 Thank you, Lee, and good morning to our Outlook delegates. Over the past few years, ABS has undertaken research into the prospects for global food demand to 2050, especially in the fast-growing Asian markets. Food demand in Asia is expected to increase because of a larger population, growth in perperson incomes, and increasing urbanizations, especially in countries such as China, India, and Southeast Asia. Where significant market opportunities exist in Asia, there will be strong competition for Australian agricultural exports from other exporters, in addition to expected higher domestic production in many Asian countries. To take up the opportunities presented by food demand growth in Asia, it will be important for Australian agriculture to maintain its international competitiveness and increase productivity growth. It will be important to maintain the green and clean image of Australian agricultural exports and to produce high-quality agricultural products to sell into the Asian markets. On the trade negotiations front, the recent signing of free trade agreements with the Republic of Korea, Japan, and China will improve access to these markets for many Australian agricultural exports. Further benefits to Australian agricultural exports can be expected once the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement is enforced. Where these recently signed trade agreements pay for solid foundation for Australian agriculture to take the opportunities presented by global food demand growth. Development in other agricultural exporting countries and their policies could also have a significant impact on export performance of Australian agriculture. So what are the possible changes to the international operating environment which could have a significant impact on Australian agriculture in the foreseeable future? To answer this question, we first have a look at the factors that have contributed to export growth in Australian agriculture. Using the Australian beef industry as an example, ABS Research indicates that increased market assets for Australian beef was a major contributing factor to the increase in Australian beef exports over the past decade or so. The increased market assets for Australian beef exports has come from reducing import tariffs or trade barriers in some export markets. And because of disease issues in major competing or importing countries such as the discoveries of Macau disease in the United States and Japan in the early 2000s. Australian beef exports in shipped weight reached over 1.3 million tons in 2014. This compares with below 1 million tons in the year 2000, a rise of 40% over this period. We estimate that over 85% of the increase in Australian beef exports between 2000 and 2014 was attributable to increased market assets. You should also be noted that the Australian dollar over this period appreciated by 55% against the US dollar. An appreciating Australian exchange rate adds to the challenge in improving market assets. Of course now we have a much lower Australian dollar against the US dollar and it seems the lower Australian dollar is likely to stay at least in the next few years. Slightly over 10% of the increase in beef exports was due to income growth in our beef export markets leading to higher demand. Now let us take a look at the growth in another major beef exporter, Brazil over this period. Brazil's beef exports were over 1.2 million tons in 2014, an increase of around 1 million tons from its beef exports in 2000. Between 2000 and 2014 it is estimated that close to 40% of the growth in Brazil's beef exports was attributable to reduced supply costs in Brazil compared with its major competitors on world market. This has resulted in a significant increase in the competitiveness of Brazil's beef exports. The reduction in Brazil's beef supply cost many reflected productivity growth in Brazil's beef industry and improved efficiency in its supply chains. Around another 50% of the growth in Brazil's beef exports was attributable to improved market assets especially to the Russian region, the Middle East and some Asian countries. In contrast to the case of Australia Brazil's currency the real depreciated by 22% against the US dollars in this period. Now what about the future? With support from the newly signed free to agreements we forecast that the real value of Australian beef exports will increase by a further 25% by 2030 assuming no major changes to the international operating environment. However, there are downside risks to this outlook. A major downside risk stems from a possible increase in international competition especially for Latin America. An important question is that what would be the impact on Australian beef exports if the Latin American countries were to again improve assets in markets in China and Southeast Asia or even in the United States and North Asia including Japan and Korea. Latin American countries have been expanding their assets to international markets in recent years. Beef from Uruguay now competes with Australian beef in China, the United States and Korea. China's beef imports from Uruguay reached 123,000 times in 2015. This compares with China's beef imports from Australia of 156,000 tons in the same period. In May 2015 China left a ban on beef imports from Brazil in the December quarter 2015 Brazil exported over 41,000 tons of beef to China. This compares with Australia's beef exports to China in the same quarter of under 42,000 tons. Argentina has also emerged as a supplier of beef to China with imports of 43,000 tons in 2015. Success in these markets is expected to encourage the Latin American countries to seek further improvement in international market assets. Now if the Latin American countries were to further improve their beef supply costs and their assets to markets in China and Southeast Asia, AB estimates that Australian beef exports to these markets could be adversely affected by a wrong US $340 million by 2030 than would otherwise be the case. This estimate is in 2014 US dollars. Under this scenario Australian beef exports to China would be close to 30% lower than would otherwise be the case by 2030. Of course with increased competition for Latin American beef in China and Southeast Asia, Australian beef exports could be diverted to other world markets. Even if Australian beef exports are successfully diverted to other destinations, total Australian beef exports will still be lower than would otherwise be the case by 2030. Specifically the strongest competition will come from beef exports from Brazil. Over the past two decades, beef production in Brazil has increased by more than 50% to around 10 million tons a year in carcass weight and has benefit from abundant grazing land and relatively low labor costs. We also simulated the effects on Australian beef exports in another scenario in which the Latin American countries are assumed to gain or improve assets to markets in the United States, Japan and Korea. Under this scenario Australian beef exports to the US and Southeast Asia are projected to be significantly lower than would otherwise be the case by 2030. Under the assumption that Australian beef exports are successfully diverted to other destinations, the total value of Australian beef exports will still be over half a billion lower by 2030 in 2014 US dollars. To meet the challenge of increased competition in international markets it will be important for Australian agriculture to maintain its competitiveness by improving productivity growth and infrastructure support. Given the theme of this conference is investing in agriculture we also simulated the effects on Australian beef exports of increased infrastructure support to reduce beef supply costs in Australia. Under the assumption that improved infrastructure will lead to a reduction of around 5% in beef supply costs in Australia from the model baseline by 2030, Australian beef exports are projected to be around 200 million higher in 2014 US dollars by 2030 than would otherwise be the case. In addition to infrastructure improvement, reductions in government regulations and growth in on farm or off farm productivity in the beef supply chains will also lead to lower beef supply costs. Now for grants and oil seats they have also been international developments that have important implications for the Australian industry. In late December 2015 the newly-elect government in Argentina announced the removal of export taxes on wheat, maize, and other commodities. The tax on soybeans was lowered from 35 to 30% and will be reduced annually from now on. The Argentine government also abolished the foreign exchange control in late December leading to a depreciation of its currency by over 25%. These reforms are expected to result in increased farm sector returns, higher agricultural production, and exports in Argentina in the years to come. This slide presents some projections from the private sector in Argentina of agricultural production by 2020. With plenty for supplies of grants and oil seats currently on world markets, a significant increase in exports from Argentina has the potential to place significant downward pressure on world prices. Now let me present you with a few take-home messages. First, projected growth in Asian food demand presents market opportunities for Australian agricultural exports but international competition will be strong. Specifically, there have been international developments which have the potential to impact on Australian agricultural exports. In the presentation, I have outlined the possible implication of recent developments in Latin America for Australian beef, grains, and oil seats. Other examples include the potential for growth in grants production in the Black Sea region, an issue well recognized by the industry. In order to meet these challenges, it will be important for Australian agriculture to maintain its green and clean status and continue to improve productivity growth and infrastructure support with increased investment. Second, well the recently signed free-to-agreements are providing support for agricultural exports. Some Australian agricultural products are still subject to quotas and import tariffs in markets in Asia and other parts of the world. ABS research indicates that improve the market assets has been an important factor contributing to growth in Australian agriculture. Therefore, it will be important to continue working to reduce trade barriers on world markets for Australian agricultural exports. This concludes my presentation. Thank you very much.