 Another explosion rocks Emo State as an oil refinery goes up in flames and Igbo groups warn that any attempts to deny Southeast Presidency will spell doom for Nigeria. Well, this is Plus Politics. I am Mary-Anna Combe. The Emo State Police Command has confirmed that there was a bomb blast at a flow station in the oil-producing community of Izombi in Oguta, local government area of the state. The incident was a suspected bomb attack on the oil facility. It was reported that the victims were the carriers of bombs which exploded when they were trying to enter the oil facility. This incident comes 12 days after several persons were feared killed when an explosion rocked an illegal crude oil refinery in the state. What's running us to discuss this is Public Policy Analyst, Dr. Law Merfo and a Political Analyst, Chaus, or two. Thank you very much, gentlemen, for joining us. Good evening. Thank you very much, Dr. Merfo. Let's start by asking the question that is on everybody's mind. What exactly is going on in Emo State? We've seen it's from one mishap to the other. We've seen people killing their own. We've even heard reports of a soldier that was killed. I mean, if it's not one thing, it's the other. And it leaves us with that question. So do you have an idea of what exactly is going on in Emo State? Well, I think one can only try to sort of put together the bits and pieces and make some sense out of it. There is no doubt that the governor of Emo State is not having it easy with some non-state actor groups there. And there are, you know, more parts for time now. And if you check what has happened in a more part of Emo State from about the year now, you can see that that is what I want to believe is escalating and assuming a more rightful dimensions. And in all that, all I see, as far as my senses can carry me, is a face-off, a battle between the non-state actors and the state actors there in Emo State. And they have, both sides have exchanged words and threats and each has tried to make a good threat. And the most recent dimension being added now is a bomb explosion. And which one may have to put as a part of what is already going on? And I think it is quite a factor, but because bombing of oil facilities in Emo State has not been part of the problem. So it's certainly a new one. So for me, I think it's the mishandling of the security situation in Emo State that has led to the escalation of it. I do not think that over-reliance on a kinetic approach to solving the security in Emo State is sufficient, adequate or even advisable. For me, I will always maintain a healthy and delicate balance between a kinetic and non-kinetic approaches in resolving the security situation. You find anywhere, not just in Emo State, anywhere at all. You don't just use force alone. There should be some ways of using back channels to deal with some of these things. We don't need to really know what we want in related peace so that people can go about their normal business. Okay. I like the fact that you're looking at strategies to bring some form of relative peace. But let's go to the root cause of the problem because this is why questions are begging to be answered. Before now, Emo State was not known to be this hotbed that it has become overnight. And for somebody who's from the South East, and in a situation where we are building up to an election, also in a climate where the South East is canvassing for an opportunity at the presidential seat, why do you think that Emo State is even facing this level of insecurity in the first instance? Is that a question for me? Yes. Yes, you said why... How did it start? Because... Yes. Why Emo State got into the security situation and found itself? Yes. I got into it in the first place. Yes. Yes. I got what I said. I think the over-reliance on, you know, kinetic approach. What I mean by kinetic approach is the use of force, you know, using force to try to obliterate, you know, the non-state actors and their activities. That's one level of it. And again, even before the face-off and the actual confrontation between the government of Emo State and the security apparatus in the States, and then the non-state actors, you'll find the IDOB, you'll find the security network. And now the non-government, you know, has also joined the mix. And then, you see, camps are known to have been established in Emo State, in Anabra State, where they were all around the United States, and indeed, in many parts of Nigeria. You know, if you ask, how did Emo get into this level of insecurity? It's because the government security forces didn't act preemptively. They didn't act when they should. They were there when non-state actors established camps in the forest. They established camps. They were training, arming themselves. They were able to grow to the point that they were able to confront the state actors and state structures. So they cannot be blame-less in things. If they nip it in the board, they would not be able to organize themselves, train themselves, build physical camps, armed themselves, and are not involved into the point that they can confront the army, the police, and everybody else. So, he's saying, and then the governor himself, he has not really tried out any aspect of peace. He's relying, essentially, on arrest and kill and all that. And the other side is fighting back, probably, to stay alive or to get even, because any of their members killed. They're trying to get even. And of course, if they get even on the other side, if you kill a policeman or a soldier, you don't expect the Nigerian military to keep quiet. You don't expect the police to keep quiet. So he has become a vicious speckle of violence. You know, violence is perpetrated by the inability of the state to really read and interpret the goings-on in a immune state. And indeed, in other parts of the United States, because an umbrella state is almost as hot as immune state as we speak. So it's not just a matter of immune state alone. What is happening in the immune state is because that is the one that drew your attention. Some very serious insecurity challenges have also sprung up in an umbrella state and in other places. So what I'm saying is the state security system, the state security apparatus, where we are today, where these non-state actors were setting up their shops, when they were setting up their camps, training and arming themselves, they didn't do their job. Now we have entered what you call damage control. But we are here facing it. We just have to confront it and deal with it. And to succeed, you need to use back channels. You need to combine kinetic and non-kinetic. Kinetic is use of us, which is already in place. But non-kinetic is using a carrot, you know, piece of vegetables, negotiations. You don't need to do it in the open. Some of these things are done using back channels. What you want is a result. And that is the only thing that concerns and that makes sense to the citizens. They don't care how you achieve that result. Let me go to Charles. Charles, can you hear me? It's interesting how the lawyer has described the situation in the immune state. And of course he's talked about other parts of the Southeast. But let me ask you, do you think that there is a political aspect to the insecurity and the uprising, not just in Emostid, but of course in Anambra and the pockets of violence that the Southeast is facing today? Thank you very much. Re-echoing what my co-guests have said, the security situation or the insecurity in Emostid has a serious political dimension. I said this because I knew that the circumstances which the governor emerged, that is a governor who was a dimmer, was such that was spectacular that he needed more wisdom. Like he analyzed the use of kinetic force on the people behind or suspected to be behind the security. We will in a long time not achieve the desired result. And that is what is playing out. And I think there was enough caution to that effect that you must do more of that login. You must do more of engaging because there are a combination of forces like he pointed out, we started with threats from IPOB from there to now you have the issue of a non-gun move. Mr. Choo, can you hear me? I think we lost that connection with Mr. Choo. But let me come back to you, Mr. Mefal. So if we're all saying that this has some ties to the governor and you're saying that maybe there has to be back channels and dialoguing why is it so difficult for the state governor to have this conversation or probably ask what these people want because I'm guessing even the guys who are causing mayhem in the Northeast Boko Haram at some point had a cause. Although we do not know what the bandits want. But if there is room for a conversation to be had, why is it taking so long for these conversations to be had? How many lives have to be lost for this conversation to be had? You know, I believe that like I tried to establish earlier when the Facebook started, you've got reliance on the non-kinetics. That is very, very important. But I believe that both sides have made their point and it is time to try other methods. You know, more people do not need to die. And I also want to believe that IDOB is a security network. They also want peace. And I want to see what they are doing as a battle for survival. They want to stay alive. And I'm curious as to what battle to stay alive would mean killing other people. Because I remember at the beginning of all of this when the federal government and security agencies pointed fingers at IPOP and ESN, they came up clearly to say they were not responsible for this. But now down the line, we're seeing that the writing on the wall is that they are mostly behind some of these killings. Reportedly. So again, what kind of cause would they be fighting for if it means them killing their own brothers and sisters to make a point? What point are they trying to make? The issue is deeper than you are looking at it. From all indications, IPOP has a faction. And you hear Simon F. giving counter-outdown from Finland. And then Emma Powerful speaking for a broad-based IPOP countering him. That tells you that even when a part of IPOP says they are not responsible, the other party, they're being responsible. And in other words, you may make peace with one side that won't speak and the other side is going on. For example, the issue of a sit-atum every Monday. It has been countered, in fact, suspended by one arm of the IPOP. But the other arm led by Simon on a sit-atum. So that tells you that the IPOP has two factions. We just have to face a reality there. So talking with one side may not be enough. It looks like what happened in the case of Boko Haram. When Shakao was around, at the point Boko Haram broke into two. And Abawani was leading a faction. So Abawani was more disposed to discussions and negotiations and stuff. But Shakao never wanted that. So if you have a similar thing happening with the ITUB and ESN, you really have a big problem on your hands. So government will have to reach out and courageously confront what is going on. I see clearly the situation is manageable. And if Biafra is what they want, they need to be aligned to get the Biafra. And you can do Biafra agitation without adding arms to it. This has always been my position. And I also believe that what is fueling, providing oxygen for Biafra agitation is an exclusion of the marginalization. It has led to too many youths being funded and questioning the relevance of the Nigerian nation state to their own survivor. So if you look at it, if you look at it, you will discover that there is a way you can begin on this path. Today, I read that even Britain is trying to disallow in passing that has anything to do with the Biafra from entering Britain. That's a big problem. And they can escalate to the whole European Union. And that becomes a problem to Nigerians of sorts in the structure because our names will always give us out that you are, okay, Chupu, you are Chupu Ode, all that. So when they see those names, they know you are from that side. So if we are all paired with the same brush as Biafra agitators, members of IPOP, and therefore terrorists, you can see that it's going to be quite tragic. So everything has to be done. So we need to escalate what is going on at the moment. It is still possible. I still see some windows. Then there is also another emerging trend. Those who are in the mainstream of the ITU, Biafra agitation groups, leadership, it may be peaceful, may want things to be orderly and so on and so forth. But there are criminal elements that have actually taken a part of the struggle and I always ask that question. I mean, let's take, for example, when we were having the killer herders and Mieti Allah kept saying, well, it wasn't us. I always ask, you can tell who your members are and you can also tell who your members are not. So what do you do to make sure that you fish out these bad eggs? Because of course, there are always opportunities in the midst of every kind of agitation. What are the members of the other side of the IPOB or ESN who say that they're for a good cause? What are they doing to put an end to the other side, which is bad because this cannot be less for government alone or even the innocent people who are not armed. So how do you handle that? It's going to be tough because only a madman can confront a man with a gun. So if you are dealing with a part of the group that is armed, dealing with them because they're very dedicated. So even those who are Afro agitators who do not believe in the use of arms or violence cannot even speak out openly against them because they are like those who are sick. So a lot of problems are not on front end, they're sorry, not just in most cases alone and they all have to be on deck and need to see more action from the religious leaders and bishops. I want to see more action from Mohanese. I want to see more action from the Southeast Governance. The Southeast Governance have not shown any commitment to resolving the problem that is going on in the service. They have not done anything. I'm sorry to cut you. I'm sorry to cut you. I think we have Charles or two back. So let me just quickly go in his direction. Mr. Tui, if you can hear me. Let's look at the political angle to this particular situation. Like I said before, we lost that connection with you. We're in the thick of campaign season. We're in the thick of picking who would run for different political parties. There's zones who are agitating that the ticket come to them. What does this whole agitation? I had a conversation yesterday and I want to quickly play that audio. I had a conversation with somebody from the North, a political analyst. His name is Musa Idris. And he clearly stated that the Southeast is not ready to field any candidate. And he made mention of the fact that look at what is happening in the Southeast. It's not possible for you to have a candidate. And he also said that the Southeast is not sure what it wants. If it wants Biafra, it wants to stay in Nigeria, but that the onus lies on the Southusness and their leaders of thought. I'd like to hear your reaction to that. Unfortunately, we can't play you that video. Okay. Thank you very much. The, the, the question in your most book, like I said earlier, is has remained political. And that is because the governor of the state has not been able to address the core issue, which is to drop the use of force to initiate genuine dialogue. It is not easy to dialogue, but we could see that despite all that is happening in Anambra state, Professor Soludo, the new governor of Anambra has insisted in using so many non-conventional approaches, including the religious leader, the traditional institutions and all that, including good groups and organizations to, you know, first step is to say, look, you have to take back your state. We don't see that this kind of message is coming. On the 7th of and 8th of November, 2020, I remember I was part of a group. I was part of a training for traditional rulers in the most state at the very cultural center conducted by one, a Lambeca group. And in that seminar, which I was part of, many individuals, including Catholic priests, were invited, traditional rulers, security experts beyond even a certain to talk to the government and the people on the use of non-conventional approaches to, at that time, their security was not this high point. But it does appear that not much has gone on in terms of implementation or the recommendation of that particular security summit anymore. And the governor being more interested the way I read his body language in politics of 2023. And of course, relying more that the use of force, use of the military and all that could, so to get and bring calmness in the state, it has not helped the situation in the most state. Now, our fears to set down the fact that, look, these people have left the political class. They have left every other arm. They are now dealing with what is a threat to the national economic survival of Nigeria. They are not dealing with oil facilities. They are not dealing with things that has to do with our survival as a nation. I mean, this is a more threatened dimension, especially common in an election season. It calls for what it calls for concern. And my view would be, which is what I've been saying, the saddest governors led by the governor of the boy state has to really sit down again to redefine what they established as the Eastern security network. They, I mean, the Ebu Bagu security network. Ebu Bagu, yes. The Ebu Bagu security network was meant to be a regional security outfit like a motorcycle. But if we wash the way the different other three governors or four governors of the studies has been acting or behaving, it does appear that Ebu Bagu has only been operating in a boy and that I won't talk about it because what is he going to do in a boy? It is not going after their non-government. It's only going after political opponents. That is a story for another day. But it is time, like my colleagues say, for the saddest governors, if they really want to prove to the people that they can return peace to the 30s, it is time for them to come together again to redefine the modules and operations of Ebu Bagu because it is only in that kind of approach that we can begin to say, okay, whereas conventional security is failing, where kinetic use of force is failing, we can begin to rely on those who can know and understand better the language of some of these agitators. It is time for the Papis governor to bring together the people that are known, the people that have been passed down or have profiled at some point to be members of this agitative group. They need to bring them to a table with Hanez and Ebu, traditional laws of studies instruction and the leaders leaders to map and chart a way forward. Otherwise, going into the table for elections, more arms has been in the hands of people who should not have arms. And they drop for the saddest steps entirely. Well, I want to say thank you, gentlemen. Unfortunately, time is not our friend. Law Mefor is, he is a political analyst and he is a public policy analyst also and Chaucer too is a political analyst. Thank you very much, gentlemen. We will revisit this conversation as it develops. We'll take a quick break. Thank you all for staying with us. When we come back, the issues surrounding the Southeast presidency will be on the table right after this.