 Hi, my name's Dionne Rowe, currency trader and trading coach at Trading180.com and welcome to this week's Forex and Gold Supply and demand fundamental and technical analysis A warm welcome to you if you're new and if you're returning an equally warm welcome to you And if you are watching this video for the first time in my analysis, I Combine fundamental and technical analysis to really make the best trading decisions over the medium to long term So don't forget to like subscribe and share if you do find the analysis that I provide every week very useful It's a free way to support the channel and really helps to get the quality information that I provide out there and So let's get into the week ahead and you can find us on trading at economics.com one of my go-to sites And let me just zoom in on the text so week ahead in the US the The inflation rate data will be closely watched Followed by several speeches by the Fed officials and midterm elections in Europe investors We're one of the UK third quarter GDP growth and retail sales for euro area Finally China is set to publish foreign trade and inflation figures and Indonesia None of those countries that we actually trade their currencies So if you wanted more a bit more of a detailed Perspective you go to the week ahead on trading economics and they give their analysis right here So as we go into the technicals start off with a dollar index and The dollar index so looking at this from really a fundamental perspective Let's go to What happened during the week? So the US jobs rise while unemployment drops keeping the pressure on the feds the payrolls climbed 263,000 last month jobless rate fell to 3.5 data reaffirms traders bets for another bid big Sorry Fed rate hike and so Just reading the first paragraph the US labor market stayed strong in September as the unemployment rate Unexpectedly returned to an historic low leaving the inflation phobic Federal reserve on calls to deliver yet another aggressive rate interest rate hike and so You know the jobs growth remains solid Which is decent news for those of you who are actually buying the US Dollar and for those of you who actually attended the webinar on Thursday we went over really the fundamental cheat code And so you should be able now to watch this this webinar or guess I guess this so this video and Understand when I'm talking about inflation And interest rates and the effect that should have on a currency and if you missed it I will be releasing the webinar But not until 2023 it's really to kind of reward those who did turn up and give those guys really a head start So I've released a webinar probably 2023 Unfortunately, if you couldn't make it don't worry, you will get the information, but yeah, it won't be for now But if you were for those of you who did attend And took notes You can now get start to get a head start on on the other traders in terms of you know Generating a trade idea and trade ideas and why you still want to potentially want to go long not financial advice Of course, but why the probabilities even your favor in order for you to go long and by the way if you do want to Sign up to the trading 180 mentorship enrollment opens on Monday the 28th of November and ends on Friday the 2nd of November it's a final opening of 2022 the next enrollment may be late January possibly More likely to be early February 2023. So go to trading 180 comm but going back to The the US dollar and understanding how fundamentals You know affect the the valuation or potentially affect the valuation of of price In the net and then next uh, you know month for two for me the dollar is still a potential buy And I understand that you know, you can see that there was a massive drop because people would say well What's the why is there a big drop on the? On the dollar right dollar index the dollar index weakened on Friday With the expectation that the Fed will hike rates now I always say this in the short term prices, you know driven by more driven by liquidity and The hunt for liquidity and value right a lot of people and a lot of traders would have seen the dollar actually You know positive news around the dollar doesn't mean that every single positive news is going to produce Positive price action in the short term because there's not enough liquidity for For prices to go higher than it searches for the liquidity below, which is basically Gonna stop, you know, you guys out drawing more traders to go short when it allows, you know The smart money to accumulate and go long right if that is indeed You know going to play out over the short term and by the way, although as big as a candle was the as the market is is Saying that it's a really big candle to the downside when you when you look at You know Candle like this right that went down was that eight one point nine two percent on that day This day, you know prices went down nearly two percent One point nine six percent that day there was around One point six eight percent and on this day you had about two percent, right now Just because it got you know prices go down You know, maybe a half Maybe two percent one and a half. Maybe two percent doesn't mean it's going to you know The trend is going to continue to the downside, right? We've seen this we've seen Large moves in the past before but yet you've had, you know pullbacks, right because at some point in the market deems Fundamentally the the dollar to be a potential bargain now Smart money don't necessarily want to buy a highs and if you zoom out, you know They're definitely buying a highs right so it's best to you know get traders to go the other way before they start buying now Will they buy here or will they buy here for me? Nobody knows no one knows no one can predict which level this is a game of probabilities But the cheaper prices go especially when you understand that nothing really has changed In terms of the fundamentals, of course, we have data to come out. We still have inflation data We still have some other data that needs to confirm that the dollar is still a buy But if you know if prices come to the downside to go to the downside Right, and then inflation comes out and it's still, you know above or causing the Fed problems And the economy is still managed to supporting rate hikes as well the economy is still decent enough then These areas start to look like absolute bargains. So for me My bias is still to buy the dollar. It's just really looking for the pullback and the bargains, right and black rock You know this one of the world's biggest Hedge funds black rock black rocks rider or reader says Fed may overdo it with rate increases. So brilliant moves can come to Can become too restrictive if excessive and again, we learned this on the on the webinar, right? If you hike too much, yeah, then it can have a negative effect on the On the economy. So drop in housing activity is clear sight signal of slowing economy of course, all the economies are slowing though and so The Says Friday's job report showed an economy strong enough to keep the Federal Reserve raising rates to keep back in Keep sorry to beat back inflation black rocks Rick reader says just don't overdo it So that is there's the positive, right? So it says the Fed has to be careful about overtightening or tightening too much the chief investment officer for fixed global income at black rock financial management Incorporated toll Bloomberg's Television TV they open we're moving in the right direction We're slowing so positive news Sorry positive news in terms of the economy and jobs but What they're warning about is just don't overdo it with the with the rate hikes, right? But the the US is in a better position. I think Then a lot of other countries which you'll get to so just to wrap up on the dollar For me pullbacks. This is you know, just just you know Just noise in the short term and for me looking to buy the dollar at levels Especially if it comes cheaper down to this 108 and the data supports the narrative the dollar Yen and again dollar yen. I think the dollar is still the buy interventions at the moment really haven't Had any kind of follow-through was talking about this last week And I think really the follow-through from any intervention has to be accompanied by the Bank of Japan Really kind of switching gears in terms of their monetary policy. So Where are we right now in terms of supply and demand? We're in this this auction between I think the one of what we have the say the one for nine 70s and the one for five So any if you do want to be a buyer of the dollar any pullback I think down to the one for four is going to be a decent air to now start to look for potential buyers Even better would be the one for ones I think and if you do want to get short on the dollar and buy the yen Then I think those that one five one area is going to be really good for a potential Cell this should be accompanied by some sort of Ministry of Finance intervention It starts to go higher above there as well as this is you know Can this has been basically a line in the sand but not really a pair that I'm interested in trading to be fair only really? looking at that as A guide as to why I want to possibly buy the yen In the future my bias is to buy the end But I need to see it really at the one five twos one five freeze before I look to buy the yen looking at the The dollar Swiss and I'll say in last week you can see the analysis on here from last week That I was saying that if prices do come up here You think this Swiss Frank is a buy then look to buy the Swiss Frank Which is basically selling the US dollar and you can see it pretty much pinged off of that I didn't like that technically, but I just don't like it really fundamentally. I wouldn't buy the Swiss Frank over the dollar But where are at now? I think any kind of pullbacks deeper into the one Sorry, the zero nine eight area. I think is decent for a potential bar even the zero nine seven fifties I think a decent for potential Buyers if you're looking at buying the dollar Swiss again to central banks. I'm not really Looking to trade against each other But if I did obviously it would be the dollar I think the dollar is definitely stronger than the Swiss Frank or the Swiss National Bank, but I would really want to pull back Probably a deeper pullback before I look for any kind of long trades I mean you can look for even a trade at the gender 99 Cent area as well That is your bias Dollar CAD and again dollar CAD. It really has come down to This demand zone again the best areas to always look for buy trade is the first touches of demand and We've had obviously seen this drop on there on the on the US dollar weakening US dollars, so If you do want to get involved in this Then a drop down to the one three twos will be you know really nice Not really a pair again that I'm interested in taking simply because the divergence Although you think the US dollars probably better than the Canadian dollar I still don't think the divergence is is big enough for me to want to get involved in this But what you did see as well as prices did come up to this one three seven one three eight area Then you know sell off if you do think that you want to get short by the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar than a pullback into the one three sevens. I think is decent for a pullback before looking at getting looking at getting short Moving on to the New Zealand dollar and the end of having a bit of a rally zooming out a bit There's been talk in fact of covered restrictions being lifted potentially in China and if it does then the The commodity currencies, especially the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar are going to be Really, you know, I think of buys Because risk hopefully with China coming back online That lifts global sentiment global economy china start to grow again and You know the beneficiaries will be the commodity currencies, especially The New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar has their China's biggest importers and exporters, right business partners and so If we start to see that I think any pullbacks into especially down into these 55 cent areas I think they're going to be very very nice for a potential buy There is some support and resistance around here as well There is some confluence so Right there So if you're an intraday trader that you probably just look for any kind of pullback down into This area here, but I do think that the Towards the bottom end of this is where really the bargain is because it was proven a bargain back on, you know In october mid october prices have gone to the upside. So Move back down to here. I think it's decent buy a decent buy, but you'd have to really believe we're going to have to be accompanied by China reopening Pound dollar my saying last week. I'm in this trade took some profit actually right at these lows And that was really due to understanding Mark more mark Chapman's market maker Business model when understanding that in fact there were some market makers that were probably looking to Stop kind of prevent, you know prices from going to the downside. So If you do want to also Have a watch of marks A half of the webinar that we did on thursday, please Do a youtube search for the underground traders alliance I'll see if I can remember to put a link To his channel as well and definitely watch his his webinar where he talks about Market makers being active and passive right and I think they were definitely more active around here And at the end of at the end of thursday and the webinar I was looking at my my trade I was up a good few hundred pips on one of my positions and I took Some profit off that so glad that I did still got a small position running And I do think that prices should eventually roll over to the 110s. I think this is just, you know, a short-term pullback But it's always good to To take profit along the way, but where are we now? We've at if you're looking to you know buy there that would be where the demand zone is for me Though my bias is to the short side and so I'm looking at levels of supply. So I'm looking at supply there We did have a touch there where I originally ended up getting in on there and There as well. So I think any pullbacks Is okay, I think is around is that is it's okay a pullback around here I do think anything above or towards the 117 is going to be a fantastic Sell trade or a buy for the for the US dollar that is providing obviously that the narrative of the pound and looking at the the UK in fact, that's Let's look at the pound here. We are it says pound to lead UK markets suffering as Bank of England flags long Recessions are sterling as weak the week's worst performer among major currencies slumping guilds futures trading data points to buyers Strike it's a gloomy forecast for the long UK recession by the Bank of England have renewed bets on a Slide in the pounds that the currency is already heading for its worst year since 2008 And investors see little upside the sterling and coming months summer betting on another fall below the 110s by the end of the year I'm sorry after it tumbled this week in at the worst performance among major currencies and you could see it's You know easy to understand why You know the Bank of England pretty much saying that the the the UK is probably going to go into a long recession um And as well just to understand again trade divergence ideas and what I teach this is something that Was in Bloomberg as well. So chart in the global economy So the Fed the Bank of England diverge on rate hike paths, and this is quite interesting So the Federal Reserve and Bank of England both boosted interest rates by 75 basis points this week But communicated different messages regarding how High borrowing costs need to go in order to tame inflation borrowing costs meaning interest rates After what was initially seen as somewhat dovish policy statement Fed chair Javon Powell told reporters after the announcement that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected, you know, so You know the market should be pricing in A higher How will higher interest rates than what they were before the FOMC meeting right officials in the uk went the other Directions saying peak rates will be lower than priced into financial markets. So You know that pretty much says everything you really need to know when it comes to understanding which way You know prices likely to go over the medium to long term, right? So any pullbacks it shouldn't be seen as you know for me anyway and not reversals in in in Price it just means you can add in to a trade, you know, obviously take profits along the way when you up, you know a few hundred pips You know You know shave some some some profits off to get yourself into a nice profitable position So even if prices do pull back and you know stop out that position I'm already in profit and so it doesn't really matter But the the point is is that just looking at these moves to the upside Should be looked at as buying opportunities really for the stronger currency, which in my opinion is the u.s dollar and That would be the the path of travel so again, we've seen some forecast or one tends and below potentially if you know this week the uk come out and the the GDP isn't Isn't great right goes into the negative now If the uk avoid a recession because if there was every chance that it could avoid a technical We'll say a recession but contraction and go into the negative Then that might rally the pound right and that will in turn The market has to reevaluate what the pound is worth but if the um If the data supports the narrative of a weaker pound Then you should expect at least over again towards the end of the year Because we're half no, I would say half a beginning of of november We've probably got maybe about four weeks worth of trading active trading left Before the market starts to go on holiday, maybe four or five weeks You know, I think towards the end of the year that should really be the path Of the of the pound but again, it depends on what happens with GDP this week Moving on to the euro dollar again euro dollar pretty similar to for me the the pound in terms of the travel of direction Really any pullbacks on the euro are Shorting opportunities for me. So pull back into that zone there is really nice And we also have Supply zone above that so again any decent decent area of supply to get Short so again the the the move up isn't because for me the the euro is it's just suddenly stronger, right? If anything, it's just a Reaction to what's happened on the the u.s. Dollar and in fact um There is a may risk Sees Europe close to a recession with the u.s. Not far behind so Again, one of the trading ideas that I show traders is a leading and lagging so who is the Which economy is likely to go into a recession first and that's really the the economy that you should look to sell Again, this is not financial advice But um, you know the shipping giant says container market is also Will also shrink or may also shrink in 2023 the workhorses of global trade are coming off record profits. So Europe is close to entering a recession and the u.s. Economy may not be far behind and so You know this this is from the um The gentleman at maya risk it says that is a start message Wednesday from ap muller maya risk a s the world's number two container carrier and a bellweather for the 29 trillion market dollar market for global trade and he says It's really hard to be very optimistic with the water on our doorstep and the bigger energy crisis this winter So the so that is impacting consumer confidence and therefore Also demand maya risk ceo sarin scu said in an interview on bloomberg tv It's quite likely that we are that we either are or will be soon in a recession certainly in europe But potentially also in the u.s. And obviously these guys are global shipping containers They can they they know, you know, what's happening around the globe. They're in tune, right? They can see the data they can see What's happening trade and you know, this gentleman here is saying that The euro is likely to be in a recession sooner than the dollar, right? So that's you know, for me again It's just the trade idea any pullbacks Short trades Again, not financial advice. Of course, if you want to be a buyer of the of the euro, you know, this was a nice area to look for potential buy trades In that area of demand, right? So, you know, there was an opportunity to buy, you know, price doesn't move in a straight line, of course But overall, you know, you can have a bias One way if you understand where prices are likely to go in the over the medium to long term in the short term You're going to get, you know, this happened, but for me, it's Still to the downside Aussie dollar Again, I spoke about this similar very similar to the New Zealand dollar. I think any pullbacks Right, if China Start to reopen, I think any pullbacks are going to be really nice buying opportunities for the Australian dollar As a commodity currency, but if you are looking for any kind of sell trades Again, that's a decent area there even better would be Here and here, if you believe that the US dollar is going to be is remaining, you know, the stronger of the two And the and risk off sentiment, which should help the US dollar over the commodity currency like the Australian dollar Aussie Aussie yen, sorry, we've had it again a bit of a change in sentiment when it comes to um risk sentiment So potentially again the china story driving prices, you know to the upside with the Australian dollar So any pullbacks if prices do pull back and the story does have some legs In terms of it is true. China is reopening Then I think this is going to be really a really nice buy. So we had a nice buy right here I think anywhere around here second, you know touches of levels aren't necessarily You know better than the first touches first touches are always, you know, the best Areas to look for buy trades, but I think any pullbacks around this 90 Area should be decent for a potential buy if it's supported by You know positive risk off sentiment as well as as well The bank of japan not looking to intervene. So that's decent And gold finally gold gold has been benefiting or benefited from a weaker dollar But also fundamentally I do think that I'm just trying to find the story on gold Right, here we are. So who are the mystery buyers? Responsible for central bank gold boom So purchases from central banks hit a record last quarter the world gold council says That included substantial amount of unreported buying and this was November the 1st the central banks bought a record amount of gold last quarter as a diversified foreign currency reserves With a large chunk of the purchases coming from as yet unknown buyers. So again the As I've been saying for the past Few months as prices have been coming down the smart money. They accumulate over time, right? They have to This is what's been happening whereas You know, and they're buying a value and if you zoom out, of course This is you can see obviously where they've been buying gold for cheap because especially if next year We're seeing global recessions, right in terms of the us The uk and europe then gold will be a really really nice buy and there was also a Where was it? Yeah, so this was a video as well on bloomberg gold won't go much lower. Well gold council ceo So he thinks that the horizon for gold in the relatively near future is positive. Yeah, so Of course, you know, he does have maybe a bit of an agenda But it makes sense fundamentally when you look at, you know, the bigger picture Where gold is is basically been a bargain, right? So this was where the institutions Said that gold is a is a bargain here and they've been buying here and also buying here So I think any pullbacks I think in this area. I think you're going to be decent buyers Very decent buys even if prices do come, you know below that to the 1600s I still think that Again, once the feds start to You know ease up on interest rates start to The interest rate cycle does start to end and the the narrative of recession starts to come into play This is where the smart money would have been buying and Yeah, probably see some potential upside in gold and silver. Anyways guys, that's it for this week Hope you have a great trading week and thank you for all the feedback on the webinar for those of you who attended Much appreciated and for those of you who didn't attend unfortunately I will be I will be releasing it. That's the good thing. The bad news is that it won't be until Next year. So, um, I hope you have a great trading week and take care and speak to you all soon