 Thanks for having me it's a good time to go along with the rain and Finally, we can actually see the screen which is also a big advantage of being a little darker So I'm going to try to stay here on the spotlight so you can see the rest of me So industry enough. I was listening to the presentations earlier I was actually the worst possible business in the world and you can guess what that is the music business I Worked in digital music for about ten years. That's after I was a musician and producer and I had my company a very lucrative bankruptcy in 2001 and that taught me a lot about how to start companies and I realized in 2002 when I was writing my book my first book called the future of music that I was actually Always five years too early with my ideas And so out of that I made a job That as you can see today being years earlier is a better job than to actually spend money on the ideas five years too early so the topic of my presentation is looking backwards from the future and I say looking backwards because I think it's a big difference if We take what we have today and extrapolate into the future. We get more of what we have today usually But if we zoom into the future and say what is likely to happen in five years and most of us know what that is clearly There's clear trends and then work backwards of how we're going to participate I give an example one of my clients is a car company a big car manufacturer, and it's quite clear that in 10 We will be having self-driving electric shared public cars that people use in major cities that drive themselves So if you accept that as the future What are you going to do about it? So I work backwards from the future. That's sort of my business model. You can download this rather elaborate presentation Probably have to shortcut a little bit for my Dropbox server. That's has a fancy name. It's called good cloud But it's basically just dropbox. Okay It has a public directory so you can look up Anything you want also my free books are also on there. Don't do it now Please do it later, but easy to remember all my website future was good calm So my job description in the in the best way is this little Animation here. I take a lot of different information and and bubbles and I put them together into What I call a realization and I do that for my clients to try to get them to understand What is the core of what's happening? Go back to the music business. What is the core of what was happening with the music business? Well simply music is moving into the cloud and becoming disembodied and Access is reflating ownership and that was clear 1999 But until now we had solid refusal of this idea So that resulted of course in some pretty good upheaval the motto of my company is that it wasn't raining when Noah built the Ark It's kind of interesting that we say that knock because it's raining right now So we have a good occasion to actually stress this so I'm going back to the car idea What I would like to exercise with you today Let's practice looking five years into the future back on what we're doing now and think about what can happen in the meantime I'm going to start with a quote by Tim O'Reilly who's a publisher that you may know of course from the US How many US people do we have here? Okay, I'm gonna do some serious assault on the US So I give you a warning shortly coming up, but Tim O'Reilly who is from America, but nevertheless a nice person Work on stuff that matters he says and this is the interest while we're talking about money This is a good quote to start with he says money is like gas in the car You needed not to get stranded without gas. He couldn't drive, but a well-lived life is not a tour of gas stations So I wanted to introduce you to that thought initially when you're thinking about investment and make a money I was listening to the conversations early Kind of as a warning point number one The internet as we know it is probably over And this is tough because you know I was involved in the very very beginning of the internet What we have today was about 2.6 billion people online Another 3 billion coming in the next five years cannot possibly be the same thing that we're going to have in five years First of all 80% of the new internet is mobile So this means a complete demise of advertising for example, you know cookies Are you gonna have cookies across, you know 20 platforms and the whole business model of the web, you know Being decentralized and and so on. I'll give you some more information there shortly, but here's a great example When he had the terror attacks in Boston Two weeks afterwards the police was going to Google and looking for people who had searched backpacks and pressure cookers in the same day Because the attack was carried out with a backpack and a pressure cooker And they looked at people and said who has searched for these terms in the neighborhood of Boston about 50 miles They found 150 people and they sent the terror squad to 150 people who had googled And this is a reality. This is a real story So if you had googled this you would get a visit from 10 people in an armored car Rating a house because of what you had googled Now clearly this is not the internet that we want or that we grew up with what is the future of this? Well, you have to pay more if your grocery bill is paid with the electric, you know with the radio frequency chip Well, you have to pay more because you insurer knows that you've bought whiskey and cigarettes same thing So the internet is changing dramatically with this and clearly now you've seen all the recent stories about what has happened here an Interesting angle Did you know in fact that the advertisers and marketers around the world use exactly the same tracking technologies as the NSA and The NSA is using similar mechanisms and Facebook So the mechanisms to do the good in parentheses are also the same ones to do the bad So what we have now is in many ways we have, you know, if you like to play pinball, you know what this is We've tilted the box and we've upset the game that kicked the pinball game and tilted it That's what happens right now So we have this huge debate as I'm sure you're aware of European Commission wants to build its own internet where information from Europe cannot go to America unless they agree to how it would go The Brazilians have the same idea. Of course, that's an illusion tactically not really feasible, but what we're seeing here is clearly We're living in a military term here the VUCA world, which is volatility ambiguity uncertainty and complexity And that's our future in a nutshell Out of that out of this I would see a ton of opportunities, but also challenges I lived in America for 13 years and in America, of course, the philosophy is by and large If there is a problem will invent something to fix it Which is great, you know, that's how new ideas are being born But what is coming out of this wave? You know this this stack of waves of opportunities in this VUCA world is things like this You know where we years ago. We had Star Trek with the tricorder now. We got this guy His name is I think andraka who is about to win the expires challenge to build such a tricorder That you can cough into and prick your finger and we'll give you a better diagnosis and your doctor anywhere in the world So and this is a funny part, you know, if you're a little bit into science fiction like movies or books You realize a lot of that stuff that we talked laughed about is actually real now In many ways, it's so scarily real like the story with Google and the pressure cooker It could be straight out of a corey doctor of novel What we're seeing today and we're only at the very beginning In terms of technology changing our society, we're at point 1.5 of 500 in terms of that change that's coming So it's great opportunities and challenges coming up folks Not but if you look at all the stuff that we saw in the movies like Total recall of my friend Schwarzenegger, you know, the Johnny cab that drives itself. We have that now We have the Google car as a taxi We don't have that yet. Oh, he'd be here shortly Las Vegas That's working on this We're living in a time of exponential growth if you're an investor. This is fantastic very high risk very high opportunity But exponential growth has something that's driving it right now and that is by and large our official intelligence And with that I mean smart machines Ultra intelligent software software agents prediction software automated search voice gesture control and so on and so on Kind of science fiction II which I explain a little bit more shortly We have already seen this that of course in our reality is quite clear Mobile devices are our external brain as Marshall McLuhan said 1974 the extension of man In fact, you could argue that without our mobiles. We're basically, you know, we're basically not functional We're sort of impotent If we can't look up something on our mobile device. We're not fully functional Think about this five years from now If we don't have Google glass as a professor, you're screwed You can't look up your live feed about data if you're meeting somebody that Rachel. We don't have Google glass You're disadvantaged just like you don't have a mobile. So these devices are becoming our external brains And we're moving into a world that I call connected intelligent everything and as investors and entrepreneurs, of course This is a goldmine clearly Because all the cool stuff we can we can invent is based on this basic assumption. I was in Zanzibar Tanzania to visit my son who worked there a couple months ago and when I got there I realized I was always on the cloud sucking stuff off the cloud, you know My of course my emails but also my intelligence my news my videos everything when I got there I realized there is no cloud there, right didn't works gprs So I'm just gonna either I stopped to exist basically And this is a little piece of our future so connected intelligent everything means connected traffic lights Los Angeles just put 4,700 traffic lights on a network and Doing that they can save 10% of gas and pollution on every morning commute By connecting all those traffic lights Credit cards that connect to the internet the fridge that connects to the internet the mobile applications for traveling the connected car The screens and advertising connected learning. We talked about that. I think yesterday Connected credit cards connected books Books with hyperlinks is what we have now with a Kindle The connected watch. I don't know why you would ever buy such a thing, but people do seem to want it and Of course radio frequency chips and connected Communications with the green grid and so on and so on a connected street light This is our reality and this street light will know when you've passed because of your Bluetooth Mac address Like the garbage bin already does This street light will know what the weather is and how much pollution there is and so on and so on and so on, right? So think about what this will do for our privacy think of the goldmine for advertisers and For the police at the same time or for anybody else who cares to crack it Connected credit cards again, so we're moving into a world like this Which is basically hyper connected and peer-to-peer and decentralized Well decentralized not quite I'll talk about that shortly, but in this world We have variables of course wearable computing and we have what's called invisibles Which is the invisible computing because once you have a Wikipedia brain implant, which is feasible Nobody will know that you have one. I Mean you can have an Alzheimer's brain implant it works right it keeps people outside of their zone of attack So this is happening DIY medicine the quantified self Telemedicine all great places to invest in clearly maybe not the quantified if as I call it But the quantified self very interesting the internet of things like this device called the nest. I'm sure you've heard about Connects your house to the to the smart grid and with the others that are using it now There's discussion in California to make up mandatory Because people that use this we could save 40% of energy if we're using a smart system a smart meter To control our devices and to compare how we can save So the internet of things is the next really big wave of connected devices that is going to be extremely powerful But here's the problem We're living in this really hyper connected world But our business models are disconnected To a very large degree because we're only focusing on what we are doing We're only focusing on a tiny piece of that slice without thinking about the large story and This is the demise of publishing the music business and banking because thinking only over your one slice Can you hear me okay with this thing seems like it's dropping out a little bit do we have battery problems? My battery is fine, but maybe this device so To take it a little bit further out Working on a new book that's on this topic But essentially what we're seeing here is that we're taking this invariable term in what I call the future of capitalism Which would take about five days to explain but Essentially taken a turn from what I call an Ego system to an ecosystem so a biosphere of connected businesses if you're looking at the successful businesses in the last ten years They've all done this They have created new ecosystems Whether it's in telecom or in media like Netflix or Amazon with the publishing with Kindle I mean, it's clearly becoming a shift to this idea of a biosphere and Then we have the anti shift of this like this is Brazil This is G. Marosev saying you know she hates Obama because of the spying that was done on her personally by the NSA So we have this rift of companies and and of course continents as you can see here wanting to own the internet themselves So I call this ultra exponential change. I'm going to use records while it's exponentiality. We take it one step further ultra exponential These terms here are becoming reality Ultra fast ultra mobile ultra intelligent. This is very scary When you think about it what that means Can machines actually become sentient, you know, can they become conscious because they're intelligent? ultra connected convenient transparent ultra addictive I Mean it's completely clear that we're completely addicted to technology And many business plans that I see there are addiction devices There's nothing wrong with that a car is an addiction or drink and coffee is an addiction, right? But think about that for a second How much money can you make with a company that's built on the premise of building a mousetrap? Which most addictions are Take it one step further The content business where I worked in for a long time. We can see this exponentiality at work YouTube has one point one billion users One point one bill is the biggest broadcast in the world What's happening here is that because of this exponential technology is that attention is replacing distribution And this is a revolution of course for media You still need distribution of course, you know if you're going to watch a football game with a hundred million people You can't do it on the mobile not yet So that's there's a window there So interesting enough example what happens to advertising here is that advertisers that are based on disruption won't survive That's a billion dollar industry you shift if you want to invest somewhere invest in the future of advertising Because that's about the change very radically just like the music business So we have this fragmentation. Can we change this microphone? I think it's keeps dropping out or some you guys there over there Okay, I Mean I can probably fill the space here without the microphone, but it's kind of annoying if you have another one I'll take another one So we see this fragmentation happening in in what I call the information monopolies Have another one Sorry guys Apologize to the to the entire world. That's all 24 people who are watching the webcast. I'm just kidding probably at least 27 people probably more Cutting edge than my talk You can just stick in my pocket, you know Okay, good. All right. Thank you Okay All right, so there's a problem in media It's not that we don't want to watch television or read a newspaper is that the information monopoly is toast Maybe we're watching television. We can also watch another 50 channels of over-the-top stuff And you know, why would you do that if you have a choice? I mean, it's not that we have court cutters We have court never's who never signed up for for cable. I mean cable never's you know, we never actually sign up for it So information monopoly is toast as you can see, you know Americans are turning to Netflix to watch everything online What happens to advertising here? This is a huge shift To attention not distribution. Sorry wrong button here so And then we have this effect I think this is you know if you want to invest somewhere else or do a startup This is a good turf now with Twitter go in public. This is even better turf The internet has turned into a giant firehose of stuff and Now that we have the Brazilians and Chinese and all the Africans and all everyone else in the world coming online This flood of information this noise is going to be explosive Think about all the books that are awaiting us when we have automatic translation, which is here So all the Chinese can publish books and we can read them in German or Finnish or Swiss German for that matter So think about what we need then and then think about what's happening with mobile is that the mobile phone as I was saying earlier Is in fact running our lives as This cartoon aptly shows, you know, we're think we're running it, but it's actually kind of running us So in this future that is bound to be extremely noisy and Multifaceted and complex we need this I would need filters humanizers sense makers curators interfaces Well, that kind of sounds like a publisher doesn't it what we need tools and people who do this more than before And this is a really fertile area as I was said looking early at some of the presentations a company like paper Lee which is in Switzerland is one of those examples that make sense out of the firehose So I think making sense of the fire out of the firehose is a fifty billion dollar business because it applies to all media and It applies to advertising The firehose is kind of unavoidable The thing that's happening with free content, of course as we now find out We didn't pay so we became the content We are the show of Facebook We are the content of Facebook and we are the content of the NSA I mean we we are the ones who are actually providing the show there and in all those cases And I think that's going to change in the future Because as this slide shows you know the song goes you ain't see nothing yet Because what we're going to see is a huge explosion of data computing power Smart software artificial intelligence and the sharing velocity Again, we're only at 1.5 out of 500 Imagine if you feel like you confuse today because you're getting a 550 messages and and huge Twitter and all these things So what the future holds for you here? It can't possibly be that because we used a digital technology that we're actually worse off than before With constant overload and you know never really any time to catch up on anything So that's a huge thing. I think interface revolutions speaking to devices. This is becoming a standard Speaking to your computer and search like Google has already done this gesture control Blinking I don't think about this consequence type speak gesture blink think That's where we're going The last point is the tough point Thinking and computing will become the same thing. I don't really know what to think of this If I can still think when I can blink or whatever but in any case I think what we're seeing here is a vast amount of innovation Many of them driven by this monster Not Godzilla, but big data There's a lot of talk about big data because it's sort of like social media now when you use the headline You can make money speaking about it, but big data is a huge driver of all of these things Because data now is becoming the currency When you think about this I looked at the other day When you're looking at all your Google searches and the Gmail and all the location sharing from the last seven years I did it's quite likely that Google knows me better than my wife Because of all the explicit data that's in there I mean you don't you don't talk to people and say I googled for fungus cream or something Right, but if you have all this stuff together this information is huge Think about that. I mean think about what can be done or not be done with information So it's indeed like oil. I think the data economy will be bigger than the oil economy The fossil fuel economy is of course roughly owned by four companies just like the record labels It's roughly 3.8 trillion dollars a year and we're completely hooked on that. I mean, it's unavoidable for the time being Data is going to take over that slot as a key driver of economy Because we're producing it all it's endless and it doesn't have side effects Not yet So I think this is why it's very important That we don't create more BPs and Exxon mobiles in the data business We don't want companies to be able to do what BP has done, which is to take everything give nothing back and destroy us in the process So when we talk about big data We're going to need some sort of way of figuring out how this can actually benefit the entire system And this is what we're doing right now Of course and the current debates about what's happening with search engines and privacy and data and all that stuff So here's our good friend general Alexander The main culprit behind the current data crisis and if you're looking for more information you can use my hashtag data wars To find out more what's happening and why this is relevant to your business because doesn't look like it from the outside but it is he's built himself a This is the architect screenshot. He's built himself a Star Trek type command center and The header of his office is the information dominance center That is what he calls his office They can see what's happening with data. I mean the holy grail of all that stuff as you know, I'm sure you're looking at every single day prediction anticipation and meta intelligence Because you can safely predict what people will buy when you have enough data You can predict if I should marry you because your DNA is different than mine cost 800 dollars each Is it useful? Is there is that a business or is it just plain creepy? This is stuff that's happening all over the world. So what we're seeing here today And I think this is really important to look at is what I call data greed So just like the old companies basically controlled everything including our politics Now we're seeing the same thing happen with data And I would propose to you that this is not a good business Because it's abusive when you abuse the consumer with their data Regardless of the fact how good Google or Facebook is eventually we get pissed off. I Mean if you ask people in the UK, are they okay with being surveilled by the GS HQ or whoever most of them say why it's okay Because you know they keep the terrorists away from me You ask Germans. They're all completely different So it's a cultural question. But what we're seeing here is that data greed has driven the sort of first wave of what's happening with data Advertises want better feeds to sell more stuff governments want more information This is sort of a one-way street. It's a bit of a stopgap a thing. So for example garbage cans in London That scan for Bluetooth if you have an open Bluetooth connection They will find out who you are and your MAC address of your phone And they will keep that data and compare how many times you've gone by They don't know it's you but they know it's a device That's meta data meta intelligence So up using shared data is not a business model I see many business models where this is the business plan We're going to use the fact that most consumers are acting like idiots. We're going to use that to create a business model Not a good idea In fact, I would propose that if Facebook doesn't change their stance on these things We'll be looking at face toast in three years. This is the biggest problem Why would we keep on trusting them? Same goes for Google so Global privacy failure now we we have sort of privacy failure now If you've watched minority report you can take the red pill the blue pill So red pill will show you what's actually happening the blue pill you stay happy and don't know what's happening That's not a good choice Because in the end all of us none of us can go off the grid I mean if we weren't using LinkedIn or All the other stuff that we used to our business will be a lot harder We can't actually get off the grid. So this is kind of a failure that we have to look at And so ultimately I think if our future evolves in this direction to where we are becoming by default Naked and transparent and we can't do much about it Then I would say the question is do we have to end all privacy to maintain a perfect illusion of security? And if you're making a business model out of this Not a good idea. I mean as Obama said himself. You can't be a hundred percent private and a hundred percent secure So his consequence is you'll be a hundred percent naked and one percent private one percent secure I Can't see the logic behind this and this is an artificial choice, of course We know this you know in the end technology good technology should not enforce a yes or no behavior It's a question of the answer is it depends So the knowledge has to be flexible enough for me to allow to use it when I need it But not make me a slave of it They will buy a car and in return I cut my legs off because I only drive Makes no sense And this is a fake choice. It's been given to us by by politics Of course is the idea of saying that we either on or we're not on and it shouldn't be that way So that's kind of a system failure So in many ways you can say that in the last five years. We've been starting to boil the frog And that's kind of a term for saying that you put the frog in the I mean don't do this It's just an explanation You put the frog in the in the in the pan and then you gradually turn up the heat the frog doesn't know It's gradually turning up right because it's gradual, but nevertheless he ends up being fried So what we have done with consumers is two and a half billion of them We've boiled the frog We've been cranking up the heat with appetizing with surveillance with elaborate business model with with the mousetraps You know with all the fancy stuff we invent But in the end we're doing this And I would basically say in the future we can't do any of this Because it's becoming apparent that we've been boiling I mean if you're looking at what people are saying around the world, you know this kind of faustian bargain that we have for example with Google I Mean I love all the Google products Google as a client But if we're gonna do a faustian pact, which means that we sell something to get something it better be good and Revocable I Mean we have to be empowered in this otherwise. I think the future is like this this phone Crypto phone you can buy is the first phone that does not broadcast your location and it's encrypted and They have a waiting list that you would go goes from here to Madrid It's gonna cost some 3,000 euros Now there is a business to invest in the rich people can be private again I Mean if you're looking at all that whole sector you can buy your privacy by having fancy tools In what happens you also with advertising is that this used to be the old paradigm of advertising You know, dazzle them, addict them flood them and then sell them That's kind of a rough description though, of course There's a great quote by Peter Drucker who says The greatest danger in times of change and turbulence is not the change itself, but to act with yesterday's logic If you're gonna invest in companies today or start a company don't do this That's yesterday's logic yesterday's logic is you do whatever you can to exploit the system and then it's YBG YBG I you'll be gone. I'll be gone after you're gone Won't work. It's too late. I have to think of it in a larger way So here it's a little bit hard to see from the back there But we can see the total reset of advertising as a result. I just did a conference on this yesterday So it's a fresh topic. In fact, we can see that the advertisers are looking to become superpowers You know in terms of getting data just like the NSA is looking to become a superpower. There's lots of parallels there So I think we're going to see this is a billion 650 billion dollars a year industry advertising We're going to see the rebirth of advertising as non abusive meaningful relevant wanted personalized service And that is happening the next three years I think that's quite a few startups here working on this when I was watching the presentations earlier very powerful business The other thing is it's quite certain that we're going to start paying for privacy What we have done the first generation of the internet is we said anything that's free and cool will use Because it has to be free We all did this right so bit on is cool because you know, but now Netflix is cooler That's better. It's cheap and Spotify is better than YouTube So now we're switching to this idea of saying well, maybe we'll pay to make it better Or we'll pay to make it private And this is a basis for example this guy is here from ad tracks It's a box you can buy a hundred thirty dollars will buy you a box that cuts off all of the ads on your video streams And your house system all of it audio and video and lets you watch all of YouTube without ads for example It's a box that filters out the ads Or own cloud which are just installed. It's like Dropbox, but runs on your own server So you see in this trend towards paying for privacy Basically this idea of saying okay, you're going to pay is less free but more private That's a growth business. In fact, I don't know why somebody doesn't start a Facebook that's paid It does not have investors. I've been thinking about I'm kind of busy, but seems like an interesting opportunity Because would I pay 20 bucks a year like I pay for Flickr to do what Facebook does Without ads without investors Without being sold out essentially. I mean, I'm a Facebook user. So I'm consenting to it, right? But still Okay for the Americans in the room. Sorry guys. I Lived in America for 14 years. I went to school in America and now we're observing with the current situation What's happening is that pretty much anywhere in the world we have the stumps down for what America is doing and And the big shift here is of course now in technology is that most of the innovation still comes from there clearly That's why we're here But there's what I call a shift opportunity For example in cloud computing There's already people predicting we have a shift of 35 billion dollars a year to Europe for secure cloud computing in countries Well, they don't have the Patrick act and fees are courts. I mean, it's obvious I live in Switzerland. I told the Swiss government you guys can make 20 billion out of this if you act quickly. It's obvious And it won't have happened it won't change in America for quite some time at least that's how I look at it So we're seeing the shift opportunity here in the fact for example that all of the big platforms on the web are American but most of the users are not 80% of most of the users are actually international users So imagine what happens if we shift that over to those platforms Of course in the end we have to say nothing is really as good as what Google is doing with search There is no alternative for Google search. Maybe one of you can solve that problem And so we have this whole thing about cloud computing. I think this is a fantastic opportunity for European businesses this shift opportunity and then Alvin toff the More probably most famous futures he talks about what's happening with the knowledge revolution This is also I think not just a knowledge like education, but also business intelligence We're seeing the third level of the revolutions the knowledge revolution and the human resource revolution This is was actually a slide from the 60s So he talks about this and and says we're seeing a silly the shift from this industrial mindset That many of us grew up with an essentially production oriented To a connected mindset Selling things that are mostly virtual So in this we have the shift to digital exponential. It's a it's truly a knowledge revolution Education business intelligence big data e-commerce Mobile it's all driven by this basic fact Now McKinsey has a great study that you can reach it called. It's called the disruptive trends or so from McKinsey Institute It's about 80 pages one of them talks about what's happening with the automation of knowledge work. I Mean think about this for a second artificial intelligence natural user interface big data technologies If you're a data enter or an analyst Software will take your job If you're a cab driver Robot will take your job if you check out clerk Our fits will take your job There's some people predicting that we may lose as many as one billion jobs to automation and there's only 3.5 billion jobs in the world so every third job and This is all gonna happen in the next five years So you can be a driver behind this and invent these cool things right or you can also deal with the consequence Which is whatever we're gonna do with those people Will they have a guaranteed minimum income which is what we're debating in Switzerland I'm not gonna get into that because it will take the next three days here But so what is starting to happen here is the creation of a knowledge cloud What Marsha McLoone calls the global brain in the global village and Here on this knowledge cloud. We have the answer to a lot of large-scale problems for example virus and Inventing of medicine and so on and so on and crowdsourcing and all this trends that we're seeing that's all part of the knowledge cloud So if I had the dollar to spend I would put it here first Because this is clearly an area that is going to be absolutely needed no matter how you look at it And that's already widely at swing and the other thing is that we're seeing now the incumbents like banks insurance companies Or financial or consulting companies like KPMG and others They are in deep trouble with this now because all of a sudden the information superiority is toast I mean, do I talk to my bank about where I should invest? I mean, I can just use software to find that I mean, I can go to a tweet stock and then they will tell me what what will rise tomorrow and they're pretty accurate So Information superiority is not a sustainable advantage We're talking we're talking about this at lunch earlier And basically what's happening here is that this idea of getting information is replaced by the idea of wisdom By having human information that actually has gone through all that data It's one step beyond this. So this is why for example education is going to be completely digitized textbooks on mobile devices peer-to-peer learning videos certifications huge trend there So as I was saying earlier in this sort of knowledge revolution We're moving from from data and information and and just your cut and paste learning like we did at university You know, you learn this for later, then you forget it We're moving to a different kind of learning which is this network paradigm is Explaining you know from data to information to knowledge to wisdom and we're moving in this direction here So basically all of the value is concentrating here on knowledge and wisdom rather than data And this is the path that Twitter is going You know where Twitter is now right is not even on this chart is it's up here Perpetual noise generator hands the wheel I'm very happy to use it. I mean I love Twitter But you know is a long path for those guys to end up down here, which is the Guardian folks up But the garden is losing 20 million dollars a year. So so what is the business model for that? But clearly this is the trend of where we're going and that's also the place to invest if you if you can't ever get down here Don't spend a dollar because the rest is just noise So more more signal less noise and then we have this overlap of human machines I talked about this earlier records while Who I like to quote because I I don't agree with most of what he's saying But watch his movie called the transcendent man if you want to get really worried about the future watch his movie And here's a quote from me says a search engines won't wait for us to ask for information. They will know you like a friend a Way of your concerns and interest at a detailed level we can replace this and say they'll know you like an enemy if you wish But this is already happening Google now. That's what they do In less than two years, we're not going to be searching anything Information will come to us based on our profile and our complex profiles, you know Better than my wife profiles. I mean, this is technology-wise. It's all already there So it's about this is about social issues so Great place to look at for investments also for starting stuff is a dramatic evolution of this human machine relationships How does this all go together? Because exponential technology means what used to be so cost prohibitive two years from now is going to be less than a cup of espresso I mean think about DNA analysis a hundred thousand euros five years ago now eight hundred Three years fifty dollars. So what happens here is? Dramatic in terms of change and if you've seen this movie robot and Frank Take a look To see which way this is going Robots are already doing elder care These robots are now being sold for five thousand dollars. They used to be a hundred thousand dollars You have a grandmother who can't lift herself out of bed. You can get the robot to do it. Is that socially acceptable? I don't know. You've been my guest to figure this out But basically, I think there's a bit of a reset that we have to do inside of our heads As I was saying going backwards from the future If we go forward from today, then we're going to say, you know, we'll get smart on mobile And we have better data and we have more privacy. It's all kind of obvious But if we go backwards in the future in five years, you know, we will have machines that will do a lot of that work for us And we can then move into a different direction Let me bring up the sound a little bit Just bring me some cereal that cereal is full of unhealthy ingredients. I threw it away Don't throw away my stuff Frank. That cereal is for children. Enjoy this grapefruit. You're for children stupid Today, we're going to start a garden Fuck this shit Frank you need a project mental stimulation plus a real seat another example is this one is actually better Can you fly that thing? Not yet Operator tank. I need a pilot program for a B212 helicopter All right Well, you've seen this scene, so it's obviously going to be a while before that happens, right? but It's only a marginal difference when you think about that I will use Google Glass To summon up information while I'm talking to you So I'll appear even clever than I am now because I'm connected with this thing and it will give me a feedback from you I'll be a lot better than the other guy who doesn't have it. This is only a gradual step forward So what we'll need for this and this is the flip side of technology and while you're busy inventing the next mousetrap You know, you can also think about How machines and humans actually require new social contracts because that's what it's about What is acceptable? What of that use of data is acceptable? I was telling yesterday the advertisers at this summit that in the future to do any Advertising we're going to need a digital bill of rights like a bill of because it's a human right to be private, right? So if we don't have that we can't actually use this technology Because we'll always be getting to those points where people saying oh, this is really creepy. I hate you Another ones are saying this is really cool. I love you. So what do we do? So how is that a business model? So while you're working on technology, I would encourage you to look at exponential Technology process, you know as Google calls it 10x thinking I'm sure you heard that before right clearly makes sense But you look at human issues Because in the end you will be successful as a company by based on human success not on machines talking to machines Yeah, unless you're a machine yourself So it's about the balance. I mean if we're looking at this, you know, many sort of mechanical jobs Will shift to smart software engines and the likes of Google and others are working on that I mean the Google self-driving car could easily Be erasing about 27 million jobs of drivers. I Mean it won't happen in Rome, you know a bit too complex or but Singapore Beijing Yeah He's a long list, you know of people who would be kicked out of this food chain your accountants and clerks and tax preparers and We think about the entire audit industry What that's a software job, isn't it as far as I can see? I mean it's a human component to it, but you know so there'll be lots of changes coming up there and The futurist friend of mine Thomas Frye says 47% of US jobs are at risk of being automated away There's a good side to this. I'll get to it in a second before you hear willed and shock right so What that means for us is that we're moving back to what we can actually do best Which is not to just focus on the left brain and constant rows of numbers and equations But on the right brain on design on interface on Negotiation on things that can be done only by us because we're we're not a machine and human only test I mean investing is such a task Because if you could run a spreadsheet and then say okay clearly I'm gonna be rich if I invest in these guys You know then you can just use a spreadsheet But it's not It's a much more interactive process in this right so basically human only task on top of smart data Because those jobs won't be available for everyone because hard for a cab driver to do this kind of job clearly so We're heading into a future to where these from the 16th century. I'm Henry Poincare who says that logic proves But intuition discovers and I think this is what investing is all about when I was in position was quite clear You know, it's logical to play this, but is it good? That's art and craft. There's two different things So I think this is important to keep in mind also what Marshall McLuhan said in that context Kind of a scary reminder First we build the tools Then they build us This is something we don't want with the technology that we're building now and There's a lot of debate about this. I mean clearly this is something to keep a good eye on Machines don't have ethics technology doesn't have ethics and Some technologies don't have ethics I'm going to go any further but So the question there is, you know, how does this make sense in the long one not just financially but also otherwise And the singularity poses such a question to me Singularity is the point of when humans and machines are converging. That's the point of singularity That's essentially thinking of humans as machines I think it's a dead end To be frank, but nevertheless, you know using machines is our reality But maybe not in this way So let's go back to the beginning and then we'll wrap up for some questions The concept of business becoming more like a biosphere. I Mean this is you can see this clearly every single day. This is why we have government shutdown in America Because it's not a biosphere It's basically an ego an ego system not an eco system. I Mean it's that's not bad thing about Americans. This is a problem overall. Let's not focus on just that But as Tiffany Schlein points out in her movie connected when we're now living in a world where everything is connected what you're inventing Somebody else is working on what you're inventing here Maybe useful in China for a month and then be a possible in Australia and move around the world in such a way So that we have a situation where we're facing what's called interdependence We're living in an interdependent world I've been working on my book from ego to eco for three years three months ago a Researcher from MIT published a book called from ecosystem to ecosystem That he's been working on for ten years Now if you Google ego to eco you find me not his book, but my book is toast Because what he writes about is exactly what I wanted to write Because we're interdependent We don't live on a separate place So when you're investing in technology you have to think of the consequences and the ecosystem not just one of the trees That was okay 15 years ago or even five years ago As politics are aptly proven turkish prime minister Said when the riots were happening that social media is a menace to society And look what you have in turkey now which complete unresolved Situation that nobody knows what's happening next and definitely not joining the European Union while in Brazil you have the same problem and Gima Rousseff says I Salute the protest. I put the by the bus fare back to what it was and we'll talk through Twitter about how we can solve this problem She's thinking about interdependence and he's thinking about independence like his own independence Won't work This is just an example from politics, but it's very much the same So as we approach in this situation, this is the Osani tribe in Africa They're playing a game there and it's basically the realization of this is that our ecosystems are built on value circles not value chains When you go to business school, which I thankfully didn't have the pleasure to You talk about value chains There's no value chain because it's just ends the chain ends eventually. We need a value cycle This is nicely expressed by Ume Hraik in his book about the 21st century capitalism and a company like Patagonia is doing this Patagonia advertised three years ago in the US with a huge campaign that you may have seen it says don't buy this jacket That was the head of the campaign Says if you have a jacket send it to us will fix it If you're tired of it sell it for used on eBay and you can swap and if you don't have another choice buy a jacket Result the last three years 15% more sales per year Right sounds like a gimmick, right, but they believe in it and So does Unilever when they are saying our products may be more more expensive But we're trying to do the right thing with our logistics and supplies Electric cars make a great example tomorrow somebody today somebody talked about Tesla So what we have here is that our opportunity for example is to build tomorrow's ecosystem Not to replicate yesterday's ecosystem or ecosystem or amend it Why do you think the likes of BMW and Audi Volvo are so worried about the electric car? Because in the end it's not about cars. It's about mobility So this ecosystem is a huge opportunity This is why Google is playing in this tour if Google is not a car company Google is not going to build those cars. Google is scaring the wits out of the other guys to get going The rising tide floats all boats and what are you going to do in your self-driving car? You use Google, right? Make sense so Building tomorrow's ecosystem is what you should be investing in You can invest in today's ecosystem may make some money, but this is a big story renewable energy Self-driving cars the new forms of media Already talked about this so I want to sign off with a quote from my friend Albert here Albert Einstein that I met at the Wax Museum, and he looks kind of old, but he didn't say much, but he said Creativity is a residue of time wasted. I think this is no more more important than today When we're always looking to not waste time so we can be more efficient And I think this is a trap that goes back to what I was saying earlier about machine thinking We are thinking that if we are fast and efficient machines, we can make more money But the truth is of course is the reverse. I'm sure you know that if you are a successful investor That's not the way it works So I'm gonna leave you with this thought and thanks for your attention You can download this slide show when I get online sometime tonight in Cudder case Go to future was girl calm to download this. Thanks very much for your time