 response to the heat source is in various different positions, but I'm only going to be in 1 minute. Very important, so it's a really important mix. That doesn't matter. This is not part of it. Alright, alright, thanks. Well, should I start again then? So, heat source is moving around in 40 days. So, let's just wait till the beginning of a run and see why. So, initially, there it comes. Yeah, there it starts. You see a very fast carbon wave going out in front of it. It goes around in about 10 days, catches up with it, and then when it's over the Pacific, you see the extra tropical response over Pacific North America. And then it comes around again, and that response is reinforced again. So, yeah, that's the kind of thing you can do. So, I'm just showing you that just to say that for people who are interested, we can put together experiments like this this afternoon. So, I'm going to just say if there's a small group of people who are interested in doing this, I'll have a little session at the beginning of the afternoon to show you how this model works. So, I mean, I'm poaching Anna Caroline's time here, so just if there's any question, you know, really quick, and then I'm going to just sit down and shut up. Anyone? Yeah. Okay, good. I've got one person interested. That's all I need. All right, everything is. Yeah, yeah. I think this one. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Good morning. First of all, thank you for the attention and thanks for Fred and Dr. David Strauss for the invitation to be here today. My name is Anna Caroline. I'm from Brazil, University of Sao Paulo. I'm going to go presenting you influence of isotropical disturbance on the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone. This is the structure of my presentation. First of all, the motivation, introduction, objective data. Then we developed a multivariate index for the Atlantic ITCC. From now, I will call it AITCC for the Atlantic ITCC. The variability of the AITCC on interseasonal time scales for austral summer and for austral winter also. The relationship with the MGO and conclusions. This is an article that we published in Climate Bend X in 2016. Here I have the reference if you want to see it after. This article has the results that I present to you now. Then this is a map for the population density for 2015. Then as you can see, the most populated areas are concentrated in the tropics as in Africa and South America. And this area is the region where ITCC acts. The range of related and associated with ITCC is important for agriculture and other kind of activities. For example, for the northern Brazil, we have more than 55 million inhabitants. And the GDP is 13% of the country for Brazil. And this is a relatively poor region in the country. Then rainfall events are very important for this region, for agriculture, and also some dry periods related to the anomalous position of the ITCC in the north. Then the Atlantic ITCC impacts also the Sahel region, where we have more than 200 million undernourished people. And this is more than one third of the total undernourished people in the world. Then, as I said, in Africa the rainfall in this region is very important for the agriculture activities. And we have also some floods related to rainy periods in northeastern Brazil or dry periods when ITCC is located anomalously in the northern hemisphere. Then this region also is a region of some traffic between northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere, maritime traffic and air also. Then, based on this motivation, we studied the Atlantic ITCC specifically. These are the circulation cells, the patterns of the circulation of the world. Then here we have the ITCC, where we have the confluences of the trade winds, the trade winds that comes from the tropical highs. And then, if you look at a satellite image, this is the band that's related to the ITCC. This very strong convective band. Then here we have the Atlantic ITCC. Some variables define the ITCC. The first one is the trade wind confluence. The second is the equatorial trough. The ITCC is related to the maximum SST region, to the maximum mesh convergence and the maximum convective cloud cover band. All these variables can define the ITCC. However, they are not located at the same latitude. Then this is the evolution of the range. This is a precipitation field from Trin. This is an evolution through the year, from January to December. The annual cycle of the ITCC is the most important cycle of the convergence zone, as you can see. In September and October and August, the ITCC is in the northernmost position during February, March and May. The ITCC is located in this southernmost position, then affecting the northeast Brazil or affecting the Sahel region. However, the annual cycle is the most important cycle of the ITCC. ITCC has a variability in a broad range of time scales. From the diurnal, related to the diurnal cycle, up to the caudal, to multidecadal oscillations. In the diurnal scale, the variability is related to the diurnal cycle of the convection. In the synoptic scale, the ITCC is motivated by the easterly waves from Africa that has variability between 1 and 10 days. In interest in on-time scale, it's mostly the major part of the variability related to the MJO, that's the focus of this work. And also have the reliability in semi-annual and annual scales. And in interannual scales, also related to the only southern oscillation and gradient between the CSST in the northern Atlantic and southern Atlantic. And also in the caudal-time scales that can be related to AMO and PDO. Well, our focus here is for interest in on-time scales. Then we have some works that, if density, the variability of the ITCC in the interest in on-time scales, but we have so few works on this scale. Then, first of all, UwUv and Novry showed that the interest in oscillations appeared to influence the longitudinal position of the ITCC and it has variability in a scale of 10 up to 20 days. The source showed that the ITCC is the main mechanism associated with the rainfall in the northern Brazil in eastern Amazon in a time scale of 10 up to 30 days. And these works here showed a zone of precipitation seesaw in the Atlantic region, the equatorial-Atlantic region. On a time scale, this seesaw variating on a time scale of then up to 15 days. They say in the article, they call this as a quasi-b-weekly dipole, zonal dipole. Then, as you can see, the variability of the ITCC in on-interest and on-time scales occur in between 10 and 30 days. Then, the objective of this work is during austral summer, I will consider here austral summer for the period of November up to March. And for austral winter, I will consider May up to September. During these two periods, what are the atmospheric mechanisms and tropical-to-tropical-teleconnection patterns associated with the AITCC, interest in variability and the relationship between this variability and the MJO activity. Then, the data used here were from CFS, our reanalysis. They are outgoing long-wave radiation from LOA, and the study period is 32 years, from 1979 up to 2010. Then, first of all, we propose here a multivariate index to analyze the variability to the Atlansky ITCC. From now, this index, I will use ITCCI, I from index. Then, this index is based on the first combined EOS, empirical orthogonal functions for three variables, precipitation, zonal wind and meridional wind in low levels. A combined EOF of these three variables for this domain here, for Atlansky, and the time coefficient of this EOF will be the index. This index is spent on anomalies of the variables, and the anomalies has annual cycle and long-term trend removed and the explained variance for the first mode is 10%. Then, these are the special patterns of the combined EOF first mode. Then, we have here the Pearson correlation between the precipitation field and the time coefficient of the EOF, the index. This first mode shows an intensification of precipitation represented by positive values here related to convergence here of the zonal wind in low levels and have negative values that represent easterlies intensification of the trade winds then, and here related with also positive values of meridional wind and intensification of south turkeys. Then, we have intensification of the trade winds related to the climatological position of the ITCC which is five degrees north. Then, we can see that the special pattern is represented by the index for ITCC. This is the time series of the EOF. This is the temporal characteristics of the index. This is just an example for years of this series. And here, we perform the wavelet spectrum for this index and you can see significant peaks on the inter-seasonal in semi-annual and on the inter-annual time scales. Then, this index can capture the variability of the Atlantic convergence zone inter-tropical convergence zone in all those time scales. Here, the power spectrum for the index you can see here have some inter-seasonal peaks if we zoom the region of inter-seasonal peaks, we have a significant peak between 15 and 20 days. Then, the index captures the inter-seasonal variability of the ITCC. Then, you can use this index to represent and to study the the ITCC's inter-seasonal variability. Here in blue have the index the original index. Then, in red, we have the future index. We filtered using a fast Fourier transform in the band from 10 up to 70 days. Then, in red have the future index. From now, I use only the future index, then the future in the inter-seasonal band and you filtered also the variables. Here, using the positive values, the general values of the index for summer and separated for the winter we will perform composites and you have intense ITCC events. When the ITCC is intensified, the convection is intensified and if you use the lower quartile here and make composites, like composites you see that when the ITCC is weakened. I mean this pattern here. Postive values if you have negative values of the combined EOF you have a post signal for all the fields. Here, I present you the composites, then the inter-seasonal variability of the ITCC then first for austral summer from November to March I will present you all the intense events and the weak events are almost the same but with the post signal. Then the first panel here have the compost for the OLR and wind in low levels here meridional wind in upper levels here geopotential high in upper levels and wind in low levels and here wind in upper levels. This is a compost for the leg-minus and one painted before the event where you see the painted before the event, the painted of the event and one painted after the event. Then we can see the intensification of the trade winds in the African area in this first composite and some centers of action in the northern sphere. Anticyclons and cyclons, then resembles a rose wave here. Then here in the meridional wind composites we can see some a wave trend that is propagating toward Eurasia in another part that is propagating toward a tropical Atlantic. Then here I put the T to represent troughs and R to represent ridges. Then you can see that we have ridges aligned with anti-cyclonic circulations in low levels and we have troughs aligned with cyclonic circulations in low levels also. Then here for the upper levels we can see an anti-cyclonic circulation in their in low levels again anti-cyclonic circulation. Then this is a very tropical structure that is very characteristic for a rose wave trend. And here this intensification of the trade winds is promoted by this anti-cyclonic circulation over Africa and also here you can see an intensification of the sub-tropical high, north Atlantic sub-tropical high. Then for the leg of the event you can see here in this region you have negative anomalies of OLR then we have intensification of the convection in the western Atlantic tropical Atlantic where I put the cloud here and where I put the sun we have suppression, positive values of OLR. They have intensification usually anomalies intensification of the trade winds related to the convergence of the trade winds and intensification of the convection. In low levels you can see some centers of the action yet we have a pair of cyclones here in Africa and in Atlantic. They are favoring the intensification of the trade winds in Africa in this case. Here have two paths of propagation, one to range and the other one towards the Atlantic. The shaded areas are significant, statistically significant areas for the composite. And here is very interesting you have a divergence of the meridional component of the wind. This divergence is promoting intensification of the convection in the ITCZ area. Then we have transition from barotropic structure into baroclinic structure near to the equator. I have also the structure of the wave trend, the northern and the pair of cyclones here also in the Africa and over Atlantic ocean, eastern Atlantic. Here you can see a duct, a westerly duct in upper levels. As G et al 2014 showed these westerly duct favors an inter-armospheric propagation of trade winds. Then for the next leg we can see that's very clear we have an inter-armospheric propagation from the wave trend from northern sphere towards the southern hemisphere. Then you have yet some intensification of the convection in ITCZ but in the western Pacific, sorry western Atlantic. Here also a cyclone circulation near the weakening of the trade winds as you are in the leg plus one after the event after the intensification of the ITCZ. Here as I said you have an inter-armospheric propagation and a part of the wave trend that's propagating towards the Eurasia sorry and here we have an evidence also of the inter-armospheric propagation across the ridge in the opposed from the wave trend and here yet the westerly duct in the upper levels. Then as you can see for summer we have a propagation in the winter hemisphere also summer but the propagation occur in the winter hemisphere where we have the wave guys the more intense wave guys. Then for the also winter October September this is the compost again for intense events but for a leg mine one and have again almost the same mechanism intensification of the trade winds in the Africa area but now we can see some action centers in the southern hemisphere there are samples on wave and also in the rose blue wave we can also see these characteristic in the olyer compost here then if you look at the meridional wind this is a structure of the sample that's very similar to Pacific south America first mode in the positive phase then have here the PSA1 Here in this field, you can see the radius aligned in the vertical with anti-cyclonic circulations in the low light, it's not working, okay. And here we have troughs aligned with the cyclonic. When the wave trend is propagating towards the equator, it gains a very clean structure with a tilt to the west, with the high. Then here we have the centers of action in the upper levels also. This is for like zero during the event, okay. We have intensification of the convection in the ITC-Z, represented by the index, represented by the first combined EOF, are presented in the beginning of the presentation, associated with the intensification of the treatments. Look at here, our focus is on isotropical disturbance, not in cable waves. We are not focused in Kelvin waves. You are focused in the isotropical disturbances. Then here you have the centers of actions again, action again, and here an intensification of the softness length should be tropical high, promoted by the wave trend. There resembles the PSA. Here in the meridional index, very clear, again and here, and upper and low levels again. Then this is a equivalent perotropic structure that is a rasble wave. And for the lagging after the event, we have yet some intensification of the convection. And here in the South America have a cyclone circulation associated with negative anomalies of OLR, then the wave trend propagating in the southern hemisphere. Yet we have here the wave trend and the atroff aligned with cyclone circulation, low levels and upper levels. Then for the winter composites, we didn't see an intermospheric propagation as we saw for the summer. Then we investigated the ratios with the MJO. For this, use an index that can divide the propagation of the MJO in eight phases. And first of all, some observation is that not all the intracisional activity is necessarily linked to MJO. We have a part of intracisional variability that is not related to MJO. Then for this investigation, we used an ABJO phase index from Jones. And for this index, they perform a combined EOF, first and second mode for these variables here. They use an INEO socket removed for this band. They filter in this band to empty up to 200 days for this region, tropical region. Then this is just to show you how things, I think everybody knows this, but for phases zero is negative, MJO and the other phases represent the propagation of the MJO. For example, phase two here have intensification of the convective activity and related it to the convergence of the zonal end. Then in the upper panels here, we see an aesthetic of the intensification and weakening of the ITCZ. And for during MJO events and during inactive phase of the MJO. The black column is for intense events and the gray is for weak events. Then we can see they have more events occurring during the MJO activity. But we have some events for summer and winter that occur during the inactive phase of the MJO. Here is an aesthetic for summer, for each phase of the MJO. Then we separated all the events, the intensification events and weakening events of the ATV and KTCZ, but for each phase of the MJO, when the MJO is active. Then you see a clear pattern. We have more intensification events here in black columns. We have more intensification of the ATCZ between phase four and seven. And we have more events of weakening of the ATCZ between phase eight and three. These dots here represent where we have statistically significant differences between the proportions. And here for the winter, there are more weak events during the phases. One up to four and there are more intense events between phase five and eight. Then this is a very clear pattern. Then the conclusion for this is the index we proposed in the beginning, the ITCZI is a new framework able to capture a special temporal variability of the ITCZ on several time scales, but here we focus it in the interest zone one. The mechanisms associated with the ATCZ interest zone of our ability are related to variations in North Atlantic sub-tropical high and in North Atlantic sub-tropical high. Then these variations promote chance in the trade winds and then chance in the ITCZ. The dynamic forcing is our Rosmuev trains in the winter hemisphere. The majority of the ITCZ interest zone events occurred during the active AIM J-O. The intensification of the ATCZ occurred during the, when the convection is in the western Pacific and suppression is in the Indian Ocean, Africa. This is the phase of M-J-O I'm presenting here. This work gives evidence of M-J-O indirect effects via esturopics over tropical Atlantic. This work evidence that we have some esturopical forcing that forces tropical convection. And this can help better understanding about atmospheric mechanisms that explain the interest zone of our ability in the tropical Atlantic. And this is a contribution to advance weather and climate for passing four low-latitudes. Then here we have a summary of the results for the ultra-summer. Then we have M-J-O phase between eight and three with convection here and suppression in red color. Then have triggering of our wave trend and intensification of the North Atlantic sub-tropical high intensification of the trade winds in the Atlantic region and then intensification of this pattern that's represented by the combined EOF and suppression here in these both areas. For the austral winter, we have convection over Indonesia and suppression over Indian Ocean, M-J-O between five and eight and the convection M-J-O triggers a wave trend that resembles the Pacific and South America first mode positive. And this wave frame modulates the circulation of the South Atlantic sub-tropical high and the intensification of the trade winds related to this intensification of this circulation here and intensification of the convection in tropical Atlantic and suppression over Africa. Then this is a summary for austral summer and austral winter here. For weak events in red, we have suppression of the convection and for intense events. You can see they have almost the opposite signal and here for weak events, we have PSA first mode negative phase. These are some reference and I'd like to thank Dr. Leila Carvalho and Dr. Tsongandu and Dr. Charlie Jones for the M-J-O index. He uses it here. And Dr. Dave Dentred for the notation. It's a pleasure to be here. And ITTP for the financial support and CAPS, CNPQ and CAPS for the financial support during this research. Thank you for the notation. Grazie. Thank you.