 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network It is a double-header night for Monday night football. We have got the Titans at the bills We have got the Vikings at the Eagles. We're gonna break down both those games Get you set for should be a fantastic night of Monday night football from a betting perspective welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire comm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire com joined here as I am each Monday by Orion Williams checking out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan got a question for you Now when we were talking on yesterday on last week's show I have you down as six beds that you felt good about on the slate How many of those do you think you got right if you had a guess? Just throw out a guess there throw out a guess oh Five out of six. No six for six You were six for six. We're gonna do like the full recap tomorrow on the show, but You I had you down for buck Saints under that easily hit Yeah, commander's Lions over Jags plus four and a half. They won the dang game Packers mind in its mind. It's not in a half condolences on that one. Sorry about your bears Patriots minus two and a half chargers plus four and a half We talked last week about how like we shouldn't set expectations too high for you But you keep doing this and I feel like I have no choice but to set those expectations higher Good things happen in threes Jim. So we're you know, we're gonna see what what week three brings us But but no, I mean, it's been a fun start to the year I think you know, especially like what I do as far as research goes and everything I mean, I'm not, you know, you're we're gonna have losing weeks, right? I'm just trying to try to ride the wave and we're trying to find value in every way that we can and you know Things were just shaping up like we talked about it being an ugly slate of games and kind of just like We really have to dig deep into the numbers and kind of see what was you know What what was sticking out to us and just looking at those games and you know hindsight's always 2020 But I just felt like we had we had pretty good reads on on everything that we were talking through on that day So and and you know, we're playing with house money now as we like to say over here So we're just gonna ride the wave and see how it happens But we got this two gamer two gamer that we're gonna break down for the Monday night slate tonight And we're hoping to bring back some good dividends to the people on this one Yeah And I like that you're keeping level head because it's always important with betting you never want to get too High coming off a good a good week never want to chase losses never doing anything like that But it sounds like we are in a good headspace heading into this doubleheader for Monday night football What we'll do for today is break down both those games He tightens the bills first Vikings that eagle second We'll talk about traditional markets and player props to get you set for both of those games The first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering this spread tomorrow We'll do the full recap of this past week from both college and NFL We'll do that here at the end of the show I'll stick my first will look at week number three in the NFL side of things Brandon Goodula is gonna talk some golf tomorrow and of course pitching ninja Rob Friedman We'll think about talk about some Strikeout props as wealth to get that in every podcast as they are posted Make sure you are subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast and while you're there If you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Fandal is an all-new mobile gaming app called fendal face off fendal face off is where you compete in quick fun games against other real people For real cash it is all sorts of games you're familiar with like home run derby wheel of fortune puzzle and strategy games And more on the way including Pat McAfee's kicking game Contests are action-packed and last between two to five minutes So you can play on your couch waiting in line and during a commercial break wherever and on your schedule plus you can practice Or free anytime whether it be head-to-head Multiplayer or larger tournaments fendal face off has something for you plus in most contests matched up against players of similar Skill levels so you're never totally overmatched even as a beginner fendal face off is tied to your fendal account and wallet So you can easily use your daily fantasy funds or sportsbook winnings in the app It's a fendal calm slash face off or download the fendal face off app In the Apple app store today to get in the game age and location restrictions apply void drip prohibited see fendal calm slash Face off dash terms for terms and conditions. Let's dive in now to the first game on tonight's light That is he tightens at the bills right now the bills are a 10 point favorite total for this game is up at 47 and a half don't appear to be any big issues in this game from a weather perspective But Ryan we do have a question mark around Gabriel data's talk about that later on but I want to get your overall Impressions of this game first of all Can the Titans keep things close? I think that's kind of the key deciding thing Determining how we view this game overall Yeah, so I think I mean anytime you're looking at braval Rable Rable and his numbers as an underdog we got we got to love that You're looking at his numbers. I believe 18 and 6 Against the spread as a three point or as a three point or more underdog 18 11 in general since he's been with the Titans as an underdog So we always love those numbers for braval when you're looking at this matchup with Tennessee and Buffalo They've actually won the past two matchups Under Rable now. I believe those games were both in Tennessee not in Buffalo and you know AJ Brown was around And not in Philly So, you know that that kind of makes it tough when we were looking at a 10 point spread here We know there's going to be two things that the Titans want to do in this game And that's pretty much keep Josh Allen Josh Allen off of the field and run the ball with Derek Henry Those two things coincide. So I think if they can get Derek Henry, you know If they can establish the run early and kind of you know Their defense comes out here and can contain Josh Allen and keep it off the field They do not want to get into a shootout with this team So they just have to play contain and and run the ball and and I think that 10 10 points here is a little too high You can see that the public is really favoring the Buffalo side here heavily I believe 70 percent or more the money is coming in on the Buffalo side on the spread Which always makes me weary So I'm I'm happy to get those 10 points with the Titans just knowing You know the coaching pedigree that they're they're dealing with and still having Derek Henry Which he's had five touchdowns in this matchup the past two games as well So he loves playing against this Buffalo team Um, and we know how good their secondary is and kind of how they play and they contain the pass anyway So it's a good matchup for what Tennessee likes to do. I think I think I feel like My numbers agree with you. I have this as the bill is by 6.4 Now that's that's within the threshold where I would bet it typically. I just get really really nervous I'm not going to hear personally My numbers do go the same direction as you do where this is a spread that's probably a bit bigger than it should be And honestly, it's no shock that people are pretty enthusiastic about this Bill's team based on what they did in week one against the Rams Titans. Obviously Didn't play their best game in week one as well. So I understand why the line is where it is I think that my biggest takeaway is I can't bet the bills. I can't bet the bill's money line I think there is no value there that is all gone. I think to me It's just like, uh, I don't want to do this to myself kind of thing Like I don't want to be sitting on the couch Monday. Oh, well this game starts like 7 30 So our 7 7 15 so I don't I want to be sitting there at like 7 45 like oh boy Josh Allen's already up two touchdowns and I'm sure miserable the rest of the night So it's a stay away from me But my numbers do agree with you where There is value on the Titan side of things at plus 10 I just can't quite get there any read for you on the total in this game at 47 and a half I think that's another one where I'm not super enthusiastic. I would lean under but don't really have a hard a hard lead either way Yeah, I don't either so contrary to everything that I just said Jim I actually do kind of like the over. Um, I think that you know, it opened at 51 It's been bet down significantly. We got 47 and a half I believe currently on the Fandall sportsbook in Gabe Davis being questionable I mean, maybe that moves it by the hook. Maybe it doesn't but I still think that makes things interesting From the side of the game and this is like one of those weird things You know, the teams have played each other in the past and I think everybody's looking ahead And we'll talk about the Minnesota and Philly game and kind of what that means and where the money's going to as far as Where that over is and so there is some merit I feel like to have in an over here like you can see the Tennessee Titans like maybe they turn Josh Allen over, you know on the road get Derek Henry and early touchdown or something like that If the Titans go out to like a 10 point 13 point lead or something like that and Buffalo's kind of pushing Pushing things on their end. This could get interesting where you know, the overheads and then maybe you know People who have Buffalo tickets with the spread are feeling pretty good about themselves So it's one of those things I would take separately. I wouldn't do them hand in hand if I'm taking the Tennessee You know 10 I'm trying to lean the under it But if I'm just taking, you know any lean in this game I do like the over because there are explosive pieces on both sides that I feel like could really, you know Cause for some weird things to happen I think that what you said is correct where if you assume the Titans cover that lends itself more towards a Lower scoring game than a than a higher score game. So I think that what you said makes sense Maybe you separate those two or decided when you feel better about and go that way Or if you want to go if you're looking for like a same game parlay Maybe that situation where you take advantage of the potential correlation there and take the Titans plus 10 and the under 47 and a half Now the tough thing with player props for this game is that Gabriel Davis We don't know yet as of 904 a.m. Eastern on uh, monday whether he'll play I didn't get a good read on the situation in terms of like Optimism it sounds like if I had a guess right now, I'd guess I gave Davis probably does not play So as a result not a ton of passing props up for the bills right now Stefan digs does have a total up 75 and a half receiving yards Dawson knocks 32 and a half The digs one is a little high The knocks one also feels high. So I feel like I can't really get there We do have Josh Allen props up as well. Any read for you on the bills passing game given the uncertainty around gave Davis Yeah, I'm just gonna be uh all in on on Stefan digs tonight I mean the number is high, but he has had some some great games in this matchup I believe he's had a 16 target game From Josh Allen and then an 11 or 10 target game. So double digit targets in two matchups against this team I feel like he's the catalyst for this offense, especially, you know going against this Tennessee defense It there should be so favorable for him to get loose. I know that number is kind of always You know daunting but when you look at some of the numbers, you know for the slate that we have this two gamer when you're looking at AJ Brown and and uh Justin Jefferson's prop line in that then you're like, okay, like this is reasonable for for Stefan digs So I do like the over there and then getting plus money for him to score a touchdown at home I think is just so favorable. He's plus 115 at any time touchdown. So I like that as well So what's your preferred route for digs? Is it both those? Both the the yardage over and then touchdown his receiving like a total reception prop Is it six and a half? Which is also high, but it is plus 108 on the over So you have a couple routes. What's your preferred one for digs for tonight? Yeah, the the receptions is interesting too, Jim because it's like, you know without Gabriel davis I mean we could probably just expect stuff to be the stuff on dig show Almost and he's just gonna get peppered So I think that has some merit to it depending on whether the juice is coming in at but yeah I'd be happy parlaying the receiving yards and and the you know, the touchdown prop To to get it favorable in that matchup because it's a home matchup against Tennessee Especially if you if you have any leans on the Buffalo side or anything like that at all I mean, yes Jamison Crowder and Dawson Knox and Devin singletary. Josh Allen can always run one So there's chances that you know, they get in the red zone and it's not favorable for him But I think anything between the 20s for this guy He's so explosive and you know getting plus money on him is just always nice Okay, any other props you like in this game? We got a lot of stuff posted especially on the Tennessee side Anything else any out to you for this one? Yeah, so on the Tennessee side side, especially I'm looking at two things. So Robert Woods. I feel like is in a decent spot his his receiving yards total is that 40 and a half and I think that you know Like a lot of people and I myself included, you know We tend to just kind of look at the stats of what happened from week one and kind of take that as Not gospel, but you know that does stack out in your brain and Robert Woods wasn't successful Last week, but you know the Giants defense has actually looked, you know, pretty stout in a dory Jackson that corner for them He shadowed Robert Woods in week one and this Buffalo team is not going to shadow. I mean they kind of just sit back play zone play, you know play Very favorable to just then don't break defense So that I think he's in a decent spot there to kind of bounce back Especially if you're liking the Buffalo side of things and think that, you know They're going to carry this game away and take Derek Henry out of it I'm going to like that a lot and then on the Tennessee side of things Let's look at ryan tana hill anytime touchdown at plus 650 I do think it's interesting that, you know, Derek Henry has kind of burned them so many times and we've seen this Time and time again where they get in the red zone if it's like, you know, two or closer They fake it out to Henry and and tana hill can sometimes take it himself and run and just run it himself He has rushing upside that people I think tend to forget. There's no aj brown there So if they find themselves In go-to-go situations, just get, you know rushing quarterbacks are always ones that I look at Um as far as getting value on them and the fandom sports book So anytime touchdown at plus 650. I'll ride with that too. I think that could be a good spot to look at Once it's posted actually it is up tana hill's rushing yardage prop is 10 and a half. Um, that seems low In part because of what you mentioned with the goal line stuff, but also This defensive line is probably going to get after him no ed oliver for tonight But like it's still a good defensive line and that's kind of how you get to a lot of overs for quarterbacks Is they're scrambling, you know, they're forced to Move the way out of the pocket tana hill, obviously a very athletic guy only two rushes for seven yards last week But overall he is willing to run at times, especially when There's pressure in his face So I think that the tana hill rushing yardage prop over 10 and a half also very intriguing there I agreed on robert woods. I you were talking about woods over and I was like, oh, yeah Cool, like it's like he faced adory jackson last week and then you said that and I was like, oh, okay Cool, like ryan's got all these bases covered. I don't need to worry about that I can just kind of check out let him cruise but I think both those tana hill um rushing props in general and the woods over 40 and a half both those actually Don't let us not forget robert woods revenge game The bills drafted him. So we can't forget this I didn't I didn't think about this. That's a hand clap. That's a hand clap all day Go crazy. Go crazy. Go crazy. Speaking of revenge games Let's move to the second game here the vikings at the eagles jalen rager revenge game Justin jefferson revenge game because the eagles passed him over We can do whatever we want here with regards to narratives They are flying all over the board eagles two and a half way favorites right now a fan dual sports book Total is 50 and a half I want to get you read on this game because both these teams looked really good in week one So if you had to guess I think they're both potentially able to sustain what they did So that's my answer But which team do you think is more legit more likely to sustain what they did in week one going forward? Yeah, it's it's tough for me because these are two teams that I've liked in the nfc Like outside of the buccaneers and I think we talked about them a lot You know heading into the season so vikings like I have tickets on them to win the division Eagles are the team that I have coming out of the nfc To be in the super bowl this year. So it's like I'm gonna know, you know I'm kind of hedging my bets here because I'm gonna know, you know what who's who's Really legit and and coming to reality here and I do kind of lean the minnesota viking side I mean just with kevin o'Connell there be we we expected this offense to be You know explosive But I think they really have a chance to to shine all season long and just have a favorable schedule From here on out, but it's the defense aside the ball for me too jim Ed donatell being here or being in minnesota For this team this guy's been great, you know at all stops He was in chicago for a little bit in 18 when you know eddie jackson and kyle fuller was showing out He's been in denver For you know a couple stints and and did really well for those guys, you know super bowl pedigree and things of that nature Like he's going to do I think wonders with you know the secondary of cam dancer patrick peterson and Harrison smith and those guys in just the front seven two. So I say all that to say The eagle side of the ball too I mean, I know they got gashed on the run and I think it's a dalvin cook game that we're expecting But you know, they're probably looking to rebound defensively as well They do have some pieces, but I think they're missing derrick barnett So I could see this game You know, I could see why the public's betting the over but this does kind of scream under to me to a certain extent Like I could see just you know the lights being on here We know kurt cousins isn't that great I'm in prime time and I you know, I do think they're going to try and feed dalvin cook get him going Maybe the pace is a little bit slower if hearts can't sustain drives I think it's just maybe going to be a back and forth affair as far as like Not as bad as what we saw yesterday with tampa bay in new orleans But uh, just one of those things where you're not, you know, you're looking at these pieces And you're like this should be more explosive than it is. Uh, so that's kind of my read on it right now I I forgot the kurt cousins prime time narrative, uh, because uh, that frightened me. It's why I said, oh, no Softly it's because I have the vikings money line in this game It's plus 116 a fan that you can get it longer elsewhere. I've seen plus 123 still out there in spots I would check around see what you can get there, but even at plus 116 I'm showing value on the vikings here because I've got them the slight favorites in this game my numbers have it as a point five five points favoring the vikings and that is in part because My numbers are rationally high on the vikings as they always are and I think that the The point I want to make is that this is not a skepticism around the eagles I think the eagles be very good. Uh, my numbers do like them as well I had the over on their win total when it was eight and a half and moved up to nine and a half after some moves I think that the eagles are a very good offense and I think that they're a very good team overall I do worry a bit about the interior offensive line of minnesota holding up here against jordan davis And the guys the eagles have along that defensive line. No derrick barnett But he was more of a rotational type guy at this point So I do worry about that aspect of it, but I think the vikings are a really good football team and When you look at what they did last week, I don't think that was a huge surprise This is not a bet based on what they did in that game because philadelphia played well, too We saw detroit play well Last week or last night against washington. So like that eagles win looks better in week one I think it's just that the vikings are a good football team. Uh, they've got jesson jefferson getting scheme touches now That's pretty fun to watch I think that they will better be able to maximize dak dalvin cook when they're not just slamming him You know, I mean, obviously the kubi acts Do have very good rushing schemes, but from a pass to run ratio perspective I like what they'll be doing more at this point. So I like the vikings money line plus 116. I have bet that I do like that I'm fine making that like an official recommendation for this I I think that again shop around see what you can get I do have my concerns because I think that hurts is pretty solid. I think that a j brown makes this offense disgusting I'm a bit worried about the interior offensive line, but vikings plus 116 is it's uh, it's tough for me to turn down if I'm with my numbers having the vikings being slight favorites in this game Yeah, no, it's I mean kirk cousins, you know the prime time narrative I just bring that up just because I know a ton of people will be talking about Is it the sleepy? So we have the sleepy tom narrative where tom brady can't stay up for prime time games Is it sleepy kirk because he's like got the big dad energy Is he just like is he like an east coast dad? Is that is that what this is where he can't stay up for prime time games because i'm not a dad, but I can relate But like do we go with the sleepy kirk narrative? Is that the dad narrative? What do we do in here? Well, let's phone a friend calling jj and see how the east coast dad is feeling but uh, but no I mean it's just prime time and I you know some Something about just the lights being on him and it being you know an island game Um, it's you know something so I do you know This would be a huge win for kirk for kirk cousins on the road just kind of what What the writing's on the wall for their season to be but also for jalen hurts too I mean he's been you know doubted by by so many people In the industry and you know talking heads just he you know all he does is run and you know with aj brown being there So you know a lot writing on this for both teams and that's why I feel like jim The under is kind of screaming to me because you you can see that Both of these teams will just want to win this game so bad that there'll be so much pressure on both of these Offenses and I think that you know we could see maybe a sloppy game or Not as explosive as we expect CT's is before talking about stifon digs But the yardage numbers for aj brown and just just and jefferson are up there. Uh, we got just just in jefferson 96 and a half uh receiving yards his profits night aj brown 74 and a half That's more reasonable that one. I can understand for sure any value for you in either of those numbers for brown or for jefferson Yeah, the jefferson one is tough. Um, yeah It's it's just tough to see a number like that and if you're thinking, you know, it's like a mental block in your head Yeah, well just how green bay played and I mean if you know I don't play you don't play jim, but I think if they're in the room and they're watching film They're like we just got to stop this guy like adam thielen kj osborne Dalvin cooked to a certain extent like we just cannot let this guy beat us So I I expect, you know, very prideful philly defense to to come out there and really try and Contain him as best as they can now you're never going to feel, you know good about fading quote on quote Justin jefferson, but when we're looking at the fandom sportsbook, I'd rather go to the odds boost With justin jefferson to score a touchdown and the vikings to win at plus 280 if i'm going to get some action on justin jefferson because it's you know his prop i think Anytime touchdown is minus 115 or something like that. So, um, that's kind of where i lean now the aj brown one again Is interesting as well to me too because they just face the secondary Or they just face the wide receiver core that you know has really nothing to it From the green bay packers Side of things so I think the vikings, you know to a certain extent have their work cut out for them But I am interested in like the other guys as as far as dallas goddard and devonta smith Who was blanked in week one? I think that jaylen hurts, you know, he's he's never been a guy and we know now that we've only seen one week with aj brown But he's not a guy that like really peppers one receiver, right? He's been spreading it around pretty much has been his mo It maybe that's because he hasn't had alpha We'll see but I mean these these guys are still studs and I think it's going to be tough for the run game In this matchup. So I am interested in like devonta smiths anytime touchdown prop plus 240 Um aj aj brown, I'd probably lean more his receptions because I could see them using him close to the line of scrimmage Get him out in space um rather than his receiving yardage prop. Um, so that's that's kind of where I'm leaning right now Yeah, sorry the choked out. It's reading the the props. We got this. Um, I choke you up. I got you The aj brown receptions one is five and a half minus 120 on the over That seems pretty fair. I I think that what you said makes a lot of sense because the shorter passes are Are have our catchphrase stuff like that. He doesn't need 16 targets to get you six Uh receptions there. Uh devonta smiths yardage prop 42 and a half minus 113 On the over for him any other bets you like uh in this uh, this vikings at eagles game Yeah, so you're the you're the rushing and receiving prop guy and I am kind of high on delvin cook Like I kind of teased at the beginning. Uh, I believe he's 93 and a half right now in the fandall sports book and that seems fair Um, but you know, I think that it could even be more more explosive than that I'm looking at delvin cook His anytime touchdown prop absolutely makes no sense at being minus 115 like it should it should be a little bit favorable than that I think he's gonna get going now. It is a little it was a little interesting. I think alexander madison touched the ball He had like 10 touches in week one, which is the most he's had in any game that delvin cook has been healthy Um, so you know, that's going to be something to monitor But I do like delvin cooks props as far as the rushing yards go receiving yards go rushing and receiving combined And anytime touchdown, I feel like they just will will have the chance to get him established here I know you talked about the front seven for philly, but fletcher cox being a little bit older and just the way that they you know defended against Deandre swift and jamal williams like this is delvin cook. We're talking about coming into your home This could be a very good game for him to get loose. Yeah and week one. Let me check Dalvin's numbers his usage week one 20 carries five targets 108 yards and scrimmage in that game Like you said did loosen work late to madison because that game is out of hand, but it's 77 snap rate still for dalvin That's pretty good. So 93 and a half. I actually think that's a that's that is a bit low So I'm on board of you or potentially buying into that dalvin cook over 93 and a half rushing plus receiving I do want both as opposed to the single market Um Because I do like the way that using five targets is a pretty good number So I think that dalvin is interesting there for sure 93 and a half his rushing plus receiving number So we'll see if the vikings can pull out this way and try to get us Both the jefferson odds boost and potentially my money line on them That's all we got here for this double header button in football I think we actually have a couple more coming up later on this year. I didn't check But i'm pretty sure someone said there are multiple. So okay, we get a couple of these uh two game slates for for dfs A lot of good stuff ryan, uh makes people follow you on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w I appreciate it. Hopefully things go as well for you tonight as you did on sunday And we'll talk to you once again later on this week Yeah, I can't wait to get after with you jim. Good luck everybody. Absolutely again ryan is on twitter at ryan alexander underscore W. I am on twitter at jim sanis. You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast Good luck to you with your monday night football bets. Enjoy the games. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow Take our first look at nfl week number three. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network