 Okay, very good morning. Hope you had a good weekend. You'd be pleased to know my voice is now back to normal and It's coming up to 9 p.m. London time So I just wanted to get you up to speed ahead of the the week ahead and plenty to talk about and as you can see here I'm gonna really kick off the conversation a bit of a recap of of last week Of course, we saw things like hawkish FMC minutes We also saw the non-farm payrolls report come out on Friday and although the headline figure was a disappointment much lower than expected We did see the wage number go up to 4.7 percent way above expectations of 4.2 and the unemployment rate also dropped to 3.9 percent Expectations were for 4.1 so furlough fueled that US yield movement We had seen really dominate proceedings last week and that's what we're looking at here We closed at 1.7 6 6 percent in the US 10-year yield and that as you can see puts us just above the peak of where we were In around March time of 2021 and we're kind of gunning now and for around the 2% yield level of which we were trading back In around the kind of November December time really Q4 of 2019 So this being then prior to the actual pandemic and it commencing of course a lot of rationale here being now the fact that markets have moved quite aggressively pricing and Subsequent timing around the sequence as well of the Federal Reserve's normalization of policy So not only now we're expecting tapering Process to conclude by March. We're also talking about the idea then that we might see rate lift off and also the shrinking of The balance sheet and as you can see here in terms of US interest rates implied Positioning in short-end rates in the US from the different colors is basically as we've moved through Through time and the curve has got more steeper steeper to signify their more aggressive rate hikes to come For this year and actually pricing in very much So now that anticipation of March and there's been lots of big major Institutions coming out calling now for that March hike and penciling that in for the timeline So that's really going to be quite a key thing to account for this week Of course last week we saw in the equity space broad weakness overall, but under performance in those growth Stocks which are more sensitive to high yield movement. So quite an interesting sector plays with replying out So those are more cyclical benefiting generally the decrease is being less severe than that with what we were seeing in say tech names Overall and we'll be continuing to monitoring that quite quite closely And as far as crypto land is concerned as well And these are of course live prices trading through the weekend and after coming under quite significant pressure From last week We are seeing a bit of a bounce to kick off the the new week Bitcoin now trading back up about 4% at 42 Come out to 42 and a half thousand and that pretty much replicated across the board So theory is up just over 5 XRP up for Solana up about the same margin as well Cardan Cardano up around 4% as well. So decent gain seen there at the moment We'll see how sustained that can be Otherwise in terms of the news and a few things to get you up to speed on starting with the COVID picture I would say overall the general assessment has been now that the markets kind of moved On from generally Omicron and its impact even though that case rates have been sky-high as we've been seeing at record levels in Everywhere in mainland Europe the UK and the US and pretty similar We can expect from this week the market largely brushing that aside and I don't really see that being any Impediment to the continuation of some of the move that we've seen in yields of late now London according to the weekend may well be past the peak of the Omicron wave According to Kevin Fenton, who's London's regional director for public health. He spoke earlier today That's pretty much in fitting with some of the data that we have been seeing of late in terms of case numbers London of course was the UK epicenter of the Omicron variant other parts of the country case rates Are still moving higher at this point in time But that is somewhat lagging of London and London now Moving lower and also those on ventilators even though being Hospitalizations are moving slightly higher has remained very low and thus then we're not expecting any new types of restrictions to come in from the UK So all fairly positive you would say in that regard and in fitting was what Prime Minister Boris Johnson said in the middle of last week About no new restrictions force coming Now COVID-19 hospitalizations in the US some headlines You might have clocked our poise to hit a new record high According to a tally by Reuters by Potentially Friday this week So passing the record set in January of last year deaths a lagging indicator though remain fairly steady at about 1,400 a day well below last year's peak So the latter fact I think likely to keep Markets relatively calm on the matter at the moment despite some of the rising numbers on the on the top level Otherwise elsewhere on Brexit foreign secretary Liz trust so you can see down the bottom here She said at the weekend she would not accept a Deal which means goods from Britain being checked as they enter Northern Ireland the protocol is part of the Brit Brexit deal of course that prevents a hard Irish border by keeping Northern Ireland inside the EU's single market for goods She's repeated the UK's willingness to trigger article 16 the mechanism of the protocol article 16 sets out the process for taking unilateral safeguard measures if Either the UK or the EU concludes that the deal is lean to serious practical problems or causing diversion of trade It's very serious threat, but it's one. I feel that it's not credible and I think really two reasons for this Really strategic posturing to fire a signal of intent. She's only just coming in to now leave the negotiations after Frost stepped down unhappy with some of the handling of the pandemic rules in Britain and a lack of progress with the EU on Brexit so she needs to really make a stance to just kick off the new round of negotiations so it's unsurprising to be taking quite a severe stance at this point in time and Of course timing is key and her comments do come ahead of two days of talks with her EU Counterpart which is going to happen this week and she is also Meeting with Northern Ireland political and business leaders this week as well So so again supportive of that degree about them getting a fair deal and all nine and still be inclusive of that Of being of tied to Westminster and so forth. So lots of assertive comments Zero impact as far as markets are concerned and the risk I would say of articles 16 being triggered doesn't move Because of what she said again. It's just purely political optics at this point Otherwise other things I'm interested in this week the US earnings kickoff on Friday There are some other earnings in between but really the unofficial commencement It's been the big banks report, which is on Friday as you can see here JPM Bammell goldman's and Morgan Stanley will be coming out. Now. What can we expect here? Well, the biggest banks are set to Report record profits. This is for 2021. Thanks to bumper investment banking fees And also loaned expected losses on loans during the pandemic I don't really think that any of these are particularly going to move the needle So to speak because I'd say that The record profit figure I think is pretty much baked in and very much expected at this point in time All right, the other thing then to talk about is This and just having a quick look at the calendar for the week ahead Yeah, after a sharp jump in bond yields still that's gonna be very much something that if you're an equity trader Or looking at the equity performance as much as there's individual isolated Single stock news flow. Definitely the yield movement might well dictate and definitely give clues towards any disparity and imbalance between The different three indies major indices in the US between that of the S&P Dow and Nasdaq as we continue to monitor the tech space quite quite closely the other things looking out for is Reports on December retail sales and US industrial production will come out on Friday For the former so retail sales analysts at the Dutch bank ING note that the figure may be close to flat with falling auto sales dragging the headline number down However, they do know that that is supply related due to lack of cost to purchase Rather than weakness in demand So perhaps not to read too much into the one-time weaker number that we'll we'll see in that December print Otherwise Fed chair Jerome Powell testifies on Tuesday That's before the Senate Senate Banking Committee and this is in regards to his nomination for his second term at the Fed chair So typically we don't really see too much in the way of much interest in these comments. It's more just a Formality if you like and similar will happen two days later with Fed governor Brainard She appears with the same panel of the confirmation hearing on her elevation to the vice chair position And again, they won't let anything slip. They're not really going to say anything too new I would say are the politicians really going to challenge them too much on the recent rate pricing probably not because politicians have a different agenda So as much as I'd keep an earring and an eye out on those those speeches during the week I don't think they're gonna be particularly probably too shocking The big thing of course for the week of is US CPI that is going to be The main release the the markets we're looking out for that comes out on Wednesday particularly in the context with the focus on yields and Fed timing on their rate hike and The reason why is because the year-on-year is expected to come in at seven percent Through December and climbed zero point four percent on the month earlier That's if it comes out with in line with expectations and of course the inflation surge Underscores largely then why US officials are preparing for a quicker Normalization and monetary policy than previously anticipated the jobs data, of course that we saw although weak on the headline as I said overall adds to the case and evidence of a tighter labor market and therefore gives the Fed the ability with this Very high inflation print that they've got to act sooner and later. So hence the reason why we've seen What's materialized over the last couple of sessions and other Fed speakers coming out this week? Mester George Evans and Bullard all on a docket and then moving away from the states from China mid-week You get their latest price data So inflation metrics could offer more evidence that inflationary pressure may have peaked there at least for the time being while trade Figures in China are also coming out at the end of the week and are set to know show new annual Export record as Beijing sticks to that COVID-19 zero Tolerance strategy that keeps its factories open though taking advantage of some of the recovering global demand seen elsewhere at this point in time and then elsewhere finally on Friday Highlight coming out in the UK monthly GDP and industrial data for November is going to be released Probably showing the fourth consecutive increase analysts suggest that growth figures the GDP numbers Supported by a decent month for UK retail and a bounce back in hospitality after a week October and not forgetting as well that this would also start to see the contribution of the new vaccine booster program Starting to come into play as well So that is it for the week ahead. So again, really the main highlight is going to be US CPR Wednesday Definitely yield watching once again a couple of bank earnings kick off then at the end of the week The reporting season and then you've got some Chinese metrics coming as well in the mid part of the week in inflation And also trade data as well to look out for so that's your wrap. Good luck for the week ahead Remember no daily macro briefings for me anymore, but of course you can get my daily note every morning at the European Open if you follow my Twitter handle here You can just go to the Amplify me.com Forward slash market hyphen maker for the daily newsletter as well from myself But otherwise take care stay safe and have a good week ahead