 tomorrow, you know, this 303 level on the cues is everything, right? It's absolutely everything. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys, good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader.com Nightly Update Show. Hope everybody is doing well. Again, if you watched last night's video, very, very frustrating day. Yesterday was kind of D-Day at the 50-day moving average on the QQQs, right? We were going back and forth, forth and back, reclaiming the 50, losing the 50, reclaiming it, losing the 50. And ultimately, what it did was kind of create a battleground into today's session. And I tell you one thing, and this is kind of what we always talk about, every single day is completely different, right? What happened yesterday has nothing to do with what's about to happen today, or what potentially could happen tomorrow. And you have to really treat every single day as its own merit, and that's very, very important. So yesterday, the Bulls did a great job. They defended the 50-day moving average 47 times. I guess if we were going on the 48th time, it would have worked, right? But 47 times, they got rejected, and then they got reclaimed, and only to give us more data. That was kind of the silver lining going into today's session, because at least we knew that 303 was going to be a big level here. And we talked about this in last night's video. And today, the market gapped up, and I've always maintained, again, if this is the first time you're watching this video, I've always maintained after yesterday's pretty good, aggressive sell-off. Any time there's a sell-off the day before, and the market gaps up the next day, there's a high probability it's going to get rejected and supply and turn over and start going red. It happens more often than not. And that was kind of our game plan today when we saw the NASDAQ gap up, the Dow gap up, and we were sitting there and we go, you know, anybody, and I say this all the time in the webinar, I go, anybody who's going to buy this gap up is on stronger pills than I'm prescribed, because it just doesn't make any sense. And slowly but surely, we started to go red, right? We started to go red, and we knew that 303 was going to be a major level. And just like yesterday, it tested the bottom of the range, tested once, tested twice. And unlike yesterday, it tested it within basically five times within three, four hours. Today, it tested twice within four, five minutes, and just like that. The sea was parted, right? Moses was there, the sea was parted, and then everything started getting very, very aggressive to the downside, right? And this time around, and again, credit to our buddy, Matt Whitaker, he's like he said the last night, like I mentioned, he said in the last night's video, well, maybe it's different this time, because the S&P wasn't participating in the sell-off below the 50-day moving average. Well, I'll tell you, it was a little bit different, right? Not only that the cues break the 50-day moving average, the S&P 500 broke the 50-day moving average, and provided some really aggressive moves. Well, again, we'll get to the individual pivots in a second. But more important is what happens here. If you guys watched yesterday's video, I started kind of talking about how investors, right, should really start taking some precautions. If we start closing and building, more important building below the 50-day moving average, you have to learn from history. If you guys remember, again, even going back to the break right over here, like literally the break over here, not even further back, once we broke below the 50-day moving average, it wasn't like that's it. The market's going lower. The market's going to go straight line to zero, even if the NASDAQ 100 pretty much give you a little bit better picture, right? Once we got below the 50-day moving average, again, it wasn't one of those situations that that's it. We're going straight down from here. But the key level was and the key most important point was the longer we built below the 50-day moving average. And in this case, it was one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight days, right? It was two full weeks of building, right? And you can see how tight this channel was. And it wasn't a bull case. It wasn't like, oh, the sellers are tired. Sellers were resting and building below the 50-day moving average. And finally, once they confirmed, started pretty much an aggressive four or five-month cycle. So now that we are below the 50-day moving average, the question is, well, again, how long are we going to build below the 50-day? The bull's job right now is to get back above the 50-day. They need to close at least 304, 304, 303, 304 on the NASDAQ 100 to get their footing. And the bear's job for the next two, three days, whatever the case is long, they have to continue building below the 50-day moving average. And the one thing we do know, and this is kind of like a cheat sheet, right? Nothing ever good happens below the 50-day moving average for the bulls. And that's a very, very important thing. Because again, if you go to reference points below the 50-day moving average, you could clearly, clearly see, right? So here's the 50-day. Here's the first time we cleared the 50-day moving average way back on January the 4th, started a pretty disgusting, really, really, look at me. This is a pretty disgusting move, right? Then we reclaimed the 50-day moving average. That was this last move, second to last move into supply. Then right over here, we lost the 50-day moving average, started another pretty big aggressive, you pretty much get the point. The 50-day is everything. Over 50 is bullish, under 50 is bearish. So this was the last move right here, the last up move that we had that we enjoyed for a month. And now we are right over here. This is present day, the first close, not only on the NASDAQ 100, but the SPY. And that's a very, very big deal because not only does that kind of put a spotlight on technology, it puts a spotlight on everything. And if you look at the Russell, which I haven't even really paid attention to, it's still not underneath the 50-day moving average just yet, but just like the SPYs, maybe give it some time. So here's the most important facts coming into tomorrow's session, right? Look, is it possible we get a snapback dead cat rally day? Of course, why not? I mean, we've had a pretty big decline in the queues just in the last few days. The queues have gone from 321 all the way to 298 in three sessions. So it wouldn't shock me tomorrow if we had a dead cat bounce. So if we keep on getting rejected into that dead cat bounce off that 303, 304 level and continue to roll over and start going sideways, putting a nice comfortable level underneath the 50-day, you know it's kind of a matter of time of what's going to happen next. So the bulls, yeah, they have to kind of reclaim as fast as possible in the next day or two, or we're going to have some pretty, you know, pretty aggressive conversations in the future. But for today, the bears did their job. They closed below the 303, 304 level first close underneath the 50-day moving average since all the way back to January, February, April, January, February, April, March. March the 11th, right? March the 11th was the last time we closed below. Look at the series of events that happened after and here's the first time we're closing now again. So I think the hardest day possible will be for tomorrow and this is where, you know, this is where we have to be a little bit more patient. If we do get a follow-through back to the downside again, always possible, considering we're already below the 50 the first time, if we do get a move below the 50-day moving average then below today's channels, everything's fine, right? Everything's fine. We're just going to be waiting for more stocks to confirm back below the 50-day moving average. And you can tell there's a lot of charts that look like in the next couple of days that look exactly like the indexes. Here's when right on the 50-day AIG, right? Look at AIG right on the 50-day and there's a lot of charts. There's really a lot of charts here but the most important part is what happens if we don't break down tomorrow, right? If we start to rally tomorrow and we have an inside day, right? Which basically means didn't take out the highs here, didn't take out the lows here, the hardest part, right? The hardest day will always be trend, right? Trend reversal, the next day, which basically means in layman's terms kind of a dead cat balance. And if we get a dead cat balance, those are going to be the hardest days to trade because you already know the overall bias has changed, the sentiment has changed, and now we're just trading in an inside channel. And again, we all know dead cat balance could be 50 cents, it could be $3, it could be $1. We don't know. That's the hardest part about a dead cat balance. So if you are a patient trader and I consider myself a pretty patient trader, you always want to kind of concentrate on the big picture, right? Always look at the big picture and see where we are in the spectrum of things, where we just came from, and where's the next potential measure potential if we start losing today's channel at some time in the future. Maybe it's tomorrow, maybe it's a day after that, but at least you have to be wary. And the longer we stay below the 50-day moving average, guys, remember, just look at the charts, right? Just literally look at the charts going into March. The higher probability we will continue the trend and eventually the rug will be pulled. So let's talk about today. Ridiculously aggressive day. Completely not like yesterday. The bulls, like we talked about, gave it up in the difference between a 1% decline, which is actually not a big deal on all forms of the indexes. Today's decline had technical damage and that what is important. So let's talk about the pivots. Ironically, the one that looked like a really slam dunk today, and this is officially, I think, this is officially when I'm completely removing Zoom from any forms of watchlist. Zoom went below its earnings low as the market was imploding, as everything else was imploding that we had. And this thing just wouldn't break down. So here's your last hurrah with Zoom. I think I took like a $0.64, $0.65 loss on it. I'm okay. God bless. Be out. Peace. Never to be here from again. Matter of fact, let's delete it as we could do it together. Boom. Delete, right? I'm obviously joking. Everything else absolutely imploded. So this could get a middle finger. Nobody cares about this anymore. Shop, $0.3175. It builds below, can flush. And again, we have a nice little rally back towards the end of the day. But again, the point is we closed below the 50-day. $0.3175 meets the build, went down to like $0.30 and changed. That wasn't the bigger one. Not even close. NVIDIA got absolutely destroyed. And more important about how NVIDIA got destroyed. We saw end of the week, right? We saw end of the week, 152.50 puts, 150 puts. We saw 145 puts going in for next week, 157.65 if it builds below, can flush. Here was NVIDIA, went all the way down to 52 from this 57 and a half area, excuse me, went down to 51.80s. If this thing confirms in the next couple of days, I think this thing sees 48. Really big move there. AMD, again, we spoke about this last night, slammed, 88.25, 88 if it builds below, can flush right below the 50-day moving average. As the queues went, so did AMD. Here's your 88.88 and a quarter went all the way down to 85. If it starts getting below this 85, look at which room you have, assuming the market continues its move in the next few days. Microchip, this one I didn't trade. It was a little too thin for me. 64.50 if it builds below, can flush. Not a bad move. Not a bad move at all, but here's a 64.50, went down, about a buck and changed, nothing crazy. But then here's what the Batemut names started getting hit. Meta, 159 if it builds below, can flush. Really, really strong move on Meta. This was with everything was getting pulled, so it lost to 59, got down to like 55 and changed. It's coming up on a very, very big macro level soon. If this channel loses in the next couple of days or whatever the case may be, this is going to be a really, really aggressive move down, but nice move today on Meta. BBY for all you guys who scalp did, God bless. I think went up like 20, 30 cents before the stock completely crushed, getting crushed. Tesla just absolutely manhandled again. They started coming in, very, very aggressive bets coming in guys. Here's the pivot. 280 held back to back days. That's the line in the sand. It took out 280, went down to like 272 and change. They were coming. I mean, some weird bets, man. They were coming for the 270 weeklies. We saw bets coming in for next week's 250. So again, people are kind of planning ahead. Again, anticipating, but they're planning ahead. But this was the pivot on Tesla just got just smashed, right? So here's the 80, right? Here's the whole 280, 280 went all the way down to 272.65. Again, people are complaining that Tesla is trading bad. Okay. Right? Okay. So Tesla got hit. Here comes Tesla. Yada, yada, yada. So look, most important part, the biggest takeaway from today's day. We had a close both on the Qs and the SPYs, both under the 50 day moving average. Again, it doesn't mean that tomorrow the market's going to implode for 500 points. Again, all you need to do is reference here going back to 411 that it actually took almost two weeks for this thing to build, but it continued to build underneath the 50 day moving average. But ultimately, the bulls just gave up and let off about another three, four months worth of selling. So we'll see. Again, bulls, if you want to get back in the game, you got to reclaim the 50 day moving average. The bears start building below and the higher probability the next move will be in their favor. Guys, God bless. Have a great night. Have a wonderful trading day tomorrow. And with God's help, I'll see you all there.