 This is covering the spread part of the fan tool podcast network There is a lot going on this weekend the sporting world We already discussed the final four for both the men's and women's tournaments yesterday here on the show with dr Ed Feng but there's a lot of this stuff beyond that going on to EPL Matrix 32 with a pretty tight race at top of the table. We'll talk about that with Austin Cass today I'm gonna talk Stefan Diggs his trade to the Houston Texans talk about the betting fallout of that based on my numbers We'll talk some NASCAR in Martinsville. We talked baseball in the solo shot today So hey, there's a lot going on beyond just the final four and it is a delight to break it all down for today Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the fan tool podcast network and fan tool research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for a fan tool research Joined here to kick things off by Austin Cass check him out on Twitter Austin Cass find his work at fan tool research where he is a senior editor Austin Pleasure to have you back on the show for today. How you doing? Doing great Jim. How are you? Good, it's been a minute because EPL had there at the little break and then last week We had a lot of stuff going on with men's college basketball So I have not gotten my dose of EPL in a while I know it didn't miss a lot just because they had that that stretch, but how things gone for you in the interim It's been really good. Yeah, it's been a fun time of the sports calendar right now. So it's been fun Yeah, no more college basketball this weekend, which is kind of a bummer, but do you do you care about Indiana State at all? I know that you're like in Indiana, but do you have any any inclination positive or negative towards them or no? Not really. I Wanted to see and make the tournament just because they had a special year by their standard, but yeah I didn't care too much about the NIT. Okay. It was it looked like a pretty fun game last night But we'll talk about the EPL with Austin here in a second and get his read on that and again We'll talk some NFL with his Tiffan dig straight and NASCAR later on as well But first a reminder if you want to find our show on the men's and women's final four We talked to Dr. Ed Feng here on the show yesterday. He broke down his thoughts on all four games Couple bets Ed does like for this weekend both on the men's and women's side So find that on the fan dual or on the fan dual YouTube page on fan dual TV Plus and on the covering the spread podcast feed as well If you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple podcast or Spotify and make sure you are subscribed To the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast now Austin because we have not discussed EPL in a while we haven't got to talk about the top of the table and The race here is heating up for the outright market in the English Premier League right now Liverpool now minus 105 following the win over. I think it was Sheffield United yesterday Man City plus 190 Arsenal plus 280 So three teams fully in the race. I think within three or so points right now So it's a fun little contest going on here any read for you on where this market stands right now Um, yeah, so this is going to be really fun final stretch here Like you said true three-team race and each team has like a really cool storyline going with it city You're trying to win their fourth in a row, which has never been done Liverpool have Jurgen Klopp their manager who's leaving after this year and then Arsenal kind of got to this petition last year and faltered and they have a young team and it feels like they've been building toward this so yeah, each team has a has a fun little storyline with it, but To be honest, I think the mark is pretty sped on earlier this year I talked With you about how I thought city was too big of a favorite and I liked Liverpool in in Arsenal and They've both done pretty well If I had to pick one team despite what I said this preseason, I think I would take me in city Okay, they've been off it a little this year compared to previous seasons But I still think they're the best team and they also have a slightly easier schedule coming up Their two toughest matches left are at right and at Tottenham at Tottenham is probably the toughest to this the two Those are really the only matches where It wouldn't shock me if they lost or drew But I would say even in the at Spurs match the toughest of the two They're probably going to be around minus 140 minus 150 to win. So I think there's very realistic chance They win all their matches the rest of the way um another interesting variable here if you want to decide with Liverpool is that Of these three the Liverpool is the only one that's not in the Champions League They're in the Europa League So while city and Arsenal have midweek matches and they might actually end up playing each other in the Champions League um Liverpool also have midweek matches, but not quite the level of the Champions League. So that's something working in their favor, but In general, I think city they know it's go time right now They had a disappointing from their perspective performance in the 0-0 tie with Arsenal not that long ago here and Midweek they just beat Aston Villa 4-1. It was 3.0 to 0.7 on expected goals to just Massacre them and Villa is a pretty good team. They're in fourth right now. So Kevin de Bruyne early Holland didn't start in that match and city still played that well so I think they have the highest ceiling of these three teams and Like I said, I think there's a chance they win every match the rest of the way So man city right now plus 190 if annual sports, but you talked about the Champions League factor in this Would Arsenal and man city prioritize the e pl given how tight the race is over the Champions League or is that going to trump everything regardless? um I would say neither of them would prioritize Either competition over the other okay prior to man city winning it last year winning the Champions League last year I would say maybe they would prioritize the Champions League because they'd never won it um I would I would Yeah, I think they're both going to put out the best teams they came in every match So the players it's going to be a grueling stretch here for the players Liverpool will probably play a really good lineup in all their Europa League games, but They could sit somebody like Muhammad saw and probably still advance So that's definitely a feather in their cap here. Okay, and with man city might actually be a benefit that their guys are banged up the fatigue factor may not be as important with them given they've had a lot of time off between De Bruyne and Holland as well So I hope maybe actually a weird benefit from the way things have broken for them so far But Austin does like man city plus 190 right now in the outright market 10 match slate coming up here from match week 32. Austin. Let's kick things off by talking about the traditional markets Where are you seeing value right now there at fandall sportsbook? So in the uh, Bournemouth lutein town match on saturday at 10 I really like lutein town in the double chance market to win or draw at minus 120 um I actually don't even mind them not much to win at the money line plus 260 Um This time of year I factor in motivation a little more than I usually would and the motivation elements certainly lives with lutein town They need points to escape the bottom three as it stands. They're an 18th They're three points behind the team in 17 They're going to be desperate for points here and i'm sure they're going to view this home match against Bournemouth as a game They can win Uh Bournemouth meanwhile are an 11th. They really don't have much to play for at this point They're not going to get relegated and they're not fighting for a european spot next year But it's not all about motivation lutein town have been pretty feisty at home this season despite uh Winning or drawing only six of the 15 home matches. They've been a bit unlucky to not see some better results Their home goal differential is only minus four across their past three home games They've drawn against nattingham forest and then had one goal defeats against both aston villa and manchester united They've given the big boys a fight at home all year They had one goal defeats against shelsey mancity and arsenal as well Due to kind of a quirk in the schedule lutein town and bournemouth actually just played a couple weeks ago and it was uh four three Bournemouth win at Bournemouth They expect a goal total was 2.3 to 2.0 in favor of Bournemouth. So it's a really fun game But to me that tells me lutein town can play with these guys Bournemouth are better, but I don't think the gap's very big. Um, so when I factor in home field advantage And a motivation factor knowing lutein town is going to be doing everything in their power to get at least a draw I feel pretty good about taking them to win or draw minus 120 Yeah, that's in the double chance market as austin mentioned minus 120 for lutein town and draw Which means you get a win if they win the match outright or get the draw the lutein town Moneyline plus 260 to win this thing out, right? You can also go to ty no bet if you want to go that round plus 180 So a lot of different routes to getting exposure to lutein town But austin's favorite one is the double chance market minus 120 for them to win or To get a draw in this one. What about player props any value for you across there this week austin? So i'm actually going to stick with that same game love it and uh Go with carlton morris to score or assist at plus 135 So i'm not don't need to run through how important this matches for lutein town, but Um, as I said, there were seven goals and 4.3 total expected goals the last time these two teams played This matches minus 213 to go over two and a half goals So I say all that to say there should be goals and For both sides morris has eight goals and four assists this year and 25 weeks starts And he's lutein town's penalty taker. He's cashed all four of his penalties and we play The penalty rolls obviously a really big feather in his cap in this market And so is this playing time he's played all 90 minutes and nine straight matches across all competitions So all in all, I think this uh plus 135 number is pretty pretty appealing Now we often talk a lot about Waiting to make sure the guy's in the lineup before you actually lock in the bet Are you okay with this morris one with where things currently stand? Yeah, I am because I think he'll almost surely start unless something has happened at Practice the past couple days that nobody knows about Okay, and this these two markets are sgp eligible. I'm not going to push that on you austin because uh, you know It's obviously a different dynamic here, but if you decided you want to pair those together Carlton morris to score or assist and lutein to either win or draw is plus 232 So you can consider that as well. Obviously these two markets are pretty heavily correlated So you can't consider that too in what austin thinks should be a pretty fun match Plus 232 again for colton morris to score or assist and lutein to win or draw That's all we got here for today for austin Should be a pretty fun slate and also pretty fun close out to the year austin Some excited to get you back here on the show in the very near future talk more epl And keep tabs as that very fun race at the top evolves enjoy your weekend with a lot of fun basketball and soccer We'll talk to you again soon Sounds good. Thank you Jim All righty again fine awesome on twitter at austin cast and you can also check him out on fan dual research to get his thoughts on Various sports there as well. We're going to dive into these to find digs trade talk about the fallout from a betting perspective And let you know if I see any value in wind totals divisional odds and then talk nascar and martinsville In just one second, but first if your bracket is busted Don't worry because fan dual lets you bet on every game of the turn whether you're betting on the men's or women's side of Things it's time to go dancing on america's number one sports book right now new customers get 200 dollars in bonus bets Your first five dollar bet wins that's 200 bucks season point spreads money lines whatever it may be Just visit fan dual dot com and bet on college hoops until they cut down the nets must be 21 plus in president select states Fan dual is offering online sports wagering in kansas under agreement with kansas star casino llc First online real money wager only $10 first deposit required Bonus issued is now a trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt c terms at sportsbook dot fan dual dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Over some fan dual dot com slash rg colorado iowa michigan New jersey ohio pennsylvania illinois kentucky tennessee virginia north carolina and vermont Call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in arizona 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 for the ccpg dot org slash jack in connecticut 1 800 9 with an indiana 1 800 5 2 2 4700 visit ks gambling health dot com in kansas 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in louisiana visit md gambling health dot org in mariland 1 800 gambler dot net in west virginia 1 800 5 2 2 4700 rio mc hope this year visit gambling helpline m a dot org or call you hundred three two seven 50 50 Or 24 7 support in massachusetts or call 1 8 7 7 i hope and why or text open why in new york Now this trade is a bit old But i haven't got a chance to talk about it yet with stafan diggs going to the houston texas from the buffalo bills I honestly did not think this trade would happen. I thought that diggs was kind of just a Dramatic guy we tended to overblow His sideline antics, but it happened. So here we are with stafan diggs now being on the houston texas And right now if ando sportsbook the bills wind total is 10 and a half over them is minus 106 And the texas are a nine and a half over them is now minus 134 Previously for houston, uh, there over was a plus 104 and nine and a half So a pretty big movement there with them and there's been a lot of talk about stafan diggs and whether or not He's still a good player because the age is up there There wasn't a lot of production towards the back half of last year but i still think that diggs is a good very impactful player and When you look back to last year Part of it was the fact they became a somewhat run-heavy team part of it was you'd see defenses roll their coverage his way because Gabe davis is banged up towards the end There weren't a lot of other threats on that bills team, especially downfield because dalton concade is not a guy That used down the field So I think it was a lot of schematic stuff that led to the lack of production for stafan diggs So I still have high expectations for him and I think that he does boost this houston offense so When I take a look at houston I think this is a good get for them And it did boost them in my win total model an okay amount Couple issues with them right now the first one is that I think the jags are better valued in the asc south and in terms of their Overall projection which makes houston schedule a bit tougher and houston actually does get a downgrade based on their schedule by my numbers If you take their like overall win expectation based on their power rankings I'd be right in line with market over nine and a half wins at minus 134 But they get a downgrade as a result of their schedule of 0.6 wins and that's one of the bigger ones across the entire league actually the It is the third biggest schedule adjustment in the entire league right now new england is a tougher schedule and then minnesota Then it's the houston texas actually the bills are forth as far as tough as schedule as well So I like the texas and I have a very high expectation for them may win from a a power ranking perspective But I still can't get to their win total of nine and a half wins because of how tough that schedule is other tough thing for me is I kind of wish they decided to go And address the defense instead because like I've already got their offense is being very good By my numbers. So like if we're talking about marginal gains I feel like they probably could have had a bigger jewel to their expectation By trying to address their past defense and I've done so by adding to neal hunter If they can get their extremely healthy for an entire year then Maybe We see this texas team the defense out from expectations But that for me right now is the biggest thing holding them back is the fact that their past defense is A little bit in the middle of the pack maybe a bit worse than that So I love cj strout. I love the way this offense is constructed right now I just can't get to to betting them with where things stand I mentioned before the downward adjustment for the the texan schedule the jacksville jaguars do not get a Similar downgrade actually they get a slight upgrade a point one wins So even though I've got the texas as being the better team by a decent margin I still have a slightly higher win total on the jags than I do on the texas So when I look at the afc south market right now, I actually do think there's value in the jags of plus 280 To win the afc south we've seen movement towards the texas as a result of this defund digs trade And they have gone up my win total projections But again when you combine the texan schedule with the jag schedule That's a swing of 0.7 wins and it does make a pretty tangible difference so I don't mind this trade for the texas at all you get a good player who is still I think a productive player didn't give up a ton to get him and the the the money aspect of it They're totally fine there. So I don't I don't mind the trade. I just still think there is value in the jags to win the afc south Because the movement we've seen towards the texan. So I think if there is one takeaway from this defund digs trade for me It's that the text the jags may now be undervalued to win the afc south as a result of The attention the texas have gotten for this trade again. I like the trade I like staphon digs the player and I love this offense But concerned around the texas defense make me think they might be a bit overvalued, especially once you factor in the schedule they'll face so It's a bummer, but I might have to bet against cj strad at some point this year Uh, we'll do so via the futures market the jags to win the afc south at plus 280 On the bill side of things. I'm still right in line at their win total as well again That's 10 and a half over is minus 106 And I think that's about fair now looking at the afc east market The the bills are plus 160 there dolphins plus 170 and the jets are plus 240 I do have this like as being somewhat tight at the top The bills at 10.7 wins the dolphins at 10.2 The jets i'm below market on as we discussed in the win total show earlier on this week or maybe as last week regardless A bit lower on them So I still think the bills should be where they're at, but I think this market is decently efficient I would probably like to buy the bills at some point I think they will address wide receiver in the draft and if they do so I have faith in josh allen I and I don't think that's like an outlandish thought process. Obviously this defense has been gutted They've lost some offensive linemen. They've lost digs. They've lost game davis But it's still josh allen So I want to keep tabs on this ase east market because again i'm below market on the the the jets don't like the patriots My numbers like the dolphins. I don't like them as much personally So that's kind of a tough one there too, but I want to keep tabs here Now the bills lengthen a bit more. Maybe I can buy in at some point there just because I have faith in josh allen not reacting to that right now But do you want to keep tabs potentially? Check it out later on just because I do still think that the bills can win the ase south despite the fact They've had a lot of additions throughout this all season just betting on quarterback And that's betting on josh allen when it comes to the ase east Want to finish up here by talking about some NASCAR in martinsville for this weekend and honestly betting markets at fandall sports But pretty efficient for this week not seeing a lot of value on most drivers There is one exception though and it's a pretty big exception for me And that's buying into daniel suarez and I show value in suarez in every single market He's 101 to win He is 15 to 1 to finish top 5 and he is plus 350 to finish inside the top 10 now You've probably heard the term laddering before i'm sure that tom vekki was used to hear on the show But what laddering is for those of you who are not familiar is you break up your bet into different markets where you place a You place the majority of the market or the majority of your bet on the most generous market Which are here for suarez would be the top 10 bet for a strikeout bet to be like the baseline bet And then you put progressively smaller amounts on the higher upside markets. So for suarez that would mean Putting it the most on the top 10 market putting a bit on the top 5 and then a tiny amount on the outright as well To give yourself upside should suarez wind up winning somewhere. It's like an each way bet And golf where you still cash if suarez finishes inside the top 10 But you give yourself higher upside should he truly spike and win this race For me personally the way I want to play this is take my like one Typical bet size whatever your baseline bet size is just for me talking personally you have to decide based on your own risk But I want to take that one bet and then divide that up Because I don't want to be overexposed just one driver given that you know, he's never won at martinsville Um, he's never finished better than ninth and stuff like that But I don't want to be overexposed so take the overall bet size And place a little bit more than half of it on the top 10 market a little bit less And then you know a little bit less than that or less than that on the top 5 market And then tidy amount on the outright that way you can benefit should he win this race So that's the overall thought process on suarez here Why do I want to bet suarez great question? Let's talk about that right now They've been racing at martinsville in the next gen car for four races and across those four races suarez has two top 10 average running positions There are only nine drivers who have done that including suarez One of those drivers is not in the field. That's eric amarola The other drivers are all 22 to 1 or shorter to win this race chase brisco Is the longest one in 22 to 1 outside of daniel suarez The other guys are like denny hamlin martin trex jr Ryan planey That's where the grand majority of guys are towards the top of the odds board Then he get down to suarez who is all the way down at 100 to 1 to win this race Looking back to last year in the in the in the fall That's one of the races where suarez did not run well mentioned before the two top 10 average running positions he qualified second and seventh in those two races and Ran inside the top 10 didn't finish well But like he had stage points in all four stages stuff like that last fall. He did not run well He finished i think 34th in that race and qualified 27th So you may be like, okay, maybe those two were flukes but during that weekend suarez had the third best 10 lap average in practice He went to account for group differentials. He was very fast in practice and as a result of that Suarez closed for that race at 80 to 1 to win despite the fact he qualified 27 Worked his way through the field. He was running 12th And then uh, there was a wreck. I think joy legano wreck tie gibbs and suarez got caught up in it Not his own doing running 12th at that time He was probably aligned to to work his way inside the top 10 Had he not gotten caught up in that wreck? so each of the paths or races at martinsville suarez had speed whether whether it be during the race or during practice and I feel like it makes sense because you do see some correlation between drivers who are good at road courses and good at martinsville uh, aj almandinger has always been pretty good here Kyle arson finally figured things out last year. So like there is a correlation. They're shifting. They're straightaways There's a lot of braking and stuff like that So I think it anecdotally makes sense suarez would be good here and he's shown it in again I think at least three of the four next gen races So suarez 101 to win this race He is 15 to 1 to finish the inside the top five And plus 350 to finish inside the top 10 if you were to place his one of these bets I would go with the top 10 and plus 350 because again He's never really popped from an upside perspective as far as finishes go at martinsville But I think that is within his range of outcome. So I show value in all three individually I want to ladder this to give myself upside should suarez truly truly pop this weekend, but If you're taking just one, I'd go with the top 10 market at plus 350 Do you have time to dig into the XINITY or truck series markets here for today on the show? But I'll have full write-ups on my win simulations for both of those over on fendall research later on today So if you want full sims for the uh truck series and XINITY series Go to fendall.com and slash research and I'll have that up later on today That's all we got here for the podcast support today big Thank you once again to austin cast for swinging by breaking down his thoughts on epl Matchweek 32 find austin on twitter at austin cast. I am on twitter at gymsanus You can also follow fendall research on twitter at fendall research I want to thank you all for tuning in for today and throughout this entire week Good luck to you with your bets this weekend. Enjoy all the basketball Enjoy the soccer the baseball the nascar and the formula one We'll talk to you once again on monday to preview the mens national championship This has been covering the spread right here on the fendall podcast network