 Hello and welcome to NewsCrick. Today we're joined by Prabir Pukhais and we're going to be talking about what seems like a resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict which has been going on for the past few weeks. As we know Azerbaijan and Armenia have been at a military conflict over this region and this conflict is many decades long. There was a war fought in the early 90s after which an independent republic was proclaimed called the Republic of Artsakh which is also known as Nagorno-Karabakh. There were a lot of regions which Armenia was claiming which originally belonged to Azerbaijan and recently the Azeris launched a military assault to recapture some of these areas. Now on the 9th of November after almost close to over 1000 lives were lost, a Russian mediated deal has come into place. According to this deal some of these regions will be given back to Azerbaijan and the Russian peacekeepers are going to be deployed in the region as well. So to talk more about this, Prabir is going to talk about the larger significance of this. So Prabir, we discussed the Nagorno-Karabakh issue a couple of weeks ago also when it seemed like there was a stalemate and this issue, the conflict has continued, the fighting has continued. So how do we, at what point was this deal reached? Well it's very difficult to predict the future. So all we can say is a stalemate has been broken. The stalemate was really the post-94 scenario in which the Azeris has not only lost territory but the Armenians had taken over also parts of Azerbaijan where the Azeri population was a majority. Most of them were Azeris and not unlike Nagorno-Karabakh but there was a majority of Armenians over there. So the ethnic cleansing did not take place only in the Armenian majority areas but it also took place in areas which are clearly Azeri population areas and they were also evicted ethnically cleansed from that area. And if you look at the picture you will see Nagorno-Karabakh has on both its north, south and as well as its west, it had Azeri areas it had occupied essentially which are not Armenian population majority areas. So there are two issues. One is the status of Nagorno-Karabakh itself which had an Armenian majority which wanted to be with Armenia not with Azerbaijan. Of course it's an enclave but so is Nagchivan which is also an enclave, Azeri enclave bordering Turkey and Iran. So this issue has also been not simply one of enclaves being there of different populations but also the fact that the ethnic cleansing of the Azeris took place in the 92-94 war. Armenia emerged as a victor who claimed that Nagorno-Karabakh is now an independent entity as you said but also there was no talk about giving back the Azeri majority areas back to Azerbaijan. It was always felt that this would be part of a deal which would lead to a larger peace in the area. Unfortunately Armenia felt that having won the war they could claim this territory and therefore they could over a period of time populate with Armenians. They started some of this population and perhaps that was the reason why after 94 we saw the war take place in 1920 but Azerbaijan decided that there is no other way but war if it wanted to regain its territories. And here is a miscalculation that Armenia defeated Azerbaijan quite easily in the 92-94 war. Azerbaijan was apparently, this is both a part of the Soviet Union, it's a breakup of the Soviet Union which leads to this kind of war as well. Then at that time Azerbaijan was militarily not equipped to face Armenia, mainly because Armenian forces were more cohesive and Azerbaijan did not manage to put up a modern army which could contest for the control of these areas. Azerbaijan has come a long way, it's an oil-rich country, it has bought arms and weapons. I think it's also been helped by Turkey in various ways. As you know Azerbaijan and Turkey speak Turkish language so they have affinities with each other. Azerbaijan is sheer so in that sense it would have certain affinities with Iran also but nevertheless Turkey and Azerbaijan have been closed and they have been supported, helped in different ways. The Turkish drones seem to have played a major role in the war but what has happened is what was achieved by Armenia through war has been reversed partially by Azerbaijan through war. And it seems that not only have they taken back the Azeri populated areas which were depopulated actually after the 94 war at least of the Azeri population. Some Armenian speaking people had been settled there, Armenian ethnicity people were settled there but it was still not a very significant population. Those areas have been taken back but even parts of what have been called the Nagorno-Karabakh as propelled by the Armenians have also fallen to Azerbaijan and I don't know what will be the long-term trajectory of this agreement. Will Azerbaijan forces pull back from this area which were largely Armenian population where the population was largely Armenian. Of course this could also be areas from which the evacuation is taking place. It has claimed 100,000 refugees already so we don't know what is the status of the situation on the ground that what are the people fled this area are there under Azerbaijan occupation at the moment. So these are the issues that still need to be resolved over the Nagorno-Karabakh itself. If it gets settled on the lines that the Armenian population which was the majority in the 90s that remains with Armenia as an enclave under protection of Russia. Russia is protecting giving the protecting the Lachin corridor which links Armenia now with Nagorno-Karabakh and whatever is left of it including the capital. Now if that is agreed to that the Armenian majority areas will be a part of Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan will withdraw from it and this is the status quo which will be maintained both sides and the originally Azerbaijan populated areas would go back to Azerbaijan. I think we have the makings of peace. Unfortunately this peace was not done through any peaceful negotiations. It was done by armed power and always the problem with armed power is the victor feels to the victor goes as points as Armenia did earlier. There is a possibility Azerbaijan will do it now and if that happens we have prospects of future tension clashes and even a future war. So it doesn't lead to a peace. The second part and you raised a number of issues in your initial question. The second point is really the reemergence of Russia as the peacekeeper, guarantor of peace in what were ex-Russian or which were really ex-Soviet states. The third part of Soviet Union or Soviet Union was the union of states. So it was really a part of that. Armenia and Azerbaijan both were a part of that and Russia has now taken over the role of at least a peacekeeper, banging heads together and getting them into a peace. So I think a new reality of the area that Russia is playing a role again in this areas of a country which is the guarantor of peace in the region. I think that's a very important development as well. Premier in this context is interesting you mentioned that because the earlier grouping of countries which were trying to resolve this conflict also involved France also involved the United States. And now what we see is that Turkey and Russia have emerged as the key players in this conflict like you said Turkey of course backing Azerbaijan fully. But at the end by the deal was primarily a Russian initiative. It is Russia which has the responsibility of maintaining the peace between both sides. Although Russia was seen as more of an ally of Armenia by at least some sections. So what we see also is that the European powers which have often tried to intervene in these regions and the United States were basically nowhere in this conflict as well. This is the issue that I think the world is slowly coming to grips with the different parts of the world. Earlier scenario was NATO was a dominant force in the area militarily anywhere in the world at least in Europe, if not in Asia. Certainly also in West Asia as we know, and the United States with its NATO allies would dictate what the peace should be. This is whether it's Israel Palestine, whether it's West Asia other countries, whether it's North Africa and of course it also applied to Europe, particularly Eastern Europe. Now that has come under tension, post Yeltsin going and the emergence of Putin as a president is with a strong president, pulled the Russian state together and has slowly emerged as a center of power. What we see gradually is that the reemergence of the equations between states, which is being recreated now, not on the lines of what it was during the Soviet Union time because Soviet Union was in the Union of States was much bigger. But gradually it is becoming clear that if Russia is not a party to the agreement, that agreement will not hold whether it is in Belarus. Whether it is in Ukraine or now in Armenia Azerbaijan. So this is I think one realization that if you want peace, then Russia is the only country which can deliver that peace. And if you try to play it like as if it's an opponent, then this battles or this issues become intractable. This is the Armenian issue as well. Armenia had a relationship with Russia. So did Azerbaijan. It's not that they did not have the equation with Armenia and Azerbaijan and Armenia has a defense treaty with Russia. But that does not encompass Nagorno-Karabakh because Nagorno-Karabakh is not legally a part of Armenia. Therefore, Russia would protect Armenia if Azerbaijan attacked Armenia proper, which it didn't. So this is the issue that if the expectation that what you're talking about the Minsk group of countries, which includes Germany includes. France and the US, France and of course Russia. So the Minsk group of countries is really Russia plus NATO countries. That's the reality of the Minsk group. And earlier also in Ukraine, the Minsk group was really NATO plus NATO negotiating with the Russians. That was the basic issue. And in the Minsk group, France and Germany have played a different role sometimes from the United States. Those agreements did not hold because US did not hold on to the agreement that might have been reached in, say, for example, in Ukraine by the Minsk group. So Russia quickly recognized that Minsk group does not deliver unless the US is willing to deliver. And at the moment, of course, you have complete distraction of the US elections. But in the past five, six years also, the both Obama administration has been unwilling to recognize Russia as an equal partner in this area in terms of discussion. And the Trump era saw Trump really being hamstrung to create any independent policy initiating with Russia, because he was always accused of being a Trump's, we Russians too. Now it's very strange to the rest of the world to think that, you know, the strongest country in the world elects a president who is supposed to be the stooge of another country. But that's the United States for you. That was the whole propaganda that existed over there. And of course Trump himself being a complete unguided missile, if you will. There was really nothing that came out of any diplomacy he ever attempted. So given that part, I think there's a recognition in the area that either you have Russia as a peacekeeper, or you have nothing, or the war continues. This recognition that Russia is the only one who can guarantee peace in the region I think is important. But also I think Russia is also to understand that I think the fact that Turkey is very much a part of these discussions. So officially it's not a guarantor of peace because it seemed to be too much a player on the other banjan side. So therefore Armenia is not going to accept Turkey as a mediator or a peacekeeper. But the point is this regional politics that countries in the region should settle what the future should be. And this is something which is an issue in West Asia. It's an issue here. It's an issue also in Eastern Europe. And this is the new reality which if countries accept, Europe will have a different trajectory. If Western Europe refuses to accept this and wants to be a part of extension of the United States, extension of NATO, versus the Russians and regard Russia as the enemy, then the whole of Europe then becomes a contention zone. And particularly Eastern Europe, Central Europe, these are the places which will continue to be unstable and the Baltic region. All of them will become unstable because then it becomes a jockeying for power and to see how you can encircle Russia as the game. This is the American game. But do the European countries want to play that role? That is the issue. At the moment they have not shown enough spying by which even though their interests may not be identical with the United States, that they have been able to carve out an independent policy. So that is something we have to see. I do believe that the Armenia-Azerbaijan disagreement also shows that there is a changing global scenario, that local issues, regional issues are going to be much more addressed by the regional powers. The United States has made the United Nations Security Council, the United Nations itself dysfunctional. It has made its own foreign policy dysfunctional as Iran senior leaders have said it is no longer treaty capable. So I think the world has to look for alternate solutions. And countries like India which think they can have long-term alliances with the United States to counter China and they can work out an independent policy. Good luck to them. When I am saying it, I am saying the considerable amount of bitterness, because this is never India's geo-strategic position, the fact that we are increasingly giving up the geo-strategic autonomy at a time when people are asserting their geo-strategic autonomy, I think is unfortunate. Thank you so much for talking to us. That's all we have time for today. Keep watching.