 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What's going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire comm as we are getting you set for the college Football national championship game. It is LSU versus Clemson We are breaking down all the betting angles for that game with Teddy Savronsky Teddy covers We're gonna break it down with him in just a bit. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here as always by Ed Fang You can find his work over at the power bank comm and on Twitter at the power rank Ed happy National championship week to you. How you doing? I'm doing great. I kind of feel like maybe the game should have happened last Monday but obviously it didn't we get over a two week wait between the semifinals and The Monday night game, but I mean, I think that's just in the college football rules, right? It's the second Monday after New Year's. Yeah, and like it's kind of weird to have the two weeks between it because I kind of Forget that it's happening like the week after I say the half week after the semifinals I'm like, oh my gosh with this game were today and then there's like a week after that where you're like Okay, I kind of forgot that this thing happened and now I'm like, okay now I'm getting jacked up again because it's Wednesday. We're leading into Monday Finally, I'm getting excited, but I still have to wait until Monday, which is kind of you know, it's whatever But I think the allure of this game and I I am more of an NFL person than a college person But I think watching this game specifically where it's Joe Burrow versus Trevor Lawrence gets me as Excited as I've been for a national championship and I would say quite some time just because both these dudes are gonna be Relevant in our sports watching universe for a very long time. So I'm I'm jacked to see how this game plays out Yeah, absolutely. And I mean part of the thing I want to talk about later is, you know Who's got the advantage of that quarterback position? It's Different from from the popular one. I don't think it's a definitive answer at the very least I think that you could go a couple of ways with that and we're gonna get Teddy Savransky's thoughts on these guys, too You can find him on Twitter at Teddy underscore covers He is a professional sports better can find his work over at sports memo calm We're previewing the national championship talking Ellis you Clemson. We're gonna get his read on a couple of prop bets We're gonna talk the spread. We're gonna talk the total everything about this game Teddy will be breaking down with us now This is a two podcast week once again because I also have one coming up tomorrow with Chris Andrews We're gonna break down his thoughts on the divisional round of the NFL playoffs getting his thoughts on all four games And where he sees some value and talking about a book that he released back in June I believe and just talking in general about Chris Andrews path I had I know you had Chris on your podcast recently. I'm pretty excited to talk to him should be a fun conversation, too Yeah, absolutely. I mean bookmakers have a unique perspective As John Sheeran did a lot on our last show. It's always good to talk to them and you know Cross your fingers and hope you're on the same side that they are and I was reading about at least good It just sounds like a really fun backstories I'm excited to talk to Chris tomorrow to get that podcast right as it is posted Make sure you subscribe to covering the spread on Apple podcast Spotify stitcher or wherever you get your podcast You can find us there if you listen Apple podcast We would appreciate a rating and review as well because those do help us out a ton and It's been fun along this first season of covering the spread thus far now before bringing Teddy talk about the national championship We got to go back through the bowl season and the semi-finals and break down our bets for college football During that time. Let's do that first and then talk to Teddy about Monday's game Covering the past All right, let's take a look back at the bets we had here for college football bowl season starting off with a couple ed Starting off with Miami against Louisiana Tech it was Miami by six and a half at the time and It was one of those games where one team clearly did not come to play and it's hard for numbers to quantify that Just kind of a weird game overall Yeah, I mean, I think there there there was a talent disparity on that field. Unfortunately that did not made itself President I think I kind of talked about that game early in my process. Yeah did not end up actually going With Miami ATS and that so I feel a little fortunate there even though I did even though the numbers did like it Yeah, but yeah, not you know Not one of not one of the best calls for the numbers there it's just hard to know when a team is going to totally no show and Maybe you could have predicted it because it's Miami in a non-important bowl game but this Miami team kind of felt different I guess in the sense that They aren't like some top-tier program in some scrub bowls. So I guess for me I was pretty okay with it It's just you know, I'm gonna work out. Yeah, it didn't work out. I mean that that's the bottom line I mean the numbers did like them as the second best ACC team when you looked at data from this year, obviously Way way below Clemson, but you know better than all the other teams there Lost a bunch of tough games this year that they could have won and you would think with a first-year coach That they would be pretty fired up to to get into bull season and and make a statement even if it is against the conference USA team No, that happened. No But we'll talk more about Miami next year. So the other one was Washington State plus three against Air Force. You had this bet for a very long time I was they were covering for most of the game You did get actually a half point of line movement in your favor to a close of two and a half Air Force played really well. They were up by three Deep into the fourth quarter, but it's worth a touchdown at 350 left Washington State couldn't quite score to get it back down to three But that was one of those where the bet could have gone either way. It just didn't go in your favor at the end Yeah, and and I knew that That Air Force would be able to score on Washington State You just kind of hope that they do it slowly enough where you get a critical fumble, right? Also Washington State a really good first drive went for it on fourth and goal from the one didn't work out so You know, I don't I don't think it was a bad call But I did it didn't work out. Yeah, it was fun game to watch, too I love what you talked about in your bet, too Is the contrasting styles and that was it led to a really fun game there too moving to the semi-finals I got buried on LSU Oklahoma I wanted the under at 76 points and LSU scored 63 by themselves. They were at 49 and a halftime Whoops that one was not good That just like immediately when that game started it was like, oh, I've made a grave error Yeah, well, you know Oklahoma's defense was top 25 when just success rate going into that game Not something I really talked about because I was so kind of obsessed on the other side of the ball and right Whether their scheme had changed and made them less explosive with with Jalen Hertzman in the ball turned out that didn't even matter So and yeah, didn't go your way And one of the reasons I wanted the under was because I thought LSU would pull away and they wouldn't need to score much in the second half They didn't need to score much in the second half, but they scored so much in the first half. It didn't matter. So oh well in the other game we had Ohio State plus two you know, I say plus two against Clemson There were a couple situations where that could have worked. Obviously again that one did not work Clemson one by five But had that fumble recovery touchdown not been overturned or had Chris a lava a not broken off his route There were two separate ways you could have covered that bet Nine of them happened though. So like yeah, it's just that was a tough one Yeah, no for sure to it. I mean it was kind of the first time LSU LSU Ohio State it kind of shot themselves in the foot Yeah, you know, they had a screen pass in the first half that looked perfect and Dobbins just dropped the ball Kicked a bunch of field goals in that game. So You know, I think the markets are a little bit high on Clemson in that one And yeah, I think I think it was still the right side You watch the replay of the alave play where fields to the pick it's like He would have been open to and that just like that's done It's I love Justin Fields. So like anything that taints his stats or makes them look worse makes me sad personally But that one didn't hurt me because I had the under on that game at 63 points That would did that one did pay off But like I'm still a Justin Fields fan and I really wanted that to pay off Didn't quite work out but regardless Clemson wins they advance and now they are facing LSU So kind of a tough string for us with the bowls and the semi-finals But hey, we got one more game that we can bounce back in a big way with LSU versus Clemson's Let's do it there. Sounds good. All right We'll bring in Teddy covers to break down his thoughts on that game here in just one second again Follow him on Twitter at Teddy underscore covers and find his work over at sports memo.com But if you want to get in on the action check out Fandall sportsbook and place your first bet today If you lose Fandall will give you a refund of up to five hundred dollars in site credit visit sportsbook.fandall.com More details terms and conditions apply must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania West Virginia or Indiana gambling problem call 1-800 Gambler, let's bring Teddy Savansky right now then to break down LSU versus Clemson get his thought on all the different numbers You can get for that national championship and see where he is leaning for LSU versus Clemson Covering the present Let's bring Teddy Savansky back into covering the spread Teddy covers over from sports memo Teddy Really appreciate you swinging by for today. How are you doing? I'm doing just fine. Thanks. Are you kidding? I mean, this is a fun time of year. It really is, you know Yeah, most of bullseas is behind us, but we still got one pretty big game in college football to enjoy We got NFL playoffs. We have NBA. We have college hoops on center stage right now. So it's a time of year I like So for whatever for whatever that's worth and the holidays are finally behind. I felt like it was analyst this year I don't miss that being over, but it's a busy time of year for you because you're doing NBA stuff You're doing some college hoop stuff. You got NFL playoffs. How do you balance? Trying to juggle all those sports at once. I have no work-life balance whatsoever. I mean, I'll be honest I don't you know once in a while Every once in a while I go do something with the boy or I'll uh, you know, I can't remember last time I took my wife out on a date I'm sure I'm do I'm sure she remembers right But you know, I take time to breathe in the summer Okay, and during from the beginning of the start of college and really from the beginning of August Till the end of March madness you work and that's just how it is And I'm kind of used to that now I've been doing it long enough that I'm that I'm used to the rhythm, but There's no question. It's not in terms of a lot of work-life balance. It's you know as a as a better Sometimes you miss that But I wouldn't know what to do with myself. Yeah, absolutely. Well, Teddy, we always appreciate your insights We had a little time to reflect on the college football regular season and actually most of bowl season Can give us a sense for what went well for you and what you're thinking about differently maybe for this last game and for next season Well, in terms of the overall campaign, I would describe my college football season as mediocre at best, you know I didn't crush anything. I didn't get crushed. I Haven't gone through yet game by game what I'll do In the Austin we talked about what happens come summertime in summertime. I literally go through game by game in every sport that I've done and Try to find patterns. I'll do a little bit of debase research See if there's areas where I struggled or where I was particularly successful If I'm looking if I looking back at this season, I almost feel like there were I Didn't fully take advantage of some of the stuff some of the opportunities that were in front of me I saw Minnesota early. I didn't make nearly enough money off the Gophers You know, and there were a handful of teams like that. I saw Cincinnati I don't feel I made enough money off the Bearcats and I saw them in September as being a bet-on team You know after that Ohio State loss. They were bet on for you know, two months So I feel like there were a good handful of teams that I saw and should have made more money with But in terms of a broad Thorough review that doesn't come till over the summer And so you're going through each individual game and trying to figure out Opportunities missed and what may have gone wrong with with Betsy you may have missed you're going game-by-game for all those After I go through every bet that I made Wow, and again, I'm not spending three hours with every shirt that I hate But I'm gonna I absolutely look for patterns. Yeah and look for areas of success and well, you know leaks. I mean when we talk about One of the biggest differences between guys that do this full-time and guys that do this Recreationally is guys that do this full-time you have to see your leaks find your leaks and plug your leaks because we all have them and Recreational betters don't necessarily always do that right And I think the self-awareness question is important too when we're talking about this national championship game between LSU and Clemson You know you have to know where your strength is when there are You know a more robust variety of markets to enter for a big game than there are for your general college football week So when you're looking at a game like a national championship game that is pretty heavily bet on Are there markets you tend to find even more attractive where you do better? Or are they all efficient enough where it's not something where you tend to dive too heavily into games like this? so In my mind the national championship game in the Super Bowl are very different Okay, the Super Bowl I go pretty heavy on the props I do because there's a lot of stuff that I've done for a number of years that tends to work and you have a lot of positive expectations situations and then as you come in and then on kickoff Sunday there are all kinds of positive expectations situations because there's been an Extraordinary amount of public money betting the props for the Super Bowl The props for the national championship game. I mean compared to what we have the Super Bowl There's nothing out there right now. We have quarterback props talk about we have adjusted team totals, you know And we'll see a handful more, but we're not going to see the bevy You know the 400 props for this and we're not going to see the chances for miss my markets and we're not going to see the Extraordinary flow of money that comes in for this is like good like Super Bowl props do so I view this game Like I would view any game in college football. It's no it doesn't my wager size I mean, you know, I didn't make one bet on this game and I may have made it too early, but I bet it You know if you will talk about in just a minute But that's all I bet. I bet one unit on this game. Okay, and when it comes to props, I mean we could talk about them I looked at them But I haven't got anything yet and if I do get involved with the prop again my max Max possible exposure in this game is gonna be like two two and a half units. Okay? Yeah, it's not a situation where like Super Bowl where you can easily have five units plus when you count all the prop wagers that you've made so I I guess what I'm saying is that I'm not I'm not going nuts on this game And I would encourage any of you out there not to go nuts. It's one frickin game. And you know what? There aren't a whole lot of mistakes. You're gonna find at this time of the year. We're like, oh, that's a really bad line Oh, that's a terrible total. Oh, how could they have that prop here? Sometimes you see that stuff in September and October and November you don't see in the national championship game So, you know, it's a some action some fun. I think a positive expectation wager on the side And other than that, it's just another game You know, yeah, that's what it is Well, I definitely want to hear what you got to say about the side, but maybe let's start with the total 69 and a half Lsu was obviously fantastic in the semifinal against Oklahoma gets a little bit more difficult against Clemson But you know, is the market overacting a little bit to LSU semi-final performance with 69 and a half points here so We have to talk about what Oklahoma did on the defensive side of the football. Okay, which is not do anything And again first year first time defensive coordinator who literally did not I did not notice an adjustment during the game They started with a bad defensive game plan and they played that same defensive game plan for 60 minutes and you know the the results Was a high-spin winning quarterback and an elite receiving core were what you might expect Given the fact that the defense without class that made no adjustments whatsoever throughout the course of the game And the coordinator had no idea what it was doing. Okay Clemson ain't Oklahoma All right, that's that if you're gonna talk about this game in one sentence. That's my sentence three words Clemson ain't Oklahoma Look headline here was one. Okay Clemson minus or well LSU minus one and then Clemson looks really good LSU looks really good and Clemson. I think I look I had a bet on Ohio State in that game Receiver turns the wrong way or else. Maybe I win that bet But my thought process going into that game was whoever wins this game on betting against LSU and am I and nothing that I saw Changed my opinion about that Alright, I understand that the Tigers Have been truly elite this season the LSU Tigers on the other hand I've seen Clemson take care of some pretty truly elite SEC teams in national championship games past And I don't think that burrows gonna have the same level of success in this game as he had in the last game Two very different quality Defenses to very different defense the Brent Venables man You'd you say why is he the highest or I think he's the second highest paid coordinator now But why is he the second highest coordinator paid coordinator in college football because he earned it? Yeah, he gets it done over here. I mean isn't it Randa? It's a very different defense here than then than what they just paid So again, I'll look ahead of plus one my powering number. I didn't change my powering number for either team And now I'm gonna catch plus six. Yeah, I'm interested Yeah And I think that one thing that you talk about Teddy we talked about this when we had you on back in I think it was September is how you want to find areas where the numbers aren't going to fully encapsulate the way a team is currently playing and when you look at full season numbers for Clemson it includes September and There was some talk about Trevor Lawrence having a shoulder injury back then We know Dabbo likes to get his guys in in non-conference play is Clemson a team you view as being undervalued based on their full season numbers potentially leading to this line of plus five and a half Modestly Modestly because again the the September numbers by now aren't fully factored in the equation the way And they were so good in October and November that a lot of that guy, you know, the The sweet spot for Clemson was after that North Carolina game, you know, when they got tested and they came back And when they cover six their next seven You know, they were clearly an undervalued commodity in the market at that point I'm not convinced. That's the case here, but I do think LSU was a little bit overvalued in the markets, you know, again based on a giant LSU's been impressive as hell. Okay. I'm not saying LSU is bad Okay, but when you kill Georgia and then you kill Oklahoma in your last two games and The big national TV highly publicized affairs. It's it's hard for me to picture LSU being anything but overvalued after those type of victories. So let's talk about that in relation to the spread We got five and a half here at Fandall Sportsbook You've alluded to this a couple of times where maybe you're thinking Clemson. Do you think at five and a half Clemson is a good bet? I think you mentioned you may have gotten this number earlier as well Yeah, I got put six in my pocket and look, let's be honest You can find sixes right now They're out there And and I encourage every look when it comes to sports books and they're sponsoring Okay, you guys are sponsored by Fandall. Everybody should open up an account at Fandall Okay, every single person watching this show who is eligible to bet should click on whatever link you have and open up account Right now and take advantage the bonus offers because you want every sportsbook you can get Okay, it's not one if you have a thousand dollar bankroll Split it in half and put half here have it split it in quarters and put 250 and 40 or split it into 10 and put $100 into 10 books Every offer take advantage of it Take get a Fandall account literally today. Don't wait around do it right now give these guys what they need to keep the show going but That doesn't mean it's the only place you should be betting Okay, there are plus sixes available right now if Fandall is hanging a five and a half find a six somewhere If you have ten accounts, you'll always find that number if you have four accounts You'll usually find that number if you have two accounts You have more of a chance of finding that number than you do if you only have one And that's the truth of it. So and I didn't I'd asked me about the total and everyone mentioned it And you asked me about the side. I didn't mention it. I'm getting off off track here No, no, no, that's actually good today. You did mention a little earlier That said maybe you want to wait if you're taking Clemson on the side Do you think this might get to six and a half maybe even seven? Yes. I don't necessarily think there's a rush They the the public Clearly likes the team that just Destroyed their opponent as opposed to the team that didn't play their best game and got lucky to beat their opponent And that's just the nature of what we do in for a single event game like this With all the prep time. I would not be shocked at all to see at some books Lsu laying six and a half before kickoff maybe even a seven popping up I wouldn't be shocked not at every book not in the broader market but Will the books that cater recreational betters hang a six and a half will you shop around? I think you'll find one I think maybe you'll find more than one and who knows what it does on game day So I feel like I may have locked in a little early on that you asked me about the total and I didn't even mention it I want to talk about the only way I could bet this is under okay simply because of what Lsu did against the defense that didn't show up and didn't make adjustments now, they're facing a real defense and Lsu's defense is pretty good, too You know, you need ten touchdowns to beat you if I have to play the total I can only play it under All that said do you really want to spend the entire night of the national championship game? Oh my god and rooting for I mean, it's a hard route man It takes the fun out of it. Yeah, and if it if it's a fun wager for you there, you know fun betting unders No No, it's all right come a kick slow it down slow it down You know and hoops I can make a joke out of it. You're like, all right brick brick. All right slow it down slow it down You know see that over and over again for 48 minutes But in football, you know with these with the level of the closeness of these offense. It's a tough under to sweat Again, if it's profitable you do it anyway Is it extraordinarily profitable? It's just like oh, yeah, this is a 60% one. I don't know if it's a 60% under, you know Yeah, I have not pulled the trigger. We were talking about shopping How high would this number need to be at whatever book you can find it in order for you to actually pull the trigger on the under Are we talking like 71 72 somewhere in there or does it need to get a little bit higher even? I mean It was certainly I would think in terms of a buy a strike price 71 and a half stands out to me. Okay. I haven't done any work on that. That's just off the top of my head sure but It's a strike price that makes sense to me But I don't even know if I do it at that number it might it might end up being like a 72 and a half or I'm waiting until right before kickoff or maybe I'm waiting until five minutes after kickoff Yeah Somebody you know, but then of course you're all The only way you can get there with an under if you're somebody who scores a quick touchdown early I probably don't if I get involved with the total. I'll probably do it before kickoff But yeah, 71 and a half 72 somewhere in that range Excellent. Um, so we have a couple player props for this game passing yardage totals for joe burrow and trevor lorenz burrow is at 365 and a half and lorenz is at 295 and a half any interest for you teddy So Give me burrows number again 365.5 So he went over that You know, not regularly It was less than half. Yeah He had 49 against old miss The alabama game will remember bama got in the 40s. He had 393 He had 398 against vandy and 471 against texas I'm not playing him over that number. I'll tell you that. Okay When you look at the defenses that he was able to do that against None of them were clemson's caliber. We lean under in this game to begin with And that is one high that's as high. I mean, I can't recall one hire I've never seen a quarterback prop higher than this either one of you guys. No I mean ever You know, so With the highest number I've ever seen I can only play it on Yeah, I think that's the right play too And I'm gonna talk about that later in the show too because I think the under there is Viable not only because of the strength of the defense, but you just need so many things to go in his favor There are different gamescript possibilities that lead to an under there. Sure. There is a strength of the defense There are a lot of paths to that number going under I think that's kind of the way I want to view things is how many different ways Can I get to the under here and for burrow under 365.5? I see Several different ways to get there. Well, exactly. I mean if all us using control of the game Burrow ain't going over. Right. Okay. If LSU isn't moving the football Appropriately in the first half burrow ain't going over. I mean, there's I I totally see what you're saying I agree with that assessment 100 percent. There's there's more Game scenarios that favor an under than an over for this one The only one game scenario that favors an over and that's if this is a true shootout, right? And Clemson's defense can't get any stops, right, which is possible. Sure, but I'm not going to bet on that I agree that there's more More chances for under than over for sure percentage wise the under is I think the more advantageous way there Anything else you see Related to this game it can be a bet that you see at Fandall sportsbook or somewhere else or even just insights on this game That you may have based on the research you have done in these two teams throughout the year Anything else you want to mention before we send you on your way? Well, I mean, I saw I was I went through the Fandall props this morning. I appreciate I went through them one by one and you know, I'm like, well, we could look at these team totals Yeah, you know and and again I wouldn't be surprised if those numbers move Because I mean 37 and a half for lsu, you know, I loved about under 38 You know, well, we see it. I don't know I loved about under 38 and a half. That's a true strike price number I don't think we see that but that was one that at least stood out to me a little bit Yeah That I haven't bet but I will as absolutely under consideration As we as we approach the weekend before kickoff So you've got your feelings out there monitoring things and see where the market goes I think that's a great discussion to have teddie. So really appreciate you coming on here and talking about the value of shopping Looking for the best lines you can get and Getting a set for the national championship So I want to thank you once again teddie fun conversation once again, as always appreciate it and Have fun watching the game. Hopefully you can sit back and relax a bit During we appreciate it Hey, the pleasure is all mine and I appreciate you guys not giving me grief about my The cleveland browns are going to be good prediction That we had back you were not alone in that one teddie Yeah, I know but uh, nonetheless I came out of my mouth. It was After the show you you you your claim was like, you know, that's the most talented roster out there And my thought after the show I didn't mention it on the show. I was like, well, what about philadelphia? That's what I said. Yeah And that that didn't look that that doesn't look so great either teddie. So Um, hey, guess what? None of us is perfect in our predictions. So, uh, we're trying We're trying Hey, you know what teddie though? We got to run it back next year baker year three. Let's try it again then. Why not? Uh, so I would expect the browns to have one of the more talented rosters heading into next season as well We'll see what the code Well, thank you teddie. We appreciate that. Hopefully we'll talk to you again soon Cheers guys. Good luck this weekend and good luck in the championship game. Thank you so much for having me Covering the future One big thank you once again to teddie covers teddie savranski for swinging him by find him on twitter at teddie underscore covers And again find his work over at sports memo dot com and teddie was talking about Searching for the best value and betting on games. Hey, what do you know? Let's talk a little odds fire because you can do exactly that by going to odds fire dot com Comparing odds trying to find the best value and even examining first party fan dual data all in one place You can try to identify when the line may move one way or another decide if you want to dive in kind of like teddie He was talking about do I hold off until one day or how do you want to play that never settle? Always get the best odds check out the experience for free now a number fire or an odds fire dot com gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler. It's as if teddie was doing the read for me. So thank you to teddie for that but a lot of good insights for that game and I think that it's uh, I think that his discussion around lsu and Having those two big wins because the sdc championship game remember was basically Like a playing game for georgia if they won that game they'd be in the they'd be in the playoff And that was a high-profile nationally televised game So it's a semi-final obviously and I think it's important to identify When teams are in those spots because it could lead to value in betting against them, which we may see with lsu here Yeah, absolutely. I think there's over exuberance on with lsu In particular on the offensive side of the ball, you know for the total my number is 66 and a half Definitely suggests the under and I think kind of the the narrative around the game and what we expect from the public Certainly sports that absolutely. So let's dive in here to covering the future and talk more about this game We both want to talk about an angle in this game and you were talking about the spread in this game Which way is you are your numbers? Is pushing you for this one? Yeah, so my numbers are a combination of a number of things They actually when when I put them together they they like clumpson by half point. I was a little bit surprised You know, they actually had lsu slightly ahead of clumpson before the game but You know, I mean There were a top three team in college football this year and they were the top three seeds and one of them's obviously gone And and I think like these teams are all really close There's two different metrics that are kind of the primary thing does that go into the My model versus markets to take closing Point spreads and adjust research this year to get my market rankings and and they actually like clumpson quite a bit by six points That is something You know, that's a lot of their performance towards the end of the year when they were really blowing teams out and also You know earlier in the season as well when we expected this to be the best team in the nation After, you know blowing out alabama in the championship game last year as well The other big part is just data from the current season. So this is Based on points based on success rate based on yards per play all adjusted for strength of schedule and here's where lsu excels but even With the data from this year Lsu would be predicted to be about a four and a half point favorite in this game So even if you just look at the the part of the model that likes lsu the most It it's pointing to clumpson plus five and a half and I definitely I think this should be a very close game Let's just step back and take a little bit of a broader view you open the show you talked about Joe burrow versus trevor laurence, you know, who has the advantage I'm going to give the advantage to trevor laurence This morning even been a question at the beginning of the year Joe burrow has obviously had a great season won the heisman laurence has had his struggles But I think if both of these guys were in the nfl draft, I think laurence would would get picked Ahead of burrow right now, you know, partially just because you know, there's just less of a good sample for for joe burrow at this point Defenses, I think these are the two best Coordinators in the business multiple nfl picks on on that side of the ball when you look at the numbers It's it's kind of a push right these are both top top five units We can look at receivers also nfl guys on on both teams Maybe give a slight edge to lsu because they're going to have two guys that are they're going to be picked At running back, maybe slight edge to clemson traves atn is is going to be a top First round, maybe second round pick So kind of when you put it together and if you made me pick a side, I think I would lean slightly towards lsu Just kind of waiting their performance this year a little bit more, but I I mean I I think this is going to be a close game. I think it's going to come down to the end. Maybe a field goal Flips the margin towards the end. So I definitely like Clemson plus five and a half plus six You know, maybe even maybe even a little bit more. Yeah, and I was rewatched I think the closest analog to this game is the lsu alabama game and I think when you think about that game, it's easy to remember that lsu is up 33 to 13 at one point They are wiping alabama, but Even with the alabama kept on clawing back. They were never out of that game I was watching because I was trying to watch to a tongue of aloha for like draft stuff, but like In tuas biggest the biggest criticism around tua is his arm strength, which is not a criticism for Uh for trevor lorence, but tua was launching nukes down the field and connecting And his receivers were getting open and you could say well, that's jerry judy. That's that's henry rugs Like these divante smith. These are amazing players. It's hard to You know replicate that but clemson's wide receivers are pretty freaking good, too So if we're going to see one team that is able to move the ball on lsu's defense and potentially cover a five and a half point spread It's going to be clemson given the talent. They have a quarterback and wide receivers I think that backs up your point about clemson plus five and a half You know just being a bit optimistic about lsu overall Yeah, and and in that alabama game, you remember they made a ton of mistakes in the first two would drop the ball Just dropped it. Uh, he was playing on a sprained ankle. He had like that that heavy wrap on it on his right leg Um, it was a wild game. It was his first game back. I think yeah, well because he rushed back because he had that surgery um And he's right after the fumble. He was awesome And he was just shredding this defense and I think that right like that game actually Made me view tua more optimistically, but it also made me more optimistic about clemson's offense being able to score points here Right And I think that yeah, it should be fun. I don't know if that makes you like the over given the similarities of that game That's very true I'm not going to go with the over though. I am going to go and talk about joe burrow You know, we talked about joe burrow with relation to the spread But I think he's relevant too because as we're talking about teddy that passing prop is really freaking high at 36 and or 365.5 passing yards and He did go over that number by 128 yards in the semi-final I believe he was like there at halftime, but as mentioned with teddy There are so many things that need to go right to hit a prop that is that high because Our clemson cannot get too big of a lead because then they'll be able to coast Edwards healer should be healthier healthier for this game So they should be able to run the ball more But you also can't get too far behind because if you're too far behind Then lsc's or clemson's going to know that you're passing and that's going to drop your efficiency So there are two paths to failure there if clemson gets too big of a lead or if else you get too big of a lead Or if they fall behind too much joe burrow is probably not going to hit this number That's before we even talk about the strength the defense he's facing clemson ranks third in defense of sp Plus according to bill connelly and espn That is the second best defense that burrow has faced this year And we have a pretty good sample on joe burrow against good defenses We can kind of dig in there and see what he's done against them And he's faced five defenses ranked the top 25 by sp plus and he was very good in those games But his yards per attempt went down to 9.76 in that split He averaged 341.6 passing yards per game He was under 365 and a half in four of those five games So if you're looking at like 9.76 yards per attempt, he would need 38 attempts to go over 365.5 And that's that's kind of a lot. Um It's also a lot to expect him to average 9.76 yards per attempt Against the preventables defense. He did play three pretty tight games I think that the one area in which he could go over this is if it's like teddy said it's like a pure shootout He did have three tight games in there against top 25 Defenses, yeah, obama game the auburn game in the florida game He had 393 against alabama 321 against auburn and 293 against florida. So I think that he will do well against his defense. I don't think joe burrow is going to struggle But you need to be so good in order to hit 365 and a half against a defense like this where I think it's just A bit over inflated. I love joe burrow. I think he'll be a very good NFL quarterback He'll be very good in this game But 365 and a half is a really big number now because this is the national championship game. There's a lot of juice here It's minus 112. It's minus 112 on both sides So you're kind of hoping that you get a little bit of wiggle room there You're not getting I would say the best number But I think it's very worthwhile with the number itself being so high at 365 and a half So I want to take the under on that one I was tempted by the trevor laurence over given what we saw by by tua in the alabama game But I think the more advantageous number between the two is to go under on joe burrow at 365.5 And kind of like teddy said the bummer drew it against someone as fun as joe burrow And I had that same issue with russell wilson earlier this year where I was like I bet in under on a seahawks game and I was like I kind of want to watch some russell magic, but I also really don't So there is that to consider, but I would go at the under on that one Yeah, I think it makes a lot of sense in terms of just the over exuberance argument For lsu and their offense in particular. Yeah, and again, you're running against joe burrow But like he can still be really good not to hit 365 and a half So you should be able to enjoy this football game That is all we have for the national championship side of things and any final thoughts for you on clemson lsu I think I leave them all out actually. I think it's going to be a good game. I think it's going to be tight And I'm just excited to be a fan and and and watch it sit back relax Enjoy some football and hopefully a tight ball game and tighten up to cover five and a half as well for clemson What do you have going on this week for you over at the power bank and a football analytics show? Yeah, I was excited to have jj zack recent on the football analytics show my boss Very important guy. I think I introduced him as a content guru at fan duel, which I think is the most appropriate title for his, you know, his varied roles part of what I did for prep For that podcast was to go back and watch our very first episode of covering the spread and Couple things. So first of all, I'm looking down the entire dam episode. So it's like there's there's like so much My forehead is like Entirely in the screen. So I actually remember going back after the first show and looking at that and being like, uh, All right, I need to fix that But secondly, I went back and we had kind of talked about how he had seen value and Derek Henry to ruin the rushing title in the FL I think the thing that we didn't mention was that he also saw value and nick chubb to win that rushing title And he was yeah, he was the guy that had had second. So um When we did that episode I remember thinking how much that I appreciated that JJ runs his own numbers and is very thoughtful about that Not just a content guru. He's actually an analytics guru too in terms of doing those fantasy football numbers So we talked about that a little bit. We talked about some stats that are uh, that he looks for in college running backs that you Probably be surprised at for projecting uh, nfl Performance and then obviously we talked about the divisional game. So uh, it was a lot of fun talking to him Yeah, and you were talking about his process with regards to projections I talked to him enough to know what his process is and It gives you a greater respect for it once you know more about it I and like I trust JJ's numbers a lot Because I know the way he goes about getting them and the way he goes about getting them is the right way to do so Um, so JJ is someone who obviously I have to respect because he's my boss But I would independent of that too because like he does things the right way In terms of trying to generate his numbers trying to take As much information as he can and going about it in the right way, which I think is is super valuable So I'll have to go check that out and make sure I don't get fired mid podcast. We'll see You can find that over at the football analytics show and uh, yeah listening back to what JJ said was uh pretty incredible for that first episode So follow him on twitter as well at late round qb find all of ed's work over at the power rank dot com The podcast is a football analytics show and find ed on twitter at the power rank. I am at gymsonus j i m S a n n e s you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to calvin theobald our video producer for running the video side of things for today Thank you cal as always and a thank you to teddy savranski follow him on twitter at teddy underscore covers Get his thoughts whether bnba college hoops nfl college football whatever it may be Teddy's got a lot of good thoughts so you can find there and that's sports memo dot com Hope you all enjoyed the episode for today. Good luck with your bets for the college football national championship Hopefully things go well and you have a good time watching some awesome football monday night back again tomorrow with chris andrews to break down the nfl divisional round Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread to get that right as it is up We'll talk to you then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network