 Good evening everyone, thanks Yeti and thanks Ellen for the introductions and First of all, I'd like to even though the lights are very bright here I'd like to thank all of you for coming here at the very end of the day and also I'm afraid to dispel any thoughts that you're going to see a rerun of that fantastic mobile graphics that Hans Rosling gave you this morning But anyway, we'll try and make it stimulating and interesting So my topic is in fact, I also changed the title a little bit Water and Agriculture Threats and Opportunities and I want to sort of draw some of the sort of interconnectivities between Agricultural water use and the urban areas. I mean we know that of course Food is very important for rural and urban residents. We know that the water supply comes from from catchments We know that what some of the waste from urban areas goes into Downstream areas used for for irrigation, etc But I think there are some some broader areas and reasons why the two sectors should cooperate a little bit more And I'd like to go into that a little bit today First I want to start on an optimistic note I think agriculture can be seen to have been a success from the green revolution You see the dramatic increase in productivity over the years in both developed and developing economies and at the same time a reduction in in under under nourishment and this has been quite striking I mean particularly in China and Vietnam with the Advent of economic growth reduction in in malnutrition and under nourishment quite so Also, that's been driven by high crop yields coming out of these Advances from the research laboratories and the closing of the gap between what's possible in the laboratory and what we're seeing in the field and The same time we recognize that it's not all high tech intensive agriculture about two billion small holders around the world are Responsible for about 70% of the food and only about a quarter of the food is actually traded on global markets I'm gonna come back to that because it does have some important Consequences also for food security in relation to and also to stability in in urban areas now a natural understanding of irrigation which is the the backbone of agricultural water management where 40% of food is produced from about 20% of the area due to irrigation is of the large systems the reservoirs the canal systems of the colonial times the sort of Things to sort of see in the Punjab Set up by the British about a hundred or more years ago But in fact in recent times the growth in irrigation has come from more small scale Groundwater driven irrigation and now you can see from this graphic But in fact groundwater is almost double the amount of formal canal irrigation and the question is you know Do the institutions actually reflect reflect that change? but this success has also come at the consequence of a series of impacts and work done by Rockstrom and others in 2009 and then updated a couple of years ago on these ten planetary boundaries show that there are some tipping points Which if exceeded could threaten the sustainability of this agricultural system and even beyond beyond that and agriculture is a cause Or one of the causes of some of these tipping points being exceeded in terms of the nitrogen cycle Coming up next maybe the phosphorus cycle also biodiversity loss and we also see that played out in many areas in terms of water and land degradation in terms of salinity the soil loss degraded areas the amount of Polluted water 12,000 cubic kilometers of polluted water deforestation and The contribution of agriculture, which is very significant to climate change co2 emissions We also see it in terms of the way that this groundwater has been used here a slide on India almost a clear Difference north-south between the areas in the west of the country, which had over abstracted as a result of perversing incentives electricity subsidies allowing people to pump at will and overdraft the groundwater and Then the areas on the eastern area the Eastern Gangetic Plain for example where there is still plenty of replenishable groundwater left So we are getting ourselves into quite a serious situation here at the same time by biodiversity Is is diminishing this work from? WWF and UNEP WCMC shows the reduction in species over the last 30 or 40 years And you can see particularly in terms of freshwater species this dramatic drop You know almost half the species lost in the last 30 or so years And we see a number of trends happening in agriculture to so this shows the Changes in food price index until if you saw the the first part of this graph, which isn't there You'll see gradually diminishing food prices Happening and then in around the turn the millennium. We started to see a trend of food prices rising and Then it's not just rising Uniformly, but then you have these spikes caused by a number of issues in terms of some speculation around agricultural commodities and trade the shift in some areas to subsidies on biofuels also the spikes in energy causing which is also a major Constituent of the prices of agriculture commodities transport production, etc And this also has social instability factors as we'll see in a moment so biofuel production I mentioned I mean this cartoon came from the walkie-journal Sentinel sentinel and Shows, you know, somebody a young child desperate to put food on the plate and just been offered the residue biofuel From from the corn crop, so I think you know We also need to see how this sort of linked up thinking what are the consequences of policy change in one area having in another area But let's look at food I mean who is consuming food and how much of your budget is actually spent on food if you look at in the US For example, only about 7% of the average annual average family budget is spent on food in Sweden apparently It's about 10% Come Central Asia 50 50, but in many parts of the developing world You see actually that figure is about 70% of the budget going on food with the balance being available then for for medicines For for rent for accommodation For education, etc. So what happens if you have one of those spikes? What happens then to those people in this set? We're paying already 70% It means that the amount of money left over if they're not going to starve Is diminished for what they can spend on the other things and so something falls off or they get into debt and I think coming back to Hans's presentation this morning Depending on where you sit in these graphs. You have a different perspective of how serious a price rise price a hike in prices is like the ones we saw in 2008 and 2011 and those foods food price hikes also caused Shortages in some areas a picture here from Mozambique and in some cases They actually led to social unrest and in some cases some researchers are now even linking this sort of the food price hike and insecurity as one possible cause of the Arab Spring at the same time as we develop Our diets are changing and we see that there's a shift towards to towards livestock meat and dairy products, so that the total population rise of The world's farm animals has trebled in the same time that the population has doubled and we can see that what's happening in India and China with an increase in meat production particularly in China, which is getting towards the sorts of levels you see in the States and Also then not meet in India But in terms of dairy products a similar sort of rather Astronomic rise and the key point here is that to grow one kilogram of meat protein Takes about a hundred times more water than one kilogram of grain protein And water is also being traded as we know across the globe and this is leading to Foreign direct investment in some areas in land, but not only in land But also in in water and it's so here an example from Africa where about 3.4 million hectares of land is under foreign direct investment from countries outside of Africa at the moment Predominantly in these six countries listed here, which accounts for about 50% And although water is sometimes mentioned in those agreements The amount of water that may be abstracted and the consequences for the people in that area as you move to more small commercial areas That commercial agriculture. Sorry is is not so so clear The trends also continue in terms of as we develop the changes in in water use So again low and middle income countries about 82% of the water is used in agriculture Whereas as we move towards a high income countries that Proportion shifts and more goes into industry and urban areas and in many OECD countries That shift has taken place. Maybe over a period of over a hundred or more years since the industrial revolution What we're seeing now in many countries is that period that taking place in a period of one generation And I think then that raises the institutional and the management questions about how do we deal with that shift and that transition? So here I'm starting to get into the question of why the urban sector should be really interested in what the agricultural sector is doing And again, I think it's graphically shown here in country in cities which are expanding incredibly quickly You'll see 2003 on the left situation in Hyderabad and how it's mushroomed in size in just 11 11 years and the consequence of that is that Hyderabad is now pulling in Much more water from further afield from groundwater and from inter basin diversions Having consequences not only on what that water was used for before for agriculture But also in terms of the volumes of wastewater and the quality of that wastewater as it goes back into the river into the river system and the question for many of the cities facing this type of Rapid expansion is are the systems in place to really to to manage that are the institutional boundaries Changing the responsibility of the municipalities changing at the same speed as the actual urban Periphery is changing We're also seeing massive Demographic changes of another sort we're seeing feminization of of our agriculture case here of Nepal where they huge migration of males young males from Nepal to the Middle East for work has led to a situation where there are many Females now are heading the households in and the farming in itself not necessarily a bad thing But if the institutions don't change to recognize the role of women and allow them to have access to Services and to credit and role in management bodies, then you have a problem Labor is also an issue The population is also aging the average age of farmers is now reaching about 60 and Many young far young farming families don't want to stay in farming. They want to move to the urban areas again So what is the role then? What does that mean? And actually you're seeing the consequence that in some countries Vietnam China Malaysia for example Whereas maybe 20 years ago. We were worried that there was going to be an increasing fragmentation of land and how was that going to be viable We're now seeing a consolidation of land and with that Opportunities for more commercial more efficient more agriculture and water use so that's Agriculture is a success story, but with problems It's also some of the trends are affecting agriculture and now I just wanted to go on to quickly talk about You know what we need to do to manage it better and four areas I want to talk about very very quickly because I know we're running out of time But I want to be reasonably positive Maybe as Hans was called a possible list in terms of I think there is scope for increasing production and work We did several years ago showed that particularly in those low yield areas. There's tremendous scope for increasing yield We see that massive groundwater still exists in in Africa But let's not make the same mistakes that were made in that western part of India in terms of how we abstract that because it's very Fragile and we know that if it's mismanaged and the wrong subsidies and incentives are put in place Then we will end up with a lots of red dots in that area We know there are Incremental steps to getting people away from just irrigating with buckets to irrigating with pumps including the small-scale Entrepreneur who's going around and selling pump his pump to for a couple of hours to two Farmers in Tanzania in West Bengal in this area where there is groundwater We see that by removing some of the red tape and the connect to connection charges and the problems of getting a license You can actually affect about four and a half million people and get them on the step ladder of irrigation and supplementary irrigation We also see that cross-sectoral cooperation is possible We've seen in China. This is more than ten years ago now where transfers from urban areas from from agriculture to urban areas resulted in In an increase in water productivity and agriculture of three times not 30% but three times as a result of financing that came from the this transfer to finance those productivity increases we see in Latin America the opportunities for benefit sharing and Payments from utility consumers downstream to finance catchment management systems upstream We see more advanced systems happening in Australia with buy back from irrigators transfer to environment looking more Buying between irrigators and things may be too advanced still for some other countries, but it just shows that there are this range of possibilities We also see the options for increasing efficiency and resilience for example Solar pumps are going to come and reduce the burden on fossil fuel electricity generation in India for example We see drip irrigation which we've talked about for 20 or 30 years when I was at university 30 years ago Which has only just started to take off because the incentive framework now is being put in place to do this So large-scale farms are now taking up drip irrigation We see some of this land land degradation being addressed Saline soils as example from the bright spot spots initiative was where licorice You know what we think of in candy sometimes is actually a very good crop for reclaiming Saline soils and at the same time providing fodder and an input into the pharmaceutical industry From my sister Institute the International Rights Institute research Institute. We see new varieties coming up which are Going to be resistant to floods so this rice what they call the scuba rice Can actually be completely inundated for 17 days and still give about 70% of the yield Providing farmers with that sort of insurance that they will still get a livelihood after a catastrophic flood event We see possibilities for managed aquifer recharge Where you take at the peak of the flood and try and store it underground to protect not only the urban areas The sorts of things we saw and the damage we saw in Bangkok in 2011 But also then providing water for summer irrigation But how do we make this operational and finally the last point something which being talked about in the halls of this room and This conference much during today and in the subsequent days the reuse of waste But here I'm particularly looking at the situation in in some countries where treatment is not going to be a reality For the next generation So what do you do then we know people are using water, but this is a sort of thing We end up with this or pollution of land bodies of water bodies because we've provided the toilets We've provided the septic tanks, but we haven't then provided the treatment works to deal with that afterwards So what are the options there? This is one option for the what using wastewater so for the farmer clearly which one would you choose? You know your productivity for the consumer But you know are there pathogens on the one on the left? I don't know so this is sort of thing so can you work with other agencies to make this safer and To sort of make it it's going to happen anyway So how do we make it happen in a safer environment? We've been working with WHO and FAO and US EPA to try and Bring in some of the simple things you can do to actually make that a safer practice As I say treatment is not always the answer. This is about six seventy Treatment wastewater treatment and fecal sludge treatment plants from a West African country where Okay, how many of them work? This is how many actually work now for various reasons Because of lack of electricity lack of capacity lack of maintenance costs and things like this So we have to provide some alternative again an incremental approach and the co-composting of fertilizer and turning of Fecal sludge and turning that into a fertilizer which is safe to handle and safe to yield use and provides the same level as yields as Chemical fertilizer is some of the work that I think is looking particularly promising so that I'd like to to finish and just to say that I think that there is a tremendous scope for Agriculture and the urban sector to work together because together I think we can find some of those solutions which agriculture on its own will not be able to find Thank you very much