 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market's kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN Friday morning, just after 9 a.m. Eastern time, Jackson Hole Friday, the chairman speaking in exactly 54 minutes from right now. Market's getting ahead of that a bit. Positive territory, pretty remarkable. We're 100 points off of where we were, folks, just about 48 hours ago. We'll call it Wednesday overnight. Four in the morning, 41-10. We accelerate to 42-12 right now on the S&Ps. I mean, folks, we almost closed the entire gap. Look at the action last week, okay? That is last Friday, August 19th. We close out the session at about 42-30. This week, you trade down 120 points, and we're within about 17, and getting them all back, even before the chairman appears to make his speech in less than one hour from right now. Market's catching a little bit of a bid right now. We're gonna get a steady flow of news today. It should be interesting to see how the markets react, but right now, we got markets green across the board. Check out the Dow just catching a bid, man. 33,410, just since I was getting ready on the program, half hour ago, Dow catching a bid by 200 points. Half hour ago, 8.30 in the morning, coming into the action, you had the S&Ps at 41-87. You're talking about 26 points, just in the last 35 minutes or so in the NASDAQ, catching as bid as well to about 100 points to the upside. Russell, positive by six right now. Crude, easing a bit yesterday, easing a bit this morning, catching a little bit of a pop-off that acceleration to 91-60, we're at 92-78 right now, but Crude was sitting at about $94, just as recently as two hours ago. Goal contract, negative $10 at 17-61, and we jump to notes and bonds. The 10-year right now, jumping around a bit. You have a negative by three ticks, but catching a little bit of a positive bid when you look at the action, right, since the market's getting a little volatile right now. And let's jump off with the headline. I was just talking about it during the nine o'clock update, okay, that's not what we were talking about. We'll talk about that in a moment, but here's what I wanted to talk about. Even if policymakers back off from another 75 basis point hike at September's meeting, okay, that's when the market really wants to figure out first and foremost, is the Fed gonna go 50 or 75? Will the chairman reveal anything himself? We have some Fed speak from governors in terms of what they would like. Where does the chairman rest on 50 or 75? And what's happening with the economy right now? Nonetheless, as this says, even if they go to 75, quantitative tightening is scheduled to kick into its highest gear. The balance sheet runoffs monthly cap is gonna lift from $47.5 billion to a maximum of $95 billion next month. So they're gonna allow that to run off the balance sheet, $95 billion. And what this article talks about here in terms of it's just really talking about the resilience of the market and how we are back to where we were in March in terms of the looseness of financial conditions. And you don't really want that when you want tightening to get price control under, you want prices under control, okay? Financial conditions are looser than the prior to the March lift off. When you talk about where we are, and I wanna scroll down here for a little bit, high grade junk bond spreads below July's peak, obviously, but right back to where you were in March, interesting enough, okay? High yield spreads, not quite back to that level when you look at this chart in terms of where you are, okay? But keep that in mind as you ratchet forward because even if you think the pet might ease a bit, okay? They need to get the market a little bit tighter than how lucid has been. And this is something that could play a role regardless of what the chairman says coming up in less than one hour from right now. All right, jumping around some news of the morning or lack of news there of Amazon. Oh no, that's not the one I wanna talk about real quick. Well, let's just get into it in terms of the two stocks. EA, EA, okay, rumored that Amazon was gonna make a bid for, jacks up to 148.88, okay? But what happens? I'm already seeing headlines that Amazon not reported to make that and that's why you have EA crashing back down. It would be interesting, right? Amazon with their prime, trying to service the best of both worlds offering that service. Are they gonna get into gaming? Which might be the next big area in terms of Netflix has talked about getting into gaming, right? The one thing about gaming that's so difficult is Netflix when they first started talking about getting into gaming, a lot of great articles written about how hard it is to create that next big game. In movies, you have the ability actually if you have the budget most of the time to make enough bets with the right players in those bets in terms of the actors, the directors, the producers. If you have the budget and you do it enough times, anything can flop, okay? You play a probability game, you can build out some pretty good content if you spend the money. Now, whether you can monetize that to the degree necessary may be difficult, okay? But in gaming, it's a completely different story. Sometimes you have companies spending 100 million, 200 million and the game just doesn't deliver. It just doesn't resonate. It doesn't hit the point being, I remember thinking Netflix, if they really wanted to get into it, right? The play is to buy one of these companies that's already entrenched because trying to compete with some of those entrenched names that already have the following in the gaming sector, very difficult, even more so difficult than building a content library of original content for something like movies shows that Netflix has done brilliantly at to put it lightly. Pretty interesting market right now. S&P is continuing to drift upwards up about 13 points. Will be interesting to see what happens as we approach 10 o'clock to say the least. All right, jumping around to other stories out there. So this one was out yesterday. Amazon struck a deal for a hydrogen deal with a fuel cell maker plug power. Now I do own some Amazon folks in retirement, but these articles just keep popping up. It's part of the reason why I do. And you can see in terms of the long game they're playing here. Now what's always interesting is Amazon, they love getting a piece of the action because they know they're such a big player, man, that you make a deal with somebody, you're instantly gonna lift the value of that company. Something like they did with Rivian, okay? Now that market cap of their investment has risen and fallen dramatically along with Rivian. But nonetheless, you see the potential they have when they're gonna partner with somebody. So what do they do? They got 16 million shares a plug, a right to buy at $22 in change, I believe it is. $22.98, 16 million shares. For the first nine million shares, they're gonna spend $2.1 billion on plug products. If you're gonna sign a deal to pay some company $2.1 billion, and that company's about to secure a contract with one of the best retailers out there for $2 billion, why not take a piece of the action? But yeah, Amazon. Seems like how do you compete with a company like this, man, where you're just plowing into hydrogen, right? You're plowing into hydrogen for transportation and building operations starting in 2025. That's three years out. They're making deals for multi-billion dollars, only a few companies that can compete with them. And interesting when you think about how that is where the world is going, man. So that's the action you got on plug yesterday, up to 3205 at about 28. Now, interesting story about plug as we come into this first great break. We got about one minute left in the segment. When COVID hit, Robinhood was all the rage, right? And I really just wanted to see what was going on with Robinhood, right? I mean, we do a show, we had questions about it. I wanted to see how it works. So I put some money in Robinhood, created an account with Robinhood. And one of the hooks that they tell you is that when you create an account, they give you free shares. So I ended up with, I believe, one free share. It might have been two or three shares or something like that. It was one, two or three. I think it was one free share of plug is the share they gave me. And it was about $4 in change at the time, $5 in change. I had never heard of the stock. I said, ah, even $5, right? Why don't I just take my $5 free and invest in something that I'm investing in as opposed to keeping it in a plug? And that stock ran up to 75 bucks the following year. But as it retreated to a low of 18 bucks within about a few months, didn't feel so bad about pulling that money out of there. Nonetheless, plug sitting at about 30 today on their deal with Amazon yesterday. Stay tuned, folks. It's gonna be an interesting Friday. We got a lot to talk about. Be right back. VistaGold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia, the Mount Todd Gold Project. VistaGold just completed their feasibility study, resulting in a 7 million ounce gold reserve. 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We are 42 minutes away from the chairman speaking in Jackson Hole and we already have some Fed speak out there though they're talking about in the Tiger's Den out there. You have Atlanta Fed president Rafael Bostick said he's leaning towards favoring a 50 basis point hike at the Fed's next meeting, adding that the U.S. economy is starting to respond to policy but interest rates need to move forward restrictive territory. Restrictive is somewhere in the 3.5 to 3.75% range and I'm hopeful we will get there by the end of the year. He's not a voter on interest rate this year. He spoke after data showed, yes, CPI numbers in there, et cetera. Nonetheless, it's all gonna matter in 42 minutes really what the chairman has to say more than anything. All right, jumping around to some of the articles we got going on now. Interesting, I talked about Amazon, right? I mean, whoever's run the PR at that company, I mean, quite a job to have. Everybody wants to talk about Amazon. Didn't plan to do it, but this is the third Amazon story it's 9.19 in the morning, folks, but why not get them all out of the way? Now what's interesting was I had the plug story up there because that was interesting. I owned it at one point from Roma to Robin Hood. This one popped up, which is interesting. Can't believe five years ago was Amazon buying whole foods for $13.7 billion. Now, if you remember that day, folks, first of all, what happened is Amazon got a huge lift right away. They almost, I think they made more in market cap than what they paid for the company. So imagine you run a $10 million corporation, okay? And you decide to buy a company for $1 million and instantly the market cap of your company goes up to $1.1 million. No, excuse me, $11 million. Nonetheless, you make back what you spent, right? So that's how it went, but the reason why that happened is because everybody thought that Amazon was about to take over the grocery market, right? It's a very slow, low margin business, okay? Whole Foods probably making more margins on some of the items that they're selling than maybe a Walmart or a Target selling groceries. But nonetheless, getting into the grocery business a very low margin business, they thought Amazon, okay, could maybe go in, right? Even as a lost leader and take some of that market away, maybe they'd do that if they got people on prime. Because all you have to do is get them on prime. You make no money on groceries, you sell them every single thing else, okay? But then what else happens? That's not what happened at all. Everything thought it was gonna shift overnight and five years later, the one kicker of the story I wanted to get to is that they still control less than 1% of the grocery market. That's not what the market was thinking five years ago. All right, if you said Amazon is still gonna control 1%, this is a long little take that they had over there on CNBC. Let me see if I can find the actual numbers because what is interesting here is that you have Walmart I think covering 19% of that number. I'm gonna have to find it. I'll find it after the break. So I'm gonna spend the whole time looking in here. But nonetheless, not exactly how it played out. Point being as big of an Amazon bull I may be, right? Things take time, folks. Amazon, okay, at that time, gonna back things up as far as, because five years, let's put it out a monthly real quick. So it was 2017 about, you can see the run Amazon had will back it up from really 2013, 14, 15, right? 2017, here's the year. Okay, bottom in August, probably announced that news somewhere earlier, right? Maybe they're talking about the day they actually closed. Nonetheless, 2017 was a year that saw Amazon go from 38 up to about 60. The next year you continued before you had the market pullback in late 2018. But keep that in mind anytime you think the world's gonna change overnight, okay? They control everything. If anybody could have done it, better Amazon would be the company. But nonetheless, you see that five years later, and I'll get that number as we come into the opening bell, they control 1% of the market, but I can't find it. I thought those numbers would stick out to me, but I will find it after the break. Okay, what else are we getting into? Well, this one's just worth sharing, because why not? Bed Bath and Beyond, they're gonna tell you next week how they're gonna come back. If you wanna believe that one, folks, then you take that one as next week coming at you. Let's jump down the line with some of the stocks are moving. We already talked about EA, Gap, out with their numbers. Positive in the pre-market, after they beat unexpected quarterly profit, results helped by a jump in the sales of dressier clothes at Banana Republic chain as more people return to offices. So interesting how everything is playing out in a differing factor, as in the winners and the losers as societal trends, still differing, now Gap. We'll leave that on the long-term chart just for a moment, man. And you could say it's going down to where it's found support, but guess what? That's where it found support in the year 2022. Excuse me, 2022, where it found support 20 years ago in the year 2002. Look at this stock, man. Oh, God bless anybody that's been holding on to this thing forever, right? If you ever need a chart, folks, that tells you to take some profits, okay? Maybe you think Gap's gonna be around forever. You love their clothes, right? They'd be there, dividend stock in there as well. 2008, you're at 10 bucks. 2002, you're at 10 bucks. I mean, you're at 17 bucks as recently as 2016 before doubling to 35 and then crashing into COVID down to $5. And guess what? You're back from 35 to 10 bucks this morning for Gap. And they're gonna open down. There's the action on the earning. No, they're gonna open up. Okay, but 60 cents, yeah. Up 60 cents. Big number on a small number, folks, percentage-wise. But boy, you take a look at that chart. Yeah, you can be a buyer, but I wouldn't be a buyer in a whole dear of Gap in any way. All right, some of the other companies, yeah, Workday, man, how about that? They're accelerating higher in a big way. They issued an upbeat forecast. More customers adopt its human resources and finance software. We jump over to Workday for their action. They just, yeah, crushed it last night from 162 up to 184. We've given back some of those gains, but I imagine they may even pop even higher, man, as they crushed it out of the park last night. And Ulta, better than expected results for its latest quarter. Upbeat Outlook upholding a recent trend among the beauty-related companies. I talked about it yesterday, man. They have just been crushing it, Ulta. Look at that, up to 432 this morning, you put this thing back on a three-year weekly, you're gonna be opening almost at all-time highs, all-time highs to be in the makeup business. Yeah, that's an interesting one for sure. You jump to some of the retailers. I mean, it's Ulta. Their stores are just so large, man. It's gonna be interesting to see how they compete when you get something going on like a Sephora that's in a Kohl's, right? You got pop-up stores going in different retailers. There's your chart of Kohl's, man. You talk about a pullback back to 30 bucks. But I enjoy the shopping experience at Kohl's. I'll tell you, they have a lot of cheap items, tough to make money on those low margins that they're charging there. They have a lot of great kids' clothes, a lot of great kids' toys. But again, they're on the cheaper side, not made cheaply, just very affordable where they're competing on low margins with some of the biggest companies out there like Walmart, Target, et cetera. But how are they competing? They have a Sephora right in their store, which is pretty cool. Target doing some similar stuff as well on that front. All right, let's see what else we had pulled up as we come into the opening bell in a few minutes from right now. Yeah, it's all gonna be Chairman Powell today. I mean, even the headlines I had pulled up here. Bed, Bath & Beyond, Whole Foods, Amazon, Jackson Hole. We'll jump around to some of the fang stocks as we come into the opening bell right now. We jump to Amazon. A little bit of volatility for them this morning. That may be having to do with some EA action as you spike down from $137.20 to $136.20. You're up a bit. You jump over to EA as sitting at $135. Looks like the market thinks there might be some truth to that rumor still that Amazon gonna make a bid for EA. Now EA, man, you're talking about a company right now. $38 billion. Let's take a look at this thing. Yeah, holding up pretty well. They're not getting too much of a discount. I mean, you can make the case that, where are you getting? You're getting EA back at prices that you had in January of 2018? Well, holding up pretty well this year so far compared to some of the other market pullbacks we've had. We jump over to Apple. Jumping back to a short-term chart. Apple, up a bit, about $0.50. Stay tuned, folks. We've got the opening bell. We'll be right back. Time of booming inflation. We are purchasing powers eroded. There's no better place to protect your harder and money than in gold. This is the gold's flagship asset as the Monk Cod Gold Project in the Northern Territory of Australia. This is Australia's largest undeveloped gold project. We are talking a world-class gold project in a tier one mining district. This is a large-scale, low-cost project with significant existing infrastructure and a politically safe and friendly mining jurisdiction. 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We could get that speech out though in the next 30 minutes if they release it ahead of time, which they do sometimes. So keep your eyes out for that one. We have the S&P right now coming in flat at 4,200 right now. Jumping to other news out this morning. So you had some economic numbers out this morning, pretty important numbers. When you look at inflation, U.S. income spending posts sluggish gains even as inflation eases. So inflation adjusted purchases climbed 2% after flat in June purchases of goods and services adjusted for changes in prices increased 0.2% after being flat a month earlier. That's commerce data out this morning, spending on both merchandise and services advanced. The median estimate was looking for a 0.4% advance was the number, okay? Personal consumption expenditures. Now this is the one that the Fed uses for its inflation target fell 0.1% from a month earlier, the first negative print since the start of the pandemic. Pretty sure Chairman Powell likes to hear that coming up for his speech. I don't think he'll talk about that on his speech, but nonetheless, he's aware of it, man. Coming into that speech, maybe if he gets some questions, not sure if he gets questions out in Jackson Hole. That part reflected a notable drop in energy prices though. Food and costs, excuse me, food costs continued to rise from a year ago, still up 6.3%, okay? So the market wants that at 2%. Now, when you look at the core, I say the market, the Fed, excluding food and energy, PCE up 0.1% in the month, and the core measure up point, excuse me, 4.6% from a year ago, a slight deceleration from the previous month. Now, core is up 4.6, energy in there, okay? And food bumps it up to 6.3. Energy, you could see some of that easing as in not sure we're gonna get back to 120 or 130 dollars, not sure we're gonna go continue cascading lower, which has had an impact on some of the month to month numbers as crude has continued to drop. But nonetheless, folks, this is the number that you could make a case that you gotta get back to 2% that the Fed's looking at right now. Maybe they think the food issue is a supply chain issue that might sort itself out to some degree. 4.6 on the core measure for PCE from a year ago, as we have trends, maybe being our friend, doesn't seem as bad as a CPI print on a headline number that's 8.5 to see how you almost have any data that you want, right? Because there's such skews when you look at whether you're including certain things and there could be transitory factors. Oil could be a transitory spike, what's your definition of transitory, right? Nobody likes that word and I'm not saying it is, but oil spike into 130 might have been transitory because maybe it's gonna be comfortable at between 90 and $100 for the foreseeable future, okay? So maybe it's not gonna have a rising impact on inflation because it's already sitting at $90 and it's gonna be chopping around there for about two years. Because remember folks, if we were paying $100 for your average grocery bill two years ago and you're paying $115 for that grocery bill today, all the Fed wants is for that grocery bill to go up by 2% a year. It doesn't want it to go back to 100 bucks and then climb 2% a year, which is kind of a tough one to wrap your head around, right? So if you're paying 115 bucks a year, okay, the Fed's happy if your grocery bill in the next 12 months is going up to, you know what? 116, 117, 118 bucks, that's 2% inflation, right? Which is kind of hard to think about. Now wages and salaries, they're increasing, a little bit worrisome, depending on how you think about things. The headline inflation figure eased, as we just talked about, wages and salaries, up 0.8% in July, quite a rise. The most since February, spurring further concerns about inflation becoming entrenched in the economy as companies tend to pass on such costs to consumers. That is true for sure, but here's what I will say. We all know that salaries have not been keeping up with inflation, right? We got real wages, okay, decreasing, because we have CPI going up at 8.5 or 9.5%, and we have wages going up at around 5%, okay? Well, maybe wages are just playing a little bit of catch-up here, man, because I imagine they should be playing a little bit of catch-up, okay? Wages have not kept up with the level of inflation, even though we're seeing wages rise at a level we haven't seen in some time, but it doesn't matter, because we're seeing inflation we haven't seen in 40 or 50 years. So maybe that's a little bit of catch-up. It's one take you could have. 4.6% core number year over year on PCE, not that bad in my estimation. Now, CPI, as we just talked about, usually runs hotter than PCE, also decelerated in July, that was the 8.5% number we talked about. So we're at 25 minutes. We'll see how we go. We see if we get the chairman's speech ahead of time. Not sure if it's out yet, if that's a little bit of the pullback that we're getting at all. We jump around and see what they're talking about in the Tiger's Den. But nonetheless, the market, pretty interesting, they come into it flat, right at a round number of 4,200 in the S&P. Can you check out that pullback, man? The S&P 2174 to 4,808, we pull back to about the 38% line. That was about 3800 and right now we're sitting at 4,200. Pretty interesting that you're basically back to where you were April of last year prices in the S&P. You think about it, folks. October in the S&P, okay, you were at 4,260 last year. I mean, you're basically almost back to where we began the final quarter of the year and it was a heck of a final quarter, man, as you charged higher to the tune of almost 15% on the S&P. You traded from 4,260 at the end of September and closed out the year, almost 600 points higher at above 4,800 in the S&Ps. So quite a give back, all things considered though, market behaving pretty well right now when you think about those PCE numbers that we just got, 4.6%. You take out food, you take out energy over the last year, 4.6%. Still the Fed, a lot of work to do. All right, let's jump around to some of the stocks, see how they're opening this morning. EA, up 4.5% on the rumors that Amazon is going after them. We jump over to Amazon. Amazon basically flat this morning. Let's see how some of those fang stocks. Apple this morning, up a bit. Microsoft this morning, up marginally as well. Google shares this morning down 1.5%. We jump over to fan favorite Tesla. Tesla, up about three tenths. Look at that. So Tesla splits three for one yesterday, right? Oh, look at that give back, man. You tank from 300 down to 292. You're up a little bit today. We'll call it about a 30%. Interesting as they continue to split down under $300 after being dramatically in the thousand area for a while on Tesla shares. Let's see how some of the growth stocks are trading. We got ARK down a little bit. Zoom had a tough start to the week on their numbers, man. Still down today again, down 1.7%. Roku is in there as well. Roku catching a little bit of a bid. Teladoc cut a bid last, yeah, Wednesday when it was Amazon closing one of their telehealth services. They spike up to 37. They almost give it all back down another 2.2% for that equity Teladoc. You jump to the streamers, Netflix right now, up about 4.10%. Let's see how the chip stocks are doing. NVIDIA with some big numbers as in a talk about a resurgence yesterday, right? Big numbers from 163 to 177 and change. You're giving back some of that acceleration yesterday to 176.23 for NVIDIA. See how AMD is trading. Pretty similar action with NVIDIA. So those chip stocks charged higher yesterday. Let's see how Peloton is trading. Ooh, look at that Peloton down another 3.6% today. I talked about this one a lot yesterday in terms of the recurring revenue numbers that they're dealing with there. They catch a lift earlier in the week. Really interesting how they did this in terms of they release Wednesday morning ahead of their earnings that they make a deal with Amazon. They probably could have released at that time that maybe losses might be larger than the market was thinking for. And nonetheless, they lose over a billion dollars in 90 days. They are down another 3.4% today for Peloton. And yeah, I imagine they might survive but what's their evaluation gonna be and are they gonna survive? Because they're burning cash at a pretty ridiculous level right now. If you're gambling on that stock, be prepared that it could go to zero. That's all I'll say. Stay tuned folks, we'll be right back. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the Opening Call newsletter at tfnn.com. The Opening Call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the Opening Call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day. 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The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, four-side fund services, LLC. This program is brought to you by VistaGold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Back folks, we get the S&P's negative by six right now. Dow only index hanging onto some gains, single digits almost. We'll call it up by 10 points right now with 33,283 in the Dow. And how about that crew contract right now sitting at about 92 bucks below the lows of yesterday? Take a look at the move that we just had this week alone though. Down to a price of $86 on Monday. We got the highs of 95. We're sitting right at the 3A2. Interesting, that's kind of the acceleration we had on Monday into Tuesday. Okay, 7 a.m. Eastern time sitting at about 92 bucks. You give back the 3A2 sitting at about 92.11 right now for the crew contract. We jump over to gold. Gold with some volatility as well this week. We do the same thing on a vibonacci basis, not quite as clean. You go right through the 3A2, but where do you come almost to? Almost to the 618. And gold catches a little bit of a bid at Wednesday's lows right now. We'll see where that action goes. I imagine gold may have some volatility coming up as we get the chairman's speech. And if we get maybe that speech ahead of time, maybe a few minutes ahead of time, he'll release it at least. And he starts talking in 17 minutes though. So get ready folks, get those fingers ready as the market is ready to move. And we're sitting at 41.95. We put this thing on a daily, right? Just looking at the move we had. Now you take the march highs folks, you put a vibonacci number on there. Pretty close to the 618 in terms of the move we get. I'm gonna take the longer term trend off there just so you can see the vibonacci number when you put it on. Just over the 618 of that level at about 4,300 on the S&Ps. Now, if you're looking for a vibonacci number and saying, okay, we get a pullback, where are the potential pullbacks that we should be looking at buying if you are a bull on this market? Well, 3,900 might be a nice area. You have 300 points below where we're at right now, okay? But if you do, you know, if you're looking for areas folks, okay? Let's say you have some powder dry and you're looking for areas. The 3A2 is at 4,065, but on this chart, not sure that holds. Versus 3,900, okay? You're coming back to an area that was at one point resistance. It's a nice round number. Okay, that was resistance, July 8th, it was also the area of resistance on June 28th. It was also the area of support, going back to May 12th, going back to the bounce you got on May 20th in the market, correlating to the 618, all right? Maybe that's enough just to freak everybody out. You pull back 300 points in the S&Ps. But if you are, that's an area that I got on my chart, man, 3,900 in the S&Ps, that 618 area, also an area that's kinda, you can see. My dad might call that ice, right? It's an area of support and resistance, 3,900 on the S&P chart when you back things up. You can see, right, when you put that thing, right? That's where you bounce as you accelerated lower from that march acceleration and on a full pullback scale, okay? Taking a look at where we are, the full pullback, I'm gonna take that short-term one off so you can see. Kinda interesting that we got basically just below the 618 of the entire move lower and we got just above the 618 of the shorter-term trend, okay? So you had an area, the 618 of the shorter-term trend was starting at about 4,260. We just got about just in the middle of the range versus the 618 of the larger-term trend. Always interesting to keep those Fibonacci trends on you. I'm getting a little negative action as we come in. 14 minutes to the chairman, markets fade. Some of the gains it had as we come into that action, basically flat right now as oscillating around break-even for both of them. Yeah, let's jump over to crypto, man. Bitcoin up 180 bucks. Bitcoin catching a bid this morning, bouncing off 21,000. We take a look at the longer-term timeframe on Bitcoin. It's kinda choppin' around at 20,000, man, right? You look at that. We got a bid up to 25,000. Now, so interesting here, folks, is that, I'm gonna take this Fibonacci off here. Where are we sittin'? We're sittin' right where this thing went live in 2017. Okay, this chart, this line on my chart is where futures opened, folks, and they opened at a print high. Let me check that out. The opening for the December 2017 futures of Bitcoin started trading. Whoever got that first print, 20,650, they had to wait three years to get into a profit. Imagine that. The first print, okay, you had to wait three years, but nonetheless, that's where this thing's pulled back to. You blow right through that area up to 69,355. You're backin' down. Where do you find support? You find support. Maybe you find it at 20,000, excuse me, 20,000, where Bitcoin started trading on futures almost five years ago. So yeah, you might say that things are crazy, right? Bitcoin doesn't deserve to be trading at 20,000. Well, guess what, folks? I mean, you're approaching the Bitcoin's been trained at 20,000 for five years. Now, you had to ride a pullback to 3,000. You got to ride an acceleration up to 69,000 during that time. But if you're makin' a case of a pullback and a consolidation, and maybe you bounce higher, not that bad when you're gettin' Bitcoin prices five years ago, because guess what? Five years ago didn't make much sense. And it might not make much sense right now, but boy, that was a heck of an opportunity. The first time Bitcoin became shortable on a regulated exchange, okay? What do you do? You're shorted, you hold it for a year, you go from 20,000 down to 3,000, man. Quite a bang-out trade, almost too easy in hindsight. But guess what? At that time, it was not easy because it was all the rage, folks. And the thought was that it was gonna be made available for trading on a regulated exchange and that somehow that was gonna accelerate the growth even further. We jump over to Ethereum. Now, Ethereum doesn't go back as far, they only go back to 2021, but I've got it at right where I began on my chart as well. Up to 4,000, back a bit. Ethereum's at net about 1670 so far this morning. Let's jump around to some of the banks as we await the chairman. City, down about 310th percent right now. Now you got the 10-year action. We come in at 3.05 percent. In the program yesterday, we were approaching about 3.11. So we've had a little bit of higher price and lower yield coming into that, but we still come in well above 3% for the chairman's speech. And we pull up some of those banks as maybe you're easing a bit. You got, excuse me, not Colgate. City, down about 310th percent. J.P. Morgan, up about a half a percent so far this morning. Bank of America up about a half a percent. Let's see how some of the travel stocks are doing. Yeah, they've quite a rise yesterday. Look, this rise we've got this week going on for the travel stocks. Delta up from 3185 to about 34. United up today as well. Up about a half a percent. We jumped to American up a half a percent as well. Domestically jet blue up barely in the green and we jumped to Southwest. Up a little bit while barely up as little as you can be one penny. Let's jump over to the cruise ships. Carnival up about 610th percent. Talk about some volatility there. And I pulled this one up, man. If you're looking for some action in carnival, folks, you're back within the channel line and maybe you just play a bounce to the top end of this. Looking for 15, 16 bucks on Carnival. The one thing I'll say is be careful, okay? Because this equity, you could get some news overnight that it opens down $3, $4 or even BK someday. Do not invest money that you are not comfortable losing all of it if you're trading a company like Carnival, okay? Because their debt load almost unsustainable if they suffer any more lapses in business that are unforeseen. If there's one thing we've realized, folks, over the last three years, there are a lot of things that come down the line that are unforeseen and many companies, okay, aren't really planning for a worst case scenario. And, you know, you sacrifice a lot of profits when you plan for a worst case scenario by either, you know, having too much cash hitting on the balance sheet, not giving enough dividends, not giving enough stock buybacks, et cetera. That is why companies lever up in a big way because they can make the most rewards and many times the executives reap the most benefit. But we all learned, even in the last year, right? Would you think that we're sitting in August at Jackson Hole this year, talking about that we have a print of CPI at 8.5% still, even though the Fed's been jacking rates, 75 basis points, multiple meetings in a row? That would blow a lot of minds, man. So, on companies like this, okay, be aware even overnight, they could issue more shares, they could come out with a dire forecast, they could come out and say, guess what? Bankruptcies might be coming down the line. Stay tuned, folks. We've got one more segment. We'll be right back, almost 10 a.m. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger Zen, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other Tigers and Tigresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well, so it's always at your reach. 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If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We get the S&Ps right now, negative by five, Nasdaq negative by 32. That's the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow, only index currently in the green by a 10th of percent up by 37 points. So stay tuned, folks. It's gonna be an interesting day in the market to say the least. We've got our man Basil Chapman coming up next at 10 o'clock, okay? Then we have our man Steve Rhodes, live at 11. We have fast market at 12. Our man Larry Pizzavento live at one o'clock today. Dave White with the Power Trading Hour live at two, and we're gonna have a treat, folks. My dad is out today. He is, we'll be back on Tuesday. Larry's been covering, Larry will be covering his show on Monday. So Larry's doing double duty on Monday. But today, folks, you're gonna have Bessford and Jacob. They'll be talking a little bit of markets. They'll be talking a little bit of real estate as well. Bessford usually joins my dad Tom on Fridays. He's gonna be joining our man Jacob on Friday. So you'll have them coming up from three till four. Should be an interesting one, folks. Within about five minutes of the action, and we'll finish it up with a little China news out there as well as the US and China. This one's surprising. Seems like China, man. Maybe they're turning the corner as in the clamp has been clamped down and now they loosen things back up again to get the economy rocking as the US and China reach a preliminary deal in a push to avoid delistings. At one point, I thought it was just gonna be a ticking time bomb until all those companies got kicked off of the exchanges, but doesn't seem to be the case right now as you got Beijing and Washington reaching a preliminary agreement to allow American officials to review audit documents of Chinese businesses that trade in the US. A first step to avoid the delisting of 200 firms is part of the deal. China's gonna allow public company accounting oversight board inspectors PCAOB. You'll see it to access audit papers and personnel according to statements. Yeah, so maybe that's, you know, when you look at a company like Alibaba folks, I was checking this out at the break. As your acceleration, okay, you give back some of those gains. But boy, you take a look at this thing, man, and you almost gotta put it on a three-year weekly, a five-year weekly to really see the rise and fall of this company. But you check out that acceleration, man. You break out of that downtrend channel in May of this year, you pull back a bit and maybe that's a consolidation, man. Keep it on your radar because that news surprises me a bit. It looks like China, they wanna make sure their company still succeed and maybe that means being listed on US exchanges. All right, folks, we got three minutes till 10 a.m. Basil's up next. Don't miss it. Stay tuned. Have a great Friday, everybody. Thanks so much.