 Hello and welcome to Mapping Fort lines a show by news click where we look at some of the major geopolitical issues around the world Today we're going to be focusing on the Central Asian region where a lot of developments have been happening over the past few weeks There is of course the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan which you've been talking about which is led to hundreds of deaths a Long-standing conflict in fact and today there's been news that a missile attack on Azerbaijan's second largest city Nanja has killed nearly 13 people and this was after the ceasefire was declared Meanwhile distance some distance away in Kyrgyzstan There's been a major political change a long-term president has been forced to step down after protests and Sadr Japirov who's a considered a nationalist politician and who was serving a jail term on Kidnapping charges has been released after the protests and is now been appointed the president so a lot of changes happening, of course and a lot of Influence a lot of roles being played by regional big countries the region such as Russia Turkey Iran and of course there's a US and Israel countries like the US and Israel also Exciting influence so we have probably Pulkai said to talk about this for a bit So we've seen this region always being the site of a lot of say conflicts a lot of Machinations by powers even who are not part of the region such as the United States We're tossing in color revolutions for of course have for example happened in many of these places So how do you see the latest developments in this region and what did they play? I think it's very clear now that the United States has decided that it needs to enter the The Caucasus and also Central Asia Not with the view to really taking over some parts of it or trying to control the region or Getting people countries to become members of the NATO. I think that part of it is sort of Given up and I'll come to why this been given up for the time being but they also would like to keep the pot boiling and there is Of course Russia is one element in this targeting Russia in different ways But also China because Kyrgyzstan is right next to the Uighur Xinjiang province That as you know is the target for the United States has become something of a Global attack which has been unleashed Making that as a key issue and a part of it is told to deflect the rising Islamophobia in United States and Europe and deflecting attention on to saying, oh, you know China is Islamophobic we are okay. We are part of the force but look at what they're doing there So making the pick Giving a picture that they're doing much worse than we are doing so, you know, you guys don't have to worry about us so much Kind of thing. So I think what you see in this whether it's a Caucasus or you see Central Asian Republics that the US is trying to really fish in very troubled waters Not with the view to stabilize in the region or really building alliances which can last I think that view that they might have had one point they've given up at the moment They're looking for how to destabilize these areas and therefore keep Russia and China on the defensive Because these are unstable borders that are very close to their Countries and this also It gives them a handle against Turkey in Iran Turkey has having fallen out with NATO in the United States. It wants to play a lone hand So there is also that element So what you see at the moment is a really a destabilizing of the region and which we don't know which side What is going to happen? What are the alignments possible? But your four major players of the region, which is turkey You have Iran. You have china. You have russia and all four of them Can be destabilized one way or the other by playing on the regional passions in the region Because there are a large number of turkish Nationality meaning their language speakers in this region and the lot of the central Asian Republics we can go over their names including kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan speak the turkish language And therefore turkey believes that it has an affinity towards them. Azerbaijan is shia So Iran has some affinity over that. It's possible. They could feel a certain linkage with Azerbaijan So you have all kinds of cross currents that that are there kyrgyzstan also speaks a turkish language So you have that kind of influence turkey might try and serve using their linguistic Affinity all of this means that the u.s policy is no longer To try and expand its influence as much as to disrupt others What I would call is a policy of chaos that if we can't have it Nobody else should it seems to be the policy they're playing and that would explain why they're quite okay with the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh with norbania and Azerbaijan as well as what the destabilizing Efforts which were there in kyrgyzstan, which didn't want Sardar Zaporov to come into power in fact wanted more instability over there It's quite unhappy that sardar zaporov seems to have taken over and seems to have a certain amount of legitimacy at the moment So I think all of this is something that we need to look upon as a u.s policy of Destabilizing regions rather than expanding its influence. And I think that's the key now to understand What's happening in these regions pravir in this context the developments around in kyrgyzstan are quite significant because We've seen of course a lot of key players here the current president The former president who just resigned of course is a key player, but there's also sardar zaporov who has become Who has been nominated by parliament to be the new president? And there's also a former leader al masbeq atambayas who's really considered one of the key Major players in the politics of the country itself. And of course like you said, it's close to china And it's also a traditional ally of russia. So, uh, how do you see the developments that are happening around there? Well, Bhadrakumar has written a detailed piece that he thinks that this was really an attempted color revolution in which the united states Played a key role, but or at least supported sections which were trying to take power over there It seems to be that that ploy has not worked and you have sardar zaporov sees power And he was essentially freed by the Demonstrators who then put pressure on the president to resign and hand over power To zaporov. So given all of this Why would be the question to ask is why is the united states Interested in kyrgyzstan after it's a small place. It doesn't really have a major role to play It's not rich in Minerals unlike for instance azar bhajan, which has a lot of oil and gas well So what is the reason for this? It's also as I said not very big And the argument is well, it is turkic speaking. It is people who are Could be close to the Uyghurs And who are also turkic turkic speaking So it could be a base by which you could actually destabilize a part of china So I think it's strategic importance to the united states was more Is potential being used as a stalking horse in Xinjiang and that was the reason that there is a Sense of disappointment that the cards did not fall in a way that would have helped this effort But sadid yaparov has taken over and it Doesn't appear that he has those kind of intentions to ally with the united states if you look at the geopolitical situation There is no particular reason why any of these small republics Would align with the united states because on one side they have china There is of course in this particular case that we have about five or six turkic language speaking countries but none of them really have any Connection to united states or its allies to any land boundary on one side you have china Other side of iran you have other side you have russia So in in that sense none of these countries then can provide a direct lifeline if they get into trouble So only thing that the united states can provide is air lifting air support and so on So it doesn't look like in a geostrategic sense any of these countries would really readily fall into the hands of the united states unless they decide that we are so much indebted to the u.s As a as a political power that we are willing to sacrifice our country to further strategic interests of the u.s And I think that's an unlikely occurrence. Let's not forget Pakistan is also a close ally of china at the moment Afghanistan is something that the united states is Going away from So there is really no base that the u.s. Has today to intervene in in this particular region And therefore as I said it again comes back. They don't really care What they want is to destabilize the region and keep russia and china occupied and maybe also iran Which also about the region so they have no stake in stability of the world at the moment I think this is only an example of that and probably one of the key aspects of course is that we have also like I mentioned earlier seen a history of color revolutions in certain other parts of the region of course not necessarily In center in the part around kyrgyzstan, but for instance in ukraine definitely even for that matter They have been similar instance in georgia armenia itself. So could you also take us through the kind of Regional dimensions that are there in this part of the world and the kind of various complications that they bring You know Three regions are crucial here when you talk about ukraine and so on you're really talking about the Baltic That as the That region is what is being put into play At the moment what we are looking at particularly with these two countries. Azerbaijan armenia and kyrgyzstan You're looking at Caucasus and you are looking at Central Asia as the play as the as the Playground so to say of these of the united states and it's What its intent could be so I'll leave the Baltics out for the timing because we have talked about it earlier quite a bit what we would What we should see is that If we look at turkey and if we look at russia, then you will see that it of course about black sea That's the place where both of them have naval power And if you take georgia's attempt to really try and take back abkhazia and south of satia abkhazia has of course a sea Is it about again the black sea? So there is a geo strategic issue Which the united states was trying to use georgia for Having failed that having seen that it was not possible And georgia could not enter the nato because there is a clause in nato Which says if we're having territorial disputes and an armed Secession of some kind Then you cannot be a member of the nato and that was because nato doesn't want to be get Doesn't want to get dragged into what it considers a civil war situation And that means neither georgia nor ukraine at the moment Can actually enter the nato and even if us wants them to join I think other powers really don't want that to happen because they believe that they could be involved in a situation of war So I think Baltics has in that sense reached a quasi stability After the belarus what happened and you know those kind of attempts which were tried over there I think that is sort of now Settling down to a situation of a again a status quo in which us has not been able to Do what you just talked about a color revolution But it doesn't mean its interests have receded over there. I think that will still continue But I think the right now the focus has shifted to armenia azar vejan And that basically thinking if russia turkey in iran can be engaged over there That that will keep the pot boiling and all three of them that cannot come together very easily But it does seem that russia has played a relatively neutral role. It I think allowed the War to play out for a little bit Till both sides realized they're not going to make much head away And after that they I think russia has been trying to sort of put them make them sit at the table And bang a few heads and get some status quo anti back over there Both turkey though, there was a lot of talk about turkey support and so on Turkey's support has been there, but it's more seems to be more you know Moral support than a physical one though. There have been claims that turkish air force was used I don't think that much of it should be really considered serious and neither iran Has been drawn into the battle Right russia's ability to actually make them sit and come to an understanding And some kind of a ceasefire even if it is not holding fully I don't think it's going to get back into war Because both sides seems to have realized that this is the war that neither side will win For armenian azerbaijan the real issue is that it's not only nagar nakaravak armenia sitting on tentry Which it also accepts that that was not an armenian The people of armenian identity so to say were not the people in those parts of azerbaijan Really took over and therefore that that part of it that they should also keep which is what they're planning now Is in fact something azerbaijan is not willing to accept azerbaijan has a lot of oil as you know And at one point the u.s. Was trying to cultivate azerbaijan Using georgia there was all there is a pipeline which runs up to sehan in turkey Which therefore comes not to the black sea but the other side So you get it really on the indian ocean persian gulf side So there was this attempt to really provide turkey with an Outlet and this is the outlet for baku azerbaijan And this would in that sense be a competition to russia Now with what is happening the fact that turkey is no longer the ally All these plans have really gone up into thin air and therefore you now see azerbaijan armenia it's become a really local conflict and us israel has attempts to you know attempted to play some mischievous role over there right armenia is not pro russia in that particular way Other ways that has been close to nato And the argument was that turkey would really control azerbaijan. That's not happening In this at least in the very safe, you know at least in terms of Keeping azerbaijan bringing it to nato that is not happening But turkey itself has got out of nato virtually so given all of this It's difficult to see how this forces will play Except to come to some understanding and probably sit down and negotiate at least those enclaves which armenia has taken over Which are not armenian majority Which they have really driven out the azerbaijani ethnic population from there Whether that can be negotiated into a settlement by which nagorno karabak gets integrated in armenia And in view of that those portions of territory is given back if that doesn't happen It will still going to continue to be a festering sore in the relationship of the two countries But i don't think it's going to be now spinning into a war Which will see other global players come right right absolute Thank you so much for your for talking to us. That's all we have time for today. 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