 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network I'm sure it's been this way in years past too But my goodness was the first day of NFL free agency a mess There was so much stuff going on It feels like every key for agent has already been signed and there's a lot to react to and a lot of betting implications of what we saw Happen during the day yesterday after in due for days go through the signings the key signings Talking about Kirk Cousins to Atlanta what it means for both the Falcons and the Vikings talking with Eagles big moves Interesting moves elsewhere across the NFL and try to identify What it means from a betting perspective based on the current available markets of Fandall sportsbook And I'll talk about some wind totals via my model. I have got that model already No wind totals up yet a Fandall sportsbook We'll go through some key numbers for the primary players from yesterday. Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research. My name is Jim Sannis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research He had a recap day one of the legal tampering period in the NFL and outline what it means from a betting perspective for this 2024 NFL season but first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to Covering the spread wherever you get your podcast. 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Hope is here as a gambling helpline MA org or call 100 3 2 7 50 50 for 247 support of Massachusetts or call 1 8 7 70 hoping Y or text open Y in New York Let's kick things off here by talking about the big news from day one of re-agency which of course was Kirk Cousins deciding to sign in principle with the Atlanta Falcons right now The Falcons are a very interesting team because it's obviously a big upgrade going from Desmond Ritter Taylor Heinecke to Kirk Cousins and The reason that I think this is a big upgrade is because it's not just Kirk But also like there were a lot of dumb mistakes that the Falcons made and I think that kind of masked some good Infrastructure around their quarterback and that's not a huge surprise if you watch them you kind of understand what that's all about Cousins has been a a solid but unspectacular quarterback in good conditions And he gets good conditions here playing in a dome Playing with some good offensive skill players. So it's a good situation for the Falcons But it's a bit flawed beyond the quarterback and I think that maybe that's being a bit overlooked by the market right now The defense of the Falcons is fine. They're really good against the run They're okay against the past definitely not great there and especially once you dig into some more of the granular stuff They look a bit shakier against the past and what the overall numbers may have looked like last year Basically on early downs. They are pretty inefficient against the past. They're better on late downs But you know early down stuff does tend to be a bit stickier So I have more concerns about their past defense than others may and like, you know, their skill guys are good But like beyond Drake London, you got Kyle Pitts who dealt a lot of injuries and consistency And then a lot of question marks beyond that outside of B. Jean Robinson. So the skill guys are good I don't think they're great. I think they're a step below what he had with Justin Jefferson Half-year Jordan Addison as well TJ Hawkinson when he was there So I think it actually is a downgrade from an environment perspective for cousins as well So when I put together the defense with some question marks along with cousins and some decent skill guys I settle in at 9.4 wins on this falcons team and that's a pretty good mark Especially in a division that doesn't have a ton of great teams But it's also below market because if you look at fan dual sportsbook They have team specials up for various teams and they have the falcons at minus 165 To win 10 plus games and as mentioned my win total has them at 9.4 right now They're minus 110 to win the nsc south I can't get there. I think that the market is a bit too high On the falcons. They've got a great schedule that does help things for sure But so does the rest of the division. So if we're talking about gaining ground in the division It's not going to move the needle as much as you might think I still think the saints are kind of lively in the discussion at plus 340 the buccaneers brought back Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans So Honestly, I think it comes down to this. I Was lower on the market or than the market on the falcons entering last year I am lower on their infrastructure around the quarterback entering this year as well So I think that I'm giving the same bump to the falcons as the market and adding Kirk cousins But the problem is the baseline was lower So that gap isn't going to get bridged I'm not going to go after the falcons to win the nsc south even with cousins being in place now I think minus 110 is too rich minus 165 or 10 plus wins is too much for me It's a gettable division, but minus 110 is a bridge too far from me So even with Kirk cousins in town I don't see myself buying into the falcons in the futures market for this year Just because I think the saints are okay, you know, okay They're not great. They're okay. I think the bucks are okay I could see myself buying into the the saints later on but the falcons to me Markets a bit too high in them. So I'll pass despite the fact they did get a big upgrade in adding Kirk cousins to this roster Well, some of the other moves that occurred across yesterday Obviously the big one is the vikings losing Kirk cousins as he goes to Atlanta Let's talk about their situation. So the vikings are a very interesting team And obviously losing cousins does hurt them quite a bit Ivan is being downgraded 1.99 wins from where they were before the cousins departure And you add them to the fact that this division is pretty tough with the lions the packers and the bears potentially getting better as well So all all and all I've got the vikings that's 6.1 wins And that's a disappointing number for a team that I think won, you know, 13 or whatever was games a couple of years ago But that's kind of the reality of what you've got with Sam darnler is your project is starting quarterback So that sounds low and it may sound like I don't like the vikings as a result I do like what they're doing. I like the process of what the vikings are doing They've got solid Defensive signings. Uh, so they added some guys if we assume they lose to neil hunter. I think overall they're Making some smart signings not splurging too much on the defensive side of the the ball Giving brian floris and fun pieces to work with and they've got a really good infrastructure around the quarterback between Jefferson addison erin jones now in the mix as well So I think that what they're doing is if they add a rookie quarterback That quarterback will be in a good spot to succeed and you can't say that of everybody like the panthers last year Or traded away dj more. So when they added brice young, it was like, okay What are you gonna do with him and we saw that happen throughout the year as well So I think what the vikings are doing is giving themselves a path to a ceiling And that's not going to translate to a high wind total this year because wind totals are inherently more so Medians than 90th percentile outcomes But I do like what they're doing and I think that they have potential I don't think I'll wind up being above market on the vikings for this year specifically They're plus 550 to win the nsc north and I don't think that's going to be a Number I like all that much. I'm not going to get them there, but I think it does give us a rate of where their wind total will be I think it'll probably be around seven or so if I had to guess where that wind total is Maybe I wind up liking the under but Long term I think the vikings are doing the right thing and I wouldn't be shocked if they were to draft a guy And he could be someone who comes in is at least somewhat successful right away We go over to the nfl draft markets at fan dual sports book The vikings are now plus 230 to be the team that drafts jj mccarthy I think that makes a lot of sense as we discussed in a An episode on the draft earlier on this year. My model likes mccarthy Quite a bit not as much as you know jade and daniels Um, and I think that kayla williams a lot better too, but like mccarthy has Really good underlying numbers. He's a very young quarterback decently experienced. He's efficient And when you put a guy like that in a good infrastructure It's very possibly succeeds So although my wind total model is low on the vikings for 2024 I like what they're doing. I think that the overall process of what the vikings have done so far is pretty sound So I think arrows up on the vikings long term despite the fact the short term Isn't going to feel that great I do want to stick in the anisee north briefly here They the biggest signings were not with green bay, but I think they're a very interesting team For this year because the overall division is fun. Uh, the the packer is obviously Signing Xavier McKinney swapping out erin jones for josh jacob's jones now at the vikings I don't care about the running back part. I think that was really just a move to get younger at the position Which which I understand. Um, I might not have done that personally because I think that erin jones is still a really good player Who could be a viable contributor on a team that wants to compete but I don't think they're getting better there at running back The McKinney part is interesting though because this defense of the packers ranked 20 seconds overall last year based on number fire schedule adjusted metrics They were 20th against the pass and 21st against rush and McKinney is a guy who can help in those areas He's not going to fix everything though But it's a good get at a position where they obviously did need some help given some guys they cut earlier on this off season When you combine that with their offense, I actually have the packers projected for 10.1 wins That's only a half win behind the lions who are at 10.6 The lions are currently plus 135 to win the nfc north the packers are plus 220 The bears are interesting given that they've got uh likely kayla williams in town I think that does make them intriguing. I've got them at eight wins, which is like a decent number, uh, but I don't think they're in the same tier as the lions and the packers right now So I do want to see where the packers win total opens up at because I think that's the preferred market for me I don't really want to bet against the lions given that Uh, I like jerry goff a lot. I like that they add a carlton davis I think that the lions overall are front teams So if I bet the packers win the nfc north, I'm inherently betting against the lions If I bet their win total instead, I'm not necessarily doing that So that's my preferred market for the packers But I will say that plus 220 is very interesting given that I'm lower on the vikings Not super super high in the bears and I think this packers team does have a lot of upside When you combine jordan love with their young skill guys, maybe mckinney can help this defense as well I think there are building blocks there that are pretty good for the packers. So Not firing it right now plus 220 to win the nsc north, but There the packers will be one of the first teams whose win total I check out Once it is eventually posted over at fandals sportsbook another big signing on Monday was the philadelphia eagles grabbing a seiquan barkley I honestly thought the entire time this was like a smoke screen. It was The eagles or someone saying they had interest in seiquan in order to drive the asking prize to the cowboys So if the cowboys might be a good spot for seiquan to go drive the asking prize the the giants As well if they want to resign him I thought it was all a smoke screen and then howie roseman says nope We're actually bringing this guy in they added in bricehoff as well um So like, you know some Important signings for the eagles and some fun ones too I've never been a big deandre swift guy so I was fine with them moving on from him and seiquan barkley is a running back who Can add value in the passing game I don't for me personally my like philosophical stance in the nfl is I don't really care a lot about position I care about where you contribute and seiquan barkley Won't contribute to the passing game as much as like a wide receiver But he's also not getting paid like a wide receiver So I don't mind paying a running back if he if he makes your passing offense more efficient I don't care about that You know paying a linebacker if he makes your pass defense more efficient stuff like that I don't care a position You are I care about what you do and seiquan does make me at least a bit better in the passing game Now last year when we look at the eagles Their rushing offense should have been a lot better than what it was when you consider that offensive line when you consider the fact that rushing quarterbacks do tend to open a lot of lanes for rushing offenses This team should not have ranked ninth in schedule adjusted rushing efficiency based on number of fire's metrics But that's where they were I think they needed to make a move to make their running back position better and getting barkley does help there But they're also not a team that uses their back a lot in the passing game They did do a bit more of it last year deandre swift had a 10 target game He had a couple of the games of six and kind of gain well did too now We saw them scale back on swift down the stretch potentially because swift just isn't that good Overall, I don't know. I don't want to you know dump on him this entire show But like barkley is good in those areas and He gives them for legitimately good targets in the passing between a j brown Devontae smith dallas goddard and kellen moore is at least interesting to as a play caller So I like this offense The problem is this defense is still really really poor and that was the main problem for them last year It was not the offense that dragged the eagles down. It was their defense and now Sure, you add bryas huff, but they also they already had some good de decent pass rushers and hasan reddick um And so like they're probably gonna move one of their pass rushers So I don't know if huff actually gives you a ton additionally given that he was more of like a Situational pass rusher in his previous life now no Fletcher cocks so My numbers are still low on the eagles Even though they've gotten bumped up in free agency with the barkley signing and the huff signing Right now the eagles are plus 135 to win the nfc east east I've got the cowboy still a full tier above the eagles You know, that's like, you know kind of a clown take to have I'm aware of that but like Cowboys came back last year And that eagles defense hasn't gotten a lot better. They did a vik fangio and vik fangio matters He's a good defensive coordinator I've got a bump in there for him because I think he does matter It's a lot better than what they had of Matt patricia toward the end of last year I just I need to see a bit more from their defense before I have a lot of faith in this eagles team as it's currently constructed so The offense not really super super concerned there, you know, they do lose jason calisly which stinks But like overall that is still a very talented side of the ball And I'd expect them to play pretty well in offense next year The defense still sucks though And that's my big concern at this team and I haven't seen enough to have a lot of faith there So eagles plus 135 to win the nfc east no consideration for me even at that number And I would not be shocked if I'm on the under on their win total for the season as well One signing that was not on Monday, but didn't we haven't really discussed yet in the show was the steelers signing Russell wilson probably going to compete with kenny picket and I'm not sure that's one that's going to get me anywhere near them. They're 11 to 1 to win the afc north I'd expect their win total to be probably around seven and a half or so And I've got them at a 7.1 wins and that's nowhere near the top of this division The ravens are 11.6 wins for me bangles at 10.6 Then you got cleveland who has upside if they can Get to show on watson to figure his stuff out if jerry judy helps maybe get watson a bit better You know They have upside at least despite the fact they're underwhelming I don't think that pittsburgh has an upside So if you want to bet the steelers to win the afc north you need them to beat three teams That have upside and they don't have that so like Can the steelers win 10 games? Maybe can they win 11? Probably not and one of these three teams probably will win 11 games So I can't consider them in the division I Will probably want to being pretty in line at their win total if I had to guess Uh wilson is an upgrade from kenny picket, but that's not saying a whole lot I can't put their projected passing efficiency very high Given what we've seen from Russell wilson recently. So uh, no interest in the Steelers here I'll see what their win total settles in at maybe I can add some interest there But uh as of right now not a team. I'm looking at two closely I didn't want to go through other key teams that have had uh gains in the free agency period as far as the teams I've had a slight upgrades. I got the patriots that plus a point a two wins which could be percent coming in I couldn't put their projected passing efficiency super super high given that their skill guys Were a big issue and they're still not better So it's brissette what he was with cleveland, but with downgraded skill guys around him and that's still a somewhat underwhelming Makeup for them. So patriots 17 to 1 in the afc east that makes sense. I I understand that they're getting better But still they are the fourth lowest team in projected win total to me this year despite the gains with brissette, uh, I've got the raiders that plus a half win with the gardener minchew signing He is what he is. He is not up high upside. Hopefully the raiders are still in the market for a Potential long-term starter because minchew is not that you know up a half win But nothing to write home about the ransom plus point one six wins I think that's kind of interesting because they've uh, they've committed to Making the interior their offensive line pretty good. You add that with um Some pretty fun guys overall You know, they're plus uh 4 10 to win the nfc west for a reason because that's the niners are there The niners are far and away the top team projected win totals from me So not betting the rams, but wouldn't be shocked if I consider them from a win total perspective I'm at 9.4. I'm guessing I'll probably be in line of the market. Uh there Final one that got a bump up was the jags and I don't know man. They're a weird team. I think they're very frustrating I think they're Intriguing a plus 220 to win the afc south. This is not like I gave them a bump up for gave davis I did not do that. Um, I did give them a bump up and not a huge one just because he's like competent He's a good run blocker. There are some things that gave davis does well And I think for me, it's more so about I expect regression in a positive sense from trevor lorenz this year So in looking at the afc south, I think the jags are pretty interesting at plus 220 I have them above houston right now personally. I feel very bad about that because I love CJ stroud, but It's a large part because of the schedule the so the way this works is Houston won the afc south they have to face like the division winner schedule And that's a lot tougher schedule. So in terms of power rankings I have got the texans as the better team in my in my preferred model But in terms of win total the jags come out on top Because their schedule is about 0.8 wins easier than what the texans is so Even though I like the texans more and I love cj stroud I wind up having the jags above them in terms of projected win total because of the easier schedule they will face so I don't know. I don't really want to bet against CJ stroud because I adore him But with where things stand right now the jags Our team I could self see myself buying into to win the afc south in large part because of their division The fallers across the opening day the bucks lost 0.44 wins for me Carlton davis trade is a big part of that but also lost some other guys who did get downgrade them to so A downgrade there for the bucks. I mentioned before I'm highest in the saints to win the nsc south the saints did get downgraded to given that they Have a tougher schedule now with uh, cur cousins being in town I still think the saints are the best bet to win the nsc south at plus 340 Do I like that? No Because I don't want to bet on derrick car giving all the bad vibes around them last year But it is a somewhat efficient quarterback with chris olave. We're chichi heat guys like that I understand why my model is here. It is what it is The cowboys lost 0.37 wins across the first day for agency. They didn't do anything They lost some offensive line pieces as well. That's why they went down Eagles got better giants got better with the brian burns trade stuff like that So I I'm okay with the cowboys getting downgraded because they're kind of high for me to begin with and they're still high Uh, but I'd like them to get bumped down a bit more So loses in day one But still a team of high on overall are the cowboys and then the final one that they got downgraded was The panthers the brian burns trade Like I know Probably not a bad decision in a vacuum given that they're not a team that will compete right now Burns is a very good player They got a decent return on for him with a second and fifth round pick obviously not the two first runners It could have gotten from the rams a couple years ago, but like Probably a smart idea to trade him despite the fact. He is a very very good player And then you adding kirk cousins to the nsc south so although the panthers Did bulk up the interior of their offensive line by bringing in a couple of good guards They weren't great guards. They paid a lot of money for those guys and I still have question marks around this passing offense so tough scene for the panthers who are currently Second to last in my win total moda for this year Hopefully they can turn things around maybe add a receiver with those two second round picks But it's grim still for the panthers despite some of the moves they did make yesterday That's all we got here for today on covering the spread What we'll talk more nfl on thursday with ryan williams getting his read on reactions to what he's seeing Across re-agency with that being the first official day on wednesday where these contracts may become final and stuff like that So we'll talk to ryan on thursday to get more nfl free agency reaction Your way then to get that as it is posted make sure you subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Tomorrow and friday talking college basketball conference tournaments with our writers over a fan of research aiden cotter and riley thomas They'll be with us on the show on wednesday and friday. Hopefully get you some good bets across Those days in the men's college basketball conference tournaments if you've got any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis. You can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis and Check out fan dual research on twitter at fan dual research Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across tuesday. Enjoy day two of the nfl free agency market We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network