 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire comm where today We are getting you set for the NFL Divisional market by talking to Aaron Dolan of fan dual getting her read on the most interesting Division in football at her favorite futures bets for this year. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joint here as always by dr. Ed Fang You can find his work over at the power Inc.com Ed It is football time as it is officially August now the Hall of Fame game coming up on Thursday But I'm having a hard time detaching myself from the Olympics because I thought the the swimming is gonna be awesome And it was but then track came on and I'm just fully convinced the track is awesome, too So I try have like this four-year gap where I forget how fun the Olympics are and then slowly remind myself throughout the two weeks Oh, yeah, this is this is actually fun to tune into Yeah, it's been a lot of fun for me, too I mean getting up every morning and getting some track finals 7 a.m. 8 a.m. Eastern time has been awesome and the 400 meter hurdle finals were both Incredible. Yeah, I talked about it a little bit in my email newsletter I talked a little bit about it on the show, but I suspected that a world record would go down Possibly you think it would go down by almost a second. No, absolutely not. So it was kind of incredible so I mean I had money on right Benjamin and When I was watching the race, I wasn't looking at the time or anything I didn't even look at the clock when when they when they finished I was just you know, it was a little bit upset that Benjamin didn't win He was right there at the end Warhol was just great, you know and Benjamin broke the world record by more than a half second And and got this over great performance. He was pretty emotional after the race You know, he's clearly the guy who thought he could win and he definitely could have won, you know and but You know it was interesting Like he said he said he chopped his steps a little bit Like he kind of screwed up his steps a little bit in the beginning part of the race And that's that cost him the gold medal and and that's the challenge of the hurdles, right? You want to go faster You want to go all out and you can kind of see on the second and third hurdle Like you just didn't have it and then they were interviewing Warholm as well and he was like, yeah, it was perfect race for me So I think we're going to see a lot more from these two the world championships in Oregon are only a year away um And oh and we got to talk about the women which was as phenomenal a great race between the two Americans Sydney McLaughlin and Delilah Muhammad McLaughlin broke her world record only by 0.44 seconds just such a You know after the men's race, but she was incredible But the thing about that race is that the the Dutch runner Femke Bol was with the two of them for 350 meters So it really looked like there could have been some upset city But but it didn't happen So just I mean, I think just two of the best races I've ever seen and uh, it's been a lot of fun Well watching the sorry, I don't remember his name the Norwegian guy Uh, the harshly Warholm Warholm watching him Go over the hurdles. It was like they weren't there. It was so smooth The the fluidity with which he like jumped over them. It was absurd. It looks just looks kind of looks like art basically Yeah, that that comes from a lot of practice. Yeah But it was a a really fun race and I thought I thought he was toast once Benjamin caught him He was like right there, but then Warholms like no, I got the afterburners man. We're good And sprinted away and like I know you had money on on Benjamin, but like And I was rooting for benjamin because you know America Yeah, America, but like To see him pull off that race and how close it was And to break the world record by that much It was still fun even though the person I was pulling for didn't win And I think that's the fun thing about the olympics you can see Incredible stuff and appreciate even if it's not the person you were pulling for Yeah, absolutely. And and and from a betting perspective, you know, I had Benjamin at plus 175 and you have a race that close. I mean There's only so and the guy breaks the record world record by more than a half second. There's there's only so So much upsetness you can have over that. It was a great race. You just enjoy it The reaction on twitter was great. Yeah and Yeah, hopefully we'll have some more races towards the end of this week as well that will uh, They're probably won't be that good But we'll hopefully have some more races that that will be good Well, there was one that was good for you which we're gonna talk about here in just second and covering the past But as a reminder, we do have erin dolin on today find her on twitter at erin kate dolin She of course does stuff for us here at fan duel We're gonna talk about nfl divisional odds for 2021 talk to her about the colt situation with karsten wendz quintan nelson Both going down with foot surgery and get her read on these divisions heading into this week If you're looking for some player prop discussion We had jay j. Zachary sonon Last week to talk nfl player props his process for making projections and his favorite props for 2021 You can find that by searching for a covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well before we talk to erin though Gotta go back to last week and talk about a winner for ed in stevell chase Covering the past All right, so last week you're on covering the spread ed you were talking about stevell chase educating me on what stevell chase is And it sounds like it kind of nailed the analysis here because okay Tell me how to say this sefian el bakali I believe that's i'm gonna let you say it because that sounded good enough, but yeah You had sefian el bakali to win gold the men's stevell chase el bakali was plus 175 to win You also were talking about a hedge and how You were talking about trying to identify Someone you could get access to a powerful country for a long price So you said benjamin keegan kind of an interesting name at 13 to 1 And both runners meddled the ucast and el bakali a plus 175 for gold keegan got brawn So You killed a bear ed. I feel like we need more stevell chase on the on the show Well, so first of all, I forgot that I talked about that last week I thought I talked about timothy chariot, right, but that must that was two weeks ago Yeah, so that must have been two weeks ago. I completely forgot. I talked about that steeple So yeah, el bakali was the fastest in the race and he ended up winning It uh, is really nice when that works out um The women's steeple chase was a big hot mess so I actually thought the kenyans would would go one two and that uh with kai ang and and uh Kept coach, uh That that didn't happen at all. So the women's steeple chase this morning Was incredible and that american courtney ferricks took off with about a kilometer to go and she gapped the field and uh A ugandan woman ended up chasing her down, but she got silver which is an incredible performance Uh for horror. She's always been kind of the bridesmaid to emma coburn Who's been the dominant america american the one that everyone thought Was going to meddle or potentially win Uh coburn had just had a bad race just jogged it in. Uh, just wasn't there. So, uh, yeah, no, I'm glad I hit the men What wasn't so wasn't so great on the women, but that race was just kind of nuts Yeah, I mean the men's the men were the only ones you talked about here So no one would have to know, you know, uh, but that one worked out well for you And it was el bakali the one you talked about where he lost a race because the bell was on the wrong lap for him No, so that was keegan. Okay. Okay. Yeah and So this is a crazy stat kenya has never not lost a steeple chase Since we put a man on the moon So that was the first time that uh a kenyan had lost So there are two olympics in there in which a kenyan didn't win But that's because kenya boycott of those two olympics. Okay, so, um, you know, I mean they got a bronze Yeah, you know, it was a pretty pretty tough field But uh, but that that was the kind of dominance that we were looking at with kenya and it's uh, Yeah, it came to an end and I think finding You know longer odds access to kenya was a smart way to play things But also finding a guy who may have been under value based on the results for things outside his control The thought process there very good and got close there at bronze But hey got the win either way with el bakali So a nice analysis there by ed more track and field coming up later on in the show from ed as well before though Though we got to talk to erin dolin find her on twitter at erin kate dolin check her out over at fandal We're talking about divisional odds with her in just one second at first Hey baseball fans fandal has a fun promotion going on called five dollar dinger tuesdays All you have to do is place a 25 plus dollar bet on it to hit a home run prop on any tuesday mlb game You'll receive a five dollar site credit 25 max for each home run hit in the game by either team regardless If your bat wins or loses head over to fandal on tuesdays play the five dollar dinger contest Must be 21 plus and present colorado iowa illinois indiana michigan new jersey pennsylvania tennessee virginia or west virginia refund issued as a non-withdrawable site credit that expires in seven days max refund 25 dollars terms applied gambling problem called 1800 gambler in colorado 1805 224 700 in iowa 1800 bets off in indiana 1809 with it For confidential help michigan 1802 707 117 in tennessee call the red line 1809 979 or in west virginia 1800 gambler dot net Covering the present Let's bring erin dolin into covering the spread to talk about the nfl futures market erin It is football season officially with training camps underway. How you do it today? I'm great and so excited for the nfl season I feel like i've been waiting for this for many many months now, so i'm excited. It's about to start Yeah, and it's there's been some down time for you between the end of basketball wrapping up And between when nfl is starting so have you had time to kind of like Rest given the crazy sports schedule we've had here recently or has it just been you know research and getting set football this whole time Well, it's been a lot of research, but it's also been a lot of downtime which i'm not good at So i'm trying to force myself to try to relax which then leads me to tiktok Which then leads to wasting a lot of time So there's been a mix, but i'm trying to relax because i know it's going to be crazy until basically february Do you like tiktok is like i haven't like i always see tiktoks on twitter because i'm a big twitter guy and I see tiktok outside the context of tiktok and they always seem very strange from not viewing them like consecutively and stuff like that so like to me I I can't get it like i respect it in the content, but like It they seem just so different from other stuff i consume It's so different, but you can get so much more engagement and views so quickly and following so The problem is though if you open the app like for me if i don't open the app i'm fine But if i open the app it's a good four hours Like i'm not addicted like last night i was on it till one one o'clock in the morning I was like i'm going to bed by 10 and i was on till one Right i gotta have some discipline, but rough luckily twitter is upsetting enough where i can usually close it pretty quickly That's the one plus side of twitter being the worst Let's talk about some nfl futures markets here and talk about divisional betting and its training camp erin we see a lot of tweets We see a lot of headlines and stuff like that and obviously injuries matter for the futures market That does impact a lot of things talk about the cults in a second But there can be a lot of other noise and it's hard to pick through what's noise What's important so What do you actually glean from those practices and trying to decide how you want to view a team in the futures market Or do you just have to kind of Ignore most of it and try to find just the very few morsels that do matter Well, I feel like as a journalist your goal is obviously to find those story lines provide people with some type of unbiased information So in terms of the practices I think you need to make sure you're following the articles and information that's pertinent to what you're looking for Some of the advice obviously coming from the sharp angle podcast by warren sharp is you don't just want to have somebody say Oh, such and such player looks good at practice and then go bet of futures on them I think I should also preface this response with obviously People that bet into the futures market might be different than people that bet game to game So for me, it's a very long season So it's kind of a mix futures aren't my favorite bets to place But in terms of the futures market and deciding where there is value I look at the schedule players added look at how they did last year any of the important changes that they've made But I think a good example for this is when I was doing research for this show in particular the titans To win the afc south last season. They were great on offense terrible in defense. So what did they change where they've brought on bud depris? So then I looked up as Basically an example of this. How is he doing? Oh, he just got off the cobit list which then segues into the harder Fill it as well for the nfl Which is we're going to have to deal with cobit once again and that can obviously impact the futures market But I think each team is a tad different when looking into the futures market Meaning they could have a new qp new head coach. So I think going and searching for pieces of information that you feel Is necessary to then make a futures bet is more important than just scanning all the information and hoping to kind of gather What could happen? So basically you're pre selecting what things you want to know and then seeking out that info. Is that correct? Yes Yeah, that's interesting. I mean what what were your final conclusions on tenancies defense because that's the team I've been looking at as well I mean I have some real questions about the secondary but what are you thinking? Well, they should technically be better since they were so terrible last year But they're so good on offense and they can score. So that's kind of What the it comes down to but they're going to have a different play caller this year They're not going to have arthur smith anymore. So that can make an impact But more so just looking at them. I love the titans But every article I've read is saying fade the titans and take the under on their win total So for that reason it's the one thing that I keep reading consistently I am betting the over and fading everyone Just in case it does happen and I can say hit it Well, I'm glad about that because my numbers say titans over nine and a half as well And I've been hesitant to actually like pull the trigger in part because I had concerns around the defense But brandy could do a good study at over on number fire about how teams who have Outlierly bad defenses one year tend to outperform their win their win totals next year because of what you alluded to They can't be that bad again for the most part So I think that's pretty interesting with them. And I've been Just hesitant to actually, you know Pull the trigger on betting the over nine and a half because I do worry about those things But I at least feel better knowing that you're on the same page, too Yeah, well just a little bit I mean, you're looking at a defense that's going to rely on rookie jc horn to kind of hold up that secondary So I'm going to fade both you guys. I'm going I I'm going against Tennessee. Um, all right But but Aaron, let's move on because I'm really interested in your opinion about the cold situation Carson Welles is out and definitely he's uh, he's getting surgery And I guess this gets us right back to the titans because there's minus 120 to win the afc south Last time I checked vandal sports book. Um, are you seeing any value in these division odds? So for one, I just want to say don't see value on the texans Which is Sean Watson situation right now and not to mention texans have a terribly hard projected schedule The jags for me. No go. We have rookie Trevor Lawrence first year NFL head coach urban Meyer So despite them having an easier schedule, I've just crossed both them off Of course, that leaves us with the Colts titans Although it is a weak division technically Tennessee will face more difficult schedule. We kind of talked about this, but I still like they're over for win totals They're going to face NFC west teams and afc east plus the chief stealers and the saints So that's pretty tough then for the Colts. They have a tough five games to start this season Including two meetings with the titans in the first eight weeks So in terms of the titans, we kind of talked about this. They were great offensively ranked fourth and past efficiency third and run efficiency eighth and explosive past efficiency tenth and explosive run efficiency They also ranked second in touchdowns per game, but they struggled really hard defensively They did add bud to pre like I mentioned They also added holio jones and I also talked kind of already about this arthur smith is heading to the falcons So we'll have to see if Todd downing does want to continue the heavy pass offense Then as for the Colts I As you know, as you can see from the helmet behind me M and eagles fans So he's not really going to be bill of rivers and he does have history with frank right and philly But he needs to be 100 healthy. You also have that confidence, which I don't think it's great to start off with a foot injury No pun intended there. Um, so to circle back. I do think there's value on the Colts If you trust wence, I personally don't I never would he's missed 13 games in his career due to injury Including the playoffs So i'm going to stay With the titans here get them while you can because tennessee could have three winnable games in the first five games So the line can move out even further as opposed to the Colts would be playing the seahawks rams titans Miami and baltimore in the first five games and those five games they Probably they might not have karsten wence quinton nelson or eric fisher And I done a piece for number fire pinpointing teams with tough early season schedules And they were like the team that stood out the most as being a team that had a tough go I either was underdogs their first five games to begin with and then suddenly That was before the quinton nelson injury before the karsten wence injury that made things a lot grimmer So I I agree. I think that there may still be valiant titans. They are in that schedule as well So they actually do benefit directly from the quinton nelson karsten wence injuries And I find that super interesting. Let's let's let's pretend that wence had not gotten hurt What would have been your confidence level in him going to this office given you've watched him a lot, you know from His days of the eagles, what would have been your confidence level before All this bad stuff out. I mean he would he's going to be put in a better situation with the colts Regardless because the eagles had an insane amount of injuries. The team was not getting along. There's a coaching issue There was a quarterback issue. I just think karsten wence is a do or die situation for him at this point This season he needs to play lights out and starting off, of course with foot surgery does not help Obviously he has experience with frank right like I said, but I just his confidence level like he's not a fill-up rivers He doesn't come in with the craziest You know stat lines, obviously I think everyone keeps talking about his mvp season that was when he was on the road to that before his injury But it's been a few years. I think we need to wrap it up with that kind of conversation And maybe he's just not a qb1 Yeah, and that was also Situation where they had like these crazy numbers on third and long Not really sustainable stuff going on there. So I think that it's smart to Don't overlook that so let's talk about his old team here at the eagles and talk about them They're plus 470 to win the nfc east and that's actually the shortest odds of any team with the Longest odds in their division. So this looks like the nfc east is shaping it to be a bit of a toss-up Cowboys are plus 130 Do you see any value on any teams here in the nfc east divisional odds or too close to call for you? So the nfc least only needed seven Wins last year to win this division shout out to the washington football team to not expect that I expected to be one of the worst divisions the nfl once again The birds and cowboys have an easier schedule projected of course as opposed to the washington football team and giants For dalas starting off here. Dak's shoulder strain worries me already especially after his compound fracture dislocated right ankle that he suffered in week five last season But let's not forget he had 11 turnovers in those first five games with him under center He went two for three in those first five games as well We had annie dawn step in that was a nightmare. He was can cuss ben denucci then had his step in not ideal Their defense was so so bad. They actually spent their first six draft picks on defense this year So that should hopefully help the cowboys, but it's too much of a gamble for me to bet on them Even though on paper they should technically win this division that leaves us of course three others Washington football team has a tougher schedule relies on ryan fits patrick philly's jailen herds nick siriani question marks for me still But the birds are coming off a terrible injury season Like i mentioned so they ranked last in offensive blind health and collective receiver help So then for the giant standy dime third year getting safe on barkley back I don't feel great about that team either. So personally give a lot of markets. You can bet on the nfl I would stay away from this division. That's my advice here It is so terrible and it is a true gamble even though it's short odds It seems like there's value on everybody, but it this will be another division. It's just a toss up And that's that's part of the skill in gambling is knowing when not to pull the trigger too, right? Do not bet this this market at all I'm ready to make a video about that today Yeah, I mean the way you're breaking it down. It's it's interesting to me because like clearly two teams have the better quarterback situation dallas and and uh in washington, uh, Fitzpatrick is you know, not elite but um I think that kind of that that kind of me pushes me that way in some sense, especially with the young washington defense as well um So yeah, I'm trying to stay away from this as well. I feel like ryan Fitzpatrick won't be able to play the same way He played in miami yeah, he's he's uh The way that I view it is journeyman quarterbacks are often journeymen for a reason And that's the hesitancy I have like when I'm making my projections for their passing efficiency is I can't go too high because Right journeymen for a reason like that's that's the way that I that's the hesitancy I run into But but journeyman actually gives you some stability, which I think is probably going to be good for that franchise, right? I mean, you're not So we're not doing haskens there and and what they had alex smith. I guess alex smith was kind of a journeyman taylor heineke, man Anyway, you see a situation like nick foals where they only have magic for like a certain amount of time true and then it's Kind of a bust. Yep. Yeah, well nick foals. Yeah, we'll never leave our collective conscious The nfc west is pretty interesting too and we're talking about the east and how it's interesting there But I think it's different with the west because there aren't as many open question marks with each team here so you can kind of a better read on this division the 49ers You were talking about schedule a lot. They benefit from a schedule. They're plus 185 the rams are plus 195 cox plus 270 Do you have anyone standing out here in this division at the current odds? So, of course, we go from the worst division to the hardest division The nfc west is the only division to have three teams as favorites to make the playoffs So toughest division by far each team I think stands out for different reasons. So 49ers sit as favorites Even after a disastrous season due to injury They're projected to be the best in the division under jimmy g and then obviously i've been reading great reports about trade Lance everybody's talking about him plus kyle shunhan is no rookie at this thing either Then for the rams They're obviously going to be seeing seemingly a threat especially in terms of the odds makers eyes But I just wanted to know that matthew stafford has not won a playoff game with the lions in 12 seasons Seasons oh and three which obviously this is a totally different situation different team But la is really relying on him hard this year and then as for the seahawks rossill wilson One of the best quarterbacks plus the defense will pick up But there is the issue of is there going to be that team chemistry because obviously he was a little bit unhappy with the Organization during this off season from some reports We read and then a lot of people that I've been reading also love the cardinals who are right in the pack in terms of odds to When the nfc outright I think there's value of course in the cardinals of plus six hundred if you think carlo murray and the new additions will be helpful It's but it is a long shot for a reason and that's why i'm kind of staying away from that I think health is going to be the biggest competitive advantage in this division But I would still take the 49ers now plus money because they play the lions and the eagles in the first two games And that line is going to move out if they win those two right off the bat And I still think right now plus money it'll be good to get them and I truly do think they'll win this division Do you have any concerns about I mean obviously the reports are that trail answer is looking great at camp But obviously it gets a little different when you're playing real nfl defenses Would that change your mind if they announced them as the starter tomorrow? It would a little bit But I I mean I think they're going to start jimmy g without a question If he goes in and then doesn't play as well or if something happens at least they have a backup That will be good enough to play these teams I think that what that does is it gives them a floor a good floor in the sense that they have if you have options and If something happens with russ If something happens what the staffer has already happened in practice when he hit his thumb on some guy's helmet, you know The floor for the 49ers is quite high and I find that pretty enticing for sure Let's talk here about in a division that I have not that yet because I have no way Idea how to read it because I personally don't love the browns My numbers don't like them as much partly because you know rough defense last year trying to project out what that will look like The ravens and the browns the favorites in the afc north the ravens plus 120 Browns plus 160 then the Steelers kind of lurking back there a plus 450 So what's your read on the afc north right now? So obviously off the bat crossing off the bangles, although I do love Joe burrow crossing off the Steelers They're not going to replicate what they did last season. So with the browns and the ravens I actually love the browns So the ravens finished 11 and five last season one of the best rushing attacks and one of the most dangerous offenses in league But i'm going to cleveland based on the fact that they're projected to have one of the easiest schedules in nfl The browns also have the most explosive offense with a quarterback on a rookie deal in 2020 We know how great they were they had so much success And I just think considering their entire offensive line is coming back nick chubb cream hunt They were great odell beckham is going to be back after missing nine games due to injury I think the browns can get it done a plus 160 for sure to win this division I do always love betting on the ravens But I think it's going to come a point where we're going to see a down slide because they need more pieces around the marjaxon So I think with that one what's interesting There is you're talking about the additions to the ravens and it's not just the fact that they haven't beefed up But they actually lost orlando brown their right tackle He was the left tackle last year was going to be their their right tackle this year once again So they have added a reshot baton sammy walkins, but you know, it's it's depending on new guys to come in there and potentially Be key contributors. That's why I haven't actually bet the rave is a plus 120 and I agree that I like betting the ravens I think it's fun to root for the marjaxon. I want to Not root against him because it scares me But I think that it was just so hard to To pull the trigger on the browns at plus 160 because I was worried about the raven That's what kind of pushed me away from the division But I think that plus 160 is a pretty fair number to get on cleveland I think that if I were to bet the browns I think this is the preferred market for me rather than their wind total Which is to me that the wind total seems a bit too high for me to bite there. I think it's like 10 and a half right now Yeah, that seems very high. I mean, maybe it's just overinflated from how well they played Last season. I'm a little bit surprised by the Steelers being back plus 460 that seems I would assume it'd be more in the 200 300 range just considering how great they did play last season I mean, I think we're going to see terrible regression from them, but still I was a little surprised by that Erin we talked about four divisions. We have four other divisions that we have not covered individually Is there any value that you are seeing in those other divisions? So in terms of the other divisions, I kind of just wanted to point out some of the markets that are on the fandom sports book Because maybe that will help people I want to start off with wind totals Dallas under nine and a half games. Dallas lines are usually overinflated They are 14 and seven to the under since 2000 in 21 seasons. They've hit the over seven times Only the Jags have been worse then for Seattle. We kind of already talked about them But I also like they're over nine and a half with russia qb dynamic weapons outside I think they could hit that over also at reading warren sharps guide I learned that Seattle has never won fewer than nine games in a season There's one at double digits in eight of nine seasons with ross So i'm banking on that and then another random market that I think you can bet on Because of course there's some different ones that are on the fandom sports book If you dig there is the worst regular season record I think there's value with the texans of plus 200. They only won four games last year They have one of the toughest schedules and their team totals at four and a half right now Which is so so low but considering that just sean watson Issue I mean he did rank first the NFL and passing efficiency on early downs last year But still there's a lot of things swirling with them and I think of plus 200 you could get that and hit And there is no chance he's starting this year based on the way they've been playing things in training camp and Honestly, it makes sense. So uh, we'll see how things play out there But that is erin dole and we'll talk more about the seahawks later on the show as well So more seahawks love coming up in just a bit. Make sure you follow erin on twitter at erin Kate dolin and check her out over at vandal.com erin We appreciate the time once again and good luck to you as a gear football season Hopefully we'll talk to you once again here soon. Of course. Thanks for having me Covering the future Big thank you once again to erin dolin for swinging by and talking about nfl divisional futures And one thing we didn't dwell on there, but I think that she brought up that is smart once again We're betting on if a future is knowing when to bet a market That's in the whalecapper talks about a lot your dinsik a lot when we have them on the show Looking at the schedule and identifying The proper time to buy into a market That's why I had to piece up a number of fires mentioned Looking at schedules when things are tough when they're easier etc etc So you know, hey If the eagles start off with a really tough stretch do not bet them Before that stretch is done in the hopes of getting a better number And I think last year too with the Texans you knew they had the ravens the chiefs And I think it was the stealers their first three games and that was going to be tough So if you thought that you wanted the Texans hold off and Maybe you can avoid calamity, which is what they ran into So I think a good to get that reminder as always when talking the futures market of Identifying the proper time to go into that market Yeah, absolutely. I think that I think that's obviously very important. Um, it's honestly something I'm not particularly good at looking at and so I'm going to try to be better That Texan team was interesting last year because I don't know if I talked about it on the show But I mean, I certainly bet them over seven and a half wins. Yeah Clearly didn't get there with their their nice four win total But a lot of the numbers suggested they were about a seven win team So, uh It's going to be a lot different story this year. Obviously with the uncertainty around to Sean Watson And uh, well actually you just stopped there. Yeah, they've had him playing defensive back During training camp. So very clear. He's not in their plans at quarterback anymore Let's move now to covering the future. I'll talk about the NFL on my side of things bad You want to do some more track and field and with the way the steeple chase went? Why not? Let's dive back in talking about the men's 5000, which is a very long race. Uh, what do you see in there? Oh, it's not the longest. That's that's short compared to the marathon, right? Well, they do a marathon, which is Uh, an event of its own. Um, there there's actually some odds on the marathon Which is which is pretty interesting But let's stick to the 5000 because I think this is a really interesting race So there's a guy named kateer from spain. Uh, that's the betting favorite in this and he's really interesting because he was terrible before 2021 And he's come into 2021 and run some really fast 1500s run some really fast 5000s You know probably should be the favorite and uh, you know, there's always questions when someone all of a sudden gets Really good. It's like he found the super sit serum that made captain america who he was um And there's always questions about whether uh, I mean There's always questions about whether any runner can kind of sustain like this short term success So i'm a little bit more interested in betting on the guys that have had a longer track record of success And in this case, it's the ugandans. Uh, so jacob chili mo is the second Uh runner at plus 230 He's an incredibly fast finisher incredibly talented guy finished third in the 10 000 And uh, I think is a guy that can certainly win this race and then josh would ship the guy is another ugandan who is uh It's interesting. So this guy like shattered the world records in the 5 and 10 k last year. Uh, basically solo type runs Uh, clearly probably the most talented guy that is going to run a distance event But he's a little hurt. Uh, he actually revealed, uh, they we kind of had some questions about his fitness He ended up getting second in the 10 k And it was it was a kind of thing where he ran pretty well But he just he just let he just let a guy get away from him and he couldn't quite chase him down At the end this guy's still the most talented guy out there. He also revealed after that race He's he's dealing a little bit with the heel injury So I like the chances for the ugandans I bet chep the guy at plus 4 30 and if you're going to watch this race if you're going to spend 12 minutes of your life Actually watching this race you want to see the ugandans push the pace You want to see them run the kick out of keteer? Uh, they did not do that in the 10 000. They just kind of jogged and and made it a kicker's race Probably do the humidity. This is their last race of the olympics. So Their strategy should be to just push the pace and in an ideal world They're 10 meters ahead of everyone else with a lap to go both of them And and it's essentially over that that's the ideal situation if they if they let it come down to a kicker's race We'll see I still think they can win, but maybe they're not the favorite Because keteer does have the fastest 1,500 meter time So yeah, I would go with the ugandans. Uh, you can get those. I just got those unfandled sports book And uh, yeah, we'll go with that with chep the guy Do you feel it's an advantage that it's his final race given the injury or is that a disadvantage given He's been on the heel more often recently Yeah, well, I mean these guys don't really land on their heels. So, um, I don't know how much that affects him He looked pretty good in the 10 000. Right. Um, but it's certain but You know like he's clearly not where he was a year ago Which is a bummer because it's it's an olympic year and it was kind of the same thing we saw with Noah Lyles So he was an american that ran the 200 and this man dominated that event two years ago And he's just not in the same shape. So he got a bronze this year So so yeah, I mean things are definitely, um, you know, if it were if we're 12 months ago Chep the guy would be minus 300. Right But it's not Um, but I still think you get it done. I I'm still um, I'm still going to go with uh, the guys that have have more of a proven track record Even if they're slightly off their game And I think that the important thing with something like this is you don't want to double count an injury Like the injury is the reason he's plus 4 30 it seems like So if you say he's plus 4 30, but he's hurt. Well, he's plus 4 30 because he's hurt So I think that it's important not to double count that Yeah, I mean he was plus 400 in the 10,000 before we knew he was actually injured So so some of it is performance related. Um, but uh But I I still think you can get it done. I think I think it's the right move to go with the condoms here Okay, well, we'll see if Ed's heater in uh in the running events can stick I was joshua chep to guide to win a plus 4 30 for the men's 5 000 for my cover in the future I'm a toxin NFL and I want to go to our subject for today with erin and talk about divisional odds and We talked about the seahawks last week. We're talking about with jj about why You know, they may be more past heavy than expected They may be faster than expected and why that makes rustle Wilson an interesting mvp bet They also came up when I was looking at teams with a bunch of close games Basically, which teams are potentially the most subject to volatility this year and the seahawks are one of those teams They have nine games this year where I have their win probability between 45 and 55 percent There is this famous kevin clark tweet from the ringer where he says How is every seahawks game so chaotic basically and he gets retweeted every time the seahawks are in a crazy game We're probably going to see that tweet a lot this year based on this that that nine toss up game number Is tied with the rams for the most in football the 49ers and cardinals The other teams the nfc west are tied at the vikings for third with seven toss ups in their schedule The seahawks have a win probability between 40 and 60 percent and 12 of their 17 games, which basically means They are volatile and I think that's a good thing here. That means if they Can't close out games They could have a really poor record or it could be really good and with rustle wilson I have faith in their ability to hit the high end of the range of outcomes And they also had one of their games get easier because they faced the colton week one They made you without karsten wenz quintan nelson eric fisher They opened his two point underdogs, which I thought was kind of weird to begin with but now They're three point favorites I've got the seahawks basically in a dead heat atop the nfc west with the rams and 49ers But they're plus 270 to win the division while both those teams are shorter than plus 200 So I'm going to bet on rustle wilson and take the seahawks here a plus 270 to win the nfc west I have found better numbers elsewhere. I think plus 275 at river. So If you have access to a better number, I would take that but even at plus 270 I think the seahawks are a good bet to win the nfc west because they've got rustle wilson And they've got volatility in their schedule And I think this is something that that I try to focus on is identifying good volatility volatility is a Rough word in general, but I think in betting if we can find Volatile situations where a team is capable of hitting the high end of the range of outcomes Find markets that will be advantageous to them I think that the nfc west odds of the seahawks are an example where They could stink if they can't take advantage in close games But they could also be really good given how close all their games are going to be Yeah, my policy is not to bet against rustle wilson And Yeah, I mean I agree with all the things you're saying I haven't done the deep dive into their defense yet Which has been an issue in the past, but But certainly like That game that week one game against the colts I I've actually kind of never trusted the colts defense over the last couple years A lot of people have been more higher on the talent that they have on that side of the ball And they were actually pretty good for the first part of the season With the forest balkan uran and zavier rhodes. They really fell off towards the end rhodes is an older player so Yeah, I've kind of never trusted the defense I mean, I kind of like seattle to get that done there and obviously there are odds of getting that done have gone up But um, yeah, and if you want to know you're that much more likely to win the division Right, and it's not just nelson not just wence. Uh, ryan kelly their center is very good, too He's out for a couple weeks. Darius lennard one of their star the v star of their defense is banged up right now Xavier rhodes is on the covet list right now. So Yeah, I mean they've got they've got a lot of stuff going on You should be back from the covet list Right, he should but like, you know, we've seen long-term effects if it's actually a positive test. So it's concerning and It's important not to overreact to injuries But they've got a domino type effect where they have their toughest part of the schedule is their first five games if they go You know hypothetically oh and five, which I think I have like six percent odds that are happening Like it could snowball and I think that they are if we're identifying teams that have really low floors as a result of potentially tough beginnings The cults are one the eagles are another where things could get out of hand pretty quickly if if if things aren't going their way Right and and I feel like those are two teams They they have very low floors because of uncertain quarterback situations And they were two teams I was looking for reasons not to bet to begin with so I will happily take those outs And avoid them as a result of the early season schedule That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread big Thank you once again to erin dolin for swinging by and breaking down her thoughts on these divisional odds find her on twitter At erin k dolin and check out all of her work over at fan duel ed What is going on for you this week over the power ink? Yeah, the power ink get my free email newsletter. It's my data driven sport betting information It's been something that's revamped So check that out at the the power rank dot com Also had a couple of pretty awesome interviews at the football analytic show I talked to mike craig who is a pro sports better. He has been on the show with us and I think Crushed it with the with the college football that he did that week with us last time We'll have them on again for sure on the show, but I did a I did a deep dive on Just kind of fundamentals of sports betting. We didn't we didn't Talk about anything preseason, but more just general concepts So that was a really fun conversation that has been getting some attention on twitter I also talked to bill connelly of espn this week That is not quite up, but it should be up Somewhat soon and that was I mean bill bill is incredible and these don't introduction when you're talking about college football analytics and And betting that is too those are two awesome guests Okay, so check that out by searching for the football analytic show Always good to get a good refresher on general practices before the season So the mike craig one I think there and then bill connelly is bill connelly So a lot of good stuff there check out ed's work over at the power ink and check him out on twitter at the power Inc. I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to calvin theobald and joy aflech for chopping up some snippets from this podcast for the fan dual social media accounts Thank you joy and cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in Good luck to you with your nfl preseason bets if you decide to dabble in those waters We'll talk to you once again next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network Aaron dolin here. Thanks for watching and make sure you click below on that subscribe button for more great fan dual content And check out some of our latest uploads and playlists right over here