 Hello, traders at CMC Markets. Welcome to another update from me, Trevor Neal of RRG Research for Wednesday, the 14th of June on the day of the Fed rate announcement. We're going to have a look at major stock indices and how they're positioned in front of this long-awaited announcement. We're in a strong bull market here on the NASDAQ rampant bull market and it started right from the beginning of the year after this double triple bottom low and up with powered crash through the 13,600 resistance there, surging towards the 15,200 resistance here and the move itself is going parabolic. The MACD is strong, it dipped a bit but then it's come back up a bit. Again the RSI dipped a bit and has come back up again telling us the market is very strong. So let's just magnify this a little bit. The S&P has pushed ahead and as pre the data release is looking obviously very strong therefore expectations are I suppose that must be expectation for a pause which is built into the price. Now there's room for disappointment there in the rhetoric or maybe not a pause. We have got support at 14,686, if it pulls back if we break through 14,200 then we can drop quite hard and fast down to the significant next support at 13,600. If we continue to power ahead then the next resistance level for the NASDAQ is at 15,240. The S&P now also of course very bullish indeed long-term breaking through resistance levels 42,400 was a big number for it and struggled with it for a bit but then it burst through slice very fast and next resistance level which was the August 22 high at 4321 which is now support for the market. It is pushed ahead from there the next resistance which is only minor is at 4,500. Let's take a closer look at the chart. We can see that expectations are high for a good outcome in the Fed rate announcement. We gapped up and so there's plenty of room for disappointment. The gap is from 4,340 up to 4,348 so if we fill the gap then then we'll probably come down further. If we edge into the gap and then out of it again that's very bullish and then the high of 43,72 will probably be taken out and we will push in on up into this free area up here where it can surge with very little friction. If there is disappointment we're still in the strong ball market. I doubt it would destroy the ball market. We've got support that very important longer term support at 4,322. We've got support at 4,260. If that gave way we could slip back quite fast because we gapped up very swiftly from 4,225 level. There is good support if it fails the news disappoints but if it does then it comes back to these levels quite quickly and they're good levels and given the strength of the ball market it should resume but if it doesn't disappoint that will be unfettered bullishness will come into the market and there's a lot of room for it to go up without any resistance. Now this is a daily chart of the Dow Jones industrial average and you can see with this long-term picture here we've got this ascending triangle shape higher lows in place. This one has been lagging the Nasdaq which has been leading the S&P it's turned strong and now I think we're on the cusp of something big happening in the Dow Jones industrial average. So you can see here that this level here above 34,000 let's say 34,250 area has been rebuffed, rebuffed, rebuffed a number of times but every time it goes down it holds at a higher level the balls are getting putting in more pressure on the market and it's looking quite strong with the MACD positive here on the daily chart and the RSI making a new high. Let's home in a little bit on this area here but you can see the implication of a breakout here could be a retest of this high 35,500 and then the high at 37 up here this would release a lot of energy on the upside and ascending triangle classically you count from the low here 29,000 up to 34,000 here that would be a 5,000 so up to 37,000 38,000 but that's to the high or even slightly beyond that's the classic minimum price objective from an ascending triangle so this could be the break that gives a swing to new highs for this market. We've got that series of highs the line here should be fat you know it's difficult to know exactly where it is but we're definitely close to it we're coming up to with a lot of power here and so the triangle is the horizontal side of the triangle ascending triangle is under threat it's got power any sort of relief for today and even if we get the news that we were expecting I think there's a lot of energy on the upside here that could take us through that horizontal line if it does it will release a lot of energy in the market and I think this could be the beginning of a catch up by the Dow Jones Industrial Average not only on absolute term but on a relative term where it's been lagging so much behind the NASDAQ so the key level is around 34,300 around that level there because we've got those long-term highs there but we've got a lot of power you see the MACD here pushing forward gap is widening powerfully the RSI making a new high here just got a lot of momentum on the upside at this point if we get news which disappoints the market we've got it we have got a gap here the gap is from 34,100 to 34,062 small gap in there and filling that cap would infer a pullback to the next support level which is these two highs here 33,800 and the whole situation and the whole idea that this is the attempt of a breakout would be null and void if we break through 33,400 so we're approaching significant resistance point that can release a lot of energy on the upside and it could of course be yet another point on it and we just drift down and then we come inside the triangle that'd be very disappointing for the market so we're at a very important point with potentially explosive news this is going to decide whether we break out or whether we fail we'll probably know that by the end of tomorrow or what happened there but if we break out I think it's very exciting for this and as I said I'll just repeat that this market which has been lagging the Dow Jones industrial average could play a game of catch up and could offer the most potential as it swings around with the bullish NASDAQ but on a relative basis improves substantially now here is a daily chart of the and there's a different picture isn't it completely from what we had the we've been looking at with the NASDAQ and the S&P and the Dow bull markets but here not a bull market at all it's looking very weak series of lower highs in place and the drifting even currently and here you can see easily on the the ROG lines versus the S&P the relative weakness of this is a vulnerable market to weakening further so let's go closer look closer at it drifting pattern we see here we've got near-term support at 7,548 7,550 then below that if that gives way it's a drifting continues and that gives way then the next support crucial support is the 7,440 to avoid retesting these lows in here at 7,300 on the top side we've got resistance at 7,650 level then here from these lows in here and this the bottom of this consolidation range at 7,700 extending the consolidation range extending up to 7,792 we've got a neutral message from the MACD the RSI is at 50 in the middle of its 50 percent right in the middle of its zone and so it's showing neutral the MACD is neutral the RSI is neutral we're in a little bit of a consolidation range we've got a consolidation range above we've got the lower highs pattern it looks as though it's consolidating but the threat is really to the downside the support here really at 7,540 is relatively light and so the threat is really for a retest of this 7,446 it's a really different looking chart from those US indices it looks as though it's going to continue to underperform and best stabilize but the worst it may drift further I'll leave it there for today thank you very much for listening we'll see how events unfold after the Fed announcement so thank you very much for watching I'll be back to you soon the next updates will be from Julius on our weekly ROG updates and thank you from us both Julius de Campanara and myself directors of ROG research and may the trend be with you goodbye