 Week five main slate in daily fantasy baseball is a bit of an odd duck because typically we have a lot I Know I know we're having technical issues, but it's not daily fantasy baseball. Oh, that's a baseball Oh, don't make me. Don't make me. Wow. Oh, no, I'm so sorry I've been talking baseball for the past six months six decades finally was free of that yesterday And now I've decided to revert to that Please no no tomorrow. We have I mean the pretty good slay for baseball Oh saying this this this week five football slate is weird at best, but No to talking baseball. So okay. Well, we'll all convince you later on anyway. It's a football podcast I promise we're gonna talk about some running backs. Those aren't in baseball, but the weird thing about this slate is that the Mid-range backs are probably the best range and typically that's not the case So it's gonna be a bit of a different process for us this week breaking down why we like those guys We think of the the upper tier guys and hopefully getting you set for a an interesting and fun daily fantasy Football slate in week five. This is the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always By Brandon Gedula. He is a senior managing editor and baseball hater on the number fire slack Brandon Welcome to week five. How you doing today? Good overall, I mean, it's we get to talk football and not not baseball. So that's a plus But I think that we get to think about the slate pretty differently Then what we normally do usually We have, you know, a lot of quarterbacks we need to spend up for To roster we have a few of them. We have some potential value options at quarterback, which is not The crux of the heat check Historically, we got some running backs. Like you said in the value range No real stud tight ends. So we get to talk about some some different players If we want to talk about different sports like instead of baseball and we do golf This is like a like a swing season golf event or talk about guys who we just never talk about So it's gonna be a bit of a different show talking about teams We never talk about because like typically the Patriots are like a cross-off for us But like I kind of think there's at least one guy on that team who's is somewhat enticing for this week against the lion So we'll break down that also we could talk about some stud receivers for the first time in a while I find that pretty enticing too. So we'll break everything down and get you set for some NFL DFS as mentioned the MLB Podcast done for the year, but still a lot of good stuff here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed NASCAR for the Charlotte Roval is coming up either today or tomorrow depending on how productive I am the rest of today It would be one of the other but that'll be up later on this week Brandon's doing PGA I'm back next week is next week a good is next week an actual field if I can talk to others It's either CJ cup or Zozo. I think Those are actually in the fields. So I'll be back next week. Yeah, I'll be talking to this week. This week's a good one What is this week said the the Shriners? Yeah, okay? I only know except had to like embed like the the article and stuff. So we got can't lay we got Homa We got like eight of the 12 international guys from the president's cup. Yeah, that's good. I guess But still Let's talk football. Sorry I'll be back in the the golf podcast next week and fire off some hot takes that I haven't gotten to talk about for the past Month and a half over there But also a lot of good stuff by NBA just around the corner all that over on the number fire daily fantasy podcast We get that wherever you get your podcasts Each and every day twisted TNF and will have joined forces to bring you a one-of-a-kind Contest series that gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars in site credit Introducing twisted T's college football picks a sports betting focused contest series That's entirely free to play the contest is simple each college football game will be assigned money lines spread and total markets With assigned points each market all you have to do is make six selections based on those three markets and earn points Reach correct selection you made if at the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contest You'll be eligible for your share of site credit head if annual comm slash twisted T picks and make your picks and remember Please drink Responsibly let's dig into the slate overview for this week five main slate and brand I think we kind of spoiled this one. I think to me the overview here is It's a different slate in terms of roster construction and that to me is the defining characteristic mid-range running backs We like don't need to prioritize any like 8,000 $7,500 tight ends and it does lead to a very unique week. What about for you? What's the defining characteristic of week five? Yeah, I think a big part of it is Figuring out the predictable upside and predictable upside does belong to a few receivers, but Realistically if you're looking at long-term projections Predictable upside belongs to quarterbacks because they touch the ball in every play Unless there's some you know wildcat situation like we saw with the the Giants last week with sake one who should probably just touch the ball in every play honestly, but also running back and Those are the more volume driven positions and so we have we still have a few guys on the slate who can put up big numbers But we also have value at those positions and so we got to figure out what we're doing with the more predictable bankable upside and you know from from the positions that we don't Normally spend down at and so I think it's just all it's it's what you said in a different way like roster construction And figuring out how we're how we're willing to be different this week. Yeah, I was like when I first thought about this late I was a little bit apprehensive about it because I was like, okay You know, it's it's not a gym of in kind of week But when I actually filled out like sat down and filled out a lineup I've done a couple for the Thursday through Monday's late and then one for the main slate I actually felt pretty good about it and that was surprising to me and I think it was because I Had logical outlets for the increased salary that and I didn't have to force it with value play So I didn't like and we'll talk about that as we go through injuries and stuff because that's pertinent there but like I Thought that was encouraging for me with regards to this late as a whole So we'll talk about that throughout the show for today for now Let's dive into some injuries for this late Tom Brady this practice Wednesday Due to injuries on his right shoulder and his right ring finger It was not his left ring finger though that one seems a bit damaged as well We'll talk about the bucks in the bookmaker section Brian Robinson Seems likely to make his debut for the commanders this week He missed the first four weeks of being shot in an attempted robbery So it's great to see him back and that's I think the the biggest takeaway here is that he's back and that's great But it means we can just avoid this backfield for dfs correct yeah, this is like a Season-long desperation flex kind of situation and that's different than who you like target on a main slate primarily Yeah, I'd agree with that Same team Johan Dotson missed practice Wednesday. He is expected to potentially sit with a hamstring injury Curtis Samuel also missed practice, but it was due to an illness. So he should be good to go We have been okay with these pass catchers so far But they can cannibalize each other a bit So we're taking one of those guys out of the equation up your interest in Samuel or terry mclauren against titans It would but that game's slow and kind of ugly overall So i'm thinking in like henry bringbacks. Yes outside of that Most likely still not enough to to want to target Especially because this is probably one of the few weeks of the year We're all be able to build around wide receiver Yeah, I think I'd agree with that too. Um, likely no trail on berks on the the titan side But I don't want anything to do with any of those titans receivers. That doesn't really impact anything there I do think it would increase sandals being like a a lower soured option He's $700. Uh, he gets reds on rushes, which is all I care about at wide receiver So I would say increased interest, but I'm more likely to be in the upper range at wide receiver for this week so Plays and they will not be Like I think it might be kind of what you said where it's like a henry Bring back to offset his salary a bit. That might be the way I play things for those guys The falcons plays cordial Patterson that I are with his knee injury Tyler algear read a led a rotation on sunday, but avery williams and Caleb huntley Got in the mix as well. Kyle pits. Meanwhile, mispractice the hamstring injury I did have a dream last night that that Tyler algear had like a long rushing touchdown um Although it didn't look like him in my dream. I remember like tilting that he was that he had a touchdown So I'm not sure what that means I dreamt about him because I was looking up pronunciation because I get paranoid because there's a nascar darin and just an algear Um, and everyone said algear and I think that's correct, but like I got paranoid So I dreamed about him last night and he scored a touchdown But I don't think I'm going to use him despite the dream Um, was it like a broadcast? Yeah, like So did the where the announcers say for his last name algear new dream? Okay. Yeah. Um, he was worried I don't know if it was like the all 22 that you were grinding in your sleep or if it was no It was a broadcast angle because I remember the the key thing was like the the guys like blocking downfields for him Like throwing really good blocks downfield. Well, he was wearing number four and he's 25 So I don't know why that was He was they just thought it wrong Yeah I don't know. Anyway, maybe it wasn't him. Anyway, uh thoughts on the backfield and the past catchers of pits being bagged up I mean, I don't have any dream analysis here, but uh, I think there's one words It's probably too easy to get wrong Which is something let me talk about with like Predicting backfield splits once, you know, someone's hurt ahead of them on the depth chart I think it's too easy to get wrong Probably not enough upside to get right If I'm wrong in that I'll live with it but Not the best matchup. I mean Tampa Bay's front hasn't been as daunting statistically, but I don't really know. Um, if I'm bringing it back When you know any bucking your stuff, it's going to be through Drake London, it's London or nothing. I think like because I think that the floor for algae or could be okay because he's probably going to get a decent amount of work, but I don't know what the upside is and he's also his salary is $5,700 I could just spend $300 more Get to Ramon or Stevenson get to Devin Singletary spend 900 more to get to to Breeze Hall If you're playing the thursday through monday slate, Nike behind the 63 not that I've I like this that's late a lot this week I'm just gonna keep talking about it, but And in your defense too like usually I push back make of 900's not like you can't just say I'll find 900 This week if we're talking about guys in that range if we're not rostering Josh Allen or Jaylen Hertz We have doubt and cook at 73 like there are ways to find an extra 900 to get up to you know a priest or something like that If it if it were like I think lg here will play 75% of the snaps if there's no akeem hicks stuff like that But I don't think he'll play 75% of the snap think hunt leo mix in Williams will mix in and that's enough where I am Okay, not being there. David Montgomery mispractice again on wednesday Due to his knee and ankle injuries if montgomery sits again, where are you at on cleal herbert at $7100? Um, I would probably I think I've learned to treat this just as like what would I do with David Montgomery if he were healthy? um, maybe a little bit more than that, but also we saw um A 77 snap rate. So it was not 95 percent Uh for for herbert last week 54 route rate 21 adjusted opportunities. So carries plus Double your targets. It was good I don't know if I would be super excited to play David Montgomery in this spot as a what are they like 7.100 dogs? Yeah, my numbers have it at nine. I think so even a bit heavier than that It it could be worse But it's going to be really hard to play a lot of like herbert over dalvin cook I think it depends on how Spread out I decided to get my player pool this week because from raking out running backs like the Dalvis up there. I want to get a lot of singletary a lot of remandre Well, maybe not a lot a decent on a remandre and then a lot of breeze hall and then Do I decide to when i'm differentiating from those guys? Do I go with Henry do I go with macafery? Do I go with chubb jamal williams or do I go to a guy like little herbert? I'm probably going to lean elsewhere. So herbert's not a bad play um Because he should give volume the matchup's not that bad and I feel good about that aspect of it, but I think there are just guys that like more so as i'm whittling down my player pool I might not get there and that's not like a A dislike of him. It's more so just I don't want to play everybody and he's on the fringe of getting getting lopped off at some point Yeah, this is the kind of week where you can really fall into the trap of playing Too much of everyone because nobody jumps out I mean a few guys jump out substantially, but a lot of guys jump out in different ways And so and if I am trimming down my pool I think I have the most conviction The guys who are like the the closest to being like great values relative to salary are at running back So I think that's where I'd be most inclined to be concentrated as a running back Yeah Okay, uh brian hoyer didn't practice wednesday due to a concussion mac jones Did get in a limited session who might be able. Yeah, I know mac jones He might be able to play against the lions Other option there is bailey zappy Any interest in any patriots guys for you depending on their quarterback health of jones and zappy I really think that it's just remandre or nothing here Yeah, um similar to the drake london or nothing situation with the falcons I I don't know if If like a receivers or a patris receiver was like free to roster. I still might not be trying I'll be back this week. I think based on his practice wednesday It It's just going to be all spread out There wasn't enough there that I saw last week to to want to bog down lineups tied to patriots pass catchers Nope, I don't either. Uh, even if it is mac jones, I think that uh, the reason we're on in run remandre We'll talk about in the Trends section talking about mid-range running backs, but damien harris in three games without time on gummary 14.7 carries per game. So he's at 18.7 adjust opportunities, but that's actually less than what remandre has Fewer yards per game harris does have a better red zone role But I think remandre had a lower salary For his role is the better play between those two guys The lions did not have de andre swift amon rossin brown dj charke josh reynolds and tj hawkinson at practice on wednesday reynolds and hawkinson played through their stuff last week They should be good to go hawkinson Uh, not a back injury from carry of the team last week, but either way, uh, he was on the injured reports Do all these potential absences worry you? with guys like demal williams, um and hawkinson, I guess as well because It could just be a situation where the lions are too beat up to be Like a really great option I kind of thought that might have been the case last week and it wasn't um at a certain point it is A bit too many injuries. It's not a I mean they're implied to in totals 21 three and a half point underdogs on the road I I know we talked about hawkinson on monday's recap show as like, uh, if everyone's out You consider going back, but I think i'm probably Just going to avoid hawkinson and say that He might be the te one, but I don't think he has like the mark andrews kelsey range of outcomes Which is silly because he just did but I think this is a much different game environment. Uh, so i'm probably out on Uh, hawkinson specifically what are your thoughts on this theme right now? Well, sour's got juiced up a lot for both guys too jamal is 83 hawkinson 7 000 And that's like a big difference from where they were this past week. So you need them to be Like studs like unquestioned studs at that those respective salaries. So jamal Probably just not going to get there honestly. Uh, he still had some holes in his role Which is hard to say some holes in his role this past week about a 52 snap rates Not the best passing game workload either. So I'm okay not going there. Uh, hawkinson If he gets in a full practice and those guys are all still out then like I could see some but like Probably just for remandre game stacks and that's I might not even do that honestly. I just like I like other guys more so Increased salaries matter a lot Alvin chimera was able to practice their sitting out last week due to a rib injury michael thomas jarvis landry and jane It's winston all sat though Let's say chimera returns with andy doll in the quarterback What's your interest level there and then also your interest level in chris olave if we assume it is dalton starting once again um, yeah, I mean with With olave, I think i'm in regardless. I think he just is is going to be featured in this offense and The air yards won't be as good, but I think the opportunity is still there and you know, maybe a little bit more efficiency for for chimera I kind of would like it. Uh, I haven't loved his role and his usage overall, but Looking at like collio herbert versus alvin chimera It could be one of those weeks where I just work ret not playing chimera against the seahawks and instead like tried to go at Herbert at 71 in a much grosser game. Yeah, but chimera be well below dalv, right? Oh, yeah, okay Yeah, I think that chimera is in the herbert discussion just based on overall expectations, but I mean with all the injuries like they could also be in the same discussion as the lions We're like they're kind of two beat up to to be great. I that wouldn't bother me for olave I I'd still have a lava, but like for chimera at seven thousand that might be a bit too much for me there um And if I need to wiggle things down, I think that I'm okay probably lopping him off at this point. Um But olave, I think is totally fine. Whether it's chimera or sorry jamus or dalton. Don't care. Uh, andy dalton or tony dalton pick one Uh, who's tony dalton? um Better call sol Shoot, I can't think of his name. Oh, he's the bad guy. Um He's like a spider man blended with like superman He jumps over fences. Oh, what's his name? Did we watch the same show? Yes, uh, tony dalton breaking that I'm saying this as I google it out loud Uh Lalo, sorry, I couldn't think of his name lalo. That's how you would describe lalo solomonka I could be anything even close. I would have got it I don't know. I didn't know his name Um Actually, that's a lie. I I now I know uh, I recall we watched some some blooper reels after we finished the show They're pretty good. I would imagine they would be uh, but would you pick andy dalton or tony dalton knowing now that he's lalo? um, I would I would have to arrow up on uh This offense if if tony dalton was under center. I would agree with that as well Okay, boston scott returned to a limited practice on wednesday. He sat last week partially aiding myle sanders huge game So it's scott is back. How do you shift your view of myle sanders against arizona? Got to bump it down. I mean myles coming off of a big game I talked recently. Sorry anyone listening just i'm all over the place because i'm on different I keep typing on my computer in front of me and that's not the one i'm typing to search Try to find lalo's name. So I don't normally look off screen this much, but i'm like typing in. I do all the time All my number's over here So I look over here and I feel like people think i'm not listening to them, which i've yeah, well I know well, you don't I know that you don't listen to me. So you don't have to put I care I care if ryan knows that i listen to ryan But like I I want him to think that I listen to him and I am listening to him But I will I don't want him to think i'm not even i'm looking like i'm looking over here at my numbers But i'm still listening at the same time unless i don't blame because I don't care Yeah, I don't blame you for listening to him and not me. That's probably the right call He's not a hear man. He's not a great year for betting. It's been good With yeah with miles. I mean look he He got The salary boost after a two touchdown game. I talked I think it was week two I talked about trends after guys score And like they always see their salary go up They tend to score it about the same rate as they do long term Not the game before so that scoring comes back down you take off one one touchdown obviously for running back That's at least 6.1 points Miles sanders has a lot of other question marks in his usage I think that he's a fine play if you're stacking this game, which I think makes a lot of sense to do But outside of game stacks. I don't think that he's really in the conversation um Would you be more inclined here's a good one? Uh Because I have trouble with both of these guys as well as miles But how would you rank Leonard for net at 7800 miles sanders at 7600 and damien pierce at 7500 each It's tough like are they are they all borderline just cross them off At the salaries or they like they're kind of appealing, but I don't know at the salaries with And again, like we love dalvin. We're not gonna be alone in that dalvin's probably gonna be super chalky, but I think for net might be chalky too based on projections projections. Love them. Yeah. Yeah, I'm lower on him than those um, so Okay, ranking them out Pierce I worry because I think the jags are good Um, and they might get behind he did have a better passing game role this week Which is why like if I'm doing like a A trevor lorence consideration thing like a lorence kirk or if I'm doing like a zay jones one off I wouldn't mind pierce is a bring back there so between those guys I would say I probably still go lenny one Unless I get the read that he will be as popular as projections hint that he could be this week Because his role is very fragile right now and then I would go Pierce to followed by miles Is that I'm off? I might go I might go pierce It's close Um, which is is wild uh filly's implied team totes 27. Yeah for five and a half point favorites Houston's 18.25. Maybe I should go miles I'll go my I'd go I'd go lenny miles pierce Who do you think will be more popular between the two because I feel like it's probably miles based on what he did Like I know pierce it Miles and pierce Yeah Miles for sure by miles. No good um, so if I think that they are very similar So in that situation if there will be a big popularity gap, I'd rather take the guy who is lower roster, which is pierce because I mean he Didn't he have every rushing attempt for them last week or something like that every at least it was every non quarterback attempt I'm pretty sure um, so like here's Yeah, it looks like If boston scott plays i'll go pierce over sanders under the assumption that that sand is to be much more popular But I think I'd probably go lenny over both despite being very skeptical of his role right now I'm fine with that Okay, isaia mckenzie mispractice wednesday. Uh, he is in concussion protocol james and crowder broke his ankle I believe and he's out Dawson knocks mispractice wednesday gave the babe though Full participant We'll talk about the bill's offense in the trend section keenan allen mispractice wednesday with his hand string issue brandon staley called him day to day But probably lied. Uh, this is a downgrade for allen He was limited last wednesday and then left with a trainer on thursday We'll talk about the chargers in the bookmaker section or shot panning him as practice with a shoulder injury Which seems new so it's possible. It's nothing but Anywhere to sit. Are you going up to kenneth walker the third or ignoring this backfield entirely? I almost typed in the wrong computer. I won't draw attention to that anymore, but um, I don't know his salary. I haven't looked 53 They're probably gonna get I don't really want to target like teams against The saints too much. Yeah The saints are coming back from london That's probably not great for like their physical health, but I would probably not get there. I would be much more open to it if we didn't have single terry remandre brice Yeah Already viable. Yeah, I'd agree that I think with the other value options being there and having better roles And what do you probably have? Probably not a lot of past catching. I think I'd go with those guys over him as well Zay jones returned to a limited session on wednesday with his ankle injury It sounds like he was close to playing last week But couldn't quite get there if we assume that zay jones is back any interested him at $5,700 against the texans I Might have a soft role here this week where I don't go into the 5,000 range for receiver Um, nobody really jumps out to me enough And that is that's like the scary range where it makes all your lineups click But historically speaking those guys are Very hard to project well And they don't have Like mistake erasing upside I don't think I have to get there this week. I can play running backs it again around 6,000 Have a lot more predictability and then get back up into the 6,000 range at receiver I think that's going to be and it's not even a jones specifically it's just more of like a Soft like role that I might put in place this week I think there are very few exceptions where Outside of those i'm on board with you like I will have some rondale mooring game stacks. He's $2,200. I will get there for game stacks Yeah, um, I don't mind zay jones. I will have some zay jones lineups where I need the extra salary savings Curtis amo 58 if there's no dots in which I assume there will not be I think he works But outside of that probably nothing Like you could consider brandon iuk But like that offense is not voluminous from a passing perspective So I think for me it's probably those three exceptions and samuel jones and more Everything else probably not super enticing for me down there as well Marquis brown is practice wednesday with a foot injury. He played through that last week We'll talk about them in the bookmaker section speaking of them and speaking of that game Let's dive in to our bookmaker section for week number five It's one of two 48 and a half point totals That is in arizona for the cardinals and the eagles eagles are five and a half point favorites here That number has held steady throughout the week, but there was some money line movement towards the cardinals overnight wednesday What could go wrong? We've got faith in the eagles. I don't need to ask No Did you bet the cardinals again? I did um I bet the spread though. I don't want to trust cliff to win a game. I bet the spread not the money line Um, we have faith in the eagles. I'm not gonna ask you about them. Jalen hurts is the cash game quarterback on the slate aji brown Is awesome divante smith is awesome But how are you viewing arizona entering this one because they suck our maddening and our in play once again I think that's all pretty fair. Um They are very very difficult to predict. I'll talk about the predictability of Rushing quarterback upside, which is why kyler's still in the nicks for me despite all of the flaws that should be like staring me in the face kind of over like zack earth Um, I think I'll probably get because I'm gonna stack this game. So I'll play earth. I'll play um Yeah, I'll play brown assuming he's good to go obviously. I won't I will not play more. I'll Let me be the first to say I will not play mark. He's brown if he if you were to miss Good from a brave But yeah, like we're trying to find some uh, some bring backs Erts rondale brown all in the conversation Probably actually if I think about it that way put smile sanders more in play because I can balance out that salary a little bit More easily with like rondo being so low. Do you get to kyler? well we're gonna We're gonna talk about reasons to like kyler Based on his, you know rushing potential I think that the the tier list at quarterback goes jalen herds number one. He's just in his own by himself. Correct Josh jalen number two in his own tier And then like teddy bridge water And trevor laurence and kyler in tier three. I think herbert is in that Yeah, so I actually make that that third tier herbert and kyler and then I put laurence and teddy And a different range That's fair Oh, it's teddy and tutty because I've decided that if if laurence throws four touchdowns as weak He'll become the new tutty trev displacing trevor simian. He has not taken that mantle yet But if he has a four touchdown game, he'll be tutty trev. So it'd be teddy and tutty and that's kind of good symmetry It is. Uh, I don't know if that has How does that weigh in with the um Like dream narrative versus name narrative what what wins out Um The dream narrative i'm not buying in too. So I think the dream narrative narrative is dead That might be my lowest rank narrative. Unfortunately. Yeah, that was quick. It had a good run Yeah, no, I didn't it really didn't When you're dreaming tyler algeel did geared it. Yeah, he did in my he had a great great run there I think I will get to kyler. I think he's probably my quarterback three this week behind herds and herbert I'm a little bit lower on josh allen because There's some wind in that game. It's 15 miles per hour right now Um, they're probably not to do a whole lot like I think his floor is amazing but like Are you the odds What yeah, sorry. Well, that's what i'm saying is i'm not factoring that in though I think his floor and his median projection are amazing, but I don't care about those things and so The odds he torches me for not using him Oh not that high so I don't know. I think for me. I'd rather go herbert or derb murray All right, I'm not going to bring up the nick chubb thing Like specifically, but if josh allen gets you like 25 Are you happy with that at a salary because you were very happy with like Well, like I mean like it doesn't burn me You were saying that you like regretted using someone if they got you 19.7 fandal points No, that is not what I said. Yes, you did. Anyway, we're not going to re-litigate this We did get a question over on youtube about this game from one eye jack productions Is it an a j brown a bloke week? Let's talk about the eagles past catchers I think not only are both a j brown and davontae smith and play for game stacks But I think they are among the best standalone receiver plays on this entire slate. Yay or nay on that sentiment for you Oh, yeah, they're gonna be Like let's say i'm building line-ups. Um, and I don't play jalen hurts, which again i'm gonna play them in my main lineup, but Those are two guys. I wanted my line-ups. Yeah, in this in this situation Um I should know this 100 but does there's a does arizona always play with the roof closed or no? Uh, most of the time I believe Because like then we're getting effectively a dome or like minimal win concerns. Yeah, and uh, those two guys in controller environments seems like Good stuff Also, it's like davontae smith off of a dud game But he was playing whether there was like this big like twitter video of him like complaining about the rain Um, so like davontae smith revenge game against rain by playing indoors. I think that's a that's a narrative I'll buy into so I actually like both of them a lot I don't want to pick because I'm just gonna have a lot of both so i'm not gonna do that. Um, I will say that like marquise brown right by aj brown good name stack there Both those guys are very viable. There are a lot of high-end receivers. I like cup always But jefferson is there Digs not as much but tyreek is 84. I'm into him. We have waddle 77 as many plays good with that So there is competition for aj brown at the top and There is a decent amount of competition for smith 2 because olave is 69 And london is 62. So the competition for for davontae not as stiff, but I I like both of those guys a lot Uh rondale more outside of game stacks or no Outside of I don't think so Um solely for the fact that I don't know if I Need it sure if I if I need it maybe But I don't think I'm gonna be voting lineups that are quite that top heavy. Yeah, I think that's fair okay, uh, one of our few high total tight spread games on this slate is the Chargers at the browns chargers two and a half point favorites here total is 47 and a half the one problem here is the brown side of things is wonky They've got high salaries pretty much across the board and a run centric approach And they can probably run the ball pretty effectively against the chargers. So how do you view this game for stacking? I don't like it. Mm-hmm. Tell me why I Look, I understand the appeal of because for me the browns often centers on Nick chubb this week and just long term but 9400 for nick chubb a guy who has effectively one path of Putting up a huge game which is rushing And rushing touchdowns He did get three targets last week, but he has over 10 10 receiving yards in just one game this year Which coincided with a three touchdown game. So we got 30 points, but he has scored in the past two games And and though opening week he had 143 scrimmage yards. He didn't get to 20 points in any of those games That's a great like median sort of floor expectation But I think there's no real way for chubb To churn out like six catches in 70 yards like the christian mccaffrey can do So if he doesn't score which I get that we're talking about this game for You know being a high scoring environment and that nick chubb can definitely score multiple times in a game If he does not score, he's going to get you like 15 to 16 which is totally fine. Yeah at 9400. I don't think it's fine enough So i'm probably out That's where I'm with chubb. I think we should start here. Give me a thousand even for no game stacks What do you mean you're not going to use him in game stacks either Oh, no, I'll use him in game stacks because then i'm expecting him to score multiple times for this game to be high scoring and back and forth. Yeah, but like Usually historically we have a back at 9400 We're like, let's figure out ways to get this guy because the role has to be that good I don't view it that way No, because like 94 is like the mccaffrey engine is his role is not near that his role is not near seguan this year even And if seguan were on the slate I would use seguan over chubb But I think for game stacks like I will still get there I think I'm on board of you where it's like outside of game stacks It's really tough to get there because in a game stack You're basically saying you busts off some big runs and that's how you get upside like He's never had two into rushing yards in the game. I don't think that's like totally outlandish though based on his big playability to do that so Outside of game stacks. No, I don't think I need to get there because I think dalv is very He's a similar in a lot of ways and is much lower salary But I would use chubb in game stacks and I feel pretty okay about that I would also use david and joku in game stacks and as a standalone play at 57 You just practice again wednesday, but it sounds like it was similar to last week where he sat Um, so he's probably fine based on that. So I like in joku a lot I'm not going to get to a mari cooper. I don't think that could be a mistake But like there are so many good receiver plays around him that I don't want to use a guy on a receiver specifically on a team who's They don't want to throw if they can avoid it Oh, go ahead No, I mean I'm with you. I'm struggling with that because you want to make sure that you're not uh Only reacting to what happened like last week and we saw cooper have you know I would call like alpha wide receiver one usage on a per-route basis in recent weeks Well, but for the full season it's 25 Target share on this offense. That's not enough for me. Right. No, I'm with you like we've seen it in certain games like he Is like, yeah, let's start playing mari cooper again I don't want to react just to last week, but I think that I'm with you where I'm probably not going to get Very heavy on him, especially not outside of stacks Okay, so let's start with the charger side here I think keenan's gonna sit because I'm pretty sure staley is a liar and saying that he's day to day That doesn't seem that doesn't pass the smell test in three games with no keenan. We have Mike williams at a 22 target share Austin echoes a 20 percent, which is a lot Mike williams 44 of the deep work and he also has Sorry, I'm doing these on the fly at 29 red zone share echoes at 24 of the red zone targets and His role has been a lot better without keenan so He's over salaried and I don't want to use him But his role is objectively not that bad when keenan is sitting So I don't really want to use eckler I probably won't but I do think he is at least more viable with keenan sitting Won't you same same thing with nick job won't use him even in game stacks like that kind of question? I don't think so like I just I don't know his Even when you include last week when he had seven out of 11 red zone chances His red zone share this year is 31 percent You could counter by saying that's the same as nick chubbs. However, I don't I reject your your facts Yeah, I was gonna say what's what's uh chubb's exact same. Yeah So like In theory, I should like eckler more than nick chub because No, because eckler's yardage upside is Doggy do right now and chubbs is not yes, but I'm saying in theory based on purely usage Because eckler has four 10 eight seven targets He's got at least seven targets his packs three games. He has at least 48 receiving yards and all three of those those games but Nick chubb and dara kenry because they're basically the same I have to view them the same effectively these guys Rush over expectation on like any other backs that we get like jonathan taylor's in that conversation, but They're the only two run only Running backs that I would ever consider eckler Does have their receiving but like you said the breakaway yardage really isn't there and Coming off of a three touchdown game that was like an over correction for not having scored in the first three games Yeah, but it's not like his red zone role is great last year. It's not as good this year I think i'm probably just going to miss out and if he puts up You know three touchdowns again, then it is what it is, but I don't really see it in the usage to go there Yeah, I think that that's where i'm at as well. Okay, so Looking at the the looking at mike williams specifically i'm guessing I want to be there pretty heavily I will say the browns So like a big thing with mike is that he's huge the browns cornerbacks are sneaky kind of long Like they're not short denzel ward is not huge, but like greg newson's got some like to him. Um, they're weirdly like Bigger than you think they are because they're fast and so like I went in thinking Oh, they're probably just you know, they're they're not as big, but they're actually they're kind of big So I like big mike a lot at 74 I think I might not be as high on him this week as I was last week due to This being a bit of a tougher situation playing outdoors and stuff like that where you add on mike williams at 74 to dollars Oh, yeah, it's like I can sit here and say that I don't like him. Um I don't know if I like him as much as again I'm trying to comment things from uh I can I'm trying not to say that I like everyone so that I just get shares of everyone, but We do have christian kirk. We have mike evans, uh, mike williams debo samuel CD lamb dk mack catholic. That's a pretty good ranger receiver I think that debo is pretty easily the number one there for me And so if I'm playing mike williams and debo, I'm effectively sort of saying that I'm either building identical line of constructions where I'm just able to rotate through these guys or I gotta like pick and choose no, I think you'll be able to play both this week based on how often we'll be in this range I think Yeah, yeah, but I'm saying like if I'm building If I'm building that same line of construction, then yeah, it makes sense. I'm ahead. I guess. Yeah. Yeah, at least but How are you ranking like do you like debo this week? I assume Yeah, um, I just don't like that game as much so And that does matter for me So if I had to guess even though I like debo more, I'll probably wind up with a bit more mike williams Just due to games having more mini stacks of this game I could see that So like I like debo more, but I think I I want to get debos debos the better standalone play debos the better cash gameplay But like I think most likely scenarios I want to having more mike williams than I had debo buy a little bit not by a huge amount by any means Big mike williams or big mike evans this week Probably mike williams for the same reason Like evans is a good play, but like I just I don't feel as good about That game shooting out. So I I think it's just because I'm higher on this game. That's the main Driver for me there Josh palmer did scale back a bit this past week in terms of the number of routes he ran relative to Deandre Carter He finished with just one target. So I had some josh palmer last week. I probably will not be going back there For this week. I need you're all there for you or no I mean, I like this game enough to stack it, but I don't know if he's a pure standalone titan that i'm targeting like Yeah, maybe I like a joku more in this game. So Yeah Let's go now to the uh, the falcons at the buccaneers buccaneers nine point favorites total is 48 and a half tied for the highest in the slate And both sides have intriguing names. We got drake london on the falcons and Then we got the the buccaneers guys. So what's your read on this game and which pieces are you going at? I would be lying if I didn't say that I I liked tom brady a bit um I I know he's not in like the top five quarterbacks. I listed but if you want narratives like tom brady is your guy tinder tom like Angry tom. No, no, that's tinder tom. We've tabloid tom. Maybe. Um Like he's he's one of the few pocket pastors who really has like 400 yard four touchdown like predictable upside. Um I don't I don't hate that but I think For this game having a 48 and a half point total it's Not as appealing as other games could be because of the spread um, but I think that I'm very very open to the idea of a drake london mike evans mini stack in my main lineup To get exposure to this game without playing anyone who I don't think has like those are the There's the two wider sewer ones in a game with the a 48 and a half point total wider sewer ones correlate pretty well together If mike williams the rfa mike evans does, you know some things drake should probably have Some juice unless the falcons just drop back like four times, but I want to like this game more i'm having a really hard time with Leonard for net specifically this week Yeah, so I think that we can both agree that we like london and evans, but Let's dig a little bit deeper into For net and the rest of the box Yes, let's talk about for net because as you alluded to His role is not as good as it once was we've loved lenny for a very long time on this show But last week 59 snap rates rachad white was at 39 percent That was not just scriptulated because I think rachad white got a lot of run on their third series of the game And they said before they wanted to scale back lenny get rachad white more involved Lenny did still have seven targets and I love that so that's that's encouraging But Six rushes you gotta run gotta run some kind of play somehow that three runs from negative three yards Good stuff, man So we love lenny we respect lenny we give him thanks for What he has done for us in the past It's I'm having a hard time getting super enthused if he is going to be as as Heavily rostered as the projections imply he could be I think he's a pretty easy jump off guy And I don't typically feel the need to deviate that much of running back But I think in the spot I would because like I can be different without being dumb and I have legitimate reasons to question Whether for net's role is good as good as that roster it would imply Yes, so his first half snap rates this year have been 94 96 86 percent and then down to 71 percent Still not bad so any what is that is is okay, but it's it it's a decrease, but it's not Like oh, they're just this is rachad whites backfield now. Like that's not quite what it is What what the the the real story here is like Tampa Bay just Decided we're not gonna run the ball. We're gonna throw it a million times Which is still good for four net seven targets is worth about 14 carries um his Path to a ceiling is still there Because this team should move the ball. I don't want to be out on four net but If this were a week if this were week four And we didn't know that like the role was going to change and we had his role entering week three I'd say four net Like lock button level almost in this match up Now it's like I don't want I just don't want to throw out like game stacks only Constantly, but yeah, I think he's game stacks only this week I think it's you kind of ask yourself What are the odds that his role reverts back to what it was before week four? And if if you think that's a high number then cool, he's an amazing play I don't think that's a high number though based on what they said about rachad whites and based Honestly how rachad whites looked he's looked good. It's like I get it. Um, so If I think the odds that his role reverts back Is 20% and then ask myself But what are the odds that if he had his previous role he'd be an amazing play Then it'd be, you know, probably 50% or 80% So then it gets down to like 15% and that's probably going to be below what the field is On four net this week and again based on initial rostrate Or based on projections. I'm guessing it'll be pretty popular this week Yeah, the projections love them. Um You know, I look at basically consensus projections and then It's it's a lot easier to pull up consensus projections get a feel for how everyone Tends the view of things and then figure out how you want to do things differently rather than I mean if you build from scratch, that's fine. But I think that uh, you can miss a lot of A lot of things and we're we're playing against Other competitors and in daily fantasy. So it's important to know like what consensus says. Yeah I will say the looking at Initial rostrate projections Austin Neckler is lower than I thought he'd be So maybe we don't have to worry as much about that, but I think that'll change by Sunday Nick chubb is also on seven percent. So You know, I'll be above that, which is fine What could go wrong? Let's dive into the trends discussion here for week number five brandy You're talking about mobile quarterbacks and the role they play which is key for this week because We're considering teddy bridge water who physically isn't capable of running like a because he kind of runs like a baby horse Um, we got trevor lorence who refuses to run despite being crazy athletic We got those guys being somewhat in play. Maybe tom brady stuff like that So you're looking into the appeal of russian quarterbacks and what they do for upside in dms Yeah, and I think it's actually I was going to talk about this last week um But I think it might be even more pertinent this week because we have three russian quarterbacks Which is like just enough where you can't say that no one has upside But it's not so many where it's like five or six where you're like I gotta play one of these guys if because someone's gonna erupt like we don't have lemar we don't have my homes so I think it's a pretty interesting week um To look at things from this perspective So I dug back in to results and projections since 2016 if i'm looking at main slate quarterbacks with at least a 15 point fandal projection according to number fires model, of course and seeing how often they get to three x value so three times value so three um, for example, uh, 27 points at 9 000 would be three x value 24 at 8 000 22 and a half at 7500. I think those are all numbers we'd say like, okay, yeah Someone at 75 coming 22 and a half. I'm good with that. It's basically a 75th percentile outcome for quarterbacks historically This is going to help show big game rates at value but also account for You know the the sheer amount of lower salary quarterbacks by comparison because we always have 20 low salary quarterbacks and like four studs basically if we want to just make it simple so overall The in the overall sample the hit rate here is 25 percent, which is what you'd expect given that i'm looking at Effectively a 75th percentile outcome Among the rushing quarterback sample, which i defined as having at least four projected rushing fandal points Which again, we can account for and project partial touchdowns Which can really bump up a rushing projection. It's not just 40 yards rushing by any means they make up 19 percent of the sample But have a 30 30 percent big game hit rate So that's over the 25 mark for the overall sample the pocket passers which makes up 81 percent of the sample Just a 24 hit rate 23.8 percent So a little bit below that 25 mark that you would expect if you just picked one at random effectively Again, this accounts for value And that's still 30 versus 24 just for guys who have rushing ability I should say it accounts for salary um That might sound like a small gap like oh, I could save x amount And it's only a six percentage point difference But if you go through and look at a nine or an eight player lineup and you're trying to maximize The odds that they all go off that is pretty massive If we pair the sample for just the better projected passers So a 75th percentile projection or about 2.5 x leading into the games here are those numbers The overall sample 28 hit rate So it's better than just the 25 percent if you look at all quarterbacks The russian qb sample who's projected well as a 31 hit rate the non russian quarterback sample who's projected well 27 So that's that kind of narrows the gap. So if you look at the best projected pocket passers They still have a pretty good hit rate still trail the russian quarterbacks Here's where things get a little bit more obvious whenever you're looking at sheer ceilings Which we care about a lot in this podcast 30 plus vandal points Overall sample gets there seven percent of time all pocket passers 5.6 percent the top projected pocket passers 8.4 percent the russian qb's 13.3 percent So that's almost double the overall sample if you look at just the russian guys Five percentage points is pretty massive when you're looking again like at that nine player team And you and you like multiply the product of the odds of these guys hitting So it's not only that russian quarterbacks have a big ceiling, but they're I would say substantially more predictable and have that higher upside overall so You know, we didn't really see a ton of huge games last week from the pocket passers But in early weeks we had like Tua and like jared golf and has been like popping off which i know you love to hear Are you at all phased by that and say like hey, I can I can match The jalen hurts upside and save a thousand plus in salary Or are you still Trying to err on the side of like josh allen and kyler murray. I think we we both agree hurts are number one Yeah, we're still putting those guys at their salaries above The pocket passers so to answer your broad question. Yes, I am putting the russian quarterbacks above because It's you talked about predictable upside earlier on It's pretty easy to predict a russian quarterback as upside Whereas for a pocket passer, you need a lot of things to break your way So that's why in general I prefer still skew towards running quarterbacks. Even though we've seen guys do stuff like that, which is why Maybe I should be a tiny bit lower on herbert, especially with his rib injury Maybe I should downgrade him a bit relative to kyler specifically. He's already well below hurts But like maybe I should go with kyler over herbert in that regard the one caveat that I have I know we're talking about the bills again later on but I'm not sure josh allen will be a running quarterback this week because they want him to be Healthy all year. They're 14 point favorites last time. They were a big favorite this year He ran one time for 10 yards now he threw for for touchdowns in that game and still lit it up because he's very good but like I'm not sure he'll be a running quarterback this week and That's why I'm a bit lower on him So to me it's hurts one. I'm gonna go murray two followed by herbert three But so yeah, kind of I'm buying into what you're saying. I guess is what I'm saying here. It'll look round about way Yeah, like this week it kind of comes down to if we projected more rushing from allen Um, it would be really really interesting I think this just cements why gillian hurts is the play regardless of self for sure of anything But it also was a roundabout way for me to talk myself into chiller murray again. Oh, buddy. What you go wrong there? Only everything correct. So let's talk some mid-range running backs and That's my first trend here. Not a week. We need to spend up at tight end So it might not be necessary to spend down at running back But there are a lot of guys there with good workloads, especially recently So I want to look specifically at the range of guys this hour since $7500 to $6,000 So no mild sanders just above this, but there are a lot of relevant guys in this range The two big ones are brace hall and devon single terry Hall took over as the jets lead back last week That was the second game with more than half the snaps and in both those games Or across those two games hall is a 29.5 adjust to opportunities per game That leads the slate each guy's most relevant sample two game samples. So it's a small sample But it's a big number single terry ranks second in that category of 26 That's across his two games with a 60 snap rate or higher 93.5 yards from scrimmage across those two games Single terry still has just 25.9 of the red zone chances in that time. So his role is flawed Hall is at 85 yards to scrimmage per game. So Not the guy's perfect But both those guys grayed out really well relative to salary Then we got some guys in the 7000 range depending on some guys who could have good roles depending on injuries clue herbert He's at 135 yards per game In the two games without david montgomery or where montgomery left early He also has 10 out of 15 red zone chances in those games My numbers like the vikings a lot in that game So the the bearish could trail but that would also help our interest in dalvin cook Dal has been banged up throughout this year, but he still has 86 or more yards and three out of four games He had 30 adjust opportunities back in week one Teams love to run on the bears right now salary for dalvin's $7300. I like that a lot Damian pierce is at 22.3 adjust opportunities per game 105.7 yards per game in his three games as the lead back Also has 57 of the team's red zone chances There's seven point dogs against the jaguars. I would say the six targets last week Does more to influence me up on pierce than anything else he has done so far this year Finally, I do want to talk about ramon or stevensson salary is $6,000 in the three games without time on gummary Uh, stevensson has 11.7 carries and four targets per game facing the lions in a game with a pretty high total So I don't think stevensson is totally off the map. The problem is we likely can't use all these guys So How are you looking at the mid-range backs and are there any of them you're looking to cross off right now All right, what's your final list here for guys you're asking me about because it's a lot to keep in anybody between 75 and 6,000 I mean, yeah, you don't need to cross off So talking about okay ramon drae okay Damian pierce Khalil harbert assuming there's no montee dalvin single tutty and breeze Are you crossing off any of those guys? Herbert's the closest to being a cross off Yeah Then pierce Yeah But everyone else I like So would you say that dalvin ramon drae? Double tutty we're opening it as we go along and breeze are all core plays for you um Because I put I put stevensson as like a fringe core Like a 35 type guy for me Yeah, he's not in my core the other three guys spoiler learned of my loves this week. Okay What would you put for like an expected exposure rate for stevensson because I I'll put a 35 for me Probably about 30. Okay, cool It's will be on him pretty comfortably I'd assume Yeah It's a good situation with the path to upside through the receiving At a salary that is reasonable. I don't want to I don't want to do this because I don't You know spoiler alert. I don't Know off the top of my head like what the patriots backfield splits look like I can look it up, but like Well, I just I want to avoid it. I don't even want to think about it. Yeah Like what's his his literal role compared to like Austin Ecklers So in each guy's most relevant sample, which is path three for stevensson and full season for Eckler 19.7 adjust opportunities for stevensson versus 25.8 for Eckler So that's actually a decent gap, but remandre 80.3 yards per games and uh, Eckler 82 And red zone role does favor Eckler, but it was very similar before this past week. So, okay He's uh scaled down version of Eckler. But like yeah, so like not a $3,000 gap necessarily Okay So that's where I'm at with them But I think that the overall takeaway is we really like these mid-range backs We like the workload and we'll be high on them this week So let's talk now about Buffalo because they are 14 point favorites, which means they have a Monstrous implied total of 30.25. I believe Against the Steelers Steelers are a defense. We can target. There's no tj watt make if it's patrick has banged up so What do we do with the bills as big favorites? So what I wanted to ask and and figure out so this is a blend. We can talk like market shares and stuff this is more like theoretical of what we get what we tend to see from big favorites, but also Buffalo's tendencies when when Leading which is never safe to assume. It is the NFL. I did bet the Steelers money line at plus 640. So It was value 18.5 for me versus 13.5 implied I can't pass that up, right? Yeah, I mean that's uh Yeah Go ahead. Sorry All right, so the bills are big favorites as we already laid out But I want to look at how that impacts Josh Allen Stefan digs the rest of the bills This year when leading by any amount Buffalo has a 61 pass rate the league best in that split is 64 percent and if I average 52 percent Their pass rate over expectation Plus 12 percentage points in that split, which is second best When up by seven or more Buffalo is at a 59 percent pass rate, which is 11 points over expectation for them And on plays in that split They are still likely to throw the ball when they are ahead. I'm just going to assume that they're playing from ahead If I'm if I'm wrong the game's close and that's better If not, this is kind of still set up pretty well For the bills and helps me trust Josh Allen quite a bit Overall this season Regardless of game environment the bills are a plus 12.6 percentage points in terms of pass rate over expectation That is best in the nfl for context last season. They were just a plus point or Plus 4.0 So from basically 4 percentage points over expectation to 12.6 percent percentage points over expectation That's a pretty sizable shift from what we've seen From this team that's also kind of taken a little bit of a toll on our on my guy Not your guy devon singletary. He hasn't been getting as much usage as he has in the past, but I also have a 10 game sample where josh Allen's a double digit favorite I think people like to hear this kind of stuff just to see what and I like it too Most these came from the 2021 season But and this again when they threw a little bit less heavily when leading and those he averaged 20.1 vandal points He had at least 20 vandal points in seven of 10 games Just one with more than 24 and none with over 30 Two of the 10 games were 300-yard passing games, but that's not So he basically threw for touchdowns was like had a high floor didn't really break open the ceiling For quarterbacks overall if you look at them in terms of whether they were favored by between 10 and 17 They average 21.3 vandal points if they're rushing quarterbacks And 19 and a half if they're Like just overall rushing or not projected for that week 30 chance of the 300-yard passing game. So Allen underperformed that by a tick, but it was only 10 game sample Um, 31 chance of three passing touchdowns compared to 23 and 20 percent So we actually do see good production in terms of predictability It's just more a question of like sheer 35 40 point upside probably not there if this game is not closed So I have no questions about the floor. Sorry to use that word gym But I think it's fair to question if he's going to go for 35 this week One other thing that jumped out to me here is that being a heavy favorite for receivers isn't necessarily bad Which I think makes sense once I think about it differently. I would I would typically think passing volume is too low I'm playing from head, but it's a lot of passing efficiency to gain that lead and since 2016 Projected wide receiver ones on teams that were favored by 12 to 16 points Average 14 and a half fandal points 58 percent of that sample outperformed their pregame expectation 25 percent of them got to 100 plus yards The full sample rates there 41 and 18 percent for context. That's a pretty sizable shift If we grow that sample to 10 to 17 point favorites The number is fairly similar. Um, just if I open up that sample So there's still historically some like yardage upside for Quarterbacks and receivers at a certain point it drops off for quarterbacks because they tend to win these games by a lot But if you look at like a Stefan digs if this if the bills go out and dominate It's going to flow through Stefan digs and it's just going to make his targets more efficient If they're moving the ball it is as expected to hit that 30.25 point implied team total So I thought digs was like a cross-off play because there wasn't going to be enough volume But that's not really been the case. So, you know, we can talk about their individual splits and market shares, but I think the overall trends here Not that damning for wide receivers, which I think is really interesting. It also kind of applies to like wider super 2 and 3s So like davis digs Still both in play despite their status as big favorites. Uh, what are your thoughts here? Yeah, so I think it comes down to expectations um If if we are going to make these guys like uber chalk because of the super high implied total Then I think you have reasons to deviate because there are reasons to question their ceiling as you alluded to If they're not going to be popular Then I feel pretty inclined to check out Gabe the babes specifically and like so I went to some projected roster rates I control left davis because I don't know if he was Gabe or Gabriel And kory davis popped up first kory davis is currently projected at a higher roster rate than gave davis so I don't care what the spread is. I'm going to use gave davis at $6,000 even with the wind being high Again, that comes down to expectations if people are expecting a big game and the wind is high I'm okay backing off People are not there then it's not going to bother me as much because there's still a path to a big game And that's not being accounted for in the in the uh the roster rate projections so I think Gabe is going to be potentially a cash gameplay. I don't really want to do that because his role has been tough but like with no Crowder likely no cumero potentially no mackenzie. I think that's enough to be high on him single terry I don't I don't really care. I think that's just with uh, I think his role is fine. So I'm there regardless So I would say davis and single terry are both from yeses allen if I use four quarterbacks would probably be the fourth But I might stick with three this week potentially So it depends on how how much without then I want to go. Um So I'm broadly open to them, but I think Allen specifically I might not get two digs is fine. Um, I might not get there just because it's a high story But we think he yeah, we were like we can say he's fine But he might be better than fine and it might be one of those spots where like Sentiments too low because they're too big of favorites, but that So based on through like a big game from digs based on like popularity People tend to over roster teams that are heavily favored relative to often they pop up in like Perfect line search like a proxy for upside So I'm okay being a bit lower still, but it's nice to know that like we don't have to worry Like if they're not going to be popular then that's not a huge concern I think that's the takeaway I would have Let's go now to my second trend talk about the dolphins to a tongue of a loa ruled out for this week Due to a concussion. Hopefully it gets better here soon But usually a team with a back of quarterback is going to be a cross offer dfs, but Teddy bridgewater is Probably the best back of quarterback in football Bridgewater played quite a bit for the Broncos last year and in that time 0.18 passing that expected points per drop back and that was even with key receivers missing big time That's well above average. So teddy played well even with A lot of time without jerry judy He played well Now he's on the dolphins and has two of the best deep threats on the planet Bridgewater was a negative 0.02 passing that expected points per drop back and relief on thursday But no practice there. His eight out for the year is 8.9 That's actually a smidge higher than two as at 8.6 small sample or there So that will probably come down But I think it's important to know that he's willing to go downfield similar to to a pre injury Across four games the dolphins offense as a whole is at 0.35 adjusted passing that expected points per drop back It's a very good number. It will come down as the sample expands, but I've got them projected at 0.20 so Bumping down from the dolphins this year bumping down from expectations If I let my model run based on this year and based on priors, they would have been about 0.22 So downgrade from 2a to 0.20 But still pretty good even with that number being lowered expecting regression expecting a downgrade from 2a tongue of aloha I still got the dolphins ranked second on the main slate in projected offensive efficiency trailing just the bucks The jets right 25th by that number across the full week. So they're not fully dust They might be able to score some points here and keep this game close I logged the over on my action art profile when it got to 43 and a half over at vandal Was hoping to get to 43 and a half here in north island. It did not i'm pretty sad about that But I think this game could have some back and forth appeal So question for you is am I getting too high on an offense with a back of quarterback or Is this enthusiasm justified? I think it's justified based on expectations because the question is really can we play terry kill? Yes That's really the main one, but can we play jm model? Yes is teddy himself and play Yes he is um If you play teddy plus tyreek, they're basically you could roster each of them for 74 If you think about it that way I think that Makes it a lot more appealing to me. Just if I twist that around mentally I still don't like the idea of Plugging in a quarterback with the salary of 6400. It just feels like it's a waste of a lineup, but Yeah, I mean if you adjust for opponent Uh, you know teddy looks good The a dots up like you mentioned Part of that was script related but The jets are also dead last in yards per target allowed Per attempt. They've been fairly successful at defending those plays, but yeah You know both of those numbers are not super stable just because it's based on early season schedule But they have not really limited downfield passing They've just had like success at it not converting So I think that there's a lot of upside in this stacks though, but I mean it's still and it's also a pretty narrow Set of considerations Which is helpful for value stacks because if if this were teddy plus three or four pass catchers and maybe a running back Like that's too much, but I think that given the context of this offense It's a It's a pretty easy one to sell me on Yeah, and I don't think they'll be able to run here because the jets defensive line is pretty good They can't run against anyone so that that doesn't really matter But like I think the the jets defensive line is pretty good So I don't think they can run probably going to throw quite a bit. They'll probably be decently efficient when passing I like the jets Corner is long term, but you know, I mean like you said they haven't you know been super limiting so far this year So this is not an lol jets thing It's a I think the dolphin's offensive infrastructure is pretty good Kind of thing and that does encourage me for terry kill for jill and waddle Maybe I get to teddy. I think he's probably qb5 for me behind allen If allen if the weather impacts allen Maybe I can get to teddy is like quarterback four if I use four quarterbacks, but you know I might not get there, but I feel good about the pieces here specifically like a waddle with breeze hall mini game stacker a terry kill with breeze hall mini game stack there the jets are Allowing a catch rate over expectation of plus eight points That is third worst and the nfl they've had some really bad communication issues on defense. They probably had some like I guess Catch rate of expectation would account for guys being super wide open too, but anyway, yeah, they've they've had some issues I again, I think long term their corners will be pretty good. I like sauce gardener, but for right now Okay being on the dolphins, so let's see how that goes Weather for this week not nearly as bad as last week wind speeds are at 12 miles per hour in jacksonville for the Jags and the texans would be a slight downgrade to passing offenses there if that were to stick Same thing in tampa for the bucks and the falcons 12 miles per hour there Keep an eye on that one And then the highest wind speeds are in buffalo for the bills and the stealers 15 miles per hour That would downgrade passing offenses if that were to stick it wouldn't kill me with the bills But again, it would be a slight downgrade Um, but it wouldn't worry me with the game. So let's go now to our positional plays for week number five Brandon, who are you targeting a quarterback on fadwell for the main slate? Jalen hurts Don't care that he's going to be popular that historically has not mattered at quarterback And yes, if he busts completely at chalk, that's a helpful thing for those who don't play him But that's it's the most predictable position that we have in fantasy football and the researchers have done on it And in trying to pivot away from chalk quarterback. It's really not worth it. So might as well just Not have to worry about every time Jalen hurts makes a big play Um, but he's the biggest under performer and expected passing touchdown rate since 2019 based on his epa per dropback He has the same epa per drop back according to next gen stats is jerry gough Gough said 11 touchdowns passing Hertz isn't for Uh, like I know that Hertz has run in like he's rushed for touchdowns and that's part of it but like It's not this isn't just that he's Rushing really well and a lot. He's been very efficient. And so like That he has like he legitimately has two paths to being awesome and that's great I'm 11.8 carries per game 53 yards per game. He's 24th in the nfl and yards per game rushing not like That's kind of nuts. Um My second love comes with a little bit of a caveat where I would The longer I sit here and think about this I think Kyler Murray is my number two quarterback But I think that teddy bridge water is firmly in the conversation For a quarterback this week, especially if you think that the cardinals just Screw up that game and make it ugly and terrible Which they've been known to do with a lot of hot like high profile games, but There are minimal rushing quarterbacks on the slate You point out you make a good point where alan probably doesn't need to rush a lot Probably won't rush a ton Justin herbert probably also with his rib not going to run as much so If you say Hertz is just fine kyler doesn't go nuts and the the game script in baffle Then the buffalo game doesn't really allow alan to go nuts either Teddy's very much in play. Um, he has legitimate upside at his salary at 6400 Checks the boxes of having great projections as a pocket passer He can be carried by his two primary pass catchers and as I mentioned before like If you play tyreek in bridge water, you're effectively getting both of them at 7400 and That's something that is a lot easier to sell yourself on rather than You know tyreek salaries too high tied to a backup quarterback Just think about it a different way and you'll probably like it a little bit more I think the way I don't think adjust this is Shift my thinking of teddy relative to herbert specifically given that herbert's probably not going to run with his rib injury So maybe I need a bump up teddy. My two loves arjeone hurts are and kyler murray hurts I think you just for a cash game. He's the first guy you put in over the mid-range running backs I would put hurts in first and then go from there He Is running the ball a lot. I think he has double digit rush attempts in all but one game I think he had nine in the one exception to that Like he said potentially do for some some passing touchdown regression He has easy stacking candidates and devontae smith and a j brown I can't overthink that with kyler. Yeah, it's been ugly But he ran nine times excluding neil downs this past week He had 20 plus fan dual points in all but one game And the one game he did not get there. He still had 314 yards passing in that one They're gonna have to open things up eventually because like It's not working what they're doing and I you'd hope they realize that they haven't done that yet So like I don't know maybe they won't but the hope is a rational coaching Yeah, I can't do that cliff. That was wrong. You're right fair point. Uh, but ronda moors back They're getting healthier a little bit on the offensive side of the ball Um marquis brown did set out practice wednesday, but he did that last week too. I believe and wound up being okay so I'll go hurts won kyler two and figure it out from there Maybe I'll move teddy up to three or over herbert, but I think those are kind of the top four guys for me for right now Running back what you got there Dalvin cook Salaries too low at 7300 69 snap rate 50 route rate on the year 55 reds and rushing share Just minimal scoring in terms of touchdowns across four games My model has him at 14.6 expected fan dual points per game Which isn't like phenomenal, but the salary doesn't really reflect like peak dalvin cook either Um, hasn't been getting 70 plus percent snap rates, but again doesn't really need it at the salary Breeze hall is my second love 66. I guess I'm just sort of all in on the mid-range running back this week as we talked about I do like nick chubb. I want to make that known I'm not out on derrick henry But I think fit mid-range is very appealing for running back this week Uh, breeze hall dominated routes last week 58 over michael carter at 32 percent Had a snap rate jump from 51 percent to 67 percent 17 of 26 running back carries six of nine running back targets, which is very nice to see And then my third love is devon singletary I like them last week. I know we had a pretty decent amount of conversation around them a week ago But his role actually improved from last week without a lot of results Now the salaries actually down a little bit He's a huge home favorite, which is a little misleading historically for running backs You don't want just it to be a complete blowout, but We are talking about getting You know a realistic Chance of the touchdown because he's not he doesn't come off the field necessarily in the red zone It's just that he's not the focal point And this is the highest implied team total of the week There's some yardage here at least and we're looking at just getting a primary back at 6000 He is he is averaging so he is like a bad market share in the red zone But he's still averaging two and a half red zone chances per game That's Very workable and in an offensive environment where they should be in the red zone a few times this week Yeah, and his number is three and a half per game in the two games where he's had like this this role So that's encouraging He had six red zone chances in week number three six out of 17, which is 35 percent So he has a path to a good red zone role Um, I agree the sentiment though about the spread that is not as encouraging for backs Is that typically would be especially for a guy who is somewhat dependent on passing game work? So if he winds up being super chalky, there is a path to deviate, which is why I have Ramondra Stevenson is one of my loves I think he's less likely to be super popular Stevenson not as good of a play a single tarry single tarry is the better play I want to make that very clear between the two for a cash game. I go single theory But I think there are some merit to Stevenson here 11.7 carries and four targets per game across three of the time on gummary Should be a good match against the lions. Stevenson has 89 plus yards and scrimmage in two consecutive games I've seen that some buzz for damian harris on twitter this week, but he's higher salaried Don't like his role as much doesn't play as many snaps Stevenson's better. I think so i'll go Stevenson is one of my loves other two were overlapping with yours daven cook and breeze hall Not much more needs to be said there you know hall even Without the snap uh increased last week He has 26 plus a just opportunities in three out of four games this year I mentioned before that single tarry has the second best number on the slate of 26 breeze hall has hit that number in three out of four games by having a low snap rate in two of those games 44 red zone share last week for breeze hall 17 carries six targets I think he's amazing. So I feel like those are the three guys I go with in cash or daven hall and stevenson most likely For this week wide receiver. What you looking at there? I have debauched ammo number one here for me. Um, it's not that I love him So much more than the other guys that we talked about this is like a loaded range Um, obviously we love a g brown, but I think I can really build around like balanced receivers this week Devo is going to be part of that. He did score on monday night football last week because he was Uh scored after the slavist post that we didn't see that salary jump. I know I talked about You know not chasing touchdowns, but this is a bit different. Um This carolina is seeing the second highest target per out rate to receivers this season So it could be like sort of a schematic thing at this point if that's if that's still kind of the case Just the 1.9 yard eight one downfield target on monday, but seven targets, which was 28 and two carries Just he's featured in this offense and I feel good about that. Even I even though I don't love the game The salary here. I think is too low He should probably be closer to 8 000 I also love chris alavet 6900. I think he stacks well with a You know the dk medcaf tyler locket in a dome Best air yards value in my model by a pretty big mile and I do regress that out until target shares reach or target numbers reach 50 so That's not just based on like what he's done with his a dot so Partially, but you know it is regressed a little bit just go back even still a seventh and target share Since week two second in air yard share behind my guy cd lamb and that sample Seattle's pretty decent against receivers, but I don't really care. Um, and my third love is drake london 6200 I feel like he's gonna stay around 6200 6200 new coat season. Yeah. Yeah Or like a brandon cooks kind of thing like no, no drake london actually has a path to a good game Well, sorry a great game brandon cook is a path to a good game. He does not have a path to a great game Just two catches on for 17 yards last week, but Seven targets. So if we look at just the production, we're gonna miss a lot here 39 target share on those seven targets catch rate over expectation of minus 30 95 route rates since week two 40 target share Which is a receiver best for downfield targets per game even in a low volume offense I think the downside is firmly baked into the salary And I really like I said, I'll I'll get a little bit of shares of guys in the 5000 ranger receiver But not many and I don't have to dig there in my main lineup. Yeah, I didn't have to either when I was doing stuff For this week either I did for the thursday through monday slate. Again. I just love that slates and keep on bringing it up Um, I had zay jones in there temporarily. I think I pivoted off of that But for the main slate, I don't think you need to do it My first love of receiver is tarry kill because I think this game is fun for stacking total went up about two points overnight last night That's a good thing means other people are on this game Hill has 12 plus targets and three out of four games this year The one game he did not was the one where they ran like 39 plays Teddy was looking for tarry killed down the field on thursday Hill is at two deep targets per game. So two deep targets, but then a lot of like shorter targets, which I'll happily take Similar to the lava discussion where it's a it's a blend of downfield and shorter stuff I do like justin jefferson marquise brown aj brown in this range, but I should be here more often than usual, which is encouraging to me Oh, they're gonna say something like it. It's so loaded at receiver that Like it's it's hard to narrow these guys down. Yeah, it'll be based on game stacks, which is fine Uh, speaking of that divante smith is my second love. Uh, game. I'll be stacking plenty It was a down week last week, but I think it was pretty predictable with all the rain He still has 22 of the team's overall targets so far this year with 35 of the deep work He has a $6,600 salary. I'm hoping people jump off here after a down game I think they'll still be there because of the gaming environment, but that's fine I don't think it'll be as popular as he should be my third love is gave the babe gave davis There's no crowded this week potentially no mckenzie No kumar almost likely and as you showed receivers can still have really good games as big favorites Gabe importantly Got in a full practice wednesday. We were talking on monday on the recap show What would you need to see to be in on gave davis and I said a full practice by friday But buddy done checked that box on wednesday. So gave davis Lights up. I think we'll get an eruption from him very soon. What do you have a tight end? Kind of hate tight end aside from tether higby I'm gonna start with higby here even though my next love is higher salary higby's played at 93 of the snaps in every game this this year has at least nine targets in three of four games Second at the position in target market share at 26 behind just mark andrew's Dallas is 24th and adjusted fantasy points per target allowed to tight ends if you The I think they rate out pretty well like overall, but if you look at who they've actually faced It's not anything to worry about. So I think higby The first place I look in a cash game for tight end This has less to do with higby and probably more to do with the position overall, but I'm probably locking him into the cash games After jamming Hertz and just going from there. Okay. My second love. Like I said is at a higher salary It's pat fryer mooth Uh, the jets have not a lot of tight end to touchdown yet this season But aren't getting these play in the stealers. They're 14 point dogs Or the uh, yeah the um, yeah, uh fryer mooth was uh Kenny picket's most targeted receiver In the second half Of that that week four game fryer mooth 24 target share for the season fourth best Among the at the position behind mark andrew's higby and kelsie. So yeah my bad there, but uh That's because I was swapping over computers a lot and they're gonna throw a lot So I think that is encouraging 85 yards this past week against the jets. Um He had 75 against the bangles. So there's been some yard of juice there. Maybe Kenny picket is More viable so I can get that for sure being on fryer mooth. I like david and joku in that range 57 a lot I like higby more. So higby is uh, is my other love. So I we're in agreement on higby I think he's the cash gameplay. I like in joku for tournaments 19 percent target share overall this year He has 32 of the red zone targets and he's shown yardage upside despite not getting a lot of downfield targets. So This game is really fun. Uh, the if you remember last year, they had that shootout game in los angeles where both sides went nuts And joku I think had a long touchdown there What else could he need, you know, that's obviously the only logic we have for playing david and joku So I like in joku 57 higby more 55 Uh from a cash game perspective, but I like in joku's juice Here what you got for defense? Uh, Washington, I think they're currently in my lineup. So you're not alone I mean, Tennessee's banged up. Um pro football focus has them as a top five defensive line matchup in terms of expected Like pass grade whatever their whatever their metrics are. Um, I know there's not going to be a ton of passing coming here, but I'm okay with uh A little bit of a low scoring game if if whenever there is a drop back, it's going to be pretty bad Yeah, I think that they are at $3200 a pretty easy route to go to For this week and I will likely be pretty high on them other defensive wonder flag was the saints I love geno smith for respect to geno. I hope he keeps thriving But the saints defense is pretty talented a lot of juice there their six point favorites the seahawks Weirdly pretty pass heavy, which is good for us from a defensive perspective shots at sacks shots at interceptions I like the upside for the saints. So although the commanders are pretty interesting at 32 I don't mind the saints either at $3,800 being a route to go. We're trying to save some salary. I will have some Patriots defense two at 36 against my guy jared golf. So going against my my boys this week not tana hill, but Jared and geno That's all we got here for this week on the heat check fantasy podcast the week five preview brand and any final thoughts for you Now that we've kind of talked through the entire slate I'm probably gonna play more color Murray than I thought I want to make I want to just check I didn't bully you into using him. Did I because I hope I didn't No, I don't want to be responsible. I don't want to be responsible for that So there's like it's not disingenuous that I like, uh Teddy that I like Kyler a bit, but I I might honestly just lock in jeal and herds into every lineup. That's that's not off the table I think that's That's not that's not dumb But I can't push back on that at all for catch games. Yes, and he will be pretty heavily for me in tournaments as well for me, it's just like Re-emphasizing the strength the mid range running backs this week. Uh, feel good about that I think that you can feel good having a small core at quarterback this week small core if you can at running back and then allow yourself to Get exposure to some fun wider receivers. We might not always have the salary for because this is the slate to do it. So Jefferson on the table Both the browns a jay and marquise on the table. It's a fun week for that for sure That is all we got here on the heat check fantasy podcast week five preview We are back with you once again on monday to recap what went down week number five and take a look forward At week number six to get that podcast make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Wherever you get your podcasts. We're also live on the fangirl youtube page 10 a.m On mondays and thursdays branded people have questions for you on twitter. Where can they find you there? I'm on twitter at middle of 13 g d u l a one three And I am on twitter at gymsana so you can also follow the fangirl podcast network at fangirl podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your nfl dfs lineups We'll talk to you once again on monday to wrap it all up. This has been heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire