 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Happy Halloween and welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com nightly update show. If you are brand new to the channel, thank you very much for spending a few minutes with us. Like, subscribe, share, ring the bell, whatever it's called. Get notified when we upload so you could be a step of the game, hopefully getting value and continuing to get value down the road. Before we get started, again, guys, yesterday we started running a 48 hour sale for Halloween. Again, if you're ever curious about PIVOTS and seeing if it's a right fit for you, again, like I've been saying for years, I don't think PIVOTS are a right fit for everybody. But if you are curious about PIVOTS and you've been watching this broadcast for a long time, we're running a $47 30-day trial. Kick the tire, see if it's right for you. If it is, you'll completely see the mark in a little bit of a different point of view. If it's not, it's cool as well. But again, I always said this for years and years and years before you commit to any type of trading style. It's your job to kind of go through everything to see something that matches your personality or account size or experience level, your pain threshold, and all that good stuff. So hopefully, if you are interested, you have till tonight. You have till tonight to take advantage. So let's talk about the tape. We are at the end of October. Hopefully, everybody had a good October. The market closed today to the green side. The problem is the market now is down three consecutive months. At the end of the day, as long as you're above ground, as long as you're breathing, as long as you're healthy, it's a good day. Everything else is a cherry on top. But from the market point of view, the bulls have a little bit of work to do. We talked about last night, the two big levels going into today's session. 350 to the upside, 346.45 to the downside. As you can see, we held yesterday's low and took out yesterday's high. And this is now the highest close in the last four days. Does that mean we're going to rally to all-time highs? It doesn't mean anything. All it means is we had a really big move down. We finally reclaimed back the five-day moving average, which we talked about yesterday. We got back the 150-day EMA. And unless Jerome Powell, we'll talk about that in a second. But until Jerome Powell, unless he screws it up tomorrow, we should have a shot. We have a legitimate shot and we'll talk about AMD and the potential curveball for tomorrow. But at least if we do confirm today's channel tomorrow and the bulls can kind of negate this AMD earnings again, we'll talk about AMD in a second. There is a shot if we can confirm today's highs, we could get another leg up into this 53 level of 54, 53-54 level, which will be roughly the 150-day moving average. And that's going to be basically a back test to where we broke down in the first place. So again, before we start talking about rally, Santa Claus rally, this rally, that rally, let us confirm, right? Let the market at least confirm today's channel tomorrow to see if they could stretch to the 353 level. Obviously, the big story for tomorrow is going to be Jerome Powell. Again, tomorrow is a Fed Day. Is it possible that the market does absolutely nothing until two o'clock? Of course, that's absolutely on the table. We've seen Fed Days that were very, very aggressive. We've seen Fed Days that are very, very muted. And until you really see what the day it holds, it's very, very tough to kind of try to will yourself into an opinion because we all know the market is going to be dictated on what he says. Future rate hikes or future rate pauses, whatever the case may be. But I'm assuming the fireworks are going to start tomorrow after two o'clock, after the rate decision, after the 230 Q&A session and we'll see what happens there. But from the surface, right? From the surface, if the bulls can just confirm today's channel, which is 351.25, there is at least on the surface a potential move back into this 353.354 level. Here's the curveball, right? AMD came out with earnings after the close. And the buyers were coming in ahead of the earnings. They were betting the 100 weeklies, the 105 weeklies. No soup for you, right? Soup Nazi. No soup for you. AMD came out with earnings, as you can see, down about 4.5% after the close. Very, very solved guidance. As you can imagine, every single semiconductor is getting affected, right? Everything is down along with AMD and that is the problem. That is the problem because if you look at the Q's after the close, predominantly, the Q's are down about $1.50 after the close because predominantly the NASDAQ 100 is made up of semiconductors, biotechs, and software stocks and everything trades in tandem. So it's going to be very, very interesting to see if the bulls buy the dip, right? Usually bulls and dip underneath market supply is never, you know, it's never a right fit. But again, even the worst markets that we've traded, even going back to, let me just show you, even going back to 2022 where 80%, right? 80, 85% was below the 50-day moving average, had three, four, five days worth of rallies. So it's very possible, right? Again, it's always, always possible it's on the table that the bulls can negate, kind of negate these AMD earnings, reclaim back the 150-day moving average and start moving higher. The big number for tomorrow to the downside was the same number as we discussed last night, right? If you guys remember, we talked about 34640s to the downside. That was the low from two days ago. Look at the low from today, 34660s. So if Powell says something that the market does not like, obviously anything below this 34640s, if it starts to lose, then, yeah, we're going to go right back down to last week's lows. So it's super important to know your ranges before the day starts. So when there is some sort of blip radar news that comes out of Jay Powell's mouth, you're not going to be caught off guard. And especially that is very, very important if you're trading any type of ETF, spies, cues, if you're trading any beta memes, you know, the Microsofts of the world, Metas, Netflix, Amazons of the world, you better know your prices because you can't just randomly guess or have an opinion where you think the stocks are to go. You need these price actions to confirm it. It's very, very important to do so. So we'll see, you know, we'll see exactly what happens of Jay Powell. Tomorrow, you know, tomorrow, let's see, I'm just looking at the earnings front. Not a big, you know, not a big, big day for earnings tomorrow. You have some names. Today's obviously AMD Caterpillar had a horrible quarter. And so considering that Caterpillar was down 7% today, you have to give a kudos to the bulls. AMD again, like I said, down 4.5%. And by the way, AMD, guys, watch AMD for tomorrow, right? It is trading roughly around 94 bucks right now. Watch the bottom channel here. You see how it held the bottom channel here, the September lows, and it held the September lows again four days ago. Keep an eye on AMD, because if there is selling pressure tomorrow and they don't buy the dip and they start losing the last week's lows, you know, this thing could go lower. But it's only down 4.5% for after earnings. If they continue to lean on it overnight and into tomorrow, you could see a potential move down 10%. We'll see, you know, we'll see. But again, watch the bottom channel here. I'm definitely watching the bottom channel here for tomorrow's session. A bunch of names that we talked about for today, they're still valid for tomorrow. Microsoft put an inside day. That still looks good. Netflix put an inside day. And you can see here now, look how many times Netflix has held this top channel here. You see how many times it's got to reject it off the top of the channel here? You see this Bollinger Band? If Netflix finally gets above this Bollinger Band, boy, oh boy, this thing could wake up. This is out three days in a row that has got rejected off the upper Bollinger Band. All it needs to do is stretch. Again, this is assuming the market can sustain one more day of potential rally. Okay, we'll see about that. The one stock that did not get saved today was the video, right? We talked about this for the last couple of days. You know, and hit was really awesome today right out the gate. It was literally the only pivot. I literally, this is the only trade I took the whole day. And honestly, sometimes, you know, when you have a stalemate market kind of waiting, right? Literally waiting for an event. Sometimes, again, it's not how many you trade. It's how many you trade properly. So, you know, you can see here, you know, Tesla, we were waiting for the 94 area to stop the right at 94. Didn't, you know, didn't price improve there. But this was literally the only pivot of the day. NVIDIA, more China news this morning, 404, if it builds below, can flush and test last week's lows. Yeah, yeah, I would say it did that, right? I was literally done with the trade in seven minutes. I think all of us were pretty much done in five to seven minutes. This was literally the open, right? This was literally the open. It took out this 404, put in 402, rallied back. Once it lost that 402, you know, I covered this thing in the 395s when all we doubt the 392. So congratulations guys. Again, sometimes you don't need 200 stocks. Sometimes you just need the right ones. I've been saying this all along. 90, 95% of all my trades, literally all my trades are the same 10 stocks. Tesla, NVIDIA, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Apple, you know, the mega cap darlings. Because again, when you're trading the same names over and over and over again, you know what the stock is going to, you should know at least have a good idea of what the stock is going to do when it starts losing a major level or confirming a major level. That's one of the greatest things about getting to know your group. And I've been saying this all along, you know, if I had to go back, right, literally go back and do it over again, right, 24 going on 25 years, let's start with the group. Okay, whatever the group is, trading energy, trading, you know, technology, whatever the group is, right? Consumer cyclicals get to know that group, take five or six stocks in that group and just trade them over and over and over them both long and short. Understand their tendencies, understand their liquidity, understand their average true range. Understand everything about the stock because again, when you trade random stocks and that's one of the bigger problems that new traders have, they trade the hot stock of the day, they trade the random stock that everybody's watching. Again, think about this again, if the theory is 90, 95% of all new traders lose money, well, why would you trade exactly the same stock as them? It makes no sense if you think about it, it makes all the sense of the world to avoid, right? Avoid the public, fade the public then going into the same stock as everybody else. So my little piece of advice, if you are brand new and again, it doesn't need to be a trading with me, it doesn't need to be trading with anybody, it doesn't need to be trading technology. Take a group, right? Learn their tendencies, try to figure out every dynamics about that group and keep on trading it over and over and over again. Okay, so going into tomorrow guys, again, I believe, going into tomorrow, I believe the big earnings for tomorrow I think is Qualcomm, right? You got Qualcomm tomorrow, you got Roku tomorrow, Youngblans, nothing really there. Garmin, wow, Garmin's still in business. Most of the last time somebody bought a Garmin product. So some of you guys don't even know what Garmin is. First navigation system. Wavefair, nothing crazy. Thursday is the big one, right? Thursday is the big one. We got Coinbase, we got Shopify, we got Apple, we got Starbucks, Moderna. So Thursday is going to be a very, very big night for earnings and we will see how Apple and the rest of the Musketeers dictate what happens. So again, we know our level is going into tomorrow, guys. We know exactly what the market needs to do to go to the upside. Again, confirm today's channel, 351.25, to the downside, 346.40. Something's going to give here, guys. Something's going to give here ahead of Jerome Powell and we'll see. We'll see exactly how the market reacts to it. Guys, got to go. It is Halloween time. I want to record this video before my dog starts barking, before the door starts ringing. These poodles and no joke, especially when strangers are coming through the door. Guys, have a great night, everybody. God bless, stay safe, hope everybody is doing well again. If you are interested in Pivots guys, you have till tonight for the flash sale and hopefully I'll see a lot of new faces tomorrow. Take care, guys. Have a great night.