 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It has been far too long since we have had Rob Friedman pinching ninja on the show here on covering the spread of talks and strikeout Props and friends we are writing that wrong for today because Rob is here to talk about his favorite strikeout props for Friday So we'll talk about some guys who could contend for the crown for the top strikeout getter of the night And then I'll also talk some MLB money lines. I like later on today This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire Joint heroes mentioned by Rob Friedman check him out on Twitter at pitching ninja You can find his work on peacock and they'll be calm and they'll be on Fox Of course on Fandall sportsbook as well getting your own profit boost this year Rob. That's awesome It's the first time we talked since October. So how you doing today? I'm doing great and I missed you and your intro like that intro is hard man It will never not go hard like I told you before we started they'll rip that intro from my cold bad hands because I Listen to it in my fun time You know as a as a diversion as always because it just you know picks you up a little bit, right? You should have like your ringtone. Maybe your alarm in the morning. I agree We'll work on that the alarm one might actually be a good idea I think we'll all have some people looking into that so we can get that Cooked up and what we're gonna do is same thing. We've done with Rob in the past where we talk about some strikeout props he likes and He recently fandals and posting this pretty fun market where they ask which picture will lead the night in strikeouts That market is not up yet We'll talk about it and talk about which guys Rob's gonna check once that market is posted And try to get you ready for that once fandal does post it later on today But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast two shows for today Because we got Christina black are coming on later on to talk the belmont stakes So to get that show right as it is posted make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and Check us out over on the fandal youtube page now Rob Let's dig into friday night slate and talk about some games here talk about some pictures and some strikeout props You like and I think that we couldn't have planned this any better getting you back here for a friday because we've got Shohei otani louise castilla garrick Cole christian Javier We've got a lot of fun guys on this slate So look at the strikeout props over at fandal sports before today. Which ones stand out to you? Well for one, I'm going to start with a not fun guy Like I don't know that most fans know him Very well at least at least casual fans Um, maryl kelly. I like a lot Um, I like his matchup. He's been great and i'm taking him today for tonight for uh, seven K's or more in this game Um, I just yeah like he he's been flying under the radar kind of a nondescript ace type picture. So uh, yeah big fan Yeah, maryl kelly gets the tigers for tonight So obviously a high strikeout matchup and it seems like he's made some changes this year rob where I'm not sure if it's like a conscious effort to get more strikeouts because in the past it's always been Good at suppressing hard contact. Now. It's kind of like his forte This year though, it really does seem like the strikeouts have been a bigger part of his repertoire Do you think that's like a conscious effort on his part to try to Decrease the variance on balls and play and stuff like that knowing his coach I mean when when you have brent strom is your coach. Yeah, yeah I would think so like he's a big fan of not letting opponents hit get the ball in play. So Um, I would imagine that's been a big discussion going with you know, elevated fast balls stuff like that to Really increase the case because he is you know while soft contact exists No contact is a little bit right, you know, I think for me. I love no contact like that's what I make my whole living on on twitter I I'm of the opinion that kevin costner said baseball back five years by saying strikeouts are fascist um, I think that that that baseball would have been Having like this renaissance that it's had recently a lot sooner if kevin costner had not had that line I feel like we would have gotten to this sooner because strikeouts are I think the most exciting part of baseball personally Like we heard uh, rob manfred talking about getting more balls and play. I'm like, no man I want strikeouts and dingers like I'm not a very simple human. That's all I want here. I love you. That's exactly Yeah, I mean totally totally agree like I am cool with dingers if you give me the strikeouts Right and I would rather someone announced their presence with authority than put balls I agree. Okay, it's a marrow kelly over six and a strikeouts is plus 116 right now vandal sports But any other strikeout props you're looking at for tonight rob Yeah, I mean I I have to bet on the premiere matchup of the day Which is castillo and otani and I expect them both to go at it And k totals to be high. I know castillo will raise this game. I know otani will too and I've got them I've got uh castillo for seven and otani for eight otani Yeah, we'll go into this a little more, but I think it's a really good match up for him He's had a little bit of bad luck lately. I see him kind of snapping back and and having a really good out Yeah, and like that houston game Even though It didn't really work in his favor. He still got six strikeouts there That was on the road against a team that is becoming a lower strikeout team once again You know, they had a A blip at the beginning of the year, but now that got some guys back They're starting to get lower strikeouts again So me personally when I look at a lower strikeout game against houston It's not going to bother me that much now One thing I've seen with otani is he's throwing a couple more sinkers than he was recently And throwing fewer sliders and to me that's always like a red flag because sinkers are like the bane of strikeouts existence and sliders tend to be In favor of that but still he's at 7.4 strikeouts per game when he's been doing that So I had some concern initially with otani, but you mentioned the matchup against the mariners I think it's a good match up for sure from a strikeout perspective not from a overall perspective but for strikeouts So even though There have been some slight tweaks that had me a little bit concerned I think that being a high high otani is still good. What about you? Did those did those concern you at all those tweaks or no? I mean it does he's trying to figure it out now because You know hit it's a game of cat and mouse hitters adjusted to his sweeper They started keying on it because he was throwing it so often right so I needed something to replace it I know he went to his cutter, which also isn't a tremendously high whiff rate pitch Not like his sweeper is or not like his splitter is too, but I think the splitter has blister concerns So he still uses it strategically. Yeah, I don't I think he's still working on his pitch mixes Pitches are still fantastic. I look at it the same way I look at striders game last night, which was rotten from his standard or pretty much anybody's standards But he still had eight k's Right, you know as long as otani goes deep in the game. He's going to get a lot of And they will let him go as deep as he wants this pitch count I'm always shocked at how his pitch count is given that he's playing baseball every day They still let him go like 110 sometimes. It's absurd. What about castillo because he's on the road here facing the angels and the angel's offense is fine But like I think that he recently has picked back up and only seems like castillo Has like this ramp up phase where the velocity is a little bit lower first part of the year But then we get to may temperatures go up velocity goes up and he goes nuts Is that kind of the thought process with you on him? That is literally the the thought process I've seen a lot of really good signs from castillo. I also think he's an emotional Type pitcher in that he loves the big stage And I think him competing against otani brings out the best in him too And hopefully we'll see, you know 100 mile hour heaters and You know wicked change-ups and nasty sliders from him because uh, you know, he's got it in him and he could do this And you're right. I've I've seen signs of that. You know just being a little more consistent Okay, so the strikeout props rob is looking at for tonight. We got louise castillo over six and a half minus 136 Shohei otani over seven and a half also minus 136 and the kelly one from earlier Plus 116 to go over six and a half now. I mentioned before that vandal has this prop They've been putting up on fridays where it looks at the pitcher to lead the knight in strikeouts And I think that is actually a fantastic and hey, it's up right now. How about that? Same thing I would have had love it. So shohei otani is a favorite. He is plus two 40 And uh louise castillo eight to one, but maryl kelly will be lower on the list He's 21 to one rob. Is that long enough for you to bite there? That is absolutely long enough for me to bite As a matter of fact, I'm looking at this and that would be where I would put my money I would not be surprised to see him have a big k game And 21 come on like give me all that Yeah, and I don't like like glass now. Well, he's got ridiculous stuff. I'm looking at the the Top guys on the list. Yeah, I just you know, it's early in his in his return Facing a tough team. That's that's a big call. Like I don't know how long they even let him stay In the game. Um, so that would be tough I I like him over a lot of those guys ahead of him I agree and it's not again, like you said due to stuff. It's because of ramp up He's still very fresh off the il you want him fresh for october based on the way the rays have played So I think they'll play the long game there now. One guy did want to ask you about here seeing these odds It's a bit shorter than kelly So I might not get you to bite there, but tyler wells also has been a guy who has publicly said I want strikeouts and music to my ears rob when he said that that he's trying to get more strikeouts It's been working Strikeout rate across his past five or six starts is 32 percent royals 24 percent strikeout rate against righties Can I interest you and tyler wells at 19 to one for tonight? Absolutely. I strongly considered him today and my in my caveats I've liked what I've seen out of him and it that would not surprise me It's just he's facing he's going off against some guys who can rack up a lot of k's and and again our tony at one Yeah, that that was you know just looking at looking at it. It's a great match up for otani today and and you know That would be who I'd have as a favorite as well But for longer odds, absolutely like wells Definitely could do it. Okay. So mero kelly is the official one We're seeing some the best value on for today 21 to 1 against the detroit tigers Can't hate on that that is rob freeman. Check him out on twitter at pitching ninja and find him everywhere else peacock mlb.com It'll be on fox and of course here uncovering the spread as well Rob it was a pleasure to have you back on the show for today Enjoy all those strikeouts. Enjoy all the fun matchups for tonight. Enjoy the baseball and we'll talk to you once again next week Absolutely. Hey, good to see you again Absolutely. Thank you rob appreciate it and we'll talk to you again next week again. Check out rob's fantastic work Hopefully we're seeing some mero kelly gifts over tonight on the pitching ninja twitter account looking forward to that as always We'll have robbed it again Next week to talk some more strikeout props because it is always a blast for sure We'll dig into so then there'll be money lines I'm liking for tonight here in just one second But first it is almost time to crown an NBA champion and fan will wants you to be a part of the excitement because right now New customers getting no sweat first bet up to $2,500 that is $2,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win There's no better place to bet all the finals action than america's number one sports book fan duel official sports betting partner of the mba Must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money wager only $10 deposit required refund issued is non-letrable bonus bets that expire in 14 days Restricts and supplies see full terms at fan duel dot com slash sports book Fan duel is offering online sports wagering in kansas under an agreement with kansas star casino llc gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fan duel dot com slash rg in arizona 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in indiana 1 809 with it and wyoming in kansas 1 800 5 2 2 4 700 or in kansas ks gambling health dot com louisiana is 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in massachusetts gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in maryland mv gambling health at orc in west for new york uh 1 8 7 7 8 hoping why our text open why and in west virginia Go to 1 800 gambler god net i'll talk about some mlb money lines for today can only dig up two that i liked for tonight's slate one of them had moved a bit when i was glancing at it earlier on but it is still a value for me the first one is the pirates their money line against the nets is currently minus 1 16 the implied odds of that are 53.7 percent i've got the pirates win odds at 57.9 percent so the gap they're big enough for me to justify diving into the pirates for tonight rich hill starting here for the pirates and he's had some pretty serious issues with hard contact and flyballs he's been throwing more cutters and fewer sliders across his past four starts and in that time he has led up a 43 percent hard hit rate with a 44 percent fly ball rate that's a pretty big concern but strikeout rate is up in that time as well and if you strike guys out it doesn't matter if you hit a lot or if they're making hard contacts they got to make contact first so hill's been pitching a little bit better the pirates facing tylor mcgill the starter here for the mets and mcgill still trying to find his groove hasn't quite gotten there yet across 12 starts 5.27 skill interactive eray a lot of walks not enough strikeouts the pirates in general i think are a fine team honestly there's nothing to be super concerned about especially when you give them a competent pitcher like rich hill they're out there on the bump so again this one has shifted to minus 116 it was minus 110 earlier but i think there's still enough value there to feel good about i'm about uh three and a half percentage points above the implied odds that's a big enough gap for me so i do like the pirates at minus 116 at vandal sportsbook for tonight as always though shop around to make sure you can't get a lingering minus 110 out there somewhere else second money line is one that was good to us earlier on this week that is the cincinnati reds they're on the road taking on the st louis cardinals right now the reds money line is plus 150 so their implied odds to win are 40 percent i've got this came at 47 percent in favor of the reds so i'm pretty far off market which is never a super fun feeling but i also understand why my model is high on the reds ben lively starting here for the reds and i like a lot of what he has done so far he's made four starts and i think some of the numbers for lively or sorry five starts for lively i think some of the numbers for him probably gonna regress a bit because his strikeout number at 22 percent or at his strikeout mark is higher than you would think it would be based on the swinging strike rate he has gotten so i want to bring that down a bit and assume some regression for lively there but the hard hit rate allowed is also pretty good his skill interactive era 3.75 these pitch pretty well facing off against jordan montgomery here montgomery i liked a lot of what he did last year when he came to the the cardinals kind of changed his approach uh was willing to throw his fastball a bit more this year hasn't quite been the same 4.27 skill interactive era for him and seven starts with fewer foreseamers more sinkers and change ups it's fine hard contact rate is still pretty good so he's he's done that one thing but now facing a reds team that is honestly kind of fun with all the the young guys they've added with all the firepower they've added and again ben lively is pitching decently well so the reds money line plus 150 i've got them again around 47 percent to win so i might be too high on them but again some wiggle room there if i am too high to still be above the market so the two money lines i like for today the pirates at minus 116 taking on the mets and then the cardinals or the reds at plus 150 taking on the cardinals that's all that we have here for this show over on covering the spread but again back later on today to break down the belmont stakes with kristina blacker of fan dual tv she of course is on with us before the preakness and she called national treasure to win so hopefully we can duplicate that with kristina and a really tough field for today we'll talk about that later on big thank you once again to rob freeman a true delight to have him back on the show here for today once again follow him on twitter if you're not already at pitching ninja and check out all of his work and again at fendall sports but can check out that daily strikeout uh market because it is a lot of fun huge fan that fendall is offering that market right now if you've got any questions for me i am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fendall podcast network at fendall podcast want to thank you all for tuning in for today good luck to you with your bets for tonight's uh good luck to mero kelly hopefully can rack up that 21 to 1 win for rob we'll talk to you all once again later on today to talk about the belmont this has been covering the spread right here on the fendall podcast network