 Hey, good morning, everyone. Lee Lowell here from smartoptioncell.com. Today is Saturday, July 9th, 2022. We're back for another edition of our Saturday Synopsis. We look at the charts, see what's been going on in the stock market, see what may happen moving forward. I'm a technical analyst. I look at the charts, that's my main go-to to figure out when it's time to get in and out of trades. Fundamental data, fundamental analysis is another way people look for trade entries. That's how they figure out how the sales, earnings, growth, PE ratios, dividends, all that good stuff underlying a company affects how they're going to move in the future. I'm under the impression and the belief that all that data traded by millions of people around the world every single day is and gets factored into the charts. Everyone knows this public information and it gets reflected on the chart. So that's really all I need to concentrate on. So we look at the charts. That's what I've been doing for the last 30 years or so. Been trading stocks, commodities, options, everything basically. And I look at the charts to give me a clue of what's been going on. So I'm here on Saturdays, most Saturdays to give you these free YouTube videos to show you what I'm seeing in the markets and kind of make a game plan, see what's going on for the week coming forward. So let's just jump right in as we always do. We look at the charts. We start with the S&P 500 by using the SPY, which is the exchange traded fund for the S&P 500. On your screen here, what you see is the charts that I look at. I got about a two year back history here on daily charts. I look at the daily charts because I like to have a more longer term basis. I'm not an intraday trader. I don't trade one minute charts or five minute charts. It's just something that I could never really do. I think the market's just too erratic. I've never really been able to come up with some kind of system or game plan to help me trade one minute charts, five minute charts. It's just too random. So I like to move out to the long-term charts. I have a more longer term approach. I look at months, years, decades into the future. I'm a buy and hold kind of guy. I've got my retirements account. So I have stocks for the long, long run and that's been rewarded for anyone in that type of situation over time. If you hold, you will be rewarded. Short-term trading, it's a tough gig, but if you can do it, more power to you. But anyway, so we look at the longer-term charts in our newsletters at the smart options seller. We sell put spreads, we sell naked put options because we like to take advantage of a market that over the long run goes up over time. So we're more bullish traders and most of our trades last anywhere from two to three months out in time. So a little bit longer timeframe. It helps us weather the erraticness of the short-term moves, the intraday moves, the daily moves. We like to take a little bit of a longer-term outlook. So what do we see here on the chart? I have my daily chart, bar chart, open, high, low, closed bars and down here is the RSI, 14-day RSI. And I only have three moving averages. I got a 20-day, 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages to help me gauge where I think the market is going, what it's doing, what's happening. And we basically just visualize what's on the charts. We check the price action, which is basically which way the stock or market is moving. And we draw these channels. You can see these blue channels, this uptrend here, this little downtrend here. And there's also other patterns. This is a flagpole, a flag pattern. And we look for support and resistance levels. And the RSI down here gives us an idea of whether our stock or index is overbought or oversold, we have the 80 level and the 20 level. And the oscillator moves in between those levels. Most of the time it's around the 50, the mid-range level. So right now the stock market is basically, according to the RSI, not overbought, not oversold. But we look at the price action. So let's kind of see where the market's been and what we can possibly think about next week. As we know, if you've been following the markets, we've been in a downtrend since basically January 1st of 2022. It's been a long six month grueling downtrend. You just eyeball the chart. You can just see the market is going down with fits and starts. You got up moves as well, but we're caught in this overall down move. And it's been tough for a lot of people. We haven't endured this type of a long-term six month downtrend in a long time. And as the statistics, the data show that this is the worst six months to the start of a year in a very long time. I think it's like 50 years or whatever. So as you can see, we can just visualize, we draw some channels here just to see where the market, where the market is kind of trading in, right? So we're in this downtrend. This helps you visualize where we are. Now we can remove this. All patterns can be removed over a period of time. So we'll remove that so we can get a better look. So as you can see, the stock market, the S&P 500 is in this downtrend right now. But we have the snapback rallies that just have been getting sold since January, right? So here's the beginning of the year. We get the down move and it goes up and then it gets hit back down, goes up, down, up. And then this, since basically April, this has been a pretty nasty move these last few months here. So where do we stand now? What can we see? Well, last week when I made the video, we had come back down. So we were down here, all right? And I had said that if the market is going to rally back up, it's probably gonna rally up and touch the downtrending 20-day moving average, which is the blue line right here. So here we were last week. The market had come off the lows, rallied all the way back. This was two weeks ago right here and the last week we came back down again. And this week, what we did was good. We came up, we got above the 20-day moving average. But what we have right here, lurking is the top of the downtrending channel, okay? So we're sort of caught in this channel here. The market's moved up nicely and it's sort of rubbing right up against the downtrending top line of the channel. So the big question is, will the market have enough juice next week to pop outside of the channel and then challenge the next resistance, which is this downtrending 50-day moving average right here. So the market is all about finding these support and resistance zones and then getting through them if they can, if it can, it's the market, it's an it. So I like how it bounced here. I like how it bounced here and it got through the 20-day moving average. Now we have to contend with the downtrending line, which is keeping it in this channel here, all right? So we're gonna see next week. We've got to get out of the channel and possibly intersect with the 50-day moving average. So over the next week, we're looking at the mid, low, 390s, somewhere within the 390 to 400 range on the SPY, which is 3,900 to 4,000 on the S&P index itself. So that's what we're looking for next week. Get through this channel, see what it does to the 50-day moving average. If it can get through both of those, then it's, we've got some momentum here to keep going on the upside. So in our newsletters, which are bullish plays, we sell put options, put options and credit spreads. We've been taking it light over the last few months. Positions have been less frequent, smaller, because we know that the market's caught in this downtrend. And there's no sense of putting your money at risk, bullish money, if you know the market is telling you, it's been going down or it wants to go down. So we don't know yet if this current little rally right here of the last week is gonna get resisted and get knocked back down again. Don't know that yet until we see next week's action. I'd like to see it break through the downtrending channel, get through the 50-day moving average and start moving up. So we can see what might happen. Right here for now, we can maybe draw this little uptrending line. We got this little uptrend that's within the broader downtrend. So we'll see if this uptrend can continue, then maybe we've got the beginnings of the next leg of the move and maybe the second half of 2022 can go up and earnest. So that's where we keep an eye on. Let's look at the NASDAQ and we use the triple cues as our gauge for that. Like the S&P 500, January, we got the downtrend and then starting in April had the really severe downtrend. This has been tough for a lot of people. Here we are down near the bottom. The triple cues came right back up this week, got through the 20-day moving average here and finished. You can see how it just touched right here. This bar right here is yesterday, Friday, July 8th, this one bar. You can see the very top of the bar is the high of the day, okay? So we zoom in here a little bit. I mean, just like magic, it intersected right with this down sloping 50-day moving average. Here is the high of the day. So these moving averages, they really act like magnets sometimes. I mean, because so many people are watching the same thing, so many people are trading the same thing, that they're all watching for the same things to occur, which would be resistance at a moving average level. I mean, it's not a coincidence that we stopped right here at the 50-day moving average. So next week, just like the S&P 500, we wanna see this thing pop through and start moving higher. We have the 200-day moving average up here lurking. So we'll see if we can get that high. We'll see what it does when it connects with this. You know, we have this overall, if you wanna draw a longer-term kind of channel, it's a little messy, but you can see overall, it's caught in this downtrending, and you can always draw these smaller channels as well. I mean, it's in the eye of a holder. It's not black and white. There's no right or wrong way to draw these things. It's just what you see. Someone else who's a, you know, a chartist might be seeing something completely different from what I'm seeing. And so, but this is how I do it, and this is what I'm seeing. We're still caught in the downtrend, and we have the up moves that for now have been getting sold back down. So we don't know if next week, the triple cues will get knocked back down. We don't know yet. You know, we don't really wanna make predictions. We wanna follow the price action and let it tell us what to do. So that's the cues. Let's look at the Dow. We use the diamonds, the DIA. That's the exchange traded fund for the Dow. Now, the Dow had been caught in this longer-term sideways channel. I'm gonna remove this, you know, so it's not so jumbled up. And you can see generally, basically since January, the market's been in the downtrend, just like all the other indexes. And here, the Dow got through the 20-day moving average is good, and here's the 50-day lurking above. So it's all about what's gonna happen when the Dow and the S&P 500 meet upon the 50-day. Now, the Nasdaq already met it. So it'll be interesting to see how we play out next week. But in the longer-term, we're still in this downtrending channel. We really need to see a good month or two of price action that's going upwards and creating a new upwards channel. That'll give us a clue that, okay, the bears are starting to step aside and the bulls are reclaiming some dominance. I don't think we're completely there yet, but this little two-week move up move here, two-three-week up move is constructive. But we don't know, but you could have said that about here. You could have said that about here. And it all still got knocked back down. So you have to be playing with a little bit of caution if you're bullish right now. You don't wanna jump the gun. All right, so that's for the index as we look at some individual charts as well as we do every Saturday. Let's just jump right in. Let's start with Tesla here. I get a lot of comments on Tesla, a lot of requests to go over Tesla. You can see the charts been marked up here. Tesla, the last few weeks as we've been talking, it's hovering right above and below the $700 range or the $700 level. You can see this blue line here. And then below that, this was the other support area. Just, I drew this in the last couple of weeks. So this area right here seems to be from low 600s to high 700s. We can even draw another little line here sort of at the top that it's showing us. This is the current range right here. I know there's a lot of lines on here, but this is what you do. You kinda draw these lines to give you some support and resistance levels. So right now Tesla is caught in this $600 to $800 range. Let's see, so after the close, we're gonna look at Twitter too because there was some activity in Twitter after the market closed yesterday. So once again, Tesla caught in between this 600 to 800 with 700 level being the midpoint here going back to last summer. We probably wanna see it for the bulls. Tesla break out above 800 and then here's the 200 day right here, a little above 900. You wanna see how it reacts to that. So it's all about how the stock or market will react to the moving averages and other support and resistance prior areas, okay? So for right now we're in this range. If Tesla comes back down again and it holds here, then it could be a good spot to possibly jump into bullish positions. You wanna take this channel and use it to your advantage. If it holds at a certain spot, if it holds up here and gets knocked back down, then you know it could be a shorting opportunity, maybe buying some put options. If it comes back down, holds here and bounces or starts to bounce, it could be a good place to buy shares or call options. So use these channels to your advantage. Now, let's look at Twitter real quick because after the market closed yesterday, Friday, July 8th, Elon Musk is telling Twitter that he wants out of the deal, he wants to walk away from buying Twitter because he believes Twitter is withholding information from him about how many bot accounts and how many fake spam accounts Twitter has and Twitter says that they've given him all that information. In my opinion, I just think Musk wants to try to negotiate a better deal, a cheaper deal. I mean, his deal was to buy Twitter for like $54 a share when it popped. This is when he said, I'm buying and then it's fallen since then. So obviously he's having some buyer's remorse. It's like you buy something and all of a sudden it goes on sale and you can't take advantage of the sale. I think that's what Elon Musk is feeling right now. Twitter's just got knocked back down and he doesn't want to pay $54 a share when it's now trading in the mid-36 range. So whether Twitter has given him all that information or not, I think he's trying to play the game of, well, you didn't give me all the information so I'm not buying it at that price now. And after the market closed yesterday, so here it closed at 36.81, news came out after the market closed. So if we go to the after market, look on the one minute chart, you can see. Here's the market closed at 4 p.m. Eastern and then over here, 4 p.m. Eastern and then a little while later Elon Musk said, I'm not buying and you can see how Twitter dropped. Pretty good in just a couple minutes time. Close to 33.5 shares rallied back. So at the end of trading, extended trading at 8 p.m. Eastern last night, Friday, July 8th, Twitter closed around $35. Here's the close of a regular market 36.81. So we'll see where Twitter opens up on Monday morning. Markets open up the pre-market 4 a.m. Eastern time. So if you're, you know, you can't sleep and you're up at 4 a.m. in the morning, take a look, see where Twitter's trading at that time of the day. Anyway, so that's Twitter. I don't, you know, I have no stake, no position. Too much happening. You don't want to get into a stock like that when there's too many, too much headline risk. You know, exterior forces at play here. You don't want to get caught holding something or, you know, if you're short and then it could jump on you, it's too risky in my opinion. So that's Twitter, Tesla. Tesla, let's see if Tesla got affected in that aftermarket. So Tesla closed around $752 a regular market after hours. Oh, so Tesla jumped pretty good. So here we closed at $752. So Tesla jumped a good, you know, $20 a share after that. Closed at $769 at the end of the extended trading hours. So Tesla stock went up, Twitter stock went down. A lot of stuff happens in the aftermarket, especially on these weekly options. You trade weekly options and, you know, you had bought some 755 calls that expired at the end of regular trading hours. You thought the thing expired worthless, but you can hold on to it and call your broker, I think up until 5 p.m. or 5 30 p.m. Eastern. You know, you could have exercised those calls and, you know, made yourself some decent money after the market closes. So be careful if you're trading these weekly options, you know, you have to stick around. So 5 p.m., 5 30 p.m. Eastern, another hour, hour and a half after the regular market closes, see what happens. Stuff like this, you can make a lot of money or you can leave a lot of money on the table. You gotta be aware of how things are trading these days. All right, so let's see what else we got. We look at Apple, Apple. All right, it's done some decent movement. One third hit the low 130 a couple of weeks ago and now closed at 147. It's gotten above this sort of support area here or resistance area depending on how you wanna look at it and has moved above the 20 day and has now moved above the 50 day, which is good. You can see right here, yesterday's trading got above the 50 day moving average. So we've got some momentum, certain stocks have some momentum, that's good. You know, if you wanna draw yourself a visual, you can start strong, you're a little channel here. Okay, so you can, let me redo this one here. You got your little upwards channel that's starting to grow. Wanna see it keep going. So that's Apple, you know, looks good. Got kind of a V shape bounce here, Apple. You know, in the long run, you know, Apple's gonna go up. Just like most of these great stocks will go up. It's just when the bottom will finally occur, as I say to you guys each week, I nibble on the way down. You know, never gonna find the bottom. No one's ever gonna find the bottom. But if you have conviction in the stock, you can nibble on the way down and get yourself some cheaper shares if you have, you know, the capital to do that. Some people wanna wait until they see a bullish move to start in earnest and then they'll start to buy. You know, so no one will ever buy the bottom, but I, you know, buy in bits and pieces. AMD, another favorite. Now there's a lot of lines here that we've been drawing over the last couple months. AMD came down, just nicked the last support line that I drew, which was right in the low 70s. Popped just down here, but then popped back above. The next line we have is this line right here, which is around the $85 level. Wanna see AMD get back above that. But we have this blue 20 day moving average lurking above and this 50 day here. So AMD's got its work cut out for it. You know, I'm a believer in AMD. You got these chip stocks that computers have been, you know, the force in our lives forever and they're just getting more and more important. You gotta have chips, computer chips to run these computers and AMD is a force in that sector. I believe in the long run, it's gonna rally back and move back higher, but for now it's still caught in this downtrend. You can see, just visually you can see the stocks in a downtrend. So going all out bullish is not the smartest thing because it could always get knocked back down. All right, so that's AMD, I'm holding out that it's gonna go up, go up in the long run. Disney same thing for me. You know, I talk about these same companies each week. Disney's still churning below the $100 level, trying to get its act together. Can you go wrong with Disney as a long-term hold? I don't know, some people don't like Disney, I like Disney. Here's the COVID low in March 2020, just below $80 a share. It could come back down, who knows? We've got the still the up sloping 200 month moving averages to the monthly chart. So, you know, this 80 level could be a magnet or maybe Disney will find its footing now and start to rally back up. But you can see how it's hugging along the 20 day moving average here. So Disney's still kind of down in the dumps. I like to see it get back up there. Yeah, another stalwart, Nike. This is Nike clearly, clearly in a downtrend. I mean, there's no question about it. You know, just the recent downtrend right here, you can see the channel here. So Nike still moving down. Can Nike be held down forever? No, don't know when it will finally get the mojo and go back up, but when it does, along with everything else, it's gonna be a great buy from wherever it bounces from. So we got Nike, Disney, AMD, Apple, all these stocks that you know will go up at some point. Let's look at Microsoft. We look at the biggies, we look at the popular stocks, Microsoft, still in this long, you can see this pretty wide, downtrending channel, just how it is. What's good about Microsoft has gotten now above the 50-day moving average, you can see here. It's trading above the 50-day moving average. Next stop would be to connect with the top of the downtrending channel. Over the next few weeks, depending on how fast it moves, it could come anywhere in this range from maybe 270 to 280 in the next few weeks. You can see how if you visualize Microsoft going up, it can connect with the uptrending line or the downtrending upper channel and will it get knocked back down or will it blast through yet to be seen? But we know for the time being, the down move is the dominant direction right now. Intel, which I don't, you know, I'm not interested in Intel, but I keep it on the charts, just made another new low Intel. It's really been getting hit pretty good. I'm gonna remove this old line here. Let's take a look at the monthly, see where Intel, so Intel coming, you know, not too far from the 200-month moving average in the low $30 range, really been coming down. You know, Intel sort of lost its dominance in the chip sector to AMD and Vidia, some of these other chip stocks, but you know, here's a new low it's made of recent, kind of hugging along the 20-day moving average here. So Intel, you know, I stay away. I'm more of an AMD guy. Other stocks, what else do we have? We can look at Amazon. Amazon had their stock split not that long ago, but you can see the support, pretty good support just above $100 a share. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven. Basically, seven attempts here at this $100 level has not been able to get through it yet. So that seems to be a pretty good area of support. Got through the 20-day moving average and just finished above the 50-day moving average the last two days, Thursday and Friday this week. Here's the downsloping 50-day. Can it continue upwards? We sort of see a W pattern forming here a little bit. You can see the W as I draw it out. It would have to get above 130 to really gain the momentum of a W pattern working out. So you use the middle section of the W pattern as that resistance area. So getting above 130, if Amazon could do that, I think that gives it another shot towards the downsloping 200-day moving average. So keep an eye on, that's Amazon. Let's go through our list here and see what else we have. Let's see, got gold and silver in here. I keep commodities on here because I'm a commodities guy as well. Oracle hanging in there. We have a position on Oracle. Putsell that we sold, working for us. Even if the stock goes sideways, selling put options works. Netflix, let's take a look at Netflix. Down hovering on the lows here around, it closed at 100, just under 187. It may have found its support here. This is about 160 or 170-something level, this line right here. So it couldn't get through it yet. And here's the 50-day moving average. So it's kind of hugging on that. It's got the 20-day as well. Looks like Netflix could be getting ready to maybe make that turn and start to go up. But you never know, earnings is just, the last two earnings, we've had these massive, massive gap downs. So I think people are still a little gun shy to go all in on Netflix because the next earnings announcement could drop it down again. So you gotta be careful, but it has come down a long way. Here's the highs near $700 a share, and now still under $200 a share. Netflix in the long run, we gotta go back to the monthly, see where it's been. Look at that, that's just, whew, that's a rough move right there. And it happened pretty quick too. So here's the 200-month moving average right here, lurking about $140 a share. Could that be the next stop? Or did we find support where we are now? So keep an eye on Netflix. Play with caution if you wanna play with it at all. Walmart, talk about Walmart. You know, I'm a believer in Walmart. Bought some down here in the 120 level. Got really oversold and bounced pretty good. So Walmart will find its way back. It may take a little while. Target is a play that we got into just this week as well. What I liked about Target, here's Target, obviously we had a huge gap here, came down, still going slightly lower. But what I liked is that the RSI was sloping upwards. When you have a stock that's just still kind of moving down a little, but the RSI is moving up at the same time, that's what we call bullish divergence. It means the selling is slowing down and the selling may become exhausted and that the bull run may start up again. So we got into a spread, a put spread that we sold on Target. It is a bullish play. So I like to see Target turn the corner and maybe move up. Even sideways actions, sideways action would work for us as well. What else we have? The healthcare stocks, we always talk about those. Eli Lilly and you're the highs. Bristol Myers hanging in there. Pfizer doing okay. Merck, healthcare, you know, it's a great sector to be in for the long run. Healthcare, everyone needs healthcare. It's gonna be around. Verizon still haven't gotten into Verizon yet. Waiting, waiting, waiting. Kellogg doing okay. Oh, PayPal, let's take a look at PayPal and Square as we typically do. Still down at the lows. The payment space hugging this 20 day moving average looks like another potential downlay could occur. Hasn't found the bottom yet. Square, same thing, just gotten crushed. Around $67 like PayPal hugging along the 20 day moving average here. You know, these guys, I don't see a massive rally coming anytime soon yet. You know, earnings, the next round of earnings are gonna be coming up. Starting in late July. So in a few weeks, so we'll get to see what some of these, how these companies did in the last three quarters. Costco still doing okay. We got McDonald's doing all right. Pepsi doing good. Coke, we always talk about Coca-Cola. Long term, upwards trajectory. Let's look at the monthly on Coca-Cola. Just look at that, just great. Here's the COVID and then just regain that and has made all time new highs just very recently. So Coke's in, I'm in for the long run. Great dividend pair, dividend aristocrat. We like Coca-Cola. Let's see what else we got here. Here's Warren Buffett, is Berkshire Hathaway down on the lows. You know, I've talked about this before. I had my report on the website how to take advantage, how to piggyback Warren Buffett with a great option strategy. Check that out on our website if you're interested in that. Talked about Twitter, Facebook, down near the lows. I'm not a big fan. IBM doing okay. Google, don't really mess around with Google too much underneath this support, this now resistance area. What else we got? Chewy I liked. I liked the rounded bottom that Chewy was making. Here was a line in the sand right here. I don't know when I drew this, but it has broken through that. Unfortunately for me, Chewy has not been trading that long. Only started in 2019. I really don't like to get involved with stocks that have not been around for at least five years. But I kept it on the chart. Had made this nice rounded bottom. Here was the resistance line that had popped right through that, that was good for a $10 move. So if anyone was in Chewy, congratulations on that. Let's see what else we have. That's really about it. Clorox, Colgate, yep. All right, so let's quickly go back to the SPY. Wrap it up here. As we said, markets in a downtrend, but possibly we've got a little up move here. Be careful. We've got the upper edge of the downtrending channel and the 50 day moving average lurking. Anything next week, we may get up into the low to mid 390 range on the SPY, keep an eye on that. If it can keep going, then I'm gonna get a little more enthusiastic about this next bull leg. But if it gets knocked back down, be aware it could come down and make new recent lows. All right, so that's it for the Saturday synopsis. Let's quickly go to our website, smartoptionseller.com. We're all about put selling and selling put option credit spreads. That's our gig. That's what we like to do. Go to our website here, smartoptionseller.com. Put selling basics. This is our free ebook to learn about selling put options. Put your name and address in. We'll send you a free copy. In the email that you'll get from us is the link for the ebook. So look for that link within the email that we send you. Here's our services tab. We have our two newsletters and our one-on-one coaching sessions. We've been helping a lot of students get up to speed on how to trade options. All right, that's all for me today. Hope this video is helpful, free video. Give me a thumbs up. Don't forget to subscribe. Hit that red subscribe button in the bottom right hand corner. Leave me a comment, send me an email. I'm here to help, been in the business 30 years and I love answering your questions. All right, that's all for me today. Hope everyone has a great weekend and a great trading week ahead. I will not be around next Saturday. So I'll probably see you maybe the Saturday after that, depending what the schedule. All right, have a great weekend. This is Lee Lowell signing off.