 Welcome traders to Tick Mail weekly market outlook for week commencing the 30th of November. Dollar drifting lower again, retesting loads of the years as traders reallocate portfolios to recovery trades in the rest of the world. One key part of the story is that the federal keep rates very low and well into the upturn and we should hear a little more of this story from friend chair power this week who has various speeches and also appears before the Senate banking committee with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to discuss the CARES Act. We'll also see the latest beige book ahead of the next FOMC meeting for the 16th of December. We'll also get some fresh US macro updates in the form of the November employment report and ISM releases on the former but for slightly above the 500k consensus figure but below consensus on both the ISM manufacturing and services indices. Indeed the focus this week will be whether US state governors now that Thanksgiving is out of the way choose to impose harsher lockdowns to curb second waves. While more lockdown restrictions may stand to curb US equity markets prospect of the Fed being prepared to have more liquidity should limit any potential dollar upside. So from a technical perspective we're still grinding out this fourth wave in terms of the dollar. We are at a key technical level as we retest the year to date lows. Now if we do get some bids coming to the market here we've also got month end on Monday any upside should be capped by this 9350 to 9380 area and for me at this stage all roads lead to the 90 level. If at the beginning of the week we take out the year to date lows then look for a grind into that 90 level in the incoming sessions. In terms of the euro has continued to grind higher moved by the broadly weaker dollar. Local inputs to the euro story for the week ahead come from the Eurozone flash November CPI seen still at minus 0.3% euro per year and a soft October retail sales figure is likely. Neither should detract from the view that the ECB will offer fresh stimulus when it meets on December 10. The simmering threat of a veto of the EU recovery fund by either Poland or Hungary has yet to be taken seriously by FX markets as a deal is expected and the euro will also take note of any progress in terms of Brexit. In the background any good Chinese November PMI numbers or any OPEC plus outcome which does not hurt crude oil too badly will probably be greeted well by the trade sensitive euro. From technical perspective the euro is just shy of its year to date highs at the 1.2012 area. Pay attention to how we trade on the initial test of those highs as we do have some significant momentum divergence developing. So we could get an interim pullback but as long as we hold the 118 area as support then I look for a test of the projected fifth wave upside target at 1.21.20. In terms of sterling it's once again potential make or break week for sterling as face-to-face EU-UK trade negotiations resumed in London over the weekend. The latest remark where both parties have highlighted lingering differences and have somewhat played down the chances of a deal prompting a late sell-off in sterling on Friday. Also the cost for hedging the downsiding cable through one-week risk reversals have risen to levels last seen in September. All this is mirroring a market that is becoming more concerned about potential no deal but the levels at which sterling is trading is still telling us that very little of the worst case scenario is being priced in. Accordingly should negotiations definitively collapse the downside reaction could be asymmetrical. Picking and timing on an official deal or no deal announcement remains complicated considering the number of delays but time is indeed running very short and we should at least see the balance tilt towards one of the two outcomes more decisively over the coming week. The view really is that we're probably likely to see a skinny type deal mostly focus on trade rather than services. So the market retains a positive bias on sterling. The data calendar looks very quiet in the UK next week and there are only two speeches by BOEs terreno to keep an eye on. So it's going to be a wait and see once again on the Brexit negotiations. From a technical perspective sterling looks poised to test its prior year to date cycle highs at 134.87. Again watching momentum divergence here because there is a potential for a quick pullback to retest the 131 area of support before buyers will likely step in with some gusto targeting the fifth wave objective for this move up above 139. If we don't hold the 131 area we could see a deeper pullback to test the primary trend line support back down to 129.50. It would really only take a loss of 128.55 to concern the bullish perspective at this point. Dollyann has returned to type with one month levels of implied volatility drifting back to the 5% area. However, it is somewhat encouraging that it continues to trade below the 105 level despite some reasonably large Japanese buying on foreign bonds according to portfolio flow data. This charms of the view that the global extras from the dollar will dominate many FX pairs over the coming year. Japanese data this week is industrial production and retail sales as well as some jobs data. This typically doesn't drive the yen and instead the dollar yen will probably take more notice of any fresh US lockdowns or virus, good or bad use is more likely to impact the dollar yen. So what we're looking at from a technical perspective is we continue to trade in this descending trend channel as we hold this 103.80 area as potential sport here any move back up into the 105 is likely to meet resistance. I'm ultimately looking for a test and break of the 103 level to drive down to test the year to date lows at 101.20 we could get a pop here that I'd be using any strength there to sell into and the target really for this move now becomes the 100 level. In terms of Australia it's actually going to be a busy week with many Aussie dollar domestic drivers on the central bank side the RBA will announce monetary policy on Tuesday and Governor Philip Low will deliver a speech to the Parliament Economic Committee the following day. Both of these events come before a key piece of data for policy decisions that being the third quarter growth figures which will be released during Low's Parliament testimony. Accordingly don't expect the RBA meeting to bring major surprises considering the bank very recently deployed a new large stimulus package. If anything Governor Low may want to stress repeatedly that the RBA is not out of fire power. However more easing looks quite unlikely and markets also appear in line with this view. Some traders will hope for any signals that the RBA is shifting away from its relaxed stance on the relatively strong Aussie but it hasn't really reached levels that warrant such a shift in sanctions yet. With the RBA impact on the Aussie possibly quite contained the GDP figures may drive any idiosyncratic moves in the pair. Expect a 2.5% quarter over quarter read which is marginally above consensus. I'm inclined to think that the Aussie will move in line with global risk dynamics. As usual it's worth keeping an eye on the China-Australia trade spat which shows no signs of abating and the Aussie has remained dangerously complacent to this story as with the other major pairs the Aussie looks poised now to test its year to date highs at the $0.74 level. Look for any reversals here any failure at these prior highs because once again we note this developing momentum divergence. Any failure here and any reversals could give a counter-trend shorting opportunity but I've been looking for any pull back into projected ascending trend support at the $71.35 as an ideal area to re-engage on the long side looking for the equality objective versus the $69.94 gives us an upside fifth wave target at $76.92 so any pull backs and bullish reversals to be jumping in on the long side for that fifth wave upside objective. As always traders you can join me on Thursday for real-time updates and analysis on a broad section of markets and this concludes the weekly market outlook for the week commencing the 30th of November have a prosperous week.