 Okay, we're back, we're live on a given Wednesday morning in global connections, and if there's one person in the universe who is qualified to discuss, best qualified to discuss what's going on in Hong Kong, it's Michael Davis. He taught in the law program at the University of Hong Kong for many years. He followed the action on the streets, particularly in connection with the umbrella movement a few years ago. He's now in Washington at the Woodrow Wilson International Center. He's also at Columbia. He's written for The Washington Post and other journals and newspapers about the subject. And right now, Hong Kong is as hot as it can get. Welcome back to the show, Michael. It's so nice to have you here. Thank you, Jay. I'm always happy to be in Hawaii if only on the video. So, Michael, there's so much material, it's going to be hard to shoehorn this into half an hour, but let me ask you first, what is happening right now in Hong Kong? Well, they've had kind of a series of protests. It's gone back now for several months, and the protests began over this extradition law. What the chief executive of Hong Kong wanted to do was to sneak in a law that would allow Hong Kong to extradite prisoners, people, Hong Kong residents, and international travelers as well, to China to stand trial for whatever charges China had. And this, apparently the chief executive of Hong Kong, Kara Lam, thought she could just sneak it in under the radar. Because they've managed the legislature by blocking opposition figures from the legislature and expelling them, she thought she had the votes and she pushed this law through, which would make Beijing very happy because then it could reach people in Hong Kong. It had a particular passion for years to reach corrupt officials that fled into Hong Kong. Any case the public got wind of that, some of us wrote about it, and it seemed to scare a lot of people in Hong Kong. So in June, we had some protests here, well, not here, I'm in Washington now, but in Hong Kong we had protests, and it was one for a million people and then another week later for two million people. And these were all very peaceful protests. And China, Hong Kong government, neither the Hong Kong government nor China listened to the concerns of people felt that this essentially would destroy the firewall between the legal system of Hong Kong, which has the rule of law, and the legal system of China, which really does not. The party controls everything. Well, wasn't there an agreement back in 1984 calling for the turnover, but the condition of the turnover was continued autonomy. And this extradition law can see how it offends people because it undermines autonomy. It means that they can reach in Hong Kong and take people as they will. Yep, exactly. And so people of Hong Kong are incredible. You'll not find people who are more, as they say in Hawaii, akamai. They really get on top of things and they understand when the system they have of an open society, it's rated one of the freest societies in the world. And the rule of law, which is not the top of the list, but still one of the top ones, is under threat. And they stand up for themselves. And they have done so in this case through a series of protests. Now, they've had protest in the past. This one is quite distinguished because of they as one poster that you see a lot on the streets in Hong Kong these few weeks is that they address Carrie Lam and it says you taught us that peaceful protests do not work. So a lot of the young more aggressive activists have been doing something like they call moving like water that they flow into different districts of the city and the police have to pay catch up all the time trying to catch up with them and the police have become like thugs on the street. Chasing after them, shooting them with rubber bullets, hitting them with gas, wrestling people to the ground. One case they wrestled a young woman so aggressively they pulled off her pants. And so in the past, when things got hairy like this, got very nasty, a lot of times Hong Kong people would not like it and they would stop supporting the protest. But this time because the police have been so nasty, the people are outraged and they have continued to support the protesters. Would you say, Michael, that, you know, this this ramping up of violence in the protest is because the government reacted in the way it did through the peaceful protests? You know, it's interesting how that spirals up. And it's probably an interesting study for any kind of peaceful protest that could lead to violence. Oh, absolutely. And what happens is, you know, I call it Newton's Law when it comes to protest when regimes use repressive tactics, people push back. And this is what's happening in Hong Kong. They they get into a situation where the protesters are shouting slogans and the police may crowd them into a corner somewhere. And then when they're trying to arrest them, they're hitting them with these clubs that the police carry and people are kind of pushing back and it's sort of spirals out of control. There have been some cases where the protesters have misbehaved. No doubt about it. Everyone's angry and the police have likewise engaged in excesses. But that's kind of the way the situation has evolved. And it's where it's at right now. So now there was this morning, there was a satellite image of the Shenzhen Stadium, the soccer stadium, only a few miles from the border, if not closer than that. And it was loaded with the PLA, the People's Liberation Army armored personnel carriers. Is that a commonplace configuration? Is that something special? I guess the Chinese government said, oh, no, we're just having an exercise here. No big thing. But in fact, it's it's pretty threatening, isn't it? Well, it causes concern because the Beijing government has been using very aggressive language. So there are allegations that some of the alleged forces near the border, which Trump has even mentioned, are merely forces that are practicing for celebrations that are coming up later in the year because of the 70th anniversary. So these are sort of the claims that that are made. But at the same time, China has started, first, it labeled the protest riots. And then it started calling them a kind of caller revolution. And you probably saw my op-ed in the Washington Post about that. The interesting thing about that, Michael, is that normally a revolution wants to change what you have to something else. In this case, it's not a revolution. You mentioned this in your article. It's not a revolution to change what you have to something else. It's a matter of preserving what you have. Exactly. And that's that's that's the key distinction here. Anyhow, so after calling it a caller revolution and getting pushed back on that, now they've alleged that there's terrorism in Hong Kong. So they keep increasing the language and they keep offering threats that the situation is very dangerous and that people should be careful and so on and so forth. And of course, the United States with President Trump has been no help at all because he talks about everybody calming down, including the Chinese. They sort of very friendly to Xi Jinping on this. He was praising Xi Jinping a while back for showing restraint. And he started labeling the Hong Kong protest riots. So in a way, while while the protesters are counting on democracies abroad to oversee this and the U.N. Human Rights Council has mentioned the members of the council. I think the head of it has mentioned that the police have misbehaved. Of course, our president of the United States is failing to understand this. So tragic because of this policy of disengagement, it seems to be ubiquitous for him and he has pulled back any kind of moral leadership the United States may have had. And I think this will be remembered what is happening in Hong Kong and what is not happening in Washington to address what is happening in Hong Kong will be remembered for many years and it will color the United States as a disengaged, unengaged and no longer a moral leader. Right. Well, there's been an effort to try to at least bring attention to this in Congress because there's a bill that's bipartisan bill called the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. And actually, I've written a letter encouraging the Congress to move on that. And we've gotten the signature of about 200 leading thinkers on human rights and China's relationship to sign this letter. So we're trying to urge the Congress to move on it because what the bill does is it gives the US some tools to respond. Right now, we have a so-called Hong Kong Policy Act, but that one either allows the US to say we're no longer going to treat Hong Kong especially or simply to report every year as the US does. The State Department does on what's happening. This bill before Congress would create more tools where people where the US could, for example, identify people in Hong Kong who are violating the commitments under the sign of British Treaty on the Basic Law. It could also allow Hong Kongers who are arrested and put in prison for demonstrating to still have the right to go to the US and get a visa, where usually when you have a criminal record, you cannot. So there's a number of things in the bill that try to create tools between all or nothing. Yeah, well, but, you know, let me offer the thought that it may not be in time. I mean, it does happen because this is a powder keg at Tenderbox right now and with those almond personnel carriers and the riots in the street and the airport, the all of Hong Kong is essentially shut down, even if they do, even if they have resumed flights. It seems to me that the economy is shut down. What is tragic about this is that the autonomy that Hong Kong enjoyed was beneficial for both Hong Kong and China and for the world. And it was a really important part of the identity of Hong Kong have its own democracy. Now that is being threatened. And the question I put to you is, what is what is the short term here? What is going to happen in the next? This is a hard one. It's going to happen the next few days. Well, we don't know. China, as I've written and many others have as well, it would be a very tragic mistake for China to send the military into Hong Kong. There's all kinds of problems associated with that. It's it's, you know, if they do that, they undermine the whole concept of Hong Kong as an autonomous region. And so governments around the world are certainly going to be very concerned about it. You're going to have the optics of Chinese soldiers running around with guns and one of the world's great financial centers, probably the number two financial center in the world behind New York. And then there's going to be problems for commerce and trade, both going both directions into China and out, going into China. A lot of companies and I've already been asked by people who do political risk analysis, what American companies might do. But going in, they use Hong Kong as a base because of Hong Kong's reputation for the rule of law and an open society where people can live normally. And so that that in inbound investment will be affected. But more probably more important is Chinese companies use Hong Kong as their base so that they can go act globally. And they register their stock on the Hong Kong stock exchange because that stock exchange has a good reputation. And so all of this value that China gets, people comment, oh, well, Hong Kong used to be a quarter of China's GDP. Now it's only 3 percent. But trust me, that 3 percent is really important. That's the the financial center side of it. Hong Kong is not a manufacturing base anymore, but it is a financial center. So just like New York, maybe not that greater percent of the US GDP. It is a critical vehicle for for managing that GDP. And so the loss of Hong Kong would be a tragic thing for China. And of course, a disaster for Hong Kong. If people no longer trust the autonomy of Hong Kong, then they would be looking for other cities in Asia as vehicles for business. Why are we over the Rubicon to some extent already on that, Michael? In other words, the stability we had enjoyed. We had appreciated in Hong Kong. It's not stable and there are threats made and characterizations made that are very threatening and possibilities lining up that that are draconian. So my question is, aren't we already in a place where Hong Kong as a world trade center is jeopardized? Well, we certainly are in a bad place. And there have been rumors around town that some of the big companies want to go set up elsewhere. I think because of the value of Hong Kong, if this problem can be brought to an end, it's kind of like the SARS crisis in the past. That damaged Hong Kong a great deal. But after a while, everything sort of bounced back. And and I think there's a hope that that could be the case if the Chinese officials could get it right. And I think this this is the challenge because Carrie Lam is the governor of Hong Kong, chief executive, they call her. And she's just dug in her heels and doesn't seem to be interested in addressing any of the concerns that some people think that she's just an instrument of Beijing. Is that true? Exactly. And her her appointment is done by Beijing. That's why people in Hong Kong want democracy and democracy is promised in this in the basic law of Hong Kong. Universal suffrage was promised. And of course, that was the big debate five years ago in 2014. And Beijing really offered nothing. They wanted to offer a vetted election where they could determine who the candidates were and then people would be allowed to vote. So kind of like Iran. So that you and I had that conversation a long time ago. But at this stage, Carrie Lam, you know, usually in Hong Kong, when the public speaks in such a forceful way, we've seen the Hong Kong government back down. I know when I was in the Article 23 Concern Group years ago, we mobilized a half a million protesters against these national security laws and the laws were withdrawn. And then later, a few years later, about a decade later when students were protesting against the so-called patriotic education, those proposals were withdrawn. But when so when the Hong Kong government's calling the shots alone, usually it'll back down in the face of public opposition. It's never back down when there's issue of democratic reform. Why? Because Beijing's calling the shots. Yeah. So that's sort of the way it goes. Now, in this instance, it's not backing down. So as you suggested in your question, it looks like Beijing is calling the shots here again. Well, that leads me to a very interesting question, which I wanted to inquire with you as a last point of inquiry here in our show. And it's got some real meat on it and hopefully some possibility. And that is the settlement of this matter, the settlement of this matter between the forces called the forces, the protest forces in Hong Kong, the people of Hong Kong and the Beijing leadership. And it seems to me from what you were saying that Carrie Lam is really not a party to those settlement discussions. Or if she is a party, we all recognize that she is that she is the instrument of Beijing and it would be unfair to have her and Beijing at the table. So who negotiates the settlement here? Is that possible? Are there, you know, are there definable groups that can speak to each other? Let me let me add a second question on that. And that is assuming there is a table and their representatives of both sides of this at the table. What what will be the conversation? Is this something that can be settled? And if so, on what terms do you think it might be settled? Well, I think it can be settled. I think you pointed out a problem. They call this a leader, leaderless protest. And leaderlessness is something that is purposefully pursued because in the previous demonstration in 2014, the leaders of that protest were all jail. In fact, the two most prominent ones, two professors are now in jail still from that protest for a 16 month sentences. And so that's why now they try to hide who's leading. And it's probably a diverse sorts of leadership. But I think what probably has to happen is these protesters have made clear their demands. And I think what we would be looking for is for the government to give in to some of these demands. And some of them I think are very easy to give in to, for example, one of the demands is that they withdraw, formally withdraw the bill. Well, they've already suspended it. So withdrawing it, which the protesters want because they don't trust that a suspended bill still lingers on the legislative docket. So they want it formally withdrawn. And if the government, Kerry Lam has already said, the bill's dead, I don't have to withdraw it. OK, fine, then withdraw it. You know, that's no big deal. The second big demand I think they have is because of all this violence and excesses of the police, they want an independent investigation. And here again, even the pro Beijing, the pro establishment camp, various things like the General Chamber of Commerce, all of them have said, we also want the bill withdrawn and we want an independent investigation. So Kerry Lam, that's why it seems counterintuitive that she's dug in her heels, even against her own supporters. And so that's why we think Beijing is calling the shots. So Beijing doesn't want to be seen to back back down. But I think the cost to Beijing of not backing down, of taking more aggressive means, including military intrusion, would be much higher than simply finding a way to allow Kerry Lam to say, OK, we'll do these two things. Now, the third demand would be to with with, you know, to drop the charges of rioting, which could be a 10 year sentence against the people that have been arrested for rioting, at last, I heard 44 people. And it seemed that that would flow rather easily from an independent investigation if they found out that the police had misbehaved in these so-called instances of rioting. So so there there's an easy go at it. Probably the hardest demand to meet for Beijing would be to reopen democratic reform discussions. But I think that's something that could be done if they did all the rest and they indicated some kind of schedule to resume these kinds of discussions. Again, I think the protesters, at least the wind would be taken out of their sails. Yeah. Now, they wanted to get rid of Kerry Lam, right? That was one of the demands of the protesters. They wanted her out of there. Any chance of that? Well, you know, that that's one of the five so-called five demands. But I think that's going to happen anyhow. What's happened in the past, and it was really over the article twenty three business fifteen years ago, is that where the chief executive at the time mishandled that so badly as has Kerry Lam, that Beijing just bided its time, waited a year and then asked him to resign. So they have a way of they don't want to be seen to give in absolutely. And I think the protesters could live with that because they're not stupid. They know if she was dismissed, Beijing would just appoint another hardliner in her place. Yeah. So so that one, I think, is not a hard one. So I think there's a way out of it. And I think the public right now we know that from opinion polls that 79 percent of the people support withdrawing the legislation and having an independent investigation. If both of those things were done, I think there would be room for the protesters to back down because their support for aggressive demonstrations and so on would probably diminish. Well, let's assume let's assume there is a resolution and it's a peaceful resolution and it's reasonable, you know, reasonable people will somehow agree. Let's assume that I know it's not a certainty, but let's assume that you know, this whole event on top of the umbrella movement a few years ago, you know, is problematic because it demonstrates the the abiding patience of Beijing and Beijing's ultimate desire, ultimate plan to bring Hong Kong within, you know, within China in every way. You and I have spoken about this issue before. They're not going to forget their plan. And so, you know, I guess we can assume they're going to they're going to try something again later. And my question to you is this particular protest, this particular series of events over the past month, how does that affect the execution of that plan going forward? Does it help Beijing or not? Yeah, well, I think Beijing has been doing this, you know, drip by drip for several years now. So why this extradition bill could get so much support in terms of dropping it or withdrawing it and why people don't trust merely suspending it is because the government's lost trust of the people because there's been a whole series of things where they try to punish protesters severely, the ones I mentioned that are now in jail. So they've done things like that. They kicked members of the legislative council out of the legislature for giving oaths that the government didn't like. They banned other people from running for office for allegedly advocating independence when all they really said was Hong Kong should have a right of self determination. So there's all these kinds of a whole series of things that have happened. And this is going to continue. I mean, Beijing, it's kind of in their DNA. They want to control things. Quite frankly, I think if they let Hong Kong rule Hong Kong as they promised, they probably would have much less conflict. So their desire to have stability in order is undermined by their own behavior. In my view, the government and Beijing own these demonstrations. It's their something they've caused by their behavior. And they claim the rule of law is threatened by public demonstrations. But I think the rule of law is threatened by this kind of behavior we've seen from the government of exercising discretion in any way they want to serve their own interests. And Hong Kong people have been fed up with it and they're they're pushing back. Yeah, you know, I'm not that you or I would ever want to be the face of the protesters, because that would be very dangerous business. But, you know, here, my last question to Michael is if you had the opportunity to give advice to the protesters, tell them what their best course of action is at this point in time with consideration of all the things we've discussed. What would that advice be? Well, I've given it actually. I know a lot of the people involved in protests in Hong Kong, as you can imagine. And I think the thing that has been a problem in these demonstrations is the kind of very specific disciplines to maintain a nonviolent strategy have been hard to maintain. And I would encourage those people who have more influence to stress these things. I think they should even give exercises where they train protest leaders and nonviolent strategies, because all it takes are a few incidences in the Beijing and the Hong Kong government then use that against them, just like the other night in the airport. They grabbed some guy who they thought was a you know, a stooge of the Public Security Bureau on the mainland and were holding him and they they were in some abuse occurred. That kind of thing should not happen. They then apologized and they were passing out little pamphlets of apology the next day. But they have to have a certain level of discipline. I think that's very important. And otherwise, you know, they're just going to have to do what they can to win the hearts and minds of Hong Kong people. Don't be guilty of the kinds of abuse that they see from the other side. All right, Michael Davis, Woodrow Wilson Institute at Columbia University as well. So experienced and so in tune with what's going on in Hong Kong. Thank you so much for joining us. I hope we can do this again. Very good, Jay. I'll be happy to thank you. Aloha.