 Hi, my name is Leon Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com Welcome to this week's plan demand for us and gold fundamental and technical analysis for the week ahead starting the 11th of February hope you all had a great trading week and they're looking forward to the upcoming week and before we get into The fundamentals and technicals. Please do like subscribe and share the video if you in Enjoy the content and you find the content useful for your trading and Yeah, let's get into it So week ahead 11th of February in the US investors will closely watch inflation report followed by retail sales figures producer inflation data and the Michigan consumer confidence Index of this nearly speeches by several Federal Reserve officials will be monitored so again all eyes on the US dollar really the theme is when are when is the Federal Reserve going to cut rates right and that is really where what is driving Prices over the medium to long term so the longer they hold or seem to hold Which would basically mean that if inflation remains sticky and not coming down to their 2% target And the longer they hold is the more the dollar will end up being a buyer So this week is going to be quite an important week in terms of Where the market prices in or how the market prices in the next rate cut whether it's going to be sooner or later? So internationally highlights include the UK's fourth quarter Q4 GDP Inflation and unemployment data as well as Q4 flash GDP growth rates for Japan So the UK have got a lot of data coming out as well and also as well Japan that's going to be interesting as it may if GDP growth kind of holds up, which I think it's expected to then the Bank of Japan a likely or potentially likely to Hike rates a bit sooner. Of course, we'll get into the Japanese data a bit later in the video and inflation rates for the UK and Switzerland will be followed along with unemployment rates for Australia finally Germany's ZEW economic sentiment and Australia's NAB business confidence are set to be released So lots of data coming out especially for the dollar the Pound as well as Japan so yep, that's it for For the upcoming week. So before we do get into the analysis just wanted to go over Trade analysis and trade that I'd taken a couple of weeks ago, and it was on the Euro Swiss and Euro Swiss this was the Chart and this was basically the this the setup And so if we go into the discord group on the 30th of the first Tuesday the 30th of January I basically said to everyone in the group said due to the Eurozone dodging of a session There is an opportunity to buy the Euro my pick is the Euro Swiss and this is this just come after the The Europe in Eurozone had dodged the recession. So I expected actually some upside and the Swiss Frank is basically on our Cell list, and it's been like that for the past few weeks and So there was really a kind of a divergence in terms of you know Trying to buy the Euro and the Euro I'm actually not not bullish on overall, but I think there was If I'm gonna buy the Euro it was gonna be a base against a week What I thought would be a weaker currency and it was gonna be against the Swiss Frank. So This was really the setup and just going back to the discord group. This was really the setup right here And so if you open it in the browser This is what I'd seen at the time. So we come down into this daily demand zone right here And so yeah, it was pretty much a Buy right in my book so This is where I'd entered. So I'd entered into three positions or I was hoping to get into three positions, which I ended up getting into three positions. So the first Entry was a market order at the zero point nine three five one Right so that white line that extends there. That was the first entry the second Entry was a 50% pullback pending order by at zero point nine three three three And then the third if prices had pulled back would have been at the zero point nine three one six and so Many of the guys all of the guys in the discord group know exactly how you know how to enter and how we've been entering for years and years, this is basically the method that I use and If it comes back then brilliant if it doesn't then in terms of, you know, putting back and triggering me into these positions then Then brilliant, right? But if it doesn't then at least I'm in a market order there, but on this trade what I've done You know, just basically what price had done is it had come down triggered me into all three positions My stop-loss was at the zero point nine two nine sevens I think it was one nine eights around there and so I've been triggered into all three positions now at this point It does get a bit, you know, bit scary because you could lose three positions But can't being confident of course and doing my backtesting and stuff I know that this works and they've been trading like this for years And so there is obviously a chance that I could lose all three. That's fine But you know pretty much if I'm right about this trade then The risk reward is typically really good, but on this trade what I did was because I Wasn't necessarily, you know overly confident on the euro and although I did think that it was gonna go higher What I decided to do was take profit along the way So as we got triggered into all three positions what I did on this and on the The pending order that was at the bottom right here About 95% of the tradesman. I took profit off there at a one-to-one. Yeah, and then What I also did when prices started going higher took took a one-to-one off here So now I am In a profitable position right thinking that I can hold this and swing trade this but as Data started coming out for the euro. I wasn't too confident that prices would go too much higher Of course, there was always a possibility that prices could go all the way up to you know reach these highs, but I Just thought what I'd do is I was in some other Swiss Frank trades as well Many of you know I was in the Aussie Swiss as well as the dollar Swiss And so what I thought I'd do is I'll just take profit off at On the final position about a 1.1 to 1 which was around here on the final position rather than trying to swing trade it Maybe up here. I was kind of swing trading the other Swiss positions. And so on the Wednesday the 7th of February I managed to completely get out of all positions. So three wins On the euro Swiss Frank. So that ended up being a a really good trade and a really good example of You know just high-time thing trading and really how to manage the trades and and the fundamentals playing out in In our favor, right? So that was the the trade breakdown. Anyways, let's get into the week's analysis and looking at the dollar Index and this is the dollar of index. This is the equally weighted dollar index and If you want the calculations for the weekly dollar index, I do have a video on my YouTube channel I'll put the link up in the top right-hand side as well as the description Box in if you're watching this on YouTube. So last week I was saying I'm pretty much bullish and waiting for you know prices to kind of go to the upsides the dollar Fundamentally this week pal Tells 60 minutes fed is wary of cutting rates too soon So power a race that a March interest rate cut is unlikely and 2024 rate forecast probably haven't changed Dramatically and so it says here the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Americans May have to wait beyond March for the central bank to cut rates as officials look for more economic data To confirm that inflation is headed down to 2% in an interview conducted Thursdays with Thursday with CBS's 60 minutes that aired Sunday evening power saw to explain the central banks rationale for eventual reductions to a broad public audience and he said the danger of moving too soon is that jobs not quite done and that The really good readings we've had for the last six months Somehow turned out not to be a true indicator of where inflation is heading Powell said in the interview with CBS Scott Pelly according to a transcript provided by the network. So I've been saying this for months. If not years if anyone's been following me for that long You know that really prices are driven by Monetary policy right a monetary policy divergence on what we're having is is the pricing out of rate cuts Which is usually bullish for a currency or appreciates a currency and the market had got really too far ahead of itself And so on the charts, that's pretty much what you're seeing But this week prices really didn't go anywhere for the for the dollar and I think the market is really waiting for this week This week CPI data to really kind of confirm whether the dollar And the Federal Reserve are likely to have a cut rates sooner or later now if they're likely to cut sooner Then what you're likely to have is The dollar set off right so if inflation Really starts to surprise to the downside and goes towards their 2% target then the dollar is actually likely to start to set off right and there's an opportunity there if it is You know if it remains sticky or actually goes higher then in fact, I think the dollar is likely to rally So I'm still a dollar bullet the moment of course that can change if You know the data support has to support the narrative the data doesn't support, you know Rate hikes later. I'm sorry rate cuts later then Then there's an opportunity to look for some shorts on the dollar Now looking at the the dollar yen and again with some decent news With with the dollar, you know prices basically pushed past this supply zone right here Did react from it last week, but then there was some data Out I think it was for was it for the end? I can't remember if it was for the for the end last week. I know last week's data was consumer confidence. So It must have been for the dollar that kind of pushed it higher anyways The yen is gonna be interesting because I Think it's one of the trades for 2024 in terms of buying the yen and it says here Japanese firms boosting pay for young workers is good news for the Bank of Japan and so big firms have really announced starting salary pay gains may translate to smaller firms overall wages and push Bank of Japan so Japanese firms are increasingly boosting starting pay for young employees Potentially building longer term momentum for overall wage growth in a welcome development for the Bank of Japan as it seeks evidence of a virtuous wage price cycles or wage prices Contribute to inflation and if inflation starts to rise due to wage Price hikes from companies Then the Bank of Japan are likely to hike rates And they're the only G10 central bank that are you know looking to hike rates while everyone is looking to cut rates So there's a massive divergence there. And so for me the yen is looking like Buy but of course the data needs to support the narrative Of course if there's no point in saying I want to be a buyer at the end If the data doesn't show that you should be a buyer at the end He says here the positive news on pay comes as annual wage negotiations have kicked into high gear If wage gain momentum carries over into this year The Bank of Japan is expected to end the world's last negative interest rate regime by April According to a majority of economists surveyed in January by Bloomberg. So I think technically it's not necessarily a pair That I'm watching and unless actually I think this week might actually be a Might be a decent start to a bit of a rollover if the the The US inflation does start to actually come in a bit lower So I think there could be a decent short as well as any kind of data this week And we've got GDP but more importantly inflation data for the yen if that starts to come out Higher than I think actually the dollar yen with you know The Federal Reserve looking to cut rates and the yen looking to High crates. I think we could see a really nice Swing trade to the downside, but again the trigger is really the data supporting The narrative so that's where you are if you do want to be a buyer of the of the dollar yen Then you're looking at this area here in terms of demand so pull back into this so here or Pull back into the zone down here before looking at getting long dollar CAD dollar CAD this week we were saying last week Prices could come up here and start to reverse But we did have basically prices bounce off of this level of supply and so not necessarily a pair that I'm interested in trading but If you are I do think that Again, it's this difficult one to kind of read. I think the The that it's really about the dollar and whether inflation is coming higher or lower So across the board any kind of dollar crosses this week going to be driven by What what happens with the data if you are looking at buying the dollar though? I think pull back into this so maybe maybe now matter of fact Maybe a bit deeper into that zone should be nice if you are looking for a sell trade I think the fresher area of supply Up at the one three sixes should be a decent area to look for a short trade pound Dollar the pound dollar again not really a pair that I'm looking at trading for now But that could change obviously depending on what happens this week The pound does have a lot of news coming out. So you've got unemployment rate on What's that Tuesday, then you've got GDP and then you've got retail sales as well. So Lots of data coming out. We have bounced. We did end up bouncing off of this level that I thought You know was it was a decent level of not only demand, but it had the confidence of support and resistance It was the bottom of this auction as well Where prices made higher highs so a really nice technical level, but in terms of fundamentals, I think the This pair isn't necessarily the best pair to look for a trade in terms of divergence is the UK says job market was tighter than expected in late 2023 so Unemployment rate lower and and inactivity higher than estimated. So the new data meant to improve flagship labor force Survey, so what does that all mean? It says here unemployment by the new measure was three point nine percent in the three months Through November well below the four point two estimated using previous data office of the national statistics said Monday Joblessness has now fallen in four straight months according to the improved data set when the temporary Experimental figures had shown it to be flat over the same period So the combination of factors suggests that labor market has not Loosened as much as thought and may be putting more upward pressure on wages and prices That may help persuade the Bank of England to wait for wait a few more months before starting to cut interest rates So the fact that labor market hasn't All unemployment hasn't risen Is and and you know, it has an effect on pressure on wages and prices prices being inflation it Obviously hasn't the effect that the Bank of England If it isn't coming down the Bank of England are likely to hold for longer. So in fact that is more of a positive and then not very even positive but just more appreciative of the for the For the pound and so that's the reason why you're seeing this this potential bounce at the moment I'm actually over a buyer of the pound, but just not against the dollar But if you are looking to buy the pound and again, it depends on what happens this week Any pullbacks will be nice and if you're looking to be a seller of the pound I think pull back up into this the highs of the 128 is going to be a decent area to look for or maybe even just above that could be nice for a potential sell there pounds yen we are at a very interesting level and Again, I think there could be a decent turning point driven by data if data comes out and supports Maybe some pounds selling then then I think we could have prices start to pull back Around here, and this could be a really nice short trade There is a stop-hunt opportunity as well above that for anyone who looking for shorts on the Pounds yen, so that's where we are with that in terms of buying You've got also another demand zone right there and so any pullbacks into that zone I think is going to be nice technically for a potential buy You also have some support and resistance right there so level level within that area of demand Looking at the euro dollar so the euro dollar the euro Again, not necessarily an all-out buy. I'm out of the I said the euro Swiss My bias is probably still looking a bit bearish simply because Although they avoided a recession It does look like they could be one of the first central banks to look to cut rates And so it says here the ECB rate cut timing is only First tricky call in easing process the size of steps easing pace and endpoint are all up for debate and Officials have shared widely different views on how to proceed So it says here officials are currently hammering out whether the cut whether to begin cuts in April or June and so You know the fact that they're considering April in the market is looking like his pricing in April doesn't look good And they would be one of the first central banks to cut rate This is the reason why I actually exited the the euro Swiss And so it says here comparatively simple decision considering they must also weigh the size of their steps How quickly they want to proceed and where borrowing costs will end up? So the eventual strategy hinges on the clauses or say the clauses the pluses and minuses of acting sooner and slower versus later and more rapidly Governing council 26 member must also find a way of signaling their intentions without reigning on repeated pledges to be steered by data. So Yeah, the ECB had definitely have a bit of a headache at the moment and So we could see potentially more downsides You know to this to the euro dollar but I think at the moment this week is really going to be driven mainly by What happens with the US data this week and so? Strong US data should push prices to the downside Anything where the where the Fed with a market things at the Fed are likely to cut sooner Then actually in fact, you probably will see prices moves to the upside On the euro dollar. So again, probably it's more waiting the news For this week Euro yen. I am bearish on this of prices have come up to actually Decent level and so I do want to look for some short trades Hopefully slightly higher if prices can come up to this This higher round here, then I really want to be a buyer there or just above that area there And it's going to be a really nice stock hunt. So let's see what happens Pull that up a little bitch. I put that. Yeah, that's that's there as that is where supply is Right there. So yeah, that's nice. I've got a lot of confluence nice clean level and so buying the yen for me is Again, just just need the data to kind of support my buying and so let's see what happens on this if you are looking to buy the Euro right then really you're looking for a pullback down into this demand zone probably with a bit more confidence of the That support and resistance level within that level area of of demand Euro pounds Euro pounds the Bank of England are expected to Cut later than then Europe. So I do think any pullbacks up into that zone there should be actually quite nice for a sell At the moment, we've just seen prices really kind of auction Within here, but if they're you know data does change and the euro does get its act together Then I think actually this could be a decent pullback buy But for now my bias is really looking for short trades And I'm looking for more of a fresher area of supply. So prices pull back to the 85 50s 85 90s, then I think that's going to be really nice for a sell trade Aussie dollar Aussie dollar again I'm actually a bullish on the Australian dollar but I think Well, not against the the US dollar, but let's see what happens here this week and again this level is probably holding up based off of Not only the the dollar news or the expectation but also as well, I think NAB confidence doesn't necessarily have a Great or any kind of major impact on price So I think this week is really going to be again core inflation and The the Australian dollar could actually be quite a good decent buy against the the dollar if You know the Fed a signaling that they may cut sooner or the market thinks that the Fed will cut sooner So at the moment, I think price of the Australian dollar is going to be driven mainly by What happens with the Fed rather than the the Australian central bank the RBA? but if you do want to be a seller and buy the dollar the US dollar Then any pullbacks up into that supply zone there is going to really be where you want to look for a trade Technically and finally gold. So gold Again with dollar strength this week You've seen basically a sell-off not say a sell-off, but that's basically just a bit of a pullback And so really gold is going to be driven by the interest rate cutting cycle And again, if price does come down here, you want to be a buyer of gold I think that's going to be a really nice level to look for any kind of buying again you need really the confluence of the dollar to be to be weak in terms of Interest rate cuts If you are looking for short trades and a pullback up into this fresh area of supply is really where you're looking for sell trades overall Gold as you know central banks are in there cutting cycle Gold should really be a buy over the medium to long term. So any pullbacks I think should be buying opportunities. It depends on when you want to buy a right just about the timing. So overall, I am Would be bullish on gold if it pulls back to even, you know in 90 the 1970s 1980s 1970s that would be a really good technical buy. I think but Again being slightly more bullish on the dollar at the moment. I don't think I Want to be a buyer of gold just at these levels just yet But again, it really does depend upon what happens this week For with inflation, so that's it for this week. Hope you enjoyed the content and found it useful I wish you a great trading week and I'll speak to you soon until the next video