 Forget the economy, forget the economic reports, forget all that bad news, focus on the price. The inflation of the state balance sheets intrinsically means that there will be more and more upside for digital currencies in general. I think we could make all time new highs maybe by the end of the year, if not this year, at the very least by 2021. What's up, YouTube? My name is Jackson. We've got another great show for you today. I have the pleasure of welcoming trader Alessio Rastani and co-founder of Winchimute Trading, Yoan Turbin. How's it going today, guys? Very good. Nice to have you. I'll talk to you again, Jackson and Yoan. Very good here as well. Good for you. Thanks for inviting us for the chat. Yeah, thanks for having us. I appreciate it. Great. So Alessio, what's your take on Bitcoin short-term price action? What targets are you looking at right now? It's a good question. My first impression after this rally was this is corrective. What does that mean? Simply means that my first impression was that we might drop back down to test the March lows. That was my first kind of gut instinct. I think many people probably thought about the same thing. The way I changed my mind, so here's where I changed my mind. I began to look at the stock market, what the market was doing. So let me show you this as well. So notice that there's a strong correlation. Without a doubt, I don't think anybody would deny this. There's a strong correlation right now between Bitcoin and S&P. So if I were to tell you what I think about Bitcoin, I would have to tell you also what I think about the S&P, that the stock market. I've been very bullish on the stock market for the last few weeks. I would say actually from the end of March, I've been bullish on the stock market. I actually think, and I still do, believe this, that the stock market is likely bottomed. Now, maybe you're wrong on that. We'll see. I made a video recently called The Kiss of Death, which is kind of a sell signal showing that we could drop back down to retest and march lows on the stock market. I don't think that's going to happen at the moment. I don't think it's likely, but if it does, great. But as you can see guys on this chart, without a doubt, S&P and Bitcoin are strongly correlated. You can see they're peaked by the same level, by the same point. They trough by the same point as well. They've been kind of moving in the same inline direction upwards. Almost the movements have been sort of in sync more or less. So going back to the chart of Bitcoin here guys, I got to tell you, I still, at the moment, I got bullish on Bitcoin back towards the end of March, around about here, I would say start of April. Start of April, we got bullish. And in mid-April, I got very bullish on Bitcoin. So in fact, I'll tell you exactly what made me bullish here. What made me very bullish is when this drop occurred, this drop here, into the support zone and then bounced off and closed above these key levels. So, and I would say I remain bullish on Bitcoin as long as we remain above this key support about 6,600 by the way, at the moment. I think we could probably test that 200 moving average here. Better likely we might even go back up and there's some gaps in the CME chart we might fill. I think if I just show the CME chart here, there's this gap here on the CME chart we haven't even filled yet. So maybe we go ahead and fill that gap as well. It's quite possible. Bitcoin doesn't have a habit of going back and maybe filling in some gaps. So that's where I'm looking at things at the moment. And the last thing I'll say is this, from an Elliott Graf perspective, this rally is not, to me is not corrective. It's to me it's actually impulsive. So we've got five waves already in this rally. This five wave rally tells me that we're in a beginning of a major, this to me is wave one of a longer term bull market in Bitcoin. If I'm wrong, fine, then the market will tell us, price will tell us if I'm wrong on this point if we break support levels. But that's my main view on Bitcoin. Thanks, Alessio, for that perspective. Do you have anything to add there, Yoan? So for backgrounds, so we currently trade very much cryptos, what's considered delta ones. We trade futures and spot at Wintermute, but I used to trade macro for a long time. So I traded interest rates and listened to central bankers all day. And there are things that make me reminiscent of 2008 when I look at these sort of correlation when typically you get equities in Bitcoin this time around correlated on the way down. But 2008 was essentially you were diversified. It didn't really help you because everything would go down together, excluding of your CQE and the bonds being bought up by central banks. But the moral of the story is when people lose money in equity and they happen to hold some Bitcoin as well, they get liquidated, they need some money to pay for their debt essentially or to pay for their losses in equities and then they go and have to just go and take the Bitcoins and actually sell them. And I create a lot of auto correlation there across these assets. And it's quite interesting to see that central banks coming in, the states coming in and saying, here's plenty of money, here is essentially a universal income recreated in many countries, turning more socialist than they've ever been. And that actually just, for me, that's the main explanation about the balance back in the equity market and cryptos. I like to believe that the correlation from here would be much less from here and actually just push Bitcoin further just defying actually the fact that if states get more and more debt and then the fiat currencies get depreciated over time, then actually they'll be more and more interest for alternative assets and be more interest and more justification for crypto, crypto space and growth of the crypto space as such. And the crypto space is still so small that I think there's a lot of room on the upside for Bitcoin in particular, but the rest of the cryptos. Now that we've covered the short term, what's your long-term analysis of the Bitcoin market as we head towards the halving and beyond, Johan? I think there's plenty of growth from here. So my usual comparable is the gold market that's about eight to nine trillion. I think Alessio can actually might have better figures and better, more accurate figures than me in the size of the gold market. But there's plenty of uncorrelated returns that can be achieved through Bitcoin, I mean through cryptos in general over time. Yes, as it grows and as bigger and bigger investors coming into the crypto space, there will be some more correlation with equity market and the rest of the financial world. But I think there's the inflation of the state balance sheets intrinsically means that there will be more and more upside for digital currencies in general. And there's plenty of use cases in payments and in everyday life that's actually that are starting to come, so making it more relevant. Alessio, what's your outlook on the long-term success of the Bitcoin market? Well, it's a good question. I was listening to Johan. It's interesting what he was saying. I'm quite interested by his comparison to gold, he was saying personally, I gotta be honest, I still go back to what I was saying earlier in this conversation that I still see this correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market. Now, at some point maybe it'll decouple, who knows? But until there's this correlation, I need to see proof of a decoupling before I can change my mind about that. So that was to say, how do I see the long-term picture on Bitcoin? I'll give you my long-term picture on the stock market which will probably answer your question. I remain bullish on both. So I remain bullish on the stock market. I think we're gonna go significantly higher in the next few years on the stock market which people may laugh at this point. I totally get it because people are saying, what are you talking about, Alessio? Come on, we're in a recession right now. I mean, look at the economy right now. It's going downhill. People are massive, massive unemployment right now. Not to mention the whole crisis of the virus and sorry, I shouldn't have even said the V word. But anyway, the bottom line is that people will look at the economy right now and they think it's ridiculous that anyone could be bullish on the stock market. But actually, I'm taking a contrarian standpoint. There are a lot of things to be bullish about. Number one, usually history has shown that the worst part of the economy is usually when you see a market bottom. Usually a market, there is a lag between the economy and the stock market. So usually the economy goes into recession by the time the market is bottomed. Classic example is 2009. In 2009, we had the worst economic news, probably one of the worst economic news in history, massive unemployment, bankruptcies, GDP numbers were terrible. Similar as right now, I would say right now we've got massive unemployment, as you can see, and terrible numbers. Probably going to have some more terrible numbers, bankruptcies probably as soon as well. But the fact is the market, as you can see, has rallied despite all the bad numbers. The same goes in 2009. 2009, the market went up. Stocks went up 60%, despite all the bad numbers. So I would say forget the economic reports, forget all that bad news, focus on the price. I think we could make all-time new highs maybe by the end of the year, if not this year at the very least by 2021. I actually think by this year we'll make new highs by the end of this year on the stock market. So that could mean that we might make new highs or not all-time new highs, but we could see Bitcoin above 10,000 by the end of the year. Now, don't get me wrong here. We're not going to go in a straight line. Of course, I'm expecting volatility. Of course, I'm expecting retracement pullbacks. It's not going to go in a straight line. We're going to see a lot of glitches along the way. But my long-term target, as you're saying, by the end of this year, we buy 2020, 2021. Yeah, I think Bitcoin will be in the range of over 10,000, probably in the 10 to 15,000 range by the end of this year. So that's what I'm thinking. Yolan, do you also see this discrepancy between the stock market and the economy? So this is more a former macro trader that speaks now. Is it, I think you can see the stock market or you can see financial markets like a prediction machine. So what they're trying to do is you're trying to be, what you're pricing now, what you see when you look at your stock price is very much what people think is going to be in one or two years time. And if you're ahead of, if you're able to predict that better, then you will see good buy or sell opportunities. And it's very much, this continuous assessment that happens is, I completely agree with this. Well, for me, that's the best way to explain the decoupling between or the non-synchronization of economy and the markets per se. Just really see it as a prediction machine and we see this as, okay, if it's going up now, it's because people think economy will be better in one, two, three years time as such. And they wanna be ahead of that curve. So they wanna buy things now. So moving back into the crypto markets, are there any altcoins that are standing out to you at the moment, Yolan? There are a few actually. So Ethereum as an infrastructure play, I think it's come back in out of favor here and there. I quite like, for a long time, I quite like EOS, not necessarily always in terms of the project, the quality of the project, but it's because they've done good and bad things with their money. But I like the fact that my perception of it is they raise so much money through their eternal ICO that there's some sort of flaw around the one and a half, two dollars. Why I always feel that it's a good opportunity to go and buy some and there's enough upside tools, I don't know, seven, eight dollars or so. I think it bounds back actually. So through the sell-off in mid-March, it came a bit under the two dollars and just bounced back off to probably about 2.7 nowadays. Great, Alessio, which altcoins are you keeping your eye on at the moment? First one I wanted to show you guys is Chainlink. I mentioned Chainlink because every time I talk about cryptos on my channel, on my YouTube channel, people always say, talk about Chainlink. So I get a lot of comments about this all the time. So I just want to mention I'm not promoting any of these cryptos. Obviously they come with a huge amount of risk, but again, these are the ones that I get asked about a lot, Chainlink is one of them. What I like about this particular chart of Chainlink, which is that it seems to have already put in a five-wave pattern, a five-wave move. It's above its key averages, above its 21, above its 200 moving average, the green line. The green line is a 200. So unlike Bitcoin, it is actually above its 200 moving average there on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, it's also looking pretty strong as well. So yeah, I quite like this one. I think that it's already started the five-wave move up. We might see a pullback or some kind of retracement probably in the next few weeks, but I think that pullback likely will become maybe a buying opportunity for people who might, you know, people who like this particular crypto. You know, and that probably become wave two on the chart. I'm also looking at Monero. Monero is one that I've always mentioned before, quite a few times. Let me just bring the chart up here so I can have a look at it, XMR. Yeah, I was talking to Dominic Frisbee, author of the book, what's the book called now? Bitcoin, The Future of Money. And he said this is one of his favorites. So there are some people actually looking at this. Again, Monero is considered to be one of the cryptos that has a benefit in terms of its privacy features. So from a fundamental perspective, there is quite attractive. And as far as a technical perspective, I quite like it too. It's above its 200 daily moving average there. It's above it some of its key moving averages right there on this chart. Could it still have a retracement or maybe a pullback down to 50? Yeah, it could. I think a pullback to 50 probably will become the next low. I think it should, I think as long as it remains at 50 there, as long as Monero holds about 50, bulls remain in control here on Monero. If it falls below 50, I'll become worried because falling below 50 opens the door for a drop down to the March lows on Monero. So that's what I'm looking at there. I'm also looking at dash, dash I quite like here as well. I gotta be honest, dash chart doesn't look that great right now. It doesn't seem to have put in the five wave move. So I don't like this chart right now. Neo is the Chinese back currency, crypto currency I should say. Neo doesn't look good either because it's still holding below 200. It's still below it's 100 as well. And the movement doesn't interest me. The movement looks corrective in nature rather than impulsive. So yeah, I would wait for Neo to get above $10 for me to become interested there. But until then I'm avoiding this one for the moment unless it has a retest. So that's what I have there on these cryptos. That's all I got to say. Great. Well, thank you everyone out there. Make sure you're trading safely. Thanks for coming on the show guys. Yeah, thanks Jackson. Thank you. Thanks Yohan. Thanks Yohan. Thanks Yohan. Cheers. Thank you everyone for watching. That was trader Alessio Rustani and co-founder of Wintermute Trading, Yohan Turpin. My name is Jackson and if you enjoyed the video, hit that like button and subscribe to our YouTube channel. Cointelegraph, like, subscribe and hodl.