away with it and sometimes there won't be so That's gonna be a little bit tricky Absolutely, you're gonna have to like look at like attendance numbers. I there was a during an NHL game They like flashed attendance zero on the board for the hub games, which was hilarious But we'll have to like keep track of that. It's gonna be a headache But we're gonna talk to Orlando about that in just a bit But first some interesting college football news today the Big Ten announced their full schedule Got to see how that looked and I Know that their commissioner said that it's not like just because they put out a schedule does not mean it's a hundred percent They're playing football this year, but it does seem like They're gonna plow through this thing for better or worse and I've I've kind of been pretty pessimistic about actually getting College football for a while now. I know you've been in the same boat, but it just seems like they're gonna give it a try Come hell or high water at this point Yeah, I mean, I think it's been a roller coaster So in in in April and May, I was pretty sure there was not gonna be a season and then in June The COVID rates were low kids were coming back on campus. I'm like, oh well I need to prep. Yeah, and then the explosion of cases happened in late June or late July and everything has been You know, not clear about what's gonna happen because of that And I think if your college football like they're gonna give it a try. I think the schedule is really smart There's a lot of weeks in there to reschedule games You know, it's kind of like what I expect out of the school that my kids go to like I want you to try I want you to try to be in person because this is an important thing You can have a lot of philosophical debates about whether education or college football is more important but clearly college football matters from the money and The question is whether they're actually gonna finish this season and what we've seen from the major league baseball over the last Two weeks is not really encouraging. We've seen two teams have a lot of positive cases The Marlins have kind of scrapped together a roster of 30 people. They won last night. And well, it's nice to be playing the Orioles Yeah, it doesn't hurt. It is nice to be playing the Orioles. So and baseball and football are different sports and in football you have a You know the line play where you have the men who are most susceptible to getting hurt by COVID Engaging the most and face-to-face. So I think that's potentially really dangerous situation I think when you know Hopefully this doesn't happen But if I'm in on either side of the ball ends up in the hospital with with complicated conditions because of COVID I think that's gonna change the perspective on what happens and and I think this applies to the NFL as well The NFL is definitely going to get started with some games And now the question is whether they can finish things given the state of what's going on And I think college football is like there are so many added complications because like yeah, you're on a college campus It's hard to especially when like these kids aren't paid You don't have a lot of wiggle room to like police their activity because like if you're paying them It's it's it's it's interference discussion, but like yeah, I mean they're not paid So how can you say you can't do XYZ and stuff like that? So there are so many extra layers that complicated from a college football perspective where I agree where They're definitely going to start things based on the way they're applying for but it's hard to know whether they will be able to finish and You know, I feel like we're kind of I've kind of been in the mindset with baseball where I'm just like I'm gonna enjoy it While I can I'm gonna sit here and enjoy it while it lasts. Yeah, and if it stops it stops But like I got to get all these DFS. I still got it basically Exactly, I mean Rob Manfred has said that they are going to charge ahead I was in this situation a couple days ago where there were rumors that they might call off the season and people were calling for it Obviously don't listen to rumors But it's like well Do I want to buy the data and start doing stuff with baseball and I decided to and I think they are gonna you know They they are gonna move ahead I think it's gonna be really interesting come playoff time when the Marlins have played I don't know 4045 games. I mean who knows what they're gonna end up at right, right and You know, they they go in and make that 16 team playoff and so Hey, maybe they'll be better positioned for the playoffs though because everybody's got antibodies So there we go, you know, they're just they're ready to rock at this point But I think the interesting thing encourage you think from a baseball perspective is the number of negative tests and the Philly side of things despite playing the Marlins when they clearly had an outbreak going on that's encouraging for baseball I think kind of what you said That probably would not happen from a football perspective if you have Two offensive linemen who would test positive the odds of the defensive linemen or linebackers another team are gonna test positive to Probably pretty high. So I think that there are a lot of complications here Just hoping people will take a smart approach to this and And try to take as much precaution as they can and I guess we'll see what happens. Yeah, and also like Joey Vado potentially had flu like symptoms right or COVID like symptoms and it turned out that he was not Positive so so that was also a good thing. So, you know, it's good that he self-reported Like there have been a lot of cases in baseball where people have self-reported gone on the injured list and Gotten tested and found that they didn't have it like that's encouraging to me because it says people are willing to talk That's also why it makes the Colorado state thing. So frustrating. They're like, hey if you have the slim symptoms Don't say it. It's like no no no no no no no. Do you want your team to get shut down like? Yeah, it's just it's bad So I'm encouraged by baseball the past week or so with no Philly's positives with guys like Vado stepping up and saying hey I feel sick and reporting himself. So that feels better, but still we're on some shaky grounds We're gonna get to Orlando's Scandrick in just a bit But first we had to go back to last week and talk some golf because I talked golf on here and Ed We got oh so close this couldn't quite break through with Brooks Kefka Covering the past All right, so last week here on covering the past I was talking about golf for the WGC FedEx st. Jude invitation on and I wanted Brooks Kefka at 31 to 1 to win it all We got really close, but no cigar and betting or close doesn't count in betting unless you decide to go With an each way on Kefka Kefka was the leader after round number one and he dominated that round He was awesome Faded a bit on Friday and Saturday, but it was still very much in contention But late in the final round Kefka had gotten the lead back He was at 12 under Justin Thomas was 11 under and then Thomas birdied 15 and 16 to get to 13 under so Kefka one shot back as he bogeyed 16 birdied 17 so he enters the 18th and final hole one shot behind Justin Thomas in that hole and Kefka because he can do this because he's a monster Tried to absolutely just bomb one to give himself a shot at the birdie to force a playoff with Justin Thomas Didn't quite get there the shot went in the water He did rally for a double bogey still finished second But so close to banking that one at 31 to 1 hopefully you didn't go with the outright on Kefka You had top five ticket or maybe you went with him to lead round one But overall feel pretty good about that one even though not quite paying off. I think he lost like 2.6 strokes putting so if he'd just been neutral the putter would have been okay, but I feel pretty good about it It was it was nice to have like a positive sweat going deep into Sunday for golf Yeah, I mean it certainly suggests that there was value in what you were giving out last week So I think that's fantastic Watching the golf this weekend with the PGA championship going on or are you sticking with NBA and other stuff? I Am going away with some friends that like golf so I think I will probably end up seeing a little bit of that Okay, there we go. So maybe although there's a lot of these guys like soccer too So we might just have Champions League on so you start Champions League in the morning and then watch I think they're in San Francisco this week So you watch Champions League in the morning and then just transition to golf later. Yeah, there we go All right, we'll get to Orlando Scandrick here in just one second But for years number fires premium subscription service has provided our users with expert analysis Survivor pool tools and most importantly the fantasy football draft kit all for up to 49 99 a month now as a way of saying Thank you to our community for years of support number fires rolling out a new premium package for just 999 a month Will with all these sports betting and daily fantasy tools You need year-round the best part is that expert analysis those survivor of tools and yes Even the draft kit are now free my rankings along with those of JJ Zachary's and Brandon Kedula are now free head to number fire Dot com check out the new and improved site and take advantage of the new premium package Let's bring on Orlando Scandrick now find him on Twitter at Oh Scandrick a long time NFL veteran played with the Eagles last year But mostly played with the Dallas Cowboys We're gonna talk to Orlando about the impact of no pre-season the impact of no fans and just trying to get a player's perspective On what all this means from a betting perspective for the 2020 NFL season Covering the present Let's bring Orlando Scandrick into covering the spread to talk some NFL for this fall Orlando We appreciate you taking the time to come on today. How are you doing doing good? How are you guys doing healthy outstanding? Yeah, it's it's going to get to talk to you because Orlando like we work in like a numbers driven world But like we're kind of going into like this weird territory where there aren't any numbers to like base our analysis Also off of when it comes to getting set for this NFL season So I'm ready to hear your perspective on that all this but first of all How have things been going for you for the past couple of months with all the the wildness has been going on in our World just trying to stay busy trying to stay productive It's tough. This is we're in like unforeseen waters, but it's tough as far as the season goes It's gonna be interesting. I think everyone's excited. You see like the amount of people that's watching basketball the ratings I rather up 14%. I think it'll be the same for football if not more Yeah, absolutely Did you take up any new hobbies during the quarantine time to keep yourself busy or just kind of you know Trying to make do with other stuff. Um, I've taken up some new hobbies connect for Jenga Uno things like that Are you are you dominating in these different games? Or is there a specialty for you yet? No, we're not really, you know Cuz normally in connect for everyone has their own little style and yeah Oh when the game goes on you kind of get away from your style and then before you know, you give up a easy four Yeah, I mean you got to get in your groove. All right So that's that's the goal for for you Orlando for this football season is to hone in your connect for style and your game and Evolve there for sure, but let's talk some NFL with you Orlando Well, we got here because again, like I said, we got a lot of unknowns heading into this year And I think the one of the biggest ones is the impact of no preseason And I want to hear your perspective on this because you would know a lot better than us the impact of that as a player How do you see that impacting the on field play? Especially early on in the season as a veteran player of no preseason. I think it's great. You get a lot You get a lot of it's a it's a meaningless game You normally only play a series in the first game two series in the second and the third game you play about a Quarter maybe a half and then a fourth game. It's kind of meaningless But the counter to that is for young players some players You're not gonna get a chance to see them in game action You know those players that are like those gamer types and so the coaches are gonna have to do a great job I'm putting people in game like situations Yeah, for sure. So, I mean with the fewer Preseason games I'm always interested in whether you think the offense of the defense has an advantage, right? Like is I don't I think it's pretty even but I mean, I think defense is I guess allegedly tend To move faster along, but this is an offensive German League. So Right, you know, I don't I don't think no one has an advantage. Just what team prepares the best It's what team has as the most kind of cohesion as a unit and you know, which team has a veteran quarterback This is a quarterback driven league and teams go as their quarterbacks go Well, one thing you mentioned that, you know, we're not gonna get see a lot of rookies So that kind of puts Cincinnati who I think is planning on starting a rookie out there at the quarterback position really behind the April right, I mean Joe girls wasn't gonna play much and Joe was wasn't gonna play much in the preseason anyways if he was gonna be your starting quarterback So they're gonna have to do a great job at game like situations and practice and you know You're gonna have to expect for him to take some rookie bumps and bruises and you know, his biggest thing that he's lacking right now is experience Yeah, so you mentioned that it might be a downside for rookies to not have the preseason not have all that experience Do you think that veteran teams will be in a better position to go from the get-go at the beginning of the year? Like are you thinking the more experienced teams may have the leg up early on? I don't I mean Because what would you say as a veteran team like for example? I mean there aren't any because I feel like the NFL is so driven by rookie contracts now and driven by young teams You're probably right. Like are there any even? I mean, of course, there's some teams that have been together and some teams that you know I'm normally playing together, but I don't I don't think that's a competitive advantage Just because every season is a new season, you know, the biggest thing about the NFL is being healthy The teams that play the best together and the teams that make the least amount of mistakes. Yeah, absolutely So if you were to look at certain types of teams that may do well out of the gate Are there any teams that you think are poised to come out the gates firing with no preseason games on the docket this year? I mean, I think the Chiefs, you know, they're just they've been together for this is gonna be the third year going on you know, they're returning out of 12 starters, I think yet running back opt out They lost that a guard opt out, but it's gonna be 10 out of 12 starters, maybe nine out of 12 starters. So I think that they you know, they'll click I Think there's other teams that you know the kind of question marks like the Dallas Cowboys gonna be a new offense new scheme new coaches That's gonna be a challenge for them Yeah, absolutely I want to talk a little bit about the cornerback position. You played it. You played it really well I think it's one of the most irreplaceable positions on an NFL team What why are there so few good cornerbacks out there? Why are they so hard to replace? It's a totally offensive driven league, you know, the rules are centered around the offense The rules are centered on the receiver. There's so many different illegal contact defensive holding defensive passing interference There's just so many different things, you know, when you throw a ball like three things can happen. You can catch it You can be going complete. You can intercept it. You can get multiple penalties. Yeah, right? And you kind of had this unique perspective on it because you played for 11 years Which means you kind of played in in different like different eras 12 years. Sorry not trying to shortchange you You want to give me 11 because you see the 2018 through I mean 2008 through 2019, but that's 11 years with 12 seasons Exactly. So 12 season, which means Orlando you played like two different eras like 2008 versus 2019 like that was really different How tough was it for you as a cornerback to kind of always be evolving with the changes that the NFL would throw your way from a rules perspective? Cornerback you just have to learn how they're calling the game. It's just a tough position If you want to go back to 2008 it was a more of a two-side in two-back, you know Three receiver set when it was when it was passing downs, but here in 2018-19, you know, it's all Three receiver sets for super sets. It's a more a pass and driven lead But it's just one of those things where you can play 60 plays and have 58 great ones and two bad ones And the only thing people remember is the two bad plays. Yeah So Orlando Would you say like I mean how much playing cornerback is your physical athletic ability and how much is the mental game? You know stuff that you just talked about not letting bad plays Get to you and then also like a film study and knowing what the offense is gonna throw at you I mean at the NFL level the talent level the difference between good and great is so minute But it's one of those things that everyone has physical athletic ability But mentally you have to be there mentally you have to be honed in every play You have to go out every play and take it one play at a time. So I would say it's definitely a mental Definitely way more mental than it is physical That's really interesting I want to talk one more thing about the the changes we have Heading into this year because it's not just that there's no pre-season games We also have most likely I would assume no fans You know, I'm going in assuming that there will be no fans here and that can change a lot of things in Orlando We've been trying to decide how much weight you want to put on home field advantage now with the fans not being there Because fans clearly in a lot of places make a difference So how much an advantage do you see home teams having once we take the crowd out of the equation? Something home teams have advantage, you know a row team starts to get on the plane It's tough to fly somewhere stuff to stay in a hotel the night before Stuff to eat in a hotel the night before so it's it's just It's just different and mentally it's different But the covid things with both teams staying in hotels with teams saying that they're gonna bust from two and front hotels I think it's gonna kind of even the plant bill But it's you still get into the fact that when you get a team that Get minnesota and they go to green bay and their dome team and they're playing outside Or you get the cowboys and they go to philadelphia in december and it's cold It's you're still going to get those type of advantages and disadvantages And I just think the crowd is not going to be a factor But maybe like they're doing an MBA. They'll use some simulated crowd noise and some things like that And I think the one thing that's interested me at least is that It seems like there's been a change in the way that teams Address travel, you know, we've seen teams staying out on the east coast more often that they're traveling out there for consecutive games Was there a change that you saw in the way that teams travel trying to take, you know Sports science into account and stuff like that. Was there a way a change in the way people traveled? I don't know. I played in dallas So we're in the middle of anything the longest flight that we had was to new york, which was three hours And we went to the west coast, which was Maybe three and a half four hours. So we never were one of those teams that stayed multiple days I don't think that that's I think that that's a disadvantage of anything I think you just stayed a routine, you know, you handle the situation as it comes Excellent So ralando, I grew up in philly. I'm not liking the cowboys so much So I kind of wish you would have played more with the eagles and less with the cowboys But you obviously know these cowboys really well They're 17 to 1 to win the super bowl and minus 105 to win the nsc east What are your expectations of dak prescott and this team to see here? I expect dak to continue so I can get better. I expect the team to Come out and play hard for coach mccarthy. It's a new voice to have a lot of talent around and Obviously, I've never been a fan of futuristic vicks, you know, it really really hard to pick But I mean, I do see them having a great chance to win the nfc east if they can stay healthy Philadelphia suffered a big blow in their provoked guard being out for the year Obviously, their receivers are going to be younger. Um gashan is going to be coming back off of injuries. He's fully healthy But it's when do you get back alshan jeffrey? It's Ken Carson would stay healthy again. It's also Ken myosanners take the next step And you know, you just want to see if philly's defense can pick up where they left off being dominant like they were at the end of last season Yeah, absolutely I think that the the eagle side of that is super interesting But you also talked about the cowboys earlier orlando and saying that with the transition to the new coaching staff You were you might be worried about getting that new offense in place Does that concern you at all at the cowboys knowing that they are making a change after being with jason garrah for so long I don't know what concerns me is they're gone from being a power run play action team to who knows what Whatchamacart is going to be he's had a year. He's had a year off. He's got to evaluate himself He's also had some A great amount of time to evaluate his team and to you know, just to see what type of team they plan on being this season Yeah, absolutely. So that should help for sure. And I think I agree Dak has proven himself at this point where we can have quite a bit of faith in him You know leading this cowboys team, let's take a look broader here Any other teams you think could outperform their expectations from a betting perspective this year based on the odds over at fandall sports book I want to say I think that the broncos are going to be better than what people think they are Are you a drew lock believer you bind into the the additions they made on defense this year What draws you towards Denver? They're gonna have a healthy Bradley chub. I'm a healthy Bob Miller. I think another year in the scheme Um, they're gonna have they've added a running back. That's a dominant running back when healthy and Melvin Gordon And just to receive that off the The receivers they've added the weapons. Um, Jerry Judy kj hamler to add with courtland Sutton And you know just to have that running at Yeah, interesting Orlando before I ask you about defensive player of the year, um as a cornerback who Who did who did you least want to cover out there in the NFL in your 12 years in your 12 seasons? Um, I have some tough covers but Calvin Johnson. He was just a full package. He was big. He was fast He was strong He was a full package He's literally the best receiver that I've ever seen with my own physical eyes Did you throw a little party when he announced he wasn't going to be uh playing going forward? No, not at all. You respect the healthy competition and you would just respect Him as a man and him as an athlete and what he has done to the NFL when he brought to the NFL I mean, he's definitely one of a kind Yeah, I I can't imagine having to cover that that combination of size and speed like that just sounds Like an absolute nightmare all across the board. Uh, so let's talk about defense because obviously You know a lot about defense. You know a lot about the individual defenders, uh defensively Aaron donald is a favor right now to win defensive player of the year He is plus 750 over at vandal sportsbook Anybody stand out to you as being a good bet to win that award any defenders You're eyeing as having a chance to make a big surge this year Just looking for it to see in the NFL Or the whole season Um, also looking for it to see his brother nick bosa So, you know, we'll see then miles Garrett again, but defensive player of the year so much depends on the best defensive player on a really good team I wanted a better defensive teams and I don't think that Aaron had Less of a productive season last year But I just think that the numbers that the Patriots were putting up and what Stefan Gilmore was bringing to the table Is why he won defensive player year So when you were watching Stefan Gilmore last year Like what made him so good that he was able to win that award. What was he doing? That was so special that gets that level his team was phenomenal, but he was winning his individual battle Game in and game out play in and play out and he definitely deserved it. He's a special talent He's a tall long cornerback. He's got great technique. He studies me. He truly wants to work and get better every day Who are some of the players you studied when you were coming up? Like who was the the model for you when you were trying to hone your own craft when you were younger? This is really not a model. You know, the best competition is in the mirror Can't get caught up in trying to be someone else, you know, everyone has different attributes You need to find out things that you do well and perfect them and just be the best you can be every day Sounds like a winning formula So I want to ask you one more thing about Stefan Gilmore because you know like in his first season in New England He he kind of struggled He wasn't the lockdown corner that they kind of signed him to be Did you notice like a change between those two years or or I don't think he really struggled at all. I think um You know, sometimes things go your way and sometimes things don't but I If I remember his first season they went to the Super Bowl Yeah, I don't think yeah. Yeah, it's not bad, but I mean he wasn't but to expect To expect him to do what he's done every single year is expectations are high And I think sometimes we put expectations on people based on the amount of money that they make Yeah, and that's tough. It's tough to live up to those things, especially when you're going to such a High profile team like that the expectations are gonna be huge I just think it's it's very easy for people, you know, being in the media now to say this person is overpaid But we have a hard time saying this person is underpaid and he's definitely not paid the amount of The best even as a player in the league right now, so Maybe we can get you a hooked up to be his agent like that could be the next gig That's your new hobby for for quarantine. No, not at all. I mean Steph are good friends. We speak often, you know I Myers play and I've let him know that and um, I just come from a player's perspective every it's so easy for people to say This person is not living up to the expectations of their contract But we have a hard time saying this person is underpaid Well, at least put put your words in in the reel for his next contract negotiation We'll make sure they hear it I don't I don't think at all But I was just kind of combatting and kind of playing doubles advocate to the first season He didn't live up to the expectation. Sure. Absolutely. Yeah, absolutely Especially yeah, like you said like sometimes expectations just gets you high now. He's defensive player of the year What war can you ask for any other players? You're keying in on for this year Orlando is who you think could have big seasons in 2020 Um, not really. I'm trying to sit back and you know be a fan. Obviously. I'm gonna see how Ezekiel does I always watch see he's been dominant. I don't think he gets the amount of credit I don't think he gets the The rating when it comes to where he is at and running back to the league and what he's been able to do year in and year out Is it weird for you to not be in training camp right now like do you have an itch at all or no? Done with it over it I've played football for Over 25 years of my life. It's okay Enjoy your rest then Orlando. Enjoy the time off. Let your body heal a little bit and just sit back and relax That is Orlando Scandrick Orlando. We appreciate you coming on today Thank you for answering a lot of questions that we had about just how the season will work and enjoy being a fan this year Thank you Covering the future All right, big. Thank you once again to Orlando Scandrick for swinging by and talking about the nfl for 2020 And Ed, I like the questions you had about playing cornerback and all the factors that go into it And it was good to hear his perspective on it because he's a guy who kind of you know He came in as a young dude, but also played for a really long time He needed a lot of different diverse skill sets to last that long in the nfl Yeah, and I I wasn't just trying to pump up our guests by saying i'm obsessed with cornerbacks I am actually obsessed with cornerbacks. I think they are some of the most important guys on your football team and it was really interesting to hear him say how much he thought the mental side mattered and You know, I guess there's a lot of good athletes out there that can That have the ability that that have the quickness and speed But it sounds like the mental game is is a big part of it and You know Richard Sherman used to write for a sports illustrator somewhere else And he used to talk about how he prepared and how there are so many guys that were more athletic than him But he got his edge from film study Which is certainly part of that mental side of the game Um, so yeah, I find all that stuff fascinating. Um, you know, I mean, I I it was great that we had a cornerback on It'd be interesting to ask other positions as well Um, I know a lot of linemen that think the mental side of the game is is very very important If you could have been an nfl player, what would you have been a cornerback? Like if you could choose Me yeah, I think I would have been the quarterback with no arm strength Okay, because I can squeeze like I can squeeze a short pass into Tiny holes. I was gonna say you could be Jake from but then I realized we you know, Jake from's kind of he's had a He's done some dumb stuff the past couple of months. I'm not going to compare you there We'll say late career drew breeze. How about that? Yeah, or like, you know, like your Chad Pennington's that described as having a water pistol Are you saying uh, Chad Pennington, uh, is is your flavor as I hold up my Chad Pennington figurine? It's on my desk here. There's waiting for his opportunity I think I've had Chad Pennington like 15 different video calls ever since I put him here I pick him up whenever I can usually it's not because someone else brings him up though. Usually it's me Who doesn't know? I just remember Chris Chris Carter. He was a commentator. Yeah, he's like, why don't you like Chad Pennington? And he said the guy has a water pistol And I was like, I think arm strength. I still I mean You know all things being equal like do you want arm strength? Of course you want arm strength Sure, but accuracy is so much a big deal Especially like the higher up in the levels of football That that you get into so as someone who is forced to watch 16 josh allen games per year. I agree Absolutely agree. I think I think it was great to hear a cornerback's perspective I would love to hear what a center had to say because like there's so much The mental game involved there too and it requires so much Communication and stuff like that. I'd want to hear what they'd have to say about the impact of no pre-season games Because it's obviously important for Orlando too because like you have to be it synced up with the safeties You have to know what the linebackers are doing And there's so much involved there but on the offensive side I think center would probably be the one that would interest me most there So appreciate Orlando swinging by providing that perspective Eddie did have a couple of strip sacks for your Eagles back in 2019. So Uh, he did contribute to the Eagles even if it was mostly against them for the other season Exactly. He just has to flip his time between Dallas and Philadelphia Would have been fine. Absolutely. Let's move now into covering the future for this week Ed, we are about two weeks into the MLB season if I am Calculating this correctly almost two weeks in For some teams or five games through the Marlins And that means we can start to at least look at some data that's been popping up in that time What are your numbers saying based on the early data across baseball? Yeah, so I what they're saying is some teams are lucky and some aren't and I'm going to pick on one of your teams Jim so I can't wait to get to that. Uh-oh, but But it begs the question like how do you find value in major league baseball? And um, you know, my predictions aren't you know, my major league baseball predictions that are on the public part Of my son aren't as good as my football ones, but but they can find value And it's based on the idea of cluster luck So the idea is that you know, if you if you have nine singles in a game You're going to score a lot more runs if you put them all in one inning as opposed to scattering them over one each in nine innings And in in order to calculate this cluster luck I take something called a base runs formula that was developed and essentially this formula Uses underlying Numbers like homers singles doubles walks, etc In order to break predict an expected number of runs a team should have scored And then your luck is simply how many teams around a team have scored Compared to that expectation based on base runs And so that excess is cluster luck if if on offense you have a lot more runs than what base runs expect You've been getting lucky and then you can also do that for your defense as well And the idea here is that you know, your cluster luck regresses to a mean of zero pretty quickly There isn't a lot of skill involved in clustering of hits And then it goes back to the whole notion of clutch hitting or clutch pitching You know, there isn't a lot of evidence that that exists in baseball so the team You know the minnesota twins Far off to a hot start Plus 27 and run differential. Uh-oh, but the cluster luck says about 17.6 of those runs are So, you know, they're probably closer to a 500 team Obviously if you would have bet against them yesterday with Pittsburgh, you Would not have done so well because minnesota definitely won that game But it's an example And you know if you so my numbers account for cluster luck in the sense that they use this base runs formula to figure out How good a team is there's a little bit of like actual runs in there as well But it's really it's interesting like at this point in the season when you have such small sample size There are with just pure runs. There are teams that are like three runs I think the dodgers were three runs better than major league baseball average and the worst team was, you know, three runs worse with Uh, the expected runs based on this base runs formula It's much more what you would expect like a run and a half as the top team and most of the teams within a run of of average so My numbers account for that and you know, all my cluster luck numbers are on the public part of my site so the idea is like look at that table see if See if a team like the twins is being overvalued in the market And it hasn't really been that much lately But it's something to keep uh looking for as you go ahead Um, and then, you know, if they are being overvalued that might be a spot to go against them On the other side, you know, the Mets are the Mets fans might want to still have some hope They're minus 17 in run differential But about 12 of those are poor cluster luck or bad cluster luck and this is calculated for both offense and defense Um, Seattle was down there as well So there might be some value in embedding on Seattle or that's a tough proposition given how poor we expected them to be at the beginning of the season So and you know, and then teams like the Dodgers are off to a great start and their cluster luck is near zero So that suggests that they're they're a pretty good baseball team I mean, I would try to push back against the twins But when your rotation involves randy dobnak who has his uber rating and his twitter profile It includes Lewis Thorpe Um, it includes like all these dudes who like if you're not a twins fan You probably or a Yankees fan, I guess for for randy dobnak They he he just bashed like Yankees fans on twitter because they were talking about his uber rating It was weird. Anyway, if you're not a twins or a Yankees fan You probably have not heard a 60 percent of the twins rotation right now So like the fact that they're eight and two I realize that's luck and I am not going to push back on that They definitely have gotten Fortunate with a lot of different things But I mean When you look at the numbers like five of those 17 runs we're on the the defensive side of the ball Yeah, and 12 we're on offense. So so it's like the offense is Contributing more of the cluster luck at this point. So and obviously they have a lot of talented guys That take the plate for them. Yeah Byron Buxton's back though Ed so nothing matters Everything's good like they can lose the rest of the season. They could finish eight and 52 But if Buxton plays most of those games, I'm good I'll be still be happy and I bet the white sox to win the division side be even happier My wall would be happier too. So uh, no complaints From that perspective. I'm sure we'll talk more about baseball as the season goes along too It's it's good to get that check in because even early season data can be impactful And it can tell us give us signals for where regression may hit going forward I want to go back to golf for this week for my cover in the future The pga championship is starting tomorrow the first major of the year and there are a lot of big names in this field Obviously because it's a major you've got everyone here, but I want to focus on a young gun and that's victor hovland Hovland is 45 to 1 to win And I think that's probably a hair too long because one of the keys for this week will be Getting a golfer who can combine distance and accuracy and tpc harding park is long for a par 70 So you do need distance from that perspective, but it also reportedly has punishing roughs So if you miss the fairway, you will be in a bad spot So i'm trying to find golfers who have both distance and accuracy and hovland is one of those guys Ranks 55th in the field in distance over the past 50 rounds according to fantasy national He is also 36th in fairways gain, which is their uh field adjusted accuracy metric when you add it all up Hovland ranks fourth in this field in stroke skiing off the tee and fifth in approach over that 50 round sample So the ball striking will be elite and that's always the most important thing when it comes to golf The big shortcoming for hovland in general is his putting and that matters in a major because you can't really have major holes in your game If you want to win against this type of field But in a small sample hovland has not been as bad of a putter on bentgrass, which is uh this week's surface It is a bentgrass putting surface in fact Hovland's numbers are minorly positive on the surface in a 33 round sample now I'm not sure that will stick But if you give me 33 rounds of minorly positive sample versus 33 rounds of really really bad sample I'm going to take the 33 rounds of minorly positive and say that that is at least better than him being bad Even if it's not predictive of what he'll do going forward I've also seen hovland make pushes in majors before he was uh He did make the cuts at the masters last year when he was just coming out of college Actually, I think he was still in college at the time finished 32nd there. He uh made major noise at the us open finished 12th there So at 45 to 1 I think he's a pretty good value bet If you want a little bit more leeway in case the putting does not pan out for a full four rounds I think that hovland is interested to lead round one. He is 50 to 1 there He is also plus 4 30 to finish within the top 10, which again gives you more wiggle room if the putting does not pan out So you've got options. I check them all out over a vandal sports book But this is a good tournament to go in on victor hovland at 45 to 1 to win this weekend So maybe you can uh get up a bet with uh one with your with your friends who like golf and see if you can Get them into a victor hovland bet this weekend Yeah, or maybe I'll take him hovland straight up against someone else Yeah, I mean you can uh his group betting on fandals tough I think he's in tommy fleetwoods group and I like fleetwood too, but uh if you can uh Manufacture your own bet of victor hovland versus someone I'd be interested in that Well, and those bets are the best, right? Yeah Where you can get someone who's like really fired up about So-and-so player and so-and-so team and they'll give you like five points Off with the market right gonna give you you know like my friend that wanted to set the Pittsburgh Pirates win total at 10 wins this year Or maybe 15 Yeah, those are the best bets man. They're just absolutely absolutely. Um, I unfortunately do not do not have enough people in my life Who are willing to do that? Um I I Uh, I don't know consort. Is that the right word? I hang out with a lot of people don't like sports So like I can't I can't get these advantages in my life and I'm stuck like You know, I just I don't get I don't get that those advantages and it's uh, I feel like I'm missing out Yeah Well, yeah Yeah, these these for those of you listening out there. This is definitely the way the easiest way to win sports bets Bet against your friends find a friend that is willing to give you some number That's like way off the market Maybe I can I have a friend is a big Yankees fan Maybe I can get him to to bet me Aaron judge versus the field for MVP. He might take that one So, uh, I'll check back Next week because even even like Yankees World Series versus the field. Okay. Yeah, that would work too I think either of those but judge versus the field like come on like Yeah, I think he might actually do that one So I'll check in and I'll get back to you had to see if we can make that work That is all that we have for today back again next week though here on covering the spread So make sure you are subscribed wherever you get your podcast to covering the spread We're gonna talk potentially college football if college football gets going You know, we'll certainly get into that as we get closer to the season We'll talk where NFL updates on basketball and baseball as well So it's a great time to be a sports fan Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Ed what you got going on over at the power rank for this week Yeah, I had Kelly Stewart on the football analytics show. You guys all know We had Kelly on the covering the spread last year. She's a sports betting personality Great conversation So you can get that at the football analytics show. Still, I would highly recommend checking out The episode before that as well predictability versus skill I did a little example with three point shooting in the NBA, which is Uh Not very predictable, but is clearly a skill and uh, there's um, there there's an analogy in the NFL And it has to do with quarterbacks, Jim. So that'll be coming out over the next month. Is that a teaser, Ed? Is that what they call a teaser? That that's a teaser And it's actually it's actually really important And uh As a reminder, you have both the written and an audio version for the three point shooting thing too Yeah, there's a written and an audio so you can catch the the audio on the football analytics show And then you go to the power rank comm slash blog It's been an interesting process because like I do you know I do a lot of audio episodes and I try to do them like this, Jim Like I'm just telling you about the results That I'm doing and then I take that audio and turn that into a rough draft and polish it up a little bit And there's not a ton of polishing, but I would say that the written is slightly more polished Yeah, um So but yeah, it's uh, it's I think it's a pretty good read And uh, you should definitely go check that out because there will be there will be applications in football and they will matter this fall So check the written version now at the power rank comm the audio version and the kelly steward interview at the The football analytics show wherever you get your podcasts as well. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big shout out to calvin theobald Our video producer who is stuck with no power right now because There is apparently a tropical storm in new jersey, but cal editing up these clips after the fact And foreign said a lot of extra work for him. So shout out to you cal. I apologize you have to go through this But we appreciate all of your hustle as always Uh, make sure you enjoy the sports while we have them enjoy sitting back and watching because we're kind of in this Perfect sports wonder world right now with everything going on at once Make sure you follow orlando skandrick on twitter at o skandrick Uh get all of his thoughts over there a big thank you to him as well And thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck with your bets. Enjoy the golf Baseball basketball whatever it may be this weekend. We'll talk to you again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network