 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire comm where today We are previewing week number 10 in the NFL breaking down Ed's numbers and what they say about a pretty fun slate of games My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang you can find his work over at thepowerrank.com Ed. I am excited because this week has a couple of big divisional matchups Last week. I thought we get the same thing and then Drew Brees and the Saints kind of just dropped the hammer on the buck So how you doing today? I'm doing pretty good because I mean I did like New Orleans when we talked last week so You know it was it was a game that I meant to watch some of but it got out of hand so quickly that Yeah, there wasn't there really wasn't much left and the New Orleans defense that has kind of struggled all year Was was able to hold down a Tampa Bay offense that you know My numbers don't particularly like but I know they've struggled with injuries a little bit as well and then New Orleans is offense doing what what they can do against a very good defense. Yeah, and I I was in the same boat where I was excited to watch that game and then Usually I have a tough time because we have a recap podcast very Monday Monday morning for daily fantasy stuff And I have a tough time because like I'm trying to work on that But then I get distracted by Sunday night football I didn't have to get distracted because the game was a blowout It's honestly like it was great for me to have the game go the way it did I was happy for your numbers like in the Saints there as well So it was I was okay with it I would hope though that we see some more competitive games on Sunday because I love The match up between the Rams and the Seahawks. I think that's phenomenal I kind of don't hate the Giants Eagles game just because like In week seven when they played My wife was trying to have a zoom call with her parents And I just kept cackling on the couch next year because like Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones Just kept playing a hero ball and like it was it was one of the most enjoyable football games ever seen Because it was so bad. So like I want to watch part two, baby Yeah, kind of like watching a train wreck, right? Yeah. Yeah, we'll see we'll talk about that a little bit later But I think I think it'll be interesting. Yeah, so what we're gonna do today is we're gonna go through Ed's numbers on these games See what they say about them and it should be a fun discussion We'll do that here in just a bit but first if you're looking for some college football action We talked with Mike Craig yesterday. He's a professional sports better talked about college football got his insights on Which markets he likes most why he decides to go into certain markets and go away from them and just get his thoughts on It's a big week 11 games and Ed I mean it was a really fun conversation with Mike. So I appreciate you lining that up Yeah, absolutely Mike is Intelligent guy and it's always good to talk sports betting with him Yes, if you want to find that interview with Mike Craig just search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are an Apple podcast Spotify Stitcher the Google Play Store I heart radio radio Dot-com no matter where you find your podcast you can find us and while you're there leave us a rating and review as well Before we dive into week number 10 though We got to look back at last week in addition to the buck saints game had a lot of other goodness from Peter Jennings of Fantasy Labs, so let's see what we had there first Covering the past Last week here on covering the spread we had Peter Jennings on to preview week 9 in the NFL Find Peter on Twitter at CSU ram 88 make sure you check out his work over at fantasy labs in the action network Peter was on the under for Ravens Colts at 46 and a half and actually closed at 48 So it moved the wrong way, but didn't matter It went under pretty easily with the Colts offense not being able to move the ball So good call by Peter there also good call for him in the bills and versus the Seahawks where Peter had faith in the Bills plus 3 against Seattle, and that's where I closed to But that faith was well founded the bills jumped out to an early lead able to hold it throughout to win by 10 So another win by Peter there You have had faith in the Texans this year and Peter did to in week 9 the markets it as well He had it at 6 it closed at 7 so it was a good price But the Jaguars actually pretty frisky with Jake Luton a quarterback the Texans won But the Jaguars covered and had like I joke about this about Jake Luton being an upgrade over Gardner Minshew But like I don't think it's the most outrageous thing in the world if it wound up being true Yeah I mean we're talking about a one-game sample size the thing that I'm horrified is just the complete inadequacy of Houston's defense I mean they're letting this kid Luton just spin away from them and waltz into the end zone to get a potential tying score I mean it was kind of You know, I mean Deshaun Watson is great. He's gonna put up points He's gonna do things that Deshaun Watson does but to pair that with the defense that Leaves a lot to be desired is is pretty tough. Yeah, I mean like the Texans are fun And we were talking yesterday with Mike about how there are a lot of under teams You know under programs under teams, etc The Texans are an over team because that offense can go silly that defense can go silly in the wrong way I know it's a lot of fun games for sure Peter was in on the Panthers as big underdogs against the cheese at 10 and a half And it closed at 10 and actually I think it was like 12 at one point close to 10 though And the Panthers covered pretty easily. They actually had a chance to win that game outright So a good bet from Peter there being on the Panthers Peter wanted the Bears plus six and a half against the Titans It did close at six, which is good and the Bears They came out really flat They did make a valiant effort to try to get the backdoor cover brought it down to a touchdown, but they couldn't quite get there So a close one, but not quite there and finally Peter had the Broncos plus four against the Falcons It's another one where he almost got the cover late because the Broncos scored 21 points in the fourth quarter to make it close So the Falcons did cover Drew Locke for whatever reason the first three quarters is just hideous the fourth quarter He's Patrick Mahomes. I don't get it Prefer if he'd be fourth quarter Drew Locke for all four quarters, but you know, whatever So some good bets from Peter there finding a lot of value being looking for the best price of fangirl sportsbook So again, make sure you are acting like Peter looking for the best odds and seeing what numbers you can get that are enticing at fangirl sportsbook One of the ones that he wanted that you talked him out of was actually that buck saints game because Peter was Tented by the Bucks minus four and you said I don't know man I kind of like the Saints plus four and it closed at three So the market was in your favor and the Saints blasted them So it's beneficial you talked Peter out of that but also just another again a good performance there by your numbers liking the Saints Yeah, no, I was definitely pleased with that. I mean it's kind of gone against Tampa Bay a number of times and that hasn't always worked out So it was nice to to get one there and it's interesting how it kind of shakes up our Like our vision of the NFC by Kevin Cole a PFF on my podcast this week And I always asked guests to make a bold prediction for the rest of the season And he was saying that I was gonna say that New Orleans was gonna win the NFC and go to the Super Bowl And then it doesn't seem that bold after after that set of games So, you know, we're always updating we're always updating our Analysis of these teams and yeah, we'll continue to do that. I got a you know, I think that if You are akin to a guy like Drogen sick whale capper and you kind of look at the schedule and see when these Inflection points may be maybe you're able to get in the Saints before that game If you like the Saints in that game if you like them to bet for some conference outright and stuff but the NFC is a Really interesting conference because I don't think there really is a definitive favorite right now So we'll see how things shake out there a final one here for last week was I had the over on Raiders versus chargers a 52 and a half It actually went down to 51 and a half and then shot back up to 53 right before kickoff And it did go over 57 points. That was good Not a an easy cover by any means, but hey, you know wins a win and with the way the past couple weeks have gone for me I will take whatever I can get getting the over there with the Raiders and the chargers pretty fun game The raiders are what's that couldn't have been some more points like that I thought I like the chargers drop some touchdown passes and they don't touch down pass with no time on the board So it would have been a comfortable cover then like they covered I think we like nine minutes left or they got the over with nine minutes left So like it could have been comfortable, but like these things happen. So like I'm again. I'm not complaining I'll take 57. I'll take the over for sure could have been maybe a little bit more But yeah, I think that I think the process was there. I think that the results were there, too So a wins a win. I'll happily take it. Yeah, Justin Herbert is now 0 and 6 in one score games Is it possible like Like I know we joke about the chargers Being cursed. Is it possible? That's no longer a joke. Are they just actually cursed? I mean, I don't really believe in being cursed in terms of analyzing football teams But you know, maybe you should add maybe that maybe that you need to adjust for that in the power ranks numbers Like yeah, this team cursed. Are they are they the Falcons or the chargers? If yes, you got to adjust things there Yeah, maybe Michigan is cursed in terms of big plays because they always underperform their success rate numbers No, I mean, there's a lot of randomness and just you know, yeah, I don't know I'll take it though. I'll take it. That's all that matters and we had a good week last week So we'll celebrate that and hope we can duplicate it once again in week number 10 Before we get there though betting on the NFL is great Betting on the NFL risk-free is even better Fandal sportsbook is giving you a chance to bet on week 10 of the NFL risk-free with their exclusive same game parlades Simply place a three leg or more parlay on any NFL week 10 game to be eligible If you don't win your bet Fandal will refund your bet up to $10 in site credit What do you have to lose? Must be 21 plus and present in Colorado, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, or Tennessee Refundition is a non-drawable site credit that expires in seven days max refund $10 terms apply gambling problem in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, or Illinois call 1-800 gambling in Iowa call 1-800 bets off in Colorado call 1-800-5-2-2-4-7-100 in Indiana call 1-800-9 with it or in Tennessee Call the Tennessee red line 1-800-889-9-7-8-9 Let's take a look at week number 10 now dive into Ed's numbers and see what they say about this week's big divisional games Covering the present So two big divisional games coming up here in week number 10 Eagles at the Giants We had the Seahawks at the Rams also talk bills at the Cardinals, but before we do that I do want to go through some overall stuff because Ed we had the chance last week talk about your college football numbers And how you to tweak your model for this year because there were no non-conference games now Obviously, it's not an issue in the NFL So did you make any tweaks on the NFL side of things entering the season to adjust for the coronavirus or Did you were able to keep things pretty straightforward from last year? No, I kept things pretty straightforward from last year because the schedule is basically the same all the data I needed in terms of the markets during the preseason were there. That was not the case for college football so yeah, I mean I roughly kept everything the same and You know, I mean the key ingredients are properly waiting of kind of a preseason component component that looks at closing point spreads from from past games my market rankings and then Data from the current season so points success rate yards for past attempt So give those a proper rating and we'll talk about some of those and specifically in some of these games But yeah, you know, it's actually been a really good year at this point. We were through nine weeks the way I I mean obviously how you perform ATS is one metric of How well your model is working I find that to be pretty noisy and jump jumpy from from kind of week to week season to season So what I really try to look at is is the root mean squared error So like if I make a prediction That the Eagles are gonna win by three points and they win by ten points then the difference between that is seven and then you square that for 49 and you would add up all those errors before taking a square root, so that's just your root mean squared error and Right now after week nine like my my predictions have actually had a smaller root mean squared error than the closing line From the market, so I scraped on breast. I take the median line and compare those so Usually it's pretty close usually it's within about 1% or at least it has been in past seasons right now We're at a point where it's just just to take better. So I've been pretty confident with how the numbers have been working and Yeah, hope hope to continue. Do you have any ideas to why things may be performing so well this year? I mean obviously like, you know Maybe they're just good numbers, but like if it's the same method you've been using in the past Do you have a thought process as to what may have led to the numbers performing that way this year? So I saw I saw a significant Kind of decrease in the air when I started adding this success rate stuff And I'm still not sure if it's completely optimal how I'm doing it, but I definitely saw a leap there I don't know why it's doing better this year. Remember, there's still gonna be some randomness in just you know 133 games that that we're looking at so far But one thing like you know take a team like Tampa Bay, you know, I was almost I mean there's There's a lot of thing in my success There's a lot of aspects of my success rate numbers that I don't Say yeah necessarily on the podcast because they don't necessarily make sense And I'm not gonna offer the ones from this season quite yet But one of the ones from last season was Tampa Bay's defense was the best in the the NFL in terms of success rate I don't think I ever mentioned that because it seemed kind of dumb I think you did in the offseason actually when Brady signed there. I think you may have mentioned it Thanks. I remember hearing that. I don't know if I heard it like I don't know when I heard it But I'm pretty sure I heard you mentioned that at some point So table-based defense wasn't that great last year and that's because the offense just kept turning the ball over I think 41 times so It's it's kind of one of those situations where the Success rates stuff is saying one thing and this defense could be good But it doesn't really show up necessarily in your numbers and your predictions because of other factors such as turnovers So maybe it's more of a thing where the turnovers aren't skewing things quite so much You know Philadelphia has terrible success rate numbers and they're terrible the turnover department too so they go hand in hand I don't know we'll see how things kind of progress forward but but I've been really happy with the model this year and Will work and the offseason make it even better for next year. Absolutely and hopefully this offseason will be less chaotic So we can have more time to do that rather than you know worrying about whether there will be a season and trying to scramble Once it becomes more clear than it is early in the season we saw a Lot of totals going over like crazy and you would say that your numbers, you know, I mean like in general It's a hard it's hard to keep up when there are major deviations We're looking at historic data, etc. Etc. But now we've got nine weeks in the books Have things stabilized a bit more or if you had to do more tweaking when it comes to trying to pin these totals Yeah, I mean in terms of my model like I don't I don't really look at my totals model for NFL Like I warn all my members. I don't advertise it when you look to become a member because I know it's not good It's the same thing. I do it in college and what works in college just doesn't work as well in the NFL And I have years of I need to work on it at some point and hopefully get to that in the offseason But but what happens is that the markets have really been behind the scoring output this season in the NFL so I mean just week nine teams averaged almost 53 points per game and and The year-long average has been almost 51 points But the market average total game was just a shade under 49 And we've seen this like the the markets have just been a little bit below and that past data is kind of what I use In my totals model. So there's there's one half of my totals model. That's kind of pulling the total down In a way that we know is a little bit too much probably I mean, you know, you can you can argue that we expect regression But you know as we'll talk about in one of the games a little bit later Like I actually think one of the reasons there's so many points is that there are so many quarterbacks Corner corner backs that are hurt. Yeah, they're not a lot of quarterbacks. They're there's less quarterbacks that are hurt I think that makes a huge difference, you know cornerbacks are they're they're not in They're in high demand, but there's not a huge supply of them that can do it at the NFL level I think that's part of it. So Yeah, when we go in with totals, I think I'm using more other types of information When I look to I'm less looking at my model for that. Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense and For me at least it's always kind of Anecdotal when it comes to totals as well just because like I need to like Look for changes and things try to find those edges and we'll talk about that in my cover in the future, too Because there is a game here that's pretty interesting and it may or may not be Eagles add giants Let's start things off there with our game-by-game break downs the Eagles here three and a half point favorites a total 44 and a half over at fan dual sportsbook and Another nice thing for you before the season you talked about Carson Wentz and he how he should be throwing more picks than he has That obviously has happened. He's actually thrown a ton of picks But as a result of that we've seen sentiment swing really heavily against them And I think that that's always an interesting situation where you are ahead of a swing Do you buy back then when things go drastically the other way? So are you thinking we have a window here to buy into the Eagles or should we expect the struggles here to continue? Not necessarily in this game. I don't know if I would I don't have a really a strong opinion on this game And we'll get to that at the end Carson Wentz You know thanks for mentioning that his his pick rate I think was in the 5% was over 5% at some point and I argued that it should regress from there and and You know back to more towards the NFL average of 2.4 2.5 percent so his bad ball numbers which I found to be very predictive of Future interception rate his bad ball numbers are basically the average they weren't spectacular like his pick rate So so we expect you to get closer to 2.4 2.5 percent and for the season. He's at 3.9 percent. So Starting at 5 percent. He's had to get a little bit better doing that Overall, you know, this unit isn't good I think Wentz hasn't been good his accuracy hasn't been good and then he's dealing with a lot of injuries at The receiver positions accuracy is out as well So when I look at a justice success rate on passing plays, they're 29th and that's pretty bad But on the other side of the ball, you have the New York Giants and this team is kind of built exactly the wrong way They're excelling in the ground game. So when I look at my justice success rate, they're fifth on offense and they're fourth on defense But when you look at the past game, they're terrible 25th on offense with with that Daniel Jones offense and then, you know dead last on Defense so they kind of built the exact opposite way that you want to build a team in the NFL You'd rather be strong both in the passing game and defending the pass And and the thing that my numbers like is that the piece the Eagles past defense isn't terrible They're they're about league average and so that's part of my reasons why my numbers like the Eagles in this game I have it exactly at three and a half points, which is where I believe the market is right now You know, I was slightly lean towards Philadelphia just because they had a bi-week last week in New York then but But otherwise, yeah, I mean I don't see a ton of value in this game That doesn't mean there won't be in the future for the Eagles What's wild about the Giants thing is that the the team building stuff you mentioned is intentional like last year They traded for Leonard Williams Leonard Williams like has had like one sack in his career But he's a good run defender they traded a third and I think a conditional fifth round pick for him and then franchise tagged him I think they franchise tagged him and brought him back they Drafted say Kwame Barkley obviously second overall they took a used a high pick on will Hernandez as a guard I like Hernandez a lot guards guards are underrated in the passing game, but like I don't think that's why Dave Gettlemann took him like the fact that they're good against the run and Decent as a running team It's intentional and I feel like that's such an indictment of the front office to like be doing this in freaking 2020 but like it's just so obvious that that's the way they're doing things. Well, I mean Gettlemann's known to have Been against the analytics. I know he supposedly had changed that and I had hired some people he hired some computer folks I think he said computer folks. I'm pretty sure that's the verbiage he used So they got some shy dudes that they stick in the basement to build some database that has no use Exactly Yeah, so I mean, yeah, it's exactly the wrong way to build a team and Yeah, they're they're not doing well right now, so we'll see just brutal And like you never want to root for a team to fail But like if you're gonna root for a team to fail might as well be one that bashes analytics We'll talk more about this game in my covering the future Let's move now though to the bills at the Cardinals Cardinals here one and a half point favorites total is 56 and a half and we've talked about this a couple of times now where your numbers are high on Josh Allen and they have been For 2020 specifically previously. No, but this year specifically and he made you look really good last week So is that enough to get you to back the bills here as a road underdog? Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I think Josh Allen was very good last week. I think the Buffalo defense was spectacular last week I mean they were in Russell Wilson's face The entire game and and really pushed him to do some things that that he didn't really want to do But yeah, so let's actually talk about Buffalo at Arizona So this is an interesting game like I mentioned before, you know, everything's a Combination of preseason prior market-based numbers and this season's data and this season's data actually has Arizona by To about two and a half points So it would suggest that the the market's pretty fair. I was seeing a lot of twos this morning So and and that's actually where I where I bet this but I'm not, you know, I think there's some noise in this estimate, you know, we have nine weeks of data It's not necessarily that, you know, my success rate numbers are gonna be spot-on They're probably not spot-on even after 16 games. So let's just be honest, right? So, you know, can we figure out like which way it should go? So so Arizona's defense actually looks pretty good compared to Buffalo's defense So and this is one big factor that goes in Arizona's 14th in adjusted success rate Buffalo's 29th But I mean, I think Buffalo's defense is probably a lot better than that You know, they've had a pretty good reputation under Sean McDermott and this is also supported by PFF grades So the the defense ranks 22nd overall when you look at their grades These are not adjusted for opponent. So just throwing that out there But they're also 16th in the more important aspect of coverage So I think that they're they're probably better than than than that 29th Arizona they might be the average but their PFF grades actually had the defense 24th overall and and 23rd in coverage and I think it's interesting because they've made a big point in The emphasis on how coverage really really matters It matters more than pass rush in terms of stopping the pass Nick Saban just came out and emphasized So there was that article where Nick Saban came out and said, you know college football is all about offense now But what actually got hidden in that article is that? He said that on defense you really have to look at how your secondary covers So Nick Saban saying the same thing I think a lot of these ideas from the NFL are kind of filtering down to college football and You know, like when I'm handicapped in a game like I'm looking at the quarterback position And I'm looking at how the secondary covers and I'm trying to think more about like, you know Using the PFF grades as like in addition to what I'm looking at in passing success rate So anyways, I think Arizona's defense might be a little bit higher Might be a little bit higher in my numbers than they actually are I think Buffalo's number defense is a little bit lower than they actually are other thing you have to look at that Yeah, the other thing you have to look at in this game is critical injuries in the secondary I talked about before how I think that's one of the reasons why there's a lot of points There's a lot of teams have cornerbacks that have gotten hurt So for Arizona Drake, her Patrick and Byron Murphy both did not play in the last game. They're both questionable Probably likely to be out for this game The last game they missed against was Miami. They allowed a 53 percent passing success rate to to a tongue by law So that's not a really good sign about what's going on in their secondary Buffalo has their own problems Tradavius white is got banged up in the last game. I think he came off He is questionable, but you know practice Thursday, which he didn't practice Wednesday I've been watching this for the same reasons to you But he practiced Thursday and that was like the first time since week four that they've had Tradavius white And they had a couple linebackers in this time too like they're trending one way health-wise the Cardinals are trending the opposite way Yeah, well, I mean, you know, I mean Yeah, the bills aren't perfect, right? I mean Josh Normans only played three games this year in the middle of the season I don't know when he's coming back but You know Tradavius white is probably the best cover corner. So if he can play that would be good So we'll see how that shakes out. But like I think the odds are like injuries are going to hurt Arizona more than they hurt Buffalo But actually let's get to the real reason why I like Buffalo in this game They're they're just better on offense in the pass offense. So I've hated on Josh Allen in the past But I mean the guy's just been good. So there's six when I look at Adjusted success rate and pass offense. He's got 85 pff pass grade And I just have a lot of confidence like even in the the Tennessee game where they lost Like he was making plays he was consistently making those short and intermediate throws and that's what the success rate shows you Collar Murray's been very good as well But the you know, Arizona ranks 10th in my adjusted pass rate Not as good as the sixth of Buffalo and then his pass grade and pff is is 74. So again, not as as good a down Anyways, I like Buffalo plus two a lot in this game. Um, it's a little crazy that uh, I'm pinning bets on josh Allen these days, but I just think this is uh, I think this is a good game for Buffalo And uh, you know, I think they you know, I my number is like I think I think they favored Arizona by a slight bit. Um, right, but I think there's some value I think there's some value here for sure in Buffalo plus two Yeah, actually, sorry. My number is like Buffalo by like about a half point Okay, so bills plus one and a half is pretty easily value then for sure. You bet it at two, right? I got it at two Yeah, so like I mean absolutely and I think that I can push back on josh Allen as much as I want which I like you had done previously but like I think the good thing about josh allen is you can kind of tell when he's going to be good and kind of tell When he's not going to be good and I agree with you where I don't think this Arizona defense is a Not going to be good situation if we're going to classify things that way, which is you know kind of simplistic But I think that if we're looking at it that way There's no channel jones. Obviously I agree where we should favor coverage over rush But you know if they're not going to get a josh allen that's fewer opportunities for josh allen to go 2019 josh allen where he goes just loses his brain and does something very stupid Which can throw away a cover That's not as likely to happen if there's no channel jones and there are injuries in the secondary So I think you're right on here. I totally agree the bills are the the right side of this game Because I think their defense like you said should get better with the health trending up the cardinals defense trending the other way, so I think the bills are the right way to go here as well Let's finish up here with seahawks at rams rams two point favorites total here is 55 and a half and We've talked with rams a couple of times because the market data on them is very interesting And you've talked about them because in the pre season you said the market see them as being a mediocre team and very quickly They adjusted to view them as being Like a top fly team. So if we look at your numbers, what do they say about the rams and this game going in? Yeah, so let's just start with the markets, right? Like the markets had The rams dead dead average and and they moved up Because you know because they played well, you know a lot of my numbers You know you can argue that you know one point data only beaten NFC East teams, but You know my numbers account for that like they adjust for that when When you're evaluating the rams, I think they are better. They are pretty good But I think the markets have moved pretty strong on seattle. Like they saw what they were doing On offense. They saw they were letting russell wilson throw in early downs, which is I mean Someone has to be able to figure out whatever the expected points added of that is like it's gotta Sane, right? And you see like the evolution of dk metcalfe as like an elite receiver in this league So I think the markets moved pretty hard on them too Probably even more so than the rams. So when I do my market rankings, which are based on past closing point spreads They would actually favor seattle by about a half point point seven points here um The data from this year actually favors the rams quite a bit Um And the the thing I noticed in the numbers is that this rams teams actually looks a lot like the 2018 version that made it to the Superbowl In the sense that they were like they were good They were above average at pass offense. Um, they're eighth when I look at adjusted success rate But they're elite in terms of running the ball. So they're first by adjusted success rate And it's not like a little it's like a lot And you know, we always talk, you know, we always kind of trash on running backs and running the ball But like if you can do that consistently that that is a benefit to your offense And that was really what was propelling them two years ago Um, also the defense in in both years. I think the defense in 2018 was better But this defense is pretty solid at tenth my adjusted success rate um So the numbers this year do favor, uh The rams when you kind of put together all three aspects of the model, uh, it gives a slight edge to the los angeles rams in this game Point three points. Um, I think I do. I mean, I I I definitely would lean towards Seattle You definitely like to bet on the better quarterback, which is certainly Russell Wilson In this case, the only thing that makes me a little bit cautious is that they're probably going to miss their top two cornerbacks Another team that that well, they were terrible with these two guys They're going to be worse without them without Quentin Dunbar and Shakira Griffin in this game, um So yeah, I would definitely lean towards Seattle in this game, but um, but because of those injuries I'm I'm a little hesitant and you we're talking about the rams rushing game Darryl Henderson was able to return to practice on thursday and like I just love thinking about him because it makes me think back to college when he was at Memphis and just like Every carry was like a 60 yard run, which is great for like college football at the fs If you're in a state where that was legal. Yeah, but it's fun to think about that. He's been good I mean, I think that he's number one in pro football focus is great for running backs and like like he said like Running backs don't matter as much as passing game But if you're an outlier like that can be beneficial as well The thing that I like about this rams team against the seahawks offense is that They're not going to get pressure on jared golf. Uh, the seahawks. I think are seventh That the seventh the worst pressure rate defensively and jared golf has time he can be a really good quarterback. So I think that It's definitely intriguing But I agree with you like it's hard to like not go with seattle when it's russell wilson against jared golf Like as much as I think the the seahawks or the rams will put up points here I can't get like I am past the days where I'm betting against russell wilson. I refuse like right I don't I don't want to ever write something off But like I'm very close to never betting against russell wilson Even though it's been beneficial a couple of times this year because the markets have been so reactive to what they've done Right, but I've also bet on deshaun wassen a lot this year for those exact same reasons and gotten burned by that terrible terrible defense Numbers-wise, they're not quite as terrible as my eyes make them seem. So I'm trying I'm trying to stick with that a little bit So there's always a balance here, but like the quarterback discrepancy here is it's pretty big I think I would say absolutely the good thing for the rams too That uh, is something that whale capper talked about uh, georgenzik talked about a couple weeks ago where That miami game where they just got obliterated That was their fourth game on the east coast for the year And they had had only three home. They've had only three home games so far. This is week 10 So that'll help uh for sure, but I do think that you know if I were to make a bet on this game I I'd probably lean towards you and go with the seahawks, but just it's so hard Like logically it makes sense to go rams, but I just can't I can't I can't bet against russell wilson my heart I I value my health and therefore I will pass well and and also like when we start getting closer to the playoffs And the super bowl here like I really think the nfc is about which quarterback plays the best, right? You talk about seattle green bay norleans those guys can all sling it um And it's like, you know one of the defenses might show up when it matters, but like i'm not counting on that No, i'm cutting on the quarterback to get it done. So Oh, yeah, we should probably throw birdie in there and maybe the tampa bay defense might be the one that can you know Maybe swing a game, but It's it's going to be wild It's going to be wild when we get into the playoffs in the nfc If you look at nfc odds right now for the for the conference championship New Orleans and seattle are plus 350 green bay and tampa bay are plus 450 and nobody else shorter than 10 like that's There's no runaway favorite there There's no nfc east team in there No shockingly, uh, the the shortest the eagles are actually 17 to 1 I think it's because their playoff odds are probably so high If I had to guess But like I mean the cardinals are shorter and they're the third ranked team in the nfc west Wow So yeah, uh, that's a it's a wild year for sure But I think that we'll we'll learn a lot this week with the the card was gonna be a tough test and the The rams and the seahawks doing their thing too, so it'd be a pretty fun weekend of action If you believe the rams win this game, maybe you want to get down now on the rams 10 to 1 to win the nfc championship because it would put them in a good position Relative to seattle in a good position in that division as well Covering the future All right, so that's what ed's numbers say about week number 10 ed Thank you for diving into those and the big one there was the bills plus two Against the or the bills plus one and a half against the cardinals there So make sure you get that one if you can get two, you know Search around for that as well. You can get two Absolutely My cover in the future for this week is going back to that giant's eagles game and I don't want the eagles I want the over at 44 and a half for this game because I like to target teams that are getting healthier And it's easy to spot a team that is getting less healthy, you know God's like oh no back of getting her and stuff like that. We can spot that easily but getting more healthy I think tends to fly under the radar from a betting perspective So I am in on the over this week for the giants and the eagles of the eagles getting healthier They've had both lane johnson and isaac say amalu at practice this week Say amalu might not be ready just yet But he was actually working at left guard and practice on thursday alongside jason peters And you're probably not doing that on a thursday practice unless you plan to play the guys So I think there's decent on say amalu returns and that's really interesting because for the entire season again this week 10 They've had lane johnson and isaac say amalu on the field for 25 snaps the entire year If they're both back that'd be huge this eagles offense But even if it's just lane johnson the eagles are trending up. They got jail and rager and dallas goddard back in week 8 Even if they don't can say amalu back you could argue This is going to be the healthiest they've been in at least a month and they get that just in time For a tango with number fire is 23rd right defense after jesson for schedule That's heavily weighted towards the passing game as we talked about before because passing does matter So, uh, I think they're ninth in success rate against running backs, but 23rd overall defense They did play these two teams did back in week sevens. This is a divisional rematch and That can sometimes favor unders but based on what I've done from research perspective It's shown that that's more so true when quarterbacks are dependent on efficiency And in a total of 44 and a half you're not counting on efficiency These quarterbacks are not efficient so i'm not counting on that and I think that that's why i'm willing to overlook the fact They did just play each other the other reason I think that this game is intriguing is that the eagles defense is is fine But not one that's like prohibitive by any means during 13th in schedule adjusted defense over at number fire. So I think both sides Should be able to move the ball here and put up some points and the total does not reflect that I think that we talked about this cup like pretty early on you can find a total that's under 45 with two Starting quarterbacks still in there. It's hard to turn it down You could argue if Carson Wentz has played like a starting level quarterback, uh by for sure so far this year But I still think that uh leaning over here 44 and a half is a way to go Nothing problematic weather wise either. So I feel pretty good about the over here at 44 and a half And I know you said you don't like uh, you don't like your totals numbers as much But do they have a read on this game at all 44 and a half? Uh, I mean not really. I mean it's under what you would expect given that you know, the market data is is part of that It's about about 41. Um, you know when you think about matchups and how bad the Giants pass defenses Uh, you know, maybe Carson Wentz can do something if he can just avoid the turnovers If that's a it's a big if it is a big if there But I think hey if he's gonna turn it over at least so pick six because that's that's great for overs So Carson's exactly come through for you buddy if you're gonna throw a pick make it count That is all that we have for this week here on covering the spread as mentioned Do not forget to check out our discussion with Mike Craig about week 11 in college football A lot of good stuff from him and just a good conversation in general You can find that by searching for recovering the spread wherever you get your podcast and What is going on for you this week over at the power rank and on the football analytics show? Yeah, so a couple of exciting things I talked to kevin uh call on the football analytics show Great data scientist that really understands football. So so go check that out Also drew martin is going to start doing some videos Based on my numbers. So he breaks down games in the way drew martin breaks down games But he mentions my numbers and so it's just another way to get some college football predictions That you would otherwise have to get by becoming a member of my site I don't really have a link for you. It's on my twitter. It's on my twitter I'll probably tweet about it again tonight But but drew is doing that I think that's making me start the power rank youtube channel. Actually, it has made me start the power Okay, so there'll probably be some other things Maybe even talk to to you guys about putting putting some of the audio and and some video with some video of some of the things that we talk about But um, yeah, so drew martin is going to be doing videos is going to be doing it every week So the power right now is youtube channel. So go check it out. Man big getting free agency for ed I like this. This is really cool. What is the power rank youtube handle? I think it's power right Okay, so you can touch the power rank else for this like I usually have something like the power rank dot info or the power something to to send you over there um Whenever you start something new there's always like You know, they it always kind of sucks at the beginning So in this new youtube channel, but like when I first started podcast Even when I listened to podcast that I did a couple years ago. Oh my gosh What that? I mean, what the heck was I doing? So if I read an article that I wrote a year ago I hate myself for like the entire way through it's like, why would you say that? That's terrible wording. You couldn't have said this in fewer words. What are you talking about? This is stupid That's not funny. Why would you try that? I think you're probably a little bit too hard on yourself It shows the you know the the emphasis on improvement which which everyone everyone should have but um But anyways, it's just getting started Drew is going to be doing something every week for college football heading in the ball season I'm gonna I don't know what I'm going to do but I I am definitely going to try to put some short clips up of of You know things that are more evergreen that we talk about on the football analytic show So just use that audio as as some uh as part of video content as well And then I don't know maybe maybe I'll maybe I'll break down NFL games once the playoffs get here Um, so we'll see but you've already got an in-house ringer with your son Like your son's a youtube like genius. So like just talk to him like have him do Yeah, yeah, so my son definitely does does the youtube as well. Um, but uh, you know, he's kind of on a little bit of a break We're trying to we're kind of trying to push him back into doing things a little bit more regularly When he first started he was banging him out every week Which was good. Yeah, and now he's trying to do these more sophisticated things Which is good, but yeah We'll just get him on the power rank youtube and uh go from there and and until then Drew martin is a nice way to hold things over for sure until we can get your son Over there So find that by going to ed's twitter at the power rank also check out the football analytic show for that discussion With kevin coal was one of my favorite analysts as well. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast We had our nfl dfs preview podcast up today with myself brandy gadoola You can find that by searching for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed really fun week 10 main slate So find that over there big. Thank you to calvin feeball our video producer for running the video side of things here today Thank you cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck with your bets for week 10 Also for week 11 to college football Also for the masters have fun and what should be a really fun sports weekend We'll talk to you again next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network You