 What is up everyone welcome to the final week of the PGA tours Regular season just one more event for a shot for these golfers to rack up FedEx cut points this week at The Wyndham championship at sedge field country club. So welcome on in to the Fandall PGA Q&A for this week. I am your host Brandon Cadulla I'm the managing editor over at number fire comm and I will be talking about the field the betting odds on Fandall sportsbook the daily fantasy slate on Fandall my win simulations and whatever else you want because this is a Q&A format So just hit up the comment section on YouTube Facebook Twitter or Twitch if you have questions for this week's event The Wyndham championship gonna start like I always do by looking at the field from a top-down perspective looking at The win odds on Fandall sportsbook Now if you've been studying up for this particular event and see a glaring Name that's not there anymore. It's because Patrick Reed who was 22 to 1 last I saw on Fandall sportsbook with Drew about an hour ago. So I'm a little bit more scrambled than usual I usually I'm trying to do a bunch of stuff before the show Make sure I'm not missing anything make sure all the spreadsheets are set up in the right way and of course he withdrew and I had to Go ahead and rerun some Sims take them out of the this the spreadsheet make sure that he's not popping up So there could be some errors I could have forgotten to do a few things but Patrick Reed did withdraw that didn't actually lead to a big shift at least Not yet in terms of the outright win odds web Simpson Former winner here has a bunch of good finishes at Sedgefield 12 to 1 Hedekimatsu Yama 15 to 1 Louis we stays in 20 to 1 then you get a bit of a drop then to Will's out of tourists 28 Brian Harmon 28 some GM Jason Coke rack both 29 Russell Henley 30. So I mean look I love Russell Henley. There probably aren't too many people who like Russell Henley more than I do but Anytime you see Russell Henley 30 to 1 he kind of tells you a lot about the field that we have for the week No disrespect to Russell Henley. I think he's a great play On Fandle. He's only ten thousand nine hundred with his salary. So But again, I mean it is what it is and sometimes we get this and then for the next three weeks We should have some really strong fields But this is kind of what we're looking at with the top and so from a betting standpoint My win simulation model has web Simpson has a bit overvalued same for Hedekimatsu Yama and anytime that the two favorites are Kind of aggressively Overvalued at least like one to two percentage points, maybe three percentage points I don't know where it where it shook out didn't get the audit that the new Sims that well Without Patrick Reed that I just ran but anytime you get that like one to two percentage points for the favorites Possibly three sometimes four. So I don't know exactly where it is now But that puts value on other names and for this week The value has primarily gone toward Louis. We stays in who is the best golfer in this field over the past year kind of You know in my in my database if you adjust for field strength and recency But also like data golf has him over the past six months is the best golfer over the past 20 rounds is the best golfer So you kind of have to overcome that like Louis doesn't win events sort of fear But if you want to find a good betting value It's it's Louis. That's just kind of how it is Thoughts question from DJ I just realized I told you I was scrambling and you have my lights on so I didn't get my lights on So I'm sure my video quality is not gonna be as good as it. It's a typically is but a question from DJ thoughts on Fleetwood or Kisner so I haven't really looked at Fleetwood I'll pull him up on The finder here Fleetwood jumped out to me is a bit overrated. He typically does just because His like ball striking is not really where you would expect it to be and I'll put Kisner as well Not a whole lot of great like win equity here now Fleetwood is 40 to 1 so it's not like He's up in that 20 to 1 range. So that that should help But his fandal salary still 11,000 which is a bit steep for someone who's got poor iron play I can I can justify poor iron play a little bit easier from value plays Not necessarily from the high-end golfers in in the field It's kind of just that that mark of consistency iron play is Just trailing off the tee play with terms of like week-to-week predictability. So I Like Tommy Fleetwood as a golfer like I like to watch him like the root for him But I'm never as high on others when it comes to daily fantasy or betting just because of That iron play and honestly the ball striking overall 62nd percentile is off the tee is fine for this field, but it's not particularly good and He's rating out as one of the longer hitters in this field and I didn't go over the course Just yet, which I'll get back to And I'll explain why honestly something like Kevin Kisner who is better with the fairways game than the distance Should probably be bumped up but for Kisner Really good putter especially on Bermuda, which is what we get this week. I would honestly like I Mean the win simulation model likes Kisner better outright You can get him a 48 to 1 instead of 40 to 1 and honestly if we're talking like Daily fantasy you can't really compare them with that that huge of a salary gap But I think Kisner is the preferred play between the two if you're looking for an outright And I think at this rate just play him on Fandle save some salary and spend up on other golfers instead So I'm gonna jump back over to I don't know why this isn't working Jump back over to the Course itself at Sedgefield For the Wyndham Sedgefield has been around for quite some time And you know if anyone else has any other questions DJ got his questions first Hopefully I answered that satisfactorily, but I just hit up the comment section YouTube Facebook Twitter, Twitch, and I will get to those For this week we've got again Sedgefield Country Club to par 70 7100 and change in terms of the yardage so it rates out a Little bit shorter than your average par 70 about 80 yards, and I have a hole-by-hole breakdown On number fire in my course primer There are some holes that are kind of rate out longer than than usual relative to par and some of the shorter holes There's a shorter par 4 and to shorter par 3 is relative to like the median Par 3 which is like 200 yards on the PGA tour But it's a shorter overall course with about average green sizes and those Bermuda greens that I already talked about And that has had a pretty clear effect on driving distance that that You know the fact that it's a shorter course According to data golf course fit tool driving accuracy gets way more attention this week It means more at Sedgefield than it does on your typical PGA tour course driving distance gets de-emphasized Putting gets a little bit de-emphasized around the green play a little bit de-emphasized and approach is about the same And then I also like to usually start here but I just jumped over because I had a more natural segue to the The course fit tool, but I like to look at what drives variation and scoring like what What in a particular week or in a particular event? Hopefully the samples large enough, which we get for this event average here What's leading to scoring? Well putting is more important in terms of explaining how golfers separate Part of that is because it's a birdie fest, which I'll go to you next putting's a little bit more important around the green play a little bit less important iron place less important, but still It's easily the most Important in terms of explaining how golfers separate from one another Among the three T to greens that's that's always the case. That's why anytime you hear people talk about strokes gain approach You just you can gain more strokes from approach on the field than you can Off the tee or around the green or really even putting putting sometimes gets out there depending on how hot someone is with the Putter but Approach plays always number one even if it gets downgraded a little bit still going to explain more about how Golfers separate then either off the tee or around the green and I mentioned that scoring The past scores have really alternated. So it's kind of funny and in a way, but Jim Herman won at 21 under Last year before that it was 22 under for JT post in back to 21 under for Brant Snedeker 22 under for Henry Stenson and then 21 under for Siebel Kim so we're looking at a winning score of You know 20 under or better. That's gonna lead to a lot of birdies and driving accuracy is more important You basically what I should say is driving distance isn't a prerequisite Which it is at some courses and so anytime you get that combination anybody's listening to me before Knows where I'm going with this but anytime distance isn't a must shorter hitters are Viable and anytime a course is playing easy to par that puts more golfers in contention as well The simplest way to think about it is, you know if par fours are more scoreable The the best of the best the longer hitters in this case Like they're not going to be able to birdie holes that the rest of the field can't whereas you give them a super tough super long course Some of the shorter here's was birdies not really in the cards on some par fours Where it would be for the bigger hitters so like the lower the scores and the less that driving distance matters The more volatility there is which is really why I'm not sold on feeling like I have to play web Simpson this week Even though everything points to playing web Simpson almost a decky Louie is not going to be off the radar by any means But I think we should probably get a little bit of a popularity Advantage by playing Louie we stays an over Web Simpson just because that volatility I think is super important to keep in mind for this week based on those two Separate criteria that kind of funnel us to think that it's going to be a bit more Volatile in general and I mean honestly you look at the the leader if Jim Herman can win an event that kind of explains Exactly what I'm talking about even better than I could Billy Horschel and not a long-hitter necessarily Web Simpson, we know Kevin Kisner not a long-hitter Zach Johnson up there Russell Henley someone who always benefits So like just go back and look at some of the leaderboards and you'll kind of realize what I'm saying where you shouldn't expect it to be the most chalky Event for the yes, that's not gonna be super chalk. We're gonna get a lot of that variance a question from Clint Who's some top-notch value plays? So I think value this week is actually pretty nice I don't always feel that way, but I do think there's a bit of a cap and it's around 8,500 For me this week. I will have to pull up the the really busy sheet here That has everyone. I will I will skip over the 9,000 range, which is actually quite loaded with names and I'll focus primarily on the 8,000 range just to go over some of my Preferred plays for this for these purposes. I'm just gonna make everyone green and Then filter them out so I can kind of highlight some of my favorites a little bit more easily If this will update but there are okay, of course, that's not gonna work because why would it? There we go. I'm gonna filter now Just to get some of those names and again some of these like Kutcher Aaron wise Brian's there were a little bit less Sure fire plays but we get golfers who really benefit from Playing on a course that doesn't demand distance so one cool thing about golf There are a lot of cool things about golf and how we can approach a slate is that For the most part the best golfers are the best golfers, but the value golfers Like sometimes it's a big hitting course and you're like well place someone who just nukes it off the tee Has some other issues like a Jonathan Vegas comes to mind anytime that that's the case There's also the the inverse and we get this a little bit less frequently or distance because Accuracy doesn't really matter a whole lot. Generally distance is kind of overtaking the game But every now and then you get events like this and you it's like it's chess week Jim Jim Sonis, and I talk about it all the time Jim loves chess whenever it's the right week, and I think it's the right week for chess because he is in The 99th percentile in this field and fairways gained over the past 50 rounds according to fantasy national and in the third percentile and distance gain That Kutcher not a long hitter especially now Not as accurate as some of the others, but you can bump him up again he was a little bit more of a throw in there but Brendan Todd is Like the perfect example Jim does love chess. Thank you Cal But Brendan Todd perfect example you get a short hit like a short Bermuda course That's kind of when you play Todd. You don't really play him in other other events, but Chris Kirk for me Is the number one value play and I will pull him up on the finder and explain why Actually, I'll talk about this quickly if you're looking for course comps I don't do that a lot. I don't know how predictive it is. I haven't tested it, but RBC heritage is another Carolina course. The weather is going to be hot this week It's going to be a bit shorter of a course now Harbour town has a really small green, so that's not quite the same and it's like Can you comp them now that one has really small greens one has average greens? That's kind of where you get into but I think it's at least somewhat noteworthy That there might be some overlap here and Chris Kirk finished seventh earlier this year at RBC heritage but Chris Kirk is also just kind of good He probably also yeah, he'd jump up to 11th because Patrick Reed Reed withdrew He's now I guess tied for 49th without Reed instead of 50th But at 8600 he's basically like 50th in salary and borderline top 12 top 10 in my like combo model which combines long-term form and the stats that I'm looking for for a particular week Really really strong ball striker with that 85th percentile approach number 74th percentile off the tee a little bit more accurate than he is long Not a great Bermuda potter But like kind of mid-leveled losing point one strokes per round not the end of the world by any means and Chris Kirk also I'll pull this up Should have had this already, but again the Patrick Reed withdrawal has me scrambling There are eight holes on this course That are par fours between 400 and 450 yards so almost half the holes fit that and I don't like to break things down to that degree but You kind of have to at a certain point like if you have eight holes that fit this Hopefully you're looking at a long long enough sample where You're gonna have some harder par fours. You're gonna plant some tougher fields I don't like unadjusted numbers because you know, this doesn't really explain What type of holes like how difficult a hole was but with almost half the holes fitting this criteria You have to factor it in a little bit And so Chris Kirk's fourth this year in par four scoring from 400 and 450 yards Web Simpson is a very obvious name here glaring was tied for first with Abraham answer before is when last week from that range Thank you Aaron for the nice comment But Chris Kirk, you know has a lot going for him already then you factor in that that par four Efficiency from this range that's like hard to hate on and with everything else looking good. So Chris Kirk my favorite value, but Honestly, we have a lot of good values in the 8,000 range, which is not typically the case And so I think for this week even though we have a pull up the 9,000 range. We have a ton of names here. I think the I think that the 9,000 range is so good, but the 8,000 range might be a little bit better Once adjusted for salary now, we will say that We shouldn't really go below 8,500 because the the win odds You can just look at a sports book if you handle sports book, you know be a good one But the win odds from that perspective really drop off It's it's not like the most top-heavy field It's a little bit top-heavy then there's like a big wide tier between that 85 and like 10 5 range and then You know some some of those golfers down there are going to hit in the 7,000 the low 8,000 range But it's really not worth building around just too much volatility because even at the top it's gonna be difficult So I would say build a tighter core this week With like a modified balanced approach where you're going down into 8,000 a little bit more often than I would with like a What I would consider a typical balance, which is like kind of 9,000 to 11,000 You still want to get some web. I still want to get For me plenty of Louie Jason Coke rack Brian Harman those types But we do have options and so that's that's really appealing Kevin Shuman is one who really stands out because just a really good like long-term golfer that doesn't quite get The buzz and then you put him in a field like this and he gets you know a little bit of a boost because he's pretty accurate Not a good putter on any surface, but Shuman's in play Kisner someone I already went over a little bit more detail Kisner's appealing not my favorite play, but he's up there Taylor Gooch always a balanced profile if you look at him No red flags in any of the four Adjusted strokes gain numbers over the past year this comes from my database It adjusts for the field strength that golfers played in and adjust for recency as well So it's not looking so much at like last October it's looking more at you know last week, so You like to see that for golfers rating out. Well, not the best off the tee, but that's all right Not the most accurate, but again not terrible there either Zach Johnson we saw his name on the top of the leaderboard At the top near the top of the leaderboard last year at this course We know you don't play him in courses that require distance you play him in courses where he can be accurate and in sinks and pots Lucas Glover dug game as well, so There are a lot of Good plays so question from Aaron favorite play between nine nine K to ninety three I'll open this up to everyone in that range But it's probably going to be Lucas Glover If I can go there at ninety three, so I can Glover really good T degree 83rd percentile Not quite as good as Harold Barner not quite as good as Doug game, but the putting for game is a Big big red flag I should probably make that big and it's 14 percentile But he's just a bad putter and that really box him down a lot Ryan Moore has a win here I wouldn't hate that but it kind of speaks to like the power of the the value range this week But I'm gonna go with Lucas Glover Just because he's the best of the long-term golfers aside from Jim and Jim has plenty of putting concerns I wouldn't dislike Harold Barner even though he's not highlighted Carolina guy. I went to college. I'm an Eastern Carolina It's not a good Bermuda putter. So that's a bit of a concern was runner-up at the heritage though So that's kind of a corollary, but I know it's kind of like it's rare. We haven't had this for a few weeks, but It's a really strong low and like low 9,000 tier this week. And so you have plenty of options I'm gonna rank Glover first If I can go the whole way up to 9,300 if I couldn't it would be game for me in that range so Got some time yet Let me break down my win simulations because I think I think I covered everything from a DFS perspective to a pretty good degree Unless much probably actually go through. It's just the studs roll fast the studs in the Yeah, let's do the studs and the 10k range a bit Louis my number one. I've already mentioned Brian Harmon's gonna be green now without Patrick Reed I know it's kind of a good number of names These are the three overweb Hideki and Zalatoris and Sung Jae and Fleetwood Let's throw them in there because they're all 11,000 or higher It's it's Louis number one for me Harmon coke rack at the top But we also have Russell Henley and see who Kim who see what Kim's about to win here in his career But I'll pull up Russell Henley and see what Kim and a little bit Closer just because I think Henley deserves a lot of attention And see what Kim deserves plenty of attention after his 13 on a par 3 kind of made me feel better about my game this past week, but I think shooting a 13 Is gonna drive down some sentiment for see who even though he has a win here Not a good Bermuda putter. So that's kind of the still the concern with see who Kim His approach plays plummeting because he lost like 16 strokes from approach just last week because he hit so many in the water Also lost a ton of strokes putting it was it was quite an event last week for see who but really elite wedge play Really strong off the tee and another one of the situations where a little bit more accurate than he is long That's kind of how he gains more of a strokes But Russell Henley is kind of that magnified more accurate Then he is long so that that helps us kind of overlook the modest strokes gained off the tee number And he's just got the best adjusted irons in the field That's always what you want to see Russell Henley's got some really good finishes and tougher fields than this So I'm pretty high on Russell Henley and at that salary of ten thousand nine hundred. I feel like I can Avoid web Simpson more in tournaments I think if you're playing one lineup web web Simpson plays it makes a lot of sense and like a cash game or head-to-head You know like a three-man something like that But in tournaments, I'm probably just going to be okay be underweight on web and Hideki because I can play Louis coke rack Harman And Russell Henley at the very very top. So that's kind of how I'm feeling from an overall roster construction game theory perspective tournament perspective entering this week. I think there's a lot of volatility That makes it okay To pass up on web overall. So I'm going to look quickly at my Win simulations and just see who's rating out as the best values overall For the week according to the odds on phantoms sportsbook. No surprise here. It's louis Rating out as a pretty insane value for me at You know 20 to 1 odds That's what I talked about at the top of the show webs about 2 2 percentage points. I should probably say Overvalued Hideki almost two and a half points overvalued based on long term adjusted form and course fit I think web just has a little bit too much like subjective Love around him for the week. So I'm gonna Be okay not not betting web, especially a 12 to 1 and start my betting card with louis at 20 to 1 But brian harman at 28 to 1 is rating out as a positive expected value as well I don't typically see so much green here. It's actually kind of hard to outperform the the actual betting odds because Bookmakers are generally efficient You also don't want to see things wildly different because you're probably not on the right path But whenever you have a few guys clearly overvalued based on What I like to look at You have wills out towards here too like great golfer His putting is still really bad and he doesn't even have the high end weeks necessarily finished I think Finished top 10 last week with one of his best putting performances of his career on the pga tour, which is short but Like he still doesn't have that like six seven eight stroke upside with his putting if anything He's got that on the negative end and that really makes it hard to love an outright And then you factor in he's a longer hitter at a course where you don't necessarily need to do that It's going to downgrade your advantage there. So we have a lot of overvalued golfers from that perspective So i'm point it's pointing to louis harman henley As usual my model love usually loves rustle henley and then brandon todd at 75 to 1 Rating out as good value kevin strome and some of these names that are talked about there's a lot of overlap It's there's not always a ton. Well, there's not always perfect overlap with who you like from a daily fantasy standpoint And who you like from a betting standpoint see who came right here Uh, I like him better from a daily fantasy standpoint than a betting standpoint But that's because the salary is very much fair Um, but I think there's a lot of overlap for me this week. I'm gonna be it's going to be a good week Or it's going to be not not uh, such a good week Uh comment from tracy got to go with snedeker horse for the course. I cannot I cannot argue against that But I don't put as much stock into course history as I typically do I would never talk anyone out of brand snedeker though at a course where he has been so good So tracy, that's a good call. Um, I I actually have on number fire some of the best golfers at other particular course with the best adjusted Or not adjusted just total strokes gained average Snedeker makes the list gaining 1.5 on the field in his career since 2012 at the course So good call and with that I'm going to bring on tom vekio And he is going to be breaking down the mlb slate for tonight tom What's going on I'm doing good. You know, we have a slate let off by back scherzer I obviously present a clear ace up at the top, but I know him Yeah He's pretty good at baseball But if you want to save some certainly looked at pivot down to Logan Gilbert for the Mariners going up against a very weak rangers team Save that salary load up on some stacks tonight I'm uh, I was a Mariners fan growing up. So I like this big fan of The guy you just said Still follow baseball very very closely So I'm going to get out of your way get out of everyone's way and Listen to what you have to say about tonight's slate All right, so let's jump in Obviously tonight's late 13 games much much Bigger compared to what we had last night with only three games Last time we had one game rained out due to The cubs and the brewers that game was rained out tonight as you can see We also have a bit of weather that we need to be worried about now Nothing seems to be as severe as it was last night This oakland and cleveland game is a little bit concerning because One we have shamanaya who's over $10,000 for the athletics pitching Obviously a lot of people would be targeting him and then the athletics bats are in a great spot going up against tristan mckenzie From cleveland. So a bit of something that we need on both ends obviously We have A lot to get to a lot to break down if you have questions, let me know I'll be here for the next half hour going over everything Again, we're here every day 4 p.m. On the fandal youtube Facebook and twitch page. I will be here tomorrow At 9 a.m. To do the solo shots and then back again at 4 p.m. To do this q&a We have some confirmed starting lines. We'll get this a refresh. We'll hop into some questions, etc Can you rank the players from the houston game? So the houston game houston is at home. They're heavy favorite shake or izzy is pitching for houston going up against john gray from colorado. John gray has actually been pitching decently well as of late Bring him his stuff. I actually kind of think that The rockies bats are potentially underrated tonight because Uh jaco to rizzi like isn't a good pitcher necessarily like he's really just Very very average at best to below average. So he's the pitcher. I actually don't mind targeting John gray has actually been somewhat consistent as of late. He's been showing some nice upside If i'm terms of in terms of ranking the hitters. I think you would assume From houston Not many people would be naturally going to The rockies although I do have a bit of interest in the rockies tonight, but that's just me If we get alex bregman back, it's whether or not he gets confirmed He would obviously present a bit of value at $3,000. He should be coming back this week Although we don't have final confirmation I would be leaning mostly to your don alvarez kyle tucker and hose al-tube is the top three from houston Just because we want the lefty righty splits going against john gray for alvarez and tucker And then of course al-tube a consistent hitter regardless The favorite stacks on tonight's slates of on on youtube is asking Favorite stacks for me tonight would absolutely be the Yankees and the white socks. We saw what they did last night I think you should be firmly going to them, but the athletics I think you make the case that the athletics have just as much If not more power upside compared to the Yankees, especially with their lineup Still dealing with a few injuries. No more rizzo. No more labor torez The bottom no more gary sanchez like the bottom half of their line If it's certainly a lot weaker than it could be so the white socks the And the athletics are my top two teams on tonight's slate They are just a step ahead of the Yankees I'm certainly looking to the tiger's night as I spoke about them this morning on the solo shot attacking keegan agon I'll then be looking to add in plenty of shares of the Cincinnati reds Just because they offer so so much home run upside going up against Drew smiley from the braves a pitcher that's allowing way way too many home runs. We do have the reds confirmed starting lineup Let's jump to that real quickly So it was confirmed a little while ago india stevensson castellanos vado, uh, aquino Farmer suarez akiyama. So basically Everyone one through seven Outside of akiyama isn't played for me from the reds one through seven. I you could stack them any which way I think they offer Plenty of power tonight. They have a great matchup going up against Drew smiley a pitcher that's simply allowing way too many home runs drew smiley this season I mean 2.10 home runs per nine lefties 1.66 home runs per nine versus righties He's allowing too many fly balls. He's you know, striking out a decent amount versus lefties He is a lefty pitcher after all but too many walks Against righties. I think this sets up to be a phenomenal spot for the reds And really all this power in their lineup is something that you absolutely Want exposure to the red seem like a team now once they start hitting home bronze It's like they're going to be hitting three four five every single game So when it comes to the reds, I actually really like tyler stevenson tonight given n Aquino tonight's given their salaries and their batting orders were Betting second for a catcher and then queen are right in the middle of the lineup at $2,500 really brings some serious power 275 iso versus lefties and he's only $2,500 of course if you want to pay up for anyone else in their lineup go for it Uh, should I put in the haas or cabrera for the tigers? I would lean towards eric haas I'll bring up his uh splits. They're going up against Keegan achon who's a lefty we'll get detroit So this season i mean eric haas is leading the team or leading at least Me increase this sample size so we get more played appearances. We get more It was up here eric haas a 402 iso this season Obviously massive massive power compared to miguel cabrera was actually under 100 iso in this split So eric haas is a big target for me tonight I spoke about him this morning or spoke about the tigers in general This morning when it comes to when he on the solo shot. So eric haas at $3,400 I think he has some serious serious homerun upside tonight Going up against keegan achon So that's where I would be leaning dj on facebook is asking any thoughts on daniel lynch carlos carasco or kobe allard tonight so kobe allard, uh, not i'm actually a little bit more interested when it comes to The mariner stein ahead of kobe allard. I understand why you'd be going there I personally have a bit of interest in seattle just because kobe allard actually Have him pulled up here. He's allowing too many home runs to both lefties and righties So we could certainly be looking to attack him for some homerun upside I think that you know kyle seager He's one of the players I brought up as an under the radar option tonight has some Some sneaky homerun upside despite it being a lefty lefty So of that group, I would actually lean towards carlos carasco and then daniel lynch ahead of allard Carasco really does have a good matchup going up against washington their line up is significantly weaker This is the issue here four and four point one innings Uh for him in his first two starts back obviously miss the entire first portion of the season So if we you know see that creep up a little bit, maybe it's at you know, five five point one Like he's being very efficient like he's getting some strikeouts only one and two earn runs and four and four point one innings Like we can say that the matchup is good against washington. They're rolling out like a half triple a lineup Essentially after all their trades and injuries. So he's actually in a good spot. He's at home for the Mets obviously a good pitchers park So it actually kind of like uh, carlos grass could we just have to know that his ceiling is going to be limited Because he's not going to be pitching seven innings ultimately King on youtube is saying oakland stack Because the leather ride seems to gain cancel gesture postdoc You know if that turns out to be the case that would be great for oakland. I am very very high on oakland tonight Going up against tristan mckenzie. Just a picture that's allowing way way too many home runs Only 1.11 home runs per nine to lefty. He does have a five 29 exit He's also allowing 46.3 home runs Excuse me 46.3 percent fly ball rates this season versus lefties and he's only allowing 10.5 percent home run to fly ball ratio Now that 10.5 percent home run to fly ball ratio is below the league average So given the volume of home run volume of fly balls that he's allowing He actually should be allowing more home runs like we can't be giving up this many fly balls and just so few of them Turn into home runs. So since he's below the League average when it comes to home run to fly ball ratio, I actually think that he's due for some negative regression The league average is at 13.4 13.5 whatever it is. So he's actually due for a bit of negative regression. So matt olson Is my second home run call for tonight. I said nick castellanos This morning on the solo shot matt olson is my second home run call for tonight just everything lines up for him going up against Tristan McKenzie if we look to matt olson splits this year, they're obviously fantastic He's having a great season plenty of power versus righties at 242 I so obviously great to see a 42.7 fly ball rate and a 40 heart contact rate versus righties fantastic stuff from Matt Olson. So really anyone in oakland this top portion of line obviously except for Ramon Loriano because he's been suspended I think is firmly in play and yes if people are afraid about the weather and they said oh yesterday's game got canceled I see that there's going to be weather tonight if that means You know less people are going to be rostering oakland. I'm just going to be On on top of oakland even more just because that home run upside Is totally totally there for them What games will have a lot of offense savannah and youtube is asking Uh, I think that we could be seeing like a sneaky shoot out between Well, I guess it's not so sneaky but the tigers and the orioles like a 10 and a half over under Just both teams with bad pitchers both teams with bad bullpens like as I said before with the orioles What it was uh last week against andrew heaney like their their offense between cedric molens and mount castle and Mancini like that offense has some pop now. They just put austin haze wasn't on the eye out No, I put mount castle on the eye out. So haze is still in there But molens mancini santan dare haze like even dj dj steward in the lefty writing match of like That's that's some decent power in the the lineup for baltorn. And you say the same thing about Uh, detroit for grossman, uh, jonathan scope. He is playing his former team So if you are a fan of uh revenge narratives, that's there Candelario has some power and then eric cost. So like there are multiple options for both orioles on the tigers and You know depending on where you go like these players aren't that expensive Three play like this is we're looking at all players. Sure. There's three players above three thousand dollars Everyone else is 2400 and below So doing a game stack here is very very viable It's an I think that the over under of 10 and a half kind of indicates that both teams with implied run titles over five jerry on facebook is saying i'm on board with the new york metz seattle Uh, and new york metz st. Louis. I think you mean seattle and san diego, boston, miami all these teams What are your thoughts so the metz? You know, I understand in theory why people will be going to them. Uh, since they're going up against palo Spino Ultimately their lineup which was confirmed like Their lineup kind of has Me like wanting more right lindore's been out hobby bias isn't in the lineup today after he's dealing with this this Hip thing, but if you want to go with alonzo Smith confordo like as a main three That's that that's what i'm kind of okay with like i'm not Overly in love with the metz. I understand why they're they could be popular because their matchup is good But like a large portion of their lineup doesn't have like overwhelming power tonight compared to what we have in other spots So the metz uh in detroit. Oh, uh, oh, I thought you meant seattle detroit. Yeah, totally on board with detroit. Uh, jerry was saying so St. boston san diego. I think those are great Uh detroit just spoke with them. I think they're fantastic the metz and st. Louis They're kind of in the same boat for me. Like I understand why people are going towards them I would lean a little bit more towards uh, st. Louis than I would the metz But if you're going to the metz, I know why you're going there. I like i'm not going to argue against it I just think that there are better teams. You could be targeting So that's where um, um, i'm going about things Our best secondary uh, kyle was saying do you like the cardinals versus uh, steven brawl tonight Yeah, I think the cardinals are fine tonight Like i'm not going to be arguing against a team attacking You know pittsburgh pitching staff or the pittsburgh bullpen like We we all know that they're not good and you could certainly roster Uh, uh, excuse me. Not since nanny, uh, st. Louis very very easily, right? Like we are dealing with affordable Salaries for the most part depending on where you roster except for aeronautical encouragement But rostering some of the st. Louis lineup is very very affordable. So I understand while people are going there. Uh, I I know that I do want to have a few shares of some of their hitters It's just how they work into my overall player allocation Uh, best secondary stacks tonight Uh secondary stacks tonight. So outside of you know, some of these top teams I I think are going to be very chalky The reds like I said the reds are dipping down here to 4.7 yet I think this matchup for them is actually really really strong Going up against uh, drew smiley drew smiley So I think that's fine. The marauders are slightly interesting to me today as well going up against Kobe allard I mentioned that uh, and then like a really really off the board option would be the rockies as I said I I don't think uh, jake odorizi is a good pitcher. Uh, we look at some of his splits here Like he's not a big strikeout pitcher. He's walking way too many lefties He's allowing way too many home runs And he's giving up fly balls, right? So we look to the money line, right and we see that The astros are heavy home favorites, right? And they should be right We should see the astros as heavy home favorites going up against colorado I'm not here to say that colorado is a better team than the astros. Of course, they're not but it's not like Odorizi is a good pitcher and that's why the astros are these massive home favorites sitting at minus 184 They're just a better team overall and they have better depth. They have better hitters They have all these sorts of things but like odorizi is not a good pitcher So if you really want to go to a secondary stack that's off the board It would be the rockies for me today. I actually brought up ryan mcman as a player could be under the radar, but They have some power in that lineup. It's I mean, it's still story blackman cron mcman Whoever you want to go to on colorado. Sure. It's uh, obviously they're not at home But they still have power in this lineup So cron mcman blackman as a little three man stack Is this spot to go and also their lineup is getting stronger because they're going to be in an a l Park in houston, which means that they get the added dh so I'm like halfway on board with colorado as I wrote up ryan mcman today. I do think he's a solid option Uh diffuse on youtube is saying I see nelson cruz being touted Probably throughout the industry, but what about some of the rays righty's positive park shift wins bowing out to redfield Blah blah, uh, you know fly balls for erot thoughts So i'm actually looking more towards rostering, uh, edward rodríguez tonight With his strikeout upside potential. I would only be looking towards Um, and water rodríguez and tortoise. So I think that there are far far safer options You know, his fly balls aren't that bad at 34 percent We let's look to his splits to see if he's struggling a bit more So I did mention, uh, rodríguez. He's so his splits versus lefty is actually worse than they are against righty's I mentioned rodríguez this morning on the on the solo shot saying like his strikeout upside is legit at 28 percent and he's going up against the Let's see. He's going up against the rays and versus lefties. They are the fifth worst team in the league right versus Lefties with a what is it 25.5 percent strikeout rate versus lefties active roster flip to the strikeout rates get this out of here Pretty sure it's at 25.5 percent 25.3 percent. So the rays strike out a ton now. They have good power. They're right at a league average offense of 101 w rc plus so I like edward rodríguez done as a pitcher if you're going to the rays for some home run upsides specifically like nelson cruise I think that's totally fine. They got randy rosarina back into their lineup. He's gonna be batting lean off as you could see So yes, the rays do make a good stack tonight. There's no doubt about it. But on the flip side We also have some significant strikeout upside for edward or rodríguez with this 28 percent strikeout rate Going up against a team that strikes out the fifth most versus lefties so I'm fine with the rays tonight, but I am also Very very interested in rodríguez as a tournament option tonight. And that's where I'm going to be going I think he makes a great point per dollar value at is 8,000 flat is 8,000 flats I think he is a very viable tournament option tonight So that is something I'm considering Michael Starr saying the white socks line confirmed. Are you interested in them versus jackstein, of course? Let's just give this a refresh Yeah, the white socks we saw what they did last night anderson angle brave man Standard lining for them obviously given the fact that brun doll is not back yet Luis robert is back. Let's double check it did his salary increase It did it's up to 2,700. He was minimum salary last night. So yes, the the white socks with their lineup You just a team that again kind of like the the braves kind of like the reds like and You know when they get the homeruns going it's like that. They're never going to stop as we saw last night So, you know, I didn't specifically talk too much about the Yankees the white socks today Because I think that they're very very clear. I think that they are the given offenses on tonight's lake We should see them as two of if not the chalkiest off offenses on tonight's slate And I think that they're viable in all formats. I think that you should be stacking them I should you could be looking them for homerun upside everything. So fully on the white socks today Fully on the Yankees just didn't necessarily Want to be talking about them because I think that they're you know, kind of uh, just like the standard for today I want to look a little bit elsewhere kind of like when we have game at course field Like we all know what's going to be happening. We know the upside that they can bring I want to be you know, a little bit different Specifically when it comes to torments, how can we find similar production for You know teams that are going under the radar Jerry on facebook is saying Atlanta and since now you will be hitting game for sure Gives a picture who's cheap but has upside. So yeah, I'm totally on board with cincy in atlanta. Obviously A little bit more on the side of cincy than than I am atlanta But it's not like we haven't seen a sunny gray struggle this year Specifically when it comes to a few home runs here and there. So yes that game stack is also Very viable and a picture that was cheap a picture that's cheap with lots of upside So picture that's cheap with upside. So like what salary are you looking for? Like that would help because you know in theory tristan mckenzie has a ton of upside with his nearly 30 strikeout rate He does have that upside but Uh, you know is $8,000 cheap is 7500 like a little bit more Uh, click like harasco. Yeah, I spoke about harasco a little bit 7100 I think he's fine tonight. It ultimately comes down to you know, how long is he going to be going into the game? you know 7900 for Carasco, you know in my mind is a bit much to pay When we don't know how deep he's going to be going into the games like Realistically, he's probably not going to jump from 4.1 innings pitch to like seven or eight It could be 5.1 Maybe 5.2 But like that's ultimately what we're looking at But rodriguez at 8,000 like he's showing like now granted this game is against Detroit So take that as you will but 47 points eight strikeouts and 5.2 innings against the Yankees 40 points against oakland and 46 points against the Yankees like this strikeout upside in this consistency of strikeouts per inning And how many he you know, his potential with his 20 h percent strikeout rate. I think is legitimate tonight That's why i'm looking towards him in tournament So I would lean towards rodriguez over carasco simply due to the fact that rodriguez could pitch seven or eight innings and carasco is probably not Uh, so that's just where I would be going about that Uh, dj caster thoughts on jerry duran, derrick hill, hodgen park or jack mefield if he plays Uh, ultimately, I would take I would take duran just for the the he's batting second tonight, right? for boston Duran is yeah, he's batting second tonight like $2,500 Yeah, uh player batting second for that salary in the red socks offense is something you absolutely want exposure to You could also take park like I would take them both ahead of mefield How do you like the angels? Los Angeles angels game sign and billy So the angels aren't on the main slate tonight because they're playing a double header against the blue jays One game starts at 60 other are right one game starts at six one game starts at uh at 10 So they're not on the main slate if you're playing a single game Uh, I haven't looked into that too much. I would say I mean if you could just play otani and whoever whoever else you can afford I think that would be the call but uh in the filly game tonight obviously the hitters in Uh, this game probably shouldn't be popular on either side I guess the Dodgers hitters would be a bit more popular compared to the Phillies Uh, this is really not where I'm looking for hitting. This is where I'm looking to get Max Scherzer into my lineup. I don't hate the idea of also going towards, uh, Aaron Nola for Uh, you know for tournaments, obviously I think he's in a tougher spot going up against the Dodgers compared to Scherzer going up against the Phillies We also could say that Scherzer is a better pitcher than Nola So no, I'm not really looking here for offense if I had to go here for offense It would be on the Dodger side of things going up against Aaron Nola Uh, Jerry was saying in regards to Carrasco had him in mind, but he may only pitch four innings Like that's the problem. Like as I said before with Carrasco, whoever asked him before like Yeah, this match up against Washington is is probably not going to be too tough for him Right, especially with this, you know, watered down Washington lineup Like he's been pretty solid to start. It's just that he's not stretched out and he's you know, not going to be Pitching 678 innings, which is an issue when he's $7,900. If he was $7,000, I think that is That is a would be a different story DJ on Facebook is saying Alex Wood is cheap. Yeah, we could be going to Alex Wood $8,600 I mentioned him right at the end of the solo shot this morning going up against Arizona Yeah, a couple of these recent starts one against Arizona one against Houston aren't great, but he still has a What is it a 25? 1% strikeout rate this season Which is right at the league average if I remember correctly Let's see strikeouts Would 25.1% strikeout rate for wood so like He is a good pitcher like he's only allowing 1.05 home runs per nine, which is obviously nice and low 3.68 x 5 and 3.77 here. Those are good numbers. There's no doubt He's a good pitcher a couple recent starts that are bad aren't overly concerning So yes, I do like him today against Arizona kind of mentioned that to close out the solo shot Would you consider sunny gray in gbp's night? Atlanta does have some brighties with high strikeouts. So yeah, we could flip to So sunny gray is up here at a 29.1% strikeout rate his stuff is legit We know that so peralta and steel are both in the first game for new walkie and Chicago Cubs that's going on nine so going on right now So gray does have the second highest strikeout rate on this like right behind max scherzer. So yes, we can be looking to him there Let's go to the teams. Let's look at atlanta and their Strikeout rate versus righties as you said flip to versus righties and we'll see now obviously you're going to sunny gray in the hopes that no one else is going to be on it because We're hoping that everyone's like, oh, it's atlanta You know the power in the Atlanta offense I don't want to be rostering a picture against them But like you said atlanta is right here, you know 10th worst in the league 24.4 strikeout rate versus righties now Yes a 191 iso Versus righties is also very good. It's the fifth best in the league. So Who asked that king on youtube is saying so yes Sunny gray is like the perfect combination for a tournament option because a he shouldn't be popular You know b he has that strikeout upside He has the matchup that has that allows that strikeout upside against atlanta the 10th worst in the league against righties and and you know, he should not be popular and ultimately 92 like the pivot away from sunny gray is logan gilbert who everyone's considering just to be a phenomenal option today Like logan gilbert should be so so chalky today going up against texas and everyone's just penciling Logan gilbert in as a very solid option. So because gray is right next to him and in just a factually tougher matchup Yes gray makes a fantastic Torment option tonight. He can strike out eight nine hitters in a game So totally on board with going to sunny gray as the pivot off of logan gilbert in tournaments And really it shouldn't mess with your line of construction At all it's only $300 difference. So if you were planning a logan gilbert and you want to get away from the chalk Sunny gray would be the answer DJ saying watch the weather in the philly game tonight Let's give this a little bit of an update Yeah, so weather is a little bit of an issue for some of these games time philly range should be north and or clearing We'll reevaluate before first pitch but not expecting trouble. So we'll get updates from kevin roth Hopefully leading up to first pitch. Uh, yeah, if you're looking to roster scherzer tonight, obviously The best picture on the slate you want to be paying attention to that Because that is a weather issue. So how would you play your stacks? For example three boston two cincy and three colorado. So if you're looking to go a little bit off the board with a colorado stack That's something like I said, I'm gonna have exposure to colorado tonight I just don't think like it's not just I don't think like jaco rizzi is not a good picture Too many over 41 fly ball rates of both lefties and righties. He's allowing too many home runs and he doesn't strike hitters out He's just not a good pitcher, right? And That's what it is. So if you're looking to get cincy boston and colorado so boston Obviously, we want to start with the safest options in boston Obviously depends on their salaries if you could afford to pay up for Devers martinez bow guards any combination of that wouldn't hurt If you need to take the salary relief and drop in duran in there. So if you could go like 234 or 235 from boston wouldn't be, you know, horrible. Obviously depending on the salary from cincinati I'm big on nick castellanos tonight as you know one of my homerun calls So I tried to get him in there and it ultimately come down to Like castellanos at 39 isn't bad Aquino at 25 offers a little bit salary relief. He's five. So you could go three five there Bringing some salary relief and then colorado. It's really whoever else you have salary for depending on who you're paying up for pitching I'm big on ryan mcman tonight. I think he's been he's in a good spot. He's been looking good Obviously cj kron had this huge weekend with like multiple two home run games Great that they were at home, but he does have Some even ish splits versus righty. So I would look to mcman story cron from Colorado as certainly options producer cow our great producers and 9k left to spend on pitcher In word of rod we get rod rigas alexwood or carlos carasco. So What is the safest option? But he certainly doesn't have as much upside compared to rod rigas. I would lean towards rod rigas. Ultimately we want to You know just gain as much upside as possible What is the safest option? And if you have 9k left Wood, you know only leaves you with 400 left, which isn't the worst if you take rod rigas You'd have a thousand dollars left, which means you'd have to swap out You know a player to because that's just simply too much salary to leave Available for line of construction. So what is ultimately the safest option? But rod rigas has the most upside Tim vest is saying our giants a good money line pick. So Yeah, the giants should win at home tonight. I don't know what their money line is giants are So giants are heavy home favorites and this shouldn't be a surprise. They're one of the best teams in the league You know going up against arizona who are one of the worst teams in the league. So I think the giants are a safe pick tonight You know, it's a lot of juice minus 210 to be laying, but if you're adding that into a larger parlay I think it's fine like they should be winning that game like eight times out of 10 realistically ultimately it's baseball some Random things could happen, but the giants just aren't better team. There's no question about that DJ on facebook is asking would you play Caesar Hernandez or louis robert tonight again tonight? I would play both of them You know personally I guess I have a bias I would lean towards louis robert because I have him as Uh, I have him on my team on my keeper league for my season long team So I was very excited to see him back in the lineup for the white socks yesterday after missing nearly all of the season So personally I would lean towards uh robert. He also does just have more power compared to Caesar Hernandez Uh, and he's cheaper tonight. So robert batting seven and cheaper versus Hernandez, uh at 3200 batting eight I would go towards robert Saban is asking what is a gbp. So gbp is just uh, I mean it stands for guaranteed prize pool But it just means tournament. So it just means, you know cash games are your your 50 50s your double ups Your head-to-heads all those sorts of things Uh, some people consider triple ups cash games. It's essentially closed But gbp is just stands for guaranteed prize pool. So it would be you know, one of these one of the larger contests That are the payouts are tiered. This is what gbp is Uh, would you consider as a stack like as a as a Oh, so we consider Caesar Hernandez and robert as a stack tonight like if you really just need a Uh, like a really really inexpensive two-man stack. Like yeah, they're still in a very powerful offense I think that is uh, totally fine. Jerry is saying I think sunny gray and smiley both struggle tend to get uh And are you saying smiley there tonight against lana's good hanging so since and yet like if i'm leaning anywhere for pitching that game It's going to be with sunny gray. It's it's never going to be Uh Drew smiley like drew smiley is just not a picture. I'm going to be rostering tonight. He's you know him and The both pitchers from detroit in baltimore Coby allard like these are not generally pitchers that I roster like on a slate like this. These are pitchers that When I go into the my player pool, I am removing them from the player pool. It's not about like limiting their exposure It's just get them out of my player pool. I don't want to have any exposure to them Um Yeah, no no pitchers. Uh, so i'm totally on board with if this since nanny atlanta game ended up, um Like if you told me this game ended like You know nine to seven or eight to six with either team winning. I'm not going to be surprised at all I think the homerun upside from them is both immense on a nightly basis Uh, and then finally king on youtube is asking. Do you think him and makes it to three multi-home run games in a row tonight? Uh Probably not. You know when a hitter is hot. He's hot. Uh, he is in a great spot Uh, multiple homerun games in a row. Ultimately, probably no, it's you know, it's baseball He's just bound for some regression Uh, but I do understand if you'd be buying into that because he is ultimately in a good spot going up against minnesota Their bullpen we saw what they can do or I should say can't do last night would just get out too many hitters Effectively, so I would go no, uh, if that was a yes or no question So no on multi-home run game for three in a row for him and his But that does it for today's q&a I will be back tomorrow morning 9 a.m For the solo shot going over tomorrow's slate and then back here on youtube facebook and twitch for the 4 p.m q&a taking your questions As always, you can follow me on twitter at dfs underscore tom till next time. Good luck in your contest