 Master's week is finally here once again. The field is set. The contests are up on Fanduul.com. The rain is coming. We're gonna break it all down from a PGA DFS perspective. Letting you know, all need to know before this week's event, we're gonna break down roster construction. We're gonna talk about Augusta. We're gonna talk about our favorite players and each salary tier over on Fanduul to get you ready for the 2023 Masters. This is the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by NumberFire. That's right here on the Fanduul podcast network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire. Joined here as always by Brandon Gedula. He is the senior managing editor of NumberFire.com. Brandon, it is Master's week. How you doing today? I'm good. Real good. We're recording this live. Yeah. We haven't done in a while. So I feel a little rusty. Trying to stay in frame as I dodge around. But yeah, I mean, it's been like the past month. I've been trying to look ahead to Master's stuff. Always try to learn new things about Augusta and try to find edges there. And kind of the harsh reality is like a handful of guys can probably realistically win to anyone else would be a shock because it is the Master's. But yeah, kind of looking forward to saying that a lot of great golfers are playable in our Fanduul lineups. And you can kind of pivot around as you see fit. Yeah. I think it's a good week to embrace the typical mindset we have with the FS where you try to be different without being dumb. And the question is how is, what do we do to be different this week? You know, what qualifies being different? How do we do so without being suboptimal and stuff like that? So we're going to break down pivots we see in the field. We're going to break down what you want to emphasize at Augusta based on the research brand that is done leading up to this event. And let's just break down our favorite plays over on Fanduul for this week. But first, before we do that, a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast because we have not just PGA podcasts every week, but also MLB DFS via the solo shot. We have NBA DFS for a couple of days still via Tom Vecchio in the Daily ISO, UFC for big events via Austin Swain all right here in the same podcast feed. So go make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast. And if you like what you hear, leave us a five-star rating as well. So if you want some betting content around the master's tomorrow, we'll be talking to some guy named Brandon Godula on covering the spread to break down his thoughts on betting insights for the master's over at Fanduul Sportsbook. So if you want to bet some outrides, bet some top 20s, stuff like that, check that out. That'll be on the covering the spread podcast feed in the morning and also over on the Fanduul YouTube page after the fact later on. Are you looking to have a stake in the master's this weekend? Well, Fanduul has you covered with the PGA Mega Eagle Contest, which is now live. Test your knowledge of the PGA tour by putting together a six-person lineup while staying under the salary cap and using Fanduul's live scoring feature. Follow along as you compete for a share of $750,000 with first place taking home $150,000, all for just $15. The entry fee, $15 there again, $750,000 total dollars in prizes, whether it's household names like Tiger Woods and Jordan Spieth or lesser-known golfers and sleeper plays you may have your eye on. We're gonna tee up on Thursday. There are plenty of options for you to fill a lineup as you compete for first place. Thursday will be here before you know it to submit your Fanduul Alliance today. Eligibility restrictions apply, go to Fanduul.com or download the Fanduul app for more details. Let's take a look here at the master's. Shockingly, it is at Augusta National. I'm sure that you are all blown away to hear that. It is 7,545 yards. It is a par 72. There are 88 golfers in the field for this year. The top 50 plus ties make the cut after the first two rounds. And a reminder that the 10 stroke rule no longer applies. So just the top 50 plus ties make the cut after the first two rounds. Now, given the number of guys who are legacy invites and stuff like that, it's still a decently high cut odds for the top guys in the field. But it is worth mentioning that only the top 50 plus ties make the cut after the first two rounds. Brandon, as mentioned, you've been looking at Augusta for months now, trying to dig in and try to identify what stuff matters and trying to find golfers who will do well at Augusta. What have you uncovered and what should we know about Augusta before we fill out our lineups? I have learned that good golfers tend to do well at Augusta and that bad golfers and golfers who are on the senior tour, sorry, the champions tour, they don't do quite as well. Have you pushed these findings to like the Pulitzer? Pulitzer is for journalism, I guess, actually. Would that be- Hey, this is journalism. What would this be for? Would this be for, would you get like a Nobel Prize or this? Like which awards category would this be under? Probably in Nobel Prize in mathematics. Okay, Nobel Prize in mathematics. Have you considered applying? Do I nominate you? How does this work? I've never been up for a Nobel Prize. I think it's a nomination process. Okay. I'll work on that and you tell me what you learned. I'll nominate my own work. Good golfers are good. I'll do it for you, don't worry. But whenever we talk majors and really tough fields, because we have the, I still don't know if it's elevated or designated events or something else, but we've had a lot of extra fields be really strong. And one of the secrets that's kind of an open secret and something that we can kind of complicate a lot is you want to build lineups where you have like maximum win equity. And if you're taking chances on guys who are like tiers and tiers below the average, which is elevated for a field like this, you tend to do yourself a disservice. We don't have another rundown, but I do actually have some notes on not optimal lineups, but lineups that won the mega eagle or the equivalent back from 2018. So I can kind of dig into some numbers throughout the show as they kind of fit, but it's a course where past history is more predictive than anywhere else on the PGA tour according to data golf. Data on course history and how do you get into this to play in it, you're good. And then how do you play well in it while you're good overall? So I'm not trying to be tongue and cheek anymore about it, but you kind of want to find ways to maximize the amount of golfers you can roster who you feel actively good about. And we talk all the time about wanting six out of six chances for our guys to have win equity. I don't really know if that's super doable this week because frankly, I'd be surprised if like, I haven't like gone down the list, but maybe 12, 15 names. I'd be like, okay, makes a lot of sense. Outside of that, like I would be surprised that certain names won. So I don't think it's a week where I can sit here and say like, I need to make sure that all my guys have a chance to win just because it's so, so top heavy. But in terms of the key stats, like I kind of wanted to sort of preface that I'm letting generally overall skill win out here. As far like the key stats, one thing we talk about all the time with Augusta is driving distance. And I don't think that like that's wrong. And I don't think that people who put emphasis on it are wrong, but off the tee play does a better job of explaining in round strokes gained than just distance or accuracy. Actually, accuracy actually kind of wins out over distance. And one way we can think about why that might be is that there are just certain golfers you get to play the masters who can't hit it really far but don't have complete games otherwise and they kind of struggle. So just looking at distance as like a singular variable is not gonna be enough. Stroke skiing off the tee is a much better predictor. It's like two to three times more predictive in terms of predicting in round strokes gained at the masters, which we have two years of data from thanks to data golf. Shawling data at Augusta historically is a huge nuisance but data golf has some stuff to definitely check that out. But so off the tee, I'm looking for strokes gained off the tee, not just distance alone. After that, we know the typical other variable that we like to look at and say with Augusta is that it's a second shot course which means strokes gained approach, your iron play. It bears out in the data. It has the strongest R squared value within round strokes gained compared to the other stats, which is typical for any PGA tour course but we see it again at Augusta. So underlying stroke scan approach do a lot of the heavy lifting. And I think one thing that I found that was probably more insightful than anything else is we always talk about the greens, we look at the greens, we know that they're really tricky, really fast, just difficult in every sense of the word but it's actually stroke scan around the green that kind of gets a bigger boost with predictiveness in terms of in round performance than actually putting, which is kind of decreased from the tour average. I'm not gonna go through all the numbers cause it's like hard to kind of talk about and like cling to but point being, being better with your wedges is gonna be more important here than it's your average course and the putting itself is actually surprisingly a little bit less. Now this is just two years of data but that's a lot of rounds that adds up quickly. So again, if you wanna get like granular, I think you have a hard time being granular without looking at all four facets of strokes gained cause they're all important but in terms of waiting, for me it's gonna be approach off the tee around the green and then putting which yes, captures everything but you give different weights to that kind of stuff and I think that's the way that I'm going. So all that is to say, I want good ball strikers who are complete players. It's not revolutionary but I'm not just looking for great tee to green guys or great putters or super long hitters. I gotta see more than just one aspect. I think to back up your point on distance, looking back at last year and like this can be flawed to look at just golf course you finished well and where there are various stat profiles but if you look back at last year, golfers have finished inside the top 10 include Conmore Cowah who ranked 83rd in distance on the PGH war last year but 29th in accuracy, 36th in strokes gained overall off the tee. So strokes gained off the tee encapsulated how good he was in that regard. He just wasn't super long. Corey Connors, same thing, 78th in distance, 20th in accuracy, fifth in strokes gained off the tee, sung JM, 71st distance, 27th accuracy, eighth off the tee. So I think that I'd agree with you where if you can gain strokes off the tee and be good there, I don't really care how you do it because we do see guys who are of that mold push for like really good top and finishes here. So do I want distance? Yeah, of course I want distance. Like, well, I'm not at a longer course. Am I gonna sell out for it? No, am I gonna prioritize it overall over like overall strokes in off the tee? No, I think that those are the better ways to play things here based on both what you found. I think that that was kind of what led me down that path initially, but then I think there's other data that backs it up and it's not just me looking for reasons to agree with you on a certain thought process. As far as the around the green play goes, I think there's two reasons to bump that up as well. One is like you mentioned, there is the actual data saying that but also anecdotally, if we have 50 or whatever amazing golfers in this field, it's harder to have a key flaw and still be good. Which is why we talk about overall golfer quality here more than we do at the Valero or whatever, I mean, we did there too, but like more than we might in other events because it's harder to have holes. Yeah, I mean, we've started to look at overall performance more than we have in the past. Yeah. But yeah, you can't really get beaten up in a particular aspect and be top five this week. I mean, I guess maybe you can, maybe the data does say that, but Schaeffler last year, top 13 in all four strokes gained categories, Rory, 34th in putting, but you know, it is what it is. If you sink it from around the green. Yeah. So, yeah, you wanna see good golfers and I think maybe this is a good time too, just to touch on like the mega eagle stuff, those winning lineups. So over the past five years, six golfers per lineup over the past five years, obviously 30 golfers entering the Masters, only three of them were ranked outside the top 50 in the official World Golf rankings. Robert McIntyre was 74th CT PON 176th and then Victor Hovland whenever his salary was 7,100 and he was low AM was outside the top 900 in the official World Golf rankings entering. We know like Victor Hovland's kind of a special talent now and he was low AM, but he finished like 30, he finished 32nd but the salary of almost minimum was enough to get there. But you're kind of like you wanna find ways to make sure you're being balanced. And yes, you can still roster the superstars like the chef, you need the winner, we know that, right? But it's, you don't really wanna have multiple like super low salary guys. Again, similar stat here, 27 of those 30 golfers in winning lineups had a salary of at least 8,000. The other ones, the three who were below 8,000, Victor Hovland again, low AM kind of special and in hindsight probably would have viewed him as like someone who could really play well this course despite the fact that he doesn't chip well. CT PON pretty much an anomaly there. And then the, of course, the year that Rafa Cabrera Bayo was 7,400, was the top 25 golfer in the world. So basically- Use miss salaried. Yeah, and like then basically, unless you're Hovland or miss salaried, there's been one guy over the past five years at a true punt level salary to stand out. So like just be careful this week and this as much as the other stats all illustrate, don't get careless just because it's easy to make the cut. Don't get careless like with maybe some live golfers who salaries are low. That's not to say that they can't play well, but you don't want multiple punt plays just to get access to two or three superstars because you're gonna do yourself too much of a disservice unless you hit on an anomaly. And if that's how you wanna play things, go ahead but that's not what the stats say to do. And I wanna go back to what you mentioned about the top 50 in the world golf rank. The world golf rankings are pretty flawed. As far as they're getting better, but like if we look at data golf, true strokes gained within this field, even if you go like, I know that the top 50 thing may seem daunting, like, oh man, like I have to have six golfers who are that good. It's not that bad honestly, given the way things are composed here. Like if I look at the top 35 in true strokes gained across the past six months, you've got a decent number of guys with salaries below $9,000. Like there are 10, seven right there, eight. There are more than 10 golfers in the top 35 with salaries lower than $9,000. So you can fill out a six-person lineup while staying under the salary cap and not having guys who don't have a realistic path to a top 10 finish, maybe not a path to a win, but like a top 10, they can do that. So I feel like before you put a golfer in your lineup, ask yourself, can I realistically see this person finishing instead of the top 10? If no, I would try to get up, try to get up from that salary, try to find another shot because I want five guys with a shot to win. If I need to go for a six guy who has like good top 10 odds, fine, I can live with that. I think that's the way to go. I agree with you where we're not gonna get six guys with realistic win odds given the field, but even in a cash game, upside matters because you want to erase the mistakes you make elsewhere. And so I think that that's an important thing to keep in mind. And I'm not super familiar with salaries like double check and stuff because I don't really track the world golf rankings. There are eight guys in the top 50 with salaries of 7,900 or lower and there are 14 in the 8,000 range. Like it's doable. And it basically says like take some caution with the guys you're willing to take chances on and that's all I can really throw out there. And if people wanna take some long shot swipes, feel free. Yeah, just don't think that it's impossible but even though it sounds tough, it's not impossible to fill out lineups that would fit this criteria. Okay, you mentioned Brandon that course history does matter a lot. So let's dive into golfers who have done well at Augusta in the past. You're looking at the strokes gained numbers from the past five masters. Who stands out to you when you filter it that way? Yeah, so I, you know, look, it's the masters and I always list past winners who are in the field and that's everyone. So I'll clarify that a bit later. But yeah, I like to look at the past five years for courses because I wanna kind of account for somewhat recent form and not just look at, especially for the masters a decade ago, because it's not gonna be predictive, but I then have Will's Alatoris and I'm only looking at golfers with at least two starts in that span but Will's Alatoris I think is gonna be a really interesting name this week because he's kind of working his way back from injury, working on the swing. A salary of 10,000 but a T6 for him and a solo second. Hard to do much better than that. Another name that we'll probably talk about or you'll hear talked about in some detail because of the fact that he is no longer with the PGA Tour but Dustin Johnson, 10,300. Obviously a win in 2020 in the year that it was in November, missed the cut after that but then top 12 in the other three events book ending those events. Also I have a table of this in my helper on numberfire.com it's easy to follow from that regard. Scotty Schaeffler, two top 20s in the win. John Rom, four top tens and a T27 from last year, Cam Smith. Very intriguing name again. T3, T10, T2, T51 and T5. I remember always talking Cam Smith on the master show over the years. And like he doesn't seem that phased by the live tour versus PGA Tour stuff. He said that nobody's ever really told him we're a PGA show but no one's really been rude to Cam Smith. Joaquin Neiman seems to feel the complete opposite. So I don't know what's happening but Cam Smith I think is gonna be fascinating for this week. Rory McElroy next up at a 2.03 strokes game per round. Second, missed cut, T5. Of course, the second from last year, sort of like not a very competitive solo second necessarily but that's kind of Rory's bag and a lot of his great finishes. And Justin Thomas, I'll kind of stop there but Justin Thomas I think always had the rap of like not being particularly good at Augusta. And it's not like it's been terrible but it just hasn't been phenomenal. And nobody quote me on this but like if we would look back at his full career he'd look worse but over the past five years, T8, T21, fourth, T12 and T17. I don't think people are gonna wanna play Justin Thomas and I think people have the reason to play Justin Thomas like based on super recent stuff but you can justify playing Justin Thomas pretty easily if you're willing to say he's gonna revert back to like who Justin Thomas is sooner rather than later and the salary of 11-2 is pretty elevated so like that's substantial but anyone on this list stand out to you actually I guess and then I'll rattle off the rest because there's some value names down there. I do wanna ask you about the live guys because we have a good read on how John Rom is golfing. We have a good read on well as our tourists playing through the injuries and stuff like that. We don't have as good of a read on the live guys and a lot of them are on this list of golfers who have good history at Augusta. Dustin Johnson is there, Cameron Smith is there, Patrick Reed is there, Brooks Kefka obviously. There are a lot of guys in this list who fit that and I mean we can like if you go to data golf they have data on you know, strokes gained relative to the field and live events but there's no like shot link data in terms of like showing how they're doing it and stuff like that. So I can see that Brooks Kefka had success in Orlando but it's harder to tell how he got there. So how are you judging their form? How are you? Do you find yourself gravitating towards them here? Are you off those guys? I know it's not a one size fits all discussion but what tools are you using to try to make the decision on individuals? So I'm still tracking live scores round by round adjusting for recency so that I can model things out for whenever they are in the field. That doesn't really help anyone else necessarily to like my personal database but I think like the frankly the best resource in this instance is data golf. Like whenever these guys are gonna be in fields they have a query tool. Their stuff is you know, their samples are gonna be smaller. Their past 50 rounds are gonna stretch back longer than you know, other guys. So it's gonna be harder from that perspective. So maybe you put like the time restraints on it which you can do on data golf and look at the past like six months of data. I think that's relevant but you kind of have to figure out like what and I kind of explained this very often whenever we get like swing season events and we're getting like a European tour or DP world tour and corn fairy tour call ups and trying to compare like what's a top 10 on the corn fairy tour compared to the European tour that kind of stuff. I mean data golf does this for us but they also have a field strength adjustment tool. They're pretty high on the live tour kind of rated as like an average PGA tour event right now. So like good results there are probably pretty solid. Then again, there are 54 holes that's more variance. We don't know what the granular stats are. So it is case by case. For me though, like the best case I could make for these guys is they really want to win. Yeah. But like Rory's really wanted to win. Sure. Epicasta. Motivation only goes so far when it's the freaking masters and everyone has high motivation. Like everyone's game is basically geared to play their best golf like right now. And when we talk about current form over the past three months, we'll see there's a ton of guys in great form who were superstars. So I think it is case by case. There aren't a ton of plays that I would prefer from the live tour compared to other guys. I'm not going to prefer Cam Smith. So other names who have been golfing on the PGA tour. I think it might come more in like the value range with Joaquin Neiman. I think is the only live guy in my helper. I did 16 golfers total for this week. I think it's loving Mito. Mito's close. The win simulation model likes him well enough but yeah, I'm not going out of my way to play these golfers with depressed calories. But you're also not going out of your way to actually avoid them either. It's kind of what I'm getting. Yeah, not necessarily. I think like the, they're still playing golf. They're playing more golf I think than they probably, and they're going to be playing more golf than I think they initially thought they were going to be playing. But that's a conversation for another time. Brooks Kepke just won in Orlando. How much is that worth? You can try to quantify it the best we can. Like Data Golf tries to quantify that. Am I going out of my way to play Brooks at 89 whenever his win odds have shortened from 75 to 37? And I think a lot of people are going to take note. Not really. Plan 54 holes is different than 72 holes at one of the most demanding physically and mentally courses that we have on, like it's tough to walk Augusta. Not that I've, obviously not that I've done it, but that's something that we definitely know. Certain golfers like Brooks, not necessarily, not necessarily in the best of health. And I don't watch live golf for a lot of reasons. So I can't say exactly how he looks. I don't know if I get the CW to be honest. I think you got to download the app, but. Really? It's not on the actual TV. Like I think you, I think you can watch it through the app. Cable, I just, you know, I used it to watch NASCAR, you know, instead. So yeah, I mean, I'm not like out. And yeah, part of why you're asking is the Cam Smith, the Dustin Johnson thing, but just below, you know, JT on this list of current form is Patrick Reed. Brooks is on the list. Like I wouldn't talk to anyone out of plan to live guys, but I don't really view it as like, oh no, their salaries are too low. They're playing just as good golf as anyone else. Can't really quantify that. Yeah. And there's going to be some of them in the mix. And frankly, just look, I want it for like the drama. I love the drama of it. If there's some guys in the mix on the weekend, but they're not necessarily going to be core plays for me from a DFS standpoint, whenever I have other viable options at similar salaries. And again, data golf is doing the work to adjust for field strength. They are digging into those numbers better than I could. And when you compare like data golf numbers versus salaries, a lot of the live guys aren't going to grade out as being phenomenal options. So that's the reason I'm not super high in most of them. I do like Mito who we'll talk about later on, but it's not like a hard and fast rule. You know, I'm not actively avoiding them at like for any reason, stuff like that. I don't wind up on a lot of them just when I consider salary and stuff like that. So you mentioned that a lot of the stuff, I'm going to skip over the winners because a lot of them are old. It's very ageist of me, but here we go. Anyway, let's talk about current form because you mentioned that a lot of the studs in this field are in good form. Enlighten me. Have we heard anything from John Rawl? Ackler recently, they've been hanging out, sipping white claws. What have they been doing? Any noteworthy events in them? Well, I can't speak to what they've been drinking. So should we scrap the segment? No. Okay. I've decided against that. So over the past three months, according to DataGolf, the leaders in true strokes gained in the field before the masters, Scottie Schechler, at a plus 3.05, which is disgusting. Anytime anyone gets above a three, over really any sample, but it's seven events for Schechler. It's a pretty solid sample to be at a three. Pretty sick. I think Schechler's going to win. I think it's going to happen again, but nearly made the final at the match play, which I know we talk to DataGolf constantly, but they have strokes gained for the match play, which may not be perfect, but it's at least something that, just because match play is its own thing. So the strokes gained stuff is probably not as important, but nearly made the final at the match play, Schechler did. Won the players, won the WM Phoenix Open, T4, Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 with Genesis. He's got 10 straight top 12s or better. Like that's phenomenal. His, I think maybe the only case you could make again, Schechler is being a good play is that the putter kind of seemed a little weird whenever he ended up losing in the match play, but that's the kind of thing that you only pick up on if you're watching stuff and you wouldn't really know otherwise and Schechler. He got rattled in the, the consolation or like the quarter of a semifinal, which means that he got to the semifinal, which is I think still good, you know, even for Scottie Schechler. Yeah. Like, look, with a field like the Masters, you have to nitpick reasons for someone and for against someone. And if for you, you're like, I think Schechler is losing with the putter. We have a better reason. Ryan Spring on YouTube, his last name is Spring. So I think you'd have a good read on this says that the weather narrative is against Scottie. Scottie doesn't like the elements. And if a guy with the last name is Spring is giving us this read on an event with a lot of rain in the spring, I feel like I got to trust Ryan here. So I'm going to say the weather narrative is the strongest reason to avoid Scottie Schechler. Who does like the weather? I like rain. If I'm inside, I think rain is good. Pro rain. I'd be interested to see the splits for Schechler. Oh, you meant golfers. I thought you meant like humans. Okay. Sorry. No, that's different. Yeah. Yeah. Cool. No. Cause like, sure. Look, if, if you're reasoning for not liking Schechler is he doesn't like the elements. That's viable. I don't know enough about every golfer's personal preference and we don't really have good data on, we have some like stuff in wind, but other than that. Random question that's not correlated. It rains a lot in Northern Ireland, correct? Is that a curiosity? I don't know the climate. I think it does. I was in Ireland personally. I think it does. Just not related to anything. Not related to anything. Just asking hypothetically. I'll continue on with the list and you can research the annual precipitation in Northern Ireland. But John Rom, is it a 2.86? Feels like kind of a while ago at this point that Rom was literally unfaithable, like unbeatable. One of the tournament champions, one of the American Express, the Genesis. Those are just in 2023 alone. He ended 2022 with great results. His pass three though, T39 and Arnold Palmer withdrew from the players due to an illness and one, two and O at the match play, which I don't care about. Again, if your reasoning is like Rom's losing it, that's fine. Frankly, the better case against Rom is that he's doing a lot of the damage with the putter and that his driver is not particularly as strong as it has been in the past. But you can't really argue with the results otherwise. A third over the past three months, Jason Day, 2.55 strokes game per round adjusted for field strength. He's got seven straight top 20 finishes with a great all-around game. It's not just the short game. He seems pretty back and without looking, I feel like you're gonna be in on him. So. Shocker. Max Homa, 2.41, pretty similar profile today in the sense of great putting but also great iron play even better than Jason Day. One, the farmers in late January, four straight top 15 since then. Historically, he's been a bad player in majors. I don't know if that's fair because Max is very clearly a different golfer than he has been over the majority of his career. Again, though, if you're like, I think people are too into Max, doesn't show up at majors. That's kind of the like, you kind of have to get to that point with golfers to get them out of your player pool or else you're gonna try to be playing, you're gonna be trying to play everybody. You can't do that. So, you know, with day, you're like, he's not gonna hold up. Like the back's gonna be an issue. He just kind of had some like, I think it was supposedly allergies, but. Don't tell me this right now. Like, you know. I'm gonna be like nervous from now until like Sunday night. Well, probably Tuesday night based on the weather forecast. If you make me worry about Jason Day allergies right now. Welcome to rostering Jason Day. I mean, I never used to be here. So I feel like this is just me making up for lost time. Next up, Patrick Cantley. And like, don't get lost in like, what a list this is of like superstars who were in great form right now. Cantley's at a 2.3. The ball striking is dialed. He's got four straight top 20s, including top fours at the Genesis and the Arnold Palmer. Historically, not maybe the greatest in majors, but two straight top 15s at majors. Again, if you think Cantley doesn't have it in majors well enough, sure, cross them off. If you want a golfer who does everything well and is in good form, Cantley should be somebody to consider. Rory 2.26, switched over to a new putter. Some run a ton by at match play when I was watching, but also, you know, almost won the whole thing. So, which is it? Like, is the putter back? But again, it's the putter. You can say Rory at Augusta. He's just backdooring everything. He's never going to be in contention. But, you know, the soloist. He almost backdoored a win last year. So, you know, if Scotty had just like slipped a bit he could have done it. Well, she after like nine putted on 18. But Tony Finau, feels like Finau's like toast right now. Where's he been? Well, like people, I've not seen like the best sentiment on Tony Finau. He's at a 2.19, top 10 Tony. No top 10s and five straight starts. Gotta be bad, right? But those were all top 25s. Elite iron play, historically good at the Masters. The putter for him, definitely trending up. Calamore, Cal is at a 2.12, Xander is at a 2.01. Then it's a teardrop to Cameron Young at a 1.91 and then a drop to Tiro Hatton at a 1.75. He's got a nice mid-range salary but hates Augusta. So, there's a very clear, what I guess Xander is the cutoff. Top nine then, in terms of like great super recent form. And we gotta like figure out how to differentiate between these guys and whittle it down. It's not super easy. So, if your reasoning is maybe Sheffler's got the, like he's in his own head with the putter. If that's what it takes for you to whittle it down, like I can't argue with it. I think he's the best process play though, but you gotta figure out something, right? So, we're gonna talk about Sheffler, Rahm and Rory in the betting section. But I didn't wanna dig into Homa and Cantley because you mentioned that Homa, not the best major history, but the caveat being he's golfing out of his mind right now and at a better level than he's been for past majors. Cantley has been at this level for a bit, maybe not at this level, like he's been really good recently, but he's been a relevant name for a very long time. It hasn't had any like pop, pop, pop performances at majors. Does that worry you at all? Because Cantley's in a range that I kinda wanna be in. His salary and fan dual is 11-1. We do have Xander Sheffler at 10-8, not a lot of major concern there. Colin Mora-Cowell, 11,000. I've heard of him a couple of times in majors. You know, just throwing that out there. Jason Day, 10-7, as you know, is my guy right now, apparently, unless he has allergies. So is there enough concern with Homa and Cantley around the major performance where you are lower on them? Or do you think that's just gonna lower their roster rates? I think it'll probably lower it a little bit. I prefer Max, because the salary is much more generous. And in that range, I'd rather just play Xander at 10-8 than Cantley, I think. It's close. I like Cantley, is it better? It's like my win simulation model likes Cantley, Finau and Xander, which is not a huge surprise at their respective odds. So I might as well just be all right playing like Xander and Finau and having Cantley third on that list due to the salary on Fandle, but it's not like I'm out on Cantley. As for Max, he was what? He's top 15, I think at the PGA. His salary is also 10-4, so it's a bit of a different discussion for him versus Cantley at 11-1. So he was T-13 at the PGA, T-47 at the US Open, missed the cut at the Open. Has not really putted well at a lot of the majors, but the ball striking has been kind of fine, especially lately. So I'm not writing off Max. Simply due to the fact that he's historically been pretty bad at majors, made a cut finally at the Masters last year with the T-48, two missed cuts before that. So he's played here three times. I don't see enough to move away from that. Yeah. I think the other reason to be less skeptical of Max is that he has been putting up sick performances against very good fields. Like a lot of his best finishes have come in the elevated events, whereas like in the past, we talked about him on the California swing, and he'd be like, okay, it's January events. He's from California. That's why Homa popped there. Maybe they didn't translate, but like that has followed him beyond those events this year in really tough fields. So Homa at 10-4, I think if you go with like a very balanced approach, he should be one of the guys you would turn to. I don't worry about it for him. I think it's more of a discussion with Cantley than it is with Homa down at 10-4. Let's dig into what the bookmakers are saying before this week where we have an actual favorite, a standalone favorite right now, Scotty Schaeffler shortened to seven to one. He is the favorite of Fandell Sportsbook, Rory McIlroy plus 750, John Rom, the final guy before a fall-off. He is nine to one. Got Jordan Spieth at 17, Patrick Cantley at 19, Cam Smith back into our lives here at 21 to one. Justin Thomas is 22 to one. Tony Fienow at 24. Colin Moore Cowan and Xander Schaeffler are both 25 to one. And Cameron Young and Jason Day are rounding out the top group. They are both 27 to one. Let's talk about this top studs here. Typically when we come to a major, we don't come, but we talk about them. From a DFS perspective, we say we wanna have balanced lineups because we want as many guys with a realistic shot to win our finished top 10 as possible. But here we have three guys with win odds of nine to one or shorter. Nobody else is shorter than 17. Does that impact your approach to roster construction for a major versus where you've been in the past? So I ran my optimizer with max win odds for my simulation model and has all three in it with two pun plays, which I don't like. And I'm not gonna do that. I also optimized it for best, like official world golf rankings and then I don't have anyone higher salary than Patrick Cantley. So I could see the case any which way, if you're really selling out for the winners, I would probably say like, you can mess around with plan two of the top three. Okay. What I'm more likely to be doing is going with one of them and then like a modified balance from there, which means that I won't have someone in the 11,000 range along with them. It'll be more like a Zander or a Homa, like Jason Day, well enough still, and Tony Finault, 10-1, like get one of the studs balanced from there. That is much more likely as to what I'll actually do in the majority of my lineups than try to get two of them in there because it's gonna, yeah, you get a lot of win equity, but you're also kind of getting two zeros in terms of potential winners from the bottom of your player pool as well. Yeah. I think that the one plus balance is the way that I want to go. Hypothetically, hypothetically, hypothetically, if you put John Rom, who is the lowest salary guy in that tier in there with again, hypothetically, Jason Day and Tony Finault who would do that, not me. They're definitely my player picks. You're at 91.33 left per golfer for your final three slots. I like guys in like the $83,000, $8,300, $8,000 to be a lot. That's actually Scottie Shephard. 8,300, hypothetically, again, I like a guy there. So that leaves me at 95.50 left for my final two slots. That means I could get back up to the 10,000 range if I wanted to for one of those, or I could go with a Sung-J.M, Victor Hovelin, guys like that. I can do that. Mattie Fitz is 95. Anyway, I was waiting for that. I think that approach works really well. So to me, if you give me one single entry lineup, I am going one of the big three plus two other guys in the 10,000 range. Maybe, I mean, I'm okay with it. It's like, Sung-J.M is the third guy or whatever. I haven't looked at Sung-J specifically, but like I think that that kind of approach is very fun. So I think, again, you give me one lineup, that's the way I go. One stud, one of the big three, plus two in the 10,000 range, maybe can't lay at 11-1 if they get a bit more top. I think that's the way I wanna play things this week. Yeah, I'm digging back at like these winning lineup construction, just from a salary standpoint. Last year, we had three guys at 11-2 or higher in the mega eagle winning lineup, and then 93, 83, and 81. I was with Kevin Na getting top 15, Corey Connors inside the top six. I just have a hard time, I have a hard time really liking anyone in the 7,000 range. There are two names that kind of draw my attention, but I don't really wanna tie up a ton of lineups to like just two options. And those names are Taylor Moore and Taylor Gooch, with more at just 73, Gooch is 77. I think I'm going a little bit more balanced. My question to you is, what is the lowest salary you think you will have in your player pool? I don't think Taylor Moore is a bad play. So I could be receptive to him at 73. So if I'm multi-entering, I could see myself using more. If I'm using one- Like how many? Like if you're voting, let's say five lineups. I probably shouldn't have one. Even if that really changes your lineup construction pretty substantially for one? Yeah, because let's say I go, let's say I keep the same approach, where I go with the, again, let's go Rom, Day and Tony Finau. And then I go with Taylor Moore at $7,300. Back to 10,5 or 10, no, 10,5, 10,050 for my final two slots. I can get Max Homa in there and then get a guy at 97 for my final slot. So I think that that is actually pretty fun. Or I could go more top heavy and go Taylor Moore and get two of the big three in there. So, yeah, for 20% of my roster construction, going a bit more top heavy, I find that personally. I think that works. But if you give me one lineup, that would not be my approach. One lineup, I'm not going below Keegan Bradley at 83, I think that's where my floor would be. Yeah, Keegan at 83 and Kurt Kiteyama, 83 as well. I think those are close. I'm not as in Kiteyama personally. I'm a little bit worried about the debutant's narrative. That's the main hangup for me. That matters mostly for winners. Yeah. It's not helpful not to have played here. Right. Not much is certain, but I don't care so much in DFS. But I do think that one thing that helps is that there are a decent number of guys in the mid-8,000 range who I like. I mentioned Mita Pereira earlier. I do like him at 86. Siwukim doesn't really count as a mid-range. He's 88. It's a little bit higher end. Tom Hage at 85, the approach play, approach God. He's replaced Scott Peirce. Sorry, Scott. Keith Mitchell. Keith Mitchell could work, yeah. So there are a lot of guys there, I don't mind. Do I want to have two there? I don't know. I'd probably prefer to go with one. But I think the 83 is my floor if I'm doing one lineup. I think so too. If I'm doing five lineups, I'm probably going to keep it around there because there's a very real possibility that how I settle things is build a lineup I like a lot and duplicate it and then switch out the top three guy in case that person wins. I think that works. I just like that idea more. Taylor Moore is top 50 in the official World Golf rankings, which is surprising to me, again, because I don't track them. But we also have a good crop of names who are outside the top 50 because they don't accrue OWGR points currently, like Mito, Gooch, DJ, Reed. What's Taylor Moore's top 10 odds in your win sims? I'm asking this on the spot so you can take your time. But he's 280 to 1 to win a Fandall. And maybe I'm just getting a little high on an $7300 guy, but that seems long. Top 10 odds? Yeah. Like 9%. OK. So we were talking about having a 23% to top 20, which is probably more. You're probably looking more for a T18 from Taylor Moore at that low of a salary. 18 is very specific. Well, it's not like top 12. Yeah. But like 9% to top 10 is not a bad number for a guy there. And I think that as long as you're not going like crazy, crazy with your exposure. So I think that having him in 1 fifth of my lineups, I'm OK with that. I can get behind that, I think. Yeah. Yeah, I don't dislike it. I'm probably more likely to play Taylor more than Taylor Gooch. I kind of think that Taylor Moore has been like we know what he's doing. He's putting really well. He's got really good iron play more often than not. Off the tee plays pretty good. Got some distance. Not terrible around the green. Yeah. Maybe I will go to Taylor Moore in a single entry. I mean, the way to do it is you have multiple single entry lineups in different contests. That's the way to play things. It would be my like first. If you gave me one lineup, I would not have been. Maybe I'm at least considering it now. Miles, this is the good path to making dumb decisions is getting too high a low 7,000 guys. So proceed with caution. But I don't think it's totally dumb personally. Yeah. I think I just always like to be able to pivot and build similar lineups so that I can keep my core like tight. Yeah. You can still keep your core tight just you're using different. You're getting actually different combinations, which is kind of nice. So I think I actually like from that perspective. All right. Taylor Moore. Taylor Moore or Scotty Schaeffer bet me. Heads up. Fandal points. If this happens, I'm clipping this. Just so you know, we don't ever pull clips in this podcast, but I will from this just so you know. OK, we mentioned that Schaeffer's odds have shortened. He was plus 750. He's now seven to one. Who other, which other golfers have had their odds shifted in a notable fashion the past couple of days? I'll start with those whose odds have shortened, which means they're getting betting attention. Patrick Cantley, 21 to 19. This is from Friday into Monday afternoon on Vandalsport's book. Tony Finau, 32 to 24. Love that for Tony. Brooks Kepka, 75 to 37. I think Brooks is going to get some attention at a Saturday of 8900 this week. Will he get attention from you? I'm interrupting you. Will he get attention from you? Man, I always like. I was playing Brooks in majors for too long. Yeah. I think it'd be interesting. I would pay substantial money for like a Brooks, Scotty Schaeffer final pairing. Just to see Brooks melt down. Scotty Schaeffer's on phase by anything. But I think for me. Probably not going to get there. I don't think I think. I mean, forgive me. I think he won twice. Yeah, he won Jetta, I think. I think other than that, it's been kind of spotty. Yeah. 29th and Tucson, 31st at Myacoba. Mr. Cut on that one of the Asian tour events they did. But we know that Brooks Kepka only gets up for the big events, which is why he won Orlando. When I think of big events, I think of Mystique. I think of Orlando on the lift tour. No disrespect to Orlando, by the way. Cool city, but yeah. I think I'm I think I'm firmly out on Brooks. I think with the the thought process that he will gain popularity, I agree. Yeah, I brought up also shortened. If I'm going to play, if I'm going to play a live guy in that range, it's going to be Neiman. Me, too. Oh, can we get a we get a Chile bet here? Me, too, versus Joaquin. No, those guys are friends. I know, but they full swing. They're friends. What about us betting it? We're not friends. Give me a Me, too, versus Joaquin bet. Sure, I'll take that. The loser has to buy the winner a Chilean flag. Nope. OK, I tried. We know we do head to heads. We have we have we have stakes on other things. Not doing great in those, though. So I think it coincidentally, two to bubble hats, hats being worn on the podcast on the show right now. So I got to. Got this down. Oh, you're actually doing it? Yeah, we said so. Oh, yeah, you said you wouldn't buy me a Chilean flag when I went. Yeah, we don't remember anything online on the line for on the fly. Had to have one thing I'm good at. Yeah, love it. Who else is shortened? Corey Conner, 75 to 48. Tommy Fleetwood, 75 to 50. Min Woo Lee, 75 to 55. Patrick Reed, 90 to 70. Why? For a winner. So he was a former winner last week. People love him. Why? I don't know. Fourth at Orlando. So don't know a single stat about that. Whose odds have lengthened? I don't want to talk about Patrick Reed anymore. So I have Rory and Rahm just because I think it's not worthy. If she ever shortened, they they lengthened Rory was seven. He's now seven and a half to one. Rahm was eight and a half. He's now nine and a half, but now down to nine, I think you move. So he's been wavering. Cam Smith, 21 to 24. Jason Day, 24 to 29. Sam Burns, 32 to 41. And Tiger Woods, 55 to 85. We haven't talked about Tiger yet. No, I haven't. I've been trying to avoid it. Tiger Woods' salary is $9,100. Are you in or out of that salary? I'm out. OK, you do. Very lengthy discussion there. One thing we did not discuss when discussing the studs is a cash game. You're picking one there. I assume it's Schaeffler, correct? For me, it's Schaeffler. His game is the most complete. He can get out of trouble most easily. It feels like I think Rory. With the with the fact that it's the masters, which has eluded him with the live guys around. I think there's going to be a lot of pressure on Rory once again. I think Scotty Schaeffler is going to wake up and feel a little pressure because he just doesn't feel like he's good enough. But that's like no different. He's not going to care who he's playing with. And then drawn, Rom, would probably be my second option. I probably rank them Schaeffler, Rom, Rory right now. What about you? For a cash game, Schaeffler one, Rom, two, Rory three. So the same as you, I'd agree. I think that's the correct ranking for that. For tournaments, I do like Rory a lot. But for cash games, I'd agree with that. Which golfers with lower salaries have odds to stand out to you? Yes, so if I filter things to 9000 and lower the best odds, kind of there's a few and then it drops off a ton, which is another reason why you probably want to be hesitant on loading up on too many value plays. But Brooks Kepka, of course, 37 to 1, Minwoo Lee, 55, Patrick Reed, 70 and Joachim Neiman, 85. All those guys are really hovering at the 9000 range between 88 and 9000. Mito Pereira, your boy, 100 to 1 at 8600 on Fandall. I'm not taking the label right now, please. I will use him. There's a difference. Siwoo Kim, Keith Mitchell, both 120. Bryson, haven't mentioned his name yet, 130. Same as Sahith Figala, Adam Scott. Adam Scott and Louis Weastazen or Westazen doesn't. Well, maybe he does care now. We haven't talked about it long enough. Maybe he's made a decision on that pronunciation. And Kurt Kiteyama, 140. And our guy, Tom Hogi, 150. So a sprinkle of like standouts from that standpoint. But not a ton. Keith Mitchell, $8,500. We know that he is a guy who has the distance, but also just like a good driver. I don't believe he's played Augusta before. Am I wrong in that? Let me check here really quick. Don't think he has checking, checking, checking. Oh, he did. He played here in 2019. Mm hmm. Keith Mitchell, $8,500 in a range that we'll likely be in. What's your read on him for this week? Oh, I think he's a player pick for me. Is he? Oh, I like it. I like Keith Mitchell. I mean, you know, really good off the tee. One of the one of the most balanced drivers that we have. But while it's not as impactful as I think most people want to assume it is, it's still important to be good off the tee. Yeah. He does have like that one dominant trait at least to keep him like a float. And off the tee plays the most predictable of all of the stroke gains that's so he should be able to pick up strokes on the field. And then from there, if you can just get up and down, you know, be relevant from there, it's a pretty reasonable value profile from that regard. He's not a standout anywhere else, but he's also not like actively hideous anywhere else. So I think that that helped him too. So I do like Keith Mitchell. OK, weather for this week sucks. There are isolated thunderstorms during the day Thursday, but minimal wind. That is the best day in the forecast. Scattered thunderstorms. Great rainouts increase throughout the day Friday and then just never go down. Wind speeds be around 10 10 to seven miles per hour. So that could lead you to prioritizing certain tea times within some lineups. But I have no idea who would benefit because we're almost definitively going to see stoppages and it's probably not going to end on Sunday. So shrug emoji, don't know whether it's going to suck. Does that force you, Brandon, to consider having more volatility in the way you view things where you lower exposures to guys multi-entering? How do you handle things knowing the weather is going to be booty? Yeah, I think there's a high risk of playing the the tee time wave game and getting it wrong and getting the worst end of it. It's also possible that just everyone has it terribly. So I think for me, I think the real thing is it's going to make me more aggressive in avoiding the the super chalk. Where if we get a read that, you know, it's Monday, it's earlier than even normal for us to record this. But you can kind of use like betting odds as a bit of a proxy for who's who's going to be popular. According to fans here at sports.com right now, John Rom is a little bit separating from the field in terms of his buzz. I mean, historically great at this course. I like Rom. I see the case for it. But if I could just play Rory instead, even though I prefer Rom, like I think I'm just going to be more willing to avoid the most popular plays and try to try to benefit from whatever chaos there is. And if a star gets, you know, misses the cut and I can benefit from it, like I'm willing to roll those dice more. And the fear of not playing Rom at a high popularity number is kind of lessened if the weather is going to be real bad. I think that's what I meant, too, is it decreases the FOMO because they're great greater odds that things get a little wonky. So I think that's the way I do things as well. OK, let's dig in now to our player picks here for the 2023 Masters. Brandon, beginning in the upper salaried tier, who is catching your eye on FanDuel for this week. The one guy I do have FOMO with is Scotty Schaeffler. It just feels like whenever his game is again, it feels this way for for Rom, too. But it feels like whenever Schaeffler's game is on, he won't go away. I know that Rom has the nickname of the buoy, but I kind of feel like that Schaeffler right now. It just looks like he's never going to play himself out of a tournament by playing silly, trying to play the hero shot or press. He is a very laid back guy externally. I think there's a lot more going on internally than he makes it seem. But frankly, this comes that like we can look at the stats, but it comes down to like sort of game theory and also just a gut feel at a certain point because the margins raise or thin between Schaeffler, Rom and Rory. I mean, it's getting a little bit bigger with Rory dropping out of that race over the super recent rounds. But Schaeffler, everyone's going to get everyone's going to hit bad shots over a 72 event, especially the course like this. I feel like Schaeffler is best suited just to take his medicine or play a hero shot whenever he can and be able to pull it off. If he's not going to be the most popular play, if it ends up being Rom, which is kind of the early trend right now, I have Schaeffler number one, both in cash games and in tournaments. I'm willing to move away from Schaeffler a bit in tournaments. If it turns out that everyone wants to play Scotty and the whole read is wrong or wrong, but it's so razor thin. I don't really know how you sit here and definitively say like one guy is the best play. And if I had to, it's it's going to be Schaeffler. Yeah, I think that straight up it's Schaeffler. I think that the read we're getting is that Schaeffler is a betting favor, which means he'll get attention. He's also the highest hour guy your research has shown. They tend to get a lot of attention. Rom is getting a lot of tags on fanshare, which means all Rory McElroy might fly a bit under the radar. So I like Rory. He is my top player pick this week for tournaments. Again, Schaeffler, I think it's a better cash game play. But Rory lead form at Augusta, despite not having not having a green jacket just yet for top 5s. He has two in the past three years. He ranks third in true strokes game the past six months. So he is behind both Rom and Schaeffler in that time. But he has the best distance of that group. And again, this is never a bad thing. McElroy has gotten dragged down by poor putting at times. But you mentioned the equipment change there and that could happen here. He could put poorly. We could he missed the cut here two years ago. It definitely can happen. But I have a hard time laying off Rory if he's going to be the least popular in this group. I think that for tournaments, he is very interesting. And I don't want to write him off just because he's been not quite as elite as Schaeffler and Ron the past three months or so. I think that he can still tap back into that. Now, you mentioned that our optimal roster construction is to have one stud and then dip into the 10,000 range. When you look at the 10,000 range guys, who is your favorite in that discussion? Yeah, I mean, optimal in terms of what I think I'm going to be most likely to do, it's going to be Xander. Once again, like it's not really a bit anymore that I like Xander, but I don't know how you would kind of dislike Xander at the salary. You know, he tends to be chalky. I think the luster has worn off and there's other other place that people like more than Xander at this rate. Miss the cut here last year, but third in 2021. Seventeenth and twenty twenty second and twenty nineteen. He's fourteenth in the field in strokes. Again, Tita Green, fourteenth in ball striking, eleventh in short game strokes gained over the past 50 rounds. I'm just you can't convince me that he's a bad player. No, I don't think he is. And I think that he's totally fine. I consider both Xander, Schaeffler and Patrick Cantley for my second player pick. I sell a little in Jason Day. And I think both those guys are a good place, too. But the reason I picked day is he's lower salary to 10 seven than both those guys. He comes with a better track record at the Masters and in majors more broadly, at least in Cantley. Day is a two point two four. True strokes gained the past six months per data golf, which ranks sixth in the entire field and getting that for 10 seven. He's doing it via gaining strokes in every category. We've seen incredible events to event consistency, which can be a bad thing if it implies there's not upside. But we've seen upside from Jason Day, too. And we see that consistency because he can gain strokes in so many different ways. If the putter is somehow off one week, he can gain strokes to green. He's 10 seven. I think that gives me a more balanced approach. So I do like Jason Day as a way to regain that balance. He is my favorite guy in this range over Schaeffler and over Cantley, not by a lot, but by enough where I do feel good about Jason Day as my number two golfer. Let's dig now to the mid range. Our second player. OK, is there anyone you don't like? Let's say Cameron Smith, Camp. So you don't like Cam Smith? Yeah. Where are you with JT? I think he's a good person to consider. I don't think I will get there. More like that's I think that's the way I would phrase it is I don't think I will get there. There aren't a lot of guys I actively dislike. I think I'm more likely to use Colin more coward than Justin Thomas, though. Yeah, that's kind of where I'm getting speed. I will not get there with Jordan speed. Really? Mm hmm. Why? Final rounds on Easter, Easter Sunday. OK, he's one of the past two Easter's. I've seen this stat. I definitely don't mind speed, but yeah, it's a basically what I what I was trying to get at is anyone. Easter narrative. Anyone from Jason Day and above, it sounds like you're kind of out on Cam Smith. I'm not out on can't lay at eleven one. And then more cala. Yeah, I think more cala. I would need a decent number of lineups to get there. But like I am more like actively down. No, OK, I just prefer this roster construction. So basically then I think anyone should be able to make this case. Aside from Cam Smith, who I don't I'd be fine just sort of getting to because I think Cam Smith is going to play fairly well, sort of as a baseline, whether he plays well enough to win his own conversation. Everyone's in play. Yeah. And that's what when we talk about being differed without being dumb, there isn't really a dumb option. Yeah. So trust your gut. I know, do your own research. Sorry, it's a weird phrase now. Like think about things. And if you have a read that you think that J.T. is going to feast this week using that's justifiable. I think that they're all justifiable as a way out for you. But yeah, these are our favorites and we want to stand by those plays. Yeah, but they're justifiable. If we go to the mid range on Fandall for the Masters, we both have the same top mid salary adoption. That guy is Tony freaking Finau at ten thousand one hundred dollars. Brandon, tell me why you're on Finau. Then I'll tell you why I'm here as well. I think the salary is too low on Finau. I talked about him in terms of the current form where the salary is or sorry, where the where the you know, he's not finished in top ten, so he's not top ten Tony right now. But he is top twenty five Tony right now and over the past 50 rounds, the ball striking is phenomenal. He's putting really well, which has not always been the case for Finau. The wedge play is the one knock that you could have on Finau. But I think he's kind of a capable around the green player and around around the green play stats are really volatile, especially because they kind of come from a smaller sample and they're so dependent on things like holdouts or, you know, atrocious shots. So for me, Finau has the form, has the course form, has the ball striking, has the putting, just has it all and the salary is too low. That's why I'm here too. I just think I agree with you. We're saying he's under salary because if you look at true strokes gained, he ranks fifth the past six months over a data golf, but he ranks 15th in salary. That gap is bigger than it should be. Like I think if you put Tony Finau at ten six, I'm still considering him. I might I'm not as high on him as I am, but I would consider him relative to Jason Day, Zander Shafley, Max Homa, guys in that tier. That's how I view Tony Finau. So in DFS, I want to stack value. And to me, if I can get $500 or $400 worth of edge on a golfer, I'm going to take that every time. So Tony Finau to me is if I have one lineup, Tony Finau is one of the bigger locks to be in that in the entire field, just because I think that he grades out so well relative to the rest of his tier fits my roster construction. And it's just a guy who I know has the upside to win this event. Who else do you like in the mid range beyond Tony Finau at ten one? I like Corey Connors, and I don't think I'll be alone in that like ten before the win. Like I'm still the the win odds have dropped a lot. But it is still Corey Connors and we're not talking like a Rafa Cabrera Bayo, where he's 74 instead of 94. He's still 94 and he had a pretty weak short game, despite the fact that he's like figured out a gust there really well. So I'm not going to move off of it. I'm more inclined to move off of plays at the top end. Now, again, if Connors is like top five and projected roster rate, that's different. But I don't think we'll quite get there with all the superstars we have. Good, good iron player, top 20 in approach over the past 50 rounds, three straight, top 10s at Augusta National. I mean, he's got to avoid missing too many greens so he's not relying on the up and down game. He's got to make some putts, which. You know, maybe not as certain as we'd like to assume, but he can kind of keep himself neutral with the putter. And then if you give me a good ball striker at 94, I think it just makes a ton of sense for someone who clearly is like feels comfortable at Augusta. For sure. And so I think that that's what we can like. Corey Connors. I have Justin Rose as my next player pick, but I didn't want to ask you. Are we overlooking Matt Fitzpatrick at $9,500? Yeah, it's a neck, right? Yeah, I think he's just not. Not healthy enough. Yeah. The iron plays down kind of seems to be losing some distance. He he did a lot of work to gain distance. Didn't bulk up like Bryson did. But yeah, like that experiment might have gotten him a U.S. open. And I don't know. I think he said that he that's been an issue for a long time. So I don't want to think that I'll never talk, speak ill of training, which was the event where he was like the favorite going in and it came out on like Wednesday that he was like playing despite being hurt. Was that how long ago was that? Do you remember? Because he at the Arnold Palmer, he golfed really well. The ball striking there was good. The short game didn't come up for him. He wasn't great at the players of the Valspar. But then he was OK at the match play. Some curious, like if he still has upside, I'm OK with the risk if it comes to the upside. But I'm like here when the injury. Because like you said, he said it's been around there for a while. But I know he mentioned specifically, he's going to play through at an event where he was like the favorite going in. I jettisoned. A lot of info from a week to week basis. So you're asking the wrong person. There was a, yeah, it was at Pebble Beach, so this is in February. He's had events since then where he has popped. So I think if you're OK with the risk in a tournament, he's still interesting. He was my poster boy for Pebble Beach. I meant like 9 percent to win. He lost 4.21 on approach per round. Well, that was only one round because it's Pebble Beach, but what shall I make? But I think he's interesting. So I mean, if we get there. So there's Matt Fitzpatrick, Will's Alatoris, Hideki. These guys are all kind of injured. Jason Day could maybe throw in that like. Sorry. So I'll put that in the ear, either. So like, I don't know. You could maybe make the case that some of those options are going to be forgotten about. Yeah. Especially if you're playing in like a super large tournament. Yeah. Sure, you could go super chalky and then like Matt Fitzpatrick, if everyone's just not interested, and that can be all it kind of takes the winning lineups for the for the mega eagle or not loaded up with golfers at super low draft percentages over the 30 who made it only four were sub five percent rostered. 11 were sub 10 percent, but two of those were like almost 10 percent. So like you don't have to get super weird. Yeah. If you're taking one option out of your six and get a little bit different, you can be pretty chalky otherwise. He's at least in play. I do think the safer option though is Justin Rose, who is my second player pick at 93. Rose has done well at Augusta even in years where his form was not super, super great. Finished seventh here in 2021. He's added a bit more distance since the new year, which is kind of new. And it's led to Rose gaining off the tee at both the players and the Valspar. He's got good approach play. He's a good putter. He's 93. We know Rose knows Augusta. Brandon, any thoughts for you on Justin Rose at 93? Definitely don't mind it. Probably should be more open to it than I am. But certainly not a name that I'm talking to anyone out of by any means. I do like Connors in this range again. I want to reiterate that. I thought about Tom Kim. The form was not as lead as it had been, which is kind of why I got talked off that plus like debut stuff like that. But thought about it at least. Yeah. Kim's interesting to some degree there. Yeah. Okay. Let's go to the value range. Who stands out to you at $9,000 or lower? I'm going walking Neiman at $9,000. Kim Smith again. I already said this, but Kim Smith has said like, there's no animosity. Walkie Neiman had an interview where he's like, these guys hate us. And I'm like, I'm not like, I'm not quoting him, but the sentiment was like, these guys hate us. And I'm ready to like sort of shut them up more or less. So again, it's a narrative just wanting to be good and saying that you're like going to play well does not mean that you'll play well or else I would just tell myself that and, you know, play a lot better golf than I do. But I think the case is still there for Neiman has finished out to the top 30 in the past two live events, but ended 2022 with good results. Top 10 in both Asian tour events in February. We know what Neiman is unless his game is completely different. And that's someone who can gain distance off the tee despite the smaller frame can absolutely gain strokes with his approach play. And we've seen him play well in tough fields and generally looks unfazed. Seems like he's going to be locked in. So he's kind of the one name that I'm looking to from the live guys. I could, I could also be talked into your boy who you've been talking about just talking up for for hours and hours and weeks and weeks. Can't wait to play Mito Pereira at the Masters to Jim. Now's the time. Tell me why I should like Mito Pereira at the Masters. He is my second player. My first value player pick. He's the one live guy I'm like decently high on it for this week. $8600 Mito Pereira. He's golfed well since he joined the live tour both there and then the Asian tour is kind of similar to what you discussed with walking Neiman. It's nice to see him doing well, even in like the more traditional formats and Pereira has done that. He finished sixth at the Saudi international. He was second, another one, 11th and another. He's been pretty good and good in the live events as well. The three that he's played in, he's never played Augusta. That's the one downside for Pereira, but for 86, I think he makes a lot of sense. So I do like Mito quite a bit given he is $400 lower salary than Neiman. I think he's been golfing pretty well. I know he's shown he can like do really well in this kind of field. So I want Mito, it could be stupid, but he, I've done stupider. I can guarantee that. Who else do you like in the value range? I got Keith Mitchell. T43 in 2019 at Augusta, which was his lone start in the calendar year of 2023. He's got four top 25s and only one missed cut, which came back in his first start of the year. He's one of the best drivers as we talked about. That gives him a high floor because the driver just is the most consistent because the conditions are the same with every shot. So for me, I think Mitchell at 85 very much going to be a core part of my process for the week among what is a pretty solid like mid 8,000 range. Yeah, I think it's totally fine. I do like this range. I do like Keith Mitchell. I prefer by a bit Keegan Bradley at 83. He has not played Augusta since 2019. So actually the same time as Keith Mitchell. So the 2019 narrative in full swing here and for Keegan honestly just middling results when he has been here, but he's been playing good golf for a good amount of time now and it's his best golf in a while. Specifically Keegan is showing upside. He's gained two plus strokes via data golf true strokes gained in four out of 11 events for Augusta 11 and he's been at 1.8 or higher and two of those as well. So six out of 11, 8, 1.8 or higher. The putting and shipping even better for Keegan even while maintaining solid irons. He's 83. So I think Keetiyama he mentioned is in play two at 83. I prefer Keegan. I do like Keith Mitchell. I like me too. So I think the overall takeaway is this range is not bad. I don't mind Taylor Moore again to reiterate that at 73, but this range is really not bad. And I think that it kind of drives home for me that I can get to Tony P. now or maybe Max Homa is my third ranked golfer in salary and still feel pretty good about things. Any final thoughts for you on the DFS side of things before we do win picks? No, I think we covered roster construction and touched on the always important like look it's the masters. We did the 11,000 ranging up. You could maybe draw some like hesitation with the Sam Burns or Dustin Johnson or something. But even the 10,000 ranging up is all viable. So it's sort of a lot of personal preference. Yeah. And I'm glad that we can talk about like what we think are the best process plays. But if you're playing like big tournaments, then a lot of different ways to go. So I think we're covered there. Okay. So let's talk about our win picks here. These are based on the win odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook. Brandon, when you look at those odds right now, the outright odds, who are your win picks for this week? Well, so we won. First of all, we want to find the winners here. Uh-huh. And we're looking at golfers. That is in fact the goal of a win pick. Thank you. Well, we're looking at golfers who we also think our values at their current win odds. Uh-huh. So the one no brainer I'll go with is Tony Finault 24. Very good. My motto has him at 19-1. Extremely rude. My motto has him at 19-1. I would have preferred that we would have recorded at a time when he was like 32 or 29, but at 24, there's still value there. So he's my first. Okay. As far as my second goes, if I'm like building a betting card, I don't tend to bet the favorites very often. And I see better win, or I see value on Patrick play and Xander Schroff lay at 19 and 25 respectively. But my model like Sean Rom better. Hmm. He should be nine to one. Oh. But I think my head just says go Scotty Shaffler. 70 to minute while you give me your picks so I can figure out which name I'm ultimately going to land on. I could be a real D word and take Rom, real duck. I don't know what I was going for. Take Rom. I'm not going to. I'm going to take. Okay. Do you have the win picks up our winning picks? Yes. Can you control left Jason Dade to know and then add one to that to find out how many times I picked him because I'm picking him again. You picked him at Genesis at 37 API at 31 and the players at 29, which was three pods in a row. Okay. Well, let's make it fourth time this year. Jason Dade 32 to one a fandal. I will take him as my first one. I would have taken Fina if you hadn't taken him. I'm not going to because I need to make a ground. So there's really no point there. But do you figure out your second one yet? I really want to go Shaffler, but I'll trust the model. No, I'm going Shaffler. Okay. Then I'll go wrong. Fine. I mean, I trust your model like I'm just going to do this the way I would bet it. And your model shows value on Robin 950. So I'm going to take Robin 9, 950. Yeah. So like there's again, it's the value, but I want the max win odds and I have Shaffler more likely to win than Rob. Right. But it's a better value. And we're doing this over the course of 40 podcasts, which means we're putting out 80 total units of win units out there, which means you just want the best values. And so I'm going to take the best value and go John Rom. Yeah. But Shaffer is going to win. John Rom is. Actually Rory. Rory just guaranteed Rory victory. Rory, I expect half the jacket. Snip, snip down the middle. I want half the jacket as credit for your victory. You're welcome. So your win picks are Scotty Shaffler at seven to one. Idiot. And 20 feet out at 24 to one. I've got Jason Day, part seven for 29 to one. And then John Rom at plus 950. We'll see how things play out. Any final thoughts for you before we close up shop for today? Uh, deciding between like Shaffler and Rom and can't lay like in terms of win picks is just indicative of how it feels to build every single lineup this week because the stars are here and it's going to be awesome. Yep. They certainly are. And we'll see how things play out. And the stars, meaning Keith Mitchell's in the field and we are all rejoicing at that fact. That is all that we have here for today, but as mentioned, we're here every week across the PGA DFS season, breaking down our thoughts on the fields. If you want thoughts on non masters events, make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed. Wherever you get your podcast, we also have NLB NBA USC for select events. Maybe with the USC WWE merger. WWE DFS back, uh, you know, for you out there at some point. So LA night mega star. I don't know what that is. Um, that's not like a minor league baseball team or something. No, he's a mega star. I don't know what that is. Anyway, um, DFS pods right here. Number fire, daily fantasy podcast feed. Also subscribe to the family YouTube page and check out covering the spread tomorrow for Brandon's thoughts and a betting perspective where I'll mock him for not taking John Rom here on the show. Brandon, if people have questions for you on Twitter or want to ridicule you and John Rom puts on the green jacket, where can they find you there? That is going to be tough, um, because I'm going to have to recommend and bet Rom myself. Even I picked Sheffler here. Not boy. Um, I'm on Twitter at Cadillac 13 G D U L A one three. And I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J I M S A N N E S. You can also follow the Fandall podcast network at Fandall podcast. Want to thank you all for tuning in today. Good luck to you with your DFS lineups for the masters. We'll talk to you once again next week. This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire.