 All right, hi, everyone. Welcome to today's session brought to you by ThickMill, where we will be concluding Build Your Trading Strategy, Part 3, which will be swing trading. OK, apologies for the delay. Just some minor technical issues. Just sorting out a few things before we start. So just want to make sure you guys can hear me loud and clear and see my screen as well. Just give me a minute while I just sort a couple of things out. And do think that we've got the chat box open as well. So do not hesitate to drop any questions or queries that you may have at any point during this webinar. All right, just want to make sure you guys can hear me loud and clear and see my screen as well. Just give me a minute, and I'll be right back. All right, hi, everyone. OK, let's kick things off. All right, OK, so welcome to today's webinar brought to you by ThickMill, where we'll be concluding Part 3 of Build Your Trading Strategy, which covers swing trading. So just before we start, do take note of the disclaimer. And the highest warning as well. This material provided here is for information purposes only. It should not be considered as investment advice. And also take note of the high risk warning that comes with trading CFDs as their complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. All right, so my name is Keter Rameshchandra. So this webinar series is brought into special partnership between ThickMill and Everest Fortune Group, where we've been the finalist for Best FX and equity research for the following years, 2019, 2020, and 2021. All right, so this is the agenda for today. What is swing trading? We'll start off with that, of course. And then we'll look at what are the typical swing trading indicators that we can use. What are the typical chart patterns as well? So the more common one that we can use to identify momentum, reversals, breakouts. Then we'll also look at fundamental data as well, which fundamental data has been acting as a strong catalyst in the current market environment. And of course, we'll conclude with the examples of swing trading as well. For the examples, I'll be using the dollar index. As of course, once you know how the dollar index is trading, it translates naturally to all the other currency pairs as well. So if dollar index is rising, currency pairs, such as the euro and the pound, would be falling, or ZQE would be falling. And currency pairs such as dollar yen, dollar freight will be rising. So once we can be able to do the analysis on the dollar index, pretty much everything else will fall into place accordingly. All right, that's a question by D. Rich. All right, OK, there's no certificate of participation, but the webinar recordings are uploaded onto TickMills' YouTube website. So usually it takes about a couple of days, or if not by the end of the week, this webinar recording will be uploaded onto their YouTube page. There's no certificate of participation as far as I'm aware of. All right, OK. And then, OK, so for example, I said we'll be using the dollar index, and we'll also be looking at the indices as well. So we'll be using the SP500, which tracks the SP500 futures. So we'll be using that as an example as well. All right, OK, so basically just the basics first. Those who may not be aware of what is swing trading, it is basically a strategy that attempts to capture short to medium term gains. Now, this can last from a period of a few days to several weeks, and sometimes even a month or so. So it's a trading technique that uses technical analysis to identify potential entry, exit, and stop loss points based on significant swing highs and swing lows, as well as potential breakouts as well. Now, this strategy can be implemented solely, based solely on technical analysis, but if you are looking at fundamentals as well, you can incorporate fundamental analysis into this strategy as an additional tool. All right, so what are some of the pros and cons for swing trading? Well, in general, swing trading takes up less time than day trading, because once the position has been put, has opened, whether you're short or long, you're not going to be continuously analyzing the markets as well. You will be monitoring it, but you will not be continuously analyzing the markets or adding positions or closing positions, right? So if you're doing day trading, you could be opening two or three different positions throughout the day. Perhaps you would start trading during the Asia session as well, and then maybe the Europe session and finally the US session. So you could end up trading at least three times a day, and depending on which currencies or commodities you're looking at, you could have probably five, six trades going on at any particular point in time. Whereas with swing trading, naturally, of course, can have more than one trade going on, but it's quite unlikely you're going to be putting on two swing trading trades in the same day around the same time. So you would generally spend less time once the trade goes active. Of course, before that, you would be spending time doing a technical analysis as well as some fundamental analysis. But that naturally takes time. But of course, once the trade actually goes on, you will spend less time in terms of day-to-day activity, right? Okay, so this is a strategy that tries to maximize medium-term profit potential by capturing market swings. So this could be a swing high or swing low, right? Swing traders can rely solely on technical analysis which simplifies the trading process because if someone may not have time to understand the fundamental side of the market or simply does not wish to devote more time into that and decides to focus more on improving technical analysis, this is a strategy that can be implemented without looking at fundamentals as well. Okay, what are some of the cons of swing trading? Sorry, because as we know, swing trading positions are held from a period of a few days to a few weeks, even a month or two. So these type of positions are, of course, subject to overnight and we can market risk, right? So whenever the futures market close and they reopen, right? There is a possibility of prices gapping, right? They could gap up or gap low. So any significant gap up or gap low could potentially impact our position. Of course, if the market gaps in the direction of your trade, and of course, it is a bonus, but in the event it doesn't, that it actually gaps against your position or your direction, then obviously you could get stopped out or you could turn from, or you could swing from a position in profit to a position which comes to break even or even worse swings into a losing position, right? Okay, and of course, sudden market reversals can result in major losses, but this actually can be mitigated, right? So as soon as you put on any positions, right, there should be a stop loss identified, at least a fixed stop loss identified as a percentage of your total account size. So in general, here, we try and recommend of having a risk size of at least one to 2% of your total account size, right? So any single position, you should not be risking more than one to 2% of your total account on any single trade. So that's how we can mitigate the losses and on each trade as well as mitigate the overall portfolio losses as well. So this is very important. So sudden market reversals can actually be mitigated by implementing a stop loss, right? Starting off with a fixed stop loss and then as position moves in your favor, be it long or short, you can then start to trail, then stop loss manually, or you can do it as an automated feature as well. Okay, and of course, because it's a swing trading position, you're going to be holding that position for a longer period of time. So when it comes to actually booking profits, it actually takes a longer time to actually book profits, of course, but naturally because it is such a, you're having a longer holding period, generally in terms of absolute returns and percentage returns, they're actually much higher than, for example, swing trading, for example. So when compared to day trading, right? Okay. All right, okay. There's a question by Prabhupadeek. Yeah, actually we'll be going through the slides first and then after that we'll go into the charts as well. So this is how the webinar has been structured, the content has been structured. So we'll be going through the basics first, looking at the slides, looking at chart patterns, looking at fundamental data, looking at how to interpret the fundamental data, and then we'll go into examples of swing trading, past examples of swing trading and current, then we'll look at some of the live charts as well. All right. Okay, so what are the typical swing trading indicators and chart patterns? Well, these are the more common ones that you can use. Moving averages, of course, Bollinger banks, Tocastic Oscillator, Relative Strength Index, or RSI. Now you can use any combination of these indicators or any other indicators as well as, just because I've mentioned these four indicators, it doesn't mean other indicators may not work for swing trading strategies. What's more important is actually to use indicators that you are familiar with and understand and actually help you to identify entry positions, means swing short or swing long positions, right? That's more important. And also recognizing chart patterns as well, because when you look at charts on like a forward timeframe or daily timeframe, you're able to, at least for me, I find it easier to identify such chart patterns and then combining it with technical analysis helps us to identify swing long and swing short entries as well. All right, okay, there's a question, can chart patterns be used on one-minute timeframe? Yes, chart patterns can be used across various timeframes, but for me, because I'm personally more of a swing trader as well. So that is why I look more on the four-hour and daily timeframes, right? Chart patterns are applicable across all the timeframes as well, right? It's definitely applicable across all the timeframes, one-minute, five-minute, 15-minute as well, yep. Okay, so some of the more common chart patterns are the wedges, pendants, triangles, and head and shoulders. So what are wedges? Wedges are used to identify reversals. So a falling wedge on a falling market typically looks for a bullish breakout or a rising wedge on a rising market typically results in a bearish breakout. Now, pendants can lead to new breakouts as well. So this happens when market, the price action consolidates after a significant price action. We look at it through the charts as well, chart patterns as well. Of course, these are just words might not be easier for, might not be easy to visualize it, but we will be looking at some typical chart patterns as well. Then, okay, triangles as well, triangles are seen as a precursor to a breakout. Now, this could be a bullish breakout to the upside or a bearish breakout to the downside. And of course, we have head and shoulders as well that lead to bearish reversals while inverse head and shoulders typically lead to bullish reversals. All right, okay, so now we're gonna be looking at what a typical wedge pattern would look like. So in this sense, you can see price is rising up, price is in a uptrend. And you can also see that by drawing the trend line on the upper trend line and the lower trend line, you can see that it's forming a wedge. So this is what we mean by a rising wedge pattern. Right, so the rising wedge pattern usually forms in an uptrend and once price breaks below the lower trend line, it typically signals a bearish breakout. Now for the downtrend, you can see price action is falling down, is in a downtrend. And when you draw the trend line on the top of the wicks and the bottom of the candles here, you can see the pattern of a falling wedge being formed. And as price breaks out of this falling wedge, this typically signals a bullish breakout. Right, so these are chart patterns. These are typical chart patterns for wedges, uptrend, rising wedge and when price breaks below the lower trend line, this signals a bearish breakout. And then conversely for the falling wedge, when price breaks above the upper trend line, this typically signals a bullish breakout. All right, now these are pendants, right? So pendants, this happens when pendants are generally formed when you have a strong move from, it could be a strong bullish move or strong bearish move as well. So it could also be a case where you have a strong bearish move and then price starts to consolidate as well. And then you will have the pendant being formed, right? So this example here is an example of a pendant being formed after strong correction and then price starts to consolidate, getting narrow and narrow. So you can see it's a case of higher lows and lower highs as you see price getting squeezed into the middle and before the next catalyst causes the price to break either to the upside or to the downside. So pendants can result in bullish or bearish breakouts and it can happen after a strong rise up in price and the price starts to consolidate or squeeze and then this could break either to the downside or to the upside. Similarly, as price corrects heavily and then starts to consolidate and squeeze, you could have a breakout either to the upside or downside again. So this is how we identify or categorize pendant chart patterns. Right, okay, then we also have triangles, right? These are the more typical triangle patterns that you will see. This is a rising triangle here, falling triangle and symmetrical triangle, right? Symmetrical triangle is pretty much falls into the same category as the pendant, right? You can see it's the same category as the pendant. Basically, a symmetrical triangle is essentially a pendant as well. Right, so for the rising triangle, you'll see this sort of top pattern being formed. So you will reach a resistance level, right? It could be a pullback resistance or an overlap resistance where price has failed to break above it a couple of times. It could be two times, three times. In this example, price has failed to break above this resistance level twice, but not only that, it's also making higher lows. So you can see price is making higher lows, right? Price is making, where's my pen? Right, price is making higher lows and you can see strong resistance here as well. Surprise goes up, hits resistance, comes back down, forms a low, goes back up to the same resistance level or around that region, drops back. But as you can see, the lows are getting higher and higher. And it could even run into resistance again, fall back here. You can see the lows are getting higher before finally breaking out. So typically, when you see chart patterns such as this, this typically results in a bullish breakout. Now similarly, for the falling triangle, as price is falling down, it finds strong support and this particular level, it retraces higher, comes back down to the same support or around that zone, bounces higher. But you can see in this case, it is making lower highs, right? So falling triangles identified by lower highs while rising triangles identified by higher lows, right? This is one simple way to differentiate rising triangles and falling triangles. So back to the case of the falling triangle, price has corrected after a strong move, find support and this particular support level retraces higher, comes back down to the same support level, retraces up again, but makes a lower high. It could potentially bounce off this level again to make another lower high before finally breaking out. So this is how we can use the rising triangle and falling triangles to identify potential bullish or bearish breakouts. All right, okay, there's a question by Gupta as well, which timeframe is best suited for technical patterns? Okay, this really depends on your personal training strategy. If you are using five and 15 minute charts or 30 minute charts or even the one minute chart, definitely you can use chart patterns. Chart patterns will be there to be identified. Then similarly, if you go up into the higher timeframes, one hour, four hour daily timeframes, the chart patterns are there as well. So what's more important is to be actually, to be able to identify the chart patterns itself. So this applies across almost all the timeframes, whether it's one minute, five minute, 15, 31 hour, four hour, or the daily timeframe, right? So chart pattern is not associated with any particular timeframe, right? I wouldn't say there's any particular chart pattern that works better in the higher timeframe or it works better in the lower timeframe. I would say they all work pretty equally across all the timeframes. Okay, so these are triangles. All right, no worries, welcome. Okay, next, right? Okay, next, okay, oops. Okay, head and shoulders. Okay, so for head and shoulders, you will see price rising up very strongly and then it runs into a particular resistance. It pulls back. As it makes the first pullback, that's important when it makes the first pullback because that's when you are going to identify the neckline, right? The neckline is the first pullback or the first support level. And then when price bounces off this level to go higher, that's when you form the head. Remember the head must obviously be higher than the left shoulder. If price runs up, drops back to support level and then bounces higher and then drops, then obviously this is not a head and shoulder pattern, right? That's not a head and shoulder pattern. So one key aspect to take note of is as price makes the left shoulder, it drops down to form the neckline, it bounces up. Do take note, the neckline is only identified after price bounces off. So you'll be identified the neckline first as price rises from this support level. And once price climbs above the left shoulder, that's when you have confirmation of the left shoulder and the neckline. And then with price reverses from this new high that starts to drop, that's when you have confirmation of the head, right? So just to recap, you will be looking to identify the neckline first, right? First will be to identify the neckline once price bounces off a support level. Then as price climbs above this original high, that's when you have confirmation of the left shoulder. And then as price reverses from this new high and starts to drop, that's when you get confirmation of the head, okay? So that's how we identify the head and shoulder pattern. And then as price comes back, it's important that price has to bounce off this neckline, right? Price has to bounce off this neckline. If price breaks below this neckline after making this first bounce, then this is not a valid head and shoulders pattern. For a valid head and shoulders pattern, price has to bounce off the neckline for a second time. And then as it bounces higher, the right shoulder can never be higher than the head, right? Price could potentially be higher than the left shoulder here, but this swing high here has to be lower than the head to be able to confirm that this is a valid head and shoulders pattern. So now as price makes this second right, makes this right shoulder, it forms a swing high and starts to drop lower. That's when you, at this point, as price has turned and start to drop. At this point, you know that, okay, this is a valid head and shoulders chart pattern. And as price approaches this neckline, there's a potential, strong potential for a bearish breakout, right? It's a strong potential for a bearish breakout. So this is where you would potentially look to go short on this instrument or even put a cell limit order as well. Now, similarly for the inverse head and shoulder is basically the opposite of the regular head and shoulder. So the regular head and shoulder pattern is used to identify a bearish reversal or a bearish breakout, whereas the inverse head and shoulders would be used to identify a bullish reversal or a bullish breakout. So similarly, as price is falling down, right, as price is falling down, it finds support at a particular level, it bounces up. And then as price runs into resistance again and starts to drop, that's when you can identify the neckline, right? The neckline is only identified after price makes this support here, find support around this level, comes back up to a particular resistance area and then drops. So that's when you're able to identify the neckline. So that's step one, okay? You're able to identify the neckline. And then as price starts to fall, you also get confirmation of the first shoulder, right? Then just like the head and shoulders, to get confirmation of the head, price must drop below the first shoulder, right? Below this low here. If price doesn't drop below this level here, then you're not gonna get inverse head and shoulder pattern. So then once price drops and makes a new low, it starts to reverse to come higher, that's when you get confirmation of the head, right? Get confirmation of the head and then as price approaches the neckline once again, it has to reverse around this level, right? If it breaks above this neckline, then of course this is not an inverse, this is not a valid inverse head and shoulder pattern. So as price reverses from around the neckline, it doesn't have to be exactly at the neckline but close enough to it and starts to reverse. That's when you know that, okay, we are very close to having a valid inverse head and shoulder pattern form. And once again, the second shoulder, this low, this swing low here cannot be lower than the head, right? It can be a little bit lower than the first shoulder. I think that's fine, but it can never be lower than the head and as price forms, finds support around this level and comes up, this is where you would be looking for a potential bullish breakout. So you could either wait for price to break above this level to get confirmation before putting on the trade or you could place a buy limit order if you want to get in at a better price. All right, okay, that's the question. Abdul Moody, can I enter the trade from the top of the right shoulder? Potentially, yes, you can as well. You could potentially do that as well. If you were to do that, right? If you were to enter the trade, so let's take the head and shoulders, the regular head and shoulders pattern, if you were to enter a short trade, once the right shoulder has been formed, you can do so as well because obviously you're gonna be getting it at a much better price action, but I would recommend that you use a relatively tight stop loss. So if you know what's the absolute peak here, like the right shoulder, maybe you have the candle and you have the absolute peak of the wick, I would say set at least depending once again on your lot size and your account size, generally keep about 10 to 20 pips stop loss above the top of this wick, all right? Just to give yourself a little bit of buffer, should price maybe retrace up close to the right shoulder again before dropping again. So yes, you can enter the trade from the top of the right shoulder. Obviously it gets you a much better price, not much better, it gets you a much better entry position on the short side, but do take note, I personally would use a relatively tight stop loss in this scenario, I use it by identify the absolute higher, the candle here, the wick, and use at least 10 to 20 pips buffer to set the stop loss above the highest absolute level. So similarly for the inverse head and shoulder, yes, you can enter the trade as well as the second shoulder is formed and starts to rise up. Naturally, of course, this gets you a much better entry price as well, but similarly find the absolute low of this candle here and put a stop loss that's at least 10 to 20 pips underneath that candle or the wick of that candle to give you a little bit of breathing space. Yes, so you can definitely do that as well. So this is how we can try to identify inverse head and shoulder patterns as well as head and shoulder patterns. All right, okay. Next, we will look at the fundamental data, which fundamental data has been driving currency markets in recent months and weeks as well and how can we interpret the data? It's not only important to know which data is driving markets, but also to be able to identify and interpret the data in a quick and a simple manner, right? Okay, so right, of course, for most parts of 2022 and even 2023 inflation related data has been driving markets, right? So when you have stronger inflation data coming in, let's just take it from the perspective of the US, right? So we all know the Federal Reserve is the most influential central bank in the world whenever they raise interest rates or cut interest rates, it has a major impact on the rest of the financial system as well, right? So the rest of the central banks usually follow suit, they usually follow what the Fed is doing. So let's take it, let's do the interpretation of this data from the perspective of the Federal Reserve and America. So if inflation data is coming in very strong in the US, you get CPI data that's coming in stronger than the forecast every month. Then of course, oops, where's my data? Then of course, the Federal Reserve is likely to be hawkish and that means they're gonna be more inclined to raise interest rates. So again, if the Federal Reserve is in raising interest rates aggressively, the value of the US dollar typically rises, the value of US government bond yields also rise, right? So that means the dollar index is gonna rise as well. And then of course we'll cause currency pairs such as the Euro dollar, pound dollar to fall, Aussie and Kiwi to fall, and of course currency pairs such as dollar yen and dollar franc to rise as well. All right, there's a question by James. No, I don't think TickMeal will pass you the slides, but do feel free to take screenshots at any point in time. And also this webinar will be uploaded on TickMeal's YouTube page as well. So you can always, once it's uploaded, you can always watch the webinar again and then take the screenshots as and when necessary, all right? All right, so yeah, so back to fundamental data, right? So in regards to inflation, inflation's been driving markets on the way up and down as well. So for most parts of 2022 in the US with inflation data coming stronger than expected, dollar index rises, bond government bond yield rises as the Fed raises interest rates aggressively. Now, as inflation data starts to peak and moderate and slow down, you can see inflation trending lower in the US and in general, over the last few months at some points coming in a little bit lower than the forecast as well. So when you have inflation that is dropping on an annualized basis and you see inflation data coming in slightly on the softer side, this creates a bearish catalyst for the dollar index. So that means the value of the dollar index is very likely to fall. And you will see currency pass such as the euro and pound rise, right? Similarly, employment data such as NFPs, we just had NFPs number last week, right? We saw the number was actually much weaker than the forecast as well. And we also saw unemployment rate going higher from 3.8 to 3.9%. So this report, employment report from the US was very bearish for the US dollar because it shows the labor market in the US could be starting to show some signs of weakening. So if the labor market is starting to weaken, that means the Federal Reserve will not be so hawkish with regards to their monetary policy outlook. So that means they are very likely to keep interest rates on hold, which is what they did last week as well. We also had the FOMC meeting last week. So we had two economic events, which was the FOMC and the NFPs, which both acted as a bearish catalyst for the dollar index, right? So we can see clearly last week examples with two very recent data points that showed us how having a neutral statement from the FOMC and having weaker than expected NFP data can cause very strong bearish reaction for the dollar index. Okay, there's a question by Abdul as well. If CPI data is posted higher, what would be the reaction of the dollar? Okay, so typically when CPI data comes in stronger than the forecast, this could be the forecast for the annualized data or for the monthly data and it can also relate to the core reading or the headline reading. So if the total, if all of the inflation data points to a stronger than the expected reading, then this would typically act as a bullish catalyst for the dollar, right? So in general, if CPI data as a whole is stronger than the forecast, this is going to typically act as a bullish catalyst for the US dollar. If CPI data as a whole is softer than the respective forecast, then this will act as a bearish catalyst for the dollar, right? So similarly here, and the other thing is of course central bank actions are important when you have high key cutting intervention. So if you guys have been trading dollar yen or any of the yen crosses recently, you would have seen large drops or large swings in the yen crosses because this is of rumors of possible intervention measures by the Bank of Japan or intervention measures by the Bank of Japan, typically means that the Bank of Japan is going to be selling US dollars and selling US treasuries and they're using the sales proceeds to buy back the Japanese yen in the open market. So when they're buying back the Japanese yen in the open market, that means the value of the Japanese yen is rising and this would cause all the yen crosses to fall. So that means dollar yen will fall, pound yen will fall and so on and so forth. All right, okay. Niraj, I've answered this question earlier as well. Do take note, all tick mill webinars are recorded and they'll be posted onto their YouTube page in due time. It could be the couple of days or by the end of the week and the very latest, right? Do take note. All videos by tick mill are uploaded onto their YouTube page. All right, okay. I'll do this another question as well. If the interest rate of the Federal Bank is raised, okay, we're getting to that. Hi, all right. We're getting to that as well. I'm going to jump into Forex Factory as well, right? This is how we're going to use fundamental data. We're going to use Forex Factory to help us get access to all the data as well. All right, so just going back to interest rates, if the Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates, all right, okay, I'll try and I'll do that for you as well, all right? Okay, all right, Michael. I'll get the YouTube page at the end of the webinar as well, all right. Okay, so if the Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates and if the state, remember, there's three components of FOMC meeting. You have the Federal Reserve actually raising interest rates, holding interest rates or cutting interest rates, then you have the FOMC statement and then you have the FOMC press conference. So there are three elements to the FOMC interest rate decision. So if you have an interest rate decision where the Fed has actually increased rates, but the statement and the press conference actually turn out to be less hawkish than expected, you could actually see the initial gain in the dollar index reverse. So what could be a case of a strong push in the dollar, value of the US dollar at the start could actually reverse because you have a statement and a press conference that is actually less hawkish than was expected, right? So you cannot just look at an FOMC meeting and just one particular aspect, there's three elements to it and you have to incorporate all the three elements to actually determine the true outcome or the true direction of that particular event. All right, okay, so moving on to where can we get the data? All right, so this is data from 3rd October to 12th October of this year. I've highlighted this range because you get a good combination of labor market data such as Joel's job openings, ADP non-farm, unemployment claims, unemployment rate and non-farm payroll here. So these are the NFPs here. Then you also get PPI and CPI data as well. So as you can see, by using Forex Factory, we are able to easily interpret the data, right? So when, okay, so this column here, the rightmost column here is the previous month's data or the previous week's data. Most of the data comes in on a monthly basis, but you do get one or two data that comes in on a weekly basis, but let's just say everything here is on a monthly basis. So this is the previous month's data. Middle column gives you the estimate for the current data or for the latest data and the leftmost column gives you the actual data result itself, right? So in this case, the previous month's reading was 8.92 million. So job openings means the number of job vacancies in the US. So if this number is higher, this typically signals strong hiring demand in the US. So the forecast was for 8.8 million. The actual number gave me the 9.6 million. So that means there's a lot more job openings. So companies are looking to hire strongly. So this will function as a bullish catalyst for the dollar index. So when you see this number in green, it means it has come in higher than the forecast and that means this is bullish for the dollar index. Similarly, ADP non-farm employment change, previous month's reading was 180,000. The estimate for 4th October was 154,000, but the actual data came in lower than the forecast. So when the number is lower than the forecast, when it comes to employment, it turns out to be red. And when it is in red, it means that this is going to function, typically going to function as a bearish catalyst for the US dollar. So this is how we can use 4x factory to easily interpret the data without going into too much details. So similarly, when you have non-farm payrolls on Friday, 6th of October, the estimate was 171,000, but you could see the data was almost more than double, 136,000, and it's in green as well. So when you get this data, which is much stronger than the forecast, this is going to typically act as a bullish catalyst. Similarly, just what we saw last Friday, we had a forecast of I think about 178,000 last Friday for NFPs, but an actual number came in about 154,000. That number would be in red. So that means this is going to function as a bearish catalyst for the dollar index, which is what we actually saw last Friday, right? And coming to CPI. So when you have CPI data here, you have CPI on an annualized basis, year over year or a monthly basis. So when data comes in stronger than the forecast, it comes in in green. So when it's in green here like this, this means that this is typically going to be bullish for the US dollar, right? So this is how we can interpret the data. Similarly, if these two data points actually came in lower than the forecast, let's just say CPI, but the moment came in at 0.2%. CPI year over year came in at 3.4%. These figures would be in red, and that means this is going to typically function as a bearish catalyst for the US dollar, right? So this is how we can interpret the data quite easily. And I'll go on to Forex Factory now as well. So here I am on Forex Factory. The good thing about Forex Factory is, okay, so just let me do get last week's data, right? Let's just look at last week. So you can see last week unemployment numbers here, don't far pay all unemployment rate, right? We saw the actual data coming in at 150,000, which is lower than the forecast of 178,000. We also saw unemployment rate increase from 3.8 to 3.9%. So both these data points were in red. So that means this is going to typically function as a bearish catalyst for the dollar index, which is what happened. And similarly, you can click on the folder icon here, and you can click on latest release. It takes you to that respective website as well. So the agency that covers non-far payrolls is the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So it takes you to that website itself. You get a wall of text. We don't have time to read a wall of text, right? So all this stuff can be summarized quite easily. You can also see the PDF version of the news release, and you can also see the charts as well. So if we click on the PDF version of the news release, you get the press release for that month. So you can quickly see that right total non-form increased by only 150,000, unemployment rate increased a little bit as well to 3.9%. And you can see where the most job gains occurred. So if you want to read more details about that particular data point, you can do so very easily on Forex Factory by clicking on the folder icon and then clicking on latest release, right? And then simply for the charts, you're able to see how the unemployment rate has been trending or performing over the last 20 years. You can also see how the non-far payroll actually has been rising as well. So you just need to look at total non-farm here. So employment by industry, click total non-farm, and you can see how non-farm after crashing during the COVID lockdowns, you can see how the job market has bounced back relatively strongly. Most of the time the news is against the dollar, yet the dollar rises strongly. It depends. Actually, if you see the bearish news, the catalyst is it has actually functioned as a bearish. Okay, you would see the pullbacks occur, but because the Federal Reserve over the past few weeks has been quite hawkish as well because any pullbacks then get bounced up again. But what we've seen in the most recent FOMC meeting which was last week, last Thursday, when you look at the statement, read the statement and you look at the press conference, you can clearly see there's a shift in the outlook from Chairman Powell and his fellow FOMC members. They've definitely become less hawkish. They're employing a more neutral outlook which is why when you look at the dollar index now, you can see that trend has completely changed, right? So if you look at price action since middle of July, of course, along the way there were bearish catalysts from a fundamental data point of views, but these actually were just pullbacks along the way because the Fed during this period was still very hawkish, right? It's all about the outlook from the Federal Reserve as well along with the combination of the fundamental data. But now we're clearly seeing the shift. Last week on Thursday, we had FOMC meeting which turned out to be somewhat neutral, right? Some would even argue it was dovish. So that is why we saw Thursday markets, the dollar index fall strongly as well. Similarly, on Friday, you had a very weak labor, okay, I wouldn't say very weak, but you had a weaker than expected labor market report where unemployment rate went higher and FPs had quite a big miss. And that is why you saw the sell-off in the dollar accelerate as well. This time, you can see that the trend has clearly been broken, right? This trend line was clearly broken here in mid-October, then price consolidated for a while. And then you can see the first support that was identified last week here. I'm on a daily timeframe. This was the first support that were identified last week was clearly broken last Friday as well. So you can see this big fundamental shift in market sentiment on the dollar index as well. So now the buyers for the dollar index is to the downside and any bearish data will continue to drive it lower. But of course, there's always just like on the way up, they're pullbacks along the way, just like on the way down, they're gonna be retracement's higher as well, right? So do take note of that, right? Okay, so going back to the slides, okay, this is how we can use Forex Factory to interpret the data and also to get access to more details if you wish to find out more about that particular economic data point, right? So this is where Forex Factory, and good thing about Forex Factory you can filter across a various periods of time. You look at it on a single day, you can even go back to last year as well and filter those dates and try and see data as well. So if you wanna look at what happened 12 to 13 of October, you can do so. You can also go back to GDP, right? Like I said, click on the folder icon, click on latest release. It takes you to that government website that's gonna have the official data as well. So that's the good thing about Forex Factory and because it's color coded, you can also see the folders are in red, orange and yellow. Red of course being the most or having the highest impact. Orange having the second most highest impact and yellow which is low. So orange is medium, red is high. And you can also see because of the color scheme here. So when you can see this GDP number, right? 12th of October last year came in at negative 0.3% which was lower than the forecast of 0%. So that means this would have typically acted as a bearish catalyst for the power. So that means the currency pair, pound dollar would have likely to have fallen following this news release, right? So that's a good thing about Forex Factory where we can easily interpret the data. We're not going into too much of the details of the actual fundamental data point, right? Okay, so now we're gonna look at some examples of swing trading. So as I said, I'll be using the dollar index because of course, once you know how the dollar index is trading, you naturally translates into all the other currency pairs and also you can use it to identify trends for gold as well. All right, so in this example, I'm using the daily timeframe. So over here, the indicators that I'm using are stochastic, the stochastic oscillator. I'm using the Ichiboku cloud and as you can see, I've identified several chart patterns as well, right? So for the Ichiboku cloud, I'm just using the standard parameters. I've not changed any of the parameters. It's just the default parameters for Ichiboku cloud. And for stochastics, I'm using the parameters of 23 and three, right? So these are the parameters that I'm using for stochastics, right? So just for those who may not be familiar, all right? So for stochastic, simply when price or when the oscillator drops below 20, usually it indicates an oversold position, but I don't use 20, the level 20. I like to see it actually drop as low as possible. So this could be what we're looking for is a relative low. So it could be five, it could be seven, it could be 10. So once the oscillator drops towards the level such as that, then price is typically oversold. Similarly, when the oscillator rises above 80, you usually signals overbought position, but I don't use the level 80. I would actually like to find the actual relative high. So as you can see, the high here is probably about 90, about there, so that's when you know that it's potentially an overbought position. Similarly for Ichiboku cloud, for those who may not be familiar, when the cloud is green, as you can see here from March of 2022, all the way till November of 2022, when the cloud is green, this indicates that this is a very strong bullish trend for the dollar index and usually any pullbacks in price is usually going to be supported by the cloud. So you can see that here taking place in June of 2022, then again here on July of 2022, price finding support above the cloud and here in September as well and August early September price finding support right at the cloud itself before bouncing higher. So this is how you can use the Ichiboku cloud to identify strong trends and where the cloud can also offer support or provide strong potential support for the bullish uptrend. Similarly, when price crosses under the bullish Ichiboku cloud, that usually signals a reversal in the trend and the cloud eventually turns bearish as well. So now the cloud is red, which indicates a strong bearish trend and usually when the cloud is bearish and price rises into the cloud, typically the cloud can act as a strong resistant zone as well, not always, but you can always act as a strong resistant zone because you can see it clearly, price clearly pushed into the cloud, but it broke above the bearish Ichiboku cloud before reversing to drop lower, right? And also you can see when I do swing trading and I use it on the daily timeframe, so I'm going to give you the examples that I do that have worked well. So you can see here when price is... This is when you also have to take into account the fundamental aspect of it as well. So this was when the Federal Reserve after March onwards, it started to raise interest rates aggressively, right? So that would signal a strong bullish move for the US dollar. So hence the dollar index is going to rise strongly. So you can see here, price was actually consolidating within this range. So this was... This is another range bound trading as well. You can see price was ranging between these two levels. And then once the rate hikes kicked off, you can see price clearly break above this horizontal level here, this overlap or this pullback resistance level here, which indicates a bullish breakout. And this is where you were able to initiate a long swing trade as well. That's similarly as price corrected in June, right? You can see price of trading within the falling wedge, right? Price trading within the falling wedge. It's approaching the cloud. As I mentioned, the bullish Ichiboku cloud usually provides strong support zone. So as price comes close to the Ichiboku cloud and we can also see the Socrastic oscillator reaching an oversold position, this is actually signaling to us potential bullish reversal for the dollar index. So what we're waiting for is the confirmation, right? So you can see the upper trend line of the wedge here and as price broke out of this wedge, we had three indicators to tell us this is a potential bullish breakout, right? We have the oscillator, stockastic oscillator indicating severe oversold position. We also see price finding support just above the bullish Ichiboku cloud and we see price breaking out of this falling wedge. So that signals the next move up long swing trade. Similarly here, similarly here, you can see price forming a triangle. In this case, this is a descending triangle here, falling triangle, but in this case, price actually broke up to the upside, right? Remember the other example, we saw price break lower. So in this scenario of this ascending triangle, descending triangle here, price found support slightly above the Ichiboku cloud and with price breaking above this descending trend line and also with stockastic turning higher here. So in this gives us a signal, especially with the breakout of this descending trend line here, especially with this breakout here and price finding support about the Ichiboku cloud. This gives us quite a strong confidence level that this is a bullish breakout to the upside again. Similarly in August, July, August, as price was pulling back, in this falling wedge, once again, stockastics begins to show very oversold position. We also see price finding strong support right at the edge of the bullish cloud and as price breaks above the upper trend line of the falling wedge, we get the next move up. So this is another long bullish breakout as well. Similarly here, on the downtrend, when price broke underneath the bearish Ichiboku cloud to signal a potential reversal, price actually started to fade lower. You can see here within this falling wedge, there are also rising wedges as well. You can see there's one rising wedge here, another one here, another one here. Now on the downside, it was a little bit more difficult because you didn't have the stockastics to help you identify the overbought positions. But if you had looked at the chart patterns on the daily timeframe, we'll be able to see these sorts of rising wedge here, another rising wedge, another rising wedge and the breakout of this wedge would help initiate a bearish breakout. So you can see here to the downside, the moves were definitely not as big as the moves to the upside, right? So the moves to the upside were definitely much longer, much bigger in terms of absolute returns and percentage returns. But for the downside, you could see the moves, although dollar index went from about 107.40 to as low as 100, right? It lost over 700 pips, you can see that. But for the breakouts, they were not as deep each time, they was actually relatively strong with tracements along the way, right? And then similarly, once price started making lower lows and higher lows, you could also see a falling wedge being formed. And then when stochastic strongly rises up like this and you also see price breaking above the upper trend line and finding support, this also would signal a potential bullish breakout as well. Right, and then this is now for 2023, right? So, okay, another thing I would like to mention here because in October, November, this was the period where the Bank of Japan intervened in the open market, right? In the open currency market. So this means this is an FX, this was an foreign exchange intervention, right? As I mentioned earlier, interventions are very important. This was reported widely by all media, right? You don't need any special subscription services to tell you that BOJ intervention had taken place. This was covered by all of the major financial news outlets and even your local news outlets as well. So when you have an intervention by the Bank of Japan, they're actually selling the US dollar of new technology before that. The Bank of Japan is one of the central banks that has the highest holdings of foreign reserves. So their foreign reserve consists mostly of the US dollar and US treasuries. So they're one of the largest holders of foreign reserves. So when they want to intervene in the open market, they will be selling the US dollar that they hold, they'll be selling the treasuries that they hold and they'll be using the sales proceeds to buy back the Japanese yen in the open currency market. So when they're buying back the Japanese yen, they're actually increasing the value of the Japanese yen. And because they're also selling the US dollar aggressively, this is why you saw the US dollar actually reverse costs in the last quarter of 2022, even though during this period, the Federal Reserve was still raising interest rates. So this is a very important aspect to take note of because the intervention measures by a strong central bank such as Bank of Japan can be very impactful. So during this period in the last quarter of 2022, the Federal Reserve was still raising interest rates, but the dollar wasn't actually climbing higher, right? The dollar wasn't actually climbing higher and part of that was due to the intervention by the Bank of Japan. And this intervention was suspected to have concluded towards the end of January and Feb, right? There was no official announcement to say that the intervention measures had stopped, but that's when it did. And you could see market forces come back into play because during this period, 2023, the Federal Reserve was still more hawkish than the rest of the other central banks. So that's when demand for the dollar started to pick up again. So it's important to note this sort of policy actions by major central banks because they can really have an impact on the currency markets is what we've seen here. Okay, so similarly here, we're using in this example, using the combination of falling wedges, oversold stochastics and breakouts of the falling wedges as well, right? Here also you see a descending trend line. You also see stochastics highlighting oversold positions here. You see price breaking out of the falling wedge, price breaking out of the descending trend line to go higher, right? Okay, the next example I'll be showing you would be for the S&P 500, right? So for those who trade indices as well, this is a good strategy to use. But once again, this is on the daily timeframe and I'm using the S&P 500. So this is an instrument that tracks S&P 500 futures. For this example or this strategy, I'm using Bollinger Bands. So no changes to the parameter settings for the Bollinger Bands. I'm just using the default settings for the Bollinger Bands. Stochastic is once again, I'm using 23.3, right? For this moving average and for the smoothing parameters, I'm just using 23.3. And so in this example, we're using it, we're using the Bollinger Bands, we're using Stochastics and I'm also using the Volatility Index. So this is the VIX. For those who may be familiar with it, the VIX is a measure of the implied volatility in the equity markets based on options, right? Based on options pricing. So we're not going into too much detail. So what is important to note that if the VIX is rising very strongly and it reaches past a particular threshold a particular level, it would mean that equity markets are selling off strongly and as the VIX peaks and starts to recede and fall back to drop lower, that usually signals potential short term bottom for the index. So in this case, because the VIX is measuring the options pricing or the implied volatility of the S&P 500, naturally we would use it with the S&P 500. So what I'm trying to highlight here is we are able to see when the VIX crosses the threshold of 30, when it crosses the threshold of 30, it usually means that we are approaching a potential market bottom, right? So we're going to use the combination of the VIX going past 30, looking at price pushing against the lower bound of the Bollinger Band and we're also using Stochastic to identify a major potential oversold position. So once all these three line up here, the probability of a short term bounce is quite high. So as you can see, as the VIX retreats down here, Stochastic starts to move up and price starts to move away from the lower bound of the Bollinger Band price. Usually you can see this is a short term bounce. In this scenario here in February of 2022, this bounce wasn't as significant as the other bounces highlighted by the vertical line. So back here in early March, similarly you can see VIX being elevated for about a week or two and as VIX starts to retreat lower, we can also see Stochastic moving up higher. That's when you can also see price moving up here. So this is another way to identify another swing, swing low here to identify a potential bullish swing position, swing opportunity here. Now this strategy works better for identifying the potential bottom rather than the absolute top. So and also it's not foolproof every time as well. It gives you a better opportunity to identify it. But as you can see here, as in May, we did see VIX being elevated, but actually price continued to go lower as well. It was only in June or end of May onwards when the reversal actually came. So do take note that it is not a guaranteed strategy to identify potential market bottoms, but it does work pretty well. So similarly here in June or towards the end of May, early June, you can see Stochastic start to rise up. You can also see price bouncing off the lower bound of the Bollinger band to move higher and VIX is also retreating. So it gives you another opportunity to go along on the S&P 500. Then similarly here in the middle of June, once again, you can see VIX crossing over 30, Stochastic showing oversold position, Bollinger band pushing against the lower bound and price pushing against the lower bound of the Bollinger band before bouncing off this. So again, identifying another short term bounce for the S&P 500. So you can see that again in October, or sorry, rather in August, or sorry, in September, early October as well. Price pretty much formed a double bottom here. VIX also formed a double top and as VIX retreated, Stochastic started to rise. We were able to identify another bullish bounce for the S&P 500. Right, and then coming into 2023. So you can see here in the end of December as well, there was another, although in this scenario, VIX did not go over 30. You can see the threshold here is 30. VIX did not cross 30 here, but in this case, we did still see price make a new price form a bottom here and make an after that bounce higher. So in this case, we use Stochastics and we can see price bouncing off the support level, not breaking below the low Bollinger band to climb higher. But what we saw in March, right, with Stochastics indicating oversold position, VIX touching 30. Yes, in this case, it didn't rise above 30, but it did touch 30. But you have all the other indicators to help us identify a potential bullish opportunity for the S&P 500. Then similarly in May and August, although you can see VIX did not come up as close to anywhere to 30, but looking at how Stochastic reversed and how price bounced off the lower Bollinger band, you can see here price made a double bottom as well before bouncing higher. Stochastics also indicating oversold before going higher. Similarly here, you can see price sort of forming another double bottom before bouncing a little bit higher as well. So this is a strategy that I like to use for the S&P 500 to identify potential swing longs on the daily timeframe. Now, of course, you can use this on a daily timeframe to identify the swing longs and of course you can zoom in onto the lower timeframes as well. You can probably go down into the four hour timeframe or one hour timeframe to identify or fine-tune your entry positions as well. All right, okay. Right, so we've come towards the end of today's webinar. If there's anything you would like me to cover or repeat or go through as well, I'll be more than happy to go through it with you. All right, hi Jamil, all right, thank you for the kind words, all right, thank you. All right, so just before we end, are there any questions or would you like me to clarify any point with regards to the strategy or to how to interpret the fundamental data, summary on swing trade? Okay, right, right. Okay, so we can do a quick summary as well. All right, sure. Okay, so as you know, swing trading is a strategy that is used to capture medium term, movements, a medium term holding period. So you're looking for significant swing lows and significant swing highs to capture the long swing trade and the short swing trade. And of course, generally it takes up less time but you're not actively trading on a daily basis. And also might also do take note of some of the cons that you could have with holding positions overnight as well as holding positions over the weekend as well. Okay, the vertical lines of the SAP 500, those are lines that I've identified as potential market bottoms, right? Potential market, but by using the combination of the oversold stochastic, using the VIX, going as high as 30 and with price pushing on the lower bound of the Bollinger band. All right, okay, what timeframe? Okay, this is based on your personal strategy because I'm more of a swing trader so I would use the four hour timeframe and daily timeframe. But if you are intraday trader, then you can obviously use the one minute, five minute, 15 minute timeframe. What's more important is to be able to identify chart patterns and to use the technical indicators such as stochastics or Ichimoku Cloud or moving averages and to understand them properly and then implement it for the strategy that you're more comfortable with. There's no point trying to implement a swing trading strategy. It doesn't suit your style. If you're more of an intraday trader, then definitely look for the intraday strategies and the relevant indicators that would help you get better and that type of trading, all right? Okay, and then, okay, typical indicators are moving averages, Bollinger Bands, Stochastics, Relative Strength Index. As you can see, I've used a combination of Bollinger Bands, Stochastic Oscillator. I didn't use the RSI. Of course, you can also implement the RSI in your analysis as well. Just because I've not used it doesn't mean you can't do it either. The strategies that I use here or the analysis that I do involves mostly moving averages, Bollinger Bands, Stochastics and the Ichimoku Cloud as well, right? It's also important to recognize chart pattern, especially the falling wedges, right? Falling wedges and rising wedges really help us to identify potential bearish and bullish breakouts, right? So quick summary, right? So uptrend, a rising wedge in an uptrend typically signals a bearish breakout. Falling wedge in a falling market typically signals a bullish breakout. Penance, you can have penance or symmetrical triangles breaking out to the upside or downside, it's either way. You serve rising triangle, falling triangles, head and shoulders, inverse head and shoulders. And of course we looked at forex factory and how to easily interpret the data as well. We are having to go into the details of each particular economic data point and how we can also access the actual website or the relevant government agency by clicking on the folder icon should we wish to find out more info about that particular data point. All right, thank you everyone for the kind words. And okay, I think I did say about YouTube, right? I think some people wanted to see where we can get, which is the website for TickMeal. All right, so just let me get that for you guys as well. YouTube, right, okay. So if you go here, TickMeal global videos, right? I'll put this in the chat box as well. Oops, I go in there. Right, so this is the links that we go here. You click on videos, you click on live as well. You could see past webinars being uploaded as well. So you can see non-found payrolls was updated two days ago, risk management two days ago, fundamental analysis as well, two days ago, and so on and so forth, right? So you can look at it here as well, right? So all the past webinars are recorded, sorry, are recorded and uploaded onto the TickMeal, TickMeal's YouTube page. And of course, you can re-watch any of these videos at your own leisure as well. All right, okay. What can you say about dollar index moving in opposite to its currency pay? Okay, so basically just to summarize, right? So if, okay, so just to summarize, if the, oops. But there you go on a minute. So if the dollar index DXY, right, is rising, right? So that means currency pairs such as the Euro, the pound, right, the Aussie and the Kiwi all would be falling, right? And it means that currency pairs such as dollar Yen, dollar Ken and dollar Frank would be rising, right? This is how we can interpret it as well. So similarly, if dollar index is falling, that means currency pairs such as the Euro, the pound, the Aussie and Kiwi will be rising. And currency pairs such as dollar Yen, dollar Ken, dollar Frank will be falling, all right? Thanks everyone for tuning in today. Hope this has been a great session for all of you. Do take note, we do have a central bank interested announcement coming up tomorrow, which is by the RBA, the Reserve Bank of Australia. They're expected to raise their cash rate. So this could potentially function as a bullish catalyst for the Aussie dollar tomorrow, right? So that's at 3.30 a.m. GMT time. So do take a note, do look out for that event and do take note how it could potentially impact any of your positions should you be trading around that time, all right? Thank you everyone, thank you and have a great trading week. All right, I'm sorry, I'm just gonna launch a poll as well, it will be truly appreciated if you can give me, give your feedback as well because we're always working to improve our webinars being a educational session or live trading session, right? We're always looking for responses back from you guys so that we can always try and push out new content or improve our current content as well. All right, so thanks everyone for tuning in today. Have a great trading week and do look out for the RBA cash rate announcement tomorrow. 3.30 a.m. GMT time if I'm not mistaken, right? It's potentially gonna be a bullish catalyst for the Aussie dollar tomorrow. All right, take care everyone, thank you.