 Welcome everyone to another International Relations capsule for the Shankar IAS Academy. Today our topic is the visit to India of Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia. In fact, we can start with a little breaking news because while we speak, the two leaders have just started meeting in the Hyderabad House. So we do not know what they are talking so that will have to be covered in the next episode. And we will today talk about the expectations of the visit. So far what has happened is the two plus two, that is the foreign ministers and defense ministers of the two countries have already met today. There's a new development. We have this with the United States, but with Russia we have started the two plus two dialogue for the first time. So that is significant. So today the two foreign ministers and the two defense ministers have met and this has strategic importance because foreign ministry and defense ministry coordinating our policy between India and Russia. And one news which has come out of this meeting is because we don't know the details is that we raised India, Indian defense minister raised the issue of Chinese actions in the dark and the fact that they are continue to occupy Indian territory across the line of control, line of actual control. So we don't know what the response was, but this news has come out of the two plus two meetings and also they have signed some agreements, defense cooperation agreements as we had expected. So that is the news at the moment. But let's go back to the history of this. This is part of the agreement reached between Russia and India to have annual summits. With very few countries, we have the luxury of having the heads of state meet every year regardless of what happens. And so this has continued and but unfortunately 2019 was the last time they met because 2020 because of the pandemic, there could not be a meeting. And therefore after a break in 2019 in 2020 and at the end of 2021, we are having this bilateral summit which is part of the annual exercise started when Mr. Putin was in India together with Atal Bihari watched by the Prime Minister at that time. So this is a tradition. And the difficulty till the last moment, we are not very sure that such a meeting will take place because there are several aspects to be taken into account. First and foremost, the pandemic itself. President Putin had not gone out of Moscow since the pandemic broke out except once to meet President Biden in Geneva because of the crisis arising in Ukraine and other problems between the two of them. So their first meeting took place. And that was the only occasion Mr. Putin went out of Moscow after the pandemic broke out. And this is the second one. So this is very significant that the second visit is taking, making out of the country. At a time, the pandemic is actually getting worse in Russia that he has chosen to come to India at this time. There are other problems like the difference opinion between us, India and Russia on the Chinese action. Of course, they are not signing with the Chinese, they are not signing with the Chinese or they are not defending the action. But overall, they take a rather neutral position. In fact, in the early stages, they gave the forum, they gave the venue for Indian and Chinese foreign ministers to meet in Moscow. Because they did not intervene, they did not mediate. But an occasion was created for the foreign ministers to meet. So in a sense, trying to help the resolution of the crisis. But after that, many months have passed. But the situation on the line of control, line of action control still remains uncertain and worrisome for India. And we are, of course, taking the view that things may take time to work out. And therefore, the consultations are continuing. But we cannot expect Moscow to support us or to say that what the Chinese have done is wrong. And therefore, there is a slight difference of opinion between us and Russia. That could have been one obstacle which would have prevented this meeting. The third one is Afghanistan. In Afghanistan, India and Russia, Soviet Union have cooperated during the long Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. India was supporting the Soviet Union. So the history of seeing Afghanistan with the same kind of eyes. We had the same position on Afghanistan at that time. But after the takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban, there is a slight difference between India and Russia. Russia should have supported India's position fully, given the background of the history of Afghanistan. But they have chosen to be on the side of China, which believes that the Taliban government should be legitimized. And they should be given support for them to run the country. And therefore, they have continued their embassy in Kabul. And the same position has been taken by Russia. But they're not taking an identical position like China. They are also their concerns about terrorism. And they know that a narco-terrorist state in Afghanistan will be harmful, not only for the region and India, but also for Russia itself. And that was the reason why Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 to stop such tendencies. But now they have taken a more moderate line with the Taliban, which is different from ours. But when we had the NSA meeting on Afghanistan in Delhi, unlike China, Russia participated in it. And they have kept a dialogue with India. And therefore, there could be, because both of us have common positions and concerns in Afghanistan, that could also be bridged the difference. But there is a difference. And that was another reason why this meeting may not have taken place. The other difference of opinion is on the question of QAAR and Indo-Pacific. In fact, the Russians do not like the word Indo-Pacific. They would rather keep to the old name that is Asia-Pacific, because they think that when you say India-Pacific, it has certain connotation. And they have openly voiced it. But in principle, Russia also agrees that it should be an open cease in the Indian Ocean. And there should be peace. And the concentration should not be on containing China. So China also has a legitimate role, Russia thinks. And so these are all the differences which persisted. And so there was some doubt as to whether such a dialogue will take place at this time. But I think the predict goes to India. India has been very deft in the last few months in meeting as many people as possible, whatever the situation, even with the Chinese Foreign Minister, we have had meetings. So we are not staying aloof from tackling the problems. And we go out of our way to speak to the Chinese even, to the Russians, to the Americans, and try to find a common ground among all of them. That is India's diplomacy now with our selective alignment policy and not not aligned. So we are trying to maintain a dialogue with everyone, with the US, with China, with Russia. And this should be seen as part of that. So that's why this has a very important significance because this meeting is taking place at a time when there are several differences of opinion, some wrinkles as it were in India-Russia relations. So the idea is to iron them out. And Russia itself also is in controversy regarding Ukraine. And the Ukrainian president has been saying that there would be a war tomorrow, the day after tomorrow or the first of January. So he has been saying that because about 92,000 Russian troops have been amassed on the Ukraine-Russia border. Because Russia's positioning is that this is our own territory, it's up to us to keep as many soldiers as possible in our territory. Therefore, Ukraine should not worry. But Ukraine is really worried. And the United States is also worried that it is possible that Russia might invade or according to president of Ukraine, stage some kind of a coup with the support of some Ukrainians. So there is tension there and therefore it must have been difficult for president Putin to leave Moscow at this particular time. As far as Ukraine is concerned, Russia has a red line. They will tolerate Ukraine as much as they can. But the moment Ukraine joins NATO, if that happens, they think that they will somehow prevent it. And that is the point where there could be a conflict. And so this accumulation of troops and all on the borders of Ukraine are meant to frighten Ukraine away from joining NATO. But reports are that Ukraine is pushing its membership of NATO and European Union and NATO and the United States are supportive of this move. So unless Ukraine restrains itself and not join NATO, there could be some problem on the border. So on Ladakh, on Afghanistan, on Indo-Pacific, and all these there are differences. And perhaps this would be an opportunity for the ministers to speak about it. And the intention is that there could be some kind of consensus on these issues. If not consensus, at least some proximity of views. And that is what prompted this meeting to take place. And of course, COVID itself remains a big issue with a new variant of concern. And everybody is concerned about the possibility of air travel etc. in the next few days. And that also was some kind of an impediment. But the real reason for this visit is bilateral relations. Because one of the most important things that is happening now is that the S-400 missiles are being delivered. While we speak and while Mr. Putin is in town, a major defence contract, because it's not unusual for India to have major defence contracts with Russia. And this is a $5 billion deal. And it is controversial because the United States is threatening to impose sanctions. We went about the purchase of this. And we probably haven't understood with the United States that they will not impose sanctions because they have no interest to weaken India's defences, particularly when they think of China. So the impression that one gets is that there may not be CATSAR sanctions which the US has been threatening. But so far the indication seems to be that they may not happen. And therefore the S-400 missile thing will go through. And that's a major accomplishment for Putin and a good sign for India's defence system. So that is one of the major items. And it is a kind of celebration of a S-400 missile. There is also another celebration today. That is the 6th of December as we talk. This is the day when India recognised Bangladesh as an independent country in 1971. And in that course, Soviet Union played a big role. And therefore it is appropriate for Russia and India to be together on this particular day when Bangladesh celebrates its anniversary. And therefore for bilateral relations, this is very important. And it seems, we don't know the details, it seems that an agreement has been reached for defence cooperation from a long-term perspective. And one of the activities suggested is that India will start manufacturing AK-203 assault rifles to be manufactured in India. Not only for use in India but also in Russia and also in other countries to which Russia supplies such armaments. So this would be a big contract. Apart from that, there would be possibility of more defence contracts which you'll come to know today or tomorrow. Then there is another big involvement that India and Russia have is the involvement of India in the development of what is called Russia's Far East. When our Prime Minister was in Vladivostok, China expressed an interest in diversifying the developing activity, development activities in the Far East. China is very active and they probably wanted to balance it with Indian influence and activities in the Far East. And India has even extended a credit line to Russia. One billion dollars credit line has been given to Russia for projects to be executed by Indian companies and Indian material. The usual thing about credit line is that once a credit line is given that money can be used only for project assistance from the country which gives the credit line. So we give the money with one hand and takes it by the other hand, that is how the credit lines work. And so there is activity there and it is necessary to stress the importance of it from the point of view of India and Russia. Then it is expected that there will be a set of a framework for military and technical cooperation for the future, maybe for the next 10 years. And this is in the face of proper problems on the China border and also America's own reservations about India getting too dependent on the Russian arms supplies. Of course, India used to import almost 70% of arms from Russia. Now it has been reduced to about 40% but still it is a major importer of arms from Russia and therefore this 10-year project or whatever cooperation program which will be signed or already signed perhaps will lead to a defense, trade, investment, energy and technology. All these aspects will be covered and the details will come out soon but we know that these things are likely to happen. Then the terrorism is another issue on which Russia and India have common perspectives because Russia is also threatened by terrorism and though they are supporting the Taliban, they also have concerns that the Taliban activities or their occupation that they are running the government in Afghanistan will not lead to, they are exporting terrorism to various countries, particularly where there are sensitivities on the Muslim population like Shingya in China where there is a concern and in Chechnya in Russia there is a concern about possibility of terrorism, particularly Islamic fundamentalist terrorism and that will of course also be covered and what we have been promised is that after the visit there will be I'm quoting the word sizable and formidable joint statement. So it's always a tradition for Indian and Russian leaders when they need to have a comprehensive joint statement covering all these areas of interest and that will probably be available tomorrow and it will deal with global issues, it will deal with the UN, it will deal with regional issues and certainly bilateral issues. So we can look forward to that but the general outline of what is going to happen is already clear even before the two leaders have finished their meeting, they're actually meeting at this time when we are talking. So we have to look forward to much tomorrow, we know the problems, we don't know the solutions but certainly the attempt is to maintain the good relations that India has had with Russia but recently because of various circumstances Ladakh, Afghanistan and generally Indo-US cooperation, Russian, Russia, Chinese cooperation all they have brought in some complications into Russia-India relations and those are the ones that we expect will be explored and perhaps sorted out and I see in India's own attitude a considerable amount of tolerance and patience in agriculture. Like for example, we would be normally very, very nervous when there is any occupational territory by another country which is something which we do not accept. We used to have what is called a zero tolerance because when this happens our all out effort will be to vacate that and that is what we have been trying. But though we have failed, we are not making that into a big issue, we are not boycotting China, we are still talking to them at every level including at the foreign minister's level and that is a new trend in India's foreign policy but maybe it will take time for this to be sorted out but we are not going to wage a war on account of that and that is something something new and also on the question of alignments, we are a non-aligned country that we have changed but we still remain strategically, we have maintained the policy of strategy independence and we have been saying that we must also be able to align ourselves with other countries, selective alignment. So this selective alignment seems to be spreading because we seem to be having alignments with various countries. The caucus has created problems for quad but we are still talking to the Americans, there may be other problems with the United States that criticizing democracy etc but we are still talking to them, we are strengthening our relationships with Russia the same thing and even with China once this is over we will probably have another strategic partnership. So what we are witnessing today is an effort by India to spread its cheer and friendship with many countries despite the differences we have and on the policy that the foreign minister or external affairs minister has ever emphasized that conflict should not, sorry, differences should not become conflicts and that is being repeated also by President Biden to the Chinese and that cooperation should continue. So there is a new spirit perhaps created by COVID but anyway the nations generally are in a mood to accept, to cooperate and strengthen relationships in spite of all these challenges. Ukraine could be a hotspot, Taiwan could be a hotspot, India Pacific could be a problematic situation so all the more necessary for all the big players to be talking to each other and we will know tomorrow as to what adjustments Russia is prepared to make in order to come halfway towards India's position and then we can see probably a change in Ladakh, Russia may not want to mediate but Russia may influence China to continue with the disengagement from the areas they have occupied and Afghanistan also there could be some understanding about supporting the government of Afghanistan with humanitarian assistance for which already there is considerable amount of money with the United Nations but who do you give it to is the issue. You give it to the terrorists who will use it for other purposes and that is the only concern otherwise a mass tragedy in Afghanistan can be avoided at the moment it is heading towards mass starvation and collapse of the government, collapse of the structure and it is in the interest of all of us including the UN to prevent that and therefore there could be an understanding at least on this aspect but not on recognition or on Indian embassy going back these things are too early and we are still waiting. So these are all the things that we expect from President Putin's visit and we can follow the developments today and tomorrow and perhaps next week we can make a clear assessment but my present understanding is that this will lead to relaxation of tensions generally and also these wrinkles which have appeared in India Russia relations will be ironed out and we'll once again be as friendly as we were with Russia. Of course Russia cannot expect India to support the modern train we cannot expect China to oppose China in Ladakh so these are all hard red lines but even within those lines diplomacy has a chance and that is what is happening in Delhi at this time. Thank you well Ukraine was already independent when it Soviet Union broke up Ukraine became independent country so there was no question but in 2014 Russia started believing because Ukraine wanted to see they can understand an independent Ukraine but they don't want Ukraine to be a part of European Union or NATO because it becomes a threat in the heart of Russia so their basic line is that Ukraine remain independent but must not become a part of the NATO pact and so that is why they have been putting pressure on them but in between Russia also took away Crimea which was given to Crimea by Soviet Union earlier Russia earlier and that has been taken away and that was and but that they tolerated it there was no the Ukrainians have not attempted to take it back and but they are still so the Russian fear is that if they still continue with NATO and European Union and get the support of the Americans etc that will be a direct threat to Russia and that is why they have advanced this group in case there is any any problem that any movement then they might ask and they have said it very clearly we joined NATO that is the end that is the end of our patience. Now AUKUS is a purely a military group as you know and we are not part of it and but the only thing is it came in the middle of the quad being formalized and formulated and therefore it created some confusion and also it created some confusion because the Americans and the British are giving nuclear technology to Australia Australia is an NPT country and under this context of the AUKUS they are giving it to Australia which was also concerned to us but then Australia is now a bulwark against China we are also happier with Australia because Australia was a great friend of China that has changed and therefore we have taken the AUKUS in our stride and we have not raised any questions about that but so but in a way it was good for us that because our quad is no more a military alliance as it was originally intended and it concentrates on other things well the hard security aspects will be looked after. I think I dealt with it already America has still not said that they will give a waiver to England from Katzow you all know about Katzow that's a new law of the US government which is supposed to impose sanctions on any country which has sizable military contact with an enemy country or shall we say a country which is not involved and that is a law and so if that law has not to be implemented then you need a waiver and one senator has already moved that members of the quad should be exempted from Katzow and members of the quad the only country which can be exempted is India because Australia and Japan are already alliances so there is no question of sanction so in the given the situation now the indications that we have are that there will be no sanctions on the American side. I don't think Russia will ask for our support on the grain issue that is not in our region and we are not involved and we will normally not speak about it and so our not talking about it is probably the support that we can give because that is a sensitive issue for the US also and therefore it's possible that we will not see anything about what's happening in the grain but we may probably privately request them not to make the situation any worse they will take care of it we will will not be involved but there is enough deterrent on the part of US is made it very clear and Biden has been in touch with both Putin and Zelensky the president of Ukraine and they want to avoid it at all costs and the only guarantee the Russians need is that Ukraine will not be accepted to NATO and that is only a condition and that may not be difficult to accomplish why go to NATO so much in a hurry. Thank you very much.