 Because right now On the phone we have this be the FaceTime machine. We have an esteemed guest comfy. Let's go. Raldee welcome This welcome the hammer done happy to be here. We have an esteemed guests on the line Official title that I was given was director of risk and trading at Fandle a lot of dream jobs for a lot of people us maybe not not Not good at the risk comfy Bought a reward, but we'll ask him Director of risk and trading at Fandle John Sheeran. Welcome to hammer down How's it going guys John? How are you? How are you today? Very well excited to be here. I'm a big fan of the show. So Looking forward again some pigs out there. Well, we're we're a fan of what you do first and foremost What is the director director of risk and trading at Fandle do? As little as possible as often as I can Yeah, look, it's our job is fundamentally about setting the odds for all of the bets and wager types Developing all the product that we have out there. So we spend a lot of time innovating with the likes of SGP Which I know you and your you and your viewers are big fans of and developing a lot of our Player props and so yeah, it's like you said a dream job for a lot for most of the time How does that happen like does do Do you get input from? People on the app from actual bettors Do you look at anything like that other companies are going for the same game parlays for this stuff like that for the 3x2 boosts? In basketball, who comes up with you guys just have a team of people that do that Yeah, I mean like a lot of that is is self innovation I think some you know good ideation from the guys in the marketing team around the odds boost a lot of the Partnership team that work with you guys come up with some of the ideas specifically for what you do and yeah I think you know we're lucky We've got really good product and really good development team support teams that allows us to you know expand on what we have and You know, hopefully we can keep going and driving this market and giving better is more opportunity So like when I text text Jordan from Vandal who we we deal with a lot Does he come to you and say hey? Hammered down has has an odds boost they want to do today and they wanted to be this and then you Analyze the risk and say yay or nay Yeah, I mean normally we say yes We're happy to kind of support and Jordan will reach out and say you guys like some better or another and we'll go Way and price it and put it on the site and take as much money as we can So when when you're when you're making lines for the site Is that you is it computer because there's a I don't with all the props with all the boosts every single sport? MLB we do there's every single in your game first five the same game How does I mean that's a lot of that's a lot of lines. That's a lot of risk to analyze in a day. How does that? How does that work? Yeah, I mean we have models that basically Generate a lot of the algorithms for us and run the simulations in the background And they'll basically spit out the probabilities that we think that the model thinks have of each individual wager of happening So every time you go to the website and pick a different selection in an SGP it runs the simulations and You know spits out what the probability and what the odds are And that's what you see happening in real time So we lean a lot on the resource and from a technology perspective that we have but when it comes to the NFL the NBA You know our ratings and and the adjustments we make on game-to-game or week-to-week That is something that the guys in our teams You know I've got a lot of experience doing and they manage and actually absolutely crunch them numbers and analyze What the algorithm spits out and and adjust them for all the things that you know The model can't understand be it matchups changes in staff weather input things like that So like you said a lot of fun conversations when especially when there's disagreements That's I was gonna ask like because there's no way that the model is the model Watson by the way Is it IBM's Watson? Is that who's is that who's doing it? Yeah, we found a new job But there's no way that like a model can take into like a revenge factor like if a player is going back to play his team or Potentially there they've been in Vegas for a few days or stuff like that So you still have there's there's the human side, right? The little Vegas flu. Yeah, it doesn't doesn't it doesn't count for money strip clubs Or are such like yeah, so yeah, we're struggling with them once and they're absolutely our edge cases Like you said the model run simulations over, you know a lot of iterations a lot of data and a lot of averages So there will be certain instances that the model will struggle to pick up on and for sure You can spot those opportunities and pick up on them. So how's How does how do you guys do then like cuz all right? So NFL schedules out you guys now have the over under for season win totals You have the yes. No on the playoffs. You have lines up for week one and two like How much oh year over year so I assume you guys have done week one lines before this early in the year How much do those lines change from now and then and how much liability and how much how much action is going in This early so far on the NFL Yeah, a lot. I mean, it's really topical. Obviously, that's why we kind of published a lot of the content that we did yesterday That you see on the site the regular season wins the first two weeks in the schedule Last year, I believe for the you know all of the teams where we had a footprints We had the entire season price. I think by the end of May So we look to expand on what's on there a huge demand already Obviously, it's only a fraction of what we get come game day in terms of line moves Obviously, there's so many unknowns certain specific lines I think I remember looking back last year and we had a line that moved 10 points from when we said it right now to When it actually came about so there's lots of opportunity if you think you've got a good feel for Why might what might happen? I'm Roger's where he might potentially end up in week one or two then obviously that's gonna have a huge impact on the line for the Packers so Yeah, there's lots of opportunity there people just need to I guess invest a bit of time and make their picks and take Advantage of our bot work. So here's a question for you during the draft or the day of the draft when the Rogers news was breaking and There was news about him potentially going to Denver and Denver was gonna make an offer and Denver's odds for the Super Bowl Next year where we're plummeting. I believe they went from like plus thirty six hundred to plus six hundred at some point Or sixteen hundred somewhere around there now Is that based on the information that's out there? Or is it just you guys trying to cover your asses based on how much money's coming in on the Broncos? So is or is it a little bit of both? I think it's a little bit of all of that I think fundamentally though, you know, I think there's some strong rumors a we know Aaron Rodgers is not happy in Green Bay and we saw you know The impact of that in terms of the lengthening of the odds of the Packers winning the Super Bowl We've moved them I think from 11 to 1 after the Super Bowl all the way to 17 to 1 now And we think that Denver is by far and away the most likely destination should he decide to leave Green Bay We were as high as 85 to 1 about the Broncos after the Super Bowl back in February and they're already as low as 24 to 1 It's really just about us kind of assessing the probability the likely odds of what Denver would be and the probability We think he is of going there So yesterday we put up a market in Colorado the only state that we're permitted to about what his next team will be We made the Packers a minus 170 shot with Denver a clear second favorite a plus 220 So we think there's somewhere in the realms of a 25% true probability chance that Aaron Rodgers ends up in Denver I saw you I actually saw you tweet about that today and I'm glad you brought up the point that that's the only market You're allowed to do that and how do you guys deal with some markets? Like I think it was Some of the market like we were talking about NFL draft props Leading up to the draft and a lot of our listeners would say hey Fandle doesn't have this Where is this out on the Fandle? But we have it here in Indy. I know like Jersey had a lot more Props than we did here. Some states had none. Like how do you guys? How do you guys deal with that? Yeah, look, it's very difficult. It's new to us as well We landed in the US obviously after pass was repealed back in 2018 and you know Europe and Australia are not regulated in the same way as sports betting is in the US So we effectively could you know price up what color will Tony Romo's tie be on Sunday? Football or how many times going to correct call a correct play? That those are markets that the regulators just aren't comfortable with and I would think it's a maturity thing I think you know, we've seen already a lot of states get more comfortable with us And as we kind of expand and that maturity comes I think we'll see gradual You know risk-taking is the wrong word But I think they will see more openness from the regulators to expand on their offering I think the draft is a difficult one It's prohibited by statute and legislation in a lot of the states And so that is very much a case-by-case basis and that would require The bills and the statute to be amended before we could actually go and offer it everywhere We'd love to offer it everywhere We're known in Europe with paddy power for offering a lot of novelty in phone markets And you know, hopefully there's a day when we can do that everywhere in the US to say speaking of Europe And this just came off to me the top of my head was the lester result of winning the Premier League the The most insane thing that the books have ever seen over there. Yeah, I think it's very close to it I mean that I think there were three thousand to one at the start of the season I was working in Paddy power at the time and we had a I remember it I think they drew their first game or their first two games that season Before they went on to win the league and I remember we pretty Bidley looked up some bets from a at the start of the season and one one customer replaced ten dollars at three thousand to one Which would have netted them thirty thousand dollars, but after they drew the first game he cashed out for Sit for six dollars. So I'm losing Four dollars on his wage around the 30 that he wouldn't like to that leads me into John I cashed out one for 250 during the college football season that would have paid out eight grand and it did When so this is a question that people get a lot of time When does the cash out pop up because sometimes I'll look to cash out and it's not up there Is there a certain set of rules when the kid when you guys Give the cash out versus when you don't is it a situation? We're like, oh, I think this person may actually win this bet So let's throw up the cash out now. How does that work? No, we're definitely not that sneaky Basically basically it's just Calculating the probability of the odds when you place the wager against what it currently is So the system just really needs Your market that you wagered on to be alive and further to be live odds So if you think about like very very late in an NBA game It might be suspended because the game is already over as in the probability Yeah, of the result is already determined in those cases you won't get a cash out offer because it's suspended So the two criteria that your market is still available for wagering and that there are live odds at that moment in time Don't be yeah, John. Is this there? I guess a question is there more bets on like newer things being made like I know a lot of people bet this first inning draw First inning under first inning no runs Just can you dive into some of the newer bets that a lot of people are betting on right now? Yeah, I mean I look I think the setup for the US sports in general the core sports mean that they're pretty it's a pretty long investment in time Right if you bet a run line in a baseball game or a total Invariably you're invested in that for three hours Plus so I think people prefer what we call micro betting and you know quicker hits and the ability to be able to sit down for five Ten minutes watching events place a wager on and actually get the outcome while you're investing that time Rather than sitting there and you know waiting for the outcome of the game like NBA is a really good example Where the last four minutes or so are really the crunch time and how often does it happen that you have a wager on a total where? You know you're sweating every basket on and over For an hour and a half and then all of a sudden it really just comes down to the crunch at the end So we've tried to solve for a lot of markets that give people the opportunity to be able to get in and get out Quicker and and spend and get that entertainment value in a much shorter time frame And I think you'll continue to see a lot of that We've developed some markets in our new model for baseball and eventually hope to get to a place where you can bet on every single Pitch every single that batter that played appearance in the MLB And I think that could happen as early as this season. No John That's is there ever a thought to go a lot of books in So I call it footy, but soccer betting if a team goes up two goals They'll they'll pay you out. Have you ever thought about doing that and John do you? Look at what Gumby takes and see is such a good footy better and then potentially change the line Yeah, we changed them the other way. So when he takes when he takes a team we want to take more money on that side Yeah, look we look at all of those promotions. We've actually been really well known in Europe for doing those So we've looked at it in the NFL around 14 up Or seven up when you go up seven points in a basketball game or 14 up in and an NFL game That your bet is actually graded in real time as a winner Think some of the challenges that we've met is the regulated state-by-state Approach in the US and trying to get all the regulators aligned with approving that is a little bit challenging So for now we haven't been able to do wholesale But for sure something we're looking at and something I would expect to see on a broader scale soon But definitely thank you for the double chance in footy. I appreciate it No problem. I think everybody likes that I was kind of joking about company and moving the lines But like in the olden days in Vegas if a sharp or a shark walked in and placed a bet then Potentially the line would move not only because of the liability, but because they respect that guy's opinion on the bet Now that it's on the app and not so much brick and mortar Like is there people on the app that you guys? Pay attention to that like do have a good percentage winning percentage on the app and stuff like that and then you will pay attention to Yeah, absolutely. I mean, you know, we treat that very much as more information, right? So if we hang a line on week one and we get a sharp better is coming in telling us You know, your opinion is wrong then for certain customers. We'll absolutely value that I think in certain situations we're more sensitive to that than we would be on a Super Bowl for example You know, we believe that we're pretty good at setting lines in the NFL or in the NBA and We also have you know excessive ego on this floor as well So it takes a lot for us to be convinced that somebody else has got a better opinion But for sure there are customers that will wager early in the week ahead of a weekend NFL Where we will either negate our position if we had a position against the market So if we're minus seven on the Patriots, I know that wouldn't happen anytime soon to get anybody But when it used to happen Somebody might come in and bet the other side and we might say okay We want to go back to market because we respect this customer's opinion so much But you know broadly speaking, that's really difficult. They're pretty rare to find those guys that sharp, you know Yep. Yeah, go ahead, buddy met Jay is Mike's off Sorry is Mike's off John. We'll get to the guy that you're on now. Oh, okay. Here we go. Sorry about that Thank you for coming on this been an absolute pleasure for me to listen to this Giant giant gambling addict or I guess degenerate. Sorry. No, you can't say that But I am a big college football college basketball not really college basketball, but I'm also a big college lacrosse fan I'm kind of wondering why do you guys only have certain college sports and like really what goes into that criteria of like I Guess talking to the NCAA or just who do you guys like get that from thanks, man? Yeah, it's a really good question and I think when we have never really gotten to the bottom of yet I think you know fundamentally at core it's really centered around wide-spread wide-spread demand You know, obviously our business under the flutter umbrella and Paddy power brands in Europe and Australia and sports bet College football and basketball were really really the only two college sports that we were exposed to So I think you've kind of that lead-in time that we had for us sports before we even landed here with van doel And the mental lacrosse and even baseball to some degree hasn't really been prioritized We don't really cover NCAA hockey either and I think we absolutely have been surprised We knew there was a huge opportunity with college college sports Maybe didn't even realize how big it it's actually been Our development strategy right now is to improve the college basketball and football Offering primarily we think that there's a huge opportunity. We'll have a brand new model for college basketball next season We'll be the first operator in the US to take that in house. Okay, we're excited about that and you know The extra product that that will potentially lead to so expanding SGP to the college sports Expanding on player betting opportunities I think the natural progression over time will be to look at the other opportunities like lacrosse like baseball and like hockey as Well, but you know prioritization means that the bigger sports will win in the short term And I think that's what you're seeing with us for now. Is there any worry and I don't know if you can answer With the smaller college sports of just Potentially like a player getting to getting getting bought or anything like that Like is that is that a thing that is concerning with the smaller college sports? Integrity something we're incredibly experienced with we've been partnered with integrity independent monitoring services in Europe for You know 20 25 years We're partnered with Swimmer here in the US right now for exactly the same purpose I think in general you see opportunities for integrity issues and lower-tier sports where the financial gain isn't significant And that's obviously very very true in college Sports as well, but you know our limits tend to reflect the opportunity and the lack of Confidence we have in prices So I think the financial opportunities actually far less than maybe what the common perception is particularly as we go Down the sports and beyond football and basketball I got one more and then gummies got one more and then let you out it. We can't thank you enough for your time So this weekend we have the preakness We got the NBA playoffs coming up and we have the NHL playoffs coming up as far as handles concerned Who will do the most you have any? Do you have any huge risks like if it's Lakers and Nets finals? Are you guys in a good spot there? Is that the dream scenario for you guys? But out of those three things Who does the biggest handle and then potentially some some big liability that you guys potentially have Yeah, I mean NBA is always the biggest because of the frequency of the games Obviously and obviously the kind of stature of the sports hockey you'll tend to be a little lower Playoff time obviously it increases But in general hockey will be somewhere between three and five percent of our total handle NBA like probably more like six or seven times that okay So NBA is really one of our top sports Obviously NFL is king But the frequency of basketball and baseball actually bring it beyond the handle that we take in the NFL In terms of exposure for the championship the biggest liability we have is on the Knicks 120 to one right now they lose us about three and a half million dollars if they win The Nets are a loser and the 76ers are a loser and basically everybody else Would be a winner for us. I think in terms of what we're cheering for in the finals Western. Yeah If we get if we get the Lakers and the Nets in a series final I think that would be by far and away the biggest event combined outside the Super Bowl In sports betting in the regulated market in the US Copy good. Yeah, John a lot of people who watch ask about how the round robin works I tried to explain it yesterday, but if you could dive into exactly how it works I think that'd be great for a lot of people and John if you could jump on top of that one question That we ask all of our guests that we bring on it and I would be an idiot not to ask you advice for beginning betters on Fandle Yeah, look, I'll answer the advice one first People might put a question mark over this and say why is a bookmaker give me advice on betting? But you know my view is it's entertainment particularly for a novice better I think it's so so difficult very few people like a tiny tiny percent of 1% of people Can make this pay as a full-time job and it's really difficult and frankly You know the odds literally and frankly are stacked against you. You've got really no shot if you're betting multiple games on a Sunday slate I know it's not a lot of fun But if you're going to get involved in it beyond the entertainment value, I think you need to be pretty Disciplined in terms of you know selectiveness when you're deciding how many bets you're gonna have and where you're gonna bet My advice to people will be stick stay away from the spread in the NFL or the money line in Baseball and maybe look at markets like player props where you're competing against frankly just less liquidity Yeah, your your opinion might be against one of our traders for example and not against billions of dollars as an industry And I would try and stay away from betting overs on star players particularly in the NFL receiving yards passing yards I'd be looking at second and third on the depth chart and in the skill positions and trying to figure out if you can Like the match-up or potentially see something that the traders might have missed think you've got a far better chance of succeeding and Losing at a lower rate and potentially even winning in markets like that rather than betting on you know a five-team parlay on a Sunday in the NFL Round robins are really difficult to explain. I'm not we actually don't take too many of them in Europe So I'm not as obey with them as I should be but if fundamentally you can pick from multiple selections You can pick round robins by so let's say you have four selections You can pick around Robin 2 or around Robin 3 obviously 4 would be the parlay and effectively you pay for every combination that there is From 4 and 2 which I believe is 6 although I might be wrong might be 4 And effectively once you get to to a minimum of two winners You will get a payout and it's all of those individual combinations that you've paid for then calculated by multiplying your stake by the two winning odds of those Two's and then you can do the same for threes out of four as well. John. We can't thank you enough I tried explaining it's kind of like horse, right like betting a box and horse racing, but I don't even know if that was Yeah, we can't thank you enough. Please come back on any time. We appreciate your wisdom Good luck with all the handles. Good luck to the West Coast and the NBA Thank you so much for coming on and we appreciate it. Thank you guys. Happy to be here. Thank you John