 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of theactionsandtrader.com. Nightly update show up everybody is doing well. Second day of 2024 is in the books. And now we have a chance to see a little bit clearer picture of what happens next. Before we go on, if you are branding to the channel, thank you very much for joining us, spending a few minutes with us. All we ask is kindly like, spend a second, kindly like, share, or subscribe or comment. Anything all the above will give you a really good enhanced version of what we're trying to do here. Communicate with other traders and share your experiences. So let's talk about it, right? Let's talk about it really, really quickly and after taking my son and his buddies to practice. Long story. Anyway, so yesterday we had the first day of January. Not really a great way to kick off the year. NASDAQ was down about 1.6% while the Dow Jones pretty much squeaked out a little bit of a profit. And the question was going into today's session was, well, is this going to be strictly money coming out of technology going into other names? Because if you guys remember yesterday, we talked about the biotech names. Abbey, again, a second day run. NC, we talked about yesterday, had a second day run. Citibank, had a second day run. And you look at all the other names we talked about, they kind of rest a little bit. The Kellogg's of the world, the Procter and Gamble's of the world. So the question was, is this going to be strictly money coming out of technology and go with everything else? Or is technology stocks going to take everything down? This afternoon, we had the Fed Minutes, basically a reiteration of what happened from the previous FOMC meeting. A little bit of a double stance, not really clear language when these potential rate cuts are going to be started in from... They're looking for Australian PMI deposit and services. There we go. Sorry about that. And it wasn't really clear of how the market was going to respond for very unclear language. And slowly but surely, we got that question answered and the market sold off. Cues pretty much closed within 50, 60 cents of the lows. We talked about it last night on the video. Any close below 400 is not a good thing for the bulls. Now, granted, I want to be very, very clear here. It doesn't mean that this is a death sentence now. It doesn't mean that at all. Again, the overall formation of the market is still incredibly bullish from last year. That's an obvious. But from an intermediate interval, there is a negative connotation attached to this taper now. Because now this is the first close below the 20-day moving average. If you go back to the last time we tested the 20-day moving average, the bulls held here on December 04. And then we started to rally again. Yesterday we held it and today we confirmed it down. Like I suggested yesterday, does it mean that the market is going to go straight down in one day? Of course not. There's going to be rallies, there's going to be sell-offs. But the last thing you want to do and see, especially if you are a technology investor or a permeable in all aspects, is the longer the bears continue to build below 400, the closer they start putting in a new ceiling, putting in a new base below or floor below that 400 area, which is the 20-day, the higher probability it will get down to this 390 level. So the bulls really need to kind of wake up. They kind of need to wake up in the next couple of days and start reclaiming back the 20-day moving average or 390. 390 will be in our future. And if you look at the predominant strong figureheads of the NASDAQ 100, you can see the continued weakness. Apple continues to slide, putting a lower high or lower low today. AMD did exactly the same thing. AMD had a phenomenal run for 2023. Again, three consecutive days of pretty much washouts. NVIDIA is getting very, very close to the 50-day moving average, guys. And that's the most important part. Again, if you are brand new to trading or just brand new to technical analysis, I don't care how you trade, what you trade, it's very basic. The most basic thing about price action is anything above the 50-day is bullish. Anything below the 50-day is bearish. Again, you can clearly see here just on the video. When the video slipped below this blue line below the 50-day, it went down two weeks. When it got above the 50-day moving average, it started a two-month rally. So, we're getting very, very close to the 50-day moving average. I do believe they probably defend the 50-day moving average first, because you can see it here, even going back into the early part of December, it tested the 50-day several times and it held in bounds. So, I do believe, a violent betting man, I do believe that 50-day will probably serve as an initial balance area. But boy, oh boy, if NVIDIA closes that 50-day moving average, that's going to be a very, very big problem. Look at Tesla as well, right? So, they had that Tesla delivery number over the weekend. Actually, it was Monday morning, excuse me, Tuesday morning. They came out with their deliveries despite the good deliveries. They kept on selling the stock off. And again, just like NVIDIA, we're very, very close to the 50-day moving average again. And just like NVIDIA, do they probably bounce Tesla the first time around off the 50? My guess is yes, right? My guess is yes, but again, any close below the 50-day moving average, you can see here. Look at the first time Tesla closed on October 18th. What happened below the 50-day, right? This thing went literally from 254 all the way down to 194 in a matter of two weeks. So, again, that 50-day moving average is just really, really important. Look at names, for example, like META, right? META had an inside day today. Actually, in a weird way, held up better than a lot of these beta names. But boy, oh boy, if it starts losing a yesterday's channel, this thing could start getting back to the 50-day moving average as well. So, there's a lot of technology names, very, very weak. It's giving us opportunities. Let me look at Amazon, right? Look at Amazon as well. Amazon held yesterday's low, but boy, oh boy, now it held back-to-back days in the same bottom channel. If Amazon confirms the last two days of price action in the bottom range, it has room to the 50-day moving average. So, I don't want to, you know, I don't want to put the cart in front of the horse that, hey, this is, you know, we saw this massive rally in 2023. Now, this year, the market's going to get this-it's not like that. We're taking day-to-day, but boy, oh boy, oh boy. The longer we continue to build below the 20-day moving average on the Qs, there is a high probability we do see the 390 area. The bulls really need to put, you know, put a stop to this bleeding, you know, where to take out the bandaid, take out, you know, take out the gauze to do something, a damn neo-spawn, right? As Chris Rock said, put some tussin' on it, right? Put some robot tussin' on it. So, the bulls got to do something, okay? If not, if they continue to start putting in lower highs and lower lows and build below the 20-day moving average, we do have a date with the 390 area. You know, going into tomorrow, I'm still watching the video below today's channel, Tesla blow today's channel as well. Meta, Amazon, pretty much all the beta names. I'm not really breaking any news here. I should basically trade the same 10 stocks, but the weakness continues and what the bulls don't want to see tomorrow, in my opinion. What the bulls do not want to see is a gap up tomorrow because, you know, when you have consecutive days of sell-offs, really, really aggressive sell-offs and you're taking out the previous day's lows, the last thing you want to do is gap up because more chances than not, you're going to get stuff to supply. And if they do get stuff to supply in any gap up, there's a higher probability that they test today's channels and have more selling across the board. What the bulls actually need is another gap down. I think a third gap down probably will have a better chance of reversal back to the upside than a gap up into tomorrow's session. But again, like everything else we see, you know, we have to be prepared for. You know, believe me, if I knew tomorrow's closing price, I wouldn't be, you know, having a conversation with you guys. So we are prepared for both sides of the market. I do continuously like a lot of these beta names for more selling. We'll see, you know, we'll see how that plays out. But other than that, there are some names that actually look good in a non-beta space. Look at a chart like METC. I don't know anything about it. You know, not really my cup of tea, but this is a beautiful, beautiful looking chart. You know, a nice looking chart here. And if the market holds up and starts taking out November highs, this thing could really go. A name like TECOM. Usually not a name that I would even look at, but they were coming in some pretty aggressive call buying today. This is a very, very junk looking trading stock, boy oh boy. But I tell you, the stock did not go down. And if it starts confirming November highs, maybe this thing wakes up as well. And other than that, you know, I am definitely, definitely watching continued weakness, especially if we get gap ups. I think this is a market, you know, before any type of panic comes in. And I think you already start seeing very, you know, inexperienced traders start talking about panic and we're going to market is going to crash. Guys, we're up 54%, 54% in a calendar year. NASDAQ is off, what, off 2.5%, 2.7% in the first two days of the year. Settle down. You know, when you, when you don't know what you're talking about, stop, you know, spreading nonsense through social media. That's when you start hearing all these myths and all this, you know, all this jargon come in. There's nothing, nothing actual to actually what's going on. The key tomorrow for the bulls get back above the 400 level and close there. And the key for the bears is to stay under the 20 day moving average. Start building below today's lows. And if the market really accelerates, we could see moves all the way back down to 390. The interesting part, what we did see today, some notable option activity. We did see, we did see some pretty aggressive 370 weekly puts coming on the video, 367.50s coming in the video as well. For Tesla, we saw a whole bunch of 235s and 230s. So the institutional money flow after a couple of days of kind of watching the price action, they are starting to put themselves in a situation to start making some bets in the first several days of the year. Tomorrow, it's Thursday, my regular night off. So fully guys who are trading, you can go one by day, you know, day by day, trade by trade. You don't need to figure everything out. You don't need to be the smartest person in the room. Just trade what you feel comfortable and trade what the market gives you and not what you want for a potential day. Guys, God bless. Help everybody. It was a great day. I'm going to cut this a little bit short. I'm going to take a bunch of boys to practice daddy daycare never ends. And with God's help, I will see you all in you guys tomorrow. Take care.