 Hello and welcome to CMC Markets on Thursday the 2nd of November and this quick look at the week ahead beginning the 6th of November and once again we're coming off a week of new record highs for the German DAX, the S&P 500 US Markets in general and we've also seen a new 20 year high in the Nikkei 225 central bank policy still remains fairly accommodative the US Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged in November but they did slightly upgrade their outlook for the US economy which makes it much more likely that we will probably see a Federal Reserve rate hike in December this year just over just over a month from now before that we have the small matter of non-farm payrolls which is due out on Friday the 3rd of November so obviously I don't have sight of those numbers yet but that could also obviously play a very big part in how markets move and how the dollar moves in particular over the course of the next week or so just give a brief synopsis of what we're expecting for those numbers expecting a number in the region of 300,000 for non-farm payrolls and that's really as a result really of the 33,000 decline that we saw in the September numbers and more importantly I think will be the number for wage growth that jumps up to 2.9 in September I expect that to drop back a little bit to 2.7 but what I don't expect these numbers to do is really undermine the case for a US rate rise and we've also got visibility now on the new head of the Federal Reserve the person has replaced Janet Yellen as the chief next year it's likely to be Jerome Powell he's likely to be confirmed in the course of the next few hours so looking slightly ahead obviously we're looking at the German DAX and we can see that's hit record highs the euro has broken below a very very key neckline support level around about 1.16.17 and it remains to be seen whether or not this particular breakout that we've seen gets confirmed over the course of the rest of the week because the non-farm payrolls numbers couldn't really change the optics with respect to this particular move over the course of the next few days and he'd move and close back above 1.17 it's likely to be it's likely to be fairly damaging to the bearish case but as long as we don't break above this trend line here then I'm still of the opinion that we will see a lower euro and a slightly stronger dollar same sort of thing with dolly yen dolly yen is round about 1.14.40 which is a very key resistance level again I think if we get a move through 1.14.40 we could see further gains in dolly yen and that in turn will take the Nikkei 225 already above the 22,000 level but probably close to the 23,000 level over the course of the next few days we've also seen the Bank of England finally reverse that misguided rate cut in 2016 Mr. Kearney virtually had to be dragged kicking and screaming to reverse that rate that rate cut from it from just over a year ago so base rates are now back at 0.5% but it was a very dovish outlook for the Bank of England and I think the concern now is that if we break below 1.30 and a half on the pound then that could undermine the uptrend that's been in place for the past few months since those March lows certainly worth keeping on that and the 100 day moving average what are we looking forward to for the week beginning the 6th of November is two more central bank rate meetings and this time we're looking over in Asia particularly at the RBA where interest rates are currently 1.5% and where the Aussie dollar is currently looking as if it's finding a little bit of support down just above the just around about the 76th area so if there's a particularly bullish outlook from the RBA with with the meeting coming up next week then we could see a move back through the 77.50 area back towards 78 but it does certainly does seem to be the case that the break below this very very key level here around about 77 40 7780 could well be precipitating further Australian dollar weakness we really do need to see a move back above there to really target a move back towards 79 it's also a big week for the New Zealand dollar as well let's take in a bit of a battering over the course of the past few weeks with the advent of this new Labour government that's just come into power there's a little bit of concern that they might look to change the mandate of the RBNZ RBNZ base rate is 1.75% so we'll certainly be keeping an eye on that and in particular this very very big support level around about 68 cents I think if the RBNZ keeps monetary policy unchanged which again I think is highly likely it's really then a question of how hawkish or how dovish are they likely to be against the backdrop of what it could be potentially a much more interventionist Labour government so that's the key levels on the key we dollar also worth keeping an eye out for the latest China trade data and that's due out later in the week for October keep a particular close eye on the import and export data if export data continues to hold up fairly well then that points to a fairly resilient global economy certainly the data that we've been seeing coming out of Europe over the course of the past few weeks continues to be of the positive variety so certainly I think the European economy is showing those lines of slowing down that being said unemployment in pocket still remains very very high so that's likely to be a pressure point going forward the inflation the inflation picture within the European Union still remains fairly modest and I think that's likely to weigh on the euro for quite some time to come given the fairly dovish ECB rate meeting that we got last month a couple of other things to keep an eye out for this week some important UK manufacturing and industrial production data which is due out at the back end of this week that could get that could give a decent indication as to the direction of the pound at this point in time certainly if we look at euro sterling in terms of where we could go to next we did see a very dovish hike on the back of that Bank of England rate meeting which could suggest a little bit of a short squeeze back to rules around about the 50 and the 100 day moving average and that is a very very positive candle there so we could certainly well see a squeeze back to 90 but I would be very very surprised if we saw much of a move really significantly above that other things to keep an eye out for this coming week are the latest half yearly numbers from Burberry and Sainsbury's and we've also got quarterly updates from TripAdvisor and Macy's that's it for this week thanks very much for listening this is Michael Houston talking to you from CMC Markets