 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network I'm still catching my pulse checking my pulse after a an absurd sports weekend the insane Saturday NFL games we had the World Cup on Sunday morning We had a really fun slate of NFL games during the day on Sunday to in a thriller lesson on Sunday I football so I'm trying to you know catch my breath But you know no better way to catch your breath and breaking down a Rams Packers game on Monday night when The other teams likely going to playoffs we're gonna break it down Let you know where we see value in the betting markets our favorite props and more at fangirls sportsbook by talking to Tom Becky out here today This is covering the spread right here on the fangirl podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonos. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as mentioned by Tom The Becky oh check him out on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom Ryan Williams out for Paternity leave so congrats to Ryan in advance on that but but Tom Insane sports weekend. How you doing today? I'm doing great. Yeah, like you said It's probably one of the best football weekends that I can Remember over the past like year year and a half side some of the playoff weekends that we've had like this is literally one of the best You know set of games that we've had Saturday was unbelievable from start to finish Maybe not the Browns Ravens game But it was it was certainly some great and starting and ending and then yesterday was crazy like start to finish It was an awesome day and while tonight's game may not be the most exciting on paper. I think there are some interesting angles Interesting difficult you can use whatever word you want I'm leaning towards difficult because I've been trying to think about this game I like I woke up at like five o'clock this morning was like trying to figure out like Not intentionally. I just couldn't fall back asleep I think I was like I still kind of juiced up from last night and like I'll try to think like single-game stuff for DFS. So this is how my day has gone. Thus far. We're gonna break down where we're seeing some value on the board if Andal sportsbook And get you ready to hopefully cap off what has been a fun weekend But before we get to that quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast especially during the holiday season where our schedule be a bit different than usual likely recording the Full preview of the weekend on Wednesday this week as opposed to Thursday So a bit different schedule for the next couple of weeks as a result of the holidays So I'd recommend subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast to get those right as they are posted And also check out covering the spread on the Fandall YouTube page With only a handful of Monday night football games remaining this season Fandall and Visa are coming together to make sure the excitement surrounding Monday nights that an all-time high Introducing Monday night perfect picks presented by Visa a free-to-play contest on Fandall That gives you a chance to win a share of ten thousand dollars in cash prizes courtesy of Visa Here's how it works. You'll be presented with ten questions centered around on field action for Monday nights NFL game Fans who answer the most questions correctly will win their share of the ten thousand dollar prize pool It's that easy the contest is now live so at a fandall.com slash free Slash contest slash visa perfect pick that's and make your picks before Monday night That's fandall.com slash free slash contest slash visa perfect picks no purchase necessary age and location Restrictions apply void were prohibited see full terms at fandall.com Visa and its financial institutions have not sponsored or offered this motion in any way Let's dig in now to this game We got the Rams at the Packers and Tom will talk about the betting markets for this game with the Packers favorite by seven here in Just one second the first may top-down perspective I want your view on this game because like I said, I'm having a hard time wrapping my braider on this one Yeah, tonight's game is certainly interesting as I mentioned, you know both teams on the outside looking in You know, not mathematically eliminated, but it's it's the reality of the situation for both teams I think we're in for a much slower pace game tonight Lower scoring my overall take is that the Packers win the Rams cover and we hit the under is essentially the Like the the theory that I'm going with or like my my thesis for tonight of how I'm targeting things where Slower pace game like both these teams on the bottom ten league for seconds per play. I don't see them pushing the ball You know, I don't say there's weather involved in tonight's game. It's not like it's gonna be super windy There might be a little bit snow, but it's gonna be super super cold I do not see these teams getting up and down the field quickly So that's the kind of you know overarching theme that I'm going with tonight the under Packers winning But the Rams covering Okay, so I Was kind of surprised when you mentioned that the Rams still a playoff chance and I checked and apparently they're a net They're at less than point one percent. So there is a chance. You're telling me there's a chance not mathematically eliminated yet There's a chance But obviously this isn't what the the schedule makers had envisioned with the Rams and the Packers late season They expected this to be like two teams fighting at the top of the NFC, but this is not what we have I don't think they expected Baker may film this game I think we can say that with a good amount of certainty the Packers playoff odds according to 538 6% So that's still like legitimate if they win it goes up to like 8% So like they're still involved for sure, but I didn't realize the Rams actually had a shot The NFC is a weird weird. There's no X next to their name just yet. Not yet. It's lingering It's waiting. I think actually if they lose they can still somehow make it anyway. It's weird It's very odd the way this work I'm guessing the tie the Washington Giants tie might have played a role in that in some way, but I don't know man It's a it's a weird weird place for sure Okay, so you mentioned you thought this would be a low-paced game a slow-paced game low-scoring game Think that the Packers win the Rams cover So there are a lot of ways you could play this in terms of the traditional markets when you're looking at those traditional markets with the total of 39 and a half and the Packers at seven point favorites What's your preferred way to play it there? Are you actually playing anything there? Or are you using those assumptions to help guide your profits? So I will as of now when I'm playing thing if I have to pick it would be the Rams You know I would take the Rams plus seven the Packers both teams have been bad against the spread this year That that's obviously pretty clear, but if I'm if I had decided any it would be the Rams I'm gonna use that kind of as my My guiding light is like where I'm looking for some player props I think there are some Favorable spots to attack when you look at the offensive usage obviously things have changed a lot for both teams notably the Rams Just obviously with their quarterback changing, but I still think there's a really favorable spot for the Packers in their receiving market Which we'll get to so right now It's the Rams plus seven for me if I had to make a pick and I might be on it come the end of the day Yeah, okay So that one is the plus seven is minus one ten right now in financial sports Looking at my models this game they disagree which is great So means I can just ignore them and not bet anything on this game in terms of the sides My traditional model has the Packers by five point seven points the newer model has it by eight point nine So very different numbers and the actual market is right between them So I can just sit that part out and not worry about a spread in this game the total I just built my total model last week, and it's back tested The games where it showed value on Sunday slash Saturday didn't go as well So I'm not gonna have a play on the total it does like the over it has the total here at forty one point five So about two points above the current total that doesn't count for weather so I Don't know it's not enough where I would take it given that I just built this model and my level of confidence in it Is not quite there yet, but there is value in the over based on that for whatever that's worth So for me what it winds up being is I think this is a stay-away I think that the market has this one pretty fairly pegged in terms of how it's viewing both teams here It's a very volatile game though So I would say that if you are interested in the Rams if you think that the Baker Mayfield stuff from last week is like Legitimate because it's a volatile game that would get some credence to checking out the money line there because It is plus 270 right now at Vandalsports book again, I don't see enough to take that but if you Think that Baker Mayfield what he did last Thursday is legitimate and he can actually make Tutu at well Van Jefferson Benz Geronik all those guys be you know somewhat legitimate I think I'd take swing for the fences and be a bit more aggressive because it is a volatile spot take advantage of the Volatility because it could also collapse. It's Baker. You know, that's that's in play there, too So I think that if I were looking at that side, I'd go towards the money line personally But I'm okay with making low percentage bets At times, right? I also like think we need to take into account the game environment that we saw last week that allowed Baker to put up some of the stats where they were trailing They were forced into a passing game script It was a dome like we're talking about like pretty ideal conditions for him to put up You know like 35 or 36 passing attempts whatever was so I think we need to take that in consideration Did they want him passing the ball that many times like after he's been there for 48 hours or whatever? It was probably not but they were forced to obviously worked out for them But I think again given what we've seen like can makers has been okay in some of these recent games for them So I could see them using acres a little bit tonight a little bit more than we saw last week Yeah, well when they got Calvin skaronik out at wide receiver, you know Just mossing dudes down the field Contestant catches maybe they'll pass more because of that. That's not an actual assumption. Okay Let's dig in here to the player props for this game starting off on the Packers side And one thing I have my eye on coming out of their buy week was Aaron Jones because tonight that bears game before the buy He missed a lot of snaps He grabbed his shin after a run play in the fourth quarter played only like three snaps in the second half in that game And so I wanted to see what his practice involvement would be coming off the buy And he got three limited sessions now. He's not on the injured report like he didn't have a designation He's he's gonna play but the fact that he was not a full practice yet to me was Pretty alarming. I don't want to be like, you know overboard on that, but I thought it was pretty concerning So I think that's the key thing for me with with Packers props is I don't expect Aaron Jones to be like full full full Aaron Jones right now where you seem value on the Packers side Tom So I'm I'm definitely on board with that I you know in the preseason I was big on AJ Dylan in the role that I thought he was gonna play because of the inconsistency in their Receiving court thought they were gonna use Aaron Jones more, you know split out wide playing a lot so I'm still high on AJ Dylan and if you know if Jones isn't gonna be fully healthy. I think I would just lean me towards Dylan a little bit more taking some unders on Aaron Jones. I think when the unders I like the most would be under on Robert Tanya the tight end. It's at 22 and a half He's he's kind of been pushed out of the passing offense in some of these recent weeks playing a very very limited role Not to mention the fact that the Rams are pretty solid against line I have their linebackers have been pretty solid against tight ends this year. So I'm on board with basically any and all Unders for Aaron Jones overs for Dylan and then under for Robert Tanya Yeah, looking at those numbers on the Packers backfield the rushing yardage props for Dylan and Jones 49 and a half for Dylan 55 and a half for Jones the rushing plus receiving numbers 63 and a half for AJ Dylan and 78 and a half for Aaron Jones I think that if I were looking for ideal ways to attack those I would be looking towards the rushing plus receiving over for Dylan because He's involved in the passing game. I'm when Aaron Jones is healthy yet like four targets in that last game but 63 and a half rushing plus receiving is I Find that to be my favorite way to attack the backfield if I'm going with the assumption that Aaron Jones is still not fully himself I think that'd be the route that I would take right and I know I'd like a part of me wants to say They're not officially eliminated But they basically are like do they need to be pushing Jones out there if he's not actually a hundred percent Do they need to be pushing him out there in a game? That doesn't mean anything when they have AJ Dylan like I don't know how many years Jones has left on his contract but he just signed a new one The last offseason or this offseason. It was one of the other because there was like There was like 16,000 rumors about how he's gonna sign with Miami and then never made it there Right, so if he has multiple years like left on his contract like do they really need to push him out there in this game? When they're essentially eliminated from the playoffs like this is where we start to take in like I said, you know The last time I was on here We're talking about the was it the bucks and the Saints like we want to take that step back and like Actually look at the teams like who's in a spot to win. What do they need to get done? Now that these teams are essentially eliminated. It's like, okay Maybe they're gonna give some other players a shot This would lean towards Jones under to begin with even if it was fully healthy just so they get other players involved Not to mention the fact that he's injured or not fully healthy, right? I think it's a lingering thing with that shin because it's been he's been on the injured for a long time with that His cap number next year is 20 million dollars. That's absurd He's got two more years in his contract I don't think they would he's a very good player like he deserves to be up the like my gosh I didn't realize how high it was that isn't cap. Hell. So like my my thing is like Do they need to push out a player that they that they're heavily invested into for essentially a meaningless game? Yeah, and and for the risk I don't know worsening this in long term. Yeah. Yeah What's your favorite way to attack the backfield there if you had to choose one of those props It would probably just be straight with Dylan straight Dylan over rushing You know his his reception prop. I think is it is only one and a half, right? The total receptions What's the juice on that? It's so it's one one and a half. It's minus 128 That's not it. It's not the worst spot in the world like one and a half receptions is obviously not a lot He's been getting a little bit more involved in the passing him as you mentioned So there's certainly some opportunity for a jail and combined with the fact that his receiving prop is also at 10 and a half minus 113 Okay, yeah There's more. I think there's multiple ways that if you think Jones isn't fully healthy and they're just gonna pound the ball with Dylan That's a way to go about it and frankly Dylan's receiving props are pretty low. Yeah I find that very interesting given the way they've used him They there was a lull this year where they stopped they kind of scale back a bit on him But that's not that's not happening anymore with Jones being banged up. Okay Let's flip sides and talk about the Rams here Baker Mayfield his first start He missed that first series you remember a Thursday how wild that whole scenario was Where is he in value on the Rams side in this game? That would be with camp makers over 55 and a half rushing yards I know you mentioned just prior to us hopping on that you like the under on his total Russian plus for They post it which they have it which is not posing. We're obviously making assumptions on that But I like the over 55 and a half now Green Bay isn't particularly good against running backs This season again combined with the usage for camp makers and I got to say I was Not big on camp makers at all this season in terms of season-long drafting him just coming off this injury the Kind of uncertainty we had when it comes to the Rams backfield. Obviously when Henderson was there I was really really low on camp makers Obviously, it's been a whirlwind of a season for him But he's actually looked pretty good and had some tall of usage in the recent weeks combined with what I think from this game Overall, they don't want to have Baker throwing the ball 40 some odd times They're gonna lean on the running game combined with the like the weather isn't amazing Like it's gonna be like 10 degrees or 15 degrees with the wind like this is kind of a slower running game and acres can get there on volume Yeah, the acres one I was looking because I wanted to see what his rushing plus receiving would be it's not up yet as I said The reason I want to look at that is because he doesn't get a lot of work in the passing game I don't think they like him at all in the passing game So I could just look at receiving props, I guess, but they're not up either so I can't do that But um if you had to guess Tom a little trivia for you, okay What is the most rushing plus receiving yards for a Rams running back this year? So between him Henderson and Williams, I mean I I would want to say over a hundred But their offense has been so bad like their offensive line was horrible in the beginning of the season I'm gonna say 87 73 in week one They have max so acres had 62 in week two and That's his most of the season Which is why I want the rushing plus receiving under because I agree with you about the matchup where they could keep the ball in the ground Be effective against a very very bad Packers rush defense. I like my initial read is okay I want the under on the rushing but then I thought through the match was like, okay Don't really want to get there Which is why I wanted the safety blanket of the rushing plus receiving so they hang that number I want to look at it right away. And if it is close to 70 I'm probably in but I want to see it. I haven't seen it anywhere yet But if they give us a favorable number there I'm taking it and again, that's not in conflict with what you're saying because again I want to take advantage of his lack of involvement in the past and even the fact this team stinks But the matchup does matter that's definitely there for sure now with the past catchers here You can kind of like go at it if you want the problem is where do you go? Because I think Van Jefferson is the most talented guy in this team But he had I think four targets in that game with Baker. He played well But like not a lot of looks there Ben Scurrani because at 30 and a half Jefferson 31 and a half to to at well 32 and a half Evan Silva Established the run has this joke where to to at will cannot score Touchdowns outdoors because he will blow away because he weighs 112 pounds. Um, I buy into that personally Maybe it's not a joke. Maybe it's just a fact so I Wanted to go to van but like the use in that first game was a little bit concerning Did any read for you on the past catchers? Yeah This is this is probably the toughest spot of the night and it's it's kind of what you said it's like these all of these players at well Scurrani and Jefferson have all shown upside at various times We've seen Jefferson have a super high a dot for the Rams and previous seasons So he's a player that can you know realistically get to his receiving prop or longest reception on literally one play But there's no dominant. There's no dominant option. They're all like good ish options So if you want to take a dart throw I guess you just take the one that has like the longest odds for a touchdown What you like I don't think there's a right answer I also don't think there's a wrong answer here Which means it's a complete stay away spot for me where no one's seeing a dominant amount of usage We don't know what the Rams offense is gonna truly look like after one game sample with Baker Mayfield So if you are super high on Jefferson, great if someone else is gonna be super high on Scurrani That's also great But it's simply a stay away spot for him because there's no clear indication of who is going to be that number one option I think the way I'd want to do it is I want to go to the alt market because again There you are taking advantage of volatility It's a volatile situation where I don't know who will be getting the work here But I think there is a path to a good game wherever it does wind up being quote-unquote like the guy if there is a guy in this offense Jefferson's all receiving number for 40 plus yards is plus 144. I think that's intriguing He had two deep targets and Baker for overall targets. Well, yeah, not great work But maybe another week involved with Baker stuff like that for 50 plus yards. He's at plus 240 So I think I'd rather go there rather than like the the raw line take advantage of how Uncertain the situation is right like I said, he's had a high a dot over the past few seasons He's kind of been that wild card. Yeah, you know, at least when Stafford was there It's like he's been that wild card option for them where you you know, you had a cup you had woods who are at least consistent Obviously and then it was like, oh Van Jefferson that third-wider see you're like He's gonna have these weird blow-up games where he has like two catches for like 70 yards or something and a touchdown against the Cardinals Or whatever it is So I'm I'm totally on board with that theory. Yeah, you also the Ben Scurronic Midwest narrative played college at two different Midwest universities So back in the Midwest facing the Packers, you know, you got that going for you If you if you care about that, which you definitely should not you mentioned touchdown props Tom as being a way to take advantage of the past catchers here, right? So whether it's with them or elsewhere, what do you see as far as value in the touchdown market at Fandall Sports? My favorite is Alan Lazard at plus 270 the Lazard King You know kind of not miles me close the Lizard King the Lazard King You know kind of a I'm gonna say a slow couple of weeks for him in recent outings But you know, we've seen Christian Watson step up and have some you know big games a lot of touchdowns for him Randall Cobb you've kind of to the end zone a couple weeks ago against who was it Philly But Lazard still coming into the 21.1 percent market share 32.7 percent air yards market share 12.5 a dot more importantly at 24.5 red zone market share Which is all really good and you know I'm of the belief that quarterbacks try to keep their star wide receivers happy and Due to the involvement that he has in the offense overall and he hasn't scored in three or four I think it's four weeks now for Lazard like he's kind of due for a touchdown and ultimately the Rams Defense isn't amazing. They're bottom half the league for most yards and most touchdowns allowed to wide receivers so I think it all kind of lines up with a pretty big number for the Prominent offensive pass catcher. I know that's overall in the season Watson certainly taking a big step forward. Yeah, I Think that's interesting 270 is a pretty long number. I also looked at Cobb at six to one Pretty long. I know Romeo Dobbs is full in practice, but there was a quote this week from I believe Matt LaFleur saying that It was hard to know how much to ramp him up given how much time he had missed. That's somewhat concerning I think that Cobb will still have a role. Now, that's not my favorite one My favorite number If you have a gag reflex Tom, I I would I would encourage you to Engage it now. Dammy Watkins. No, absolutely not Slightly shorter odds than Sammy Watkins a 20 to 1 Malcolm Brown is 15 to 1 The Rams elevated him to the active roster. I think a couple weeks ago. They signed it to the active roster Which means he will be available for this game I think he was on the practice squad before but he's on the active roster now he's 15 to 1 at Vandalsports but score touchdown and Brown Did have one of their five red zone chances in that game against the Raiders last Thursday night The other game where he was active was back in week 9. He had 1 out of 5 red zone chances Then I couldn't be 6 1 out of 13 then he had o of 2 in week 5 So week 4 so like he's somewhat involved in the red zone at times We've seen him be involved there previously. We like the matchup on the ground for For them. I Don't mind that. I Don't mind it. I don't it doesn't make you feel good But like I'd rather go there than like Baker may feel that 11 to 1 It's also funny that the both defenses are more likely to score than the two quarterbacks Which is a symbol of this game But I think that Malcolm Brown 15 to 1 is Enough to get my attention where I'm like, okay I could I've not bet this but I could consider that and may wind up doing it Okay, I mean I the you're playing this is like an opportunity a roll thing the opportunities have been there for him The match was certainly there and it's obviously a pretty big number Yeah, like red zone red zone touches red zone looks like those are really important and especially this time of season like You know, there's no reason for him not to be out there in certain situations if he has the trust of McVeigh, which is a thing in its own for running backs with McVeigh like That is if he's gonna be out there 15 to 1 like I could see that as a little bit of a dart throw I just checked so I live in Rhode Island means I have to bet off the like lottery sportsbook He's 8 to 1 here. I don't want to drive to Connecticut. It's 33 minutes and I don't have time for that today, but No, he doesn't they're all shorter because it's a monopoly Monopolies are great. Love monopolies big fan. Can't wait to move it Illinois This is the same thing as Rashid Shaheed think a couple weeks ago, right? He's like Four to one here. He was like eight to one everywhere else. Just right. I gotta move man I can't do it Taylor is eight to one on the Fandals, right? That's a pretty big difference. Oh, that's upsetting Okay, any others you want to shout out here before we close up No, I think that this game is It's one of those games that I feel like you're either gonna be super right or super wrong on a lot of things and like the wide receivers for the Rams kind of Bring like is where I'm getting that feeling It's like if you're on scurronic and he has a big game Like you're gonna hit all the props on the alt one and the touchdown is I mean his touchdown prop is plus 480 Like if he has a touch down like you're just gonna be right And if you just happen to be on Jefferson and he doesn't get any of the looks because there's no Dominant option then you're just wrong and it's kind of one of those games where it's like you just gotta you got to live with the variance of what we're gonna be seeing and Kind of move on to it's a Thursday But also like take advantage of the variance, right? And then the high upside is there if you nail scurronic and he has a huge game like you're crushing like plus 480 plus 230 on the alt lines like et cetera, etc. You would be in a great spot Yeah, volatility can be your friend as long as you embrace it and take account for it and stuff like that So like you said be okay with volatility volatility is okay if you can take advantage of it You know be in some different markets and stuff like that. I think that's the way I'd want to play things for tonight All right, that is all that we have here for today on this Monday night football preview But still four shows in total for this week We'll be skipping the Friday show as a result of that being on the day before Christmas Eve Christmas Eve Eve So still four shows for this week though get those by subscribing To covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and while you're there if you like what you hear Leave us a rating interview as well. Tom. Good luck to you tonight. We'll talk to you once again soon Thanks for having me can find Tom on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom check out his write-ups of these island games over on Numberfire.com as well to get his thoughts all the props. Maybe we'll squeeze them out the brown one in there I can add to that to the fact just add it in there and put it on your name not not mine No one listens to the podcast so we're good. I will make that work. You'll never ever know I am on Twitter at Jim Son is J. I am s a and n e s. Good luck to all of you tonight We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to take our first look at NFL week number 16 This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network