 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We are into November and yet on Saturday. We have three undefeated teams taking on ranked opponents We have got Michigan taking on Penn State. We have got Utah versus Washington and Ole Miss at Georgia all on deck for Saturday We're gonna break down all three of those games toxin college football playoff scenarios and much more today with dr. Adfeng this is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as I am every Wednesday by dr. Adfeng you can find his work at the power act calm and check about on Twitter at the power I can add we keep talking every week about this condor stallions thing There are new updates every single day. It seems and now the pushback is coming Michigan as well So it's an evolving story I'm still being fun with it. Honestly, like you asked me about the Travis Kelsey Taylor Swift thing. I was still enjoying that I think it's the same bucket. We're like it's a lot of content, but it's still kind of fun. How are you doing today? I'm doing great I think I'm enjoying it more than most Michigan fans who are kind of worried about it and I'm not I'm really not I enjoy Finding, you know, the new leaks every day and it seems like Michigan is getting into the investigation and leaking game as well Which is I don't know if you're a third party. You got to think that's interesting, right? Like fighting back and playing the game We'll see where it all lands. I don't think anything's happening this season. Yeah, pretty sure No one's getting suspended. No one's they're gonna be not not gonna be able to play football games And I think that's good for college football And and then we'll see where it leads to in the future. Yeah I mean like you need to audit all communications in order to prove there was like collaboration and intent And that's gonna be a big part of it Like you could ding people for oversight not, you know, knowing that this is going on But like that's a different level of offense than it was being coordinated. So I don't think this is a fast thing like you're gonna see the That the daily talk shows talking about like, oh, can they ban Michigan from the college football playoff? Like that's not gonna happen. So that'll be like a talking point But in reality, it's not gonna happen. So why bother wasting your breath on that? But honestly, like that's why it's fun for me is like the stakes for now are kind of low And you know, like it's just kind of a funny story that keeps on giving us more entertaining stuff Like Connor stallions with the vacuums outside his house is the new thing. So honestly, it's just better It's been a thrill so far and I'm not bored of it yet. What was the vacuums thing? I might miss that Was that he moved into a house in our in Arbor and had a bunch of like vacuums piled up outside his house I think he was like selling them on Amazon or something like that and a neighbor complained He accused the neighbor of being a Michigan State fan who was mad at him for being on the Michigan coaching staff I gotta find this guy's house. Yeah Gotta go walk around gotta go walk around town looking for scouting mission. That's your assignment your homework assignment for next week when we have our 13 new updates on the story that we'll have to talk about but luckily and also the on-the-field product pretty fun and for the Peak as mentioned all those good games coming up were to break down those games and more in just one second First a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts later on today Tom Vecchio is going to preview the Panthers at the Bears the thrilling Thursday night football matchup for this week Tom will break down props for that game in the same podcast He'd also over on fan dual TV plus to get fandal TV plus go to fandal.com Slash watch and log into their fandal account Or download family TV plus app on Amazon fire Apple TV or Roku devices tomorrow I'd be back with us to preview NFL week number 10 score early this NFL season with fan dual America's number one sportsbook right now new Customers get $150 and bonus bets with any winning $5 Moneyline bet That's a hundred and fifty bucks if your team wins if you've been thinking about joining a fan dual There is no better time to get in on the action. The app is so easy to use There is a wide range of betting options clean spreads player props totals and more So this is a fandal kickoff the NFL season fandal official partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states Fandal is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC first online real money wager only $5 pregame Moneyline wage required $10 first deposit required bonus issued is now will travel bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt See terms at sportsbook.fandal.com gambling problem. Call 1 800 gambler or visit fandal.com Rg Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia Call 1 800 next step or text next set to 533 for 2 in Arizona 1 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut 1 800 9 with it in Indiana 1 800 5 2 2 4700 or visit ksgambler.com in Kansas 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Louisiana visit md gambling health at Oregon Maryland 1 800 gambler.net in West Virginia 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in Wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call you 100 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1 8 7 7 a hope and y or text open y in New York Now I had last week here on the show you talked about Oregon how they had been on the rise and They're now even money to make the college of football playoff at fandal sportsbook If you take a look at the hypothetical matchups later on fandal makes them Oregon a six and a half point favorite over Washington in the pack 12 championship games should that wind up being the matchup so Even money now to make the playoff and is the value in Oregon now gone with this rise Probably I mean Oregon's team that I've been pretty high on They were really unfortunate to lose that game against Washington a pretty close game And you know when I updated my site on Sunday, it wasn't Ohio State. That was first It wasn't michigan. That was first in my college football number rankings. It was Oregon They really have uh, they really have performed over the last couple of weeks And um when I looked at your question, I was like, oh, that's interesting I would actually make Oregon a nine and a half point favorite over Washington Well, we'll get into Washington a little bit more later in the show um, but You know, Oregon is a team that's done really well. I mean we talked about how Dan landing brought in a bunch of transfers and uh Oregon Washington usc all had issues on defense coming into the season Oregon has definitively fixed them about four weeks ago I proclaimed that I thought I had some faith in usc's defense that turns out to be one of my worst takes over the last decade and uh, you know, and now uh usc is uh Kind of bad and uh, I don't know how many point favorite is Oregon over usc this week. It's it's a lot yeah, so Yeah, you know, Oregon even money that that honestly Sounds pretty enticing right now to make the playoff. I think there's obviously not a shoe in but I I I like this team um bonex could win the heisman that that's absolutely in the realm of possibility And you know, honestly, he would be the frontrunner had they just converted a couple fourth downs against Michael Panix in Washington A couple weeks back. He's been incredible Uh, yeah that total or the spread for usc Oregon 14 and a half total is 73 and a half these pack 12 games rule from a total's perspective So a huge fan of that But Oregon 14 and a half point favorites there as you mentioned the hypothetical Matchup is Oregon by six and a half against Washington. You've got a nine. You said or nine and a half I'd make about nine and a half. I mean, I would definitely see value in Oregon minus six and a half right now Would you grab that now just to kind of get ahead of things or is that not the way you tend to operate with these? Because I know that your your college football numbers do update pretty aggressively as you get new info So it could change by then I guess I mean, it depends on your goals. I'm pretty sure you can't get too much down on Oregon minus six and a half in the pack 12 championship game right now. So You know If you just want a fun bet. Yeah, sure go for it. Bet it now Yeah, so take a look at the the Oregon prices Even money right now at vandal sportsbook ed seemed some potential value there But just in general being high on Oregon does seem to be the way to go right now Let's dig into some of these games that across saturdays action begin With the michigan wolverines taking on penn state and this spread is tightened. It was five and a half It's now down to four and a half at vandal sportsbook total is 45 and a half and penn states offense against ohio state Really underwhelming there and now they face another very very good defense. So Can penn state do enough on that side of the ball to cover this four and a half point spread? Yeah, we'll see. I mean the spread doesn't interest me too much simply because my numbers have michigan by 4.8 points about five pretty close to the markets A couple weeks ago. This is pretty much what I said. I would make this game and and not much has has changed Sense, uh, but I do think there is an angle here and I think it's on the total And one of the reasons that I think there's value on the total is because of strength of schedule um Coming into the season we knew that michigan for the second year in a row was not playing anyone And that has been true. I kind of expected even when I was calling michigan overrated at number two in the preseason poll It didn't really start until this week, right? Like I expected them to be nine and o and they are nine and o and so Um, so yeah, let's let's talk about michigan and their schedule, right? And I think it's important to break this down in terms of offense and defense So let's look at success rate and we'll make my adjustments for opponent But when you talk about like michigan's defense like the raw success rate allowed numbers are phenomenal They've allowed 30.8 success rate That's very good compared to 41.1 college football average Penn state is actually right there. They're a tick better at 30.7 percent in raw success rate Uh, but you kind of got to look at who they played when you look at michigan They haven't faced anyone good the best offense they faced by my numbers was Purdue last week Uh, the 56 in my adjusted success rate. You look at teams like minnesota, michigan state, nebraska They all rank 98th or worse You're taking a raw success rate. That's one of the best in the nation You make my schedule adjustments and michigan's gets dropped all the way to 16th That's a significant drop. That's the effect of of this schedule, right? And when I look at this team, I have a lot of faith in the offense. We'll get to that in a sec But I don't have a lot of faith I mean I have faith in the defense, but I still think the defense needs to prove itself When you look at penn state just for a comparison remember they had about the the the same raw success rate They faced better offenses most notably ohio state, uh, but west virginia is also not bad They opened the season against west virginia A top 25 team when I look at adjusted success rate When you adjust their numbers down, um, they actually end up fourth in my college football Defense rankings by adjusted success rate actually third Um, so that just gives you a sense for how the schedule is impacting what my numbers will say I think the image of michigan's defense is better than their actual performance There's a little bit of a danger that this is a defense that is just beaten up on opposing offenses That are not very good And uh, you know, they may or may not be true. We'll find out this weekend Um, but on offense like the story is actually a little bit different, you know, they Michigan has a really good offense by raw success rate as well 53 And that's fourth best in the nation and they've actually done this against some pretty good defenses as bad as nabrasca's defenses Ah, excuse me as bad as nabrasca's offenses. Their defense is pretty decent. They're 21st Michigan actually had a 54 success rate in that game Uh, Purdue is another team. They're 49th In defense and and michigan also had a pretty good success rate 47 last week In honestly what I thought was jj mccarthy's worst game so I think the michigan offense is good. I think the michigan defense is bad My numbers are showing value on the total. I make this closer to uh, 52 So I think there's value in over 45 and a half Uh, I guess we should talk about pennstay's offense a little bit. Uh, I don't think they're as bad I don't know if jr l are as bad as he showed against ohio state He actually kind of let loose a little bit last week against maryland had 240 pass yards Which was his biggest total against the big 10 defense Do I think he's good? Probably not but has the pennstay offense undercheap a little bit Probably um, I think they can keep it close And I do think there are going to be more points in this game than the market expects So so I like the over here Over at 45 and a half is minus 105 right now at vandal sportsbook and you have it close to 52 So a good amount of value there. I'm curious with you. Uh, when you're looking at those adjusted success rate numbers If I look at like sp plus over the spn It does still have michigan pretty high even after the adjustment. So Is that because they've done a good job of? Suppressing big plays. Uh, you know, they're not letting up a lot or they're getting, you know Is the big play factor to kind of explain how that's going on there What what do you think is the key to explaining why michigan? Has been so good in some metrics when you adjust your schedule. Maybe not as much in success rate Uh, I mean, I don't know. Let me look real quick what I have them in terms of yards for play Um, you know, I mean, they're they're actually worse when I look at yards for play adjusted for kona. They're 22nd. Um I mean, I'll just say like I really trust the way that I do schedule adjustments I wouldn't be talking to you right now if I didn't if I weren't pretty good at that. Um They've beaten up on a lot Of bad offenses and I don't think penn states Offense is nearly that bad. So this is a test. They got to go on the road. I actually see like I don't know. I see a pretty wide range of outcomes. Sure. I can see michigan mauling them I can see penn state like having a great game and and winning big. Uh, I think there's a wide range of outcomes here. So um Yeah, I think it's gonna be a good game And I think that the the one of the big edges in college football is making proper schedule adjustments I know we're into november already. There are nine games in but there are still very Disperate strength of schedules across each team. So That's where you can find an edge. You have been studying this for a very very long time So if you can find an edge in that regard specifically the total or something like that I'm very willing to trust it. So I do think that there is Uh, a lot of incentive for me to add to follow you on that one with the over 45 and a half Which is minus 105 at fan dual sports book Let's move now to our second game, which is utah at washington where right now The spread in this game for utah in washington nine and a half points, uh favoring washington total is 51 and a half that's down two points from where it was yesterday and washington able to top usc in a shootout there, but They did have a mid-season lull And I don't know if it's too early to say that they're past that now, but they did at least play better there I know the receiver room still not fully fully healthy as of yet. So how do you see this game playing out at? Right, I think the final score of last week's washington at usc game was a little bit deceiving Washington was able to pull away at the end But honestly that game was back and forth the entire night and it really came down to one play where kaleb Williams just couldn't get out of the grasp of a defender took a sack usc It had to end up punting instead of tying the game with a field goal There's many different ways that that that could have gone. I mean, I don't see that as a really good Game for washington. Uh, this this program is kind of, uh, you know, they haven't been as good recently, which is fine I mean, it's just You know, they they haven't been particularly good lately Their defense ranks 50th and my justice success rate. That's not particularly good. They haven't been able to solve the defensive side of the ball like like orion has And then, you know, you can kind of make a case that utah is figuring it out Uh, uh, okay, so they're they figured it out all year on the defensive side of the ball They've always been good but You know, you come in the season you expect him rising to play and he doesn't and breson barnes has kind of come in And they've had some decent games, uh recently on offense So again, the college football average is about 41 and they did 45 and a half percent against arizona state They're the 47th best defense by my numbers 47 percent Against usc Uh, they're 54th in my justice success rate A lot worse in my yards per play. Uh, I mean, obviously they got their coordinator fired So if if you laugh at 54 percent 54th in the nation You're welcome to do that But also, you know, like and then 51 percent against cal Which has the 76th best defense So, you know, we're starting to see some decent success rate numbers for this this utah offense is probably a little bit better of uh an offense than uh, what Uh, what was happening at the beginning of the season and you know, my numbers actually like watching in by about five and a half here I do see a lot of value in in utah plus nine and a half Uh, I do think there's some value on the side Okay, so the plus nine and a half on utah is currently minus one ten at vandal sports book and I think that this is this is something that kind of helps explain why You're so far above market on the organ Hypothetical to with with washington where it's kind of your numbers like in organ state or organ justifiably But then also it does seem like You're lower on washington and again you talk about your explanation with that usc game It makes sense to be lower on them if the final score in a high profile game does not match with What the underlying numbers say actually occurred during that game utah is not a sexy team necessarily But like they've been a good team and it's something they're trending up And and I think that's also kind of explainable edward too right where they've had This turnover at quarterback kind of fluidity there It makes sense to take a while for things to click offensively So I feel like to me that makes me more willing to buy into what your numbers are saying Just because you can kind of explain why that may line up narrative Absolutely and at this point in the season I look at my numbers I compare them to the market and if if you can't find an explanation for this I usually tend to stay away. I think the college football markets are very sharp at this point in the season So, uh, I really do need reasoning like this. Um, you know, one team's coming down a little bit That would be washington Another team is probably trending in the right direction on one side of the ball. That would be utah. Uh, I think that kind of Reasoning is is really important before before you make a wager All right, so we are on utah plus nine and a half here against washington in that game Let's finish up here by talking about ol miss at georgia Now they're pretty fun game here as we have georgia as 10 at that point favorites that fandal sports book total in this game Is 58 and a half and ol miss ed has won five straight since they're lost to alabama But a lot of close games and that's banned against some decent competition for sure But some close games So can ol miss keep this one close enough to cover a double digit spread in Athens Yeah, uh We'll see. I mean old miss has been really interesting just with uh, you know coming into season How much lane kiffin was using the transfer portal and you look at the list of names that he brought in on defense And it wasn't exactly power programs that he was getting these guys from But I feel like you know when you're when you're doing the transfer portal thing You're kind of rolling the dice a little bit and you rolled the dice and it's actually been pretty good Uh, they rank 43rd in my adjusted success rate a lot better by yards per play. They are 12 So, you know so far so good on offense. They do what lane kiffin teams do they are pretty efficient 19th in my adjusted success rate So, yeah, you know, it's an interesting season. They're eight and one They got throttled by bama by two touchdowns and then they're four and oh and one score games against other teams in The scc west arguably one of the toughest visions and and and all of college football My number is like them. Uh, you know, I have georgia winning by 8.3 points Same argument as last week. I'm not Uh, I'm not willing to get in the way of georgia. I think they're I mean a lead program that is probably trending in the right direction Uh, I I don't think there's enough You know, obviously boldness is able to move the ball against the georgia defense that looks I mean very suspect compared to what they put out on the field the last few years Uh, sure, can they keep it closed for sure? Uh, I'm not too interested here I'm gonna stay away even though my number is like it I think that that we're at the point in the year too where it's pretty easy to Find reasons that's like a bet and that's always okay to not bet it. You know, you can show value all you want You never have to bet anything So I think that knowing when to not take the value is also a pretty valuable skill to have and you've been doing this for long enough where you kind of know Where you just rather watch the game, uh rather than taking it. So I agree I think it makes a lot of sense here georgia has looked good despite the absence of Brock Bowers Playing some pretty tough teams the other one here for sure I'll do respect to all this but I do understand why you wouldn't really want to Dabble in those waters betting against georgia right now But still two bets ed does like here for this week michigan and penn state over 45 and a half minus 110 And utah plus nine and a half Also minus 110 in that game against washington That's all we got here for today on covering the spread ed. What is going on for you this week over at the powering? So many things. I just had kevin coal on the football analytics show always so knowledgeable about nfl Football analytics and the rest so catch that Anywhere you get podcasts my podcast is the football analytic show and then you know working on my email newsletter Every saturday i send out five no get saturday, which is my curated list of sports betting tips So if you're looking for any action on any given weekend, uh, check that out at the power rank dot com All right powering dot com at the powering dot com for that the football analytics show for the podcast with kevin Cole was always a delight to listen to find ed on twitter at the power rank I am on twitter at jim sonnis You can follow fendal research on twitter at fendal research and obligatory I am on threads at jim dot sonnis as well Pronto on tom it's on vekio coming up later on today to break down bears and panthers for thursday night Football ed is back with me again tomorrow to break down all of week number ten in the nfl You can find that right here on the covering the spread podcast feed the fendal youtube page And fendal tv plus we'll talk to you all once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fendal podcast network