 For the market to start expanding, right? The one word I hate, okay? Any trader that trades mega cap technology will tell you. The worst word in our vocabulary is construction, right? Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. Opening night tonight in the NBA, I know it was last night, but it is for me tonight with the Knicks and the Nets. Very excited about that. Got my Yankees, and oh by the way, my daughter has to move basketball games today. So I'm very, very busy, but I'm here to kind of share my thoughts of what is happening and what I believe is going to happen. So let's talk about the tape, right? So last night, Netflix came out with earnings, really looks like really, really good numbers. I really didn't dive into them. Price action for me is the most important thing. Doesn't make a difference. The only thing I got out of it that they won't be guiding subscription numbers going forward, blah, blah, blah. Listen, reality what it is, big move today, big move in Netflix of 31 points on the day, and you'd figure based on after hours that we talked about last night's video, everything would be flying sky high, right? That wasn't the case. That really was not the case. And not only did things not fly, we kind of ran into our worst nightmare, okay? Which kind of we talked about last night in the video, when I talked about, hey, we're probably going to start our day at 10 o'clock today just because everything's in the middle of the ranges. Well, guess what? The whole day everything stayed in the middle of the ranges. And if you look at any stock, right? On the 60 minute view, and it gives you a pretty big barometer, right? Look at the cues, right? And not at the top of the range, a little bit close to the bottom of the range, but still stuck in the middle of the range. Amazon, right? Same thing, look at Amazon. Here's the top of the range. Here's the bottom of the range. Stayed above that, right? You look at every stock. You got Microsoft, pretty much the same thing. Over and over and over again. NVIDIA, one by one by one. They're all stuck in the middle of the range. So we basically sat there for the exception of, you know, nice little scalp bounce on Netflix this morning. It was just dead. It was just absolutely dead. The market went sideways. The market went down a little bit. And they tried to rally the market. The market really went down a little bit. We basically saw a day that's very, very rare that even the most highest of volatile names, the stocks with the biggest average range, they didn't do anything, okay? They absolutely didn't do anything. They all sat literally within a dollar, you know, a dollar and a half range. Again, if you look at Netflix, excuse me, if you look at Tesla today throughout the day and we'll get to the earnings in a second, you'll see the stock sat basically within a dollar and a half for the last three, four hours of the day. They're absolutely nothing. So my mom always used to say, and she still does, no news is good news, right? And that's exactly what it was today. No news was good news. And now we are having a scenario of like what happens next, right? And there's two theories. There's two theories involved that everything will trade today and going the next day. From the bull thesis as well, the market didn't sell off today. It held above the range. You can see here it's sitting above the range here on the five and 10 day moving average. And they're getting the bears comfortable for the next rally up, right? That's the bull case. The bear case is, well, wait a minute, I don't understand. Netflix blew out numbers yesterday. Shouldn't you guys be rallying? And oh, by the way, we're still in a bear market. So that's the case, right? And the good thing is we don't need to guess what's next. And that's the most important part is we just need to get out of this little range. And this little range is not a long distribution. This little range is yesterday, today, and tomorrow will be day three, but at least we have definitive numbers. And that's the most important part. When you're trading, you can't trade on feel. You can't trade on guesswork. You can't trade on your intuition or your crystal ball or anything in between. Some phenomenal, really smart 19-year-old on Twitter. You gotta trade with that, right? And that's the most important part. And if you look at the cues, okay, you'll see a very, very tight channel. Top of the channel is right over here. The bottom of the channel is right here. And when you look at your research going into tomorrow, based on where the cues close today, and the cues are pretty much flat after the close, IBM reported, Tesla reported, we'll get to that in a second. But the point is most of the names are closer to the bottom of the range as you would expect in a bear cycle than you are to the top of the range. If we close somewhere around here, then yeah, we would be looking at the top of the range here for a big, big move. But I don't wanna guess, right? I understand we're closer to the bottom of the range and that's all good and all, but you can make a case that the bulls did have a pretty good showing the last couple of days. This is a pretty good representation of strength and weakness. But again, data points, lines in the sand and tops and bottoms of channels is what we worry about. And here's kind of where we are, okay? For the market to move, forget about open and trade. Remember, every stock is gonna move, right? Every stock is open for business from 9.30, from 4 a.m., right, on the ECNs. And they close at 8 o'clock in the ECNs as well, right? Every stock is gonna move. Every stock is going to put in highs for the day, lows for the day, but if everything is stuck in the middle of a macro range, two-day cycle going on three days tomorrow, you're not gonna get anywhere. It's like a ping-pong match, right? Up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down. It feels like it's moving. It feels like it's going higher. It feels like it's going lower. And you could go up, you could leave your house, come back, get a bite to eat, you'll come back. The stock that you're looking at would be literally within 30, 40 cents of where it is. Now it's kind of the whole day. For the market to start expanding, right? The one word I hate, okay? Any trader that trades mega-cap technology will tell you. The worst word in our vocabulary is contraction, right? It's like my mother-in-law, right? It's contraction. It's where your average true range starts to shrink, shrink, shrink, shrink, shrink as every single day, it moves on, right? Every single day goes lower. It starts to shrink, shrink, shrink. The good news is when channels start to shrink and they start putting in a base, eventually, right? Whether it's tomorrow, whether it's the next day or the next lifetime, eventually we need to either get below 268 to the downside, right? You could see 270 is a little closer to the 268 or reclaim 277 to the upside. Which again, you can see 270 close is $7 away from the upper channel and it's $2 away from the lower channel. But they have to confirm. And that's the bottom line. When people talk about patience, that's what you're a patient for. That's what you're looking for for the market to give you that really green light to the upside or really red light to the downside to show you where the next move is gonna happen. So instead of contraction cycle, which is the ugliest word in my vocabulary, right? You want expansion, right? That's sexy. That's hot, but nasty sex when you're dating. Contraction is two 80-year-olds that are married to four years in the missionary position for 35 seconds. That's what it is. That's what we have. So for us to go back to the hot, nasty, right? We need to get above either the 277 level on the Qs or get below the 268 level on the Qs. And if we could get above the 277, we go to 85. If we get below 68, well, we go back to the low of the CPI. And that's kind of where we are going into tomorrow. So as you can imagine, majority of, I would say pretty much all, at least for my research going into tomorrow is going to be the sell side. Because again, like we just said, we're closer to the bottom than we are to the top. We were closer to the top. We'd probably have more long setups. But we'll see, right? We'll see. Again, I don't know. I'm an idiot. I'm not here to guess. I'm not here to forecast. I'm here to take me, right? Where the market's going to give me that clear path of the goal line. So that is our biggest problem. After the close, maybe you can make a little determination of how the market is going to move. You had IBM, which over the last five years, it's been very, very rare that IBM has beaten a number. Well, this time it's beaten this number, right? Again, Jets are four and two. Giants are five and one. IBM beat their number. Hell must be freezing over. And then you got to the flip side. All week, all for the last couple of weeks, we've been talking about Tesla, right? We've been talking about how there's been a reload seller in the crowd for weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks. Every single time the market tried to rally, it couldn't rally. We saw a big buyer came in. I think we talked about in last night's video. If we didn't, I apologize. A buyer came in for 3,000 of the weekly 215 puts, $1.7 million of premium. And like I've been saying, gun to my head, gun to my head. I think there'll probably be a negative reaction, but we don't know, right? We don't know. I didn't know that going into it. If I knew that, go into it. Hell, I'd be shoring this damn thing into earnings, but we don't know that. It's a pure guess. So Tesla came out with earnings. They were light, a little bit light, right? A little bit light on their earnings, excuse me, a little light on the revenues. They beat their earnings. So far, stock is down about 4% after the close. We'll see what they say on their conference call, but even this, look how tight, before it broke this 217 level, this 216 level that was beyond the range, look how tight this thing went for literally two days. Look at this, two days of tight word action on Tesla, unprecedented, right? Unprecedented action, but now we're looking at the bigger picture. We'll see tomorrow how the options market kinds of digest this earning report. As you can see here, we definitely have levels below this five-day moving average. There will be of interest for us tomorrow. We got this channel here from two days ago. We have the low from Monday to watch. And if they do start coming in for the 200s, the 195s, the 190 puts, obviously that is going to determine, or at least should determine, the directional bias of Tesla. So it's going to be very, very interesting to see. But again, it was always speculation. We've been talking about it on and off for a couple of weeks. Maybe we'll buy it back on this conference call. We don't know, right? We don't know. By the time you guys see this video, Tesla could be at 240. We have no idea, but for right now, how it's trading after the close, it's down about four, four and a half percent. Cues on this news really didn't budge. It really didn't. Cues are down what, eight cents after the close? Excuse me, 15 cents after the close. Not really a big reaction there. So the most important part going into tomorrow's day is not the individual names, right? It's the individual channels that are going to set a precedent by the cues. And since majority of these stocks move like a tribe, right? Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, AMD, right? They're all members of Google. They're all members of the QQQs. If one goes, they're all going to go. So watch this bottom level here, this 268 level. It held twice on the cues. If it starts building below 268, you know it's going to be a very, very high probability that the futures will start to cave in. If the market somehow starts rallying, again, there's a lot of room that still needs to be reclaimed from yesterday's high. So it's going to be a little bit more challenging to the upside, but hey, again, we never know. That's the whole point of seeing what the market's going to do instead of guessing or trying to outsmart or show somebody how intelligent and brilliant you really are on social media. That's going to really, really get you places in life. So going into tomorrow, that's about it. I hope we can get out of this range. The only thing that is going to solve that contraction problem is getting below that channel, right? Or getting above that channel. If not, we're going to go sideways. And the most important part is, you know, we talked about this going into today's session, right? If you watched the video last night, I said our biggest problem is that everything's going to be in the middle of the range. I didn't anticipate that everything was going to stay in the middle of the range, but it did. So if you do your research, right? If you honestly sit down, whatever kind of trader you are, whatever type of stocks you're trading, if you do your research, you're probably going to have a really good idea, a good sense of what's going to happen next, right? What's going to happen? What type of day are you probably going to have? And based on what we saw from last night, we kind of knew it was going to be a tight day. So if you know there's going to be a tight day, level off your activity, guys. It's not a contest of how many trades could I put on. It's how many trades you can put on properly. And if everything is telling you all the data, all the research is telling you from the night before that, hey, stocks are in the middle of the channels, they need to get out, there's a good chance there's going to be a ping-pong effect or it's social media calls the chop factor. Hey, why are you pressing and trading 12 tickers? It doesn't make any sense. If everything's stuck, right? Up, down, up, down, up, down. What are you going all in here? What are you trying to accomplish? Are you trying to pacify your ego? Or are you trying to trade for longevity? You could only answer that question, right? So if you know going into tomorrow's session, there's a probability. Now that we're at least closer to the bottom range, there's at least a shot that we crack down the bottom range and start moving lower. But if you do know going into tomorrow and you did your homework, you went through all these charts and you say, well, if there is a possibility that there might be another day in the middle of the channels, why would you go out of your way tomorrow to try to squeeze water or rock if you don't have to? Remember, guys, it's not about being right. It's not being about popular on social media. It's about staying in business. If you're serious about your trading, you put in the work, you go into the next day prepared, and if you're not prepared and if you don't look at the market the same way as reality is kicking in, you have a very, very tough problem. But I think a lot of you guys have been really, really intelligent, incredibly hardworking in your efforts to kind of make this thing work, right? And I think a lot of you guys are at the point of sensibility that you're gonna let the market dictate what type of day you're gonna have, not the day that you want. Guys, have a great night. God bless, gotta run. I will see you guys all tomorrow. Take care.