 A new poll conducted by Arizona Public Opinion Pulse has found that if Kyrsten Sinema chooses to seek re-election in 2024, well put simply, she's screwed. Arizona voters were asked who they'd support in three different hypothetical matchups and as you can see, Kyrsten Sinema loses in a landslide in all three head-to-heads. This is amazingly satisfying to look at. So in a matchup between her and Ruben Gallego, he beats her by 23 points in a matchup between her and Kathy Hoffman. She loses by 20 points in a matchup with Greg Stanton. Sinema loses by 22 points. Now this is interesting to me because as someone who's covered Democratic Party primaries for years on this program, one thing that is consistently true is that the incumbent always has a plethora of advantages. They usually have an advantage when it comes to name recognition, an advantage when it comes to fundraising, and an advantage is just because they're the incumbent and voters oftentimes are risk averse and they view the person who's currently there as the safest bet more often than not. So to see her have this big of a disadvantage is pretty interesting. It really goes to show how badly she's fucked up as a senator. But there's two really important caveats that I want to point out. First of all, this is a really early poll. She's not up for re-election until 2024, so by then a lot can change in 2022. The Democrats can lose control of the House and the Senate and by then most Arizonans who are dissatisfied with her now may forget how terrible she was this year in 2021. So that's one thing. Another thing, even if everything holds and she's still disliked in 2024, well if there is too many competitors going up against her and they don't consolidate before voters make their choice, she could win by a plurality. So for example, we have three people who in a head-to-head matchup, they all individually defeat her. But if each of these people remain in the race and there's let's say like 10 other people running, well if they split the vote, Kyrsten Sinema, if she hangs on to that 24-25% of Arizonans, she wins that primary. And if she wins that primary, she could be re-elected again. I mean, it's kind of a purple state. I think maybe shifting blue, that's arguable though. But it's not a foregone conclusion. And again, it's early, so I don't usually like to dwell on polls this soon. But still, I have to admit, seeing these numbers did put a smile on my face. And when we are living in a late-stage capitalist hellscape, anything that brings even a little bit of joy to my life, I want to celebrate that and I want to share it. Now there's some other portions of the poll that I do want to highlight. So overall, she's underwater with 45% of Arizonans viewing her as somewhat or very favorable and 42% viewing her as somewhat or very favorable. Now moving on to the third graphic, among all registered voters, only 26% say they prefer cinema as a senator. And here's what's interesting. Among Republicans, 75% still prefer a Republican over Kyrsten Sinema. So her being Republican light and obstructing her own party's agenda isn't leading to GOP voters seeing her as one of their own. They still don't like her. This is a message for corporate Democrats everywhere. Among independents, they're pretty evenly split, but the majority do not prefer cinema overall. And look at this. Among Democratic voters, 72% prefer a Democrat that is not cinema. Now one thing that I absolutely loathe about the Democratic Party's base is that usually they are very loyal. Even if they agree with the policies of politicians who they view as outsiders, like Bernie Sanders, for example, they're very loyal and that Democratic Party label, it unfortunately holds a lot of weight in modern American politics. And perhaps that's the result of the GOP just being insane. But in this instance, they are not loyal and they don't view Kyrsten Sinema as a Democrat that they approve of. So that's interesting. Now the best part about this poll and this story overall is that Kyrsten Sinema knows he's in trouble. She knows she's aware and her response, not necessarily directly to this poll, but the response to backlash overall leads me to believe that she actually does want to run for reelection. That was skeptical for a moment, just given her actions. But I mean, she's responding now and we saw a puff piece interview by Politico. There's local news affiliates in Arizona who are doing softball interviews with her. So there's very obviously a deliberate attempt for her to rehabilitate her image. And that tells me she's scared. So I mean, in the end, this is super early. So I want to stress that, right? So don't just assume that she's going to lose. But if the election were held today, would she lose? Yes, by a landslide. And she knows that. She knows that she needs to turn things around. The only problem is that she has a lot of time to turn things around. And this is American politics. So things change drastically from year to year. So by 2024, Arizonans may not even care. But at least for now, she fucked up and she knows she fucked up. And thankfully, Arizona voters acknowledge that not all Democrats are good Democrats. You actually have to deliver the policies that you fight for or don't fight for. More specifically, that matters. And that's encouraging for what it's worth.