 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, Larry Pezzavento. Okay, looking good. Billy Ray, feeling good, Lewis. Welcome to the offices of Duke & Duke. We're back here in Philadelphia, 100 South Broad Street. We'll start the day like we usually do with the German Dax. You can see it's running in a different direction than we have here in the United States. Evidently, the fundamentals must be a little different. And the next one we're going to take a look at, of course, will be the FTSE. And then we'll get on to what we usually start the day with is something that might be interesting today. And that's what we're going to do. Where is the FTSE chart? There it is. Hold on. Same thing here in the FTSE. It's backed off a little bit too. So whether it means something or not, I get two emails a day. It seems like where's the top of the market, folks? I don't know and I don't care. I basically, you know, I try to look at the patterns and that's really what I'm trying to do. I'm going to post you what I think is very, very important because, you know, let's just get this up here to see it because we talked about this quite a bit and I want to be able to get it up here. I hope this is it. Please be it. This is it, yes. Here's yesterday, folks, boys and girls, very, very important here and I'll give you my two cents worth as we go through. This was the chart of Apple. We had a beautiful three drive to a top pattern over the past several days. It's a four hour chart. So this goes back over several weeks. We were sitting right at the 1.618 expansion there at 333 and I said to sell it at 332.90. And then yesterday when we were on, I said if it sees three, if it sees, if it sees 334, you're wrong. But let me just show you what happened after 334. You see this big move like this? Okay, let's move on and we'll just show you and then I'll tell you a little interesting story about Mark Douglas. Okay, here is now we're going to take a look at what happened after Apple broke that 1.618. Do you see how it moved down just a little bit, moved down to about 329 and you sell it at 332.70. The reason why I said if it gets above that, man, you're dealing with someone that's not playing with all the cards. I mean, this is one of the most powerful signals that you can get and that's that breaking above or below that 1.618 level on the upside and if it goes on the downside, you'll break it. I mean, it's just an incredible pattern now. Hold on, someone's calling in. Apple's at 348. Yeah, it's up a little bit. Where's it at now? Yeah, there it is, 348.20. Yeah, we're up here. And I'll show you Amazon in just a minute here. But the reason why I bring this up to you is when Mark Douglas was writing the book here, Trading in the Zone, one of the things that I would show him, I said, look, Mark, I said, look what happens here when it breaks above the 1.618 expansion. He says, why don't you use that as a buy signal? I said, I don't know. I don't like to chase markets like that. He said, but Larry, he said, look how powerful it is. You got the trend going up, but everything's going in your favor. Well, I went through this conversation yesterday morning with John Jameson. And John says, well, why don't you just buy, put a call butterfly on. And he said, it'll give you six or seven to one odds on this. And I said, I don't know what that means. And so he showed me how to, I still don't understand what he did. He sold something and bought some. He bought two and sold one. In other words, you got some money back for the one that you sold. When you sell an option, you get money back. And then when you buy it, you have to pay it off. But this thing took off like a rocket. I mean, it made, the risk of that trade he was doing was like $320. And it made like 1,500 at the end of the day. I mean, I was blown away. So I have to start looking at options. He showed me one that he's, that we were looking at yesterday. Also, that was really interesting. And that was in, where is it? Bear with me boys and girls. I hope I'll get it up here. I think it is. There it is. This is Amazon. Let's get it up here. We'll be able to see the same thing here. Notice you see the 1.618 up there. And the market went from 1.618 to drop from 25, 25. It dropped all the way down to 2375. And then about a Bing, about a boom. Look what happened yesterday when it cleared that 1.618 at 25, 25. The thing ran $100. Now this stock sells for $2,600. Let's say $2,500 yesterday. Okay, if you got $2,500, you do 100 shares. You're looking at a lot of money, boys and girls. So, it's a quarter of a million bucks. And so how do you trade that thing with a quarter of a million bucks? Well, John said, well, look, you do an option. So you went and looked at the option chain. And the same thing was true with Amazon as Apple. These were breaking out to the upside. But the trouble was the Amazon, by the time we had looked at the Amazon, the market had moved like $8 or $9. And $8 or $9 when you do an option is quite a bit. So the two things you got to remember, boys and girls, this is really important. It's not about how much money you make. It's about how much money you don't lose. And for heaven's sakes, when something goes, if you're following these markets and these patterns work a lot of the time, they don't work all the time. But when you go beyond 1.618, that is a flashing light. I mean, and then if you're really aggressive and you want to do that, then that's fine. Well, the story continues on after about, it must have been about a month. We were watching these just to see what happened. And there were like 10 in a row that worked on the 1.618. And we were looking at commodities, but the market had done those and they were making pretty good money. And so what did I do? I did the next three on 1.618 and all three of them, that was the reversal spot. In other words, it went a little above the 1.618 and immediately reversed. And that was it. I said, Mark, I said, I can't do it. I said, it just upsets the way I like to trade. He said, you're absolutely right. He said, you don't have to do those. People can do them. He said, but he said, you're just not one of those. You just do what you do. He said, you're fine. He said, you're going to be okay. And I said, yeah, I know I will be. But watch 1.618, folks. I mean, that thing is when it gets above that, boy, you know, it's really, really something that's main thing. By the way, we will have Stan Harley as our guest today. And tomorrow we will have a Bill Chapman of trend reaction. Friday, I don't think I'm going to be here. I have something that I, that I really wanted to do and I need a day off. So I am going to take Friday off. And that's what I'd like to do. Actually, well, we'll move on to the next one here. And we'll get this up and take a look at it. If you remember the last time Stan was on, he gave us this chart. I'm just going to see if he still thinks this is correct. This was the Dow Jones yearly. And you know, see that this was going back to the Revolutionary War. You can see all the big moves. You know, what's really interesting, folks, is you look at this. Look at the right side there where 1987 is. You don't even see the crash. I mean, that's how minor the crash was when you look at it long term. So who knows? You know, folks, people have asked, in fact, Tudor Jones was on this morning on Bloomberg for just a second. And well, he's on for about maybe a minute. And he was laughing. And he said, you know, I don't know where it's going. He said, you see crazy stuff happening. Look at Chesapeake Energy. You know, the thing was selling for almost nothing the other day. And it got up to $84. And it files bankruptcy. Are you kidding me? Boy, these things are going nuts out here. So just be careful. Anyway, the one that we want to watch today is the Amazon, because that, you know, we'll take a look at that because I have to wait the first hour of trading. If you're not currently using the Taz Profile Scanner when looking at setting up your trading opportunities, then your arsenal is short a mighty weapon. The Taz Profile Scanner is a standalone piece of software that instantly filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks, ETFs, commodity futures, and forex. 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Hear all of the TFNN shows, plus see all of the charts as they happen live and have access to archives of all of those charts. You can test drive the Tiger's Den absolutely free for 30 days and greatly enrich your knowledge of these markets and how to make your money work for you. Details on the Tiger's Den are on the front page of TFNN.com and have new pricing in six months and yearly options. Check out the new TFNN.com now and experience all the upgrades. TFNN.com, educating investors. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 Okay, we're back folks and I posted a chart of the NASDAQ because we're seeing that same pattern that we've seen in Amazon. Amazon's on the daily, this is an hourly chart on the NASDAQ and as you can see we're making a three drive to a top pattern and again that 1.618 number has popped up. That came in at about 1048 I believe yeah 10,048 gosh can I say but say that 10,048 that's twice what it was in 2000 when we had the big bubble where we dropped down to wow dropped 85% I don't know that could probably never happen well anyway that's what we're watching here so that's the number we're watching 1048 that looks like we backed off a little bit to 1032 so far again if you get above that 1048 now you know you've done something wrong and you certainly don't want to stand in front of that freight train because that's basically you know looking at Microsoft and well all the big ones that's for sure we'll have Stan Harley at the break here 877-927-6648 yes they're saying anything can happen and it usually does that's what you have to be afraid of it's very very interesting okay we've got Amazon at 2638 pre-market that's the number that we're looking at 2638 it's going to open now the key there is if you're going to take a shot at Amazon and I would only do it with an option strategy is to you know to see what's going to happen in the first half hour because if we're below 2838 it's 2638 that first half hour that tells you that the opening price could be kicking in and the opening price doesn't work all the time it works about 65% of the time what we're trying to do is put the odds in our favor so that's what I would be looking at is something like that now you know if this is this is not for the faint of heart folks if you're trading this and I don't I don't trade stocks but the patterns are the same it doesn't make any difference so we'll follow through with this tomorrow for sure because we won't be able to see well it'll open here but Stan will be our guest and we'll be asking him questions so it won't make too much difference let's move on to a couple things that have worked you know relatively well look look what's happened here in the dollar index is breaking down badly as most of you know and one of the things that we were watching as you see the 78% level in the Japanese yen right down there at 9100 now we're trading at 93 18 you know that's a you know now once it breaks above you know 94 50 you can look at something really crazy so this this yen dollar is is starting to move so you don't want to stand in front of it that's those are the ones that you like to get to that that actually you know can be in your favor and you don't have to risk very much so you know trying to short the NASDAQ here is no different than that the pattern is there you don't have to risk very much you see that folks even though it looks like it's way up there there's no need to be afraid of it if you've got a plan in place to say okay if it's right and sometimes you're going to catch one of these things and it's going to you know pay big bucks and that's you don't know which ones do and which ones don't that's that's the whole problem we wish we knew that but nobody else does either folks I have no idea how the stock market got to where it is right now I really don't I was very very shit 3400 we covered that at 2500 I didn't go long I I really wanted to but by golly I just couldn't pull the trigger I'm sorry that I didn't but you know that's either ifs ands or buts I tried a couple of shorts that worked really good and then turned around and didn't work very good so that's all I'm doing I'm waiting for that that final that final thrust this might be today I don't know I don't know if it's going to be today or not but you know you're right it's the fed juice it has to be that Shane has been screaming about that for months and he's been right you know so you can't you can't knock something that's a when he when it stops working will throw some vegetables at him but by golly he's stuck with it and you know what he said was just a couple days ago he's standing aside and open interest as we had a big increase in open interest in the S&P on on Monday but yesterday I have not even been able to check yet because frankly I was a little over tired yesterday and I overslept today believe me believe it or not folks I slept almost seven hours straight through I couldn't believe that I did it I was almost in a panic mode when I got up so anyway let's take a quick look here at the Treasury bonds because it has a very similar pattern that we have in the get this up here and take a look at it and we alerted you to this fact that we are hitting the 78% level there you also you see we were right at that 78% level within six pips and we've rallied up now this is a three-day rally and you'll notice folks we are sitting right at the magical level of 175 folks if these bonds cannot get above 175 today or tomorrow they're in big big trouble I didn't close sharply above it you know like 175-15 or something like that because 175 is going to be a really really interesting spot for the short bonds now there's a lot of still a lot of talk about negative interest rates and I think it's total baloney I don't believe we'll see negative interest rates here in our country it doesn't make any sense but if it does you know what are you going to do you can't do one thing or another let's take a quick look at what these markets are doing pre-market just to see what's going on here and what we've got here we've got the Nasdaq trading at 10,000 and 32 the S&P is at 30,209 it was not able to make new highs so we've had big divergence you know between the S&P and Dow Jones and the Nasdaq and Nasdaq has been the big daddy rabbit that's the one that runs it up so when that one turns a lot of times you know it'll pull the rest of it down so we'll have to wait and see and the Dow and the Dow could not get above their 61% retracements of the last range and the Nasdaq made a 1.618 expansion of that range so there is a divergence going on there that's the key to what we're watching the gold market I would like to if it gets down to 1766 excuse me 1660 I will have my bucket out there and buy a bucket worth of gold if it gets down to that level now we're trading it at 1731 and we should be topping here in gold in a little bit after the opening round 945 take a look at that because it's going to be an interesting spot to take a possible short sale the other one that looks interesting folks hold on one second is the natural gas let me get this natural gas contract I don't mean natural gas I mean copper hold on one second here this is one that Mr. Z pointed out to us here the other day when we were down here where the market was making the major lows I'll get this up here so we can take a look at it that was back there in March March Wow excuse me folks we've now completed the ABCD we're approaching the 78% level that's up about another 6 cents and around 271 in the copper we're having a really strong day today around 6 cents with the rest of the market because the world has finally figured out that there is nothing wrong in the world the coronavirus was what's a good thing it got rid of a bunch of old people especially in New York and whether it's going to spread the rest of the world I don't know but when you see the World Health Organization come out with statements that they're totally contradictory you have to wonder who's running the store in there because you know they're supposed to be the leader of this stuff and they're not leading very much at all so let's remind ourselves that even though we think we know something we might not we've got a break coming up here very shortly and we will have Stan Harley on who has some really good indications of what the market is doing he's been a market timer leader up there in the top 10 for year after year so we'll see what happens and that's what we'll do 877-927-6648 it's 24-7 and now is a great time to try out his daily trading service Fibonacci 24-7 Larry publishes videos and charts for subscribers throughout the week when warranted and every weekend he puts out a thorough report covering worldwide markets futures commodities and currencies with Fibonacci 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charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups overseas butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month we are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by thinkorswim for more information just click the thinkorswim banner on the front page of tfnn.com okay folks we're back and we have Stan Harley on the line of the Harley stock market letter Stan how are you doing my friend good morning Larry I'm doing just awesome good I was in a chart early this morning that you gave us the last time you were on that really long term chart of the Dow going back to the revolution all the way to where we are right now do you want to give us an update of what you're looking at my friend because frankly when that market went above $3,000 in the S&P I said oh my goodness I said I never thought I could do this but look what the NASDAQ can you believe the NASDAQ Stan is at $10,000 that's twice what it was in $2,000 and it broke 85% I mean that's amazing it is indeed go ahead my friend I saw that chart that you posted about 15 minutes ago from our last discussion yes I think that 2020 is going to mark yet another in the series of what I call bubble peaks and indeed I've looked at the data going back to the 1600s all the way back even to the Dutch Tule and I find if I plan a big stake in the ground in the year 1784 which was the birth of the USA when we concluded our war with Britain and we became a new country but if we look both left and right from that year 1784 and use the major Fibonacci numbers they line up with every single bubble market peak there has been the Dutch Tule at Mania was about 24 years prior to that date the South Sea bubble was 68 years which is 2 times 34 the 1835 high was 55 years from that date talking plus or minus there the 1929 peak was 145 i.e. 144 Fibonacci years from that date and the 2020 peak which is developing right now and it's not done but it will be the magic number in 1884 and when I plug all these and one should say well that is not exactly 234 it's not exactly 233 it's actually 236 yes but when one does a what's called a regression modeling plug in all the dates find the least squares best fit to the data that's the mathematical best fit it works out to be 233.000 which is what one would expect so we're there from a grand perspective now let's see if we can whittle that down a little bit more closely are you able to call up that 7 year cycle that I sent you about an hour and a half ago on your screen I will be can we do the monthly chart here on the S&P and then I'll pull the other one up and get it up here for us how's that okay that would be awesome okay and I'll get the other one go ahead Stan please the monthly chart that goes back about 40 some odd years and we'll see that on the screen here momentarily but what I found Larry is the dominant highs and lows in the stock market for the last 50 plus years have occurred at roughly 7 year intervals and sometimes we've had some 4 year cycle bottoms but those have been those are actually 0.618 to that 7 year series but as a general statement the highs and lows tend to come at 7 years or to be a little bit more precise when I plug in the monthly data it's actually 82.2 months and the last low in that series occurred in Feb of 2016 and if you add 7 years, 82 months to that date well you come to the end of 2022 beginning of 2023 and there you can see the chart on the screen the triangles at the bottom mark the regression series best fit to the data every 82 months plus or minus like clock work we tend to see significant lows and the next one is due as I said end of 2022 beginning of 2023 I think it actually comes in December of 2022 but before you get to bottom you got to make a high and that's for sure we're making something up here that's for sure okay well let's see if we can pinpoint the high let's go to the next chart that I sent you please the unemployment data okay let me get this up here we'll take a quick look at it and that's something that you and I have talked about in the past but I want to see if I can be a little bit more succinct with that unemployment for folks who may not be aware the Bureau of Labor Statistics the US government division has tracked unemployment in this country all the way back to 1948 and that data is available on the BLS website it's for free you can download it in the Excel format and tweak it and massage it that's what I have done and I have plotted the data here we go going back all the way to 1948 I invert the data so it looks more like a stock chart that is to say when unemployment is decreasing the dots are going up and when the data is increasing i.e. the economy is getting worse and going down and then I have labeled the highs and lows across the tops and bottoms across the bottom there is a very well defined cycle that averages about 129 months and the data and then across the top and this is what gets very interesting, Larry look at the dates across the top let's just look at the last two or three March of 2007 when did the stock market peak October of 2007 so what's that five months later seven months later April of 2000 when did the stock market peak well the New York deposit topped out in September of that year and so on so as a general rule unemployment reaches its best level for the then current cycle about five to seven months before the stock market tops out or put another way the stock market tops out about five to seven months after unemployment reaches its best level in the current cycle unemployment reaches its best level i.e. got its lowest got to the lowest point 3.5 in February of 2020 so if this pattern that I've identified continues that would suggest the stock market should top out about five to seven months later in February and you add five to seven months that suggests July to September 2020 before the next peak in this cycle and here it is June so we're getting close and I actually think it comes in about a month I think it comes in July we have a question for one of our listeners about this you know aberration that we had when this COVID virus hit you know the unemployment went down to about 15% or something like that you know is this when you look at data like this and I know you're really good at looking at data do you look at this as an aberration excuse me do you just wait to see if it's true no I do not no I don't think the COVID-19 thing had anything to do with this I'm not marginalizing the tragedy both in human terms as well as financial terms but no that just happened to be the news headline of the day the major cyclical high in the economy the news headline is different what it was going to be this time around gosh I had no idea it could have been the price of tea in China in this case it happened to be COVID-19 but one can see on the intermediate chart we tend to make highs and lows at every seven years every 82 months plus or minus and then the long-term chart going back to the 1600s also suggests a major pinnacle high in the 2020 time period so no I don't think the virus had anything to do with this it was going to happen regardless okay Stan we have to pay a few bills could you stay with us for another segment absolutely be my pleasure great we'll be right back folks stay at Harley the Harley stock market letter we'll be right back the gold market has taken off top side in a large way in 2020 if you want to take advantage of this sector now the gold report took profits in four of its equities in the gold portfolio in the first week of January for a combined profit of 99.2% with two positions left in the portfolio that have a profit of 67.5% as of January 7th the gold report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold which is the currency and bond markets news subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose every Monday morning I publish the gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the XAU, HUI GDX as well as more than 30 different mining equities to see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report sign up now by visiting tfnn.com don't miss out on the next great gold trade sign up today bill the S&P 500 continue to climb for bold trades on US large cap stocks in either direction trade SPXL or SPXS directions daily S&P 500 bull and bear leveraged ETFs direction leveraged ETFs an investor should carefully consider a funds investment 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markets and how to make your money work for you details on the Tigers Den on the front page of TFNN.com TFNN has launched our brand new website you can still visit us at the same TFNN.com URL but when you do you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation whether you're watching Tiger TV live in high definition or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions we even have new pricing in six months and yearly options check out the new TFNN.com now and experience all the upgrades TFNN.com educating investors we have a question for one of our listeners and that is they're impressed with all the data that you have and their question is have you ever seen anything like what's going on today that's their question I don't know if you can answer that or not but that's what they're saying well how do I answer that the technical patterns are very very similar the cyclical functions are very very similar the news headlines are always different but no I guess this is very this is both similar and different the best way to answer that topping functions though are often a little bit different but there's some similar areas here maybe I should go into that I track what I call the big five indices for me the big five are the Dow Jones industrials the Dow Jones transports the S&P 500 the NASDAQ composite and the New York composite and while bottoms tend to be spike events or price shocks one and done sometimes a retest topping evolutions tend to be protracted affairs that last for oh let's say five to seven months frequently the Dow transports are either the first or the last to top out among the big five in 2007 2008 time period they were the last to top out while the Dow and the S&P topped in October of 07 the transports topped out the following June in 08 but in the current environment the Dow transports topped out in September of 2018 I don't think they will go to a new high I think they are done the New York composite thus far has topped out in January I'm skeptical it will go to a new high but regardless I'm going to be watching those five components and as we get into the month of July I think you'll see fewer and fewer among those five components make new highs the NAS of course is already at new highs I suspect the S&P will go to an all-time high whether the Dow will or will not my guess is it probably will but my point is this we're going to see a thinning in the advance across several months and that's how tops are made until this thing finally runs out of juice and I think it happens next month that's what I'm watching very very very closely right now and then unfortunately I think we're going to go into a pretty significant decline and if that seven-year pattern continues true to form as it has in the past we should head down for about two and a half years wow that's going to be interesting well Stan we're going to have you on again well this here we are almost the first week of second week of June is almost done so right around the first of July we'll be having you back on if that's okay terrific I look forward to it thank you for being with us today buddy I really appreciate it stay safe up there are they opening Scottsdale and Phoenix now are you able to get out and move around it's a it's a process just like everybody just like everybody yeah it's the same way down here in Tucson I need a haircut badly well when you get to be buying Stan you don't have to worry about the hair so that's a good thing to look forward to in the future oh Stan what other question the bonds what's your what's your outlook on the bond market I heard you talking about bonds earlier I share your view I'm not optimistic for the intermediate term I think bonds are vulnerable to the downside okay that's great well that's the last question we have so well have a good weekend and we'll talk to you in early July how's that terrific I look forward to it Stan Harley folks in the Harley stock market letter let's take a quick look now I remember folks we were watching the the Amazon well let's get up here here's our price of the Nasdaq let's get up here take a look at it notice here that the when we were up there at that top at 1.5 we needed that to get to 1.618 let me double check to see if we got there give me one second and I will get this up here I believe we did hold on just a second and there it is hold on just a second here boys and girls we'll get this up here and print it out and see what's going on here I hope it works there we are the number was at 1 10,058 our high has been 10,066 so that's it write that number down folks if you get above 10,066 in the Nasdaq who knows said the blind man in the land of the blind the one eyed man is king so just remember above 1070 10,070 you do not want to be short this but right now it's trading 10,045 let's check to see how the old Amazon is doing we were watching that at 40 it's at 50 already since pop through there already folks let's get this up here so we can see it on the daily you'll be able to see it yes over right there too holy cow this is going to be interesting it's the first hour folks you got to watch that first hour this is the one that let me get this chart up here oh dear we got a little slight technical problem just a second and I will fix it I know what I'm trying to do is just to show you the importance of these breakouts because when they happen my goodness they just go absolutely nuts and we'll get this last one up here in fact it's already it looks like it's jumped I can't get the data to update so because I don't do stocks very much it's just that we see these we'll learn from it we're trading at 2653 that number we were looking we're 2653 we were looking at that 2638 or something like that so we're way above that but watch the first hour of trading down if we get back below that 26 38 level that's going to be a sign that yes that might be it and whatever that top is that'll be your distance that you don't have to risk in other words if it gets if you go down below 2638 you sell it and then you put your stop above whatever the high would be which is right now at 2653 or something like that and then so that's risking $17 on something it's selling for 2651 so that's that's a pretty easy one to pay attention to so keep that in mind as you look at some of these things as we go through here today but we'll learn a little bit tomorrow now you know this is a very interesting one here in this both of these we'll watch them and see how we learn probably just like we did from the Apple and maybe if you find something that you know trends really strongly and you want to buy it then watch that 1.618 because if you bust above it you don't want to stand in front of it and believe me that number at 10,066 in the Nasdaq is very very important remember that's the Microsoft and Apple is roughly not roughly it's exactly 22% of that whole index two stocks out of the hundred run the whole thing that's how important these stocks are because they're cap weighted and these stocks are very very expensive so that's why we're watching that the euros trading at 113 I believe we get about 114 you can see a bigger move down to the US dollar but right now it's broken down below all support in the US dollar we alerted you to that several you know weeks ago that could possibly happen and now it's happening so let's don't get too bad the Dow is acting badly the S&P is acting badly but the Nasdaq is going up and buying olive boys and girls you when you're trading the Nasdaq you're only trading you know basically handful stocks those are the big ones the ones that are run the economy runs our media system and everything else so you just don't want to stand in front of that puppy so keep in mind you got to do your work and you know decide how much you're going to risk on this stuff because that's what's going to determine whether you're successful or not not much how much money you make it's how much money you you don't lose and that's what you want to focus on we got back in the day I joined the hotel California in 2006 and like many of you was drawn in by as well as whatever you think about you bring about whatever you focus on growth you see I believe that everything in life happens for us not to us and Tom ignited the fire within me to want to learn how to master the markets so how did I go from knowing nothing about technical analysis to becoming the number one market timer for the S&P 500 in 2018 and the number two market timer in 2019 simply put I hired coaches with a proven track record which led me to a whole new set of tools that I created to interpret the message of buyers and sellers I would love the opportunity to teach you this award-winning set of tools and help you improve your market timing you can test drive my newsletter service mastering probabilities for the next 30 days with no risk to you plus you'll gain access to archive workshops that will take you step-by-step through my system 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more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com All right folks we're back and we're going to take a quick look at something that's very close to all of us and that is natural gas we've had that big sell off folks you can see we pull back right down to a 78% level like we did on the previous day very very harmonically I guess you would call it but if we took it one step farther and just did a little bit of cycle work you would be able to see that the cycles that we have there it's been in a beautiful 15 day cycle and that's where it's supposed to come in today we were down we hit the 78% level at 168 we've now jumped 10 handles we're up to 179 so that started to look pretty good whether it'll continue or not I don't know but if you happen to be in that one you know put your stop and break even so you don't have to risk very much that's the key to what we're looking at right now let's take a quick look before we get back here we've got the the NASDAQ is now backed off from that 1066 we're down to 1036 the S&P has dropped another 7 points to 3195 so there's a small chance that we might have a down day today and I repeat a small chance the crude oil continues to work lower we believe we've made a pretty good high in the crude oil up there at that $30 and change we're trading at $38.13 that was that big three drive to a top pattern and it looks like it's going to have some more to the downside as we look at this one other factor to keep in mind is the price of the treasury bonds folks if the treasury bonds do not get above $175.20 here the next day or so that is going to be extremely bearish now I don't know if the Fed has anything to do with it we're trading at $175.02 now and we're looking at $175.20 if we don't get above $175.20 and then we start now this is going to be an indication interest rates will be going higher and not lower but that's neither here nor there remember if you're trading these stock indices you've got to trade the NASDAQ like pork bellies it's very very wild and very very crazy trade something like the Dow Jones the S&P or the Russell they're much easier on your psychic and your state of mind live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may God bless