 Good day fellow investors! I recently listened to a Ray Dalio Harvard Kennedy School interview longer than an hour so I'm going to keep it short here and tell you exactly what Dalio was saying about successful investing, the markets and the economy. So let's immediately start. The first message Dalio had for Harvard students is that the consensus is built in the price of everything. So if you want to be a successful investor, not just an average investor, you have to often be a contrarian and bet against the market because the market is the consensus and it gives you the exact price. So you have to find ways to see what others don't see, however those ways imply a lot of failures, which means that if you are an audacious investor you have audacious goals, you want to beat the market, but this leads to failure and the only way to be a successful investor is okay, why did I fail? I learned my principles, write those principles down. If you can learn from other people even better, improve and then have even more audacious goals. So this is the circle of becoming a successful investor. So if you want to be a successful investor you have to constantly question what you are doing and find ways to improve because the world is constantly improving. What worked yesterday might not work tomorrow and also in life Dalio has the simple message, simple circle goals, problems, diagnosis, design and doing in order to constantly improve. What is very interesting is his story and Dalio in 1982 was betting on an economic collapse. So he was short, his firm was short and August 1982 was really the bottom of the stock market and he was short. He had to fire people, he was down to only him in his investment firm, which later became the biggest hedge fund in the world, but he also failed and that failure prompted him to always look okay, where am I wrong when I have an idea or something like that? So a good exercise to be a successful investor is to start, look at your position, okay, where am I wrong and ask yourself, find other people, other independent thinkers that can give you the perspective okay, I could be right but I could also be wrong. I see a lot of comments here on my channel, there are people who are convinced about something and being convinced about something in investing is the fastest way to lose money. Never be convinced, always look okay, this could happen, this could happen, how am I positioned in relation to the probabilities of those things happening. This has led him to constantly seek for independent thinkers with audacious goals that build onto his model of management in bridgewater meritocracy on based on principles, success, failures, tests, learnings that leads to happy employees and happy clients. What I would take out of Delio's views is that whatever investment we have, we have to think about what might be wrong then there and see what other independent thinkers think about it. Delio also gives a simple piece of advice to all investors that are a little bit afraid from the recent turmoil. So he says when you are scared you shouldn't sell, when you are not scared you should sell and do the opposite when buying. So you should buy when you are scared and sell when you are not scared, think about that. If people would do that during their lives they would be excellent investors. As for the economy, he says that we are in the late part of the cycle, the market hasn't yet recognized that because there are huge piles of cash on the sidelines that just weigh the deep, there is I heard buy the deep a million times everywhere in the last month. So everybody rushed in the market and that's why the market is let's say still high, very high in my opinion. Also companies have a lot of cash that rushing to do buybacks to protect their stock prices because everything that they have been doing according to me in the last five years has been pushing up their stock price. That's for most of companies of course. That's something we will discuss in another video. On the short position Delio has been pretty clear that you shouldn't or we shouldn't read into anything that the media says about it because it is misleading. This means that oh one he could be short Italy and all those companies in Europe that's possible. But it's very likely that that's a long short position. So he has a very long position and he offsets it with a short position. So he's balancing his risks out as a hedge fund. So we shouldn't look at that. Okay, he's short Italy. No, he's short that Italian bank but he might be short, he might be long something else which is very, very possible in the hedge fund world. And you cannot know what Delio is doing if you are not the head of Bridgewater. So it's very interesting. We have to look okay, but it could be this. It could be that always as Delio says look at various opinions. And now on the economy very simple pre-bubble stage which could turn into a bubble if there is more easing and inflation and whatever the tax bill is saying and doing. But the pre-bubble will soon turn into a bubble and then we will see a bust. And Delio says that in up to 2020 with 2020 there is a 70% 60-70% chance of a U.S. recession. That's it. So he finally gave us the number 60-70% chance of a U.S. recession. Remember that I think it's a lot can be discussed. We'll discuss that in another video. But the key is that recession is very, very likely soon and you have to be prepared. Thank you for watching. Looking forward to the comments. What is your independent thought? See you in the next video.