 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Full slated baseball on tap for today So we're gonna break things down and get you ready for tonight across the diamond talking about some money lines and Strikeout props for tonight that I like over at Fandall sportsbook based on my model Not a ton of baseball left to do to be to be discussed for this year So trying to finish off the year on a high note get back on track for myself personally and hopefully find some winning bets for tonight This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a digital media managing editor for Fandall research here to take a look at tonight's MLB slate over at Fandall sportsbook and Breakdown where my models are showing value in the money line and strikeout prop markets And we'll also go back through the recommendations from last week here on the show for some soccer and some NASCAR recap What went well and what did not and what went well was all the soccer recommendations from Ed and awesome We'll talk about all that later on the first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your Podcast Austin is back with us again tomorrow. We'll talk about EPL match week number two We also had Ed on to preview the semi-finals in the women's World Cup We talked about the Sweden Spain game that went under that went down this morning He had some thoughts in Spain the final it didn't advance So you can find those thoughts from Ed in the cover in the spread podcast feed right now along with the faddle YouTube page and Over on Fandall TV plus as well It's also Dinger Tuesday over at Fandall sportsbook hit a home run with five dollar Dinger Tuesdays on Fandall sportsbook each Tuesday all customers will get five dollars and bonus bets for every home run hit By both teams when you place a twenty five dollar to hit a home run Wager on MLB games and the best part about Dinger Tuesdays is even if your bet loses Fandall will pay you five dollars for every home run There's no better place to bet America's pastime than on America's number one sportsbook head over to your Fandall account and Download the Fandall sportsbook app to pick your home right hitter must be 21 plus and president select states bonus Issued is none of the trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt Max bonus twenty five dollars We're strict and apply see full terms at Fandall comm slash sportsbook Fandall was offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit Fandall comm slash RG in Arizona 1 800 next step or text next step to 533 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 and 8 7 8 9 7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1 809 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in Kansas KS gambling health comm Louisiana is 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Massachusetts gambling helpline ma.org or call 100 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in Maryland MD gambling health org in New York 1 8 7 7 8 hope and wire text open why and it was for Virginia go to 1 800 gambler net Let's take in now to the MLB Recommendations for today over at Fandall sportsbook. I have two money lines and three strikeout props that I like as of right now Let's begin things off with the money lines. Let's talk about the Toronto Blue Jays They're currently even money at Fandall sportsbook plus 100 whereas they've shifted to minus one or five or so at most other books So getting them that even money pretty enticing They're also a value at that number by my model with win odds at 52.5 percent versus the implied odds here Which are at 50 percent? This is all because of the fact that I kind of believe in what you say Kikuchi's been doing here recently Kikuchi's been a guy who across the entire career has had decent peripherals but never came through with good results that was because he let up a lot of really hard contact and That's a skill. It is a skill to suppress our contact It was not a skill that Kikuchi used to possess But over his past 13 starts now, which is a pretty large sample Kikuchi is actually doing a good job there. His hard hit rate allowed is 36 percent with a 36 percent fly ball rate So that's a radical deviation where he was at before he's doing that while still getting strikeouts The strikeout rate is 27 percent So not surprisingly the peripherals for Kikuchi are very good He has a 3.77 skill interactive ERA, but that's not the concern the concern of Kikuchi is always translating good peripherals into good results But he actually is doing that now again It's a 13 start sample, which is not a small number, but his ERA is 2.79 So although the 2.79 is fluky that's not going to stay that low It's still really good and it's encouraging to see the results actually Match and in this case exceed the peripherals for the first time in his entire career Even if we assume that Kikuchi regresses toward the underlying numbers I think it's clear that he is a better pitcher than he was earlier on this year as He's begun to successfully suppress hard contact for the first time It is a tough match up here facing off with zack wheeler is zack wheeler a very good pitcher who's pitching well right now But with this game being in toronto, I think the jays should be favored again I haven't 52.5 percent their applied odds are 50 percent So I think the jays are a quality bet right now over at fan duel because we use a kikuchi's been doing across the past couple of months That's the first money line second money line is a lot more uncomfy and that's going to be the new york yankees taking on the atlanta braves and It is as worrisome as it may sound to bet the yankees right now and bet against the braves and it's it's really rough It stinks to bet against the braves who they are an absolute wrecking ball right now And they're also facing these seven rino who the yankees seem like they want to take out of the rotation But really can't because of injuries from nesta cortez and some other stuff So clearly this is not a oh, we got confidence and again. We're going to stick him back in the rotation It's a we got to do it because we have no one else to go to I would say though that there are some kind of similar issues with brice elder on the brave side of things He is not in pristine form right now over the past 13 starts for elder He's been using more sinkers and more sinkers is typically not a great thing because you want to limit balls and play and sinkers let up contact In those 13 starts the skill interactive era for elder is 5.15. He has a 15 strikeout rate And his results are almost just as bad 4.95 era in that time as well The issues have been more apparent for elder recently if we look even like at a smaller sample He's led a 5 plus earned runs in four of his past six starts three of those did come on the road and he's at home here tonight, but It's still concerning to see the results swing so heavily against him and for the season elder Does not have massive home road splits. So I don't think it's a concern I don't think we should toss it out just because the rough starts for him have come on the road My model has the Yankees when I was closer to 40 percent than the implied odds of 35.2 percent So I understand why the market is here because the braves are a juggernaut right now and the Yankees are not But I think it's going a bit too far given the fact that elder Is not You know some shut down guy we need to avoid by any means the Yankees offense is better now than it was before Even if it's still not perfect. So I do think the Yankees are the right side in this game So the Yankees money line plus 184 and the blue jays money line even money are the two places in training for money lines for tonight The first strikeout prop is also going to stick on the similar topic and talking about brice elder once again elder strikeout prop is currently at four and a half strikeouts at fan dual sportsbook The under is minus 112 and I've got a projected almost a full strikeout below that. Uh, it's actually It was minus 116 before it's now minus 112. So it seems like there's been some interest in the over on elder, which is surprising to me is what I would say I mentioned before that he's been leaning more on his sinker recently and Sinkers are not strikeout pitches If we go back to the 13th start sample on elder where he's been using more sinkers He has hit the over on four and a half just four out of 13 times If we look at his six home starts he has done so in one out of six starts So again, not huge home road splits for elder Um, even though most of his really bad outings have come on the road The aches active roster about a league average strikeout right against righty So not a boost there and as a result, I've got all the projected pretty well below this at 3.69 strikeouts Again minus 112 it does imply that there has been some interest in the over on elder because it was the over was minus 110 It's now minus 112. I do still think this is the right side of this one elder under four and a half minus 112 because This does play pretty well with the money line You could consider going with the same game parlay here Putting the Yankees money line a plus 184 paired with the elder strikeout under if you were to do so That's plus 332 on the money line if annual sports book I think that's pretty fair honestly and I don't mind it So if you were someone who enjoys the same game parlites I think it's a pretty good opportunity because you always want to make sure that your bets play well together That they can both happen simultaneously without drastically decreasing the odds that the other one occurs These actually correlate pretty well so I as always tend to play things Separate so that'll be my path personally But if you did want to go towards the same game parlay if you had some sort of boost on parlays for tonight I think that could be around me personally again Single legs because that's my personal process my personal preference But they do play better in this instance than they typically would so You can't consider tying the elder strikeout under together with the Yankees money line if you were to want to Two other strikeout props I like for tonight. The first one is one that bit me last week I took the under and two key to son's strikeout prop and he went out and he threw he had nine strikeouts so Not ideal under for Tucson tonight at five and a half is minus 118 And I do think that is our way to play things here And it is concerning because Tucson has had actually now consecutive starts with nine strikeouts So I understand why the market's pretty high on him But at the same time in those two games to son's didn't get a ton of whiffs His swinging strike rates were 9.2 percent and 10.4 percent respectively And he still walked a lot of guys and walks drive up pitch counts in a hurry now For Tucson that's not as big of a concern now as it was before because the white sox letting him go deep in games and That does matter for my strikeout projections a lot So I bumped up his his pitch count projection About seven pitches from where it was before which is a pretty big deviation But even with the strikeout or the pitch count increased I still have Tucson projected for 5.29 strikeouts and that's the average number And he can have outings where it's like nine. See if it's 5.29 strikeouts That does imply his median is below Is low enough where we can consider laying minus 118 on the under here I just want to bet on regression after two huge games for Tucson where he's had nine strikeouts in consecutive games The cubs active roster will strike out for sure. So I think that's another reason why this number is a bit high But they're not a high strikeout team actually a bit below average in that regard 22 percent against righties in the current active roster Tucson is on the road. It's also in Chicago tonight. So Not a huge trek across town for him But I do think the under at minus 118 is the way to go to this one So to son under five and a half minus 118 in the cubs and white sox game Final one is actually an over so we did find one over to go with uh for tonight in the strikeout department That is in the Dodgers versus Brewers game Adrienne houser over three and a half strikeouts is currently minus 110 if annual sports book and I think this under accounts for a change houser has undergone recently he had to start in a situation where he made one start relief and It seemed like the Brewers were not super enthused with him But ever since he came back in the rotation houser has been throwing more sliders and sliders Unlike sinkers are great pitches for strikeout props because they do lead to a lot of whiffs and we've seen that for houser because he's made seven starts back in the rotation and He's had he's gone under three and half strikeouts just one time in that span That includes a strike in outing where he had 10 strikeouts against the freaking Braves Now that game was at home if we look at the three road starts for houser He's had five five and three strikeouts the one under in that span came against the Braves That was the second time he was facing them in a uh in consecutive starts So it kind of makes sense that a team that good would get to him when he was on the road the big concern here would be if the Dodgers were to pummel him because houser does let up a lot of hard contact and You know a strikeout prop projection kind of Has to bake into the possibility that houser just gets wrecked because he could lead that game early not get to the Over as a result of that so that could be definitely in play that could get him in trouble but The best way to prevent hard contact is to allow no contact at all So with this number being so low at three and a half strikeouts I have no problem taking the over I think it's a very good bet for tonight Houser over three and a half strikeouts minus 110 where I'd want to go there So three strikeout props for today to saunt under five and a half minus 118 houser over three and a half which is Minus 110 and then also elder under four and a half minus 112 over at fandall sportsbook Now I did forget when I was prepping this morning that is dinger Tuesday so let's kind of search through here quickly to Try to find if we can get some uh some solid dinger bets for tonight I have one guy in mind although it looks like this game might not be posted as of yet Okay, so the game I was going to look at was the cardinals in the a's I want to see what lars newt bars home run odds are Once those are up because he's facing freddy tarnock and tarnock pretty big fly ball guy in the miners Most likely freddy tarnock as the a's are not announced. Uh, their official starter for today, but Let's put a lot of fly balls and ever since the all-star break newt bar has been A pretty big fly ball guy a lot more barrels a lot more Balls in the air. So I find that pretty enticing personally So what I would do is once fandall posts the a's and the cardinals game, which won't occur until the a's announced their starter I would check out where lars newt bar checks and he's been batting leadoff recently. So I should get some pretty good volume out of him. That's always fun And always a positive for us as as well. So I would check out that other one that I think is somewhat intriguing Is I want to see how michael harris's uh home run odds are For tonight and this one does not mesh well with the yankees money line because we're betting against them And taking a look at michael harris, but last night we saw harris move up in the order because azi albie's is out It sounds like albie is going to shift to the Injured list here pretty soon, which means we can probably expect harris to bat high in the order once again harris's home run odds are plus five sixty at vandal sportsbook and I actually think that's good enough to take him So if you're looking for a binger tuesday bet, I would go with michael harris. He was my binger Uh, my binger bet or binger recommendation on the solo shot last night So let's run it back here once again harris Last year was phenomenal. Uh putting the ball Just making hard contact with the ball constantly and it led to a 19 home run See which is not a huge number, but a 217 iso now this year The home run numbers haven't been as big as iso is about 40 points lower But I think part of that might get that luck because his hard hit rate is actually up 1 percentage point to 46 percent and his fly ball rate is also up And if you look at harris recently it does seem as though the hard contact has been inching inching inching up I find that pretty enticing for a guy who has proven in the past that he can Be a guy who puts up pretty decent home run numbers If you look at harris since the all-star break his iso in that time is 162 So about the same as it was before but now if he's going to bat second each night That's going to be a pretty big boost him with regards to volume Got a lot of got a lot of good protection around him in the order So I do find that pretty enticing personally And I think that if you're looking for a Dinger bet for dinger tuesday I think the harris plus 560 is probably the way you want to go there So check on lars newt bar once that game is up But then uh michael harris also a fun one to turn to if you're looking for smellets and dinger tuesday And again that game could feature a lot of home runs total that game is 10 runs right now I would not be shocked. We see bull sides adding to that total. So dinger tuesday recommendation will go With michael harris plus 560 and then check out lars newt bar later on as well Let's wrap up the baseball side of things for today But as mentioned we do want to go back through last week and recap recommendations from the weekly sports here on the show Let's start with women's world cup We had dr. Ed fang on to preview the round of eight and you can find ed on twitter at the power rank Find his work at the power rank dot com and ed in that round went two for two On his money line recommendations are on his I should say two is two advanced recommendations He had spain at minus 180 180 against netherlands. They won that one two to one thanks to a goal in extra time And then he had sweden Uh topping japan at plus 140 and sweden did defeat japan two to one. So couple wins there for ed Spain did defeat sweden last night. Uh, so sweden futures are now dead for ed But he said i'm let yesterday's show he was hedging out of those or hedging those by betting spain to win over sweden straight up and also again Ed did discuss his thoughts on spain taking on england likely in the final We'll see how things go into night's match But uh, he had some thoughts on what to do With england if that game were to occur In the final so if you want to hear ed's thoughts on spain potentially versus england Check that out in your covering the spread podcast feed the fandal youtube page and fandall tv plus Sticky with soccer we had austin cast on last week to preview match week one in the epl You could find austin on twitter at austin cast and austin like ed also won both of those recommendations He had brighton's first half money line over lutein town at minus 145 Brighton scored in the 36 minutes and they won the first half one nil. So win there minus 145 other one was new castle Minus 140 over astin villa new castle won that one five to one So an impressive victory there impressive week by austin and honestly If you listened austin last year You're probably not surprised because he had a really good year last year continuation of what he did All of last year here on the show and excited to have him back on the show tomorrow to talk more epl NASCAR last week was in indianapolis. I had three recommendations for cup and one for Xfinity Hopefully he read the betting guide over a fandal research because I did did the outright there After practice at 18 to 1 on michael mcdowell. So I think the betting guide is a pretty key Compliment to this podcast. It does go up every week over at fandal research talking through Um, it'll have the same recommendations to the show as long as the odds They're still the same and then I'll add stuff in after practice and qualifying usually sunday morning Once marcus have moved there So would recommend checking that out as well over at fandals fandals dot com slash research on the show I had three top 10 bets. Those were tie gives plus 195 alex bowman plus 250 And ryan priested h1 the bowman one hit pretty easily no real sweat there He was fast on saturday his odds closed I think around even money for a top 10 and he ran up front all day. Let me finish fifth So no sweat there honestly pretty good day the plus 250 cashed Gids is also fast saturday and I think he closed around minus 120 or so for a top 10 But he got spun out super early in that race and it pushed him all the way back 27th And there were no cautions after that But gives him so fast he managed to work his way back towards the front and Finished about two seconds behind the top 10. He finished 12 Just I thought he drove really well. So The process was there. I think even though it did not cash. That's her priest He was off all weekend. So did not come close to the eight to one one But I like the results on bowman. I like the process on gids like the process on bowman too And uh whipped on priests, but overall felt pretty good about my read on the cup series side of things In extending my only recommendation was john hunter neiman check 1800 to win. He Ran around eight the entire race and never really was in contention Uh, so that would miss but again betting guides on vandu research allow me to expand on my thoughts at practice So I'd recommend giving this a read on the cup side of things when applicable That is going to wrap things up for today here on covering the spread I want to give a big thank you to all of you as always for tuning in as much We are back once again tomorrow austin cast is going to preview epl match week number two for us We'll break down his takeaways from match week one Take a look forward to match week two and talk about the traditional markets there And then uh, we have all some nfl on friday pitching ninja back with us on or nfl thursday Pitching ninja back with us on friday all right here on the covering the spread podcast Meet and the fandal youtube page and on fandal tv plus if you've gotten any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fandal podcast network at fandal podcast We want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across baseball for tonight Enjoy women's world cup semi-final as well. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow This has been covering the spread right here on the fandal podcast network