 Once again ladies and gentlemen boys and girls and children of all ages you are now tuned in to the Prince of Investing coming to you guys and girls live all the way from the beautiful state of Honolulu, Hawaii Well, we're coming follow live from the city of Denver, Colorado via the beautiful city of Honolulu, Hawaii First of all, I want to say welcome to 2020. This is the first show here on Think Tech Hawaii And we got a very interesting episode today as we know we're walking into 2020 This is our first episode, but last year 2019 for our investors around the globe Into the US stock market seen a very very great year with the S&P 500 turning about 20 to 20 29% We had a very great year for investors that was bullish, right? He was bearish not so much, but Throughout that whole year, we had a very great year, but the question remained Right, we had an episode that we shot last year and we had James Fortlin on from Wall Street Uncle James, I like to call him and he predicted the 2019 bull market and 20 last year Everybody was saying the market was going to go down Everybody was saying that we're going into a recession watch out for the recession I know so many of my friends and family that pulled out their money They said hey, you know, I know the market is about to collapse but the market did great and James was very bullish on a bearish on the market and I wonder why was he so bearish? So we had him on the last episode and this is where he said as you can see he was saying things as far as The January barometer the ninth year all these ways that he was so built up into the bear market So I had to bring him back to ask him Why was he so confident in the bear in the bull in the bull market? Why was he so confident the bull market in 2019 when everybody else around the globe was so bears and most importantly What does he think of 2020? So without further ado, let me bring on Uncle James all the way from a beautiful state of New Jersey out there by Wall Street James. We're glad to have you on How you doing up there? How are you happy new year everybody? Are you happy new year now as you was hearing you say and last last time you was on you Were saying some great things about you believed into the 2019 Bull market the first question is why did you believe in the bull and why were you so confident? Oh? Well, it was first of all the the corporate tax cut that was instituted by the Trump administration Was going basically had put us more in even front with the rest of the world and I think a lot of people overlook the impact of that and And basically for the last I don't know 10 15 years the USS had the highest tax or corporate tax rate Which drove a lot of business out of the country? In some cases it was cheaper for say Ford motor company To build cars in Mexico and sell them back in the United States and they pay a lot less taxes by doing that And that's really no way to run a country But Trump was key to that and they lowered the corporate tax rate And I just to me it looked like it was going to be a non-stop earning machine that was that's the first thing The second thing is a little more There's actually three parts the the second thing was also there was a big push to sort of deregulate and maybe How about what a lot of people call the administrative state in Washington where? There's just a lot of people in Washington trying to centrally Manage everyone's businesses and life and the less of that you have historically the better the economy gets So the bigger Washington is the worst the economy gets the smaller Washington's impact the better the economy gets it's just it's like in an inverse relationship And then the third thing was the was the was the tariff business The free trade agreement or the trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. I thought was really significant And the the old NAFTA needed to be reworked and then a lot of the rest of the year I've been harping on you know Everybody else has been saying recession recession recession or impeachment impeachment impeachment or Russia Russia Russia I've been saying China China China and so that the second half of the year I think you got a lot of steam because of a push to negotiate with China And as you see the last couple of days and what was the market up today corner and 67 points or something like that on the Dow You know you have the first step in a road To making a long-term Fairer and equitable trade deal with China So I just think that's enormous for the US for US companies and for the US economy So those are kind of the three thing yeah So you post some of the tariffs right we're gonna get into the trade war later and NAS I want you to kind of reiterate you spoke about the january january barometer You say that every year that ends with a nine Every year that ends with a nine itself for three years, which I think it was 1929 1960 something like that So you say every year It's something very superstitious when you said it that every year that ends with the nine is usually an up year Right and you use the january barometer and you said the third year of every presidency Is usually a bull market and you said right every year the pre Pre-election year it was 2019 was a pre-election year and it was don trump's third election year You said he's used a lot of historical data To calculate this bull market that was about to happen And I won't tell people about the market settlement Everybody the reason why we did that episode because everybody was like recession recession people was pulling their money out People was running from it, but you brought in these very superstitious numbers of every third year Long-term data Now that you did that we did that in 2019 What is your market predictions for 2020 and why? Oh Boy, well first of all 2020 we got we got kind of a the january barometer There's even there's even a shorter version of the first I think it's the first five days of trading and if the market ends up in the first five days of trading It means the whole rest of the year It's going to be up and we were up the first five days of trading. So that's a big positive Um, I would say that the way this is what I look at more than anything This is see last year. There was a lot of historic data because there was so much noise um Really what I would call anti trump sentiment in the media even in the financial press and From a lot of different areas And this year, I think we go into 2020 with a little different view It's very hard for a lot of people or for most of us to learn Anything from a year where things go well So it's hard to learn when the market's up and you make money But the one thing I think a lot of people learned last year the hard way was You're never going to get rich by bashing the president. It's just not going to happen And as long as they keep bashing the president the market's going to go up It's just it's this huge we used to call it the war glory It's I mean today. I'm looking we hit a record and almost every major financial website Older we're talking about is when the next recession is coming and I'm like you just signed a huge trade deal with with china That's not even that makes a headline. You got it. And we finally signed the mexico kimi canadian the new I I forget what the acronym is it for the new NAFTA. It took me like 20 years to get that one, right? um So we finally signed that also and that doesn't make any headlines But we're talking about you know when the next recession is coming and I'm like Come on people like it's it's we're only january 15th already here. Let's like let's give it a little rest here um I just think that if people learned a hard lesson Like I always tell people you invest money in the stock market to make money If you're if you want to save the world plant a tree Or write a book and teach kids how to how to invest money like you're doing But in the stock market, we're here to make money. That's what we're here to do and people who Get involved in investing for other reasons than to make money or already You know making a mess out of things and I'm not saying you got to love the president. You know what? I didn't I wasn't a fan of barack obama. I wasn't a fan of his policies But he was the president we had to deal with so you had a particular investing strategy To take advantage of many of the policies that he was pushing for Now we have a new president and we have to have a different set of investment policies To capture what's being pushed forward with this president And this president is a much more volatile president Uh, he's so it's going to create a lot more volatility and turmoil in the markets But last year it proved, you know Non-stop that all that volatility was all buying opportunities No matter when it was and no matter how you know and on top of that like we also saw that how And and we just saw it again with this Iran thing the last couple of days Where how bad all this computerized trading is I mean the other night, you know, you had the president take out a major terrorist Probably the number one terrorist in the entire world Contrary to what the media is recording Um, you had a lot of people in Iran very happy about that including anybody who has any sense and Most of the rest of the world And then Iran retaliated with this sort of phony bologna missile barrage where they shot a bunch of missiles Out into the middle of the Iraqi desert, which really didn't do much of anything And any amount of just knowledge on the subject you would have known right away that This was this was kind of a safe face response. They really weren't looking to have the us get provoked And trump didn't take the bait Now, of course world that was going on they shot down an airplane that they claim was Not on purpose, but I have a tendency to think otherwise and uh They you know The media was going crazy about how we're going to have world war three and I'm like we've been in a cold war with Iran since 1979 was since the Big hostage crisis what it was called And we've had they've been fighting with us non-stop since this is nothing out of the ordinary At all the only difference thing is we actually fought back for a change, which is kind of nice um And I and I just think that showed the computerized trading sold off the market really quickly Which was a great way to take advantage and if you were a buyer By the next day you realize world war two just world war three just wasn't happening and As as we put you know, they do on facebook We put we're mark safe from world war three on our facebook pages because it just was it I mean right away. It was ridiculous. But people were like, they were like, this is the end. There's gonna be a draft They're gonna round everybody up and send them off and I'm like, what are you talking about? It was it was really silly actually It was really why it's silly and you're you're you know, you you're a military guy I mean if we were gonna have a draft the congress would have to authorize it It's not like the the military just started calling up People because they have your phone number and they're gonna say hey James, I know you're a little old but we want to work at where we're sending you off to iraq and I'm like I'm like if unless you're sending me to the iranian army It's not going to help you too much because I'm kind of old and we're a lot of shape but you know I'd be I'd be more helpful like for you if I played on the other team, you know Like that would be that's how bad I am right so like, you know, it's stuff like that So I just think we learned a lot of lessons that we a lot of people I think learned for the first time Or at least they should have that you can't look your your political preferences For your likes and dislikes have nothing to do with investing And I I think I'm and I'm gonna and I'm gonna like You know last year I pulled out a bunch of old numbers because we were just barrage by you know This is the end of the world and trump is like going to destroy the universe and it's going to be a trade war And a shooting war and this war and that war and we're gonna get taken over by Mexico And we're gonna and now we have in global warming is going to destroy us all and by the you know Meanwhile, I mean look at all look at the global warming scare Speaking of our former president He retires from office and buys a beautiful mansion on the beach in marthes vineyard So I guess if there really is a global warming thing and he's arising He he would know more than anybody. Yes Now this is the thing like you just made some good points about the 2019 market How you predicted and all the noise That's in the marketplace, right? What all things going on in the behavior how you brought buying opportunities in 2019 Now before we go any further Uh, we got to jump into a quick break, right? But we come out of this commercial We're going to go in and we're going to talk about You know, how would you position yourself to take advantage of a bull market in 2019? Or how would you hit yourself so one second quick take right now and we'll be right back Hey, hello everyone and welcome to the think tech hawaii studio. My name is andre landing. I'm the host of pretty matters hawaii We air here every tuesday at 10 a.m. hawaii time Trying to bring you issues about security that you may not know issues that can protect your family Take yourself Take our community protect our our companies the folks we work with Please join us and I hope you can maybe get a little different perspective on how to live a little safer. Aloha Aloha, my name is wendy lo and I want you to join me as we take our health back On my show all we do is talk about things in everyday life in hawaii or abroad I have guests on board that would just talk about different aspects of health in every in every way Whether it's medical health nutritional health diabetic health You name it. We'll talk about it even financial health We'll even have some of the miss hawaii's on board and all the different topics that I feel Will make your health and your lifestyle a lot better. So come join me. I welcome you to take your health back Mahalo Ladies and gentlemen boys and girls of truth of all ages. We're coming back now for my break and before our break We was talking about in 2019. How did james fortland predict the bear? The bull. I want to keep saying bear. Why did he predict the bull market of 2019? And what is he thinking of 2020 now? He spoke about some of the crucial facts that we talked about with about the january Barometer the first five days of the market and he also spoke about how the tears and the trades How the tear um the tears and the deal with china and mexico Kind of opened up the market and brought very great buying opportunities to the bull investors And the first question as we come back into there. I'm gonna ask james, right? We just sounded the quote-unquote phase one of the trade deal with china And I kind of look at and I always say that trump will win the trade war My question is to you james is trump winning is president trump winning the trade war Oh massively If you talk to I used to do a lot of business with chinese companies back in the old days And they are they were basically crying. I mean they all hate trump because he is Sticking her to him really hard and they're much more. They're very dependent on exports at this point in the game and they're They have a lot more to lose out of this than than we have and Trump played them hard and I think a lot of it was stretched out just because They believed a lot of stuff. They saw in the media like a lot of other people and They were foolish to believe that they should have picked up trump's book called the art of the deal And he spells out exactly how you do all this stuff Um in that book and I'm and again. I'm not saying the guy I'm saying if you're even if you're not gonna like him at least know something about him and Uh, he spelled out a lot of his negotiating tactics, which are very clear. He employed many of them In fact, the chinese even try to employ some right back to him So maybe they did read the art of the deal There was a couple of times where they try to pull out of the agreement and do a bunch of other stuff So I think it's gonna only get better for actually and in the end at the end of the day It's going to be better for both countries. It's going to be it's a win-win I hate to use that word because it gets so overused But if if we if if the us comes out of this as a winner China is going to come out of this as a winner as well. It's going to be better for everybody Okay, now and I agree. I always told people I looked at Um, America is the customer and china was like the business owner You know, because america we're in a trade deficit where we buy everything for the most part and china in a position where they make everything So my ideology was that if a business owner and a customer got into it Who would you think win the customer is always right right because we're the ones that's buying everything We don't spend our dollars or take our dollars somewhere else You know, who's going to come up on the short end now my thing to you is Now that we know that uh, trump has done a favorable deal for america with um, I saw that Um to close the trade deficit that china has spent like 200 billion Um, they're going to lift some of the tariffs things like that or whatnot My question to you if going into 2020, how would you position your portfolio? Or how would you what stocks would you buy going into 2020 to take advantage of the possible bull market that you're predicting here in 2020 Oh, well, first of all, I think I didn't mean to cut you off there. This isn't election year Right, so it isn't election year. So usually historically the market's a little odder in election years Although it still has a bias to the upside But I think we're also in a even a bigger cycle is starting to take over right now And I think we're in one of those sort of Huge historical pivot points. I would call it a technological pivot point You could probably say 1982 was sort of a point like this Where the super bowl took off and maybe 1994 was another one of those huge pivot points Where they rolled out all this, you know Cell phones and PCs and the internet and everything kind of a Netscape Netscape Netscape And we had the dot com things there and all that kind of stuff I think we're in another another one of those major pivot pivot points But this time we're going to have some Some of the same things from boats from 92 or 94 as well as 82 In 82 we had a lot of consolidation I think there's some older industries like cable tv and Maybe some of the phone companies And as well as some sort of newer industries that you're going to be surprised That technology is making them either obsolete and forcing consolidation Or just the customer itself like you were talking about is change their taste So there's sort of a taste for different things The second thing I think again is I'm going to urge people do not fight the tape as we say The market is going to it looks to me like it's going to probably attack on another 25% this year So I'm looking for somewhere like 3750 or something like that like somewhere up in that range So what I'm looking at what I'm thinking is we're going to see is more mergers We're probably going to start to see more IPOs We're going to see maybe an internet reboot or the start of it where we go to a sort of a blockchain based internet I know I was Early on I was negative on bitcoin or I called it bitcoin, but I still think the underlying technology is pretty cool Um, I think you're gonna you might even see some change in the way the dollar You might see a renewed pegging the dollar to some kind of solid Source of value like gold or perhaps some kind of cryptocurrency that acts like gold Bitcoin is a little too small in the liquidity size. It's just not big enough To do it, but it works like It's engineered the program works like gold works um I also think that you're probably going to see Some newer a new technology some new technologies like AI But I think it's I'm not a believer that AI is going to take over our lives And we're all going to be obsolete and robots are going to do everything for us I think AI might knock out companies like for example uber May have trouble competing because suddenly you're going to get a little AI System in your cell phone that allows customers to call you directly and you create your own uber You don't need the big company. You don't need a centralized And I I think there's a lot of that and I think a lot of people are very much overlooking that and so I just think and also when you have states like california that are basically trying to stop Sort of freelance workers or putting into it, which is I think catastrophic and totally crazy And new jerseys even trying to do the same thing to some degree I think that with AI is so advanced it would make all those uber drivers instead of being an uber driver They'd be an independent They'd be now uber entrepreneurs and they'd all be their own it would be their own little business So they wouldn't work for uber anymore. They'd they'd be like their own uber and I think there's a lot of technology now That we're going to see fruition of we're also going to see big changes in some of the privacy issues that are available That are on the internet I'll add the reboot of the internet, but I think that just the really nearly selling of people's data and collecting data I think there's it's going to be limited And I think you're going to get you may get controlled back of your own data, which Which to me is really significant Another way if we're going to have more privacy again, which is the big problem because that's why people like me I love alexa, but I would never use it because I don't trust it And even I noticed on apple On the on all the apple voice activated stuff when I when I when I updated the thing It said, oh if you want to use the voice actor When is it okay to use it when when you address the You know the app or like and we like it basically says that they're not going to share you that They're not going to be listening to you right now Although it just came on when we started the the call here on my ipad started talking to me So maybe it was listening. I don't know. I was like so these things are uh, you know, sometimes I'm hallucinating Go ahead now The biggest creek you go to have 2019 we're going to 2020 we've had 10 years of a bull market mean the market's going up since 2019 for an entire decade This is the longest running bull we've ever seen and every day we wake up There's another hundred points. There's another 200 points. So when people see that everybody's always thinking Expansion maybe we're at the peak So that's the first thing, you know after the peak we're going to have a recession So what do you have to say to the people that are going to say well, we've been on a bull market for 10 years It's just been going up up up and up. It would sort of be crazy to not think or to look for a downside Well, first of all, I don't think we were in a bull market I think the market went up only really because the federal reserve flooded since 2008 the federal reserve just flooded Basically what they were calling helicopter finance They were flying around helicopters and throwing money out the window and hoping guys like you and me would pick it up and spend it somewhere And but what we were doing is we were buying stocks with that money. It was it's like uh, the the rally probably prior to 2016 um a good portion of that was just an inflationary adjustment from the Basically the collapse that it was all that QE Like that quantitative easing stuff from the disaster the 2008 financial crisis And I don't really think the market was up that much. I mean the economy didn't grow that much it was Uh, it was kind of we were sort of stagnant for 10 years and and again I'm not don't think I'm trying to blame anybody or anything. I'm just saying it is what it is and I think when you Suddenly you got a new administration Uh, that was clearly an outsider and a business owner a large business owner particularly involved in the real estate business You got somebody who who's very involved interested in what goes on in banking and real and interest rates and things like that um And so you have a lot of push um, I think on uh Uh Like like there's just been a lot of things done Whether it's getting rid of Dodd franc whether it's um, you know yelling at the federal reserve whether it's deregulating whether it's cutting tech I mean larry cuddler was all over tv yesterday bragging about how tax cut 2.0 is in the works And so you get a you get a trump reelection. You're gonna have a storm I I don't think this is going to be the typical second term for president I think you're gonna have a a storm of activity from the white house And from congress doing a whole bunch of things that they probably should have been doing the last two or three years But they've been busy fighting with the president instead or trying to or some people would say undermining the president Um, and and you know if you have different ideas, that's fine on an on an idea ground But I just think this is all uh, this is very much, uh, you know If trump came out tomorrow and said my administration is cured cancer I guarantee cnn and some of these other stations would would say that trump is terrible because he's gonna Unimple all these people that work at hospitals and this is a terrible thing to happen You know, I mean, I mean they were cheering for they were they were crying over a murdering terrorist The guys killed at least 600 people documented He's like a mastermind terrorist and they're on tv like crying about how he was assassinated And then they're ragged about the last time the united states did this was with, uh, Admiral yokohama or whatever it is in japan and i'm thinking of myself well that kind of That worked out pretty well for the us in those days. So maybe this is not a bad thing after all this way, you know I mean, I just This is what you were just flooded with this this noise as you called it and and it and it's it's just You as an investor you really have to Buffer this and filter it out of your head because it's and it's hard because it comes from everywhere Including most of the financial press which is just it's horrible. It used to be very good. And now it's Like a lot of this stuff they publish just garbage All right, well james we got to get ready. We got to get out of here It's all as always we always have fun. We got to bring the show to the end. I want to say Tell people how can they find you? How can they follow you? All right, well, I do have a facebook page called unofficial wall street And if you're fortunate enough to be in new york city, I do do financial tours on wall street Which are kind of a lot of fun, especially if you want to learn the history and some of the crazy stuff that Has gone on um And usually I can be reached at the page on facebook It's called unofficial wall street as I said and that's usually the best way to get in touch with me through That page and I'm more than willing to talk to anybody. I don't give financial advice anymore. I am out of that business Um, but I will tell you which way I might think the market's going or stuff that I think is really important or stuff I think is not important. I'm like All right. Well, that's james fortland My name is prince. Dix as always until the next video podcast cartoon or whatever else crazy you see is do around the globe Peace be safe. I'm out and thank you