 What's up navigation traders happy Friday January 18th welcome to this week's video update Hope everybody had a great week of trading before we jump into the alerts Just wanted to point out and recognize our weekly winner in our community for who got caught being hot helping other traders and This week's winner Steve danger nice work, buddy. You got caught being hot a lot of good questions shared a lot of good trade ideas experiences and Overall just helped other traders, which is what this is all about. So congrats Steve and Let's move on to the alerts Actually, one other thing before we jump into the alerts. Don't forget Monday in recognition of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day Markets will be closed. So no alerts on Monday of next week. So we will catch you all back here Tuesday for for the first alerts. So Just an FYI there. So let's jump into the alerts for the week Starting with the Monday the 14th. We first trade was a closing trade in Lulu. So we had a short call vertical in Lulu Prices just continued to move higher After we put this on never really had a chance actually we had a chance early to get out for some profit But we were holding for that short Delta got down to a point where we only had four days left to expiration We could have either rolled or closed. We opted to close and just take a loss on That trade as opposed to extending duration. We didn't really necessarily need any more short Delta at the time So I just made sense to close and take a loss on that one Next trade was an opening adjusting trade and EWW. So we just added a short strangle in EWW in the March cycle So at that point we had 60 days to expiration So wanted to start adding some positions in March. And so we did that in EWW So if we take a look at this, here's the alert that we just added in March You can see we got some profit already, but just waiting for some more theta to decay some more time to pass before we do anything there and then we've also got this Adjusted strangle where you can see prices hanging out all the way over here on the break even point if we look at just our puts You can see we're getting close to a point where there's you know, not too much value left They're still they're still okay amount and there's still about 85 dollars worth of value in those puts But if it moves much higher, we will simply roll up our puts So we'll roll up the untested side to about that 30 delta range and Continue to manage as needed if we do that if we do do that roll So right now we would do that next week right now we've got 28 days to expiration and So instead of just rolling those up in February, we would just roll those up and roll the entire spread out to March So look for that if EWW continues higher into next week next trade was a Closing trade in XLU. We had an iron condor booked almost 25% of max profit in just 15 days in that trade So we are out of XLU good trade there Next trade was an opening trade in IYR. So this is the real estate ETF We had closed out of our position in IYR last week. And so we were just looking to get back in With implied volatility at that point it was it was a little bit higher than it is now but You know it's still above that 50 level is in the 60s when we put this on So we jumped back in IYR did an iron condor. You can see prices still right here. So Still well within range just waiting for some more time to pass in that one Next trade is a rolling adjusting trade that we did in oil So we had two sets of short strangles in oil And we rolled this one from March that had 30 days to expiration out to April with 59 days Reason we did that is is we had gotten to a point where we were over 50% of max profit on this piece And so just wanted to roll out and we did a couple of things one is We We we moved our puts down from 63 and a half to 58 and so that got us a little bit less inverted We're still inverted, but it just kind of reduced that inversion and it cut down our our long delta So it cut down our directional exposure in oil. So we weren't as long and And and so that's where we're at with this one. So we've still got the two pieces in oil Let's look at this one first because this is the one we rolled So oil is moved up nicely since that roll. We've we've already gotten we're already up over 900 dollars on this piece Since doing that roll you can see we've got the 53 call and the 58 put our puts are higher than our call So that's what we consider being inverted, but still very centered within our range here So just continuing to let time pass let that theta decay and get back to profits. We're still down We're dead or we're still down a decent amount of money on our oil trade overall, but Definitely coming back nicely The other oil piece that we have on is still in the March cycle with 27 days to expiration and you can see it's pretty centered here And we're over 50% of max profit on this piece of the trade as well I just wanted to spread these out a little bit so we didn't we weren't doing all the rolls in in one day And so we'll probably look into next week to roll this out to April as well And in this case we may Adjust these strikes, you know down to a straddle or keep them the same. It depends on where price is at that point But we will we'll be looking to roll this one Next week as well We're getting close to that 21 days to expiration And so next week will be a good point to go ahead and roll this out kind of lock in that credit and Readjust our strikes potentially and continue to extend duration On our oil position If we look at USO just to get an idea of the implied volatility reading They'll see that implied volatility has just been really contracting nicely over the last couple weeks Giving us that good theta decay as well as prices have you know stabilized as well, which is what exactly what we needed Next trade rolling adjusting trade in xrt So we rolled our short strangle in xrt from february out to march Kind of the same situation. We were over 50 of max profit on that piece of the trade So we just wanted to extend duration And uh and collect a credit on that roll So if we took a look at xrt Here's where we are It's moved up since then and so we're still within range here But just kind of hanging out in the upper end of the range You can see we've still got a decent amount of premium left in those puts So definitely not looking to make an adjustment on that one anytime soon We've got a lot of time and uh and still Um still some premium in that untested side So just going to let things play out here the one thing that we would consider doing potentially If implied volatility, you know stayed high as we may add another piece to this a new centered strangle around the current price If it were to continue much higher, you know out here in the Out out of the breakevens and so forth So we'll see what happens if of course if it bounces back Bounces back will continue to wait and collect that theta and manages necessary Next trade was a closing trade in fxi So this is our butterfly trade that we had on for quite some time And we were just kind of letting price play ping pong We'd we'd we'd buy a put butterfly. We'd buy a call butterflies that moved in and out of the range Uh eventually just uh closed it out and booked a nice profit in fxi Actually a small small winner But uh a winner nonetheless and so we are completely out of fxi If we take a look at the charts And just get an idea of where implied volatility is one of the reasons that we got out was because implied volatility Has gotten really really low ivy percentile of 11 ivy rank of 14 So unless implied volatility spikes back up over that 50 level, we are completely out of fxi Next trade was an opening trade in microsoft So we haven't been doing many earnings related trades recently just because implied volatility has been so high across the board And when that is the case, we like to allocate most of our capital To those premium selling those core income generating strategies that we teach Uh, but in this case we wanted to mix in a pre earnings long straddle in microsoft And so if we take a look at microsoft and and by the way they um They i didn't mention when they announced in the alert. So let's take a look at microsoft and Click on the little boob. So 130 January 30th after the market closes is when they um is when they announce So what we're looking at on a pre earnings straddle is if you can see how implied volatility has contracted here and so When we buy a long straddle when we do a pre earnings long straddle We are looking for a pretty large price move and or A nice expansion in implied volatility So we think that implied volatility is going to expand into earnings Like it typically does and so as we see it contracting we looked at that as a good opportunity To enter the trade now since then it's it's contracted even more But what we have gotten is a pretty decent price move So if we take a look at our analyze tab here, you can see here's where price is So we're already up about 150 some dollars on the trade One implied volatility the the price of the options did expand right after we put them on But now we're getting a decent move higher and so we're up some money I'd like to see I'd like to capture about 250 300 dollars on this trade so If we can get it continuing to move higher we get an expansion implied volatility Uh, then we should hopefully be able to book profit on on this trade. So we'll see what happens there Next trade was a closing adjusting trade in IWM We did that one this morning and so we just closed out the put vertical side of our iron condor Price had breached our upside break even and there was very little value left in that put vertical side So we went ahead and closed that out So you can see price is still just barely out of range here So we could so now we're looking for a little bit of downside to benefit that I also mentioned in the alert. I haven't added another centered Iron condor around the current price yet. Uh, just implied volatility has been steadily contracting So I'm I'm hoping that potentially next week Maybe we get a little bit of a price moved down and we get a little bit of a pop and implied volatility And that's what I'll be looking to to enter. Uh, we could have done it now I mean implied volatility IV percentiles above 50. So there's no issue with that either I just you know with with everything kind of contracting today the premium being sucked out of the options I'd rather wait to see if we can get a little bit of a pop Get a little bit higher credit when we sell that iron condor And so we'll see if we can potentially do that sometime next week Next trade was a rolling adjusting trade in DIA, so we had two sets of short call verticals in DIA And this one we went ahead and rolled it was it was uh, extremely far out of range with a very little chance of getting back So we were in a kind of a negative theta position So I wanted to readjust that get it back to a positive theta position And enroll out to extend duration So in february we had 28 days to expiration out in march We rolled out to where we have 56 and then we adjusted our strikes up because prices moved up on us And so let's take a look at that DIA position at this point So and I mean look how I mean this market has just been ridiculously strong ever since the day after christmas I mean it's just I mean the dows up over 3 000 points the s and p's up over 350 points Since december 26th. That's been a just a massive rally that we're seeing and so That is what has caused it to bust out of our range on these short call verticals And so we rolled it you can see its prices moved up even more since we did that roll But we just adjusted the strikes to that 250 255 level Gave ourselves over a 60 probability of profit On that piece and we'll just continue to manage and we got ourselves back into a positive theta position Here as opposed to that time decay working against us Now we've got this other piece in DIA as well with which is another short call vertical Which has also moved out of a range We've still I always look just the gray boxes as a quick reference This is the one standard deviation move so we still have a decent chance that this could Certainly get back into range. So I'm not looking to roll this one yet Even though it is in a slight negative theta decay position We'll just kind of hold on to this for that short delta And if it moves back into range great if it if it doesn't then we'll look to adjust and roll this one at a later date So that's DIA And lastly our last one was a closing trade in johnson and johnson So this is a short call vertical that we put on for some short delta exposure And they announced earnings on january 22nd, which is tuesday before the market opens So the last time you have to close this is the day before But remember the market is closed for martin luther king day on the 21st So today is really the last day you have to close this trade before earnings We didn't really want to hold it Through earnings. So we went ahead and closed it and booked a booked a small winner So we are out of j and j now at this point All right, those are all the alerts. Let's take a look at some of the other positions that we've got going on starting with 6 b. This is the british pound And you can see we've got some profit here up about 220 dollars ish Not quite enough to take off yet. We've got a max profit of 700 dollars. We want 40 to 50 percent of that So continuing to hold that for now I mentioned oil. We're in good shape there Yes, we've got this long put vertical You can see prices moved out of our range with that strong up move in in the s and p So just looking for some more downside to benefit that That is in the february cycle currently with 28 days to expiration. So we've got a decent amount of time there Natty gas we've got these two pieces here This is the first one. This is the 3.2 call for put and you can see prices right here So we're making back some good profit in natty gas And then the other piece is this one here very similar thing making it making back some good profit in that gas Still down some But working our way back nicely The interesting thing uh earlier this week was we got a And i'll go to ung so we can look at the implied volatility But uh, we got this huge move up, which is what we needed We needed a move up to get back in in our favor But what also happened is implied volatility spiked So even though we got a really nice move in our favor from a directional standpoint Implied volatility spiked so much that we were actually down a little bit on the day Uh when that happened so kind of interesting just shows how much implied volatility plays into the Pricing of these options and uh, and that's why we that's why we utilize it the way we do so uh Nicely in range though with both of our trades here. So we're just playing the wait and see game Both of these trades are in uh in march. So 38 days to expiration So not looking to roll out in time yet But as we get closer and closer to that 21 days to expiration We will be looking to do so ZB bonds we've got an adjusted strangle here in bonds. Let me spread this out so you could see a little bit better See prices has been going down with stocks going up Bonds have been having kind of an inverse correlation. So bonds have been going down So it's hanging out here kind of in the lower end of our range So we could use a little bit of a pop higher in price And for some more theta to decay. So just playing the waiting game in bonds right now Wheat we've got our iron condor in wheat And we're almost at a point where we can book profits on that one Just going to let that hold into next week and if if we get some stable, you know prices stay stable We'll potentially book that one apple our long put Long put vertical that we've been holding for short delta here With the rest of the market prices moved up here. So just looking for some downside To get back into range on our apple trade Costco, this is one we put on for short delta As well You can see prices hanging out right here near the break even just looking for some downside in costco To benefit that trade I was looking for, you know, we had that huge move down after earnings and it kind of popped back up I was hoping for a little bit of a continuation to the downside But with the rest of the market being strong costco has popped its head up as well So just continuing to hold that for that short delta exposure We don't have any earnings coming up anytime soon. So we don't have that to worry about at this point DIA I mentioned that one EEM We've got an iron condor here in EEM and you can see it's kind of hanging out in the upper end of the range So just looking for a little bit of downside in EEM to benefit that trade And then EWW I mentioned that one We've got these two pieces on here One is hanging out in the upper end of the range and then the other one is the new piece that we just put on Where we've got that pretty centered strangle there EWZ we've got this adjusted strangle here Where it's hanging out in kind of the upper end of the range We did not add another strangle with implied volatility as low as it is So we'll continue to adjust and roll and manage this one But we will not be adding to it unless implied volatility were to spike higher So just kind of managing this one as is at this point I mentioned IWM I do IWR IYR I mentioned Microsoft Q's okay, so the Q's are in very similar situation from DIA. You can see prices Just you know crushed through that that Break even point way out of our range. You can see the one standard deviation gray box It's going to have a very little chance to get back But with the roll in DIA and the adjustments we did today. I didn't want to do this one the same day So Hopefully we'll get a little bit of a pop higher in the next week and we'll do the same thing We will roll this out from February to March Extend that duration keep that short delta exposure in our portfolio And then our other short call vertical kind of a similar situation It's out of our range, but not so far that it can't get back And and so we'll continue to hold this one for now And and by the way as far as our short delta exposure, we're about two to one on our ratio so We like to use a ratio of theta versus short delta So we like our short delta to be to be anywhere from one to one up to as high as five to one Versus our theta and so we're about two to one right now, which which I like I like that position I you know, I like having the short delta exposure on with the massive run up that we've seen in stocks You know at some point we'll see a little bit of a pullback here So that will help that short delta exposure And not looking to add anymore at this point And and that's the the good we played this really well Even though this short delta is really hurting with this with this huge, you know massive rally that we're seeing in stocks We didn't get too aggressive in adding short delta. You know, I know a lot of people when we were down here We had a lot of members emails in the community talking about I need to add short delta I need to add short delta But keep in mind when you get a rally It's going and you have range bound positions on like strangles and iron condors You're automatically going to acquire some short delta And so we got some some natural short delta exposure because the market moved up On us and then we did add a little bit But we didn't get super aggressive about adding short delta down here and this is why okay You just got to and that's why we use a range you you can't over manage that You can't over adjust your positions and over manage your deltas You've just you've got to play that range and just let it bounce around because sometimes it'll naturally adjust itself For example, if we get a couple that you know if we get several down days next week You know if we get down back down to you know this range here That's going to suck a lot of our short delta away meaning You know, it's going to it's going to the market moves down. We have that short delta exposure That's automatically going to get taken away. So we don't want to be too Over we don't want to over adjust our delta positions. We just want to let those play out in a range SMH we've got an adjusted strangle on in smh. You can see it's hanging out in the upper end of the range here Implied volatility still over that 50 level. So we could potentially look to add to this Next week assuming implied volatility stays high That would be an area that we would potentially look to do because this one is in February So we could add one out in March a centered strangle around that current price To add some credits there. And so we may look to do that if implied volatility stays high next week If we look at our puts Still got a decent amount still got a little bit of of premium left in our puts So if it moves much higher, we will roll our puts up, but we are just holding for now SPY We've got two pieces here. We've got one short call vertical, which is from an iron condor price blew through our break even here So we closed out the untested side Still holding our short call vertical at this point and we'll look to do something with that Uh, as we see price move around, of course, if it comes back Still has a chance to come back in a range getting closer to the point where it doesn't so we may Close that out or roll it. We'll see where we're at with everything next week And then we've got our other piece, which is a full iron condor Which is now kind of hanging out the upper end or range upper end of the range of that one So same thing if price continues a lot higher We'll close out the untested side here and then manage those short call verticals as needed XL K we had this one on for short delta as well It's it's moved quite a bit out of range. So we will look to You know work with this one into next week. This is in february. So we may look to roll that out to march Uh, or close it out depends depends on where we're at, but we'll we'll make an adjustment or address that one next week XL V also have this on for that short delta exposure. I know, uh, this one was uh, Pretty profitable kind of in that between 35 and 50 of max profit at one point And we were continuing to hold it for that short delta exposure just based on everything else we were doing I know some of you took off that and booked a profit. So good for you. That was a obviously in hindsight. That was a great call We're still holding though. Uh, we're still well, you know, we're still in range here But just looking for some downside to benefit that XL V position And then I already mentioned XRT Our, uh, adjusted strangle out in march. So Those are all of our positions and those are all of our alerts. I really like the exposure that we've got here I mean, we've got I mentioned this in our my kind of written, uh, recap of our portfolio yesterday We've got a lot of good exposure in different positions. Uh, we were pretty light on the number of alerts this week Just be and actually the week before too because we're just letting our positions work for us and that's not a bad thing We've got a lot of positions on we've got a lot of good theta decay And um, and I like our directional exposure at this point as well. So In good shape and we look forward to another great week of trading next week Everybody have a good weekend and we will see you on Tuesday. Don't forget Monday's a holiday. See you on Tuesday. Take care