 What is up, everybody? Welcome to the Fando fantasy Q&A for Thursday night football for week 13 I Kind of use this bit a lot But I'm gonna be the first to say I can't believe it's week 13. It feels like the season has flew by But we got a pretty intriguing game To kick off the weekend tonight with the Dallas Cowboys at the New Orleans Saints dome game That's always good for fantasy points over under 46 According to Fandle sports books spread six and a half in favor of the road Cowboys, of course We have starting quarterback news with Taysom Hill starting for the Saints his salaries a little bit low on Fandle so we'll talk about how that impacts Civil game slate strategy for tonight's matchup, but as always this is a Q&A so get those questions ready for the YouTube Twitch Twitter whatever Facebook whatever whatever your Platform of choice is get those questions ready get those in and we will break down this game But we can also break down this weekend. I get a lot of start-sit questions during this show Which I usually try to get to of course, I'm focusing Primarily on single-game strategy for the Thursday night game But I will recommend that everyone goes to number fire calm and Checks out my start-sit column, which is a little not a little bit of a non-traditional start-sit column It it shows basically every player you would consider in a 12 team league and They're their probability through thousands of slate simulations based in number fires projections that they finish as Relevant fantasy assets of a quarterbacks tight ends. It's top 12 weeks for running back and receiver. It's top 24 weeks So I always point people to that because it can really help you contextualize the odds and the probability And really how close certain things are between the players you're trying to figure out whether you should start or sit Usually it's pretty close. And if you look at rankings, it can be hard to gauge that So that's one of my favorite pieces that I do over at number fire But you also check out the full DFS slate preview Podcast that I do with Jim Sonos called the heat check we do that every Thursday that we recap the slate every Monday We went through a lot of relevant trends for this week key injuries and how that's impacting us And our in our view of the slate. I talked about the probability that certain players Certain receivers at low salaries actually have big games from a DFS standpoint So it's not all just your straight-up picks With with no no sort of deeper analysis. I think a lot of times that that When I look back I'm most impressed by like the the trends that we dig into and I go through The the low salary receivers and how that impacts the slate for this week because we have running back value But we have stud running backs with Jonathan Taylor and Joe mix and but whether whether the Value at receivers viable or not is a different question. So again get those questions in And I'm gonna start by breaking down as I always do this slate from a top-down perspective And again, I feel free to throw me those starts at questions But if you have specifics on this game Those are much preferred because it's a lot easier to answer specifics than it is to go through plays You know one by one just kind of whatever I see for tonight Speaking of that top-down view. I like to start with passing rushing and receiving defense Numbers for each side in the game That we are featuring We have the Dallas defense rating out as a top six unit in terms of passing that expected points per drop back Allowed to opposing quarterbacks their top 10 and success rate So the success rate number being top 10 really implies that they don't allow really consistent gains and adjusted for quarterback opponents They've been pretty good from an adjusted fantasy point per drop back standpoint These saints a little bit more of a mid-level defense in terms of stopping the pass Where their strength is is right here against running backs This is something that the saints have been pretty good at all season Obviously, they're they're just outliers in this sense And you know, usually when you see a massively negative rushing net expected points per carry number You can say okay, maybe that's in fumbles. Maybe they're a little bit overrated from that standpoint, but With the rushing success rate being so low You know that it's it's really hard to turn out consistent gains against this defense on the ground So that could push the Cowboys to a little bit more of a pass-heavy script And they're already pretty pass-heavy ranking 13th and pass rate in the NFL Looking at there basically non garbage time plays ruling out when their pre snap win probabilities below 20% Above 80% they are super fast and they like to throw the ball Injected in this matchup. Dak Prescott should have plenty of passing volume That might not necessarily funnel to the running backs for the Cowboys with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard because Saints just kind of put the clamps down on running backs in general of course From a rushing standpoint, but also specifically from a receiving standpoint And then we have pretty beatable matchups here as far as the wide receivers go Both teams outside the top 20 in player level adjusted Fandall points per target allowed to receivers the saints pretty stingy I Against tight ends also I misspoke Dallas puts the clamps down on on running backs out of the backfield The saints are a little bit more susceptible so that would lead to potentially a little bit more Tony Pollard action out of the backfield So that's my bad Lots of numbers to look at here But also we see that the Saints pretty typically an up-tempo offense And we would expect that this pass rate number to stay pretty low with tasting pill That's what we saw with him last year in his starts He did average over 200 passing yards per game About 10 carries a game 50 rushing yards per contest. It's pretty much what we should expect here For the Saints to keep this one close most likely we're looking at Taysom Hill to Run the ball for this team to keep the ball on the ground. No, I haven't come here It's going to go through marketing room primarily But that's kind of the recipe for the Saints for tonight digging into some optimal lineup trends based on comparable games in my database This goes back to 2019 Looking at games with totals of 44 to 48 spreads of about you know Four and a half to eight and a half so about those middling spreads. It's kind of what we get tonight That's Decent right like that's a decent spread, but it's also not blowout potential at least from a spread perspective in these games We see that quarterbacks Typically end up as the MVP more frequently than they do in overall games because the total still high enough For quarterbacks to generate production But not so high that we're seeing tons of production from the flex level players the flex position players So we see that the quarterbacks outperform Expectation by about six percentage points running backs in these game scripts have actually underperformed overall Tight ends still always low. I don't think we really have a tight end viable MVP option for tonight And then receivers dip down a little bit again kind of going back to the fact that you need really high over unders for wide receivers to have blow-up games overall the totals Decent it's not bad, but it's also not 50 plus that's usually whenever we can see receivers Really go off as far as MVP splits. We see that the MVP in similar games to this one Comes from the favorite in about 65% of these lineups That's up from 59% in the overall split and of course the most common the most likely MVP incomparable games to this is the favorite quarterback, which puts us primarily on Depress Scott Which shouldn't be surprising and he does right out top in my simulations, which I'll get to in just one second But notably whenever the MVP does come from an underdog in These games it still is like a wide receiver. I don't know if You got to be pretty Contrarian to go with Trayquan Smith or Marquez Callaway at your MVP Very easily could could pay off because we have such obvious MVP options that don't include the Saints receivers but that's kind of one angle depending on how How out there you'd like to get with your game theory and then as always kickers about the same in this split because realistically this is about a down the barrel type of game Middling spread middling over under it's pretty comparable to a lot of games and kickers In the overall split about 34% likely to make it into the optimal lineup and about 34% likely in these games as well All right, I'm gonna jump into some questions Most likely if they're about the single game I will show Well, I'll show you guys my simulations anyway for tonight But let's just see let's get caught up here a question from Josh on Facebook. Should I bench Wilson in Metcalf? so Not saying this to promote my own work, but this is a perfect example of Why I like the start sit column that I do on number fire again You can just go to number fire calm and find it should be featured toward the top of that page, but The question is who are your alternatives? And that's the crux of the start sit piece But it'll show you The the frequency that Russell Wilson is a top 12 quarterback And it just depends on who you have available and if they are much more likely or even remotely more likely To finish as a top 12 password than Russ then you can really Decide from there as for Metcalf. I mean, I'm not gonna just say check out my article But Metcalf. I'm a little bit worried about his target shares have been pretty bleak The past few weeks the results haven't been there. I don't know if he's banged up But they've been going to Tyler lock it more that connections been back before the Russ and DK Metcalf connection has been so Again, it's hard to say to bench DK Metcalf at all, but he still he still writes out as a pretty solid Play overall according to the slate simulations that I run to generate the start sit column But I would say check that out and see who your options are who might be available on the waiver wire Who's on your bench and compare DK's odds to theirs? Question from Grim fan Gallops value tonight is Cooper playing. So yeah, all three of the top receivers for The Cowboys are going to be Active it's the third time all season week one and like week nine I think when they played the Falcons whatever week that was and I have some notes on the usage among those top three receivers But as far as actual value goes for Gallop, he's fine The salary of ten thousand five hundred. It's not too high. It's not too low It it's fine I think that he's a pretty clear number three which is not like a hot take But I'll get to those numbers here and again the two games that all three receivers have played And they haven't really played full games in either of those with Gallop leaving early It's just kind of a messy situation CDLM leads the Cowboys with a 24 percent target share Cooper's at 22 percent so close But you know a little bit behind and then Michael Gallops down at 13 percent So that makes them sound like a distant third and while I still would rank him third regardless Here's one number that I think is at least impressive for Gallop's potential tonight Because we're looking at such small samples rather than divide targets by game We can divide it by routes run and in that context lamb leads that trio with 32 percent So you've got a target on 32 percent of his routes in these games that these guys shared Cooper's at 23 percent Gallops at 21 percent So the gap between Gallop and Cooper not that massive CDLM easily the best overall process play of the three especially because he has the the balance of Downfield work in volume that Amari Cooper doesn't quite have as much of But for me it's gonna go lamb Cooper Gallop But Gallop definitely even though he rates out as a mid-level value, which I know is the question grim fan Still a very worthwhile Play especially if you're playing Dak Prescott at MVP Okay question from Ryan should I start Dallas D or no because of taste and Hill again, that depends on your Your alternatives you can check out the projections on number fire to look at alternatives. I you know taste him Hill He's been charged with some turnover where he plays according to pro football focus this year He was below league average in per drop back passing that expected points last year. He was at a point oh six in his starts The average about a point. I mean this year. It's a point one. Oh last year was a little bit higher But about a point one two it's about half as efficient definitely nothing to worry about defensively, but you might have better options Although, you know with the if you if you play the angle that you know Dallas plays from ahead forces taste and Hill to have to throw we know that that could be do good things So I'm kind of like lukewarm on the Dallas defense for tonight probably do a little bit better, but That's whenever I and defense is I don't really do a whole lot of analysis on myself So that's why I let number fire do the work for me on those Okay, Josh is asking out of the out of these three. I need to Gronk pits knocks need to So I'm gonna Okay, I'll run this through my start simulator, but I doubt it's gonna be Dawson knocks here Between those I love Rob Gronkowski this week He I know he had the production this past week, but he also had just a phenomenal role So I'll see what I'll see what the simulations here have to say So yeah, and I'm leaving it a half PPR because I don't you didn't specify, but that's you know, it's fine With the implied team total even being low for the the Falcons here It's it's kind of hard to make a case for Dawson knocks within that trio Gronkowski again had a phenomenal workload Kyle pits the production hasn't been there, but for Dawson knocks. He's still got a lot of competition for targets So I'm gonna go ahead and play the safe route and go with Rob Gronkowski and Kyle pits out of those Three Kyle on YouTube is asking taste some Hill MVP. Great question Yes and no It comes down to your risk tolerance for MVP plays Very obviously taste some Hill at seven thousand on Fandall rates out as like a slate busting medium-level value for tonight but his Top score odds and this is all based on Number fires projections and then I simulate things out 10,000 times just to see what what's the most likely outcome How frequently certain players lead the slate and Fandall points how frequently are they top five? Tasting those third barely let's call him second I would probably bump this up a hair if I were projecting him I would you know bump up his is half look at his Fandall points by about half a point even one point like 16 and a half 17 here, but either way What we're seeing is that? Dak Prescott is still the best bet to lead the slate in Fandall points, which shouldn't surprise anybody In on Fandall with no, you know, everyone's the same salary regardless of whether you play them at flex or MVP It's hard to go against Dak, especially with those historical optimal lineup numbers Showing that we want when we can and we can the favorite quarterback in games like this, so That's the case against Taysum Hill The case for Taysum Hill is just that he's a rushing quarterback and rushing quarterbacks can bust open any slate again He threw for over 200 yards in his four starts last year Averaged over I don't want to say through for over 400 and like you don't want to apply each of them But you know he Like he has that Konami code Upside shout out to rich rebar on that one But again last year 52.3 rushing yards per game in his starts with almost 10 carries. That's phenomenal I would say that if I were really to project out popularity numbers at MVP Even with Taysum Hill being under salaried. He's not gonna come close to Dak Just because Dak is the favorite. He's got a higher implied team total. He's got a lot of stacking candidates So there's still leverage there most likely with Taysum Hill at almost 20% odds to lead the slate in Fandall points Bigger question is like do you stack him with anybody? Can you play him with Mark Ingram? There's probably a pretty severe negative correlation between he and Ingram Just because Taysum Hill would derive so much of his value from rushing and specifically rushing touchdowns But who do you stack him with like Trey Conn Smith's fine? He would be my number one among their pass catchers between he Callaway And really anyone else. I mean low Jordan Humphrey ran a few random He can get a downfield target or two But it's not really enough unless you're playing the angle that this game is extremely low scoring So the question becomes can you play Taysum Hill by himself? At MVP with four Cowboys. I think that that's very possible to be the optimal lineup I think that it's really intriguing. So it's like yes and no He's probably more likely to be The MVP then he'll be rostered as MVP The question just becomes like is there enough for him to produce if we don't have a viable stack candidate for him So, I mean again, I'm gonna go with that number one Because Everything tells me to but I still love Taysum Hill as the MVP and I have nothing against it there Seth on YouTube is asking should I start Gallup over Judy? I'll run that through the Sims Just because Judy's playing You know, I'll cut off the main slate But the majority of my research at this point in the week is through Thursday night and the main slate on Fandall but Judy, I mean, I want to love Jerry Judy, but the market shares for the Broncos have been like Really really frustrating. We've seen multiple games with as they're getting healthier We've seen multiple games from them where nobody's had more than four targets and that's an issue, right? Now Michael Gallup should be in line for pretty steady volume here, especially against a team that that stifles the run But as expected with pretty Pretty even projections. It's it's about a coin flip here Judy is rating out a little bit more likely to get to 15 Fandall points He's rating out a little bit more likely or a half PPR. So I always call him fail points, but half PPR points So he's like a little more likely that then Michael Gallup. I Kind of don't like such a low implied team total for for the Broncos though. Just 19 points I'm this is a tough one because it's so close But I would lean Jerry Judy if I had to I think that if I was there at the same thing I would be in Judy for myself in my own lineup. So I'm gonna say Judy there Johnny on Facebook is asking not for the game tonight start Jerry Judy or van Jefferson against the Jaguars I think I'm gonna go van. I don't care what these numbers say Van Jefferson was In a fantastic spot last week. He had four of ten downfield targets for the Rams He had nine targets overall Just one shy of Otto Beckham and Cooper cup for a team high Otto Beckham not practicing Wednesday. So he's not probably not a hundred percent But like, okay, so here's the thing This couldn't get any closer In terms of projections and also one of the reasons that Jefferson is projected a little bit lower here But has has the ability to overcome overperform. Sorry Judy in a simulation model is because I come for a dot and his eight I was really high So Judy's but that that kind of explains why this is leaning a little bit toward van But the number that really is is dictating this is the implied team total the touchdown equity for van Jefferson is just substantially higher than it is for Jerry Judy. And I think that's one thing that you can always look at Whenever you have coin flip decisions is whose team is expected to score more. It's very clearly here by eleven point two five points That it's gonna be the Rams So I love van this week and I feel pretty confident in the process behind starting van Jefferson over Jerry Judy Josh's burrows killing me. Yeah, he's had three straight down games I think that there's a good path for him to produce in a in a promising game I can actually just throw him in here and see what his odds are of getting to 20 but You know, the chargers do limit that they're good at defending the down to a pass they still face a pretty decent number of Downfield attempts and and like they're like 20th and a doc something like that. So they're really good at defending those But they've also haven't faced Jamar Chase and Jamar Chase is phenomenal T Higgins phenomenal on down for the targets as well You know, it's a pretty solid projection four out of ten times. He gets the 20 fandal points fantasy points Like I think that he's fine. It just depends on what your options are and again points you back to the start sit calm that I post on a number of fires so that you can compare his performance outcome range compared to other starters Brandon is asking should my co-worker Dustin make Gallup his MVP I Mean honestly I think you could do worse than Michael Gallup at MVP I'm not gonna get there. I can tell it's a bit of a joke, but you know, we still see a like a decent amount of MVP's be wide receivers I think Michael Gallup is very underrated from a talent standpoint and if you're willing to play Michael Gallup at MVP You can build So here's the thing A lot of people are gonna start their lineups like this To some degree and you have 12,167 for your final three plays on Fandall This slate could easily come down to which of the five players you play in your MVP Like you can you can build a really chalky Dak plus Taysum line up or he could differentiate it very easily by plugging in Gallup at MVP put Dak back at flex So I know it's kind of a joke But whenever we're looking at such an obvious slate with so much salary available because Taysum Hill's 7,000 I don't think it's really like that big of a joke to play Michael Gallup at MVP in some lineups if you're playing multiple lineups Adam's asking Chuba and Terry or David Montgomery and Hunter Renfro Definitely not The the Chuba side there just because his role has been pretty bad. They've been relying a bit more on Amir Abdullah I Think that Hunter Renfro is in a great spot long term the volume has been There the downfield targets got three downfield targets in the past three games his adot is Like seven and a half over the past three games, which is still about three yards shy of The receiver average, but he's getting a little bit more downfield work David Montgomery someone actually kind of featured a little bit I'm gonna start to call him. He's playing like 90% of the snaps for the Bears It's a really good role. So for me that one's pretty clearly going with the David Montgomery side DJ's asking will Ingram see any work if Khmer is back so Khmer is out Play foster Maro with Waller out. Yeah, so Mark Ingram is set for a pretty big workload Tonight Khmer has been rolled out. I Know that he's still listed as a game-time decision on Fandle because I don't think it's totally official but Number fires projecting this one without Alvin Khmer with Mark Ingram to play pretty heavy snaps and He is the very like he's the easiest leverage play at MVP if you plug him in You are by default not able to play either quarterback at MVP Again, you can still play Dak and Taysum in your lineup But if you play Mark Ingram at MVP that could be the difference between the same five player lineup winning a tournament in placing tied for like, you know, whatever just because Just because Dak ended up actually being the MVP and I know that sounds like place make a suboptimal decision But those little tweaks really add up in a single game format Did you just asking thoughts and Deandre Carter this weekend also just the heads up Antonio Brown got suspended three games According to Bleach your report Okay, so I won't comment on the Antonio Brown situation, but that's work good for Rob Gronkowski Mike Evans And Chris Godwin for sure Tom Brady is one of my favorite quarterbacks for the main slate Deandre Carter Well, let me see what What we get here Got a whole lot of love from number fire simulations Again, if it's like a start-sit situation for a season long probably do a little bit better I'm not there Even though I like this game Jim's honest and I talked about this game a good bit on the heat check previewing the main slate But I really don't think that it's there I also talked specifically about low salaried receivers and when sort of what context in which they hit their ceilings so I Would say probably no for me with Carter Adam letting is a follow-up Chuba and Terry or Montgomery and Renfrow Chuba and Chuba or Montgomery If you could just so if you could just trade Chuba for Montgomery. I would do that I don't have a whole lot of interest in Chuba Howard and I love David Montgomery if it takes Subbing from Terry to Renfrow. I still think it's worth it. I'm just because Montgomery's role has been so good so sorry if I'm not understanding but I would say Montgomery over Chuba Even if it takes giving up that that drop from Terry McClourin to Hunter Renfrow for The rest of the way Johnny's in yet Khmer is out. So thanks for that But yeah, that's a that's all the questions for tonight I think it's a really fascinating slate because we have taste some hill but it's not gonna take a whole lot of differentiating to Still play taste some hill and be a little bit different you can leave salad on the table because you we would be playing taste some hill at 14,000 anyway, so you could just kind of envision that on the roll still the same the salaries not and that's the easiest way to get different for tonight, so Thank you all for tuning in. Thank you for the questions is always helpful to get some Input here some some things to go over for the Thursday nights late, but of course the season-long angle as well for the weekend So thanks again for tuning in that's gonna be all I have for today's Fandall fantasy Q&A big. Thank you to Joy Affleck for producing the video here Best of luck tonight and best of luck this weekend