 I'm awfully tired of hearing realtors say just buy real estate home values only go up. You can just refinance later. Don't get trapped renting. I'm so tired of hearing that. The name of the article is the 30 year mortgage is saving the US economy or is it and right out the gates. They come with the question of why is the US housing market not crashing. The article and this gentleman just admitted that the 30 year fix is one of the reasons why the housing market in the US has done so well. And we want it to do well, ladies and gentlemen, without the fear that their mortgage rates going to go up and cause them to foreclose. Then I would to be in a situation where I don't know what my mortgage rates going to be in the next couple of years. I may not be able to afford it and I may have to move and I can't sell my house because it's not worth what I paid. That's the situation. These other countries are in that he's talking about. This ladies and gentlemen is insanity. Welcome back to real estate mindset. Today's video is going to be absolutely bonkers now. Welcome to real estate mindset. This video is going to be absolutely bonkers. So stay tuned. Data is in and the question is, is why has the housing market not crashed yet? Or really the better question is, is why has the housing market skipped negative equity growth? So the thing is, is that the real estate market has crashed. We're literally at 2008 levels when it comes to the number of transactions in the U.S. We're on track to hit 4.2, 4.3 million transactions this year and 2008 we did 4.12 million transactions. So we're literally at 2008 levels. We're not too far away from 2008 levels when it comes to the number of transactions. In my mind that's the crash. This is 2008. This is the crash ladies and gentlemen. What everybody wants to signify or talk about when they talk about crash is they want it to be about home prices. They want home prices to come down. That's what signifies a crash to people, to some people. But there's more to it. There's inventory. We're in an inventory crash. We're in a transaction crash and prices haven't suffered. Why haven't prices suffered? That's the question for me. And the question is answered very simply. After 2008 when all that happened and we had the only time in history where prices really had a significant reduction, we really had that serious correction in the real estate industry. It was because of the way that loans were allowed to be done with no documentation of income. And after 2008 the government came out and put all these regulations in place to make sure that we were protected the next time we had an incredibly, an incredible downturn of the market. And that's what we're experiencing right now. I did a poll and 40 to 50% of agents are either doing worse than last year or they're out of the business. That is significant right there. So we are in the crash. There's not going to be another crash. There's not going to be anything else to this. And the fact that we put so much regulation on mortgages has put us in a position where thank you governments, I never thought I would say that. Thank you government for coming through and protecting our equity as homeowners in America where we didn't see another 2008 again. Thank you so much for that because that's exactly what they did and they did a very good job of it because now here we are and we should be thinking our lucky stars that they did that because now we have such solid mortgages. The mortgage market is incredibly strong. People have a much higher credit scores than they had last time in 2003, four, five, six people are sitting on extremely low interest rates. Everybody knows that. That's the reason why inventory is so low. And the people that are buying right now in the sixes and 7% mortgage rate range, they're well, well, well qualified or the banks would not give them the loan, ladies and gentlemen. And so as we move forward over the next few years, I don't know how long it's going to take and we get into a lower mortgage rate environment, we're going to see this inventory problem work itself out. It's going to take a long time, but it's going to work itself out. But I'm just making note here that, you know, this guy, I don't even know his name. He's talking about why hasn't the market crashed? You mean why haven't prices come down? We are experiencing a crash and so it's a massive crash. It's to a very high magnitude, all right? So let's continue here. The thing is, guys, is I'm not just using word play here and I say that because as you guys can see here, something similar happened in 2006. In 2006, we had negative equity decline followed by six months of equity recovery similar to what's going on right now. Let's not forget from 2000, it's not really similar to what's going on right now. See this is the thing. People want to compare what's happening now to 2006, seven, eight, whatever year you want to say. And the problem is, is this is not comparable to 2006, seven, eight. To compare now to 2006, seven, eight is absolutely laughable where we were very unstable in a very unstable environment in 2006, seven, eight. And right now we're in a very, very solid foundation. And I know that the guy that did this video and a lot of people want to sit around and say, Ricky, you're absolutely wrong. We're experiencing price increases now, enjoy it while it lasts because it's just a false rally here and it's going to come back down just you wait. And you may be right. You may be right. I just don't see the data that tells me that. Now I do believe that we're getting into a place where unaffordability is becoming a problem. I think affordability is hitting, unaffordability is hitting, has to be getting close to an all time high. And I believe that right there is going to level prices out. I think we're going to see a leveling of prices not before we hit an all time high. And I don't think it's going to hit an all time high and then crash and burn and go down 10%, 20%, 30%. I don't, I don't see that at all. I see no data that shows me that, that that's the direction it's going to go in. If somebody could sit down and say, here's the data, here's why prices are going to go down and here's why it's going to happen. Then I could say, okay, I see that. So nobody has really shown that. I think there's a lot of clickbait around, it's going to crash, okay? You know, unaffordability is going to make it crash. No, I think it's going to make it level out. You know, we're talking about, you know, false rally, you know, 2006, you know, the savings, what people have saved in the bank and how much they're spending and stuff like that. All this stuff is going to level itself out. And there's just not going to be this massive crash. Why? Because we had so much cushion that was given to us by the lending regulations. It was just cushion. Whereas when we had this really incredible crash or transactions, we had a very soft landing, a very mild correction that lasted whatever, nine months. And now we've had a nice rally back to the top. And now let's continue here. Why can't we have a 2% a year appreciation from here? Why do we have to have a 20, 30% crash of prices? What's the point? Why do people want this to happen? Because you want to go and buy real estate? Okay. I get it. You want to get some good deals. That's awesome. Go out there and get good deals. But there are good deals out there now. And later on, when things are lower, if it does go down to 30% of stuff, sure, we'll all be buying. But that'll be the price then. You're still going to have to buy under those prices at that time for those good deals that you're talking about. And if you buy at market value 30% lower, sure, over the long term, you're like, oh, well, it was 30% higher. So I've got some guaranteed returns here. You don't even know that things could level out and go down from there. You don't, you don't know that. But my point is, is that why can't we have a 2% a year, 3% a year from this point right here? Wouldn't that be a healthy market? And isn't that what everyone should want for the market? A healthy market. 2009 to 2011, there was seasonal periods of price increase. As you can see here by the red arrows, home prices actually went up during 2009 to 2011 during the seasonal times of home buying. Regardless of those seasonal increases, the overall trend was a downward trajectory similar to what I believe is going on right now. Once we were out of the recession of 2009, it's not similar to what's happening right now, right? And it's, again, it's laughable to say that because he says it's a downward trend, but it's not a downward trend. We came back up and we're right back up to the same peak that we were last year. We hit an all-time high last year in June. And June was the month that prices started to decline. Redfin today, yesterday actually noticed that we're at 0%. We're literally called up to last year's prices in July yesterday, according to Redfin, which is probably a couple of weeks lag. So we're probably higher than that right this second. We're probably closer to catching up with June of last year, which was our all-time high, but it's not a downward trend. A downward trend would mean that the next peak is lower than the last peak, but that's not true. The last peak is the same as the current peak, right? And we don't know where we're going to peak out. We may peak out higher this year than we did last year, which is what I think is going to happen based on real data. So no, what he's saying here is false. It's not a downward trend, like you see that he's illustrating here back in the 2006, seven, eight, nine range. It took roughly three years for home values to even rebound. I'm awfully tired of hearing realtors say just by real estate, home values only go up. You can just refinance later. Don't get trapped renting. I'm so tired of hearing that. And most of the realtors on YouTube are lead generating platforms and nothing more. So I'm a real estate agent. I'm a real estate YouTuber, real estate agent. And this is not a lead generating platform. I don't generate leads for buyers and sellers whatsoever on my platform at all. This is more so for real estate agents, real estate investors, people who actually want the truth about real estate. That's what I'm here. I'm here to be the voice and reason of real data and the truth behind what's really happening outside of what I like to refer to as the crash brothers. Bloomberg does have a good angle about interest rates and what they're going to do in this article is really compare what's going on in the United States, compared to the rest of the world, who is definitely on the struggle bus and their housing markets are absolutely crashing right now. The name of the article is the 30 year mortgage is saving the U.S. economy or is it and right out the gates, they come with the question. Why is the U.S. housing market not crashing? Interest rates are up, which means more expensive mortgages, which should push down demand. House prices are already falling in other countries by nearly 9% in Canada and 16% in New Zealand. A map from UBS shows that worldwide many urban housing markets are bubble territory. Now, their next paragraph is pretty bold, but in the U.S. prices have barely budged. The explanation is straightforward, if not exactly simple. The 30 year mortgage, it is a financial product that should not exist. Again, in their words, a 30 year mortgage is a product that should not exist. And it may well be the only thing keeping the U.S. housing market from collapsing right now. Isn't that a good thing? Isn't that a good thing that that the 30 year fixed mortgage is keeping the American housing market from collapsing? That's a good thing. I would think not a bad thing. And what it goes on to say is that these other countries are experiencing a much worse downturn than we are, because they live on more of an adjustable rate mortgage. And what they go on to say is that, you know, with the fixed mortgage, it kind of locks people in. If they have lower rates and rates go up, then inventory goes down and prices go up. And that's what we're experiencing right this second. But the upside to that is the fact that people have houses and they're living somewhere as opposed to having an adjustable rate and now having to pay more, they would have to pay more right now. Their mortgage rates would go up if we're living in one of these other countries with more of an adjustable rate system. We would have to our mortgage payments would go up and then we won't be able to afford our house. And then we would get into some serious foreclosure situations because if we're one of these countries, prices are way down. And now we don't have as much equity as we have in the US to work with. If we wanted to sell that property, if we've become into default, like if somebody becomes into default right this second in the US, they can just sell their house. You know, there's a lot of equity out there, but in these other countries that are down a whole lot price wise, it's literally because of their mortgage situation, the fact that it's adjustable rates and people's mortgage payments go up more than they can afford and now they're in trouble and then they can't sell it because prices are down. So why in the world wouldn't we want the 30 year fix? Like you got to outweigh the pros and the cons here behind having a 30 year fix. And for me, I mean, the article and this gentleman just admitted that the 30 year fix is one of the reasons why the housing market in the US has done so well. Don't we want it to do well, ladies and gentlemen, if it locks some people in because mortgage rates goes up, that's kind of the cons of it. That's there's going to be negatives to everything, but I would rather prices stay solid and I would rather have a solid system and people who are in houses and living there without the fear that their mortgage rates going to go up and cause them to foreclose. Then I would to be in a situation where I don't know what my mortgage rates going to be in the next couple of years. I may not be able to afford it and I may have to move and I can't sell my house because it's not worth what I paid. That's the situation these other countries are in that he's talking about this, ladies and gentlemen, is insanity. All right, so let's let's carry on here. This is very intriguing because they're not saying low interest rates. They're saying 30 year fixed rate mortgages. Intriguing the risk of a housing crash is not only that people could lose their homes and much of their wealth as they did in 2008. It's that it could cause a deep recession as the great recession showed a recession brought on by the fall and house prices can be especially severe since housing tends to be the largest component of household wealth. New Zealand is already in recession and there are concerns that that housing market will cause more economic turmoil in the UK. So there you go right there, ladies and gentlemen, the UK there is already in a state of turmoil and they expect more. So is this gentleman suggesting that we go to their standards of how they operate? I I I seriously hope that's not what he's saying. And really, it is no question that US home prices have already fallen. But have they fallen enough for us to consider it a crash in prices? Not quite yet. Not at all. And if you look at this chart, you can see we're number two there with the second lowest year over year numbers for as prices go. And these other countries he's talking about that's so great that we should be over there. That's where they are right here. Their prices have just went down, down, down. Right. Let's have a solid, a solid housing market. Let's not have one that's very volatile. It's what it sounds like this gentleman would love to have. Very intriguing data right here. Prices are falling almost everywhere, but among wealthy countries, America's decline has been more gentle. And that's because of the rebound this shared dead cat bounce. Call it whatever you want. Very interesting to see that New Zealand is down 16.3 percent. Denmark down 14, Korea 12, Sweden 11. The entire world is in pretty bad shape. Now, according to this, the United States is only down 0.5 percent. Now, I wouldn't consider a loss of value of 0.5 percent. A housing market crash. But what they're trying to say here is all of these other countries do not have a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. Most of the homeowners here have actually adjustable rate mortgages. So their interest rates adjust essentially with inflation. Pretty wild to think about, actually, even as prices for other things are going. Yeah, it is pretty wild to think about my guy that your rate, your mortgage payment could just fluctuate with inflation. Think about how horrible that would be. And it's the proof is right there in the chart that he just showed. But anyway, guys, I just wanted to share with you my reaction of a couple of comments in this video. We would watch the rest, but honestly, it's a little hard to watch. The bottom line here is that we haven't crashed and I don't see how we're going to crash. I can see how prices are going to level out, but to go down, I don't see it. In the meantime, the real crash is happening. And it's called transactions and it's called inventory. And that's what's causing all this stuff. But honestly, as we move forward here, everything's going to be OK. Everything's going to be OK. I'm buying houses every month. So just so you know, I'm not a real estate agent out here saying, you know, go buy, it's a great time to buy. It's awesome. No, I'm buying houses. I bought one last month. I'm closing on one in two weeks. I have one set to close the month after that. I have two set to close in September. So I'm buying houses myself as investments. And I hope that you're doing the same thing. If prices crumble and burn, guess what? I'm going to buy more houses. If prices go up, guess what? I'm going to buy more houses. So that's the game that I'm playing by real estate, hold real estate and build that portfolio. I hope this helped you in some form or fashion with my mindset, hoping I can take this and implant that into your brain. And I hope you have an incredible rest of your day. Let me know if you have any questions in the comments and we'll see you on the next video. Let's go.